Tag: Davante Adams

Patrick Mahomes and an NFL Franchise Quarterback’s Need for “Phase X” Weapons

Patrick Mahomes and an NFL Quarterback's Need for Next Phase Weapons
~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

Very few franchise quarterbacks exist in NFL history. I’m talking about the kind of player who can give you the better part of two decades of his career, which is what active players like Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Josh Allen (Bills), and Lamar Jackson (Ravens) can only hope to do for their teams now that they’re at or approaching 30 years old.

When they are willing to make that kind of commitment to your team, it’s only fair that you do right by them and continue finding them pieces to work with to score points, win games, and compete for Super Bowls.

Every quarterback, including the best to ever do it, needs weapons. You can get by in the short term by going cheap at the skill positions by investing in the defense and/or the offensive line and running game. But I think it’s clear that what really moves the needle in the passing game are the wide receivers, tight ends, and any good receiving backs you can find for your quarterback.

By Weapons, I don’t mean the most overrated movie of 2025. A great quarterback doesn’t need a bunch of elite weapons to succeed. He needs competent, value-added players with diverse skillsets who are not going to turn into domestic terrorists and sabotage your season with costly drops, penalties, and mistakes that lose games.

Name a great quarterback, and chances are their statistical peak coincides when their receiving corps was at its strongest too:

  • Joe Montana (1987-90) was already a 2-time champion for the 49ers, but he wasn’t an All-Pro or MVP until he had Jerry Rice, John Taylor, Roger Craig, Brent Jones, and fullback Tom Rathman operating at a high level together.
  • Peyton Manning was setting records from his rookie year, but his most efficient stretch (2003-06) came in Indy once Reggie Wayne proved to be a legitimate counterpart to Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark broke out at tight end, Edgerrin James was healthier after a 2001 ACL tear, and he had a reliable slot option like Brandon Stokley.
  • Tom Brady already helped establish a New England dynasty, but his statistical peak came in 2007-12 once the Patriots brought in a perfect complementary duo in Randy Moss and Wes Welker to run a shotgun-spread offense, then they shifted again in 2010 with the two tight ends in Rob Gronkowski and [REDACTED].

Take note that each of those quarterbacks were already established before these peaks started. They got there with what I call Phase II weapons after already completing a successful Phase 1 of their career with the pieces they started out with.

This is a natural progression that people come to expect from a great quarterback’s career. That he’ll get better with experience and start to peak around 30. But then you have some quarterbacks who flipped the script by playing their best right away after becoming the starter, shining in Phase 1 instead. That’s because their Phase 1 weapons were the strongest core they were ever given in the NFL:

  • Dan Marino was a great rookie in 1983 and a record-setting legend in 1984 for the Dolphins when he threw 48 touchdowns and over 5,000 yards. That’s when he had a young Mark Duper and Mark Clayton, the Marks Brothers. They were the best receiving duo Marino ever played with, but he was unable to keep up his torrid statistical start once they got older and Miami still couldn’t field a competent defense or running game.
  • Once Aaron Rodgers finally took over for Brett Favre in Green Bay in 2008, he got to play right away with veteran Donald Driver, breakout star Greg Jennings, and rookies Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley. They also had James Jones, giving Rodgers the deepest receiving corps in the NFL when the Packers won the Super Bowl in 2010 and he won his first MVP in 2011, the year they drafted Randall Cobb too. That’s why his peak was 2008-14, and things didn’t get back to that level until 2020.

The third quarterback who may very well belong in that group is Patrick Mahomes. He started his career with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill in their athletic prime, and he even had his best running back (Kareem Hunt) right away in 2018 before the team understandably released him in November after that video of him pushing and kicking a woman surfaced.

The Chiefs traded Hill in 2022, but with Kelce still about to have his last great season, Mahomes was still the MVP and led the league in the key stats with an all-time great season that resulted in his second Super Bowl MVP.

But sometimes you let success trick you into thinking everything is okay. Had the 2018 Chiefs still won the Super Bowl with a terrible defense under coordinator Bob Sutton, they may have ran it back instead of getting Steve Spagnuolo in 2019. With Mahomes winning a Super Bowl with JuJu Smith-Schuster as his WR1, the Chiefs went into 2023 with the likes of Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, rookie Rashee Rice, and Skyy Moore while Kelce started to look slower.

The receivers led the NFL in dropped passes in 2023 and made huge mistakes in losses to the Lions, Eagles, and Bills. But with the Chiefs going on yet another epic Super Bowl run, including three straight underdog wins, the team again felt vindicated in its approach, even drafting yet another speedy little receiver in the first round in Xavier Worthy in 2024.

But when Rice’s injuries and legal issues have led to so many missed games, then you start the 2025 season with Kelce running right into Worthy on the first dropback of the year, and you just have little trust in those guys to lead this passing game as the Chiefs essentially are starting Phase III of Mahomes’ career after he signed another record-setting extension worth over $500M that runs through the 2033 season.

Mahomes is in Year 10 and yet he’s still playing with his Phase I tight end and arguably has no wide receiver or tight end that is a lock to be there for Phase III as he recovers from a torn ACL last December.

That sounds like front office malpractice. That’s how you end up with Colin Cowherd questioning if we’ve already seen the best of Mahomes in the NFL after correctly pointing out the offensive tackle inconsistency and increased competition in the AFC West:

It’s a fair question if only because Mahomes set the bar so high right away. The rest of that video is an incoherent mess that butchers any understanding of history and QB statistics, but that’s for another time.

Let’s look at this concept of Phase X Weapons for 10 all-time quarterbacks.

  1. Franchise Quarterbacks and Their Weapons by Phase
    1. Joe Montana
    2. John Elway
    3. Dan Marino
    4. Brett Favre
    5. Peyton Manning
    6. Tom Brady
    7. Drew Brees
    8. Ben Roethlisberger
    9. Aaron Rodgers
    10. Patrick Mahomes
  2. What Will It Take for Mahomes to Get Phase III Weapons?

Franchise Quarterbacks and Their Weapons by Phase

I said franchise quarterbacks are rare, so the ten I chose to study this for (collected the data over a month ago) include Joe Montana, John Elway, Dan Marino, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, and Patrick Mahomes. That takes us back to the 1980s, and you can see a stark difference in pre-free agency and salary cap (1994) eras as teams used to keep role players a lot longer than they do today.

My only concern was what changed around the quarterback for his long-term team. It doesn’t matter here that players like Montana, Manning, Brady, Favre, and Rodgers left and got new teammates elsewhere. We’re talking about the phases they spent on the teams they put 12+ years into.

Here’s a quick guide on how the phases were created and how the players are grouped:

  • Phases are determined by stark change in era for the team and quarterback, including coaching changes and the arrival or departure of a significant player.
  • Players are not strictly grouped into phase by the year they were acquired but more of the year they became relevant.
  • Players in larger text are considered the key playmakers, the players most likely to lead the team in receiving or rushing or post 1,000 yards in a season.
  • Players in blue text are mostly for that one phase while players in red text are also a significant part of the next phase too.
  • Players in pink text left the team at some point and returned for a later phase.

Joe Montana

Phase I (1981-84): Dwight Clark was obviously the go-to receiver for a young Montana. “The Catch” kicked off a dynasty, and he also had a reliable veteran like Freddie Solomon as his second-leading receiver on the 1984 team that went 18-1 to win a second ring. Wendell Tyler rushed for 1,262 yards that year while Roger Craig showed dual-threat ability with 649 rushing yards and 675 receiving yards.

Phase II (1985-90): Their fortunes changed in the 1985 draft when they used their first-round pick on Jerry Rice, who became the GOAT. Craig, who was finally inducted into the Hall of Fame this month, had the first 1,000-yard rushing/1,000-yard receiving season in 1985, and they added John Taylor (game-winning Super Bowl touchdown vs. 88 Bengals), a good tight end in Brent Jones, and a quality receiving fullback in Tom Rathman in the next two years, creating the most loaded offense in the NFL that won two more Super Bowls in the decade to lay claim to a dynasty.

Montana won MVP in 1989 and 1990, but after he was injured in the 1990 NFC Championship Game, his time in San Francisco was effectively over, and Steve Young replaced him.

John Elway

Phase I (1983-92): This one breaks down nicely as you have John Elway with Dan Reeves as his coach for 10 years, then you have those final six seasons without Reeves. The Broncos went through a ton of players in Elway’s early career, though they did keep a lot of them for many years too. But the most notable pickup in Phase I was HOF tight end Shannon Sharpe, a seventh-round pick in 1990 and the brother of HOFer Sterling Sharpe, who was already a star wideout in Green Bay.

Phase II (1993-98): By the time Mike Shanahan returned as Denver’s head coach, the Broncos brought in a complete lineup for Elway, including Anthony Miller, Rod Smith, and running back Terrell Davis to go with Sharpe. With his Phase II weapons doing the trick, Elway finally won two Super Bowls to end his career after getting blown out three times in the 1980s. He also had most of his best statistical seasons in Phase II.

Dan Marino

Dan Marino Phase Weapons

Phase I (1983-92): Another one that breaks down easily. For a decade, Marino had the Marks Brothers, Duper and Clayton, and those were his guys with limited size but great speed. He also had a veteran WR3 in Nat Moore for his first four seasons, including both years he threw over 40 touchdowns. Finding a good running back was a career struggle for Marino in Miami, and they really didn’t have a great tight end outside of veteran Keith Jackson for a few years there in the 90s.

Phase II (1993-99): After the Marks Brothers left following the 1993 season, the Dolphins had a hard time finding their replacements. Irving Fryar (1993-95) was the best choice, though Marino tore his Achilles in that 1993 season too, and 1994 was his last great statistical year. They brought Tony Martin back in Marino’s final year in 1999, but the quarterback was washed up by then, losing his final game 62-7. Still the best quarterback to never win a Super Bowl.

Brett Favre

Phase I (1992-98): The Mike Holmgren years saw Brett Favre win three straight MVP awards in 1995-97, and that was without Sterling Sharpe on those teams after his neck injury ended his career in 1994. But with Holmgren’s West Coast offense, this was Favre’s best group of weapons with players like Antonio Freeman, Robert Brooks, and running back Dorsey Levens.

Phase II (1999-04): After Holmgren left for Seattle, Favre did lose some control of his turnovers, but he also still had some Pro Bowl and playoff seasons after the team acquired Donald Driver (late-round gem) and got running back Ahman Green from the Seahawks. They also used a first-round pick on Javon Walker in 2002, and he looked very good before a season-ending injury in 2005. The Packers wouldn’t use another first-round pick on a pass catcher until Matthew Golden in 2025.

Phase III (2005-07): The writing was on the wall for Favre in Green Bay after the team used a first-round pick in 2005 on Aaron Rodgers. But he still hung around for three more years and the introduction of new coach Mike McCarthy. Things started rough with the Packers missing the playoffs in 2005-06, but Greg Jennings was a nice add to the team at wide receiver, and Favre reached the NFC Championship Game in 2007 before going to the Jets after his first retirement didn’t stick.

Peyton Manning

Phase I (1998-02): Manning joined an Indianapolis team that already had Marshall Faulk and a promising young wideout in Marvin Harrison in 1998. They ended up trading Faulk to the Rams and drafting Edgerrin James in 1999, but Manning, Edge, and Harrison would form the Triplets modeled after the Dallas approach with Troy Aikman, Michael Irvin, and Emmitt Smith. But the Colts lacked the defense, and Harrison would play poorly in the playoffs while Edge would look tired after taking on most of the carries in the regular season. so they needed to build the rest of the offense after Tony Dungy arrived in 2002.

Phase II (2003-10): With Reggie Wayne finally emerging in Year 3 (2003) as a viable WR2 behind Harrison after he caught 147 balls the year before, Manning had his best group of weapons yet and won his first MVP. The Colts drafted Dallas Clark that year to go with Marcus Pollard, and Edge looked better after tearing his ACL in 2001. Brandon Stokely was also of great help to Manning in the slot, and by 2004, they put it all together for a record-breaking season with 49 touchdown passes and three wideouts with over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns each.

After 2005, the Colts replaced Edge with rookie Joseph Addai and won the Super Bowl in 2006. They drafted Anthony Gonzalez in the first round in 2007 as an eventual replacement for the aging Harrison, but he was often injured too. After Harrison and Dungy retired after 2008, Manning won his fourth MVP in 2009 after leading the Colts to a 14-0 start with Wayne and Clark as the leading receivers, and he made great use of Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon on the way to the Super Bowl they wouldn’t win.

After an injury-plagued 2010 for the offense, Manning himself ended up missing all of 2011 with four neck surgeries, and the Colts released him since they knew they could draft phenom Andrew Luck with the No. 1 pick in the 2012 draft.

Tom Brady

Phase I (2001-06): The pre-Spygate era Patriots were known for their dink-and-dunk passing attack, spreading defenses out in an era they just wanted to play base defense, and never knowing if it was going to be a big day for Troy Brown, Deion Branch, David Givens, or David Patten. They’d also work in defensive players on offense like Mike Vrabel at the goal line. But by 2004, they acquired Corey Dillon to spruce up the running game, and Brady threw more vertical passes in 2004-05 with Branch as his favorite receiver before they let him go to Seattle in 2006.

Phase II (2007-12): After being unhappy with the lack of weapons in 2006, the Patriots went all out in acquiring Randy Moss, Wes Welker, and Donte Stallworth in the same offseason. Brady threw 50 touchdowns, won his first MVP, and for the second time in his career, Moss helped a team set the scoring record in his first season with them. But they blew the perfect season in Super Bowl 42, and Brady tore his ACL in the first quarter of Week 1 in 2008.

While the Patriots still were successful in 2009, they weren’t nearly as scary as the first half of 2007, and early into the 2010 season, they showed they didn’t need Moss anymore and traded him. They went forward with two tight ends in Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, who were both better than their draft position suggested. Brady won his second MVP and Welker developed into the most dominant slot receiver in the game. They also brought Branch back for chemistry in 2010-12.

Phase II (2013-19): But 2013 saw Welker, Branch, and Danny Woodhead leave. Hernandez was released for being a murderer, and the Patriots had to regroup with Gronk and using Julian Edelman as their new Welker, a role he was born to play. In this phase, the Patriots ended their 9-year title drought in 2014, but it was really Gronk and Edelman, Phase II pickups, who carried the way in Phase III, going to four more Super Bowls and winning three of them in 2014-18.

The best talent the Patriots added in this time was Brandin Cooks for the 2017 season, one that Edelman missed with a torn ACL. That was Brady’s third MVP season as Gronk was still playing at an elite level. But most of the additions for the Patriots in Phase III were really good receiving backs like James White and Dion Lewis after just having Woodhead and Shane Vereen.

Drew Brees

Phase I (2006-10): After his breakout in San Diego and 2005 injury, Drew Brees wound up with Sean Payton in New Orleans where he joined a team that just drafted Reggie Bush and a hidden gem in Marques Colston, the latter becoming his most trusted wideout in his first decade. Brees also had players like Lance Moore and Pierre Thomas around him when he won his only Super Bowl in 2009.

Phase II (2011-16): What really helped the Saints take off in 2011, arguably their most impressive offense ever, was the breakout of athletic tight end Jimmy Graham. They also got the perfect little receiving back for Brees in Darren Sproles that year. They’d later add Brandin Cooks as a speedy WR1 to replace an aging Colston, and Michael Thomas was a big draft pick for them in 2016 to set up the final phase of Brees’ career.

Phase III (2017-20): The Saints had a great 2017 draft that included running back Alvin Kamara, another dynamic receiver at the position. With Thomas leading the wideouts and Kamara in the backfield, the Saints had a nice group there while just adding veterans like Ben Watson, Ted Ginn Jr., and then Emmanuel Sanders for that final season in 2020.

Ben Roethlisberger

Phase I (2004-11): Ben Roethlisberger won his first 14 starts in Pittsburgh with a veteran group of weapons, including Jerome Bettis, Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress, and Antwaan Randle El on gadget plays. He got his most trustworthy tight end in Heath Miller in Year 2, which was a Super Bowl season. He got Santonio Holmes in the 2006 draft, and that was his go-to man on the game-winning drive in Super Bowl 43 for his second ring.

Phase II (2012-18): The next phase saw Big Ben getting rid of the ball faster after taking so many hits in a Bruce Arians-coached offense all those years. They had already put the pieces in place to replace the retiring Ward by adding Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, and Emmanuel Sanders. But it was clear early that Brown was the best of that group, and they let Wallace go. They drafted Le’Veon Bell in 2013, and he was so fun to watch in 2014 before tearing his ACL in Week 17 made him a much more patient runner. But it gave Ben the first great receiving back of his career.

Martavis Bryant could have been another very talented piece to this offense if he wasn’t a nightmare off the field, but that would became the recurring theme with the “Killer B’s” era with Brown, Bell, Bryant, and Ben. Lots of missed games for various reasons, and they never got back to a Super Bowl before Brown basically forced the team to bench him for his final game in 2018 before letting him go.

Phase III (2019-21): The Steelers would go years before figuring out how to move on without Brown. Roethlisberger’s elbow surgery two games into 2019 didn’t help, though he played well with Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool in 2020 when they started 11-0 before the collapse. By the time the Steelers drafted running back Najee Harris and tight end Pat Freiermuth in 2021, it was clear Roethlisberger was at the end of his career, and that proved to be his final season.

Roethlisberger remains the only 40,000-yard passer in NFL history who won a Super Bowl for the team that drafted him and played his entire career with them.

Aaron Rodgers

Phase I (2008-14): We covered Rodgers in the intro when he came in hot right away with his best weapons and the league’s best receiving corps with Donald Driver, Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and tight end Jermichael Finley. Ryan Grant and Eddie Lacy were two of his best running backs too, and they also drafted Randall Cobb in 2011.

Phase II (2015-21): There was that decline period starting in 2015 after Nelson tore his ACL in the preseason, and young Davante Adams wasn’t quite the great player he’d become later. But Adams’ development did help the Packers get back on track in 2016, and then adding Aaron Jones at running back was a good move in 2017. But it was really the arrival of coach Matt LaFleur in 2019 that eventually got Rodgers back to MVP form in 2020-21.

Phase III (2022): Things were clearly souring with the relationship between Rodgers and the Packers, and Adams left for the Raiders in 2022. But had he stayed on, he would have had Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs as his main weapons moving forward. We got a taste of that Watson connection in 2022.

Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Phase Weapons (Chiefs)

Phase I (2017-21): As we said above, Mahomes came out swinging with 50 touchdowns and 5,000 yards in 2018 to win MVP in an offense with Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt, and arguably his best WR2 ever in Sammy Watkins too. Don’t forget that one. Adding Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle had marginal impact, and running back was always sketchy after releasing Hunt. Drafting CEH in the first round (2020) was especially a blunder.

Phase II (2022-26): I’ll hold off for now on declaring 2026 a Phase III start even though it feels like it can be. But after trading away Hill in 2022, the Chiefs have searched far and wide for wide receivers, missing often on players like Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, Marquise Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins developed the dropsies in 2024 for the Chiefs. Rashee Rice has those off-field issues and drops to correct, and Xavier Worthy looks like the reminder that you don’t draft the fast 40-time guy.

At least Mahomes could finally have his first 1,000-yard back of his career in Kenneth Walker (Super Bowl MVP) this season, but we’ll see if that works out because they have to actually evolve the offense first instead of relying on Mahomes to make chicken salad out of chicken shit.

What Will It Take for Mahomes to Get Phase III Weapons?

Patrick Mahomes and an NFL Franchise Quarterback's Need for Next Phase Weapons

The reason I am hesitant to say 2026 is the official start of Phase III for Mahomes is that I truly believe Travis Kelce and Andy Reid have to retire for the Chiefs to get there. A true shift in philosophy and leadership, and probably in personnel beyond tight end and even the very core of how they scout wide receivers.

Because how do you get to a point with the best quarterback in football where you don’t know for sure who will be his tight end and No. 1 wide receiver next season? That’s like if Marvel was making a Phase III Thor sequel and they still hadn’t introduced his f’n hammer (Mjolnir) yet.

There should be more long-term viability around Mahomes than this. By this point in their careers:

  • Montana had Jerry Rice and Roger Craig going full blast in San Francisco.
  • Manning had Wayne and Clark to eventually replace the production of Harrison in Indy.
  • Brady had Moss and Welker, and he was soon getting Gronk and another scheme change for New England to stay ahead of the curve.
  • Roethlisberger had Antonio Brown and just got Le’Veon Bell in Pittsburgh.
  • Brees just got Jimmy Graham, and his top four wide receivers were all 26-28 years old and knew their roles in New Orleans.
  • Rodgers was enjoying Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb with Davante Adams learning the ropes in Green Bay.
  • At least Elway got Shannon Sharpe in Year 8 with Denver.
  • Favre still had Antonio Freeman and Dorsey Levens, and Donald Driver proved to be a seventh-round steal in Green Bay.
  • Marino was on his last year with the Marks Brothers, but at least Miami was going to get him proven veterans like Irving Fryar, Keith Jackson, and Keith Byars – two of them made the Pro Bowl in 1993 when Marino was injured.

By this point of his career, it is troubling that Mahomes is still relying on Mr. Taylor Swift as his only noteworthy tight end. The Chiefs had a few chances already to get his replacement in the draft (Sam LaPorta and Harold Fannin Jr. stand out) and didn’t do it.

With the rising cost of wide receivers, giving someone like Rashee Rice over $30M per season sounds absolutely absurd and like setting money on fire. This is his contract year too, so they’ll have to decide something soon. Also, I’ve always been on record saying they should have drafted Ladd McConkey instead of Worthy.

Maybe the Chiefs get lucky with 2026 fifth-round pick Cyrus Allen despite the odds not being in their favor of him turning into a star. He averaged 50.5 receiving yards per game at three different colleges. That would also require playing their fifth-round rookie real snaps, which they’re reluctant to do as they already dialed back Tyquan Thornton’s snaps last year when Worthy and Rice returned despite him outplaying both and being a much better target for Mahomes in 2025.

But finding those next weapons may also not be the job for current GM Brett Veach, who has had the role since July 2017, meaning he wasn’t the one who actually pulled the trigger on the picks of Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Chris Jones, or the trade-up for Mahomes. That was John Dorsey.

Veach may need to go too because he has been up Andy Reid’s ass since 2004, dating back to the Eagles where he was on the staff before moving into a personnel role and eventually GM of the Chiefs.

If you’re wondering why the Chiefs have that weird wide receiver speed fetish/blind spot, don’t forget the same thing plagued Reid in Philadelphia where he basically needed Terrell Owens to save him in 2004 and got one great pick out of DeSean Jackson. Sound familiar? One great pick of Tyreek Hill, and the Chiefs have been chasing that high ever since, opting for short and speedy players over precise route runners, physical freaks with large catch radiuses, and basically ignoring what is working for so many other offenses in today’s NFL who have players who can beat man coverage quickly and get open without the quarterback extending the play.

But the Chiefs? Apparently they have no need or desire for a DK Metcalf or George Pickens or Tee Higgins type of receiver. Maybe they’ll sign JuJu Smith-Schuster for a third time after he bombed before the second preseason game and was cut by the Giants already.

The longer this lasts, the more likely Mahomes finishes his career with another NFL team. If you’ve watched sports for a minute, you know there’s not a single athlete in the world who is above switching teams. Michael Jordan, Wayne Gretzky, Babe Ruth, Tom Brady, Jerry Rice, Joe Montana – they all did it.

At some point, you get fed up with no 1,000-yard rushers in eight years, five Super Bowls with five different left tackles, eight left tackles since the last Super Bowl win, no 1,000-yard wide receiver since the Hill trade, and all the drama that Rice brings to the table.

At some point, you have to stabilize things around your quarterback to make him still want to be there year after year. Right now, the Chiefs are walking a dangerous path by failing to prove they can build a winner around Mahomes without relying on the pieces that were already in place when he arrived.

This was all about the weapons. We didn’t even talk about the way the pass rush looks outside of Chris Jones, who is 32 years old now. That’s another sign that the GM should probably go when Reid calls it a career.

If you’re hoping for the best from Mahomes in his 30s, you should probably root for Phase III to start as soon as possible. The fact they came one game away from a three-peat during Phase II is remarkable enough, but you can’t stay on this path and expect any more success to come out of it.

The league has caught up and moved on. When will the Chiefs?

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Divisional Round

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The 2025 NFL Divisional Round was a mixed bag of a weekend. We had an overtime classic that played out like a Greek tragedy that probably had both locker rooms crying after it was over.

We had a total rout that you could have called after the opening kickoff return for a touchdown. Spike their boombox and everything. We had a disgusting game in snowy New England on the 22nd anniversary of the 2003 AFC Championship Game that looked familiar. Then we had another game that maybe won’t reach overtime classic status because of the overtime itself, but it did offer one of the most thrilling game-tying touchdowns in defeat in NFL playoff history.

But we’re left with a final four of the Broncos, Patriots, Rams, and Seahawks. It was that close to being the top two seeds in each conference, which would have been incredibly lame for such an unpredictable season.

But in the end, it’s those AFC schedule merchants (minus QB1 in Denver) and the two best teams in the best division in the NFC West getting a rematch for the Game of the Year.

First, a recap of what could be a significant weekend in NFL history, or maybe it’s just a one-off leading to the ridiculous conclusion of Sam Darnold holding a Super Bowl MVP trophy that Donald Trump will want, or God forbid, Jarrett Stidham doing his best Nick Foles impersonation and going to the Jets for $80M to shit his pants the next few years.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Broncos: The One Where Both Teams Lost

In a game that could have catapulted Josh Allen or Bo Nix to their first Super Bowl, Saturday’s 33-30 overtime classic ended up being a great day for Drake Maye instead. A game that could have huge ramifications in the AFC going forward, it was one where I joked during it that I wish both teams could lose, and they kind of did.

While many in the media want to push this narrative that you have to “feel sorry” for Josh Allen and the Bills, I don’t. I only feel sorry for Bo Nix and the Broncos fans as he was actually the one quarterback this postseason who really played well enough to elevate his legacy. And now he can’t continue this season after breaking his ankle in overtime.

In a game where people thought you had to attack the Buffalo defense with the running game, Sean Payton put it in Bo Nix’s hands on 58-of-68 plays (85.3%), often ignoring handoffs altogether on first downs. In the end, he sure wishes he would have called a RB carry on first down instead of this funky play that I blasted right away on Twitter, not knowing the 2-yard loss would be the play that broke Nix’s ankle and ended his season for surgery.

Nix didn’t take a single sack. He tied the single-season record with his eighth game-winning drive of the year, and now it’s over as Jarrett Stidham has to start the AFC Championship Game against the Patriots, his former team, next week. Just doesn’t seem real or fair, but that’s the outcome here for Nix after he played really well.

That’s the big news out of this one, and I have all week to cover where the Broncos go from here with Stidham. But the other story is Allen and the Bills losing for the seventh-straight postseason short of the Super Bowl after it was supposed to be their year. This one felt different, didn’t it? Players were visibly crying, including a teary-eyed Allen in his post-game presser.

This team has lost some huge games during this run, but I think they’re taking this one the worst because they knew this was their year. The “no excuses” stuff in the media for Allen was never hyperbole. Without the Kansas City Chiefs, the team they were 0-4 in the playoffs against, in the playoff field, this was their best shot. If you watched the way the Patriots and Texans played on Sunday, then you know damn well this was their best shot yet at getting to that elusive Super Bowl before Allen’s 30th birthday in May.

But the league’s greatest bridesmaid has to make peace with the fact that he had his worst playoff game yet, turning it over four times on one of the most feast-or-famine performances in NFL history. The Bills are the only team in NFL history to have three touchdowns, three field goals, five turnovers, and zero punts in a game. All 11 drives were scores or turnovers, and James Cook only had one of the turnovers that weren’t charged to Allen. Otherwise he had over 100 rushing yards.

Khail Shakir had a huge YAC play, Keon Coleman made a nice touchdown, and Dalton Kincaid played very well and caught a touchdown. Again, the “no excuses” thing was not hyperbole, and for all the talk about Allen needing to be Superman, it’s a miracle you can turn the ball over five times and still have a chance to win this thing on the road. That just proves the margin for error for Allen was actually higher than some believe.

Allen did some very good things in this game and was effective enough to score 30 points. But there were key mistakes and misses that will haunt him all offseason.

  • There was the horrific decision to be aggressive with 0:16 left in the half where Allen scrambled and fumbled, gifting the Broncos 3 big points.
  • Allen’s strip-sack to start the second half led to another Denver field goal, a win for the Buffalo defense that had to defend a short field and only gave up 2 yards.
  • Allen wasted a Nix interception by throwing one of his own.
  • Leading 24-23, Allen short-hopped a bad throw to Shakir on a 3rd-and-8 with 4:14 left, and the Bills had to settle for a field goal instead of a touchdown.
  • Allen missed a very open Dawson Knox for a potential game-winning touchdown before settling for a field goal and overtime.
  • In overtime, Allen threw a very low pass to Mecole Hardman that he tried to reach down for before losing control of it. A better throw gets a big play there.
  • That set up the fateful 3rd-and-11 where Allen underthrew a deep ball that Brandin Cooks had to slow down for, which helped Ja’Quan McMillian catch up to the receiver and take the ball from him for an interception that ended up being Allen’s last play of the game.

I’ve said for the last year that Allen is a turnover waiting to happen in the playoffs. His turnover numbers have always been misleading because of all the dropped interceptions he’s had in games against Kansas City alone. He also had 12 fumbles with only 2 lost, so that was lucky too.

Guess turnover regression came in every form for the Bills in 2025 as he finally met a defense who wouldn’t drop his picks or fail to recover his fumbles. After the Bills turned it over for the fifth time, the Broncos just needed a field goal. To that point, there were only five penalties in the entire game on both teams, so they were letting them play despite Denver’s poor habits of leading the league in penalty yardage.

One of the biggest calls was a holding penalty that would have wiped out a Keon Coleman touchdown had he held onto it. But he dropped it, so that brought up fourth down on that drive earlier in the game.

But for the most part, the refs were a moot point until they became the story on Denver’s game-winning drive with 53 yards worth of penalties on Buffalo’s defense.

The first penalty, I don’t know if it was a good call or not for DPI, but I know I don’t really care since Joey Bosa was also flagged for roughing for a late hit. So, it was either 15 or 17 yards and an automatic first down either way for Denver. They ended up getting 2 extra yards out of it, so no beef there.

Then the 30-yard DPI flag on Tre’Davious White for contacting Mims early. I think that was pretty textbook DPI. Then White was flagged for throwing his helmet off right in front of a ref, a foolish penalty to take. Then Denver was able to kick the field goal and win it 33-30.

I think the final drive was officiated fairly, but let’s back up to the last Buffalo drive as that’s the one people are throwing a big stink about.

If you want to talk about a cruel twist of fate, this game could have ended 32-30 on a safety for offensive holding on Buffalo in the end zone. Denver would have won that way after a clear hold was missed at the start of the drive, and Bo Nix would be healthy and playing on Sunday to go to the Super Bowl. Alas, it was missed.

Then with the throw to Cooks, you maybe could argue McMillian got there early and we had some DPI. That might actually be the better argument than saying it was a catch, because I can’t believe the number of people this week who don’t understand why this was ruled an interception. The Calvin Johnson Rule, the “complete the process” and the “survive the ground” concepts have only been around for the last 15 years in the NFL.

This was not simultaneous possession because they never both had control of the ball at the same time, so forget that idea of tie goes to the offense. For this to be a catch by Cooks, he has to complete the process of the catch going to the ground, so his knee or shin being down while being touched is irrelevant. He’s not a runner trying to get a down by contact ruling. He’s making a diving catch and he has to survive the ground. He didn’t.

When Cooks lands and flips over, he loses control of the ball and McMillian has it firmly in his grasp and it didn’t touch the ground. That’s an interception. I like the argument of removing the defender from the picture altogether. If Cooks lands there and the ball pops out with no defender to go to, they’d rule that incomplete every time in January 2026. But since the ball was lost to a defender without it hitting the ground, it’s an interception.

I don’t see it as that controversial either. There were closer calls on other plays this year like the pick the Rams got on SNF against Cade Otton and the Bucs when his knee was down as he was trying to get control of a ball he bobbled. This was a pick.

This was a pick for Payton Wilson against the Ravens in 2024 when he took the ball away from Justice Hill who got multiple feet down, then went to the ground and lost control of the ball. Interception.

You may not like the rule or the way it’s written, but I think this clearly was an interception for Denver as Cooks lost control of the ball before he completed the process. If you watch it at real speed (see the last 7 seconds here), it’s hard to deny this was a fluid motion with McMillian emerging with a ball Cooks lost:

Deal with it, Buffalo fans, that was a pick. I also think a big stink over this is because it was thrown by Allen, who we’re told by the likes of Albert Breer and Orlovsky that we’re supposed to feel sorry for after a game like this. Had Bo Nix thrown this pick and the Bills went on to win, I imagine a far quieter outcry over the ruling on the field.

Five turnovers on the road, four from your quarterback, it just can’t happen. That’s why the Bills came up short yet again. It wasn’t the run defense. It wasn’t because Tyrell Shavers was on injured reserve. Their best players turned it over five times on offense, and two of their vets had penalties on the final drive. Allen missed multiple game-sealing throws again.

I don’t get the sense the Bills are going to fire Sean McDermott after this one with so many coach openings out there and some already filled. But I’m not sure they can sell the fans with their new stadium that running this crew back is going to result in anything different next season.

Then with Nix getting injured here, the Patriots might have the clearest path any team’s ever had to a Super Bowl, and that would be disastrous for Maye to get one so early while Allen is still seeking that elusive first Super Bowl. The Bills would have had a chance to kill that noise with another road win next week against a quarterback that’s been so shaky in these two playoff games.

Instead, Buffalo finished second in the AFC East and won one fewer playoff game than it did a year ago despite coming into 2025 as the favorite to earn the No. 1 seed because of the schedule’s advantages.

Denver and New England swooped in there and outdid them instead. If I had to pick which duo of teams wins more AFC Championship Games in the next eight years, I’d still take the Chiefs/Bills over the Broncos/Patriots even with the latter going up 1-0 this season.

But Saturday was definitely the worst playoff outcome yet for Allen and the Bills, so I understand why they are extra emotional about this one. I just wish there was more acknowledgement from fans who want to focus on a fairly clear interception that it was just one of the last mistakes in a long line from the Bills in this game.

I’m still of the belief that 13 Seconds was supposed to be the year for Allen/McDermott, and it’s just never going to happen for them as a duo with this team. As Jim Nantz awkwardly said after this one, the next time you see Josh Allen he’ll be a 30-year-old dad.

Damn, Jim. He’s also 0-7 in overtime, the first quarterback to start his career like that since Aaron Rodgers. But even Rodgers won his only Super Bowl in his third year as a starter (2010) in his second trip to the playoffs.

Allen will have to make history by being the first quarterback to reach his first Super Bowl in his 8th postseason or more. I remember when Buffalo’s greatest quarterback (Jim Kelly) was slandered for losing four straight Super Bowls. Now, Allen is starting to look like he might hold that legacy of being the greatest quarterback to never start a Super Bowl.

That’s his title going into 2026, and we’ll just have to wait and see if this loss snowballs into a New England run that they could have stopped.

Rams at Bears: A Breaking Point or a Sacrificial Lamb Served Up to Seattle Next Week?

It’s hard to say what lasting impact this game will have without seeing the trajectory of the Ben Johnson-led Bears or the outcome for the 2025 Rams this postseason. Maybe it’s the breaking point for the Rams on their way to a second Super Bowl in five years as they were pushed pretty hard in overtime here, if it should have even gone to overtime.

Maybe it’s the game that gets Caleb Williams to work more on the fundamentals and tightening up his throwing motion and hitting the routine plays better next year to go along with the spectacular plays.

Seriously, did anyone have a better highlight reel than Caleb in 2025? The touchdown throw to D.J. Moore against Cleveland that resembled The Catch but deeper, the touchdown to Moore in overtime against the Packers, the 4th-and-8 against the Packers, and then the longest 14-yard touchdown pass you’ll ever see (51.2 air yards) to tie this game up in the final minute are four plays as good as any by a quarterback this year.

But this was a strange game all around. The Bears came out hot until Rome Odunze dropped a 23-yard touchdown from Williams. Two plays later on a fourth down, his pass was intercepted by a diving Ram, and that actually netted 6 yards of field position for Chicago. Still, you’d like to see Odunze step up as WR1 and squeeze that one for a quick score to make a statement.

The Rams had a great opening drive that went 85 yards in 14 plays with Matthew Stafford in command of things. But they really struggled after that with six punts and one field goal the next seven drives as the Bears were getting home with quick pressures, and the Rams weren’t attacking their low-ranked running defense enough.

In the third quarter, Williams threw his second interception, though it could have been argued the refs missed a blow to the head on the play. The Rams had the ball at the 50 but still went three-and-out, so it didn’t have a big impact on the game as a scoreless third quarter remained 10-10 going into the fourth.

We know the fourth quarter is where the Bears have been at their best all year, but the Rams struck first with a 91-yard touchdown drive that focused on the running game again as Kyren Williams scored for the second time. They called a WR run to Puka Nacua on a big 4th-and-1 before the touchdown, shades of the Cooper Kupp play on their game-winning drive in Super Bowl 56.

Also on this go-ahead drive, there was a 12-yard pass to Davante Adams that people are trying to compare to the Brandin Cooks play in Denver. It’s a silly comparison from people who are reaching.

This is not the same play at all. Adams caught the ball in a crowd, established control, then was held up and tackled. As he was going down the ground with the catch already secured, his knee hit the ground, then he was stripped of the ball. But since he already completed the catch, the play is dead the moment his knee hit the ground. It was not a diving catch where he had to survive going to the ground like Cooks did (and did not succeed in doing). Not the same play. Move on.

To answer the touchdown, the Bears drove to the LA 2, but Williams’ fourth-down pass was batted down with 3:03 left. I might have to look into this more if the Rams keep advancing, but I’ve always said Sean McVay is incredibly conservative in the four-minute offense, so it didn’t surprise me the Bears got the ball back in a 17-10 game. I’m just surprised at how conservative the Rams were, because they chose to run Williams five times in a row. He screwed up the one by going out of bounds instead of sliding down.

But with 2:07 left and the Bears down to one timeout, McVay still called a run on third-and-10, which was silly since a pass and punt could still use up the two-minute warning, and the pass might have even given them a first down that could have come very close to wrapping this one up. Instead, Williams got the ball at the 50 with 1:50 left after a poor punt.

He didn’t necessarily make the drive look easy, but he’s been comfortable in the last 2:00 all season, and on fourth-and-4 at the 14, he ran all the way back to his 40 before throwing a pass up to the end zone where either Cole Kmet or one defensive back could get it. Kmet won the battle with ease as the DB misplayed the ball, and the Bears had their clutch touchdown with 0:18 left on an insane play by Williams.

With 18 seconds left, do you go for two? It’s the call that will probably haunt Ben Johnson all offseason, and I imagine next time he’ll go into a playoff game making sure he has the perfect 2PC call. But allegedly he didn’t go for it because he didn’t like the team’s execution in short yardage all night. Fair enough.

I see the argument both ways, going for it and playing for overtime. In the playoffs, overtime really isn’t bad at all anymore since you can about guarantee you’ll have a possession and it won’t be pressed for time either. Johnson already surprised me once this year when he didn’t go for 2 against Green Bay in Week 16 and won in overtime as we know he comes from that aggressive Dan Campbell coaching tree in Detroit.

With 18 seconds left, that’s definitely the right amount of time to justify going for the win. You could also argue that the Rams were shook by such a spectacular touchdown that going for the kill may have been the right call.

Alas, they went to overtime where the Bears won the toss, and I think they were correct to receive. Again, put the shellshocked Rams on the field first, and give Caleb four-down football with that extra margin for error, knowing exactly what he needs. Love that decision and would do it every time here.

It almost worked out too. Predictably, the Rams got conservative and called three straight runs (that’s 10 in a row going back to the fourth quarter) and went three-and-out after their 3rd-and-1 run was stuffed. Those short-yardage failures are something I’ve been highlighting for several weeks for the Rams this season, and between blowing that run and the lead, it looked like their weaknesses were going to eliminate them.

The Bears just needed a field goal for their eighth game-winning drive of the season (tie the NFL record) while the Rams had already allowed five GWD this season. But after a Williams sneak on a fourth down to convert at midfield, things went awry on a 2nd-and-8 at the LA 48. D.J. Moore had a poor effort on a route, and Williams was intercepted by Curl on a miscommunication that really isn’t on the QB or at least not entirely. Bad spot to be off like that.

Just like the Bills on Saturday, the team that just had to get a field goal to win the game threw a pick and never saw the ball again. Stafford finally got involved again with three completions for 43 yards, including a great grab by Adams and a big chain mover on third down to Puka (who else?).

Beyond blowing leads and short-yardage runs, the field goal unit is my other often cited flaw with the 2025 Rams. But rookie kicker Harrison Mevis had his team’s back with a 42-yard kick that was good enough to win this one at 20-17.

It was definitely a scare from the Bears, and who knows what happens had they gone for 2 against these Rams a la Seattle in Week 16. But the Rams escaped with the win, and now we’ll see if they can avenge that loss in Seattle. Barring a Darnold meltdown, it’s probably not going to happen if they play like this next Sunday night.

Texans at Patriots: It’s the Patriot Way

It’s actually fitting this game took place 22 years to the date of the 2003 AFC Championship Game, the game that ruined quarterback discourse for the rest of time. The game where Peyton Manning threw four interceptions and Tom Brady tried to match him bar for bar against a much inferior defense.

It’s not that Sunday’s game was expected to be a quarterback duel with two defenses on all-time runs of not allowing yards and neither gave up a touchdown in wins last week. It’s not like anyone has C.J. Stroud in MVP talks like Drake Maye, and the consensus was Stroud just needed to be a guy who doesn’t screw things up with his defense.

Well, that was always going to be harder to do without Nico Collins, who was out with a concussion. It got worse when tight end Dalton Schultz, the team’s second-leading receiver in yards (first in catches too), left the game early with an injury, putting Stroud in a familiar position of having limited weapons in the postseason after two years of injuries to Tank Dell (twice) and Stefon Diggs (2024).

But the Texans were supposed to have better depth this year. That didn’t really show up, and neither did their hands on the road as the offense looked like a “dome team” with some costly drops on late downs from Christian Kirk (early) and Cade Stover (late).

But the fact is Stroud was an absolute mess in this game, he threw four interceptions before halftime, including a pick-six I predicted, and there was a stretch where every pass looked like a prayer. Someone just hoping to get rid of the ball with no care where it went.

I’m actually shocked Davis Mills didn’t enter the game to start the second half, and maybe he should have. Mills has as many comeback wins this year as Stroud has in three seasons for Houston. I would have told him he can’t settle down, he’s not seeing the field well in the snow, and we’re going to give Mills a shot. Not that I’d expect it’d help the protection that looked outmatched, and the running game stunk (20 carries for 37 yards). But sometimes you see better protection when a backup comes in as if the linemen know they need to do better for that guy. Sometimes that backup just gets rid of the ball better or more accurately too.

Stroud was awful, and while he was better in the second half, it still didn’t make up for the damage caused early. However, a Woody Marks fumble in the red zone after he lost his shoe was another callback to the 2003 AFC-CG when Marvin Harrison fumbled in the red zone when it finally looked like the Colts had something going.

Despite the five turnovers by Houston, the only one the Patriots got any points off of was the pick-six by Marcus Jones. That’s because the Houston defense did its job by making sure Drake Maye looked pretty awful too. Maye had five sacks as Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson caused about as much havoc as they could on the road. They forced Maye to fumble four times, recovered two of them, and the other two were right there for grabs as well. Could have easily been a 5-turnover day for Maye, who also threw a Hail Mary interception to end the half that didn’t matter.

Still, that’s why it’s so much like the 2003 AFC-CG in that Maye tried his best to match Stroud turnover for turnover, but Houston didn’t capitalize enough.

But Maye looked shellshocked by the pass rush, not unlike what he did against a lesser Chargers defense a week earlier. He was just fortunate his defense was stellar as neither team had 250 yards of offense. The Patriots were also just 3-of-14 on third down.

The turnovers meant each team had 9 possessions by halftime, and the Patriots finished the day with 21 offensive points on a whopping 14 drives. Maye had three touchdown passes, but those plays said more about the receivers helping him out with a good YAC play by Pop Douglas, a very strong catch by Stefon Diggs to hang onto it in traffic in the end zone, then a brilliant one-handed catch for 32 yards by Boutte to put the Patriots up 28-16, the end of the scoring.

The unheralded play of the game happened three plays before that Boutte catch. The Texans had a chance to get the ball back in a 21-16 game in the fourth quarter with the Patriots facing a 3rd-and-8. But Derek Stingley Jr. was flagged correctly for defensive pass interference for 17 yards, and then he was beat on the touchdown too, so a rough series for him and the defense when they had a chance to set up a 4QC opportunity.

But be honest. Do you think Stroud, who is 2-10 at such games, would have capitalized? When the Texans later had the ball in a 12-point game, they punted on 4th-and-18 with 4:17 left. I know no one wants to go for it in that spot, but you at least give yourself a chance to get a penalty to convert or something. With only one timeout left, punting is such a cowardly move, but that’s what Ryans did.

Does he not realize you could end up forcing them to kick a field goal after three snaps and it’s still a 31-16 game? Two-score game. But Ryans did the cowardly punt, and the Texans had 1:45 left when they got the ball back. Just enough time for another Stroud prayer on 4th down to not be answered deep by Hutchinson on a pass broken up by linebacker Robert Spillane.

The Patriots put on a defensive masterclass against a quarterback in over his head. I’m honestly not sure Collins and Schutlz playing the whole game would have made a huge difference for Stroud, who became the first quarterback ever to throw 5 picks and fumble at least 5 times in the same postseason. He did it in just two games.

Stroud was awful, and ESPN’s Troy Aikman had some scathing commentary about how Stroud has been chasing his rookie success the last two years, and it’s just not there for whatever reason.

The Texans are going to have a difficult decision to make when it comes to extending him. This was their opportunity for a Super Bowl, or at least their first AFC Championship Game with this defense. If only Stroud didn’t screw it up.

He did though, and it led to a loss on a day where Maye didn’t show up either with his best stuff.

49ers at Seahawks: Just Keep Hitting Snooze for 3 Hours

They delayed this game’s start by 20 minutes for the conclusion of Bills-Broncos, and even then I missed the live airing of the competitive portion of the game, which was the opening kickoff return. By the time I switched over to FOX, Rashid Shaheed had taken the kickoff back 95 yards for a touchdown and the rout was on.

This isn’t the first time I watched a dramatic playoff game end at Mile High before having a hard time ever getting into the later game that involved the 49ers (Colin Kaeperick’s 176-yard rushing night against the Packers after the Ravens beat Denver in double overtime in the 2012 divisional round).

This one was like 2015 when we watched the Broncos beat the Patriots for the last round of Manning vs. Brady before the Panthers stunk up the joint in the NFC Championship Game at Carolina. That was another game I had high hopes for and was backing Arizona and Carson Palmer only to be disappointed with a dud.

That’s what this was: A massive dud. Seattle played well but the 49ers did almost no favors for themselves as the battered underdog. They gave up that kick return touchdown, then after getting good field position following a landing zone rule quirk, they still wasted it by calling the worst play they possibly could on a 4th-and-1. Seriously, option with Kyle Juszczyk going wide against a fast defense? You can’t be serious with 1 yard to go.

Right from Brock Purdy’s first dropback and incompletion you could see it was going to be a nightmare up front, but the 49ers killed themselves with three turnover on downs and two turnovers. The loss of tight end George Kittle (Achilles) unfortunately had an impact. Backup Jake Tonges fumbled on the second drive near midfield, the third big mistake of the night for the 49ers, and that led to a 42-yard touchdown drive for the Seahawks and a quick 17-0 lead.

The last time this was a game was late in the second quarter. Ricky Pearsall, who missed the last two weeks, had a shot at a 3rd-and-6 catch where if he caught it, the 49ers had a shot to get a touchdown and make this 17-10 getting near halftime. Instead, he didn’t come up with the ball and the 49ers settled for their second field goal to make it 17-6.

That’s when the Seahawks put together maybe their best offensive drive, a full 80 yards this time, as they mostly relied on the run with Sam Darnold suffering that oblique injury on Thursday. But that wasn’t a big deal with the early lead and the way the 49ers struggled in the trenches. Darnold didn’t even have 100 passing yards by the time it was 27-6 in the third quarter. It didn’t matter that the Seahawks still had some red-zone issues in finishing drives with touchdowns.

I don’t think Brock Purdy played that poorly on an impossible night. He even led the team with 37 rushing yards, a bad sign. His first turnover came in the third quarter when it was 27-6, and again it was a play involving a backup tight end (Luke Farrell), who made a pretty weak effort on the route and allowed the defender to cut him off for the pick and another short field. Soon it was 34-6 and rout was in full effect.

Jauan Jennings couldn’t come down with a great 3rd-down pass by Purdy, so the 49ers ended up turning it over on downs with a 4th-down miss, leading to yet another short field (37 yards) for a Seattle touchdown.

Down 41-6, Purdy was strip-sacked with 9:12 left before both teams played backups to run the clock out. The 49ers didn’t have a single play gain 20 yards and only scored 9 points in the last 8 quarters against Seattle in January.

But when they’re doing shit like this, is there any wonder they played so poorly?

I’ll have to eat crow on the 49ers stealing this one, but now we’ll see if the Seahawks can take care of the Rams with the Super Bowl on the line. Hell, I think the 2025 NFC Championship Game is the real Super Bowl this year.

Next week: I’m glad the little AFC appetizer game is on first, then we can make room for the showdown between the Rams and Seahawks that has little chance of living up to the Week 16 meeting. But with a record 14 lead changes in the fourth quarter this postseason, maybe we’ve got one great game left here before a Super Bowl that could be less than stellar.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 15

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

There were 13 games on Sunday’s NFL slate, but if you like close games, this wasn’t a good day for you. Only four games had a comeback opportunity (five for the week including TNF), and only four games were decided by fewer than 10 points.

You know it’s a rough week for close games when even the Chiefs led by 14+ points for the final 34:46. But Week 15 did still feel like a pivotal one for the Super Bowl LIX chase:

  • The Lions showed there’s no reason to trust their defense to get stops as they deal with too many injuries on that side of the ball.
  • The Bills show they might be impossible to stop in the Superdome in February if they can survive the AFC playoffs in likely wintry conditions.
  • The Chiefs have some real concerns with Patrick Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain and losing control of the top seed with a much tougher remaining schedule than Buffalo.
  • The Eagles look like a well-rounded team now that the passing game showed up against the Steelers.

Those four teams are topping the latest Super Bowl odds, but you can’t discount a run by the Ravens or Packers. I might even add the Vikings in there, but let’s see what happens Monday night first on that front. With so many comfortable wins already, maybe an upset could be in store for Monday night.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Lions: Deja Vu Role Reversal  

No matter what preconceived notions you had about Detroit losing this game, you can likely discard them. They didn’t lose because of Jared Goff, who was awesome with 494 yards, 5 touchdowns, and no turnovers on a day where his running backs were held to 35 yards on 13 carries. In fact, the game’s only turnover was a fumble by Amon-Ra St. Brown that set up the Bills on a short field.

They also didn’t lose 48-42 because of whacky Dan Campbell decisions. The Lions were 3-for-3 on fourth downs, and they even let their kicker (Jake Bates) try a 52-yard field goal before halftime. He missed on the type of kick he’s been making for them this year. That miss and the fumble hurt on a day where the Lions had little margin for error.

The Lions lost because their injury-ravaged defense had no answers for stopping the Bills, who stayed hot from last week, and Campbell knew he couldn’t rely on that unit to get stops in this one after a bad start with the Bills taking a 14-0 lead, pouncing early on big pass plays to their backup running backs.

In many ways, it was déjà vu to last week for Buffalo in their 44-42 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams, except this time they were the team that led wire-to-wire while the Lions were always stuck playing catch up. Both teams piled up over 520 yards of offense, but the Bills always made sure the Lions were behind 2-or-3 scores for all six of their second-half possessions, much like the Bills faced last week in LA. Just no chance of tying or taking the lead late.

But it did get a little interesting when the Bills had to settle for a field goal to make it 48-35 with 2:03 left. The Lions saved their timeouts and they were able to score a touchdown with 12 seconds and two timeouts left. They were very close to recovering an onside kick that could have made this a Hail Mary finish, but the Bills ultimately came out of the pile with the ball to end it.

Speaking of onside kicks, that seems to be the decision that Campbell is getting shredded for when he tried one with 12 minutes left in a 38-28 game. The Bills recovered and Mack Hollins was actually able to return it to the Detroit 5, setting up another easy touchdown drive for the Bills to go up 45-28 one play later.

But I get the call from Campbell. He knows how his defense has been playing these last few weeks, especially in the second half of games when their limited depth is greatly tested and hasn’t been able to get stops. The Lions also lost more defenders to injury in this game. I think Campbell figured he’d give stealing a possession with an onside kick recovery a try, and if they didn’t get it, at least Buffalo would score quickly than if you gave them a longer field. I don’t mind the call. I just think people are having a more negative reaction because the result was a return to the 5-yard line, which rarely happens on an onside kick.

I already get the sense that Campbell is going to face some harsh criticism in the playoffs even though his defense isn’t giving him much of a choice to trust them to get a stop.

In ending Kansas City’s 15-game winning streak and Detroit’s 11-game winning streak, that’s probably going to keep the Bills as the favorites for the Super Bowl going into the playoffs since they have a cakewalk schedule these last three weeks and every other contender doesn’t. Actually, I’m seeing Bills (+425), Lions (+440), Eagles (+450), and Chiefs (+475) at BetOnline, so it’s one of the closest 4-way races you’ll ever see. But that’s sure to change if the Bills can land the No. 1 seed, which gets a boost from the Mahomes injury.

But there’s no way I’m crowning Buffalo in Week 15. Scoring 42+ points in back-to-back road games is cool, but they’ve also just allowed 42+ points in back-to-back road games too. Of the 309 teams to allow 40 points in multiple games (consecutive or not) in the Super Bowl era (1966-2023), just one of them won the Super Bowl that year. It was the 2007 Giants.

The Bills have killed some epic winning streaks themselves this season. Maybe they even get a chance to end a 15-game winning streak for the Eagles in the Super Bowl in a rematch of 2023’s best regular-season game. That looks a bit more likely now than a Bills-Lions rematch in February with the state of the defense for Detroit.

We’ll see what Minnesota does Monday night against the Bears, but the NFC North is far from locked up for Detroit too. It still has the No. 1 seed lead over the Eagles, but the remaining schedule favors the Eagles.

Chiefs at Browns: Turnover Regression

I posted a lot of stats this week about Kansas City’s historic success despite only having 10 takeaways on the season. Part of the reason I did that is because I knew they were facing Jameis Winston and the Browns this week, and everyone knows he can be charitable with the ball.

But it’s also a matter of regression. Either the Chiefs are going to start taking the ball away more often, or they might start losing games this season. Well, the turnover regression started early on Sunday, but the Browns blew it away with turning the ball over six times in a 21-7 loss.

The special teams got it started with a forced fumble on a punt return, and that’s even after the Browns cut Kadarius Toney this week. Then Jameis Winston was intercepted in the end zone, the first of three Jameis picks before he was benched for DTR, who also threw a pick. Hell, even Trent McDuffie got the first pick of his NFL career after playing roughly 3,000 snaps for the Chiefs. Poor Nick Chubb broke his foot and lost a fumble. Just a miserable day for the Browns as the Chiefs got a huge boost in takeaways.

It’s the first Kansas City game since the wild card win against Miami in frigid temperatures where the score wasn’t within one possession at some point in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs led 21-7 for the final 18 minutes. See what happens when you get takeaways? You lead 21-0 and win 21-7 without all the drama.

But there was drama of course as Patrick Mahomes did not finish this game due to a high-ankle sprain. It was a rough second half for Mahomes with 8 straight incompletions at one point, but one has to wonder why Andy Reid would still be throwing the ball so much with a rare big lead. The Chiefs didn’t give up any sacks in this game with guard Joe Thuney getting the start at left tackle, but there were 11 quarterback hits, which should be one of the highest numbers in a game in Mahomes’ career. Letting him get hit repeatedly with a multi-touchdown lead looked quite dumb.

Everything went downhill after DeAndre Hopkins dropped a great pass on third-and-long for the third game in a row. The Chiefs kept throwing incompletions soon after that, and while their turnover regression was fantastic, they also saw their 3rd-down success rate plummet in this game as they were just 7-of-18 (38.9%) after being over 52% this year.

Mahomes’ injury actually happened on a 4th-and-3 at the Cleveland 39 with 8:01 left. Man, for all the times where you curse at Andy Reid for punting, maybe that’s a spot where you actually take a 5-yard penalty and punt and let your defense do its job, or just wait for Cleveland to turn it over again with a backup quarterback entering the game.

A lot of things have been poorly managed with the Chiefs lately, but now we’ll see how they handle this schedule crunch with games coming up on Saturday (Texans) and next Wednesday (at Steelers) while there is little margin for error if the Chiefs (13-1) want to hold off Buffalo (11-2) for the No. 1 seed that they seemingly need if they want the three-peat to happen.

But it could come down to Carson Wentz against an elite pass rush from the Texans this Saturday. Good going, Andy.

Steelers at Eagles: As Expected

Not a ton to say here because I really did expect the Eagles to win by 14+ points as the game just wasn’t that important for the Steelers, who can win the AFC North with a win in Baltimore on Saturday. Everything was stacked against them here with George Pickens still out, the Eagles being a really strong opponent with an elite defense, and you had to figure Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown would connect after grumblings in the building about their passing game. The last time they played in 2022, Hurts and Brown torched this defense, and the results Sunday weren’t far off.

Hurts and Brown were outstanding early on, and to the Steelers’ credit, they fought back to make it a 17-13 game at halftime. But what a second half for ball control for the Eagles. They had three very long drives, which helped limit the Steelers to 11 offensive snaps in the second half on just two drives. You never see that in any half.

The Eagles couldn’t be stopped, and yeah, the Steelers helped with roughing the long snapper on a field goal to extend one drive, then Najee Harris fumbled a pitch on their last real chance of tying the game.

But the Tush Push was too much to deal with, and the Eagles just kept converting crucial downs. However, Mike Tomlin deserves criticism for punting on 4th-and-7 at the Philly 46 in a 27-13 game with 10:40 left. Yeah, that’s not a great situation to be in, but you’re already down 2 touchdowns and can’t get them off the field. Just go for it.

He punted, and the Eagles went on an epic 21-play drive that consumed the final 10:29 on the clock. They converted five times on third or fourth down, a perfect way to close out a game.

I didn’t expect much from the Steelers in this game. But after an encouraging first half by the defense hanging in there, it was disappointing to see how badly they were dominated in the second half. It doesn’t paint a good picture for the rest of the season with the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals to come before the playoffs.

Dolphins at Texans: The Streak Continues (Or Begins Anew)

I know C.J. Stroud and the Texans haven’t been living up to the hype I started giving them in February. But they are the AFC South champs again, and they were home for this game, which is frankly all I needed to bet on them to beat the Miami Dolphins, one of the worst teams at beating playoff teams on the road in the Mike McDaniel era.

The Dolphins had lost every game in that scenario going back to their last win in such a game in September 2022 in Baltimore. They had lost 10 straight such games going into this season before losing in Seattle, losing in Buffalo, losing in Green Bay, and losing in Houston. However, they did win at the Rams in Week 10, and the Rams might win the NFC West instead of Seattle. So, it’s possible the streak ended at 11 games with the LA win, but it’s likely picked back up with losses in Green Bay and Houston.

I belabor this point on Miami because once you see it, it makes it really hard to ever trust them to do anything important. So, that’s why I don’t really put much value in what completion percentage Tua Tagovailoa has, or what he does against a Jets team that can’t stop blowing leads this year like last week. Show me something in a big game, and sure enough, Tagovailoa had four turnovers in this winnable game, including two picks in a fourth quarter that never changed on the scoreboard with a 20-12 final.

It’s not like Stroud was fantastic in this game. He threw 2 touchdowns to Nico Collins, who somehow only had 17 yards on 4 catches in the game. Stroud took another 4 sacks and Joe Mixon (12 carries for 23 yards) was shut down again.

This was on Tua to deliver, and he failed miserably – let’s not miss that Tyreek Hill was bad too – in another fourth quarter. Few things are this reliably predictable in the NFL like the Dolphins facing a good team on the road.

Colts at Broncos: The Signature Game for the Anthony Richardson Era?

This might be the game where people jumped off the hope train for the Shane Steichen-Anthony Richardson era for the Colts (6-8). In truth, it was neither guy who was to blame for the turning point in this loss in Denver. Jonathan Taylor looked like he scored a 41-yard touchdown run that was going to give the Colts a 20-7 lead in the third quarter, which felt like it could have been insurmountable with how badly rookie Bo Nix was playing on a 3-pick day.

But Taylor made the dumbest play in football to trigger the only situation where I don’t mind one of the dumbest rules in football being enforced. He dropped the ball prematurely before he broke the plane, resulting in a touchback and Denver’s ball. Huge mistake.

While plenty more mistakes were made by the Colts, that took a clear touchdown off the board. Denver finally took the lead in the fourth quarter on a 15-yard touchdown drive after a long punt return by Mims set them up. Then Steichen and Adonai Mitchell made the play that is the new “fake punt against the Patriots” for this era of the Colts:

https://twitter.com/YahooSports/status/1868446322149527559

Always love a play that makes me literally laugh out loud. With Mitchell’s slow release on the pitch back, you could just see this one coming from a mile away before Nik Bonitto returned it 50 yards for a crushing touchdown to make it 24-13. Richardson, who was 17-of-38 with two picks, wasn’t overcoming that deficit, and it only grew more to a 31-13 final.

That’s just a sobering finish to a game and basically the season. Now you don’t know if you can trust your coach, your quarterback, and apparently not your high draft pick on a receiver this year for 2025.

I enjoyed my years of Colts fandom while it lasted (2002-2019), but I’m glad I gave up on it before this era came along. I couldn’t stomach this level of incompetency.

Packers at Seahawks: Seattle Is in Trouble

The Seahawks (8-6) were already a slight underdog to the Rams when it came to winning the NFC West going into the weekend. When you looked at the remaining schedules, it made sense with the Rams having easier games and home field for the Week 18 meeting.

But the Seahawks also didn’t look like a real contender on Sunday night as the Packers were walking all over them in a 23-6 game. It only got mildly interesting when a Josh Jacobs fumble led to a Seattle touchdown drive with backup Sam Howell in the game for an injured Geno Smith, another big problem for Seattle to overcome the rest of the season.

But the Packers eventually put things away with another touchdown pass to Romeo Doubs, who caught both of Jordan Love’s touchdowns. The Packers are 10-4 and might be the best third-place team you’ll ever see.

As for Seattle, this defense’s performance is so clearly dependent on who they’re playing. With the Vikings and Rams still to come, that’s not encouraging.

Buccaneers at Chargers: Baker Doesn’t Care Where Your Scoring Defense Ranks

Even without Chris Godwin and a bad habit for turnovers, the Buccaneers are one of the most lethal offenses in the league this year. Even though the Chargers were still the No. 1 scoring defense, Tampa dropped 40 points in their building with 506 yards of offense, outgaining the Chargers by a full 300 yards in a 40-17 rout that was close well into the third quarter.

But Mike Evans took over with two touchdown catches in the third quarter as he’s still coming for that 1,000-yard streak despite missing games to injury, and Justin Herbert threw his first pick since September.

Tampa Bay (8-6) might actually live up to that “team you don’t want to face in the playoffs” narrative that gets forced on someone each year. As for the Chargers, I’m not going to call the defense a fraud, but it’s not a good sign when your 3 worst games are at home against the Bengals, Ravens, and Buccaneers, probably the three best offenses they’ve played this year. They just can’t keep up with teams like that given the lack of weapons around Herbert.

Ravens at Giants: The Giant Spread Goes Baltimore’s Way

We got an early sense of whether or not Lamar Jackson was being truthful about running more the rest of the season. He took off for 15 yards on the second snap from scrimmage, but this time it ended in a fumble. The Ravens declined to go for a 4th-and-1 at midfield and punted on the next drive, and you started to wonder if this biggest spread of the season (Ravens -16.5) was going to be a flop with the Ravens a little rusty after the bye week.

But they got it done eventually. While Jackson finished with 65 rushing yards, it was not a running demolition against one of the worst run defenses in the league as Derrick Henry finished with 14 carries for 67 yards and no touchdowns again. Instead, Jackson was 21-of-25 for 290 yards and 5 touchdowns, just missing out on another perfect passer rating game.

The passing game came easy for the Ravens in this one, and the same can’t be said (ever?) for the Giants, who started Tommy DeVito and ended with Tim Boyle after DeVito suffered a concussion. That helped the spread work out as Boyle missed some scoring opportunities in the 35-14 loss.

But this was supposed to be a rout. Let’s see what the Ravens do against the Steelers when the division title can be won by Pittsburgh this Saturday in Baltimore. The Ravens are already looking like a considerable favorite for that one, but we know those games have been going Pittsburgh’s way for years.

Bengals at Titans: Turnover Fest Goes Cincinnati’s Way in Mentor vs. Mentee Matchup

On the plus side, Joe Burrow threw two picks in this game, including one on the first drive, so we shouldn’t have to hear the Oppression Olympics working overtime to prop up his season for having a poor record despite a certain TD:INT ratio. He’s up to eight picks this season and also lost another fumble in this game.

But it didn’t matter as the Titans went on to turn it over six times, including a pick-six that got Will Levis immediately benched for Mason Rudolph after it was Levis’ fourth turnover. Pretty brutal stuff against this defense. The Bengals led by double digits the entire second half, one of their most comfortable wins all season.

I guess the Titans will go back to Levis next week, but they’re just playing out the schedule with little optimism for 2025. The Bengals (6-8) got some help with the Colts and Dolphins losing, or did they? The Bengals still rank behind both teams in the playoff standings, and it might have been beneficial if the Broncos lost to Indy to facilitate a collapse there while you can count on the Colts to keep losing other games.

Well, I’m sure it’ll all sort itself out but the Bengals had a good day overall at former OC Brian Callahan’s expense.

Commanders at Saints: Almost a Controversial Outcome

Playing in New Orleans again, those NFC South flashbacks must have hit Dan Quinn as the Commanders nearly blew a 17-0 lead in the second half that would have been one of the most controversial endings this season.

The Saints got back in the game by benching their new quarterback for rookie Spencer Rattler, but it was a trick play with a great catch by Alvin Kamara that got them on the board. The Commanders later had a chance to ice the game with a field goal to make it a 10-point game, but Greg Joseph missed a 54-yard field goal with 1:55 left.

That gave the Saints a chance at the tie or win, and they converted a 4th-down play to the 1-yard line in the closing seconds. But for some reason, the clock stopped at 0:09 for a solid 4 seconds before it started rolling again and that gave Rattler time to get the spike off. Had this not happened, it’s quite possible the clock would have run out. Maybe they could have gotten it with 1 second left had they seen it running out on them, but it would have been super close and that kind of clock error is inexcusable in this moment.

https://twitter.com/ChadwikoTWW/status/1868431498447323403

The Saints scored the touchdown on the last play, and they made the right decision to go for 2 and the win. But Rattler’s pass wasn’t even close in the end zone, and the Commanders (-7.5) held on for the 20-19 win after a real scare.

The only thing I’m shocked about here is that this didn’t happen in Philadelphia, because that’s the stadium where I’ve observed some real shady clock operating. But they’re apparently blaming this one on an official on the field accidentally stopping the clock when he shouldn’t have. Either way, it shouldn’t happen.

Oddly enough, this was the first time all year the Commanders successfully defended a one-score lead in the fourth quarter, the last team to do so in a game this year. What a sweat it was though.

Jets at Jaguars: Davante Adams’ Best Half

Congratulations to Aaron Rodgers on his 24th fourth-quarter comeback win, tying him with Patrick Mahomes on the career list even though his career is a dozen years shorter.

But it really was one of the greatest halves by a receiver in NFL history that made this one possible. The Jets only had 3 completions at halftime in another lackluster start. Davante Adams didn’t have a single catch, but in the second half alone, he went off for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 catches. He also caught a go-ahead 2-point conversion after his 71-yard touchdown put the Jets ahead after they almost blew their sixth 4th-quarter lead of the season.

It was also Adams who took the ball to the 1-yard line on the game-winning drive, which was a touchdown run by Breece Hall that the Jaguars may have just allowed willingly to get the ball back with some time in a 32-25 game. However, Mac Jones returned to his senses and threw a game-ending pick.

Maybe the craziest stat after Adams nearly going for a 400-yard full-game pace with that second half was that Rodgers led the Jets in rushing with 45 yards on 6 carries.

It’s too little too late for these Jets, but that was a vintage Rodgers to Adams performance that we thought we’d see earlier this year.

Cowboys at Panthers: Can See Why Carolina Is Usually the Underdog…

I can see why the Panthers have been underdogs for more than 30 straight games before Sunday where they lost 30-14 at home to Dallas. Count me in as one of the suckers who bought the fool’s gold that Carolina was doing better the last month (they really were, though) and that they could beat a Dallas team with a quarterback in Cooper Rush who couldn’t even throw for 200 yards at home against that Cincinnati defense.

Well, Rush threw 3 touchdowns in this one even if it took some great efforts from his receivers. Bryce Young had 4 turnovers and 6 sacks, including a strip-sack to start the second half when it was a 10-7 game, which really opened the floodgates on this one.

Dallas even won convincingly despite trying a 70-yard field goal that went about as poorly as you can imagine. I guess Carolina is still really bad.

Patriots at Cardinals: Third Down Differential 1991 Style

Not an interesting game as the Cardinals basically routed the Patriots to end their 3-game losing streak. But an interesting stat was on third down where the Patriots were 0-for-6 and the Cardinals were 10-for-15. It’s only the fifth game since 1991, the year they started officially tracking down stats, where one team failed to convert a single third down and their opponent converted at least two-thirds with a minimum 10 conversions.

The closest such game to this was back in 1991 when the Cardinals were 11-for-16 and the Patriots were 0-for-6 in a 24-10 win by the Phoenix Cardinals. So, there’s some more déjà vu.

Next week: Broncos-Chargers is solid for TNF with both teams hoping to make the playoffs. Saturday should have been great, but here we go with Patrick Mahomes and T.J. Watt leaving the fourth quarter with injuries and now facing a short week. Eagles-Commanders the highlight of Sunday’s early schedule even if it feels inevitable that the Eagles win the NFC East. Vikings-Seahawks the highlight in a low-key late slate. Bucs-Cowboys is a shit game for SNF that should have been flexed, but God forbid we do that to Jerry Jones. Saints-Packers should be a Green Bay rout on Monday night. So, I’m not really sure where the week peaks. Probably Steelers-Ravens for the AFC North on Saturday.