Tag: Injuries

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 2

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ 6 Comments

This is a throwback to the 2010s when I used to post my NFL recap column (starting with Captain Comeback in 2011) on Tuesdays before I started doing it here for Monday morning. I learned you can do it a lot faster when you’re not trying to painstakingly recap the play-by-play on those critical drives, creating GIFs and all the other stuff I did to crank out super-long pieces every week.

But I had other work to finish for Monday, so this is a day later for hopefully the only time this season, and I also wanted to write about MNF as I really did anticipate that matchup between the Rams and Giants.

Naturally, the game was a bust after Jaxson Dart was knocked out on the first drive with a knee injury (sprained MCL, allegedly) that fortunately wasn’t a season-ending ligament tear.

But that was the story of this weekend. Quarterback injuries and the defenses fighting back in a big way after a record-setting scoring number in Week 1. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels were injured on freak-accident plays. The NFC already has been without Sam Darnold and Kyler Murray after they were injured early in Week 1, and the Falcons subjected us to watching Cooper Rush start for two weeks as a third-string quarterback.

That’s already six quarterbacks down in the NFC, and the only miracle is maybe none of them are season-ending injuries. Still, it’s a bummer as a lot of them are young players trying to lift their teams up to relevancy.

Meanwhile, things in the AFC felt like a return to normal:

  • Buffalo getting “Super Bowl bound! Best QB ever!” hype after blowing out a bad defense on TNF in September.
  • Kansas City winning a 33-30 overtime game where the passing game carried the team.
  • Bo Nix in his element, getting a fourth-quarter comeback after trailing 13-6.
  • The Chargers shitting their pants at home to lose 26-14 for the second week in a row.
  • The Dolphins looking like one of the worst teams ever in September before they inevitably find a way to the most meaningless 6 wins ever.
  • The Steelers looking totally lost on offense and embarrassing themselves in New England.
  • And the Baltimore Ravens choking away a double-digit lead at home.

Ooooo, and it’s alright and it’s comin’ on

We gotta get right back to where we started from

We’re back to normal. But I would point out this season is off to a slow start in close games. We had seven games with a comeback opportunity in Week 1, then eight this week. That’s 15/32 (46.9%). But there were six game-winning drives in Week 2, so that counts for something.

I’m not going to get too in the weeds about games from Sunday, but here are my thoughts on a difficult week for scoring and injuries. I said on Saturday in the predictions piece that these injuries are really mounting up at receiver, and when you throw in some rain in some of these games, it’s not that surprising it ended up being an offensive dud.

Minus Sunday night, of course.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Colts at Chiefs: Game of the Week

I don’t know if the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl this year. But after Sunday night and some of the things that have happened around the NFL, I’m back to believing they can. As long as you have Patrick Mahomes playing like this, you always have that chance.

After his return game was one of his least effective in his career from a passing standpoint, Mahomes ripped it all over the field on Sunday night, leading the offense to 523 yards in a 33-30 overtime win where he picked up his 11th multiple game-winning drive (mGWD; the NFL record is 12).

Mahomes threw for 382 yards despite some big drops from his top receivers. He came through in the clutch multiple times just as he did against the Colts last year in the only close game the 2025 Chiefs won (0-10 otherwise; 0-8 with Mahomes otherwise). So, there’s some déjà vu to this one as we can put to rest the Lou Anarumo angle after Mahomes beat his defense for the fifth year in a row.

But the arm looked healthy, accurate and decisive, and still the most clutch quarterback in the game as you saw on the 3rd-and-12 in overtime for a 30-yard gain to Tyquan Thornton, the savior in this offense with the flaws Rice and Worthy have. Then Travis Kelce also looked vintage with 9/101/1. Another impressive outing for Kenneth Walker too (178 YFS).

This was the most 2018-22 Chiefs game we’ve seen since 2023, and that’s also because of what happened on the other sides of the ball. It’s your classic Spags game: You give up 30 points to an offense that lost its best receiver (Pierce) early, you get no sacks on Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor had some nice runs, but you get some credit for not giving up a touchdown in overtime after the Colts turtled following the overturned fumble. I also agree with Mahomes that it’s great they overturned that as the refs controversy shit would be over the top the rest of the year.

But the Chiefs had a lot of penalties (8-86), more special teams errors, Butker missed a kick (but made the biggest ones). I guess the only thing missing was the obligatory fumble, but games like this is what made the Chiefs so fun to watch in 2018-22, and their absence from 2023-25 made things a difficult grind. Not that this wasn’t a grind and tough win too. It just feels different when the offense is moving like this.

But this is Kansas City, and as long as you have that quarterback upright, they can beat anyone anywhere. After watching Baltimore blow another lead at home, and after watching the Bills give up 31 to Houston and Detroit, are you really going to bet against Mahomes if it comes down to those matchups again?

Plenty of directions this season can go from here, but Sunday night proved that Mahomes can still get it done at the highest level, still can throw it deep when he needs to, and he can still run when he has to have it or to protect himself.

He’s still the best to do it.

Giants at Rams: Dodge Dart

(That’s a Kind of Like Spitting reference, FTR)

This game had so much upset potential with how good the Giants looked in Week 1, how bad the Rams were in Australia, then you throw in the two biggest non-quarterback injuries the Rams could least afford (Myles Garrett and Puka Nacua) and 0-2 was a real possibility for the Super Bowl favorites.

Then Jaxson Dart injured his knee on the opening drive, and it was as if the life was sucked out of the team, and not in a fun way (“Big Blue Meets Bonnie Blue”). Backup Jameis Winston is usually good for a couple of touchdowns and interceptions, but even he couldn’t get them into the end zone in a snoozer of a 28-6 final. I guess Australia might have just been the travel fatigue and that will be the worst version you see all year of this team.

My apologizes to Davante Adams for even questioning if he was washed, because he played one of the best games I’ve ever seen him have, barely missing 200 yards with two scores. With the way Stafford and Adams were shredding that defense, I’m not sure if it would have mattered if Dart played the whole game. Maybe that injury demoralized the whole team, but it’s more likely this game just showed there is still a wide gap between the two, and beating up Dallas in Week 1 isn’t indicative of a team ready for a deep run.

But it would have been fun to see what Dart could do against a real contender. I always joke about Dart’s rivalry with the blue medical tent because of his reckless play, but it’s hard to fault him for trying to throw from the pocket when he got injured. Just a bad collision after he got the ball away. The good news is he avoided the ACL from the early reports, so if it’s an MCL sprain, we’ll see him again soon. But what will the team’s record be by that point?

Didn’t see anything from Aaron Donald, but when you’re away from the game for that long, it’s going to take more than a game to shake off the rust. He’ll be fine. The Rams were nowhere near fully loaded and still crushed a team 28-6. That’s encouraging for the Super Bowl picks.

Still, the Dart injury was a bummer to end the week after mostly all bad games on Sunday.

Saints at Ravens: See, Jesse Minter IS a Harbaugh

You can’t even chalk this one up to more “Tyler Shough and Awe” in the fourth quarter. This is just what the Ravens do, year after year. I caught some flak earlier this year when I said the Ravens hiring Jesse Minter was like hiring a younger Harbaugh the way he’s stalked John and Jim around different jobs the last decade. He’s like a Harbaugh nepo baby without the blood genes.

But I was told he’s younger and things would be different. Yet, in the first real chance he had at it, he blew a double-digit home lead just like John Harbaugh would.

  • The Ravens were outscored 15-0 in the fourth quarter.
  • Shough was 27-of-34 for 252 yards and led scoring drives on 5-of-6 drives to end the game.
  • Derrick Henry had just 5 carries in the second half after he had 11 carries for 51 yards and a touchdown in the first half (consistent gains as his long run was 8 yards).
  • Henry had 14 successful runs on 16 carries, and yet they got away from him while the offense couldn’t move the ball in the second half.
  • Tied 17-17 in the fourth quarter after the defense was flagged for holding that led to a game-tying 2PC for the Saints, the Ravens faced a 3rd-and-1 at their 37. Jackson threw deep instead of going back to Henry, then they punted.
  • With 8:06 left, the Saints burned 6:38 and scored the game-winning touchdown on a Shough sneak on 4th-and-goal from the 1 with 1:28 left.

Do I think Shough actually broke the plane and scored? No, not from the few angles I saw. Do I think the Ravens were screwed? No, they were actually helped by this since the refs didn’t call an obvious facemask on the player pulling down Shough. That would have made it first and goal, and the Saints would have ran the clock down (Baltimore out of timeouts) and kicked the short field goal on the final play to win 20-17.

Calling that a Shough touchdown actually saved the offense time to get a drive. But this is a spot where I think Jackson has underwhelmed in his career where you absolutely need a touchdown in the final minutes.

I’m not surprised he didn’t get it done again, ending with an ugly interception that probably looks less ugly if the target wasn’t an oblivious Rashod Bateman, the de-facto WR1 for the day because of Zay Flowers’ injury. Bateman is like the Xavier Worthy of the Baltimore offense. A first-round pick that really shouldn’t have been, he just never has developed a great chemistry with Jackson. They had numbers together in this game, but when it came time to close and then time to tie, they couldn’t connect and I think Jackson put a little too much on the last pass that caused it to sail over a receiver barely looking for it. Because that’s who Bateman is in this offense.

You add it all together, and you get yet another blown double-digit lead at home for the Ravens. Can’t blame this one on Harbaugh too unless you want to acknowledge they hired the closest thing they can to a younger version of Harbaugh.

Bengals at Texans: Stroud of Mystery

Man, what another weird f’n game with the 2026 Bengals. Last week, they recovered four fumbles against Tampa Bay. This time, they let C.J. Stroud throw for 353 yards on 55 attempts, no interceptions, and somehow the Texans only scored 6 points.

That’s never been done before in NFL history. A quarterback throwing for 350+, no picks, and his team scored fewer than 10 points. Never happened until Sunday, and the fact that they let Stroud throw 55 passes in a game without Nico Collins and a game they never trailed by more than 14 is preposterous. Stroud also led the team with 29 rushing yards as David Montgomery had 6 carries for 10 yards. Are we supposed to believe the line was really that outmatched up front against Dexter Lawrence and company? I have a hard time buying that.

The Cincinnati offense was about what you’d expect. Joe Burrow took 5 sacks against a proud pass rush, but Ja’Marr Chase showed why he’s arguably the best there is with two touchdowns, including one beauty for the highlight reels. But Chase and Higgins had almost 85% of Burrow’s passing yardage.

This game was put on Stroud, and 6 points on 13 drives with no turnovers and only one missed field goal is wild stuff. Granted, they were 0-for-4 on fourth down, the hidden turnovers in the box score. But what a strange gameplan from the Texans.

Packers at Jets: New York Errors

After two weeks, I get the sense the Packers are going to be worse than expected and the Jets better than expected this season. New York really should have won this game instead of blowing a 10-point 4Q lead and losing overtime. I noticed in Week 1 the way they were controlling the ball in Tennessee, and they were doing it here. The final margin in time of possession was 37:40 to 26:57 but the Jets also held the Packers to 1-of-9 on third down and 0-of-1 on fourth down.

The Jets are just the second home team since 1991 to lose a game after:

  • Scored 17+ points
  • Converted 8+ third downs
  • Allowed 0-1 third down conversions
  • At least 37:00 time of possession

Teams in this situation are now 69-2 since 1991. The other loss was the Colts in the 1995 opener against Cincinnati, and that was different since they were down 21-10 in the fourth quarter and forced overtime before losing. The Jets blew the double-digit lead here.

But I guess the Packers have been here before under Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love.

But Aaron Glenn is going to keep costing the Jets games like this. Up 10, they gave up 38 yards on a DPI penalty to wipe out a 1st-and-25 situation. Tied at the 2:00 warning, they try to run on 3rd-and-2, didn’t get it, then failed on a 4th-and-1 run at midfield that could have easily cost them the game in regulation if the Packers didn’t go 4-and-out. I think you have to let Geno throw on that 3rd-and-2, then you can work on the clock and setting up the last-second FG.

In overtime, Smith took two straight sacks to kill that drive on a three-and-out. But why would you even choose to receive first in overtime? You’re the home team, you’ve been moving the ball all day while Love struggled to get chunk plays. Force the Packers to go first with the constraints of conservative three-down football, then you can answer with four-down football, knowing exactly what you need.

But the Jets went three-and-out, and the Packers only needed a couple of first downs to get in range for the 26-yard field goal. Cue another stupid 15-yard flag on Glenn’s defense to help it along too, a unit that still doesn’t have an interception in his 19 games.

Vikings at Bears: Cancel the Ben Johnson Statue

When I wrote about Week 2 reversion from Week 1’s high scoring, I never thought 9-3 was a possibility in Chicago a week after 59-37 in Carolina. I need to start paying more attention to the weather reports even in September for some of these games, but some rain still shouldn’t have been enough to produce such a ridiculously low score here. Don’t forget the Bears can run the ball with multiple 100-yard rushers last week.

But what a tough day for the Bears in the face of Brian Flores’ mad blitzing ways. The Bears had 10 drives that ended in:

  • Four punts
  • One FG
  • One blocked FG
  • One interception
  • One Swift fumble at the MIN 1 on 1st-and-goal in the third quarter (killer)
  • One end of half after Williams took a sack after having 0:20 left to work with
  • One turnover on downs to end the game on a fourth-down sack

It’s not like the Bears couldn’t do anything (297 yards and 17 first downs). They just didn’t finish enough drives, and the Swift fumble and blocked FG were real killers.

But the game will likely be remembered best for the Caleb Williams injury. Just a freak accident where he tried to dodge a sack from behind and pulled up after blowing a hamstring. My question would be, should they have just kicked the 26-yard field goal on 4th-and-1 on the previous snap with 8:30 left in a 6-3 game?

Anymore, coaches turn down the field goal to go for it, but it’s not like the game was hanging in the balance on that drive. It was 6-3. There’d be another possession. I think coaches are getting a little too caught up in taking the lead when you can tie it and change the game state that way. Also note that four plays later, he ended up having to kick the tying field goal anyway. It just cost him his quarterback and a full 2:00 off the clock.

Of course, you still have to make the kick, which didn’t happen because of a block. The Vikings actually put together a long drive to get a field goal to make it 9-3, then Tyson Bagent only had 1:00 to go get a touchdown with no timeouts. I thought he did an impressive job to give them a shot from the 12. Just couldn’t cover those final 12 yards in the red zone as Flores’ defense delivered one more time.

While the Bears think about their quarterback situation, what are the Vikings thinking these days? They’re the first team in NFL history to win four straight games with four different starting quarterbacks (Max Brosmer, J.J. McCarthy, Kyler Murray, Carson Wentz). This might be one of the more fraudulent 2-0 starts we’ve seen, but we’ve seen Kevin O’Connell find weird ways to win these close games before.

But what a brutal day for Chicago that I guess could have been worse.

Steelers at Patriots: Darkness Retreat Sounds Good About Now

Aaron Rodgers might be retiring sooner than later if more games like Sunday happen. He was bad, the coaching was bad, the receivers (especially D.K. Metcalf) were awful, the running game didn’t exist, and the offensive line was abysmal.

I think they covered up the line last year with Rodgers getting the ball out short and fast to the running backs and tight ends. This year, Metcalf is dropping all the important balls, Michael Pittman Jr. was already out with an injury, and rookie Germie Bernard looked good until he bobbled a pass in the red zone that went down as an interception for Rodgers, which I’m sure pisses him off since he complained for six days about the drops and flags he didn’t get in Week 1.

Teams see they can’t run and they can just tee off on him right now. It’s a mess, and it’s somehow worse than what they looked like last year. The defense was fine on Sunday outside of the long touchdown run given up to TreVeyon Henderson. He can do that though.

But I thought Drake Maye had another struggle game. T.J. Watt is playing great in this new defense. The only reason they had a chance in the second half was this defense. Maye followed up his best throw with a bad pick, his fourth already. Still taking 3 sacks a week this year. He needs to get right, but at least Romeo Doubs pulled in a big catch to show he’s not worthless.

Still, 23 points in eight quarters for the New England offense. That still sounds better than the 8.0 points per game the Steelers’ offense has.

Browns at Buccaneers: Nasty Business

The early returns on the 2026 Buccaneers are horrific. Baker Mayfield is playing some of his worst ball after he got thoroughly outplayed at home by Deshaun Watson on the other side, and it’s not like the Browns still have Myles Garrett on defense. I expected him to come out of that long weather delay and immediately throw a pick. Instead, he just couldn’t find anything and the Bucs turned it over on downs in a 23-19 loss.

Then you have a bad defense for Todd Bowles, not much going for rookie Rueben Bain Jr., and this 0-2 team is fortunate to be playing in the NFC South.

They even let Watson get this done without a running game as he led the team with 22 rushing yards. The rest of his team had 16 carries for 22 yards. A carry job by Predator.

This is why it’s better to fire a coach a year early than a year late.

Commanders at Cowboys: “Shit” Indeed, Tom Brady

It’s funny how FOX paid Tom Brady $37.5M per year just to call shitty NFC East games every week where he even dropped a “Shit!” on air after the replay of Jayden Daniels’ nasty elbow injury before halftime.

What’s not funny is that I think Dan Quinn just screwed his team’s season and his quarterback’s health for the second year in a row. It was keeping him in a blowout vs. Seattle last year when he was injured, then they rushed him back. On Sunday, it was 3rd-and-goal at the 1 with 0:03 left in the half, Washington down 17-10.

You’re getting the ball to start the third quarter. Knowing that fact, kick the FG, make it 17-13, then go get more in the second half. Plenty of game left. The whole mechanism of this play f’n stunk as it doesn’t look like anyone on Washington ever tried to run a route. What was Daniels supposed to do if he didn’t trip on his lineman’s foot?

He tried to protect himself, injured his elbow, and it just never should have happened. They’re doing him worse than this franchise did RG3.

As for Dallas, what can I say? Dak was great, but he usually is against Washington. I need to see something new. Dan Quinn will not be the coach of the Commanders in 2027.

Jaguars at Broncos: Bo Nix in His Element

The Broncos picked up their first win with another low-scoring 4QC led by Bo Nix, who turned a 13-6 deficit into a 20-13 win. It’s a familiar script from 2025, and they turned around their 34-20 loss to Jacksonville with a much better game defensively and arguably a weaker one on offense.

At least Jayden Waddle came through with over 100 yards, but it doesn’t seem like they are getting Courtland Sutton going this year with Waddle there now. They’ve still got a long way to go offensively, but the rookie back (Coleman) made some promising plays.

The Jaguars are leaning heavily on Parker Washington right now, which makes sense when he’s playing well and you’re playing a team with Surtain at corner. But at some point you have to get Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr. involved too. Not much from the running game either as Tuten is no Kenneth Walker, and the Broncos didn’t have a historically-bad tackling game this time.

But we’ll need to see better from both teams in Week 3. Jags host the Pats, and Broncos host the Rams on SNF.

Seahawks at Cardinals: JSN Couldn’t Resist the Pretty End Zone

Not sure how or why my mind works this way, but I wrote that title because I was thinking of the unique paint job the Arizona grounds team used in this game, and that Jaxon Smith-Njigba couldn’t resist visiting it three times. You know, the same way demon pastor Kenneth Copeland “couldn’t help but buy” that private jet cause they “made it so cheap for me.”

Yep, that’s somehow my reference point here. ‘They made that end zone so pretty for me, I couldn’t help but visit it three times.” – JSN

Also, is it wrong that my first thought after this game ended Sunday was confirmation that the Chargers really suck? They made this Arizona team look good while the Seahawks, even with Drew Lock starting, just embarrassed them in a similar fashion to last year where the defense shut down Jacoby Brissett, and JSN proved he is quarterback-proof with 9/155/3.

The Seattle defense is still very much a problem for the rest of the NFL. Onto the next.

Eagles at Titans: The Good and Bad of Jalen Hurts

I thought Jalen Hurts played really well outside of the two picks. Great on third downs, and another game-winning drive with a clutch touchdown in the final seconds to a receiver no one heard of – legitimately, not the fake 2001-06 Tom Brady narrative. Just clean up the mistakes, do more damage on early downs.

Much better fight from Cam Ward and the Titans over Week 1. Obviously still a tough defensive matchup for him. Tough loss but a step in the right direction.

Raiders at Chargers: Ruh-Roh, San Diego

Justin Herbert has not been good since the calendar turned to 2026. On the one hand, if I had my choice of spending extra hours watching “Cardinals/Raiders film” or spending hours of direct contact with Madison Beer, I’m choosing the latter every single night. Ladd McConkey probably open somewhere. Johnston too. And even if I throw to the open guy, he still might tip it up in the air for an interception. So, screw it. I’m enjoying life.

No doubt, the Chargers have been the most disappointing team through what was supposed to be their two easiest games. Herbert’s been bad, but as much as I don’t want to be his apologist anymore, this latest 26-14 home loss as a big favorite actually is easy to defend for him. It just is as much as I hate to admit it.

  • I just showed you the first pick that was a perfect throw on third down to David Njoku on a deep ball. Should have been a conversion and likely scoring drive. Damn Cleveland players.
  • The first drive of the game was a 58-yard missed field goal by Dicker the Kicker. Isn’t he supposed to be great?
  • He started the second half with a 74-yard touchdown drive.
  • Now behind 17-14, a drive was ruined in short yardage with a 1-yard run on 2nd-and-2 followed by an aborted snap from the center (Slaughter). Punt.
  • That combo of line + failed running game in short yardage ruined the next drive with a holding penalty (1st-and-20), then Hampton ran for no gain on 3rd-and-2. Another punt.
  • Driving to midfield with 3:52 left before Hampton goes all Melvin Gordon with the choke-time fumble, leading to a 16-yard touchdown drive for the Raiders.
  • Now you’re down 24-14 with 2:59 left, a near-impossible hole to dig out of, and Herbert throws his second pick on a 3rd-and-11 heave.
  • He gets the ball back deep in his own end (94 yards to go), and holding in the end zone by Joe Alt leads to a safety. Game over.

That sounds like a piss-poor team effort instead of the quarterback letting them down. I think Week 1 was worse than this for Herbert. Now he’s got to play at Buffalo this week, so good luck avoiding 0-3. If they couldn’t beat the Cardinals and Raiders at home, I hate to think what that final record is going to be for the team I picked to go 11-6 and win the division.

Obviously, I’d pick the Chiefs now, but I thought that Mike McDaniel and the healthier offensive tackles would make the difference here. I also always believed in Jim Harbaugh’s coaching, and I’ve believed in Herbert since 2020. But this season has been a disaster and we may not have seen rock bottom yet.

Yet, Herbert gets to go home and rock that bott-You get the idea. He’s not unlucky off the field at least.

Raiders are probably the biggest 2-0 fool’s gold in the league right now, but good on Klint Kubiak to take advantage of the opportunity.

Dolphins at 49ers: Purdy Perfection

This was just a 14-6 game at halftime because it was on pace for just 10 possessions. The Dolphins kicked three field goals (missed one), and the 49ers had two long touchdown drives. That would have been incredible if they kept that pace, but in the second half, the Dolphins never scored again while the 49ers went 5-for-5 at scoring touchdowns before eschewing the perfect game with a big lead and punting twice before running out the clock.

An easy 35-13 win where Brock Purdy was 20-of-22 for 287 yards, 2 TDs, and no sacks. He also had 30 rushing yards (rest of team: 65) and a touchdown on the ground, giving him a 99.7 QBR, which apparently ranks as the No. 8 game since 2006. But if you look at the list, Purdy is the only quarterback in the top 15 to have at least 11 EPA in his game.

Going to be a long season for Miami. With the 49ers, I just worry they’re losing too many receivers after Demarcus Robinson left injured in this one.

Panthers at Falcons: Maybe Atlanta Should Trade for Bryce Young…

The Mercedes-Benz Stadium seems to bring out the best in Bryce Young, even going back to his days at Alabama:

  • Bryce Young’s 1st NCAAF Start: A 44-13 win vs. Miami where Young was 27-of-38 for 344 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT.
  • 2021 SEC Championship Game: A 41-24 win over 12-0 Georgia where Young was 26-of-44 for 421 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 40 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD.
  • 2024 Season at Atlanta: 251 yards and 3 TDs with 0 INT in a 44-38 overtime win, his only NFL win when Carolina allowed more than 30 points.
  • 2025 Season at Atlanta: Led a 14-point comeback in a 30-27 OT win where he was 31-of-45 for a career-high 448 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT.
  • 2026 Season at Atlanta: Easy 34-3 win where he was 23-of-36 for 287 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT.

His first NFL start was also in that building, and that one didn’t go well. But we can give him a pass for that. Maybe the Falcons need to ditch their quarterback calamity and trade for Young so he can play in HIS building half the year. I’m not even joking that much.

A joke would be starting your first two games with Cooper Rush at quarterback. Fortunately, we should see Penix on Thursday night.

Next Week

I just finished my Week 3 preview of the top five games, and [Bernthal voice] let me tell you something, it’s not a good slate. The closest thing to a marquee game is SNF (Rams at Broncos), and the Rams really haven’t played a watchable game yet as this will be their third straight in prime time (locally, at least). But we’re being subjected to the Falcons in prime time a lot in the coming weeks, so at least it’s going to be Michael Penix Jr. in Green Bay on Thursday night.

Sunday, Chargers at Buffalo should have been good, but I ended up not even writing about it since I don’t expect much from the 0-2 team that couldn’t beat the Raiders and Cardinals at home. Jags-Patriots is interesting, Steelers are in a bad matchup with the Bengals, and the Chiefs need to plaster Miami in their first road game this season.

Baltimore at Dallas, the field could be compromised in Brazil. But that’s potentially a good one in the late-afternoon window. Eagles-Bears, let’s just say I’m intrigued by the thought of what Tyson Bagent can do in Ben Johnson’s offense. He won’t go off script like Caleb, so Ben might have to Neuralink this one and get the backup to throw it exactly where he wants. Could be interesting.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I loved the NFL’s Week 7 schedule more than I probably loved the games themselves on Sunday. It wasn’t bad, and most of the top games delivered, but it definitely felt like a return to a lot of weak offense around the league.

 It’s also been oddly one-sided as just four games had a comeback opportunity going into Monday night’s double-header that should hopefully add to that total with Baltimore’s shaky closing abilities and the Chargers just generally being the Chargers.

But that’s a low number of close games despite four teams coming back from a 10-0 deficit to win (Jaguars, Lions, Colts, and Bills). The only fourth-quarter lead changes happened in the two NFC North games.

There were also many quarterback injuries in games, including the one that most people had no problem seeing. That doesn’t mean you wished for it, but you certainly aren’t going to shed a tear or think of it as a loss for the team.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Lions at Vikings: Game of the Week

With the 49ers falling apart, these NFC North games are turning into the biggest ones in the NFC this season, and Week 7 was one hell of a time to test out the Lions and Vikings. We got to see the Vikings after a bye week, and the Lions right after losing Aidan Hutchinson last week.

This 31-29 game managed to exceed the hype. The Lions failed on one of the worst fake punts you’ll ever see to start the game, then lost David Montgomery to an injury and trailed 10-0. Hard to start worse than that.

But Jared Goff completed his first 15 passes, Jahmyr Gibbs broke off a long touchdown run, and the Lions soon led 21-10 at halftime. I liked Detroit in this one because it already has two games of experience late last season against Brian Flores’ defense. They wouldn’t be as shocked by it as these other teams have been this year.

But that doesn’t mean Goff wasn’t under pressure often and had to carve up the blitz. He took 4 sacks and fumbled twice (neither lost) in the game, so it was a tough one. But he hung in there and completed 22-of-25 passes for 280 yards as he is playing as well as any quarterback right now.

Sam Darnold actually had some similar numbers in this game with 22-of-27 for 259 yards and 4 sacks. Justin Jefferson had another big game against the Lions, including a touchdown in the third quarter to make it 21-17.

But while Montgomery returned to the game, it wasn’t for the best. With 6:00 left, Montgomery lost the ball on a run and the Vikings scooped it up for a stunning 36-yard touchdown to take a 29-28 lead with 5:50 left. Huge miss on the 2-point conversion, however.

The Lions went three-and-out with Goff getting sacked on third down again. The Vikings could have ran out the clock on offense, but they too went three-and-out. Gibbs took over instead of Montgomery for the game-winning drive and delivered a huge moment with the drive’s first 34 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught a 14-yard pass, and the Lions were in field goal range.

I know Dan Campbell is as aggressive as they come, but I didn’t love the conservative approach with conceding the long field goal. I’d want to get as close as possible for an unproven pro kicker in Jake Bates, the UFL standout. But from 44 yards away, Bates delivered on the biggest kick of his brief NFL career to put the Lions up 31-29.

Darnold had 15 seconds left at his own 30. He got the ball to midfield, and I’m not sure an illegal formation penalty on a spike with 1 second left (debatable) shouldn’t just be a game-ending penalty with a 10-second runoff. That felt fishy. But the Vikings had one last chance for a Hail Mary, and you never know with Jefferson down there. However, it ended in a fitting way as the Lions sacked Darnold on his ass to end the game and escape with the win.

In the end, the big plays by the Lions were too much for Minnesota to overcome. But I’m looking forward to the other NFC North clashes this year when the Packers get involved too.

Chiefs at 49ers: Super Bowl Rematch Sees These Teams Further Apart as Injuries Mount

To date, the only direct Super Bowl rematch was Dallas vs. Buffalo in 1992-93. With the way these teams are going, we won’t see another in February. Injuries are doing their damage, but the Chiefs remain the NFL’s last unbeaten at 6-0, winners of 12 straight, while the 49ers are flailing at 3-4 after this 28-18 loss at home despite being a 2.5-point favorite.

That means Patrick Mahomes continues to be the ultimate underdog with an 11-3 SU record, but this game was little about him. This was a showcase for the defense, and even if you acknowledge the injuries for the 49ers, they still had talent on that field and the system and mind of Kyle Shanahan calling plays. The Chiefs forced Brock Purdy into one of his roughest games in the NFL as he was intercepted three times, including a total headscratcher in the end zone in the fourth quarter when the 49ers trailed 21-12. Even if he wasn’t pressured as he threw it, that pass looked like it was going right to the defender either way.

Mahomes also had two interceptions in this game, but while he’s had some headscratchers this year, it’s hard to say he did wrong on a tipped pass at the line and a play where the receiver (Xavier Worthy) fell on his route. There were at least four Chiefs who slipped on Mahomes’ incompletions in the game.

But this is the value of the Chiefs in 2024. Even when the team is turning it over multiple times or doing something silly like a fake punt that failed miserably, they overcome it with their defense, and they still score a fair number of points. They scored 28 points in this one with three of those touchdown drives from long distance.

Mahomes’ best play was as a runner when it was a tight 14-12 game. He tightrope-walked the sideline and stayed in bounds for a 33-yard run that set up his first touchdown run since 2022 on a 4th-and-goal at the 1 to make it 21-12.

Still, it’s wild to see the injuries for these teams. Both starting running backs (Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco) were out. The Chiefs were already missing their top wideouts (Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown), and then their new de-facto No. 1, JuJu Smith-Schuster, left the game early after aggravating his hamstring. The 49ers lost Deebo Samuel quickly to an illness, Brandon Aiyuk was knocked out with a potentially serious injury, and Jauan Jennings, who actually leads the team in receiving yards before this game, was already inactive. Just a mess.

But the Chiefs still found ways to score four touchdowns and actually were leading by 16 points before a San Francisco touchdown made it a 28-18 final. That final score by the Chiefs got them to 28 points, the first time they scored that much during this 12-game winning streak.

That just creates a new record, however. The Chiefs are the first team in NFL history to win 12 straight games without scoring more than 28 points in any of them. Their next opponent (Raiders) is the last team to beat them, but this season is beyond fucked if that ends up being their first loss in 2024.

It’s coming eventually with the way they’re playing, but they were still impressive enough in this game. Not everyone can do that to the 49ers, injuries or not.

Texans at Packers: My Preseason Hype Teams Played the Walk-Off FG Finish I Expected

I’ve been high on the Texans and Packers as “new powers” in the league since February really. I was looking forward to this one since we probably won’t get many games between Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud, but I was stunned at just how well Green Bay limited the Houston passing game.

The Packers have feasted on turnovers this year while still giving up their share of yards and points. But this was an impressive performance where they really held Stroud in check without a single takeaway. They held him to 86 passing yards on 21 throws, and they sacked him 4 times while flustering him all day. The Texans scored on a lot of short fields and couldn’t really sustain offense.

On the other side, Jordan Love had one of those mixed games where he made some “wow” throws, but he had a few more picks, and he couldn’t get some of his best receivers going against this pass defense.

But it was a close game as I expected. I picked the Texans to win because I trust Stroud more than Love in those moments. Sure enough, Stroud saved probably his best throw of the game for a late third down when the Texans were driving in a 21-19 game late. But the Packers had all of their timeouts, and the Texans failed to get the touchdown or a first down to run out the clock for their field goal. They had to settle for taking a 22-21 lead with 1:44 left.

A lead is a lead, but that’s not a very safe one with that much time left. However, I wanted to see how Love would fare here as we have seen him struggle to come up with a field goal in these moments. Think of last year in games like Atlanta, Denver, or San Francisco in the playoffs. He was only 2-8 at comeback opportunities before Sunday.

Also, the Packers have been going through kickers like crazy, so you had to wonder how newly signed Brandon McManus would do. I know him best from Denver, and he’s been an adequate enough kicker in his career.

But Love had to get him in range, and that didn’t prove to be a big problem this time. He marched the offense 44 yards in a hurry. McManus was left with a 45-yard kick to win it, and after an icing attempt, he delivered the goods for a 24-22 win. That’s a quality one for the Packers this year.

Jets at Steelers: Tomlin Knew

For the last six weeks, I’ve basically come on here and said that I’m not impressed with what Justin Fields is doing in the Pittsburgh offense. He looked a lot like the quarterback from Chicago in that he’s slow with his decisions, he rifles too many throws, doesn’t make the touch passes on time, he’s a magnet for sacks and fumbles, and he’s possibly the least clutch QB of the 21st century.

Yet, the NFL groupthink seemed to get stronger every week that Fields is now good, and the Steelers would be crazy to bench him for old Russell Wilson. They kept citing the 4-2 record, even though the Steelers had not won a game when the opponent scored more than 13 points all season. The offense, including Fields himself, had a lot of mediocre rankings as well. These were results you could certainly improve on with a quarterback of Wilson’s experience. He only was out because of his calf. He was going to be the Week 1 starter otherwise.

So, I was always hoping for Mike Tomlin to come to his senses and start Wilson, but I was skeptical he’d actually do it because of the team’s record. Yet, Tomlin had the balls this week to defy that national NFL groupthink and go with Wilson. People created silly stats like the “first 4-2 quarterback to get benched” when it’s not even the first time in Pittsburgh history. Joe Gilliam was benched for Terry Bradshaw in 1974 despite starting 4-1-1, a better record than 4-2. But I guess since it’s not exactly 4-2, they think their insignificant stat has meaning. Screw that.

I still liked the Jets to win the game Sunday night, but that’s because I had much higher expectations for Aaron Rodgers and that offense after a good showing (kicker aside) against Buffalo last week, and the addition of Davante Adams via trade. Sure enough, Rodgers threw his first pass to Rodgers, but the receiver couldn’t pull it in, and he finished with just 3 catches for 30 yards on 9 targets as Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson looked better in that offense.

Well, Wilson was fine until the third quarter when he popped an easy catch into the air for an interception that was returned to the 1. There’s your game changer. Rodgers didn’t have a good game and especially not a good second half, but that second pick was not his fault at all. The Jets just have many issues.

As for Wilson, he no doubt got off to a bad start. After he attempted to kill Earthworm Jim on back-to-back plays, I thought he really did go The Full McNabb with 2011 Vikings vibes. Someone sign Christian Ponder.

But games are 60 minutes, and we know even in Russ’ prime he could start a game ugly. Before you knew it, he had as many passing yards at halftime as Fields had in half of his full games this season. Wilson throws with more touch, he gives his receivers more opportunities down the field, and he makes better and faster decisions with the ball than Fields. Did he get lucky on a few passes? Sure, but it was his first game in 10 months, and his first with Pittsburgh. Do you remember how Rodgers looked in his first games of the last two seasons with New York, or Tom Brady’s debut in Tampa Bay? It was worse than this.

Wilson did a very nice job, and he showed he was mobile enough to only take 1 sack on the night. He also didn’t throw any picks. Justin Fields has literally never had a start in the NFL where he threw no picks and didn’t take multiple sacks. Wilson did that in his first game with Pittsburgh. He also didn’t fumble like Fields did weekly. The running game also didn’t die with him in there as Najee Harris continues to look highly motivated these last two games. George Pickens also caught his first touchdown of the season.

Russ had a definite huge impact on the offense, and he feels more in control at the line than Fields ever did. He won’t run as fast as Fields, but he rarely needs to. That’s not the kind of quarterback play that’s going to take you far, and Tomlin understands that. I think benching Fields will prove to be one of his smartest moves in years.

The quarterback who actually looked too old and slow on Sunday night was Rodgers. Is he going to trade Wilson next after that dropped pass turned pick? They’re 2-5 and fading fast even in a weakened AFC.

But Sunday night was a great one for Tomlin and anyone who didn’t see what the fuss was with Fields all these weeks.

Titans at Bills: Box Score Blowout Doesn’t Tell the Story

The numbers are going to make this one look like a boring rout, a 34-10 blowout where Josh Allen threw for over 300 yards, Amari Cooper caught a touchdown in his team debut, and the Titans still struggled to score with Mason Rudolph starting for an injured Will Levis (AC joint).

Those things are all true, but this was a tough game for Buffalo deep into the third quarter. The Bills went three-and-out 3 times in the first quarter and fell behind 10-0. Cooper dropped his first target. Rudolph was outplaying Allen.

But the Titans really screwed themselves to start the second half when they went for a 4th-and-2 at their own 44 and Tony Pollard was stuffed for a big loss. Why would they do that with a 10-7 lead? The offense was not thriving to the point where you could trust them to convert and actually turn it into points.

The defense was playing well, and Buffalo was struggling on offense. This just gave them a huge boost as Allen took the field 41 yards away from the end zone and the drive ended with Cooper scoring. The Bills led the rest of the game. Terrible decision by the Titans to go for it.

The Bills padded some stats late with the game in hand, including a 16-yard touchdown run after the 2-minute warning. But the Titans had a shot for most of this game. Far from your normal 34-10 rout.

Seahawks at Falcons: Surprising Rout

These teams have played many close games, and you just expected that sort of finish in a passing fest between Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins. Actually, I thought it’d be a passing clinic with Geno facing a defense without a pass rush, but he moved around well and threw for 181 yards at halftime. I just didn’t expect him to barely finish the game with 200 yards as the run game and defense showed up for Seattle to finish the Falcons off in maybe their worst team performance of the season.

Just when you thought Cousins would make it a one-score game while trailing 24-14 in the fourth quarter, the Seahawks had the plot twist with a strip-sack and recovery for a touchdown to make it 31-14 with 12:4 6 left. Cousins threw another pick on the next drive, and we ended up seeing the first NFL completion of rookie Michael Penix’s career before this one ended 34-14.

No quarterback controversy in Atlanta (yet), but this one surprised me as I thought for sure the Falcons would do more damage against that Seattle defense in the dome.

Eagles at Giants: The Saquon Revenge Game Delivers

Revenge games can be overrated but running back Saquon Barkley had one of the best you’ll ever see for the Eagles against his Giants. He really carried the offense with 176 yards on just 17 carries, and he scored the game’s first touchdown, which might have been enough given the Giants could only muster a field goal in the 28-3 blowout.

That left Jalen Hurts with an easy job as he only had to throw for 114 yards. The game was avert-your-eyes bad for pass blocking as all four quarterbacks who played took sacks, including backup Kenny Pickett, and there were 13 sacks total between the teams.

Naturally, Daniel Jones took the worst of it with 7 sacks in a game where he didn’t have left tackle Andrew Thomas (surgery). Jones finished with 43 yards on 28 pass plays, which is pathetic even for his low standards.

The Giants punted 11 times, so they were even absurdly boring in blowout fashion. At least throw some picks. Risk something.

Bengals at Browns: When Losing Is Good

The Browns got Nick Chubb back for the first time in over a year, and they lost Deshaun Watson for the season to a torn Achilles on a non-contact play. All in all, that sounds like a great day, right?

Oddly enough, Chubb scored a touchdown on the drive where Watson was injured right before the half. Almost as if karma was taking over and the fortune was changing for Cleveland. But I thought it was odd before the game that Jameis Winston was announced as the No. 3 quarterback, demoted for the young Dorian Thompson-Robinson. What did Jameis do to get demoted? I thought he was the best quarterback on this roster.

It may have cost the Browns too, because DTR stunk off the bench. He completed 11-of-24 passes for 82 yards with multiple picks. A 34-yard run was his longest play on a day the Browns couldn’t actually run the ball on Cincinnati, a defense that has done a huge turnaround these last two weeks thanks to playing lines like the Giants and Browns in 2024.

But DTR was injured, allowing Winston to play in the fourth quarter. But it was too late by then. The Bengals started the game with a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown, but that Joe Burrow-led offense managed just two touchdowns in this 21-14 final. Another ho-hum performance where the Bengals were fortunate to be playing a bad team.

But the Watson story is over for 2024, and maybe that could help the Browns move on from him faster. Cleveland players supported Watson after the game and criticized the fans for cheering his injury. I could see where they’re coming from as teammates, and probably as players who hope they aren’t cheered while injured down the road. But they should also understand why fans feel that way about Watson.

Of course, I wouldn’t expect Winston or Myles Garrett to be the voice of reason on this topic. Winston is especially a bad messenger for this, and Garrett should know better as someone who is supposed to be the face of the franchise.

But it was nice to see Chubb back and in the end zone. More of that going forward.

Patriots vs. Jaguars: Do I Get on a Soapbox Again About That Strategy?

I didn’t get up to watch this one and see the Jaguars explode back from a 10-0 hole, but I was awake to see the 2-point conversion strategy become a talking point again. The Patriots were down 25-10, scored a touchdown with 8:22 left, decided to go for 2, didn’t get it, and they trailed by 9+ for the rest of the game, which eventually became a 32-16 loss after a poor finish.

I am consistently against going for 2 on the first touchdown as it is the strategy more likely to lead you into needing one onside kick recovery, if not two, and I never want anything to do with that hopeless endeavor. I also think the later in the game, the worse of a strategy it is. This wasn’t super late, but you have to keep in mind the Patriots hadn’t scored since the first quarter.

Also, when people talk about having “more information” aspect of it, do they ever consider things like the fact that the Patriots never ran a play from deeper than the Jacksonville 16 in this game? Seriously. Their failed 2-point conversion attempt was their only snap inside the final 15 yards of opponent territory in the game. Not exactly much practice at running your red zone and goal line packages in this game. Instead you’re completely cold to that area in the game, and now you have to make this crucial play or you’re down 2 scores with half a quarter left. Just something to consider that I never see considered. I don’t think confidence gets considered enough, not to mention the hopelessness felt from being down 2 scores.

But I don’t feel like getting into it any more over an inconsequential game between two of the worst teams in the league. I just know when the Patriots forced a punt and got the ball back with 3:58 left, it sure as hell would have been nicer if they were down 25-17 instead of 25-16. That way you could even punt on 4th-and-26 instead of having to go for it and for sure ending the game early with a big loss.

At least give me a chance in a one-score game. But the Patriots should again feel some encouragement with Drake Maye, who threw for 276 yards, 2 more touchdowns, and only took 2 sacks on 37 pass attempts. I’m not sure what sitting behind Jacoby Brissett did for him, but I’m glad we’re past that part of the season.

That still doesn’t mean I want to wake up at 9:30 A.M. to watch the post-Belichick Patriots play overseas against the London Jaguars.

Raiders at Rams: The “If a Bear Shits in the Woods…” Game of the Week

It’s a little early in the season to just not care at all about these teams, but that’s where I am already. I just don’t see either being part of the playoff picture. Matthew Stafford and Gardner Minshew both threw for 154 yards in this game, though Minshew did his work off the bench after starter Aidan O’Connell left with an injury.

But the Raiders kept trying to chip away with field goals while the Rams missed potentially a huge 35-yard field goal with 10:11 left that would have made it a 23-12 lead. Instead, Minshew later got the ball back in a 20-15 game with 1:39 left. If he truly is the Ryan Fitzpatrick of the 2020s, he lived up to the reputation with a game-ending interception on the third play of the drive. Good pressure on the drive by Jared Verse, who I guess is still the frontrunner for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Dolphins at Colts: Neither Team Had Their Best Quarterback

Tough loss for Miami (2-4) if they were hoping to get back in this thing with Tua Tagovailoa maybe returning at quarterback next week. They were up 10-0 and Anthony Richardson couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn with his passes.

But the Dolphins gave up a big completion before halftime, which led to a field goal for the Colts. Then in the third quarter, they really coughed up the game to the Colts. Raheem Mostert lost a fumble, which led to a 28-yard touchdown drive, then Alec Ingold lost a fumble in the red zone in a 10-10 game.

The Colts had the ball to start the fourth and Richardson led what is technically his first game-winning drive in the NFL, ending with a 22-yard field goal with 8:41 left. But the Dolphins lost Tyler Huntley to injury, and he was replaced by the dreadful Tim Boyle. Kicker Jason Sanders missed a 54-yard tying field goal with 5:14 left.

After the Colts added a field goal to make it 16-10, a move you can get away with against Boyle, it was a poorly-run 2-minute drill for the Dolphins that didn’t make it past the Indy 33 before Boyle sailed his 4th-down pass out of bounds. Either he’s incredibly inaccurate and tried to get that pass to the sidelines, or he didn’t realize it was fourth down.

Either way, I hate entertaining either of these teams for wild card spots. This is not good football. A game between Joe Flacco and Tua might have been alright though.

Panthers at Commanders: Please, Spare My Favorite Rookie

The crazy thing is Jayden Daniels left in the first quarter with a rib injury and the Commanders still won 40-7. The Washington defense still matched the Carolina team in scoring thanks to a horrific Andy Dalton pick-six starting the scoring in the game. But Marcus Mariota replaced Daniels very well, and it was business as usual for this offense.

I think that says a lot more about how bad the Panthers are (again) than anything about Daniels being a system quarterback. You can’t teach his 46-yard run to anyone, but Mariota is a good fit for that offense.

I just hope Daniels is okay to go next week in the showdown with Chicago and fellow rookie Caleb Williams. It was clear there was no need to rush him back in this game with the score lopsided so quickly.

Next week: Vikings-Rams on TNF. Better than putting Sam Darnold in prime time a week later when the ghosts are out. Eagles-Bengals is a nice game for teams who peaked in 2022. I hope they #FreeJameis against Baltimore in Cleveland. The Falcons-Bucs rematch could be something after the first game was excellent. We need Jayden Daniels healthy for that Chicago game to save the late-window slate. Cowboys-49ers is oddly more interesting now that both teams are struggling. Giants-Steelers means we get to live the Russ experience in prime time again, but I see that as T.J. Watt’s launch game towards DPOY since he gets to face Daniel Jones. Overall, a huge step down from the Week 7 marquee games.