Tag: Eagles

NFL 2025 Week 1 Predictions: “Enjoy the Ride, He Said” Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The 2025 NFL season is here, we’ve already had two one-score games where both teams scored 20+ points, and while my theme this year was to just enjoy the ride, I’m already dreading the next 5.5 months if these are the takes I’m going to end up reading and/or replying to on a daily basis.

EDIT: I literally posted this seconds before this tweet came in, which is such bullshit if you know I’ve defended Dak Prescott (and Tony Romo before him) for years and have been generally pro-Dak since 2016 when I said he had the best rookie QB season ever.

The Chiefs have obviously broken the brains of most NFL fans this decade, but I still think I liked it better when people disagreed with what I said rather than this 2025 tactic of constantly making up strawmen arguments about things you think I might say.

I simply call it like it is, and I wish more people would do the same. But it’s seemingly never been more important to cling to a side and stick to it no matter what. You’re not analyzing the game if you made your mind up before kickoff on how to spin it.

Let’s just take the Chiefs-Chargers game as a great example. I picked the Chargers to win 27-24 as part of my prediction of the Chiefs starting 0-2. I picked the Chargers to end Kansas City’s NFL-record streak of 17 straight wins in games decided by one score, which they did. I believe it also ended up ending Patrick Mahomes’ likely record of 9 straight wins in games without a team takeaway.

But how are we getting these conflicting views this week where “Dak Prescott was amazing and blameless” and “Mahomes was awful for 2.5 quarters”? One guy started slow, finished strong. One guy started strong, didn’t score anything after halftime, and had some receiver mistakes cost him. Both lost.

I’d say more but I would like to enjoy this Saturday evening by catching up on some TV, and I am planning to do my weekly QB rankings at 365Scores again this year, so I’ll go into more detail on Mahomes later this week.

But I do know I just hope to see a game tomorrow where a major player isn’t ejected or injured in the first minute. The loss of Jalen Carter and Xavier Worthy from these games definitely had a huge impact on how they played out. It is what it is.

I’ll be back Monday morning as usual with Stat Oddity, recapping the games and calling it like I see it. Things you should actually try quoting me on instead of speculating about what you think I might say.

NFL Week 1 Predictions

I knew the spread for Eagles-Cowboys was too high but still went with the home team to cover. Oh well. I called the Chargers upset, and there aren’t many more upsets I’m rolling with this week but I chose my spots.

2025 NFL Week 1 Predictions

I think the Colts win their first Week 1 game since 2013, and I’m trusting the Falcons and Bears at home in statement wins. I think the Steelers-Jets game will be ugly but trusting Rodgers to prevail in the end.

I’m banking on the Ravens to recover a non-Josh Allen fumble before the halftime, if not the first quarter, as turnover regression strikes back in BUF-BAL. Also, remember there’s never been a good passing game between Lamar and Allen. A game where both throw it well. I’d expect that to continue and I’m taking the Ravens to win 24-20.

Here’s my Week 1 betting picks at 365scores.

I posted my award predictions and full Super Bowl picture earlier this week.

Don’t forget to scroll down or click here to read my annual NFL predictions.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Super Bowl LIX

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Fool me twice, shame on me.

While I undoubtedly picked the Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl LIX, I said clear as day in my final preview “But I think the No. 1 issue to watch for the Chiefs is the offensive line.”

I also made this foreboding note:

But you never want to feel too confident about a Super Bowl, because I think the last time I did that, Tampa Bay beat the Chiefs 31-9. Sure, there was the LOAT factor, but I misjudged the OL shuffle the Chiefs did that night.

I won’t make that mistake a third time going forward. The Chiefs have lost the benefit of doubt again, because this was a pathetic performance in every way on a night where they could have made important history. They built the three-peat up for 52 weeks and it came crashing down in about 1.5 quarters. You could even just take what I tweeted after the first quarter ended and it summed up the rest of the game too:

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1888745031625851109

Couldn’t block them. Couldn’t get to Jalen Hurts without blitzing, and even then, the game’s MVP did what he wanted with his arm and legs as he improved to 10-0 this season when passing for over 200 yards.

But make no mistakes about it. The Chiefs lost this game in the trenches, and that area is the driving force behind these three Philadelphia Super Bowl teams since 2017. They’ve built great offensive lines, they replaced Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox without losing a step on either side of the ball, and they just outworked and outsmarted the Chiefs for four quarters (or 3.5 before some garbage time) in a way we haven’t seen any team do.

Blowouts in Super Bowls used to be common, then it became an outlier in the 21st century. But it’s not a good look that the Chiefs are on the losing end of two of the four Super Bowl blowouts in the last 24 years as this game was most comparable to the 2013 Broncos against the Seahawks.

Defense wins championships. Football games are decided in the trenches. Overhyped quarterback matchups tend to disappoint.

That all applies again as that’s the way I started my Super Bowl 55 recap after the Chiefs lost 31-9 to the Buccaneers. Same shit, different year. Who knew the 2024 Chiefs would become a carbon copy of the 2020 Chiefs?

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1888823897044210169

That’s eerie. Mahomes was 25-1 in his previous 26 starts going into Super Bowl LV with a chance to repeat. He was 22-1 in his last 23 starts going into Sunday night with a chance to three-peat. The Chiefs were playing offensive linemen out of position in both games and were blown out by 18-to-22 points with Mahomes running for his life.

You can’t say there wasn’t precedent for this happening to Kansas City. But it’s hard to believe the Chiefs played the 2024 Eagles far worse than the Deshaun Watson-led Browns, the Jaguars despite trailing 22-0, and the Bryce Young-led Panthers did. Hell, they played them worse than anybody, because even Cooper Rush was only down 7-6 and 14-7 after the two-minute warning for Dallas in two games.

Also, can we put the Chiefs’ referee conspiracy bullshit to bed? After the first call of the night went Kansas City’s way, almost everything else was pro-Eagles, so enough about the NFL rigging things for one team. The whole thing was an overreaction by the collective fanbases whining about the Chiefs winning close games that a ton of people watched. No one cares about officiating in blowouts or calls that go against the Chiefs when that doesn’t fit the narrative. Let’s hope that bullshit quiets down in 2025, but you know how people are.

Anyways, the nicest thing about a Super Bowl rout is I don’t need to stay up until 8 AM recapping it. There’s only so much you can say about one team kicking another team’s ass on the biggest stage.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

The First Quarter Tea Leaves

We’ll see how long I get through the game in sequential order before I start going off on tangents about how bad the Chiefs played. But you could see in the first quarter that this was shaping up to be a bad night for Kansas City.

Let’s start with the lone thing the Chiefs did well. On the first play from scrimmage, Saquon Barkley had a nice run where he looked hard to tackle, yet it only produced a 4-yard gain. That would be one consistent theme for the night. The Chiefs actually shut Barkley down cold as a runner, holding him to 57 yards on 25 carries (2.3 YPC) with a long of 10 yards.

According to Next Gen Stats, Barkley’s minus-48 rushing yards over expected was the lowest game of his career. Great. You sold out to stop the run, and what did that really get you? It reminds me of the Super Bowl 48 blowout where the Broncos only did one thing very well, and that was run defense. The Broncos held Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch to 39 yards on 15 carries. They just did everything else poorly and lost 43-8.

The Eagles ended up punting on their opening drive after a 4th-and-2 conversion to A.J. Brown for 32 yards was negated by an offensive pass interference penalty for Brown pushing off. I didn’t like the call for OPI, but he clearly did push the defender’s face before making the catch, so something was worth a flag there to negate that pay. But you already opened a can of worms with the officiating conspiracy on the first drive.

However, that would be short-lived. The Chiefs gained 11 yards on their first play with a quick pass to JuJu Smith-Schuster, but the Chiefs wouldn’t gain another first down until the first minute of the third quarter if you can believe that.

On a 2nd-and-9, Mahomes threw what looked to be a fine pass to Travis Kelce for a first-down gain, but the tight end dropped it. That brought up 3rd-and-9, and the pursuit of Mahomes was on in the first big test of the game, and he held the ball for a long time before nearly throwing a pick, a sign of things to come.

The officiating battle evened out quickly when the Eagles’ second drive was extended by a weak call for a late hit by Trent McDuffie on a high throw to Dallas Goedert, who didn’t even need to break 30 yards for the Eagles to have a big night. That could have led to a punt or maybe the Eagles go for it, but they ended up beating the blitz with a 27-yard throw to Jahan Dotson down to the 1 where Hurts carried it in for the Tush Push touchdown.

I think that was the only Tush Push of the night too, and he showed up Josh Allen how to run his play against the Chiefs. With the Eagles up 7-0, the Chiefs went three-and-out with edge pressure by Nolan Smith getting to Mahomes to affect a throw to Hollywood Brown, who came running back to the quarterback and may have even given up the first down had he caught the ball. I thought if Brown sat in the zone he’d be an easy target for a first, but the play didn’t work out and again it was quick edge pressure.

The Super Bowl 48 comp. intensifies.

The Chiefs added to their legacy of being the worst team at lining up properly on crucial downs as Charles Omenihu was lined up offsides (Dee Ford special) on a 3rd-and-4 play where they sacked Hurts out of field goal range. Alas, that play didn’t count, and the drive continued, ending a pretty bad first quarter for the Chiefs.

The Second Quarter Faceplant

The defense had its best moment of the night when Steve Spagnuolo’s blitz on 3rd-and-10 worked as Hurts made a poor decision on a deep ball that was intercepted, making sure the Chiefs wouldn’t go four games without a takeaway for the first time in franchise history. They also wouldn’t join those 2013 Broncos as the only Super Bowl participant to go an entire postseason without a takeaway.

But they had the 2013 Broncos’ back in other ways. The only thing bad about the pick of Hurts is it was caught at the Kansas City 2, so the offense was 98 yards away from the end zone, meaning the Eagles were still more likely to get the game’s next score.

Sure enough, the Chiefs went three-and-out after Mahomes’ pass on 3rd-and-3 was low and away from Kelce on a throw they usually connect with. I don’t call that a drop and that’s more on Mahomes. The Eagles ended up getting good field position (own 43) and did indeed get the game’s next score with a 48-yard field goal by Jake Elliott, who redeemed himself with a fine night.

The Chiefs were down 10-0 for the fifth Super Bowl in a row, but we’ve seen them crawl out of holes like this before. Things were looking poor, but to this point, it was only a few pressures on third downs and Mahomes trying to compensate with a quick throw on the third drive. They can get things moving, right?

Nope. The fourth possession moved this one into blowout territory.

On first down, I’m not sure what the Chiefs were trying to do with a play-action pass, but the Eagles blew it up immediately with Josh Sweat going right past Kelce (whiffed) and getting the first sack of the night. On 2nd-and-14, Mahomes has Xavier Worthy near the right sideline for a gain of 5-6 yards if he wants it, but he’d need to take it immediately. Instead, he tried to climb the pocket and was sacked again by a pair of Eagles despite the Chiefs having 7 blockers against 4 rushers.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1888873409846616449

Then on 3rd-and-16, the gamebreaker, Mahomes threw his worst interception since…ever? At least since the play he accidentally injured Rashee Rice on in Week 4. I don’t know if he just never saw Cooper DeJean jumping the route, but the worst thing about this is it wasn’t even high reward enough. On 3rd-and-16, I’d much rather see him throw a 40-yard bomb and if it gets picked, then that’s the definition of an arm punt – not the fixed CBS version they use for Josh Allen.

https://twitter.com/LordSnowXRP/status/1888834469131608537

All the hype for Saquon Barkley’s birthday and not enough for Cooper DeJean turning 22 and turning in his first NFL interception for a huge 38-yard touchdown and 17-0 lead. It was the first time all year the Chiefs’ starters trailed by more than 11 points. It’s the first time Mahomes trailed by 17 points since a 2022 game against the Raiders that they came back to win 30-29 on a Monday night.

But this was going to be a daunting task. To this point, the Chiefs had 12 passes and 1 run (that gained 2 yards). Somewhere, Donovan McNabb is saying, “See, it’s not easy to win like that, is it?” in reference to Andy Reid’s career-long criticism of not running the ball in big games. Where were the screens and moving pockets to get away from that pressure?

The Chiefs then picked a curious time to call consecutive runs for the first time all night, down 17-0, and all it did was lead to 3rd-and-9. Mahomes tried to make something happen, but after running into the waiting arms of left guard Mike Caliendo (The Weakest Link), he took his third sack in his last four dropbacks.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1888878242330775557

The left side of the line was the problematic side, and at that point, I would have made the switch. I tweeted this during the game at this time too. Put Joe Thuney back at left guard where he belongs, and bring in veteran left tackle D.J. Humphries, who was active, to play tackle like he knows how to do.

This Thuney-Caliendo thing was cute for the last month, but the Eagles are embarrassing you without even sending heat. But the change never came. On defense, the Eagles got lucky when they avoided a 3rd-and-26 situation after a horribly soft penalty call on the Chiefs for a late hit.

https://twitter.com/Rate_the_Refs/status/1888754342053978506

We can say that didn’t end up mattering since the Eagles punted 36 seconds later, but it did likely change field position. The Chiefs took over at their own 6 with 1:49 and two timeouts left. If they could get a field goal, they’d get the ball first in the third quarter, so getting back into a 17-10 game actually wasn’t out of the realm of possibility if they could get something going in a hurry-up situation.

But any shot at a competitive game ended when Josh Sweat pushed Thuney right into Mahomes as he was throwing the ball on the first play of the drive, and Zack Baun made this diving interception to set the Eagles up at the Kansas City 14. Two plays later, A.J. Brown walked into the end zone on a touchdown catch to make it 24-0. Game over.

https://twitter.com/ShaneHaffNFL/status/1888756766151749843
Mahomes’ second interception in the second quarter.

Now we absolutely had the Super Bowl 48 comparison. A quick edge pressure is sometimes all it takes, and this is why I think Sweat (2.5 sacks) had a real argument for Super Bowl MVP as he won’t get credit for a sack there, but that pressure of pushing Thuney into Mahomes created that big interception.

And again, the Chiefs deserve what they got for sticking with their best guard at tackle instead of trying to work in a real tackle with plenty of experience. In a span of 5 dropbacks in the second quarter, Mahomes took three sacks and threw two picks and there’s your ballgame.

Any shot for a score before halftime basically ended with a holding penalty on first down to negate a good scramble by Mahomes, something that he should have been doing earlier too. Actually, I take that back. They had the 3rd-and-11 on this last drive converted, but DeAndre Hopkins decided to do this with his big opportunity in a Super Bowl:

https://twitter.com/NFL_DF/status/1888758885403546070

The Chiefs had 23 yards of offense and 1 first down on 7 drives in the first half. They usually surpass those numbers by the first or second drive of a game.

The Second Half Just Delays the Inevitable

If you thought the Chiefs had any answers for a competitive second half, you’d be wrong. No offensive line changes. Even with trying to chip with a running back, the Chiefs continued giving up sacks to 4-man rushes. Back-to-back sacks led to a 3rd-and-17 for Mahomes where he was only able to scramble for half of it before the Chiefs punted.

Hurts made a few key scrambles, Barkley made his most impactful play on a bobbled 22-yard catch, but the Eagles were held to a field goal. Still, it was 27-0 and that drive consumed 6:42, which is exactly what you want if you’re the Eagles.

Like I said, Andy Reid had no answers before or during the game. After a Jawaan Taylor holding penalty (redundant) wiped out a first-down scramble by Mahomes, you knew the Chiefs were cooked when they’re trying to run for 1 yard with Kareem Hunt on 2nd-and-14. Mahomes ended up leading the team with 25 rushing yards as his backs had 7 carries for 24 yards.

Going for it on 4th-and-4, I thought Mahomes made his 2nd-biggest mistake of the night when he didn’t see Justin Watson open over the  middle and seemed to predetermined a throw to the right to Hopkins, which wasn’t close. The Chefs turned it over on downs, and the Eagles went for the kill shot immediately with a 46-yard touchdown strike to DeVonta Smith, which probably clinched the MVP for Hurts since you can’t give it to the whole defense.

Just like that, Mahomes was down 34-0 for the first time in his career. The team’s previous biggest deficit with him was 27-0 in a 27-3 loss in Tennessee in 2021.

At 34-0, we knew it was all over. Mahomes and Worthy (the only Kansas City player who showed up) connected a couple of times to quickly lead a 90-yard touchdown drive so there wouldn’t be a shutout. But the Eagles had another time-consuming field goal drive (5:43) to make it 37-6, then with just under 10:00 left, Mahomes was sacked for a career-high sixth time and fumbled. The officials didn’t even bother flagging the hit to Mahomes’ face on the play, and no one cared because it was a blowout and the missed call didn’t help the Chiefs.

https://twitter.com/TSN_Sports/status/1888781212736483455

By taking a sixth sack, that ends Mahomes’ streak of 132 games to start his career without taking more than 5 sacks in any game. Only Peyton Manning (293), Dan Marino (260), and Joe Flacco (180) had longer streaks to begin their careers.

The Eagles won the turnover battle 3-1 and finished the postseason +12 in turnover margin, including an absurd +7 in fumbles.

They added a field goal after the Mahomes fumble to get to 40 points, and then Mahomes threw two touchdowns to Hopkins and Worthy down the stretch to get some garbage-time stats for the 40-22 final with Kenny Pickett (oh, for fuck’s sake) kneeling it out for the Philadelphia win.

With the way people are reacting to those late touchdowns, it just proves I was right that Mahomes would get killed for “garbage-time stat padding” in Super Bowl 55 had he thrown a late touchdown to make it 31-16 and get a touchdown on the board instead of throwing his second interception in a 31-9 game that was long decided. Can’t win either way with the cult out there.

The Chiefs gained 11 yards on their first play of the night and didn’t have a longer gain until 2:33 remained in the third quarter with Worthy making a pair of 50-yard catches in this game.

For the reputation Andy Reid has as a great coach following bye weeks, he is 1-2 after a bye against Nick Sirianni, who I struggle to give credit to as it feels like he goes as his coordinators go.

Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio won his first Super Bowl and his first game against Mahomes, who he was 0-8 against. But Fangio had the right idea all night. He didn’t blitz once and still generated 16 pressures and 6 sacks. Reportedly that’s just the fourth time since 2018 that a defense didn’t blitz in a game, and I believe one of those games was Buffalo in 2020 against the Chiefs.

The Eagles played Cover 4 at the third-highest rate (59.5%) of any game since 2018.

https://twitter.com/NextGenStats/status/1888791032118030640

I don’t think that becomes the new “blueprint” to beat the Chiefs, because not everyone can get pressure like this just by rushing four. Compare how the Eagles looked and how the Bills looked two weeks ago, and it’s like night and day.

But Kansas City’s offense has had major struggles in what I would say is four of their five Super Bowls against these NFC teams. They found a way to come back and finish strong in three of those games for rings, but they’re always playing an elite unit, and they just never seem to struggle this much in big games when they play those AFC rivals like the Ravens and Bills.

It’s definitely an interesting dynamic, but it’s why you can’t give this team the benefit of the doubt anymore. Nineteen of the last 21 Super Bowls had been within one score in the fourth quarter, but this is now the second time the Chiefs lost by three scores, and this one wasn’t even that close if we’re just keeping it real.

The Chiefs got their asses kicked, something only a handful of teams can say they’ve done to them over the last seven seasons. Hats off to the Eagles for coming back strong after last year’s collapse and getting their revenge for Super Bowl 57.

I know which game I enjoyed more of the two, but sometimes you need a good ass kicking to get your priorities right. I still have to write two articles tomorrow about where the Chiefs and Eagles go from here, so I’m not going to get into that here.

But it’s pretty clear the Chiefs need to find a real left tackle who can stick around for the next decade with Mahomes. Starting five Super Bowls with five different left tackles is a cool footnote but not ideal at all. It reminds me of Peyton Manning going to four Super Bowls with four different head coaches.

They’re the only two quarterbacks who can do these things, but it’s not likely going to lead to great results when you’re going up against more complete teams.

Conclusion: The GOAT Case Is Closed

Many are using this game to say the GOAT case is closed, and I have to say I agree with that. Obviously, I was never on board with it anyway.

I mean, Andy Reid is simply not the greatest coach of his era, let alone all time. Now his 3-3 Super Bowl record with his team getting dominated twice largely because he didn’t have a real plan for the offensive line is an eyesore.

Maybe it wouldn’t have mattered if they started D.J. Humphries or gave Donovan Smith a call in December – the Eagles played that well. But I can’t see someone like Bill Belichick ever watch his team get crushed in all phases like this with so much on the line.

Sure, the 2007 Patriots blew the perfect season to the Giants, but it was a 17-14 game they led late in. This was another rout for Reid, and that’s very disappointing. Almost like the Chiefs don’t do well in the role of a favorite and villain. Just showing up as the defending champs doesn’t mean you’re supposed to win. The Eagles kicked their ass.

But yeah, people are going to use this game against Mahomes, and I get it. He’ll need some big Super Bowl moments in the future to offset the sting of these losses. It would be a really tough look if he never made it back as Brady is the only quarterback to start more than five Super Bowls. But I’d also be utterly shocked if Mahomes doesn’t get back.

And I still believe his best and most complete rosters can be in his future. The success he’s already created after starting for seven seasons is historically unmatched.

How quickly people forget Brady was 3-2 in Super Bowls, and a yard away from going 3-3 in Year 15 before Malcolm Butler happened. I don’t expect Mahomes to do what Brady did in his 40s, and I think this was his only good shot at the three-peat, and it hurts to not make that happen.

But no one knows where things go from here. Mahomes is only going into Year 9 and he’s already 3-2 in Super Bowls. He has time on his side, and the dynasty isn’t over until someone actually dethrones them with their own 3+ ring run. But they are going to have to play better when they get this far again. This was unacceptable, and it’s not about any one person.

The Chiefs will take a breather and start the process all over again for the 2025 season. I’ll do the same, and I have to admit I’ve been looking forward to the offseason and a little more down time as this has been a year from hell. The three-peat was actually a great source of escapism for me and something to follow along with throughout this season.

Going back to last April:

  • I’ve lost one of my oldest friends to suicide after an online mob used cancel culture against him much like one tried to do to me, so that made it hit even harder.
  • My neighbor was murdered (along with her friend) in her house by her own son after weeks of shooting incidents and threats from him that the police knew and did nothing about.
  • I lost my only uncle to cancer in December.
  • Just this week, my mom’s best friend and someone I always imagined would be there for me was found dead in her apartment from a very sudden illness.
  • I don’t expect my two oldest cats to see 2026 (maybe not even the spring) as they’re both struggling with their health.

There’s something else I never got closure from that happened in 2023, but I’ve probably overshared enough as is.

I just feel like I’m stuck in a Charlie Kaufman screenplay, and my world keeps getting smaller, darker, and has been surrounded by death for the last year. Throw in Trump and President Elon trying to destroy the country right in front of our eyes on a daily basis, and I don’t see much reason for optimism or hope about the future.

But I got a 15th season in me, and who knows, maybe there’s a Malcolm Butler out there who will save it in the end. I’ll have some offseason projects, basketball coverage, and will be catching up on movies.

This might even be the week for me to watch Emilia Perez, because it’d only be the second-shittiest thing I’ve watched this week after last night’s game.

Until next time, enjoy your loved ones while you still can.

NFL Super Bowl LIX Preview

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It’s been years since I’ve grinded away for hours on a Saturday to do a final big preview for the Super Bowl that I posted here. I get that done during the week at other sites now, but after sending in about 30 different pieces across four sites this week, I am wore out and ready for the game. I don’t know how much more I can say about Chiefs vs. Eagles.

I just want to see it already as I think it’s a fascinating matchup and obviously a ton of history/legacy at stake with the three-peat. It’s also historic with these teams meeting for the 4th year in a row, something that’s never been done in any AFC vs. NFC matchup.

Here are the key links to articles I’ve already done about Super Bowl LIX, so if you need to pass the time Sunday before kickoff, here you go:

Super Bowl LIX Final Prediction

It goes without saying I want the Chiefs to win this game. I only root for the Eagles when they played the Patriots. Going into these games, I usually find it very easy to doubt the Chiefs because they usually are playing a team that’s built better than they are, and I think that’s the case again.

In fact, I wanted to see if I could dig out something from my Super Bowl LIV preview (Chiefs vs. 49ers) from the first Super Bowl in the Patrick Mahomes era to see if anything applies here to Sunday night. Sure enough, there’s this:

There are a lot of areas that favor the 49ers, and I think historically the 49ers are the type of team more likely to win this game than a team like the Chiefs. There are just more ways for the 49ers to win while practically every positive outcome for Kansas City involves Mahomes playing really well. Then again, Mahomes is 9-0 in his career when his passer rating is under 90.0 because he’s the best at doing what the coach who succeeded Reid and preceded Shanahan used to say: f***ing score points.

But in doing the research the last two weeks, I was legitimately concerned at how much seemed to favor the Chiefs over the Eagles. You want to talk about turnovers? The Chiefs still win games when they lose the turnover battle, and if anyone’s due for a bad turnover night, it should be the Eagles (no giveaways in 5 games combined with +10 this postseason and the fact the Chiefs have never gone 4 straight games without one). No SB winner has ever failed to force at least 3 takeaways in the playoffs, so what are the Chiefs doing here? Get some turnovers Sunday night.

Then the Chiefs haven’t allowed a 90-yard rusher in 18 playoff games under Spagnuolo. They’re still 10-3 the last 13 times they’ve allowed a 100-yard rusher, which is a fantastic record in that split.

Then you look it up and the Chiefs have actually outrushed the Eagles head-to-head in 3 straight years. Who would have guessed that? Mahomes is 8-0 against Vic Fangio, he’s never lost indoors in the NFL, he’s 45-2 when he gets the ball out in under 2.8 seconds (which he’s done so well for the last month), the Eagles don’t make quarterbacks hold it that long, the Chiefs are better on special teams, they’re the more battle tested team, etc.

But you never want to feel too confident about a Super Bowl, because I think the last time I did that, Tampa Bay beat the Chiefs 31-9. Sure, there was the LOAT factor, but I misjudged the OL shuffle the Chiefs did that night.

Because when you look at the Chiefs’ 20 playoff games under Mahomes, they’re 17-3 with two losses in overtime. That Tampa Bay rout sticks out like a sore thumb, and if the Eagles win this game, you feel better about it being a blowout than a close game.

So, as the week wore on, I did start to doubt the Chiefs more.

I could see Barkley hitting a homerun in the first quarter again, maybe even the first play. Like as inevitable as Devin Hester taking the opening kickoff for a touchdown in Super Bowl 41 against the Colts. He’s just had that kind of season. But I don’t think the Chiefs are giving up 150+ yards to him on the ground and they can survive the long play touchdown. You’d rather give that up than consistent gains all night, which the Eagles haven’t been doing in the playoffs as Barkley’s success rate has dropped 9 points from the reg. season.

Then you start thinking the Chiefs have this 17-game winning streak in one-score games. When does that stop? The Eagles love to punch the ball out. Does someone like Kelce fumble in scoring range late in the game to end the three-peat? I had that vision, or maybe I was just thinking of the red-zone fumble he had last year against Philly earlier in the fourth quarter of a game the Eagles came back to win.

But I think the No. 1 issue to watch for the Chiefs is the offensive line. Does moving Joe Thuney to tackle weaken them too much at guard when the strength of the Eagles’ front seven is the interior line? If I’m Vic Fangio, I am moving Jalen Carter over to face new left guard Mike Caliendo, who is struggling. Don’t just leave him on Trey Smith all game. Own the Carter-Caliendo matchup to the point where maybe Andy Reid has to slide Thuney back to LG and play D.J. Humphries at LT. Shuffling the OL like this in a Super Bowl might cause some PTSD for Mahomes and the Chiefs. That’s what I’d do if I was the Eagles. You have to change things up in the Super Bowl. Make use of that extra week of prep work.

But I will say the numbers just aren’t that flattering for this pass rush of the Eagles. It’s not like 2022. But if the Chiefs can handle them up front, I think they play well. Then it’s the chess match on the other side with Spags likely blitzing Hurts, and likely sending corner blitzes. I thought that was interesting that Trent McDuffie has 15 blitzes in his last two games against the Eagles. That’s way above average for him. We’ll see if they do that again.

I looked at my old previews and I picked the Eagles two years ago (27-20) because I think I legitimately felt worried about that pass rush going up against Mahomes on the high-ankle sprain, and of course the Eagles offense had the edge against a young, middling KC defense. But I picked the Chiefs outright (by 4 points each time) against the 49ers in 2019 and 2023, so I didn’t do a reverse jinx or anything.

I’m not going to do one here either, because I don’t have any strong negative feelings about the 2024 Eagles like I did for say Buffalo, the No. 1 team on my Fraud Alert Rating metric. Eagles fans haven’t even given me any shit this postseason, and I’ve said this game is pretty much a coin flip and they have a very fair shot to win it. They are the team more likely to win it by multiple scores if it’s not a one-score game.

But the numbers I trust say the Chiefs (-1.5) usually win these matchups. They’re 6-0 in playoff games with spreads this small. They just find a way to win, and to come this close to a three-peat, I think they find a way to do it one more time. But I don’t expect it to be as high scoring as two years ago because I think both defenses are better and the game won’t have a ton of possessions.

Final: Chiefs 24, Eagles 21 (MVP: Patrick Mahomes)

NFL 2024 Conference Championship Predictions: Historic Day Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We’re here. About 12 hours from the point I’m writing this, they’ll kick off the NFC Championship Game, and that will begin what could be one of the most important days in NFL history depending on how these games go.

Just think of all the history and streaks on the line today:

  • The Chiefs can become the first team to reach the Super Bowl after repeating, putting them one win away from the three-peat.
  • A 10th-straight playoff win would also tie the Patriots for the all-time record.
  • The Chiefs have gone 8 straight games without a giveaway (NFL record).
  • The Chiefs have won 16 straight one-score games (NFL record).
  • The Bills have 8 giveaways in 19 games (NFL record for any season or any 19-game span).
  • The Bills have not lost the turnover battle in 21 straight games (longest streak in Super Bowl era).
  • The Bills are the only team since at least 1992 to have 0 lost fumbles by non-quarterbacks.
  • The Bills could break the Five-Year Rule if they win the Super Bowl in Year 7 of Sean McDermott/Josh Allen as no team has ever won its first Super Bowl starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than five years.
  • The Commanders can become the first team in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback (Jayden Daniels).
  • The Commanders can become the first team in NFL history to score at least 18 points in 20 consecutive games in a season.
  • The Eagles, well, they’re playing too. I guess Saquon Barkley can still set the single-season rushing record (playoffs included).

That’s a lot of stuff. I absolutely have a preferred rooting interest in seeing Commanders-Chiefs in two weeks. Unfortunately, that feels like the least likely outcome. I also have a very strong objection to seeing Bills-Eagles in two weeks. Unfortunately, that feels like the most likely outcome, or at least second right now. But crazier things have happened, and you can’t argue with these facts that add a lot of drama to the day:

  • The Commanders are the only team to beat the Eagles since October, and the only team to score more than 23 points against them in that time.
  • The Bills are the only team to beat the Chiefs’ starters this season, and the only team to score 30 points on that starting defense in the last two seasons.

Home teams usually win this round, but these teams have shown vulnerabilities despite their winning ways, and they are facing the teams arguably best equipped to beat them. That’s what makes it so interesting.

And while people are bitching left and right about officiating, let’s not lose the plot on turnovers this week. None of these final four teams have a giveaway in the playoffs. That’s never happened before since they’ve done this round in 1970. The teams who lose are likely going to suffer some devastating turnovers today that will go down in playoff infamy.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Conference Championship Predictions

Commanders at Eagles (-6.5)

I said in my preview and picks I was taking the Commanders, but can I get a redo? I’m just getting a bad vibe with the Commanders having some big losses in the trenches (Cosmi and DaRon Payne) on both sides of the ball. They were already at a disadvantage against the Eagles, who have the better defense, better run game/OL, and are home.

It’s a lot to overcome, but maybe if Jalen Hurts’ mobility is limited, that will be a great equalizer for this game. They still have Barkley, and I expect him to carve up the Commanders again. But they beat him running for 150 yards last time. The Rams were 13 yards away from beating this team with Barkley going for 200 again. Hell, the Browns (with Predator), Jaguars (with Trevor Lawrence playing terrible), and the Panthers (until the raccoon eater dropped the TD) all nearly won in Philly this year.

A team on a 7-game winning streak can beat this Philadelphia team. I know we should fade rookies in this spot, but what if Daniels is just that 1 of 1 rookie who makes history by getting to the Super Bowl? He’s already carrying the team like a veteran and doing things this postseason no one else has done (forget experience level):

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1882934544984334827

It’s asking a lot of Daniels, but I think he can outplay Hurts, withstand the impact of Barkley, and the Commanders just need a turnover or two to pull off the upset and go to the Super Bowl. We’re overdue for a No. 6 seed going on a miracle run.

Final: Commanders 24, Eagles 20

Bills at Chiefs (-1.5)

The theme for this game for me is turnovers. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the team that has a turnover meltdown loses this game by 10+ points. Which team is more likely to do that? Well, the Bills have fewer turnovers than the Chiefs and are much better at creating takeaways on defense, so that’s an easy call.

However, how crazy would it be if the game didn’t feature a single turnover? Not that crazy. The 42-36 “13 Seconds” game between these teams didn’t have a turnover. The 2024 Chiefs are also the first team in NFL history to play 5 games in a season where neither team turned it over. The only giveaway by either team in the last 8 games was Josh Allen’s deep ball intercepted by the Patriots. That’s it.

Referees are unfortunately the other big talking point. After the absurd reaction to the officiating in KC’s last game, which has been a running theme since the Bengals game in Week 2, I’m not sure the officiating won’t be overcorrected in this game to the point where the Chiefs can’t buy an easy call and are getting hit for the most ridiculous stuff to “balance” things out for the masses of idiots out there.

Every time you threaten the league with a conspiracy that it’s rigged for one team, I’d expect some kind of overcorrection. Maybe it’s calling a phantom DPI on the Chiefs on 3rd-and-long, a dubious roughing penalty for a hit on Josh Allen, and you can count on the Chiefs to get hit for holding to wipe out some good offensive gains (it’s a problem for them period).

Even the ref assignment reeks of “that’ll teach them” as the Chiefs are just 6-5 when Clete Blakeman is their ref, including some of the toughest losses in the Mahomes era (2018 AFC-CG, 54-51, their last home loss on Christmas 2023). He’s flag happy, and that’s not promising.

Purely from a matchup standpoint, the Chiefs should be healthier and have more players to help them in Week 11. I’m still not sold they didn’t try hard to win that game, but 4 targets for Kelce, not a single rush by Mahomes, and some other weird things like overuse of play-action and no QB spy on 4th & 2 vs. Allen tells me they were experimenting and should have some tricks up their sleeves this time Also, getting Nazeeh Johnson away from the field to play Jaylen Watson at corner should help.

Expecting the Bills to have edges at turnovers and refs, I think you also have to give them a better OL advantage. I’m still not sure the Chiefs aren’t hurting themselves by moving Joe Thuney to guard instead of keeping him there and playing DJ Humphries at left tackle. Might be taking away from the run, and that’s another issue. I think Hunt deserves more touches than Pacheco. The Chiefs have all these new, moving pieces (Hopkins, Hollywood) and I’m not sure they’ve figured out how to utilize them all properly yet. The margin for error has been tiny all year and they only lost one game, but it was also to their opponent today. That’s not good news. Harrison Butker also concerns me this year.

Andy Reid has lost 4 title games at home in his career, including twice with Mahomes after getting swept by the 2018 Pats and 2021 Bengals. The 2024 Bills could certainly join that list. It’s hard to bet against the Chiefs after last year’s title run, and then going 16-1 with starters, but maybe the Bills finally have enough to get the job done here.

This feels like a coin flip game and I don’t mean OT. It could just come down to Buffalo finishing +1 in turnovers and beating the Chiefs at their own game by walking that defense down the field for a GW FG with no time left (Tyler Bass’ redemption) after a Pacheco fumble. Yeah, that’s a 1990 NFC-CG Roger Craig reference, the closest three-peat attempt ever. The Chiefs should be properly motivated, but they’ve been playing with fire all year and I fear the Bills are the only team that can burn them in the AFC a step short of glory.

Final: Bills 27, Chiefs 24

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Divisional Round

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

After a lackluster wild card round, the NFL’s divisional round delivered with the Chiefs inching closer to the three-peat, the Commanders pulling off an all-time upset in Detroit, a quality snow game in Philadelphia, and the most Baltimore ending possible in Buffalo.

I couldn’t personally get a parlay to hit, but at least my tight ends parlay (+539) on 365Scores was correct, and I had some other good picks like Travis Kelce having another 70-yard game in the postseason, Amon-Ra St. Brown going over 90 yards, and Terry McLaurin scoring a touchdown.

At least I was right that Ravens-Bills would not be a great quarterback duel, and it would come down to those things like fumble recoveries and avoiding big drops, which the Ravens of course failed to do again.

I’ll try to limit officiating talk here because I’d prefer to do something more in depth on that later this week. Plus, it’s just really annoying to harp on that for every game when we know the officiating is bad. None of these games were directly decided by the refs.

Save that kind of referee talk for Championship Sunday from the 2018 season (IYKYK)

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Ravens at Bills: Baltimore Blunders Strike Again

I’ll be curious to watch the season finale of Hard Knocks this week and see how John Harbaugh reacts to the latest playoff loss for his Ravens. This one was different, and yet at the same time, it was very much on brand for Baltimore throughout his tenure. I’m not sure any other recent franchise has a long list of blunders like this in close playoff losses:

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1881204200320716801

Some of those games weren’t that close (2009 Colts, 2019 Titans), but many were, and many of these plays can probably be visualized in your head by their brief mention if you’ve followed the NFL closely for years.

I’ve pounded the table for the “Same Old Steelers, let’s fire Mike Tomlin” crusade for years now in Pittsburgh, which also loses playoff games in excruciatingly similar ways year after year. But while Harbaugh can say the same of his team, I simply don’t see it the same way that he’s got to go if they’re ever going to change.

At some point, the play is out of the coach’s hands, and players have to make the plays. Catch the ball, protect the ball, make the kick. Hold onto the fucking ball, as Lamar Jackson pointed out after the game, probably the most frustrating loss of his career after he had his best season in 2024.

https://twitter.com/big_business_/status/1881180079071601140

https://twitter.com/big_business_/status/1881180079071601140

I can already see the legacy talks for Lamar won’t be kind after this game even though it was clearly his best performance in a playoff loss. If he does indeed have a third MVP win this year, good luck ever getting nominated for a fourth. People are not going to take his regular seasons seriously until he puts together a great playoff run.

Maybe that’s fair too. But what’s not fair is to lump this 27-25 loss in Buffalo in with the past Baltimore playoff losses for Lamar.

Remember that stat about how he had his game with the fewest points that season in the playoffs all four times he’s gone? He broke that streak by putting up 25 in this game (lowest game was 16 points in Pittsburgh). Unfortunately, the Ravens were 13-0 when they scored 28+ this year and 0-6 when they didn’t. They needed 28+ again to win this game too and came up a little short.

But this game was still different. Usually, Jackson loses a low-scoring game and wire-to-wire in the playoffs. This time, he led an opening touchdown drive, making some big plays on third downs and making it look easy. But Buffalo was able to answer with its own opening drive touchdown to tie it at 7.

Jackson’s next pass was intercepted on either a poor read or a ball that just got away from him. Uh-oh, here comes the narrative. He can’t handle the playoffs and this was the coldest game of his career. But the Bills punted from there, so it didn’t really harm things.

The next drive was the significant one with the Ravens driving into Buffalo territory in a 7-7 game. It always hurts when you compound mistakes in the playoffs, and the Ravens did that here. Mark Andrews dropped a pass that should have set up a 2nd-and-short, then a bad snap was high to Jackson, he tried to make too much happen on the play instead of settling for a sack and third-and-long, and he fumbled it. The Bills returned it to the Baltimore 24 and set themselves up for another one of those short touchdown drives with Josh Allen scoring from 1 yard out to go up 14-7.

Just like that, Lamar had two quick turnovers, something he hadn’t done all regular season, and the playoff choke narrative was writing itself nicely. But there was a drop and bad snap that directly preceded that mistake. He wasn’t alone there.

We used to show grace to people who made up for their mistakes, but that seems to have gone out the window in today’s society. If you look at how Jackson finished the game from there, he played great and did his job. Throw in an opening-drive touchdown, and it’s really those two plays with the turnovers that were his biggest flaws on the night.

In the past, Lamar would have just crumbled from there. This time, he made plays and strung together drives, but they still didn’t all result in touchdowns because the running game had some letdowns. I’m not sure why they didn’t pound Henry more when they had 1st-and-goal at the 2. They were stuffed, then tried throwing twice before settling for a field goal and 14-10 deficit.

Buffalo used most of the final 3:43 in the half to score a touchdown, but the drive was not without controversy. On a 3rd-and-5, Allen threw incomplete for rookie Keon Coleman, who drew a defensive pass interference flag against former Bill Tre’Davious White. The call was bullshit. That’s either OPI or preferably no flag at all since they were both engaged with each other. Just a terrible call that led to the Bills scoring another 4-yard touchdown run by Allen to take a 21-10 lead into the half.

https://twitter.com/GeneSteratore/status/1881143728703979919

https://twitter.com/GeneSteratore/status/1881143728703979919

Again, this is the spot where you expect Lamar to crumble, but it did not happen this time. It helped that the Bills punted twice in the third quarter after a couple of ineffective drives. Frankly, I have no idea what the plan was for Buffalo’s passing game. They ran a chickenshit, dink-and-dunk style passing game where Allen got the ball out the fastest he has all season, but it only kind of worked because the running game was solid with America getting a chance to see how impressive this line and trio of backs has been.

But it took Allen a long time to even break 100 passing yards, and he only finished the game with 127 passing yards and 20 rushing yards on a quiet night.

Once Henry broke through with a touchdown run on his best drive of the night by far (he finished with 84 rushing yards), the Ravens went for two. I always say they’re terrible at these, and they didn’t prove me wrong as they love throwing on them. Jackson’s pass was incomplete and the Ravens still trailed 21-19. I didn’t think it was too early to go for it there.

The Bills settled for a 51-yard field goal to make it 24-19. This was looking a lot like their playoff game in this round last year against the Chiefs with Allen mixing a good running game and the dink and dunk to have a fourth-quarter lead at home. But Jackson had his shot to go up 27-24, the same score the Chiefs won that game by last year.

It was going well until Andrews decided to try getting YAC at midfield, only for him to have the ball punched out on a huge fumble. Just the second lost fumble of his career too. He usually doesn’t try to move like that in the open field, and it was a big turning point.

The Bills turned that into points but not before a huge decision on 4th-and-2 at the Baltimore 2 with 3:31 left:

  • Do you try to go for the touchdown and 31-19 lead, putting it basically out of reach with a 2-touchdown lead and the Ravens down to one timeout?
  • Do you go for the short field goal and take a 27-19 lead, feeling comfortable that the Ravens will blow another 2PC?
  • Do you risk not getting it, and leaving yourself open to the Ravens driving for the go-ahead touchdown?

In the end, I think Sean McDermott made the right call of a field goal just because of how sure I am about Baltimore screwing up those 2PC plays. With Henry on the sideline, without Zay Flowers all game, Jackson faced his legacy drive.

I thought he did a good job with it, and maybe scoring so quickly (1:33 left) was an issue as Buffalo would have plenty of time to go get the winning score. But you’re going to take the score when it’s open, and Jackson found Isaiah Likely for the 24-yard touchdown.

But what do they do on the 2-point conversion? They’re now 2-for-9 on these in the fourth quarter when trailing with Lamar at quarterback. I even have a tweet from 2021 talking about how they go to Mark Andrews way too much in these situations and don’t connect.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1473398508220825600

Sure enough, it happened again. I even screamed “Andrews!” at the TV as I saw he was open on the right side, and the pass was thrown to him again. I thought the pass was good enough and should have been caught by a Pro Bowler, but he just flat out dropped it, solidifying his spot as the biggest choker at his position as he still hasn’t scored a touchdown in the postseason. Couldn’t even catch this game-tying play right in his hands.

https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1881168053033160798

That was it. The Bills recovered the onside kick and ran out the clock for a 27-25 win. The Ravens couldn’t overcome their minus-3 turnover margin on the road even though the tie was right there. Like Buffalo last year against Kansas City, it may have just ended in a 30-27 loss to a last second field goal, but you never know.

And you’ll never know when you make mistakes like that drop. Andrews should definitely get the brunt of the blame with his late-game mistakes. There’s just no margin for error left when you do that so late in the game to kill multiple drives.

The Bills had a 34-yard pass play on their third snap from scrimmage, then never had a play gain more than 17 yards the rest of the night. They sat back and pounced on Baltimore’s mistakes, getting the fortunate fumble and great field position from Lamar’s fumble on a bad snap, getting the bogus DPI call before halftime for an additional 4 points, and adding the insurance field goal after Andrews’ fumble that they forced with the punch-out. That was enough for the win this time.

The Ravens were kind of built to self-destruct at some point, but it’s still stunning to see that Jackson and Andrews would make these mistakes again in the biggest game of the year. It was Jackson early and Andrews late.

But the other stat that caught my attention, and maybe this is the way to bring it full circle and lay some responsibility on Harbaugh, is the lack of takeaways by the Ravens’ defense in the postseason.

Remember last year when Baltimore had the defensive triple crown? No. 1 in points allowed, sacks, and takeaways? Well, that great defense didn’t force a single takeaway in either playoff game against the Texans or Chiefs. That doesn’t mean they didn’t play well enough to win both games, but they didn’t get the takeaways that make it easier to do so like Buffalo’s been getting all year. The Bills are somehow now +16 in fumble recoveries and +27 in turnover margin this year – absurd numbers. They just set the modern NFL record with 21 straight games without losing the turnover battle.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1881273588407550258

Meanwhile, the Ravens have tied the NFL record by going four straight playoff games without a takeaway. Their last came in the 2022 AFC wild card in Cincinnati, the game started by Tyler Huntley for an injured Lamar, who hasn’t seen a takeaway in a playoff game since 2020 in Tennessee. That’s five straight playoff starts for Lamar where his defense didn’t get a turnover, which would be the longest streak in NFL history.

It’s still the ultimate team game. Baltimore’s lack of playoff success in the Jackson era has never been about only him, but he has been the central figure as the quarterback who has played well below his standards in those games.

But this game was something different. He had his mistakes, but so do many quarterbacks in big playoff games, including everyone from Joe Montana to Tom Brady to Patrick Mahomes. I don’t remember when perfection was ever the requirement to win these games.

But when your star tight end turns into whatever you want to call Andrews’ performance, and your defense doesn’t get any takeaways or create a real swing of momentum, then you’re left with coming up short like this.

I can understand why Jackson sounded extra frustrated in the post-game, and even if he was truly talking about his own turnovers, I can forgive him if he had Andrews first in mind after everything that happened this season from Likely’s toe on opening night to Kyle Hamilton’s dropped interception in Cleveland to Justin Tucker’s awful game against the Eagles to now this loss in Buffalo.

At least we know damn well that the Ravens would have choked on the 2PC in Kansas City if they went for it opening night. I said it then. But if I knew in 2021 that they were throwing too many passes in general and way too many to Andrews in these clutch 2PC moments, why don’t they know that in 2025?

Jackson is making progress in the playoffs with three pretty solid games in his last four tries. His QBR (85.8) was higher in this game than Allen’s (71.1), and yes, he even beat him in the precious EPA stat.

But is Andrews making progress in big games? No. Is the defense coming up with the kind of clutch takeaways that drove teams like the Commanders, Eagles, and Bills to wins this weekend? Nope.

At least the Ravens didn’t panic after going down 21-10 this time, but their progress in the playoffs is slow moving. Bad enough to change coaches? I’m not sure. I just know someone is always screwing up in Baltimore save for 2012, and even that year was saved by Rahim Moore taking the worst angle possible on the touchdown to Jacoby Jones (RIP) in Denver.

Had that gone like every other Baltimore postseason, I don’t think I’d be talking about Harbaugh coaching this team right now. He’d have been let go many years ago.

But the Ravens have just completed one of the most dominant 7-year runs (2018-24) in NFL history without a single Super Bowl appearance to show for it. Even the 1979 Rams got there with Vince Ferragamo at quarterback. The closest thing to Baltimore might be Buffalo if that team loses next week too. Otherwise, it’s probably the 1999-2005 Colts as the closest comparison.

That team won the Super Bowl in 2006 after people wrote them off when they followed a 9-0 start with a 3-4 finish. They still had their albatross receiver (Marvin Harrison) weighing the offense down in the postseason, but they still produced enough points and the defense finally started producing turnovers.

Maybe Baltimore can do that in 2025, but it’s tough to keep coming back after finishing short like this. The competition isn’t going away either. It’s the same demons to slay, but Baltimore might have to look in house and fix some of their own demons first. Whether that means moving forward with Likely as TE1, a different coach, or trying to become more of a pass-first offense, they need to shake things up.

And no matter what you do, hold onto the fucking ball.

Commanders at Lions: Shock and Awe

I believed in Jayden Daniels enough to cover the spread and give Detroit a battle, but I sure as hell didn’t expect a 45-31 win to end Detroit’s dream season. He had that kind of “road virtuoso” performance that is so rare in the playoffs for a considerable underdog, and he did it as a rookie – granted, the best rookie QB to ever do it.

But for as shocking as the game was, it kind of made sense too. I just wrote the other day that Detroit’s fatal flaws are Jared Goff going goofy with turnovers and the defense having too many injuries to survive a playoff run against these non-Sam Darnold-led offenses.

Sure enough, both things did them in. Goff turned it over three times in the first half, then one more for good measure at the end with the game basically out of reach. The Lions also did themselves no favors when they threw a pick on a trick play in a 38-28 game in the fourth quarter with Jameson Williams making a bonehead throw. Maybe burn that one, Ben Johnson.

But I think the clear turning point was in the second quarter. You have this fun offensive game going on. Terry McLaurin just took a pass 58 yards to the end zone for a 17-14 lead. You think Detroit is going to answer, then bang, Goff throws a bad pick-six, he gets absolutely destroyed by a cheap shot to the face on the return. That should have been a penalty to negate the touchdown and make Washington earn it on offense. Instead, they get nothing in their favor and Goff leaves the game momentarily.

That’s what started the Lions chasing a 10-point deficit the rest of the night. You like to think you can get one score before halftime, but Goff threw another pick. Then when you think you have some answers in the fourth quarter, you leave 12 men on the field defensively on a 4th-and-2, and the Commanders convert one that way in embarrassing fashion for Dan Campbell’s staff.

Then the Williams pick disaster happened, and just like that, it’s 45-28 with half a quarter to go and your season is essentially over. You can’t make up that turnover deficit against such a hot offense that played mistake free football. Daniels diagnosed the blitz so well, he didn’t take any sacks, no turnovers, and they were 3-of-4 on fourth down (not including the 12 men penalty).

It’s crazy to think the Lions were closer to winning last year’s Super Bowl than this one. I made sure not to blame Goff or Campbell’s decision making for last year’s blown lead in San Francisco in the title game. That was more about the Josh Reynold drops, the Gibbs fumble, and the deflected pass to Aiyuk that could have been picked. But this time around? Yeah, Goff shit the bed and that defense just didn’t have any answers for Daniels and company outside of a poorly run sneak by Marcus Mariota on the opening drive.

Just spectacular stuff from Washington, the only road team to win this postseason. They have one more tough task left, but why shouldn’t the best rookie quarterback ever become the first to start a Super Bowl? That’d be a hell of a story.

It also puts to shame these teams who talk about multi-year rebuilding plans and act like you need so many years to get competitive. This team won 4 games last year, hired a retread in Dan Quinn, a retread OC in Kliff Kingsbury, signed cast-off veterans like Zach Ertz and Austin Ekeler, and it’s all working because they found the right quarterback in Daniels. How can you not be impressed?

As for Detroit, it looks quite possible 2023 was their window to get it done. Beat the 49ers, and they would have had their shot at upsetting the Chiefs without great weapons on KC’s side that year and a head-to-head win to start that season in Arrowhead. The Lions aren’t going to fall off in 2025 most likely, but you wonder if they lose Johnson, what happens to the offensive creativity, and is Goff someone you can trust to go the distance in the playoffs? The defense should be healthier, but I question even if they had Aidan Hutchinson if they still have enough stars to be a championship unit on that side of the ball.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1880907234705567754

But I genuinely feel bad for Detroit fans because I thought this was going to be their year. Their aggressive calls on fourth down could have been quite the show against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl if the No. 1 seeds met. Now, maybe Washington can be that team with a true gamer and demon at quarterback in Daniels.

Rams at Eagles: Saquon the Snow Angel

My expectations for this game were low since I didn’t think the Rams had the offense to keep up if the Eagles were going to throw it more, and I expected another big game from Saquon Barkley.

But it turned out to be a good game in the snow thanks to the Rams showing Monday night wasn’t a fluke as they sacked Jalen Hurts seven times, including a couple of drives where they knocked him out of field goal range. They also recorded a safety on a sack where Hurts seemed to have no interest in trying to avoid it just minutes after a bad looking play on his knee on another sack. Maybe he needed some more time but his movement wasn’t great the rest of the game.

That kept the Rams alive, and so did a couple of missed extra points from Jake Elliott. But it’s really a miracle the Rams were 13 yards away from winning this game in the closing seconds when you consider their two lost fumbles in the second half, then giving up three touchdown runs of 40-plus yards in the game. Saquon again gashed them twice for 60+ yard scores, including what should have been the clincher from 78 yards out with 4:36 left.

But that missed extra point made it interesting at 28-15. Matthew Stafford finally started hitting some passes in succession in the no huddle, the Rams managed the clock well to get the first touchdown, and the defense stood tall on the three-and-out after sacking Hurts on an ill-advised second-down pass call.

Stafford had 2:23 left to drive 82 yards for the win, which would have been such a shocker after Barkley’s long run. The drive was going pretty well, but then the Rams had a huge false start, then picked the worst time to let Jalen Carter to crash in for a sack that brought up 4th-and-11. Stafford’s pass really wasn’t even close to Puka Nacua on the sideline and the game was over.

The Eagles had 184 rushing yards on their three big touchdown runs, and just 65 net passing yards to go with it because of the sacks. I thought A.J. Brown would step up after last week’s game, or that DeVonta Smith would be a big factor after he missed the Week 12 game. But they had 6 catches for 35 yards combined in this game.

Throw in Hurts sounding like he was high on pain medication at the end of the game and uncertain about next week, and it’s not the greatest look for next Sunday against the Commanders, who are rolling with confidence right now.

Don’t go penciling that Chiefs-Eagles rematch in by any means. It probably should happen just based on the general strength of these teams and home-field advantage, but they rarely make it look easy.

They still win though. But that was a solid effort from the Rams in weather they’re not used to playing games in.

Texans at Chiefs: When You’re Rusty and Still Win Wire-to-Wire

The Chiefs have broken the brains of so many people that I’m not sure what they’ll do if this team manages to win two more games this season. Even in a game where the Chiefs came out a bit rusty after 24 days since Christmas, they still never trailed, they found ways to make Travis Kelce look like his vintage self, and they put away the Texans with eight sacks and blocked another 35-yard field goal for good measure to the naysayers.

Were the Texans outplaying them early despite the scoreboard? Yeah, I said as much, and if you ignore dreadful special teams. But that all changed halfway through the second quarter. After Hollywood Brown dropped a perfect deep ball, Travis Kelce was left wide open over the middle where he actually made a YAC play for the longest playoff catch of his career (49 yards). The Chiefs finished that drive for a touchdown and led 13-3.

Even after that moment, the Chiefs still outscored the Texans 10-9 before intentionally taking a safety in the final seconds. The game never really felt in doubt, but that won’t stop ESPN from acting like it was a travesty the Texans lost another divisional round game. From Troy Aikman having a fit in the booth about the penalties to graphics like this after the game, they’re really trying to sell it hard that a team who lost wire-to-wire was the better team and something unnatural must have caused this loss:

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1880882765803270549

Yeah, it’s called the Texans played poorly, and the Chiefs took advantage of it.

On Sunday, the NFL supported both the roughing the passer call and late hit on Mahomes’ late slide. Don’t say the NFL never admits to errors, because I have a list of such times they did coming up this week. You may not like the dynamics of those calls with the late slide an issue, but they said any time you go to the head and neck area, it’s likely going to get a call that wouldn’t be changed even if replay assist looked at it.

Also, I can’t believe people are going to pretend like the Chiefs couldn’t overcome a 2nd-and-6, which would have been the situation after the Mahomes scramble without the 15-yard flag. Did the refs give up that touchdown on 3rd-and-goal from the 11 too? A perfect pass to Kelce while falling down to make it 20-12 in the fourth quarter.

Did the officials cause C.J. Stroud to go 1-of-8 in success rate while trailing 20-12 in the fourth quarter? He did that. The Chiefs tackled him cleanly on the opening drive that made him limp, and while he still had some good scrambles in this game, by the end of it he couldn’t move well, Steve Spagnuolo smelled blood in the water, and they racked up four of their eight sacks on one drive.

Then there’s the piss-poor special teams. You could see it on the opening snap when the Chiefs had a 63-yard return, fumbled it, but Houston failed to recover. Then the idiot (Kris Boyd) who forced the fumble threw his helmet off for a 15-yard flag, then had the nerve to go shove his position coach on the sideline.

If that wasn’t enough, the kicker Fairbairn missed an extra point, badly missed a 55-yard field goal they probably shouldn’t have attempted in the cold, and had his 35-yard kick blocked just so the Chiefs can show Denver was no fluke. That’s a 10-point swing on special teams alone, and with the Chiefs getting some good field position on several drives, that helped build up a yardage disparity.

But the other disingenuous part of that 49-0 graphic is the “outgained by 100 yards” stat of it. The Chiefs were outgained by 124 yards (336-212), but they lost 27 yards intentionally on the last drive with a couple of kneeldowns and an intentional safety. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have been outgained by 100 yards and the stat wouldn’t exist. The safety might not have been 100% necessary but the strategy was to avoid a blocked punt return touchdown, the most harmful outcome that could have happened to the Chiefs at that stage of the game.

But I’m really annoyed about hearing about officials when the Texans played this poorly. Both defenders were clearly headhunting too on the play where Mahomes gave himself up and they could have just tagged him down. They took each other out on a head-to-head hit anyway, the same team that knocked out Trevor Lawrence with a nasty concussion this season. Maybe your team just has a target on its back from these plays, Houston.

I don’t see how the ref made DeMeco Ryans delay a decision to go for a fourth-and-10, fail to call timeout, then lose a bunch of yards on a sack. Houston played poorly. Even their 82-yard touchdown drive had to gain 101 yards of offense because they kept shooting themselves in the foot with penalties. It was that inefficient of a performance in turning yards into points.

There are things I’d like to see the Chiefs do better. You’re probably not beating Buffalo with 23 points or 0 catches from Hollywood and DeAndre Hopkins. The designed plays to Worthy felt too gimmicky and not the best use of his emerging talent. The lack of go for the kill shots in Houston territory were alarming from Andy Reid, who seems to get off by keeping the game within one score.

But the Texans did not even come close to deserving to win this game. The Chiefs took advantage of their mistakes and that’s why they’re moving on to host another AFC Championship Game, their seventh appearance in a row.

Next week: Huge rematches on Championship Sunday and so much history at stake. You’re God damn right I want the rookie QB vs. the three-peat in the Super Bowl, but that could be the least likely outcome we get from this final four. The Chiefs will have to overcome their last loss with starters against Buffalo, and the Eagles have to overcome their only loss in their last 15 games against the Commanders. That’s good stuff.

NFL 2024 Divisional Round Predictions: The “Oh Fvck, It’s Finally Here” Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It’s been a pretty long week building up to my favorite NFL week of the year. After a lackluster Wild Card Weekend, I’m ready for some real drama and memorable moments that I think this round, short of a classic Super Bowl, provides the best.

Do we get it? That’s hard to say. I think these four games have a lot of potential for volatility to them.

  • Are the Chiefs rusty as hell with this 24-day window since playing the Steelers, or do they look sharp and easily get past a Houston team that flopped 34-10 in this spot a year ago after one decent half in Baltimore?
  • Does Jayden Daniels only grow his legend in Detroit in a close game, or is this payback for 1991 NFC-CG (41-10 win by Washington) and another rookie QB gets routed on the road in the playoffs by a +222 scoring differential juggernaut? I do like that it’s indoors given this week is cold as fvck and that’s probably going to hamper the other games.
  • Do Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry just run wild over the Rams and Bills again, or will Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson actually need to throw the ball for more than 150 yards this week? And can Jackson do it in the cold without his best wide receiver (Zay Flowers)?

All I know is home teams were 5-1 last week. The team who won the previous game was 3-1 in rematches. Only one losing team scored more than 14 points. Washington was the team that broke through for all three stats. Let’s see what happens this time around.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

At least we’ll get my main rooting interest this weekend out of the way first.

Texans at Chiefs (-8.5)

The Chiefs win a playoff game by more than one possession? Surely you jest. But I am nervous about this one, just because it’d be a devastating blow to see the three-peat end with this opponent in the divisional round. Losing next week to either team is whatever. It’s logical. This would even be logical if the Texans had Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, but instead they’re limping in with only Nico Collins and JAGS while hoping the defense gets a bunch of takeaways. Let’s not forget how bad Houston looked in the first half last week, which says a lot about how bad the Chargers were.

But it’s the rust thing too. 24 days off for starters is historic. I think people are reading this as a criticism of Patrick Mahomes too, but it’s not even about that. I trust him more than anyone on the Chiefs to show up. But what if it is a slow start on both sides of the ball, and you see the Chiefs get into trouble the way they did against Houston in the 2019 AFC-D when they fell behind 24-0? That’s dropped passes, a blown coverage TD on defense, a special teams mistake, etc. — All things this team is clearly capable of doing in 2024 too.

What they’re not capable of doing in 2024 anymore is coming back from a 24-0 deficit in the blink of an eye. They’ve been too methodical on offense and don’t have the big runs and YAC plays to get it done like that anymore. The Chiefs are also riding a record-tying streak of 7 games without a turnover, so that could snap in this game but they better just hope it’s not multiple turnovers or that they lose the battle there by multiple turnovers. Defense can contribute too.

But yeah, I could see someone like Jaylen Watson taking a misstep or missing an assignment in his first game since October. He has the best excuse to be rusty for the Chiefs in this game.

The Chiefs losing this game would plague hell on my mentions this weekend. But for the people talking about point differential, let’s not forget the Texans are 372 points scored, 372 points allowed this season. That’s not an impressive team. C.J. Stroud has yet to win a playoff game where his defense/ST allowed more than a net 3 points.

I think the Chiefs are playing with fire in a way that isn’t really their fault because of scheduling, getting the No. 1 seed, and injuries to key players. But working in a new LT (Humphries or Tuney) and WRs (Hollywood) this late in the year against a good pass rush isn’t the greatest. Of course, Week 16 happened too, and that’s why I’m not that concerned.

Just survive the first half and the Chiefs should be fine. But no, I’m not picking them to cover. This is the Kansas City special. They don’t cover but they still win.

Final: Chiefs 24, Texans 17

Commanders at Lions (-9.5)

Pretty cool to see the only two teams in NFL history to have 3 games in a season with 0 punts/turnovers face each other in the playoffs. I hope it is a 4th-down fever dream from both sides with dazzling plays and second guessing all night — a game so weird that David Lynch is looking down and nodding in approval.

I like those stats that the Lions have failed to win by 10 points in 8-of-9 games where they allowed 20 points and also in games where they turn it over once. I think Washington can achieve both of those things in this game, especially the scoring since they’ve had at least 18 in every game.

But it’s tough for a rookie to win games like this, and Daniels already exceeded expectations last week. Still, I’m going with the same score I had last week, the same score the Commanders lost in Baltimore this year.

Final: Lions 30, Commanders 23

Rams at Eagles (-6.5)

Yeah, you’re not going to convince me this probably won’t be the worst game this weekend. I just don’t care for watching the Eagles most of the time, and that GB game last week is a pretty solid example for why. I wish they showed a little more care in throwing the ball, but maybe this game will get it from them.

But I expect Saquon Barkley to do well without the 70-yard touchdown runs this time. You just can’t stop that line from dominating right now. Then you have an LA team on the road that hasn’t topped 20 offensive points in any of Stafford’s last 4 starts. He’s become so dependent on Puka Nacua. They haven’t scored much on the Eagles the last two years. I have very low hopes for the Rams in this one, but I do think McVay is a better coach than Sirianni, and that defense has been playing very well in the last month. You never know.

Final: Eagles 23, Rams 14

Ravens at Bills (+1.5)

I see we’re already doing that thing where “Lamar should win as the favorite” in a game where the spread has gone from Buffalo -1 to Ravens -1.5, which is still tiny as these teams are so close this year they even have the same scoring differential (+157).

More than Half of my 6,000-word AFC preview was spent on this game, so I’ve said a lot about it already.. But my main takeaway has been this:

I said it before the season that the Ravens bomb in the playoffs because they try to be the offense they aren’t with throwing the ball and leaning on Lamar to do everything. They can’t do that in this game, especially with Zay Flowers out. I think if the Ravens play bully ball and stick with the run and 2-TE formations and Lamar does very well as a dual-threat, then the Ravens have a very good chance of winning this game. Their D has been the best at limiting points in the second half of the season and they already held Buffalo to a season-low 10 points.

But do I trust the Ravens to do that if they fall behind 7 or 10 points? Will they just panic again and abandon Henry and lead Lamar into trouble in what could be the coldest game of his career? This guy is dressed like Ralphie in A Christmas Story in Houston weather. He’s going to be freezing in Buffalo.

If the game was in Baltimore, I don’t think I’d be questioning it as much. But I’m more in the camp that I need to see this team do something differently in a game like this before I believe fully in them to pull it off. So yeah, I’m probably in that mindset that if the Ravens win this game, they’ll beat the Chiefs next week as I said after Week 1 they’ll feel good for the rematch. And if it’s Houston, then hell yeah they’re going to the Super Bowl. Both of these teams will feel SB bound if that first game Saturday goes Houston’s way.

But that’s the thing. I don’t think this game is going to live up to the hype because of the weather and the fact that QB duels rarely pan out in the playoffs. It’s the defense. It’s the better OL/running game. It’s turnovers, which Buffalo better watch out for cause they are long overdue for some fumbles going against them. It’s rarely the QBs, and the four Jackson-Allen games to date haven’t been QB masterclasses at all.

Do the Ravens still win ugly games? Because they might have to here. Haven’t won a game without scoring 28 points this year, but it could happen here if the defense shows up against Allen. I don’t see the Ravens scoring 28 at all. The under 51.5 is one of my favorite picks this week, and if you’re betting on the Ravens to lose, you should probably consider under 16.5 alternate points (think it’s like +500) to keep in line with the “Lamar scores his season low in the playoffs” stat.

But I think it is a coin flip game. The Ravens are more battle tested. They kicked Buffalo’s ass already. They’re better built for this weather right now. But they just have to show us that they can adapt in a playoff game and handle the pressure on the road.

Also, I hope I’m wrong about this game. I hope it is a QB classic, but I just don’t see it living up to 2021 Allen-Mahomes in the divisional round. But the funny thing about that game is the legacy would be even greater if the Chiefs won the Super Bowl that year. They didn’t even get there, losing to the Bengals the following week.

And that’s my other point about this game. For the winner, don’t get too cocky. All this hype about the MVP and this game, it doesn’t mean a damn thing if your team just goes into Kansas City next week and loses again, putting that team one game away from a three-peat, the closest anyone’s ever been.

This is not the end, but it is for one of these teams.

Final: Bills 24, Ravens 20

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Wild Card Weekend

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

No matter what an NFL team does for 18 weeks, no matter how much work you put into reviewing their season and predicting their playoff fate, sometimes a pick parade happens, and you end up with the first 32-12 final in NFL history.

That goofy result in Houston, during their annual Bill O’Brien Saturday Afternoon Invitational, was a harbinger of the weekend to come with one-sided games won by the home team up until Sunday night when we finally got some drama courtesy of Jayden Daniels and the misadventures in snaps from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

There’s still a Monday night game between the Vikings and Rams to come, but it wasn’t the most exciting wild card weekend. That’s for sure. The Commanders-Bucs game was the only one of the five games with a second-half lead change. The only one with a comeback opportunity. The only one where both teams scored more than 14 points.

But I guess a lot of the paper tigers and heavily flawed teams have been eliminated, so we’re still on track for a good divisional round.  

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Commanders at Buccaneers: The Best Rookie Quarterback Season Ever

When Jayden Daniels scored a garbage-time touchdown run in Tampa Bay in Week 1 to produce a 37-20 final, I loved it because it allowed me to hit an improbable SGP where I had Daniels and Mike Evans both scoring two touchdowns.

Little did I know that score would keep alive a streak where the Commanders have scored at least 18 points in all 18 games this season, the 12th team in NFL history to do that, and they have a chance to become just the third to do it in 19 games as their season will continue another week after winning yet another close game in Tampa Bay this time.

After that garbage-time touchdown run by Daniels in Week 1, he made some unique history against the Giants in Week 2 when he led his offense to 7 field goals on 7 drives, the only game in NFL history like that. But Week 3 in Cincinnati was the game where I was truly sold on the kid after he put up 38 points on six drives, scoring every time he had the ball. Then he scored his first two drives in Arizona, meaning 16 straight scoring drives when you exclude kneeldowns. No known streak in NFL history by one quarterback exceeds that.

Then even when Daniels lost a game in Baltimore against a contender, I was still impressed with the way he handled himself, throwing for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns, and he led his team in rushing with 22 yards that day as little help was provided. He had no turnovers.

Then the Hail Mary happened against Chicago, and while that’s a lucky play to get the tip, his ability to manufacture that drive, get it close enough, and extend the play long enough to pull that off was impressive. The rib injury may have slowed him down for a few weeks there, but after the bye week, he’s been very good and leading his team like a veteran with several more clutch game-winning drives like the efforts against the Eagles and Falcons.

I think Daniels had arguably the best regular season ever for a rookie quarterback when you consider he threw for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, and rushed for 891 yards and 6 more scores to lead his team in rushing. That’s the kind of dual-threat season that only Lamar Jackson has pulled off this year, and at least he has Derrick Henry to help him out now. Daniels has often been the leading rusher in games for his team, and it happened again in his first playoff game.

But I think this road playoff win is also the cherry on top for giving him the edge over the likes of Ben Roethlisberger (2004), Dak Prescott (2016), and C.J. Stroud (2023) for the best rookie quarterback season ever.

Daniels just played a playoff game where his offense never punted and never turned the ball over, the kind of feat only Peyton Manning (2003 vs. Chiefs) and Josh Allen (2021 vs. Patriots) have achieved in the postseason. Granted, the Commanders turned it over on downs twice, but they also converted a few times that led to huge touchdowns that were the difference in the game.

There were only seven possessions for each team in this game, so mistakes were going to get magnified. Unfortunately for Baker Mayfield, a fumble is going to be the play people remember best from this game. The Bucs were up 17-13 and got the ball back after holding the Commanders on 4th-and-goal. I also mean literally holding as it sure looked like DPI should have been called on the Bucs for how they grabbed Zach Ertz in the end zone.

But right after Mike Evans made a great stretch effort to get a first down, the Bucs got cute with a little trickery in the backfield and the timing of the play was off, resulting in a fumbled snap that the Commaders recovered and used to go 13 yards for the go-ahead touchdown after Daniels found Terry McLaurin on a 4th-and-2.

What a crushing play and I really don’t think they needed to do something like that. I’m not sure if the plan was to hand it off or fake the handoff, but they screwed it up. Then with the chance to take the lead, the Bucs screwed that up too with Baker getting stopped on a run, setting up a 3rd-and-1 where the center’s snap timing was off, resulting in a 2-yard loss. Another snap disaster for the Bucs.

With 4:45 left, I can understand the rationale from Todd Bowles for the game-tying field goal on 4th-and-3 at the 14. You like to think you’ll get the ball back with four clock stoppages left. I don’t hate the decision to kick it, but maybe we have to start recognizing Daniels in that Patrick Mahomes kind of light as someone you simply don’t want to have the ball last.

Sure enough, Daniels was able to burn the last 4:41 while putting his team in range for an easy field goal. He used his arms and legs to get the job done. I don’t think Bowles made the best use of his timeouts either. It was going to be a 37-yard field goal by Washington as the final play of regulation, so barely longer than an extra point.

But when they showed this clip of kicker Zane Gonzalez constantly rubbing his hair as some sort of pre-kick ritual, I thought for sure this goofy MFer was going to blow the kick.

The truth is he kind of did, because the kick hit the upright only to get the favorable bounce through to send the Commanders to the divisional round for the first time since the 2005 season and to send the Buccaneers home after a crushing home loss.

Tampa will be stewing all offseason over some of those decisions like the fumbled snaps and kicking the field goal. As for Washington, this is what happens when you find the right quarterback in the draft. Daniels had a historic playoff debut, because the history of rookie quarterbacks on the road in the postseason is brutal.

In nearly 30 chances from all rookies in NFL history, Daniels joins just Sammy Baugh (the original Washington legend) from 1937 as the only rookies to win on the road while throwing for 200 yards, while throwing more than one touchdown pass, and while beating a team that actually scored more than 14 points as most rookies who in (Mark Sanchez/Joe Flacco variety) on the road in the playoffs do it on the back of a dominant defense. That’s not a multi-stat qualifier. Those are three different things where he joins Baugh as the only quarterbacks to do, and they did them all in the same game.

Daniels is “just built different” as they say these days. Washington will have its shot to shock the Lions in Detroit next.

Packers at Eagles: I Like Detroit Even More for the Super Bowl

This was the only game I predicted to be decided by double digits this weekend. I had the Eagles winning by 11 and they won by 12, so close enough. But what a terrible game to watch, and it was bad from the start when the Packers fumbled the opening kickoff. They definitely fumbled, but in a rare case, we had a close-up shot of the players fighting for the ball and what looked like a pretty decent recovery effort by the Packers to get it back:

At what point can you say the play is long over, the Packer has the ball, and is down by contact? I think that was a garbage call to say “the play stands” and give the Eagles the ball there. That was a huge call too as the Eagles needed that short field (28 yards) to get their early touchdown, because the offense was not good.

I don’t know if it was the concussion or what had Jalen Hurts out of sorts, but he was 6/13 for 39 yards at halftime despite the Eagles feeding him three turnovers from the Packers. Unfortunately, Jordan Love and the Packers couldn’t take advantage of that slow start from the passing game for Philly that saw A.J. Brown catch one ball for 10 yards and get some reading in on the sideline.

Injuries also hurt the Packers dearly as they lost multiple offensive linemen and wide receivers in this game after Christian Watson already tore his ACL last week. That’s how you end up with Bo Melton and “Malik Heath” as the targets on some of your most important plays of the season. I was waiting for Jeff Janis to show up.

In the second half, every slight answer by the Packers was met by the Eagles. A Green Bay field goal to make it 10-3 was met immediately by Dallas Goedert going off for a 24-yard touchdown that included three stiff arms of the same defender (Carrington Valentine), who might need to change his name now to avoid the shame of that highlight for Goedert.

Josh Jacobs played hard in his playoff debut for the Packers and ran hard for a great run to set up a touchdown that made it 16-10 with nearly a whole quarter to play. But instead of the defense stepping up, it let the Eagles burn half the quarter with one Tush Push along the way for a field goal that made it 19-10.

Love didn’t play well at all, but I thought his 4th-and-3 pass would have been a routine catch by a player like Romeo Doubs or Jayden Reed if they were healthy and in the game instead of Heath, who landed out of bounds with 5:03 left to end the last real threat. The Packers also were undisciplined and picked up a few silly 15-yard flags for late hits on Saquon Barkley, who was fine with a 100-yard game he only clinched in garbage time with the game wrapped up.

Actually, Love’s interception in the end zone at the 2-minute warning was some pretty blatant DPI on the Eagles, and that should have set up a first-and-goal at the 1. But the Packers already felt so defeated in a 22-10 game where they were down to one timeout that no one seemed to mind the missed call.

The Packers (11-7) finish this season getting swept by the Lions, Vikings, and Eagles as they just couldn’t beat the elite teams they were able to defeat in 2023. That’s a good formula for a one-and-done season as the No. 7 seed.

I guess we should assume the Eagles will play better than this in the rest of the playoffs, but if I’m Detroit, I don’t fear this team one bit. Not after this game.

Broncos at Bills: Sean Payton, You Tease

If you told me the Broncos wouldn’t score another point after their opening drive, I wouldn’t have believed it. Bo Nix was abandoned again by his running game, put in terrible situations all day by Sean Payton’s offense, and yet he still delivered a third-and-8 conversion and a beautiful 43-yard touchdown strike to Tony Franklin to start the game.

Maybe that should have been a warning sign that this wouldn’t be sustainable offense, but I thought it was an incredible start that showed Nix is ready for the big moment. Unfortunately, the Broncos wasted their fake punt by not going anywhere after it, then they had the loudest field goal miss I ever heard before halftime that should have made it 10-10, a spot they had to feel very comfortable with given the way their defense was getting shredded by Buffalo’s ground game and great offensive line.

But I think the game was largely lost for Denver in the second and third quarters between the weak play calls on early downs where Payton was trying to protect Nix by only making his job harder in having to convert third-and-longs.

In the third quarter, Denver went three-and-out twice with Nix only getting to drop back on third down when he needed 5 and 11 yards. That’s rubbish, and his receivers could have been better with their hands after some big drops in the game.

But the crucial drive came when Buffalo was up 13-7 in the third. Josh Allen threw a hospital ball to running back Ray Davis, which led him to a big hit that knocked him out of the game. That should have brought up third-and-13, but instead it is an automatic first down because of the flag for unnecessary roughness. The NFL made this switch years ago, and I still hate it every single time and say it shouldn’t be a penalty. The flag didn’t stop the hit, which only happened because of a terrible Allen throw that led his back right into contact.

The defender even pulled up and led with the shoulder, so he didn’t go for a helmet-to-helmet hit. I hate the way the offense gets these calls now. Later on that drive, the Bills faced a 4th-and-1. Allen scrambled for almost 7 seconds before throwing to the back of the end zone for Ty Johnson, another talented back in this offense who has done damage as a receiver. He somehow was able to keep his knee in bounds (or close enough on replay) before his foot touched out of bounds for a huge 24-yard touchdown.

I’ve said this is the difference in Buffalo this year and should share some of those numbers this week. Allen’s passes to targets in the backfield are having a huge impact since the Bills use these players down the field in mismatches. In fact, you’d be surprised how much production out of backfield targets goes to helping a quarterback win MVP. Those plays are a huge boost.

Then the Bills blew the game open on the first play of the fourth quarter when terrible tackling led to a 55-yard touchdown for Curtis Samuel to make it 28-7. Game over. The Bills held the ball for 41:43 as the Broncos couldn’t sustain offense and couldn’t slow down their running attack.

In the end, I think you have to say the Denver defense was a paper tiger this year. Patrick Surtain II might still win DPOY but not sure he had any real impact in this game. The Broncos had their worst games of the season defensively on the road against teams like the Bills, Chargers, Bengals, and Ravens, who all scored 30+. Even their 16-14 loss in Kansas City will go down as their sixth-worst game of the season in defensive EPA.

Tampa Bay was really the only qualify offense this defense slowed down this year, so that’s a disappointing way to end the season. But Payton needs to show more trust in Nix than he did in this game. He won’t be able to use the rookie excuse next time.

Steelers at Ravens: The Standard Continues

If I just started pasting in paragraphs from past articles about Pittsburgh playoff losses, would anyone even notice? They do the same thing every time, after all. This one from four years ago after they fell behind 28-0 to the Browns and lost has a lot of the same things I could go over for Saturday night’s 28-14 loss in Baltimore.

What really changed this time? Oh, there weren’t any turnovers in the game. I guess that’s an improvement on offense where they didn’t give up return scores or easy field position. Then again, I liked the fight the offense showed in some of those losses with Roethlisberger at quarterback instead of the pathetic no-show in the first half when they punted four times Saturday.

But let’s be clear. Russell Wilson was not the issue, and Justin Fields sure as hell wouldn’t have done any better in a game they were going to have to score a lot of points to win. The problem is Wilson has limitations and there’s no way you’re winning games like this with him at this stage of his career.

But the Steelers aren’t winning games like this with Mike Tomlin’s defense, which continues to be on the worst run in playoff history. That’s now six straight playoff games allowing 28+ points. No other team has more than four such games. That’s 230 points allowed in six playoff games, also a record.

The Steelers were 10-3 and ended this year with five straight wire-to-wire losses. That’s pathetic. They couldn’t even take a 3-0 lead in any of these games.

On Saturday night, they took their historically-bad playoff defense up against Lamar Jackson’s historically underperforming playoff offense, and Jackson won the matchup by halftime with a 21-0 lead and over 200 total yards from offense with his arm and legs. Derrick Henry also crucified them on the ground, and Lamar was making the Steelers look silly with the zone-read option, 2012’s trendiest offensive wrinkle in the NFL. T.J. Watt looked like he’s never defended it in his life, constantly crashing in on Henry while Lamar still had the ball. Amateur hour.

I’d say more, but what’s the point? It’s the same shit every year and nothing ever changes in Pittsburgh. It’s the worst form of NFL purgatory where you have no chance at a high draft pick, and you have no real shot to win a playoff game. Rinse and repeat. Best thing I can say is the fans were so uninterested in this game that even they weren’t taking the bait that this time would be any different.

If you start losing the fans, if you start being met with apathy, that should finally cause a shake-up with who is running this team. But until they fire Tomlin and find their next visionary coach, the standard is going to be the standard.

Chargers at Texans: Chargering Is Unstoppable

“It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead.”

That’s Kyle Reese warning Chargers fans about the curse of Chargering placed on their team. I thought Jim Harbaugh would fix it, but even he couldn’t overcome it in a playoff loss that stands to be more embarrassing than the blown 27-0 lead in Jacksonville.

At least in Jacksonville, I can say the 27-0 lead was unearned, propped up by short fields from an absurd number of takeaways before the defense blew it by playing a terrible half, and a kicker missing a 40-yard field goal that should have been enough.

But this time? I never would have believed Justin Herbert would implode like this. Not after he came out dealing with a backup tight end snatching a pass for 15 yards on the opening drive. This was going to be a vintage Herbert game. Instead, it’s the game that’s going to keep him out of every top quarterback discussion until he proves he can perform in the playoffs.

Sure, there were flaws as the short-yardage running game was terrible, Quentin Johnston predictably failed to catch a single ball in his playoff debut, and the lack of polished receivers after Ladd McConkey (he was incredible) proved to be a disaster for the Chargers.

But a lot of this was on Herbert too. After C.J. Stroud threw a pick, Herbert immediately negated it by tossing his first, forcing a deep ball on the next snap. He threw just 3 interceptions all year, and while that was always likely to regress against a high-pressure, high-takeaway defense, you don’t expect him to throw the most interceptions of his pro football career in this game.

The crusher came late in the third quarter when Herbert’s pass for McConkey was too high and intercepted for a touchdown to put the Chargers behind 20-6. Then Will Dissly dropped and deflected a pass that should have been caught for Herbert’s third pick. That one wasn’t his fault, but a lot of damage had already been done. He added a fourth pick in garbage time when it was 32-12.

But what a disastrous game as the Texans were struggling to get things going for most of the half only to still find themselves leading 10-6 at halftime. That should have been the first sign this was going to go south for the Chargers. They watched Stroud get away with an intentional grounding penalty in the end zone for a probable safety, then a bad snap led to a big play that sparked that 99-yard touchdown drive.

Then they take away a pick from Derwin James in the third quarter in the end zone that leads to a Houston field goal. Not great. That all led up to the pick parade, but the pass rush also amped up on Herbert once the Texans had some confidence they were going to win this game. Herbert was creamed in the fourth quarter.

Even after an 86-yard touchdown to McConkey, the Chargers made history by having their extra point blocked, Dicker the Kicker knocked it down instead of recovering the live ball, and the Texans returned it for the first ever defensive 2-point return in NFL playoff history to make it 25-12. Yep, that’s Chargers BINGO at that point.

This is the worst loss for the Chargers since losing that AFC divisional round game to the Mark Sanchez-led Jets in 2009. It might even be worse than that since it’s a game that shows Herbert and Harbaugh aren’t above results like this, and the Chargers are still not ready to overtake the Chiefs in the AFC West.

It really puts the Chargers in a bad spot where their best hope is to be a wild card team that is prone to having a brutal loss in the first round. I just went over that with Pittsburgh, so I can tell you it’s not a fun spot to be in at all for a fan.

See it for enough years and you just lose interest. Apathy sets in. Hope is such a better product to sell fans, because for a franchise that’s never won a Super Bowl, all they know is hope and potential.

But right now, it’s hard to see what hope the Chargers have that doesn’t simply include Andy Reid and Travis Kelce deciding to retire in a month, Bo Nix being a fraud, the Raiders hiring another bum QB/coach duo, and finding Herbert another great receiver to pair with McConkey.

Even then, Chargering just feels inevitable for this team. You can’t escape it.

Next week: It’s my favorite playoff round, but that doesn’t always mean the games will be great. Hard to not top this week, though. You can expect research on playoff rest with the Chiefs having an extended break here before they face Houston. Commanders-Lions is a fresh matchup that should be great for the offenses on Saturday night. I think Vikings-Rams at Eagles has dud written all over it, but we’ll see. Then the most hyped game of the year to this point will be Ravens at Bills. Early prediction: It won’t be a QB-driven shootout. They almost never are when they’re hyped this way, but I have all weak to explain that one.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 17

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

In picking NFL games weekly for over 20 years, I still long for the week where I go 16-0. I’ve been 15-1 before, and if the Lions take care of the 49ers Monday night, then Week 17 will be a 15-1 week too.

But those god damn Colts just had to screw it up with the upset of the week against the lowest-scoring team in the league. So, I’ll wait for another chance to go 16-0, and this would have been a great week as favorites absolutely killed it with a 14-1 record so far.

Most of the games weren’t even that competitive with only six games featuring a comeback opportunity, and we didn’t have a single fourth-quarter lead change in the NFL from the time Sam Darnold threw that touchdown to Justin Jefferson in Seattle last week up until the Falcons-Commanders game tonight.

It’s been a long week, and I’m not even going to bother covering Wednesday and Thursday’s games here. Let’s get to it.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Falcons at Commanders: Welcome to the Salary Cap Era, Washington

One of my favorite annual stats to cite is no longer true. When I had to write about the Washington franchise, I always pointed out how this is the only NFL team that hasn’t had an 11-win season in the salary cap era since 1994. Every other team’s had multiple 11-win seasons in that time.

Well, the Commanders represent a new era for the franchise, Daniel Snyder is no longer the owner, and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is their savior. Daniels was again historic as a dual-threat on the night in a comeback win against Atlanta, and the Commanders are 11-5 and heading to the playoffs behind the player I think is the MVP of the league this year.

It wasn’t a great start as the Falcons led 17-7, but the Commanders were hurting themselves with a lot of offensive holding penalties, a penalty these refs were calling very tight all night and sometimes on both teams.

But the Commanders controlled the clock in the second half, and Daniels was almost perfect down the stretch. He led a long go-ahead touchdown drive to start the fourth quarter, he had a touchdown pass to put them up 11 negated by another holding penalty, and then after Michael Penix Jr. led a clutch game-tying touchdown drive by converting on multiple 4th-and-longs, Daniels again threw a strike on 3rd-and-10 deep to a streaking receiver.

But the pass was dropped, and the Commanders went three-and-out in the final minute of a tied game. That looked like it might cost them, but the Falcons badly mismanaged their two timeouts by wasting time and not getting closer for their new kicker, Riley Patterson. After getting a DPI penalty, they tried a 56-yard field goal that was straight enough but short, so we went to overtime.

The Commanders won the toss and Daniels in his first overtime game did not give Atlanta the ball back. He controlled the drive with his arm and legs on a night where he ran it 16 times for 127 yards before throwing his third touchdown pass to Zach Ertz, who made a nice catch in the end zone to put an end to this one at 30-24.

The Falcons (8-8) are back to being in trouble for the playoffs, because they picked the worst time to blow their first fourth-quarter lead in the Raheem Morris era. But they really blew the clock management in each half of this one. I’m not sure why teams are getting so bad at not calling timeouts or spiking the ball or getting the next play in quicker. Someone like Peyton Manning has to be watching these games in disgust with the poor jobs we’re seeing around the league.

But Daniels looks like the next big thing in the NFL. We’ll get to see what he can do in the playoffs where he can enhance his legacy after one of the greatest rookie quarterback seasons ever.

Arguably the greatest when you consider his efficiency, his dual-threat ability, the way he makes up for the defense to win games with clutch moments, and he’s doing it for a franchise that hasn’t known success like this in decades.

Broncos at Bengals: Sean Payton Choke Meme

Some coincidence that our only two game-winning drives in Week 17 came courtesy of rookie quarterbacks forcing overtime on the road in 30-24 games that didn’t feel like they were ever going to end with some piss-poor game management from each team.

This was the better game of the two with the higher stakes, and watching the Denver defense hold Cincinnati to just a touchdown in the first half. It really felt like another Cincinnati playoff game where the offense looked tight, underwhelming, and the defense was stepping up in a 10-10 game to start the fourth quarter.

But the floodgates really opened in the fourth quarter with the teams exchanging touchdowns before they exchanged turnovers with a Tee Higgins fumble and a bad Bo Nix interception. That pick and a big pass to Ja’Marr Chase gave the Bengals a 1st-and-10 at the Denver 21 at the 2-minute warning with the Broncos down to two timeouts.

Now this is a situation where you would love to manage the clock so that if you take a couple of plays to get a first down, you could time this up to win 20-17 on a field goal on the final snap, the best way to end a game like this. But the Bengals, a team with minimal success in these situations over the years, botched it big time. They completed a pass to Chase Bronw that led the back out of bounds, then Burrow threw an incomplete pass, so that’s two snaps that took 9 seconds and saved both timeouts for Denver. Horrible job.

After converting a third down, the Bengals tried to run with Brown, who made an understandable decision to not score. But he must not be a baseball player as his slide technique was bad and he injured his ankle on the play, which cost his team a timeout. Not good. If he goes down properly, they could just take 2 knees and kick a field goal in the last 10 seconds to win this one.

That changed things, but it was still weird to see Burrow just sneak it in for a touchdown that Denver probably didn’t mind given the circumstances. The Broncos were going to get the ball back with 1:29 and a timeout. That’s pretty good, and the other reason you fear being up a touchdown instead of a field goal in that situation is that the team could always go for two and the win should they score. If it’s a field goal game, they’re just going to get the field goal most likely.

Sure enough, the Cincinnati defense let down after an encouraging game to that point. I’m not sure it was the greatest game management once the Broncos got inside the 35, but on a 4th-and-1, Nix showed some stones when he threw deep for Marvin Mims for a 25-yard touchdown with 8 seconds left.

Originally, it looked like the Broncos were going to go for two, but they changed their minds after a review confirmed the touchdown. This has been the big second-guessing moment after the game if they should have just gone for the 2-point conversion there to win the game.

But this was an unusual circumstance, because an overtime tie for Denver is just as good as a win in getting them into the playoffs. With that knowledge, I can totally buy going for the extra point and overtime. There’s also the fact that I think Joe Burrow has one of the weakest killer instincts in the NFL and I wouldn’t fear going to overtime with him one bit.

Sure enough, the Bengals got the ball first in overtime, and as soon as the drive reached midfield with the Bengals in position to go win the game, Burrow took back-to-back sacks and the team had to punt. Tale as old as time.

But the Broncos also went three-and-out, so that was bad. Their playcalling down the stretch was brutal, including a very ill-timed screen pass in the fourth quarter that almost lost the game earlier for them.

The Bengals took their second overtime drive and wasted it with a 33-yard field goal that hit the upright on third down. Why kick it a down early when you have time to get even closer? That kick isn’t hitting the upright if the kick was a few yards closer. Typical Zac Taylor in these spots.

With 2:43 left, a competent team would make Cincy pay for this, but the Broncos have not looked smart these last few weeks. I’m far more annoyed by Payton’s approach to this drive than any decision to kick an extra point at the end of regulation. First, he saved the Bengals time by calling multiple timeouts on defense on the previous drive. Would have been more beneficial to let that tick down if they were just going to choke anyway. Remember, the tie is cool for Denver and season ending for Cincinnati.

But then to not see the opportunity with 2:43 left that a first down or two ends the game and gets you in the playoffs? Awful. The Broncos ran three bad plays, punted, and only used up 23 seconds.

Burrow found Higgins for 31 yards on their best connection of the day down the sideline, then instead of relying on a backup kicker, they just threw a touchdown from 3 yards out to win it 30-24 and keep hope alive.

But I can’t help but point out how bad the game management was for both teams. If you’re the Bengals, you want to win that 20-17 in regulation and avoid this mess. That’s what the Chiefs would do in that spot, and yet people would have the nerve to bash them for winning a low-scoring 20-17 game. Meanwhile, that’s just smart football. 30-24 with all these extra possessions is just dumb.

However, that’s why these teams are fighting with Miami to be the last ones in the tournament and go to Buffalo. They’re not good teams this year. But they did make for an entertaining game and finish on Saturday.

Packers at Vikings: Sam Darnold Takeover

Remember in 2019 when Dan Orlovsky would make that ridiculous point about Carson Wentz “taking over” games for the Eagles? I’m not sure what made me think of that from this game, but I saw the way Sam Darnold was just completely outplaying Jordan Love, who struggled to get to 100 passing yards, and it made me think of the way Darnold just took this game over with 377 passing yards on 43 attempts despite the Vikings never trailing after it was 3-0 early.

Darnold had a fantastic game again. Sure, he threw the one pick when they were up big and it led to a little comeback attempt from the Packers that made this one scary at 27-25 with 2:18 left after the Packers wisely went for two. Someone explain to Tom Brady why they did that, please. Greg Olsen knows.

But with Aaron Jones injured, the Vikings needed to salt this one away with the passing game, and Darnold delivered on his last few attempts in the four-minute offense to make sure the Packers never touched the ball again.

You like a safer ending than that, but you’ll gladly take the big win for the Vikings, who swept the Packers with a pair of 2-point wins where Green Bay never had the ball in the fourth quarter while trailing by one score. That’s hard to pull off against an 11-win team, but they did it twice this year, and now they are going to be in Detroit next Sunday night for the No. 1 seed. Incredible stuff.

As for the Packers, my preseason Super Bowl pick, it’s very alarming the way they’ve lost to the Lions twice, the Vikings twice, and also in Brazil against the Eagles in Week 1. They made it look close enough at the end of these games, but you have to beat these teams in the playoffs to get to the Super Bowl, and that’s not looking strong right now.

But maybe they have a revenge tour in mind. We’ll just have to see as this division has been fantastic, and it’s getting the proper send-off with one of the best regular-season games in NFL history as it could be a pair of 14-2 teams if Detroit wins Monday night.

Jets at Bills: The New Three Stooges

And to think this game looked like it might decide the AFC East back in May when the schedule came out. But at least the Jets didn’t have to worry about blowing a fourth-quarter lead this time. They were down 40-0 before getting some points with Tyrod Taylor replacing Aaron Rodgers in the fourth quarter. That’s the first time in Rodgers’ career he trailed by 40 points in a game.

Anyone touting this as an MVP performance for Josh Allen just had their mind made up before the game even started. This shouldn’t move the needle as he finished with 199 total yards and 3 touchdowns, including a 1-yard sneak on 1st-and-goal to start the game. But the Bills only had 10 points on offense in the first half. The short fields they kept getting from the defense blew this one open after the Bills scored touchdowns of 38, 37, and 15 yards.

Rodgers had a rough day with 4 sacks, 2 picks, and he even picked up a 15-yard flag for a little shove out of bounds on a defender after his pick.

This is Buffalo’s division and could be for a long time like it was for New England.

Colts at Giants: No Banners, Just Misery

The 2024 Colts had issues with their quarterback position, including a disastrous benching of Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco, and of course the way Richardson has struggled with accuracy and staying healthy. But let’s not blame their downfall at the end on Richardson’s latest injury that put Flacco back in action in a must-win game in New York.

It was the defense who ultimately delivered the final embarrassing blow for this team after allowing Drew Lock, who had one of the worst games by any quarterback this season against Atlanta last week, to lead the lowest-scoring team in the NFL to 45 points.

Lock damn near had a perfect passer rating (155.3) with 309 yards and 4 touchdowns, but I don’t want to give him too much credit. The inability to tackle Malik Nabers (171 yards and 2 TD) had a lot to do with those numbers. This is right up there with the Tavon Austin (2013), Jonas Gray (2014), Brock Osweiler (2016), and 2021 Jacksonville games for the Colts. If you know the Colts, you know what I mean.

The offense was far from perfect, but they put up 33 points and Flacco had a couple of late turnovers after the game looked out of reach. It was just a disastrous day for the defense as they couldn’t even tackle Lock on an obvious scramble for another touchdown with 2:57 left that made it 42-33.

Embarrassing stuff, and I think heads have to roll in Indy after this. The defensive coordinator at the very least must go. At least with the team in past seasons after Andrew Luck retired, they had some moments I joked about with banners, mocking their “2014 AFC Finalist” banner. But this team under Steichen? No such achievements. Just enough teasing that they’re a bad wild-card caliber team that will get bounced in the 7-2 matchup, then they can’t even get into the tournament anyway.

The Colts have become irrelevant, and that’s sad to see.

Panthers at Buccaneers: More Domination

The Panthers and Buccaneers were in overtime in Week 13 with Baker Mayfield having a sloppy game. That wasn’t the case Sunday as he had as many incomplete passes (5) as he had touchdown passes. The Bucs were absolutely dominant in a 48-14 win to get back on track after that upset loss in Dallas.

Thanks to the Commanders taking care of Atlanta, the Bucs are back in position to win the NFC South again. They’ll just have to beat the Saints at home or hope the Falcons lose to the Panthers.

Cardinals at Rams: Another Low-Scoring Win

Ever since the Rams beat Buffalo 44-42, they are 3-0 in games that ended 44-24 cumulatively. It’s been a wild run for a team with Matthew Stafford at quarterback, who again didn’t get much going in the passing game outside of throwing to Puka Nacua.

The Rams are the first team since the 2006 Broncos to win at least three straight games where they didn’t score 20 points and didn’t allow 10 points. Those Broncos did it in five straight games. But the Rams are 10-6 after a 1-4 start, 9-2 since the bye, and they needed their defense to deliver with a goal line stand against the Cardinals.

Kyler Murray finally threw a touchdown to Trey McBride on a screen pass, but when he later went for him with the game on the line, he hit him right in the head with the ball and it was caught on the deflection for an incredible interception to secure the 13-9 win.

With Washington’s win, the Rams clinched the NFC West. They could play the Commanders or Packers in the playoffs, and it likely will be tough on them. But another great turnaround job by McVay after a poor start.

Cowboys at Eagles: Kenny Pickett Doing Kenny Pickett Things

A year ago, I wouldn’t have believed Kenny Pickett would be starting a game for the Eagles to clinch the division title, but here we are. One thing that doesn’t surprise me is it was Pickett vs. Cooper Rush as Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts have met just three times since Hurts was drafted in 2020. They’re the Ravens-Steelers of the NFC as far as their quarterbacks missing the rivalry games go.

But before leaving yet another game with an injury, Pickett had some hilarious highlights like this play here:

He also should have had two touchdown passes in a half for the first time in his career, but penalties and a receiver going down at the 1 before he snuck it in on the Tush Push prevented that. But you have to laugh that the third quarterback, Tanner McKee, came in for Pickett and threw 2 touchdowns on 4 pass attempts in his NFL debut.

With CeeDee Lamb out, the Cowboys had little to show for on offense, turned it over four times, and made this a fairly easy 41-7 win for Philly. Saquon Barkley rushed for 167 yards, becoming the 9th player to hit 2,000 yards in a season. I’m glad he did it in 16 games. I’m not sure him breaking Dickerson’s record – he needs 101 yards – in a 17th game where he probably doesn’t even need to play a snap with the Eagles the No. 2 seed – would be a legitimate way to break the record. Just let it be and get ready for the playoffs.

Chargers at Patriots: What Exactly Does New England Do Well?

I’m used to the Chargers choking against the Patriots, and even in winning there last year, they still had two field goals in a 6-0 dud. But between Drake Maye checking out early with a possible concussion (he later returned) and the way the score got out of hand so quickly, I found myself changing the cats’ litter boxes by the third quarter after Ladd McConkey (my guy) punked them for a second touchdown.

Nice to see the Chargers get a comfortable win and punch their postseason ticket with a 10-6 record. I’m just not sure what the Patriots do well at this point as the defense has gotten worse with Jerod Mayo, and they still don’t have any weapons for Drake Maye.

But hey, they might have the No. 1 pick now and we know they won’t need to draft a quarterback. Travis Hunter time?

Raiders at Saints: I Actually Missed Derek Carr Sunday

This was supposed to be Derek Carr’s chance to make history by losing starts to all 32 NFL teams. But he was out with an injury, so we got treated to another Spencer Rattler start. At least they scored some points this week after getting shutout in Green Bay, but it was still a decisive 25-10 win for the Raiders, who are suddenly on a winning streak.

Given the way the offense moved the ball with a rare appearance by the running game (156 yards), I think the Raiders would have defeated Carr in New Orleans in this one. A pity we didn’t get the chance to see it.

Dolphins at Browns: Good Job, Miami

I rarely have anything good to say about Miami, because I don’t think any franchise does more to have irrelevant 7-to-9 win seasons that don’t produce a postseason win. But I have to say it was a good job by Mike McDaniel’s team to win on the road in Cleveland with Tyler Huntley at quarterback after a surprise inactive for Tua Tagovailoa in a must-win game.

Huntley was very good at managing the game while the Browns saw “DTR” complete 24-of-47 passes for 170 yards in a 20-3 final. For the people who don’t believe quarterbacks change everything, just think how differently this game looks if it was Tua vs. Jameis.

But the Dolphins (8-8) stay alive and just need the Broncos to lose to the Chiefs to make the playoffs next week if they beat the Jets to finish 9-8. But a 9-8 finish that doesn’t even result in a postseason berth would be 100% on brand for Miami.

Titans at Jaguars: It’s Raining, It’s Boring

Well, the Titans (3-13) are abysmal after a couple of low-scoring losses at the hands of the Jaguars this month. They had a late shot to win this one with a touchdown and 2-point conversion, but Mason Rudolph’s rally came up 26 yards short.

We’ll see if the Jaguars make a coaching change for 2025, but you have to say the Jaguars are closer to competing than the Titans as the way things stand. At least Trevor Lawrence can come back and throw to a young stud in Brian Thomas Jr. next season.

Next week: The end is nigh. On Saturday, it looks like they’re giving Lamar Jackson one last MVP showcase with the biggest spread (18.5) of the season against the Browns. Then it’s Bengals-Steelers, which feels like an attempt to get Cincy in since the Steelers might want to rest players if the Ravens have the division locked up. Sunday, we’ll see if the Broncos can beat Kansas City’s backups (Carson Wentz beat the 49ers’ backups last year with the Rams) or if Sean Payton will join the 2004 Bills as chokers in that situation. But the big one is the last one with Vikings at Lions, possibly a matchup of 14-2 teams for the No. 1 seed. Brilliant.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 15

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

There were 13 games on Sunday’s NFL slate, but if you like close games, this wasn’t a good day for you. Only four games had a comeback opportunity (five for the week including TNF), and only four games were decided by fewer than 10 points.

You know it’s a rough week for close games when even the Chiefs led by 14+ points for the final 34:46. But Week 15 did still feel like a pivotal one for the Super Bowl LIX chase:

  • The Lions showed there’s no reason to trust their defense to get stops as they deal with too many injuries on that side of the ball.
  • The Bills show they might be impossible to stop in the Superdome in February if they can survive the AFC playoffs in likely wintry conditions.
  • The Chiefs have some real concerns with Patrick Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain and losing control of the top seed with a much tougher remaining schedule than Buffalo.
  • The Eagles look like a well-rounded team now that the passing game showed up against the Steelers.

Those four teams are topping the latest Super Bowl odds, but you can’t discount a run by the Ravens or Packers. I might even add the Vikings in there, but let’s see what happens Monday night first on that front. With so many comfortable wins already, maybe an upset could be in store for Monday night.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Lions: Deja Vu Role Reversal  

No matter what preconceived notions you had about Detroit losing this game, you can likely discard them. They didn’t lose because of Jared Goff, who was awesome with 494 yards, 5 touchdowns, and no turnovers on a day where his running backs were held to 35 yards on 13 carries. In fact, the game’s only turnover was a fumble by Amon-Ra St. Brown that set up the Bills on a short field.

They also didn’t lose 48-42 because of whacky Dan Campbell decisions. The Lions were 3-for-3 on fourth downs, and they even let their kicker (Jake Bates) try a 52-yard field goal before halftime. He missed on the type of kick he’s been making for them this year. That miss and the fumble hurt on a day where the Lions had little margin for error.

The Lions lost because their injury-ravaged defense had no answers for stopping the Bills, who stayed hot from last week, and Campbell knew he couldn’t rely on that unit to get stops in this one after a bad start with the Bills taking a 14-0 lead, pouncing early on big pass plays to their backup running backs.

In many ways, it was déjà vu to last week for Buffalo in their 44-42 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams, except this time they were the team that led wire-to-wire while the Lions were always stuck playing catch up. Both teams piled up over 520 yards of offense, but the Bills always made sure the Lions were behind 2-or-3 scores for all six of their second-half possessions, much like the Bills faced last week in LA. Just no chance of tying or taking the lead late.

But it did get a little interesting when the Bills had to settle for a field goal to make it 48-35 with 2:03 left. The Lions saved their timeouts and they were able to score a touchdown with 12 seconds and two timeouts left. They were very close to recovering an onside kick that could have made this a Hail Mary finish, but the Bills ultimately came out of the pile with the ball to end it.

Speaking of onside kicks, that seems to be the decision that Campbell is getting shredded for when he tried one with 12 minutes left in a 38-28 game. The Bills recovered and Mack Hollins was actually able to return it to the Detroit 5, setting up another easy touchdown drive for the Bills to go up 45-28 one play later.

But I get the call from Campbell. He knows how his defense has been playing these last few weeks, especially in the second half of games when their limited depth is greatly tested and hasn’t been able to get stops. The Lions also lost more defenders to injury in this game. I think Campbell figured he’d give stealing a possession with an onside kick recovery a try, and if they didn’t get it, at least Buffalo would score quickly than if you gave them a longer field. I don’t mind the call. I just think people are having a more negative reaction because the result was a return to the 5-yard line, which rarely happens on an onside kick.

I already get the sense that Campbell is going to face some harsh criticism in the playoffs even though his defense isn’t giving him much of a choice to trust them to get a stop.

In ending Kansas City’s 15-game winning streak and Detroit’s 11-game winning streak, that’s probably going to keep the Bills as the favorites for the Super Bowl going into the playoffs since they have a cakewalk schedule these last three weeks and every other contender doesn’t. Actually, I’m seeing Bills (+425), Lions (+440), Eagles (+450), and Chiefs (+475) at BetOnline, so it’s one of the closest 4-way races you’ll ever see. But that’s sure to change if the Bills can land the No. 1 seed, which gets a boost from the Mahomes injury.

But there’s no way I’m crowning Buffalo in Week 15. Scoring 42+ points in back-to-back road games is cool, but they’ve also just allowed 42+ points in back-to-back road games too. Of the 309 teams to allow 40 points in multiple games (consecutive or not) in the Super Bowl era (1966-2023), just one of them won the Super Bowl that year. It was the 2007 Giants.

The Bills have killed some epic winning streaks themselves this season. Maybe they even get a chance to end a 15-game winning streak for the Eagles in the Super Bowl in a rematch of 2023’s best regular-season game. That looks a bit more likely now than a Bills-Lions rematch in February with the state of the defense for Detroit.

We’ll see what Minnesota does Monday night against the Bears, but the NFC North is far from locked up for Detroit too. It still has the No. 1 seed lead over the Eagles, but the remaining schedule favors the Eagles.

Chiefs at Browns: Turnover Regression

I posted a lot of stats this week about Kansas City’s historic success despite only having 10 takeaways on the season. Part of the reason I did that is because I knew they were facing Jameis Winston and the Browns this week, and everyone knows he can be charitable with the ball.

But it’s also a matter of regression. Either the Chiefs are going to start taking the ball away more often, or they might start losing games this season. Well, the turnover regression started early on Sunday, but the Browns blew it away with turning the ball over six times in a 21-7 loss.

The special teams got it started with a forced fumble on a punt return, and that’s even after the Browns cut Kadarius Toney this week. Then Jameis Winston was intercepted in the end zone, the first of three Jameis picks before he was benched for DTR, who also threw a pick. Hell, even Trent McDuffie got the first pick of his NFL career after playing roughly 3,000 snaps for the Chiefs. Poor Nick Chubb broke his foot and lost a fumble. Just a miserable day for the Browns as the Chiefs got a huge boost in takeaways.

It’s the first Kansas City game since the wild card win against Miami in frigid temperatures where the score wasn’t within one possession at some point in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs led 21-7 for the final 18 minutes. See what happens when you get takeaways? You lead 21-0 and win 21-7 without all the drama.

But there was drama of course as Patrick Mahomes did not finish this game due to a high-ankle sprain. It was a rough second half for Mahomes with 8 straight incompletions at one point, but one has to wonder why Andy Reid would still be throwing the ball so much with a rare big lead. The Chiefs didn’t give up any sacks in this game with guard Joe Thuney getting the start at left tackle, but there were 11 quarterback hits, which should be one of the highest numbers in a game in Mahomes’ career. Letting him get hit repeatedly with a multi-touchdown lead looked quite dumb.

Everything went downhill after DeAndre Hopkins dropped a great pass on third-and-long for the third game in a row. The Chiefs kept throwing incompletions soon after that, and while their turnover regression was fantastic, they also saw their 3rd-down success rate plummet in this game as they were just 7-of-18 (38.9%) after being over 52% this year.

Mahomes’ injury actually happened on a 4th-and-3 at the Cleveland 39 with 8:01 left. Man, for all the times where you curse at Andy Reid for punting, maybe that’s a spot where you actually take a 5-yard penalty and punt and let your defense do its job, or just wait for Cleveland to turn it over again with a backup quarterback entering the game.

A lot of things have been poorly managed with the Chiefs lately, but now we’ll see how they handle this schedule crunch with games coming up on Saturday (Texans) and next Wednesday (at Steelers) while there is little margin for error if the Chiefs (13-1) want to hold off Buffalo (11-2) for the No. 1 seed that they seemingly need if they want the three-peat to happen.

But it could come down to Carson Wentz against an elite pass rush from the Texans this Saturday. Good going, Andy.

Steelers at Eagles: As Expected

Not a ton to say here because I really did expect the Eagles to win by 14+ points as the game just wasn’t that important for the Steelers, who can win the AFC North with a win in Baltimore on Saturday. Everything was stacked against them here with George Pickens still out, the Eagles being a really strong opponent with an elite defense, and you had to figure Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown would connect after grumblings in the building about their passing game. The last time they played in 2022, Hurts and Brown torched this defense, and the results Sunday weren’t far off.

Hurts and Brown were outstanding early on, and to the Steelers’ credit, they fought back to make it a 17-13 game at halftime. But what a second half for ball control for the Eagles. They had three very long drives, which helped limit the Steelers to 11 offensive snaps in the second half on just two drives. You never see that in any half.

The Eagles couldn’t be stopped, and yeah, the Steelers helped with roughing the long snapper on a field goal to extend one drive, then Najee Harris fumbled a pitch on their last real chance of tying the game.

But the Tush Push was too much to deal with, and the Eagles just kept converting crucial downs. However, Mike Tomlin deserves criticism for punting on 4th-and-7 at the Philly 46 in a 27-13 game with 10:40 left. Yeah, that’s not a great situation to be in, but you’re already down 2 touchdowns and can’t get them off the field. Just go for it.

He punted, and the Eagles went on an epic 21-play drive that consumed the final 10:29 on the clock. They converted five times on third or fourth down, a perfect way to close out a game.

I didn’t expect much from the Steelers in this game. But after an encouraging first half by the defense hanging in there, it was disappointing to see how badly they were dominated in the second half. It doesn’t paint a good picture for the rest of the season with the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals to come before the playoffs.

Dolphins at Texans: The Streak Continues (Or Begins Anew)

I know C.J. Stroud and the Texans haven’t been living up to the hype I started giving them in February. But they are the AFC South champs again, and they were home for this game, which is frankly all I needed to bet on them to beat the Miami Dolphins, one of the worst teams at beating playoff teams on the road in the Mike McDaniel era.

The Dolphins had lost every game in that scenario going back to their last win in such a game in September 2022 in Baltimore. They had lost 10 straight such games going into this season before losing in Seattle, losing in Buffalo, losing in Green Bay, and losing in Houston. However, they did win at the Rams in Week 10, and the Rams might win the NFC West instead of Seattle. So, it’s possible the streak ended at 11 games with the LA win, but it’s likely picked back up with losses in Green Bay and Houston.

I belabor this point on Miami because once you see it, it makes it really hard to ever trust them to do anything important. So, that’s why I don’t really put much value in what completion percentage Tua Tagovailoa has, or what he does against a Jets team that can’t stop blowing leads this year like last week. Show me something in a big game, and sure enough, Tagovailoa had four turnovers in this winnable game, including two picks in a fourth quarter that never changed on the scoreboard with a 20-12 final.

It’s not like Stroud was fantastic in this game. He threw 2 touchdowns to Nico Collins, who somehow only had 17 yards on 4 catches in the game. Stroud took another 4 sacks and Joe Mixon (12 carries for 23 yards) was shut down again.

This was on Tua to deliver, and he failed miserably – let’s not miss that Tyreek Hill was bad too – in another fourth quarter. Few things are this reliably predictable in the NFL like the Dolphins facing a good team on the road.

Colts at Broncos: The Signature Game for the Anthony Richardson Era?

This might be the game where people jumped off the hope train for the Shane Steichen-Anthony Richardson era for the Colts (6-8). In truth, it was neither guy who was to blame for the turning point in this loss in Denver. Jonathan Taylor looked like he scored a 41-yard touchdown run that was going to give the Colts a 20-7 lead in the third quarter, which felt like it could have been insurmountable with how badly rookie Bo Nix was playing on a 3-pick day.

But Taylor made the dumbest play in football to trigger the only situation where I don’t mind one of the dumbest rules in football being enforced. He dropped the ball prematurely before he broke the plane, resulting in a touchback and Denver’s ball. Huge mistake.

While plenty more mistakes were made by the Colts, that took a clear touchdown off the board. Denver finally took the lead in the fourth quarter on a 15-yard touchdown drive after a long punt return by Mims set them up. Then Steichen and Adonai Mitchell made the play that is the new “fake punt against the Patriots” for this era of the Colts:

https://twitter.com/YahooSports/status/1868446322149527559

Always love a play that makes me literally laugh out loud. With Mitchell’s slow release on the pitch back, you could just see this one coming from a mile away before Nik Bonitto returned it 50 yards for a crushing touchdown to make it 24-13. Richardson, who was 17-of-38 with two picks, wasn’t overcoming that deficit, and it only grew more to a 31-13 final.

That’s just a sobering finish to a game and basically the season. Now you don’t know if you can trust your coach, your quarterback, and apparently not your high draft pick on a receiver this year for 2025.

I enjoyed my years of Colts fandom while it lasted (2002-2019), but I’m glad I gave up on it before this era came along. I couldn’t stomach this level of incompetency.

Packers at Seahawks: Seattle Is in Trouble

The Seahawks (8-6) were already a slight underdog to the Rams when it came to winning the NFC West going into the weekend. When you looked at the remaining schedules, it made sense with the Rams having easier games and home field for the Week 18 meeting.

But the Seahawks also didn’t look like a real contender on Sunday night as the Packers were walking all over them in a 23-6 game. It only got mildly interesting when a Josh Jacobs fumble led to a Seattle touchdown drive with backup Sam Howell in the game for an injured Geno Smith, another big problem for Seattle to overcome the rest of the season.

But the Packers eventually put things away with another touchdown pass to Romeo Doubs, who caught both of Jordan Love’s touchdowns. The Packers are 10-4 and might be the best third-place team you’ll ever see.

As for Seattle, this defense’s performance is so clearly dependent on who they’re playing. With the Vikings and Rams still to come, that’s not encouraging.

Buccaneers at Chargers: Baker Doesn’t Care Where Your Scoring Defense Ranks

Even without Chris Godwin and a bad habit for turnovers, the Buccaneers are one of the most lethal offenses in the league this year. Even though the Chargers were still the No. 1 scoring defense, Tampa dropped 40 points in their building with 506 yards of offense, outgaining the Chargers by a full 300 yards in a 40-17 rout that was close well into the third quarter.

But Mike Evans took over with two touchdown catches in the third quarter as he’s still coming for that 1,000-yard streak despite missing games to injury, and Justin Herbert threw his first pick since September.

Tampa Bay (8-6) might actually live up to that “team you don’t want to face in the playoffs” narrative that gets forced on someone each year. As for the Chargers, I’m not going to call the defense a fraud, but it’s not a good sign when your 3 worst games are at home against the Bengals, Ravens, and Buccaneers, probably the three best offenses they’ve played this year. They just can’t keep up with teams like that given the lack of weapons around Herbert.

Ravens at Giants: The Giant Spread Goes Baltimore’s Way

We got an early sense of whether or not Lamar Jackson was being truthful about running more the rest of the season. He took off for 15 yards on the second snap from scrimmage, but this time it ended in a fumble. The Ravens declined to go for a 4th-and-1 at midfield and punted on the next drive, and you started to wonder if this biggest spread of the season (Ravens -16.5) was going to be a flop with the Ravens a little rusty after the bye week.

But they got it done eventually. While Jackson finished with 65 rushing yards, it was not a running demolition against one of the worst run defenses in the league as Derrick Henry finished with 14 carries for 67 yards and no touchdowns again. Instead, Jackson was 21-of-25 for 290 yards and 5 touchdowns, just missing out on another perfect passer rating game.

The passing game came easy for the Ravens in this one, and the same can’t be said (ever?) for the Giants, who started Tommy DeVito and ended with Tim Boyle after DeVito suffered a concussion. That helped the spread work out as Boyle missed some scoring opportunities in the 35-14 loss.

But this was supposed to be a rout. Let’s see what the Ravens do against the Steelers when the division title can be won by Pittsburgh this Saturday in Baltimore. The Ravens are already looking like a considerable favorite for that one, but we know those games have been going Pittsburgh’s way for years.

Bengals at Titans: Turnover Fest Goes Cincinnati’s Way in Mentor vs. Mentee Matchup

On the plus side, Joe Burrow threw two picks in this game, including one on the first drive, so we shouldn’t have to hear the Oppression Olympics working overtime to prop up his season for having a poor record despite a certain TD:INT ratio. He’s up to eight picks this season and also lost another fumble in this game.

But it didn’t matter as the Titans went on to turn it over six times, including a pick-six that got Will Levis immediately benched for Mason Rudolph after it was Levis’ fourth turnover. Pretty brutal stuff against this defense. The Bengals led by double digits the entire second half, one of their most comfortable wins all season.

I guess the Titans will go back to Levis next week, but they’re just playing out the schedule with little optimism for 2025. The Bengals (6-8) got some help with the Colts and Dolphins losing, or did they? The Bengals still rank behind both teams in the playoff standings, and it might have been beneficial if the Broncos lost to Indy to facilitate a collapse there while you can count on the Colts to keep losing other games.

Well, I’m sure it’ll all sort itself out but the Bengals had a good day overall at former OC Brian Callahan’s expense.

Commanders at Saints: Almost a Controversial Outcome

Playing in New Orleans again, those NFC South flashbacks must have hit Dan Quinn as the Commanders nearly blew a 17-0 lead in the second half that would have been one of the most controversial endings this season.

The Saints got back in the game by benching their new quarterback for rookie Spencer Rattler, but it was a trick play with a great catch by Alvin Kamara that got them on the board. The Commanders later had a chance to ice the game with a field goal to make it a 10-point game, but Greg Joseph missed a 54-yard field goal with 1:55 left.

That gave the Saints a chance at the tie or win, and they converted a 4th-down play to the 1-yard line in the closing seconds. But for some reason, the clock stopped at 0:09 for a solid 4 seconds before it started rolling again and that gave Rattler time to get the spike off. Had this not happened, it’s quite possible the clock would have run out. Maybe they could have gotten it with 1 second left had they seen it running out on them, but it would have been super close and that kind of clock error is inexcusable in this moment.

https://twitter.com/ChadwikoTWW/status/1868431498447323403

The Saints scored the touchdown on the last play, and they made the right decision to go for 2 and the win. But Rattler’s pass wasn’t even close in the end zone, and the Commanders (-7.5) held on for the 20-19 win after a real scare.

The only thing I’m shocked about here is that this didn’t happen in Philadelphia, because that’s the stadium where I’ve observed some real shady clock operating. But they’re apparently blaming this one on an official on the field accidentally stopping the clock when he shouldn’t have. Either way, it shouldn’t happen.

Oddly enough, this was the first time all year the Commanders successfully defended a one-score lead in the fourth quarter, the last team to do so in a game this year. What a sweat it was though.

Jets at Jaguars: Davante Adams’ Best Half

Congratulations to Aaron Rodgers on his 24th fourth-quarter comeback win, tying him with Patrick Mahomes on the career list even though his career is a dozen years shorter.

But it really was one of the greatest halves by a receiver in NFL history that made this one possible. The Jets only had 3 completions at halftime in another lackluster start. Davante Adams didn’t have a single catch, but in the second half alone, he went off for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 catches. He also caught a go-ahead 2-point conversion after his 71-yard touchdown put the Jets ahead after they almost blew their sixth 4th-quarter lead of the season.

It was also Adams who took the ball to the 1-yard line on the game-winning drive, which was a touchdown run by Breece Hall that the Jaguars may have just allowed willingly to get the ball back with some time in a 32-25 game. However, Mac Jones returned to his senses and threw a game-ending pick.

Maybe the craziest stat after Adams nearly going for a 400-yard full-game pace with that second half was that Rodgers led the Jets in rushing with 45 yards on 6 carries.

It’s too little too late for these Jets, but that was a vintage Rodgers to Adams performance that we thought we’d see earlier this year.

Cowboys at Panthers: Can See Why Carolina Is Usually the Underdog…

I can see why the Panthers have been underdogs for more than 30 straight games before Sunday where they lost 30-14 at home to Dallas. Count me in as one of the suckers who bought the fool’s gold that Carolina was doing better the last month (they really were, though) and that they could beat a Dallas team with a quarterback in Cooper Rush who couldn’t even throw for 200 yards at home against that Cincinnati defense.

Well, Rush threw 3 touchdowns in this one even if it took some great efforts from his receivers. Bryce Young had 4 turnovers and 6 sacks, including a strip-sack to start the second half when it was a 10-7 game, which really opened the floodgates on this one.

Dallas even won convincingly despite trying a 70-yard field goal that went about as poorly as you can imagine. I guess Carolina is still really bad.

Patriots at Cardinals: Third Down Differential 1991 Style

Not an interesting game as the Cardinals basically routed the Patriots to end their 3-game losing streak. But an interesting stat was on third down where the Patriots were 0-for-6 and the Cardinals were 10-for-15. It’s only the fifth game since 1991, the year they started officially tracking down stats, where one team failed to convert a single third down and their opponent converted at least two-thirds with a minimum 10 conversions.

The closest such game to this was back in 1991 when the Cardinals were 11-for-16 and the Patriots were 0-for-6 in a 24-10 win by the Phoenix Cardinals. So, there’s some more déjà vu.

Next week: Broncos-Chargers is solid for TNF with both teams hoping to make the playoffs. Saturday should have been great, but here we go with Patrick Mahomes and T.J. Watt leaving the fourth quarter with injuries and now facing a short week. Eagles-Commanders the highlight of Sunday’s early schedule even if it feels inevitable that the Eagles win the NFC East. Vikings-Seahawks the highlight in a low-key late slate. Bucs-Cowboys is a shit game for SNF that should have been flexed, but God forbid we do that to Jerry Jones. Saints-Packers should be a Green Bay rout on Monday night. So, I’m not really sure where the week peaks. Probably Steelers-Ravens for the AFC North on Saturday.

NFL 2024 Week 15 Predictions: The Gauntlet Begins Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The bye weeks are all finished for the 2024 NFL season, so it’s back to 16-game slates for the last month. But Week 15 marks the beginning of the gauntlet I’ve been talking about since May when the schedule came out. For reasons I’m sure are stupid, the league has four major AFC contenders (Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens, Texans) all playing three games 10 days apart from December 15 – December 25. They’ll all play Sunday, then they’re in action against each other next Saturday (12/21), then they’ll be playing on Christmas that Wednesday.

The winner here is really Buffalo, which had a late bye and doesn’t have to deal with this nonsense. I don’t know what the NFL was thinking other than dollars with Saturday and Wednesday island games over the holidays with contenders. But you’re just asking for players to get hurt here with such short recovery times, and some of these teams like the Chiefs had an early bye, so they really could use some rest here. Then when you have such important games and a physical game like Steelers-Ravens in the mix, it’s just a terrible idea to do this.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 15 Predictions

Silly me for thinking the 49ers would salvage their season and not get swept by the Rams, or blow their 4th 4Q lead in a division game this season. They are done now.

WAS-NO: Got an inexperienced QB starting for the Saints, so that’s a wild card here. The spread might be a little high for Washington, but the bye week should have helped, they’ve blown some weak teams out this year, so I’m just going to roll with Jayden Daniels outscoring the Saints by 8+.

CIN-TEN: Could be a good underdog spot for Brian Callahan’s knowledge of the Bengals, but I just can’t bring myself to betting on the Titans and Will Levis after losing 10-6 last week to the Jags with Mac Jones. That’s beyond the pale.

MIA-HOU: Dolphins are really playing better football right now than Houston, but the Texans had their bye, they should still win the AFC South, and I’m just going to play the streak that this is the type of game Miami loses on the road every time.

KC-CLE: I like for Jameis to put up some big numbers, but will we actually see the KC defense get some picks this week? They’re dying for some regression there. But I wouldn’t bet on the spread here as much as I’d take the best bet this year: Chiefs by 1-13 points. But KC better have answers for blocking Myles Garrett, who is coming for his 100th sack. That’s a good defensive prop pick to bet on here.

DAL-CAR: Been a few seasons since the Panthers were favored. I’m going to trust them too since I think it’s been a month of impressive football given where this team was to start the year. Bryce Young is better than Cooper Rush, and I’m going to trust Xavier Legette, who is hilarious to listen to, making up for last week’s drop with a big play.

NYJ-JAX: Again, Aaron Rodgers should probably just retire on the spot if he can’t beat the 3-10 Jags with Mac Jones. But we’ve been burned before on the Jets this year.

BAL-NYG: I see a 30-14 type of game here, which will piss off the Baltimore -16.5 bettors. But this is the biggest spread of the season so far.

IND-DEN: Fine with eating crow on this one but I just think a rested Denver pass defense is going to make Anthony Richardson look terrible, and the Broncos should have a varied attack against that defense in a comfortable cover.

NE-ARI: Naming defenders on these teams is a tough task. I think Drake Maye could keep it close again, but I’m taking the Cards to end their 3-game losing streak.

TB-LAC: Could be one of Sunday’s best games. I’m going to assume and hope that Ladd McConkey is playing, which is why I like the Chargers at home. Just think the defense can get more takeaways out of Baker Mayfield and the Chargers will win the turnover battle while keeping that offense in check.

PIT-PHI: If Bryce Young could nearly (and should have) beat the Eagles in Philly, what’s stopping Russell Wilson? Well, I wanted to take the Steelers ATS here, but the lack of George Pickens is huge in a matchup like this against a strong defense and potent offense. You can get away without Pickens against Cleveland at home but it’s a different story here. I also see the Eagles perking up with their passing game after rumblings from their WRs that they aren’t getting enough targets. Basically, I think the Steelers blow this game off as it doesn’t really matter. Just win next Saturday in Baltimore and you’re the AFC North champions. Nothing that happens this Sunday changes that fact that next Saturday is the big one.

BUF-DET: Super Bowl preview? It could be. I’ve bounced back and forth on this one. Ultimately, I think the Lions are due for a loss after barely getting by the Bears and Packers in the division. Unfamiliar opponent here. Lots of injuries on defense too, and we’ve seen the Lions really struggle to stop teams from scoring after good starts to their last two games. I think Josh Allen will have a good game and Jared Goff might make a late mistake or Dan Campbell’s 4th down gamble backfires this time and the Bills win by 1-to-6 points.

GB-SEA: I think the Packers are the better team with the better quarterback, experienced coach, and Geno Smith likely won’t go back-to-back games without a sack or turnover. But it could be a good one Sunday night.

CHI-MIN: Crazy comeback by the Bears last time to force overtime and give the Vikings a scare. Minnesota’s been playing tight games but I think it can open up a big lead and score on this Chicago team with Sam Darnold playing arguably his best ball all year right now.

ATL-LV: Seriously, how do you pick a MNF doubleheader this shitty? I don’t really care to watch either game. But it would be a disaster for Kirk Cousins to get outplayed by Desmond Ridder of all people. He has to come through here and get Atlanta back on track. If not, then they might as well turn things over to Penix.