Tag: Quarterbacks

Top 100 NFL Quarterbacks of the 21st Century: Part II (86-72)

~ Scott ~ 6 Comments

Including the playoffs, there are 100 NFL quarterbacks who have started at least 30 games in the last 20 seasons (2001-20). In part I, I began to rank these quarterbacks from No. 100 to No. 87.

Why stop at 87? I am viewing this list in tiers, and those 14 quarterbacks were the worst of the bunch. Here in part II, I will be looking at more serviceable players who never sustained success but may have had that one special season. The fact that half of this top 100 list is comprised of players who either sucked or were nothing special should serve as a reminder of how difficult it is to find a good quarterback.

86. Gus Frerotte

He peaked with Washington back in 1996, but most people will remember him for headbutting a wall and injuring his neck. Frerotte actually had winning seasons as a starter with the 2005 Dolphins (9-6) and 2008 Vikings (8-3), but he was not good in either of those seasons. For a Randy Moss appreciation stat, consider that Frerotte only started two games with Moss as his receiver in 2003, and he threw five touchdowns to him in those two games.

85. Tarvaris Jackson

Remember when the Vikings tried to replace Daunte Culpepper and Randy Moss with Tarvaris Jackson and Troy Williamson? That didn’t quite work as the two connected on one touchdown together. I don’t want to speak ill of the dead here as Jackson unfortunately passed away last year at the age of 36. He was the bridge quarterback between Matt Hasselbeck and Russell Wilson in Seattle, and he won a Super Bowl as Wilson’s backup.

84. Brian Hoyer

The number of times the Patriots have signed, cut, and brought Brian Hoyer back since 2009 is pretty incredible. They just did it again, cutting him before expecting to bring him back prior to Week 1. There was a time in 2013-15 with the Browns and Texans where Hoyer was 15-10 as a starter with 36 TD, 23 INT, 7.3 YPA, and 83.2 passer rating. Not bad for an undrafted QB with poor college stats. He also looked solid for the Bears in 2016, but since that time he is 1-12 as a starter with stats that are not that far off from the line I just posted.

83. Jacoby Brissett

Brissett started 15 games in two different seasons for the Colts due to Andrew Luck’s season-long injury in 2017 and surprise retirement before 2019. He ranked 26th and 21st in QBR in those seasons, but at least he kept the interceptions low and showed he could take fewer sacks under Frank Reich’s offense in 2019. I would not rule out the days of him starting being completely over, but with the way teams draft high picks to play quarterback now, a career backup is the most likely outcome for Jacoby.

82. Sam Bradford

If I was writing this one in true Sam Bradford form, I would require you to pay to read something where even the best parts barely pass for mediocre. I was never on board with Bradford in the NFL. He got praise as a rookie just because he had a high volume of attempts and the team finished 7-9 in one of the worst divisions ever (2010 NFC West won by 7-9 Seattle) a year after going 1-15. Of course, most of the wins were powered by the defense. Bradford regressed in 2011, went through an injury period, had a bump in play in 2012-13, got injured again, then had a misleading stat line in Chip Kelly’s system in Philadelphia before setting an NFL record with a 71.6 completion rate in Minnesota in 2016. But that offense was not good and he still finished with a losing record.

Maybe 2017 would have been the magical year where he finally put it together, but his knee failed him again and Case Keenum stole the spotlight. Bradford joined the Cardinals in 2018 and was abysmal in three starts and cut before the season ended. He still got $15 million guaranteed for that season.

Bradford’s career felt like a Ponzi scheme. Get drafted No. 1 overall, convince people you’re the real deal, then just fleece multiple teams for a decade. Bradford’s rookie contract had a maximum value of $86 million, an absurd amount for someone who had yet to play a down in the NFL. Fortunately, the 2010 draft was the end of that CBA and teams got wiser on rookie deals starting in 2011.

But Bradford was still able to make $130 million in his career. It is practically impossible to name another player who did less and earned more.

81. Shaun Hill

I am still president of the Shaun Hill fan club. #ThatsMyQB.

In all seriousness, Hill was one of the best backups in the league. What made him so interesting to me is the way he outperformed No. 1 overall picks that I never was sold on like Alex Smith and Sam Bradford. He did this while being their teammate too, so you could compare their performance with the same coaches and players around them. He even had a better season with the Lions in 2010 than Matthew Stafford had in his first two injury-plagued seasons.

No team ever really chose Hill to be their intended starter. It was always an injury situation or benching that got him on the field, but for a backup, he was more than solid.

80. Matt Moore

He was no Tony Romo, but as far as undrafted quarterback success stories go, Moore is one of the better ones this century. He had some decent games with the Panthers and Dolphins, even starting a playoff game in place of an injured Ryan Tannehill in the 2016 season. Moore also went 1-1 as a starter for the 2019 Chiefs when Patrick Mahomes dislocated his kneecap. That close win over Minnesota was crucial in keeping the Chiefs in line for the No. 2 seed and a bye, which helped them win a Super Bowl.

Moore averaged 7.13 YPA and a 87.4 passer rating for his career, which makes him the only QB on my list ranked 100 to 64 that broke 7.0 YPA and the second to break 85.0 in passer rating.

79. Derek Anderson

Before he came out as a right-wing meathead on Twitter, Anderson was a one-year wonder in the 2007 season for Cleveland. He really came out of nowhere to throw 29 touchdowns, make the Pro Bowl, and lead the Browns to 10 wins, the team’s best offense and season from 1995-2019.

But I always warned people that his one-year wonder season was closer to a half-season wonder. In the last eight games, Anderson completed 55.6% of his passes with 12 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 6.22 YPA, and a 73.7 passer rating. That’s the kind of stat line that looks painfully familiar to Browns fans as it is not good enough to win in this league. Cleveland scored 30 points just once in those final eight games after doing so three times in the first half of the season when Anderson’s YPA was a strong 8.20.

Predictably, Anderson turned into a pumpkin in 2008, completing 50.2% of his passes with 5.71 YPA and a 66.5 passer rating. His only highlight with the 2010 Cardinals was this “Nothing is funny to me!” meltdown.

78. Tim Couch

While people often defend No. 1 quarterbacks for underperforming, I usually find myself not buying those defenses. I think David Carr and Sam Bradford were just never going to be good in this league. I think Alex Smith needed an incredible amount of time and talent around him before he finally showed he could be adequate under Jim Harbaugh.

But a No. 1 pick labeled a bust who I always defend is Tim Couch. I think the Browns did a horrible job of building a team around him and hiring good coaches. Yet I always pointed out how the Browns were doing better with Couch as their starter than anyone else.

That was through 2012 but given the way the Browns performed prior to Baker Mayfield’s arrival, I am confident it would show the same results that the Browns won more games and got better QB play with Couch. He was sneaky good with the game on the line, leading the Browns to 10 fourth-quarter comebacks and 11 game-winning drives, including four in that 2002 playoff season where Kelly Holcomb got the playoff start. Before Aaron Rodgers became the ultimate Hail Mary QB, Couch won two games with a Hail Mary touchdown against the 1999 Saints and 2002 Jaguars.

People want to talk about the Texans breaking Carr with the sacks, but let’s look at Couch. He took a league-high 56 sacks as a rookie in 1999 and had a horrific sack rate of 12.3%. He cut that down to 4.4% in his second season. In all five of his seasons, his passer rating ranged from 73.1 to 77.6. Not good, not much progress, but at least there was some consistency there. I truly believe with a better team and better health luck that he could have been a decent starter.

77. Josh McCown

Even before he was a Zoom quarterback and the oldest practice squad player ever in 2020, McCown had one of the strangest careers in NFL history. Perhaps his most memorable moment is when he threw a 28-yard touchdown pass on 4th-and-25 to knock the 2003 Vikings out of the playoffs in Week 17. That was a thrilling moment, and yet, McCown went on to compile one of the worst records in NFL history in crunch time. He was 6-37 (.140) at 4QC opportunities and 7-40 (.149) at game-winning drive opportunities.

The 2017 season with the Jets is McCown’s most prolific year with 2,926 yards and 18 touchdown passes. Otherwise, he never had more than 13 touchdowns in any year. But the best he ever played was in 2013 with the Bears. He threw 13 touchdowns to one interception for a 109.0 passer rating. He finished that season with a positive DVOA under pressure, which almost never happens as all quarterbacks play worse when pressured.

McCown’s only playoff action came at the age of 40 after Carson Wentz was injured in the 2019 wild card against Seattle. It made him the oldest quarterback to ever make his playoff debut. McCown finished the game despite tearing his hamstring off the bone in the second quarter. He was no doubt a competitor, but he was like the RC Cola version of Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Speaking of the Jets…

76. Mark Sanchez

The first quarterback on the list with playoff wins in multiple seasons. But will Sanchez be better remembered for going to two AFC Championship Games or The Butt Fumble? Yeah, I think the answer to that is obvious. It is quite arguably the funniest play in NFL history. And to think Sanchez (94.3) still has a higher career playoff passer rating than Tom Brady (90.4), topped off by his best playoff game coming against one of Brady’s best teams in that 2010 season.

Sanchez had seven game-winning drives in those first two seasons, and a few were really impressive ones in the final minute of the game. He was so erratic, and the run game and defense really carried him at times, but it would still be hard to call him a bust. A disappointment for sure, but much like Brock Osweiler, Sanchez’s existence in this NFL timeline served a few purposes for me that I will always appreciate.

75. Vinny Testaverde

Such a Jets thing to talk about a quarterback with a so-so season who still snuck into the playoffs. Old man Vinny got the Jets there in 2001 after leading five comebacks on the way to a 10-6 finish. They lost in the first round to the Raiders. But that was the end of Testaverde’s success in New York. He started 15 games for the Cowboys in 2004 at the age of 41, which was very unusual at the time. He even started six games at 44 for the Panthers in 2007, the end of his career.

Testaverde (six), Warren Moon (one), and Steve DeBerg (one) are the only quarterbacks to start a game in their age-44 season. None of them were still playing at 45. That would be great if this remained the case…

74. Blake Bortles

On the one hand, Blake Bortles is one of 15 quarterbacks in NFL history who can show their resume has a season with 35 touchdown passes AND that they won a championship or led by double digits in a championship game.

Those things really happened. On the other hand, there is a statistical argument that 2015 Bortles is the worst season with 35 touchdown passes in history as he was a Garbage Time God who led the league in interceptions (18) and sacks (51). As for the 2017 playoff run that nearly gave us a Bortles-Foles Super Bowl, that was Jacksonville taking full advantage of season-ending injuries to Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson in the division. They then took advantage of a Buffalo team that had no business being in the tournament, but silly tie-breaker rules made it happen, and Bortles won that game 10-3. Of course, his crowning moment was that 45-42 win in Pittsburgh in the divisional round, a game I only wish I could blame Dick LeBeau for since it was the most embarrassing thing since Tebow 316.

But after blowing the lead to the Patriots in the championship game, it was all downhill from there for Bortles. He lost his last eight starts for the Jaguars and was already off the team by 2019. He has not started a game since, but with his mobility and experience, I would not rule out that we’ve seen the last of him in this league.

In a better world where #MylesJackWasntDown, Bortles would have been an unlikely Super Bowl starter.

73. Tommy Maddox

What does Maddox have that the other 27 quarterbacks really could not claim since 2001? He had a good individual season that led his team to the playoffs where he continued to play well. He was not carried by the Pittsburgh defense in 2002 because the defense was poor that year. The offense was too to start the season after Kordell Stewart failed to sustain his success. Maddox replaced Stewart and led a comeback win against the rival Browns in a rare year where they were a winning team.

Maddox kept the job, the offense shifted to a quick passing game that was successful, and he overcame an injury scare to return in December. His first game back against expansion Houston is one of the most infamous shitshows in NFL history. Maddox had three turnovers that were returned for touchdowns in the 24-6 loss. Pittsburgh was a 14-point favorite and lost the game at home despite outgaining Houston 422 to 47 in yards. Proof that you can rush a quarterback too early from injury.

But Maddox regained his composure, and he even went into Tampa Bay and finished 17-of-23 for 236 yards and a touchdown in a 17-7 win. That was against one of the best defenses in NFL history and a team that went on to win the Super Bowl. In the playoffs, the Steelers were down 17 points at home to Cleveland before Maddox led one of the all-time great comeback wins. He passed for 367 yards and three touchdowns in a 36-33 win. A week later in Tennessee, the Steelers were again in a high-scoring game and lost 34-31 in overtime after kicker Joe Nedney flopped to draw a running into the kicker penalty. Maddox played admirably in the loss.

A decade after he was a first-round bust, Maddox came out of nowhere that season to finish third in TD%, fourth in YPA, and 13th in pass DVOA. He failed to repeat this success in 2003 as a 6-10 finish led to the Steelers drafting Ben Roethlisberger in 2004. Maddox started two games in 2005 as the third-string quarterback and played horrifically in two overtime losses that had so much to do with the team only being a sixth seed on their way to winning a Super Bowl.

But as a Steelers fan, you really have to say thanks to Maddox, who changed the course of football forever in Pittsburgh. Thank you for an entertaining 2002 season that put an end to the Kordell era. Thank you for a subpar 2003 that led to drafting Roethlisberger. Thank you for getting injured – relax, it wasn’t serious – in 2004 and letting Roethlisberger take over early. Thank you for playing like ass in 2005 so that the team had proper motivation as a sixth-seed underdog to win Bill Cowher a Super Bowl.

Thank you, Tommy.

72. Jon Kitna

As a Pittsburgh fan, I probably have more respect for Kitna than the average NFL fan. He was clearly never a great quarterback, but his three biggest moments all arguably came against the Steelers. In 2001, he threw the ball 68 times in a 26-23 overtime win against a Pittsburgh team that finished 13-3. It is the only loss in Bill Cowher’s career where the Steelers led by more than 10 points as Cincinnati trailed 14-0 early.

In 2003, Kitna had his finest season right after the Bengals drafted Carson Palmer No. 1 overall. He was down 20-17 in the final minute in Pittsburgh, but after getting the ball at midfield, he only needed two throws to get in the end zone for a game-winning touchdown. Kitna finished that season with 26 touchdowns and the Bengals finished 8-8, a big deal for a team that had been so bad for so long. This paved the way for the Palmer era. But when Palmer was injured on the first drive against Pittsburgh in the 2005 wild card game, Kitna had to step in. He played well early, and the Bengals twice led by 10 points, but the defense faltered and Cincinnati lost. It was Kitna’s final game with the team.

Kitna had back-to-back 4,000-yard passing seasons for Detroit, but under Mike Martz’s scheme, he took a beating in the pocket. Detroit finished 7-9 in 2007, the team’s best record since 2000. But Kitna started four games during the 0-16 campaign in 2008. He later had some decent games with the Cowboys in 2010 after Tony Romo was injured. He may have had a better career if he played for franchises that were not so dysfunctional.

Top 100 NFL Quarterbacks of the 21st Century: Part I (100-87)

~ Scott ~ 7 Comments

As I get ready for the 2021 NFL season, an update to my largest database – stats on every game since 2001 – gave me an opportunity to write about a perfect collection of round numbers.

Including the playoffs, there are 100 quarterbacks who have started at least 30 games in the last 20 seasons (2001-20). If you love top 100 lists, the central limit theorem, or the 21st century, then there is something there for you. As we near the 20-year anniversary of 9/11, I thought this would be a good time before final predictions to reflect on these two decades of football given that 2001 was the first season where I really became a die-hard viewer of all things NFL. It was the season where I started watching far more than just the Steelers game and the occasional Monday Night Football game and the Super Bowl.

So, how about a ranking of those 100 quarterbacks? This is an exercise I like to do every few years to test where my values are in analyzing quarterback play. How does one weigh a career like Josh Allen’s after he blew up in his third season to someone like Matt Schaub, who had several years of solid play (2007-12) but never up to the level of Allen’s 2020?

What really stood out to me about this process was just how difficult it was to sort the quarterbacks ranked 18-86. The top and bottom of the list came together rather easily, but in between there was a lot of mediocrity and tough calls.

But right now, this first part is focusing on the bottom 14 quarterbacks. Remember, a player had to start at least 30 games to make the list. I have seen plenty of worse quarterbacks play in the NFL in the last 20 years: Nathan Peterman, Ryan Lindley, Curtis Painter, Caleb Hanie, JaMarcus Russell, Cody Pickett, Jeff Tuel, etc. Who said you need experience to suck so good? (I can make that joke since being the host of Jeopardy! is not in my future.)

On to the list…

100. Blaine Gabbert

It pains me to see that Blaine Gabbert has more Super Bowl rings than Dan Marino and Andrew Luck (and many others) combined. Even more painful than Cecil Shorts in 2012 (Colts fans know that one). But seriously, Gabbert may be the worst quarterback in NFL history who got to play this many games. By getting in a game against Detroit and throwing two touchdowns so that Tom Brady would not get all the stat-padding, Gabbert broke the 1,500-attempt mark that day to officially qualify for NFL rate stats. His 72.3 passer rating is hardly the worst of all time because the era we are in will not allow it. But his ANY/A+ at Pro Football Reference, which does adjust for sacks and era, is 77, beating out Rick Mirer (80) and Kyle Boller (82) for the lowest among all passers with at least 1,500 attempts.

Gabbert is also such a chickenshit quarterback that he makes Alex Smith look like Aaron Rodgers when it comes to throwing past the sticks on third down. I may have called the stat BLAINE instead of ALEX had I known better. Behind Line Attempts Is Nurturing Existence. It just doesn’t flow as well.

99. Joey Harrington

Yikes, what a draft class in 2002. David Carr went No. 1 to expansion Houston and couldn’t stop taking sacks. Joey Harrington went No. 3 to Detroit and couldn’t get rid of the ball quicker. He wanted no part of that smoke. Harrington still has two of the top 10 seasons in lowest sack% in NFL history. Unfortunately, it made him lead ineffective offenses. Harrington was 1-11 when he threw for at least 255 yards. He was 1-34 as a starter when his team allowed more than 21 points.

My top memory of him was in 2004, his best season. He threw for a season-high 361 yards and what should have been a game-tying touchdown to force overtime with the Vikings. But the Lions botched the extra point and lost 28-27. Harrington looked crushed on the sideline. At least he got some revenge with three touchdowns on Detroit as a member of the Dolphins in 2006. But in six seasons as a starter, Harrington never cracked 6.5 YPA in any season. His 5.79 YPA is still the lowest in NFL history, and if you know how much I like that stat, then you know he was going to rank near the bottom of this list.

98. Kyle Boller

This may be stretching the truth, but let’s go with the alleged story that Brian Billick and the Ravens drafted Boller in the first round because he could throw a football 70 yards from his knees. That sure came in handy as he struggled to throw for 70 yards in the first half of games. But that night in 2007 when this bust nearly upset the unbeaten Patriots was when I knew that team would not go undefeated. Not when you should have lost to Kyle Boller a week after A.J. Feeley gave you a scare.

I did not plan this, but my first three quarterbacks have the lowest YPA of any quarterbacks to enter the league this century and throw at least 1,500 passes. Harrington (5.79) and Boller (5.88) did not even crack 6.0 YPA, but Gabbert (6.08) actually looks worse if you adjust for era.

97. Trent Edwards

Any quarterback known as “Captain Checkdown” will be on my shit list. Oddly enough, Edwards was probably still better in the pros as a third-round pick than JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn were in that 2007 class. But I gave up any hope for him after that 2009 opener against the Patriots when the Bills literally coughed up a 24-13 lead by fumbling a kickoff in between touchdowns. All Edwards had to do was lead a game-winning field goal drive, but he took two sacks and that was that. Not sure I ever watched another game from him.

96. Colt McCoy

Fun fact: McCoy has the worst record as a starter against the spread (9-20-1, .317) of any of the quarterbacks in this top 100.

My memories of McCoy are from college when it was so sad to see him injured at the start of a national championship game. In the NFL, I definitely saw his first start against the Steelers in 2010, a 28-10 loss where he was not that bad given the circumstances. Then the Browns upset the Saints and Patriots, but those games were more about the defense and making a Madden cover star out of Peyton Hillis than anything McCoy did.  Sounds like the Seattle upset last year he started for the Giants. He threw for just 105 yards in that one. He is still in the league (Cardinals), but if I had to venture a guess at something McCoy is actually good at, I would go with standing for the national anthem.

95. Christian Ponder

I never believed in Ponder, but it would have been nice if he got to start that 2012 NFC wild card game in Green Bay instead of Joe Webb. Especially since the Vikings beat the Packers in Week 17 with Ponder having arguably the best game of his career. But he was someone who had to be carried by a running game (Adrian Peterson). Ponder had 136.8 rushing yards per start to support him in his career. The only other quarterback in this top 100 with more than 130 yards per game is Jimmy Garoppolo (139.2), but we know Ponder never had a season like Garoppolo had in 2019. He never had a five-game run like Garoppolo did when he joined the 49ers either.

94. Rex Grossman

The Sex Cannon himself. It is still hard to believe the 2006 Bears got to the Super Bowl with this guy. He may have started the “will good [QB name] or bad [QB name] show up today?” with his play being so erratic that year. His performance against the Cardinals on Monday Night Football that year gave us the great Denny Green meme that will live in infamy, and it’s also the worst quarterback performance you will ever see during a 20-point comeback win.

If “Peyton Manning won his only Super Bowl with the Colts against Rex Grossman” is a diss, then maybe Drew Brees and the Saints shouldn’t have lost to them by 25 points in the damn NFC Championship Game. That one always bugs me. Amusingly, Grossman swept the 2011 Giants with Washington. Yep, the same Giants that swept the Patriots that year and won the Super Bowl.

The only positive thing I’ll say is that Grossman had that “fuck it, I’m throwing deep” mentality that is refreshing to see in a league where guys like Gabbert and Edwards play so scared. This is why Grossman is ranked a little higher because he could actually have some decent games. But his lows were also really god damn low.

93. J.P. Losman

If the 2004 quarterback class is compared to the 1983 quarterback class, then I guess Losman is the Todd Blackledge eyesore of the group. Go figure, Buffalo picked the rotten apple. But looking at his stats again, I am amused that he raised his completion percentage from 49.6% in 2005 to 62.5% in 2006, his best season. Wow, I thought only Josh Allen did that kind of increase?

Relax, #BillsMafia. Allen was much better in 2020 than Losman was in 2006, which proved to be fool’s gold as he never got better. But at least that 2006 season was better than anything Captain Checkdown Trent Edwards did for the team.

92. Chad Henne

Man, this guy went 0-4 against Ohio State only to get payback on the Browns in the playoffs 12 years after being drafted. F’n savage. Yes, Henne finally has a career moment after stepping in for an injured Patrick Mahomes last postseason. He scrambled unexpectedly for 13 yards on a third-and-14 before icing the game with a fourth-down completion to Tyreek Hill.

What else can I say about Henne? He is tied with John Elway and Steve McNair for the most seasons in NFL history (three) with no more than 15 touchdown passes on at least 450 pass attempts. Also, I don’t feel like updating this, but Henne has barely played since 2014 so the numbers probably are similar. Apparently, he has had some great fumble luck.

Finally, with the way the game is going statistically, it is very likely that Henne will be the last player who will ever have three seasons with more interceptions than touchdowns (min. 400 attempts).

91. Sam Darnold

I may be hedging a little that he will get better away from Adam Gase and the Jets, but so far, I am not buying anything Darnold is selling except that 46-yard touchdown run against the Broncos last year. That was a sweet play, but overall, he’s a sub-60% passer who takes an inordinate number of sacks and throws too many picks. He has also been trending in the wrong direction, but Carolina is a fresh start for him. Just sweep for ghosts first.

90. Geno Smith

Christ, do you see why the AFC East played out the way it did for two decades? I’m on my 11th quarterback, and so far, we have two draft picks by the Bills, one by the Dolphins, and two by the Jets. Believe it or not, Geno was once thought to be an option for the No. 1 pick to the Chiefs in that dreadful 2013 draft.

Smith led five game-winning drives as a 2013 rookie, but I know somewhere I wrote that they weren’t impressive ones. The one against the Patriots in overtime saw him complete just one 12-yard pass early in the drive. Everything else was a run. Geno just never sold me. He made modest statistical improvement in 2014, but the team got worse, and he only has started two games since. Just a brutal quarterback draft where Smith is in competition with Mike Glennon and EJ Manuel for best in class.

89. Quincy Carter

Carter last played for the Jets (2004), but he was supposed to still be Dallas’ starter that season. However, the team cut him in August after substance abuse problems. This actually saved Tony Romo’s roster spot that year as an undrafted player in his second year. But Carter was carried by the defense to the playoffs in 2003 and was never anything special. His most notable game, which was his only 300-yard game and his only high-scoring win, started with a pick-six actually against the Giants on MNF. The Cowboys won 35-32 in overtime, but just getting there took a 26-yard completion from Carter in the final seconds to tie the game.

To think, we may never have seen Romo do anything in this league if Carter was more professional in his youth.

88. David Carr

Once upon a time, Carr was only the third true rookie quarterback to start 16 games, joining Rick Mirer and Peyton Manning. We did not see this again until 2008 when Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco flipped the script on starting rookies in Week 1. Now, we see it all the time, but it was a bit risky to do that to Carr on an expansion Texans team that was not good like the Panthers and Jaguars were in 1995.

Carr took a beating that first year and was sacked 76 times, an NFL record unlikely to be broken. His 68 sacks in his third season (2005) rank third all time. Carr’s career sack rate (10.54%) is the highest in NFL history by anyone not named Greg Landry.

But I feel like Carr’s career is a good case study in QB statistics. I was in high school when he came into the league, and given all the historic sack numbers he was taking, this led naïve, inexperienced me to believe that sacks are an offensive line stat. It’s all on the line to protect the quarterback. Of course, as I gained experience in studying the game, I saw that sacks are much more of a quarterback stat. He must get rid of the ball in a timely fashion or else you get pressure and sacks. The line obviously still shares some of the responsibility, and quick sacks can be utilized to place proper blame, but overall this is more reflective of the quarterback’s performance than the line’s.

While Houston was absolutely weak in the OL department in Carr’s career, note that he went to Carolina in 2007 and still had a sack rate of 8.7%. I think if we had the advanced metrics for Carr’s Houston career, we would have seen a quarterback who did his line few favors.

Then there is completion percentage. Carr’s 2006 season under new coach Gary Kubiak always felt so fishy to me because he led the league in completion percentage at 68.3%, which was one of the highest seasons ever at the time. But he was 24th in DVOA, 21st in QBR, threw more picks than touchdowns, and the offense was still 20th in yards per drive and 23rd in points per drive. Carr’s other numbers were just bad. It was a lot of dinking and dunking to cut down on sacks and boost that completion percentage. This season felt like a blueprint for Sam Bradford to follow years later and make completion percentage a meaningless metric when depth of target is not taken into account.

So, Carr had a pretty shit career and I think he would have been a bust in any city. With that said, do you think this tweet had anything to do with all three Carr brothers blocking me on Twitter?

Truthfully, I think I was already blocked before it. I’ve pulled no punches in saying that this is the softest family in football. These guys do not handle criticism well at all, and now we see David showing a lot of favoritism for his brother as a media analyst.

So, why even rank him this high? His 2004 season is probably the best season by any of the quarterbacks listed so far. He was not carried to team success like a Ponder or Grossman or Carter. It actually seemed like Carr turned the corner, and despite still taking a league-high 49 sacks, he cut his percentage down and the Texans had somewhat of a functioning offense (14th in yards per drive, 21st in points per drive). This was Andre Johnson’s second year on the team, and there is nothing wrong with giving your young quarterback a legit No. 1 receiver.

Of course, we learned that playing the defenses of the 2004 AFC South and NFC North were very beneficial to putting up great numbers that year, one where all offensive numbers were up after the NFL reminded officials that illegal contact after five yards is still a rule. If that schedule boost helped produce career years for Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper, it could also work for Carr and Joey Harrington as both peaked that season and never came close to repeating it.

If Carr was “broken” by his 2002 rookie situation, then 2004 never should have been possible, right? This is why I will never buy into the idea that you can “ruin” a quarterback by playing him too early. The only way that happens is if you physically break him, which is something that could happen in Joe Burrow’s case with Cincinnati’s offensive line. But I’m not even sure we got to October last year before I could confidently say that Burrow will be better in the NFL than this original Carr brother was.

87. Brock Osweiler

If Robert Pattinson was six inches taller and had no discernible talent, he would be Brock Osweiler. This is a hard one since I know that 2016 season in Houston was awful, and the playoff win against the Raiders was some Connor Cook’d up bullshit. But unlike the first 13 players here, Osweiler did serve a role in helping a team win a Super Bowl, and helped my favorite player retire as a champion again.

While I always rejected the notion that Osweiler should have continued to start over Peyton Manning for Denver that year, I do not see an injured Manning getting those pivotal wins against the Patriots and Bengals that helped the Broncos secure the No. 1 seed and homefield in the playoffs.

Still, John Elway’s Tall QB fetish likely cost the Broncos a better shot at a dynasty by drafting Osweiler over Russell Wilson in 2012. He gave rise to a Seattle team that beat the Broncos convincingly in 2013 while screwing with the future of the team in the post-Peyton years. Imagine if Wilson got to step in there once Manning retired, which could have come sooner if 2013 ended with him on top after breaking multiple records that year. But nope, the Broncos won one ring, and when Osweiler came back in 2017, he failed to win a start for the team.

But I have to say his existence in this timeline came with some personal benefits.

Part II: Some of your favorite journeymen and one-year wonders coming soon (#86-51)

NFL QB Fumble Rates: Russell Wilson Rarely Loses the Ball

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

In updating career stats through 2019, I wanted to look at the rate of lost fumbles for all 98 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 pass attempts since 1991.

First, a scatter plot with career fumbles (ranging from Teddy Bridgewater at 12 to Brett Favre at 166) versus lost fumble rate (ranging from Bridgewater/Tyrod at 25.0% to Kyle Orton at 63.6%).

LostFumPct

Orton may have only fumbled 33 times, but he lost 21 of them. He’s the only QB over 60%, and coincidentally he’s just ahead of his predecessor Rex Grossman (59.4%). Marc Bulger also lost 59.5% for the second-highest rate since 1991. Andy Dalton (57.1%) and Matt Ryan (51.4%) are the only active QBs above 50% in lost fumbles.

I wish we had fumble data broken down better into fumbles on aborted snaps/handoffs, fumbles on QB runs, and strip-sacks. You would assume someone with more strip-sacks would have a worse lost fumble%, but I couldn’t confirm that right now. Covering up a lot of bad exchanges with the center could also lower a QB’s lost fumble rate.

Russell Wilson has only lost 20 of his 74 fumbles (27.0%) and NFL dot com has his recovering 31 fumbles. I don’t have recovery data for all QBs, and I also don’t know if it’s available anywhere broken down by recovery of own fumbles vs. teammate fumbles, but that could provide some further insight into these numbers. Wilson has generally been very lucky at his fumbles not leading to turnovers. His rate is only bested by Bridgewater and Tyrod at 25%, though they only have 32 fumbles combined in their careers.

Here is the full table for all 98 quarterbacks since 1991 (regular season only):

QBFumTbl

On average these quarterbacks lost 41.6% of their fumbles, so recovery has been better than a 50/50 proposition for most.

Quarterbacks: Most Fourth-Quarter Comebacks and Game-Winning Drives by NFL Team

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

Lost even on me in Sunday afternoon’s chaos was the fact that Tony Romo moved past Roger Staubach for the most game-winning drives in Dallas Cowboys history. He has 24 now. Last season Romo took the lead in fourth-quarter comeback wins (21 now) in Cowboys history as well.

That’s newsworthy by itself, but what about the other 31 NFL teams? Who are their all-time leaders in fourth-quarter comeback wins and game-winning drives? I compiled the table, which will be added to the NFL STAT TABLES section I plan to do much more with in the near future.

TM4QCGWD

As usual, playoffs are included. How typical of the Jets to feature three different quarterbacks here. Not much else surprised me, but I’ve been working with this data for years so that’s to be expected. Let’s just say the bar is really low in Tampa Bay, but I doubt Mike Glennon will ever step his big ass over it.

Matt Ryan needs two more 4QC wins to move past Bartkowski for the outright Atlanta lead. He would be the 9th active quarterback to hold the lead in 4QC and GWD for his team, which just goes to show how impressive this current crop of quarterbacks really is.

All nine of the active leaders have been with their team since at least 2009. That’s when Jay Cutler was traded to Chicago and Matthew Stafford was the No. 1 pick in the draft.  If we think about that season some more, Marc Bulger (STL), Jake Delhomme (CAR), Donovan McNabb (PHI) and David Garrard (JAC) were still on their teams, so that’s 13 quarterbacks who went on to become their team’s GWD leader all active in 2009. Peyton Manning (IND) and Matt Schaub (HOU) were still on their teams too, so that’s 15. Brett Favre was in Minnesota, but he was already Green Bay’s all-time leader, so that kind of makes it 16, which is half the league.

So in 2009, there were 16 active starting quarterbacks who have eventually led an NFL franchise in career game-winning drives.

Some people disagree that this is a really special era of quarterbacks, but I keep finding evidence to support that it is. When teams like Cleveland, Oakland, Tampa Bay and St. Louis keep going through quarterbacks, I gain more respect for the players who keep starting year after year.

Even Flacco and Eli.

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