NFL Week 10 Predictions: The Upside Down

A year ago, Week 10 was incredible in the NFL. It was the week that left us stunned after the election, and Sunday’s hyped games even managed to exceed the hype with Cowboys-Steelers and Seahawks-Patriots. We needed that so badly. I’m not sure I’ve enjoyed a football Sunday as much as that one in the year since.

When I look at this year’s Week 10 lineup, much like last week, I struggle to find a game to get excited for. Steelers might flirt with disaster in Indy, or it might be a blowout for the fourth year in a row (third year in a row where Andrew Luck won’t suit up for Indy). Sure, Tom Brady may not have a big game in Denver per usual, but he doesn’t have to when he’s playing against that Denver offense in the night game.

Game of the Week (?): Saints at Bills

I much rather would have preferred to see Saints-Bills flexed to SNF. At least that game is interesting on both sides of the ball. Drew Brees has dinked and dunked his way to a very efficient, but not quite as spectacular passing season. The running game has picked up since the Saints realized Adrian Peterson had no place in this offense, and rookie Alvin Kamara deserves more touches with Mark Ingram. The Bills play very opportunistic defense and get a lot of takeaways. New Orleans’ road struggles are well documented. But we also know that Buffalo struggles to manufacture scoring offense with a limited cast around Tyrod Taylor, though all eyes will be on Kelvin Benjamin in his team debut. Oh yeah, the Saints are actually playing defense too, which has really carried this impressive 6-game winning streak.

I feel like I’m leaning on old trends here, but I’m going with Buffalo at home, because I think the defense will get those turnovers that swing the game into their favor. Good day for LeSean McCoy so Tyrod doesn’t have to match score for score with Brees.

Cowboys at Falcons

Glad it looks like the Ezekiel Elliott suspension is starting. I just want that story to go away. It also presents an opportunity for Dak Prescott to gain traction in the MVP race and silence some critics that Elliott is driving their success. No, great QB play has been the biggest change in Dallas over 2015 when the passing game was terrible with Tony Romo injured. The running game was still top 10 that year, but so what? You need the QB first. I think they’ll run the ball just fine without Elliott too, but it’s about the defense keeping the score down. Dallas has allowed 30+ in every 2017 loss. I keep saying the Falcons could be 1-7 just as easily as 7-1, so they’re a dangerous team, both to opponents and themselves. I think Julio Jones rebounds from last week’s horrible drop with a big game and Atlanta gets on track at home. For Dallas, it’s not just Zeke’s suspension, but Tyron Smith is out and Dez Bryant might be gimpy.

This won’t stop anyone, especially those from the other side of Pennsylvania, from blabbering on about “Dak ain’t shit without Zeke”. Hey neanderthals, you have 280 characters now. No excuse not to add “Dak ain’t shit without Zeke, Tyron Smith, and a healthy Dez.”

(Yes, Week 11 will be lit.)

Jets at Buccaneers: REVENGE

This game is crap, but I just wanted to point out all the revenge options here. Josh McCown and Ryan Fitzpatrick have both played for the Jets and Buccaneers. Austin Seferian-Jenkins was supposed to be Tampa Bay’s TE1, but they found two better players in Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard. I guess that’s more revenge on New York’s side, but man, the big story is that Fitzpatrick has schemed his way into starting another game.

Fitzpatrick is so ready for this revenge game that he even shaved his fucking beard off. I know he went to Harvard — it’s true, if you haven’t heard — but I never hear what his major was. Alchemy? Dark arts? How else can you explain how a QB this bad can start a game 10 years in a row? I almost have to pick Tampa Bay even though I know the Jets have played better football for two months now.

2017 Week 10 Predictions

I told you this was the upside down edition, so here’s something brand new that I’ve never done in all these years. I’m going to start giving you my picks against the spread (ATS) every week in addition to the straight up (SU) picks I always deliver. I’m using Bovada’s lines on Saturday afternoon and I’m never going to bother updating them for any pre-kickoff changes. You get what you see.

2017Wk10

I know this is just going to annoy me more each week when so many spreads are determined by one play, like the late touchdown in SEA-ARI on Thursday night, but some have asked me for years to show my spread picks. I don’t have experience doing this, so we’ll just see how it goes. This is not my ideal season to start this (just look at my SU picks), but if not now, then when?

  • Week 1: 8-7
  • Week 2: 11-5
  • Week 3: 9-7
  • Week 4: 8-8
  • Week 5: 6-8
  • Week 6: 6-8
  • Week 7: 11-4
  • Week 8: 12-1
  • Week 9: 6-7
  • Season: 77-55

NFL Week 6 Predictions: Brady, Benny and the Jets

With respect to a locked-in Philip Rivers and the improving Andrew Luck, I’ve known the AFC of the last decade to be dominated by three quarterbacks: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger.

They’ve represented the AFC in 10 of the last 11 Super Bowls. On Sunday, they all face a familiar AFC foe with history well in their favor.

  • Tom Brady is 22-2 against Buffalo with 54 TD, 19 INT (100.1 PR).
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 18-1 against Cleveland with 28 TD, 13 INT (97.7 PR).

Those records are as good as it gets for a quarterback against a divisional opponent, but what does it really tell us? I find three main takeaways:

1. Despite many changes around them over the years, Brady and Roethlisberger have been two of the league’s best quarterbacks and will both be in the Hall of Fame. They play consistently well against a lot of different teams.

2. The Bills and Browns are two of the NFL’s most consistent losers. The Bills haven’t been in the playoffs since 1999 and the Browns 2.0 have one playoff season (lost to the Steelers for the third time in 2002).

3. Then there’s the makeup of these teams. Brady and Roethlisberger usually enjoy good defenses, while the Browns and Bills have struggled to find a quarterback capable of scoring many points. So these meetings turn into a lot of easy wins for Ben and Brady. Even when they don’t play well, it’s usually a win (see Week 17 last year for both).

If there was ever a time when Brady and Roethlisberger could both lose to their helpless rivals in the same season, it’s on Sunday.

Both will be on the road. Steelers-Browns is the first rematch of the 2014 season. Cleveland erased a 24-point deficit in the second half in Week 1 and nearly won in Pittsburgh. The Bills have roughed up Brady in the past, holding him under 5.6 YPA in both meetings last year (Doug Marrone’s first season as coach).  The problem is the New England running game usually stomps all over Buffalo’s poor run defense, but some are still skeptical of the offensive line this year.

These games could be very intriguing with first place in the AFC East on the line in Patriots-Bills. I’m not sold that Kyle Orton is ready to deliver against a defense that’s good at creating turnovers. In Cleveland, I think Roethlisberger will have a solid day leading the offense. Joe Haden has not been able to stop Antonio Brown in past meetings and they could pick on the rookie Justin Gilbert again. The problem is on defense. The Steelers don’t create turnovers while the Browns have been protecting the ball very well. The Browns are effective on the ground and with using play-action passing — two things that have plagued the Steelers of recent years.

I know better than to pick against the Patriots again. As for the other game, it’s just not in my nature to pick the Browns over the Steelers even if I think there’s a good chance the Browns take this game at home.

Final predictions:

Patriots 20, Bills 13

Steelers 24, Browns 21

Then there’s Peyton Manning and the Broncos against Rex Ryan’s Jets, losers of four straight. This one has the ingredients for a Denver blowout. The Jets are the 4th defense since 1940 to allow at least 12 touchdown passes and no more than one interception in the first five games of a season. How can they contend with Denver’s receiving corps, especially after Demaryius Thomas got on track with a huge game last week? Shut down Demaryius and the Broncos still have Emmanuel Sanders, who has caught 32-of-42 passes for 435 yards. His implementation into the offense has been immediately effective and highly efficient. Welker’s working his way back from a concussion and suspension. Then of course there’s Julius Thomas, who already has seven touchdowns. The Broncos can’t run the ball well, but that’s not what they’re going to rely on to beat the Jets.

Geno Smith has to start at quarterback, because we know Michael Vick isn’t the answer for any NFL team. Regardless, the Jets need a miracle to win this game to avoid a 1-5 start. I just don’t see any reasonable manner in which they pull this one off. Manning has done very well against much better Ryan defenses in the past.

  • Peyton Manning vs. Rex Ryan as Ravens DC/Jets HC (2005-10): 5-2 record, 126/197 (64%) for 1,738 yards, 8.82 YPA, 13 TD, 2 INT, 109.9 PR

One of the losses was the “Curtis Painter Game” in 2009. The second was in the last meeting, 17-16 in the 2010 AFC Wild Card, after the Jets scored on a last-second field goal.

Since 2009, 17 of the 18 teams to beat Manning scored at least 26 points. That 17-16 Jets game is the outlier. 

That’s also the last time Ryan had a winning team. To beat Manning’s Broncos, you have to score a lot of points and/or shrink the game by being efficient and effective on offense. That’s not the Jets.

Final prediction:

Broncos 34, Jets 14

NFL Week 6 Predictions

I had the Colts on Thursday, and for a change we actually had a good game I get to write about.

Winners in bold:

  • Lions at Vikings
  • Panthers at Bengals
  • Ravens at Buccaneers
  • Steelers at Browns
  • Packers at Dolphins
  • Broncos at Jets
  • Patriots at Bills
  • Jaguars at Titans
  • Chargers at Raiders
  • Cowboys at Seahawks
  • Bears at Falcons
  • Redskins at Cardinals
  • Giants at Eagles
  • 49ers at Rams

I had a lot of road teams, so I ended up changing some 50/50 picks at the last second to go with Vikings and Bengals at home.

Forget DeMarco Murray’s rarefied rushing company to start this season. Forget Russell Wilson’s rushing numbers on Monday night. I will be shocked if Marshawn Lynch isn’t the dominant player in Sunday’s big game against Dallas and its 32nd-ranked run defense. Don’t count the Cowboys out. Tony Romo led Dallas to a win in New Orleans (13-0 at the time) in 2009 and also knocked off the 9-0 Colts in 2006. Those are big wins, and yes, they really happened. This could be a good one, but who really wants to bet against Seattle at home right now?

Season Results

  • Week 1: 8-8
  • Week 2: 9-7
  • Week 3: 11-5
  • Week 4: 8-5
  • Week 5: 11-4
  • Total: 47-29

The Whistleblower No. 2 – Heath Evans and Buffalo Bills’ Run Defense

Just as I’m ready to get through some brutal preseason action, I hear Heath Evans on the NFL Network talking about RG3’s first drive against the Buffalo Bills. According to Evans, the Redskins gave the rookie no chances to succeed on the drive, which featured two vanilla runs and a third-down pass caught of bounds.

But The Whistleblower’s ears lit up when Evans exclaimed that the Buffalo Bills have “always been good at stopping the run.”

Which Buffalo Bills would that be? Now I’m not an avid Bills watcher, but even I know this team has been lousy against the run for years. In fact, they have been one of the very worst in the league at stopping the run.

Always good at stopping the run? Since 2009, no team has allowed more rushing yards or rushing touchdowns than Buffalo. Only Tampa Bay has allowed a higher YPC.

Come on Heath, even YOU ran for 56 yards on 10 carries against Buffalo in 2007 with the Patriots. That’s the third highest rushing game in your career.

Heath Evans, you used to be pretty good at being bald too. What gives with the hair?