Tag: Ravens

2019 NFL Divisional Round Preview

~ Scott ~ 3 Comments

The NFL’s best weekend is a little sweeter this year. Thanks in large part to Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Titans these last two weeks, we don’t have to talk about the Patriots in the divisional round of the playoffs. This hasn’t happened in a decade, and I said when they were 8-0 that this was not a legitimately great Patriots team. So let’s enjoy it by not giving them any more time than they deserve. The AFC is moving forward with two better teams in Baltimore and Kansas City, but both must avoid an upset as two-score favorites this week if we’re going to get that desired title game next Sunday. I don’t think the Titans and Texans will go away easily.

The Wild Card weekend was excellent with four close, low-scoring games. Every game was decided by 3-8 points and no team scored 21 points in regulation. None of the offenses performed at a high level, which had a lot to do with the games being close, but it was good for dramatic reasons.

You should be counting on more points and at least one multi-score win this week. Seahawks-Packers is the easy choice for the close game lock, and it is the only game with a spread under 7.0 this week. However, we know the greatness of this round is from the road team upsets. They are not easy to come by either. Since 1970, the home team is 141-55 (.719) in the divisional round and that hasn’t tailed off in recent years. In fact, since the new CBA in 2011 the home team is 25-7 (.781) in the divisional round. Since 2002, home teams favored by at least 9 points in the divisional round are 9-5 straight up and 6-8 against the spread. There hasn’t been an upset loss of this magnitude since the 2012 Ravens (at Denver) and 2010 Jets (at Patriots).

Even though every home team won this round last year that is still a pretty rare feat. The only other times it happened in the current playoff format were 2015, 2004 and 2002.

Vikings at 49ers (-7)

You probably could have simulated the season 10 million times in August and not once would you have ended up with this as your #6 at #1 matchup in the NFC. But here we are and I actually believe the Vikings are a very formidable foe. The team is loaded with talent, but the offense just happened to play its worst against Green Bay in two important games this year. Kirk Cousins showed last week he can lead a clutch drive to beat a good team on the road, finishing off the Saints in overtime.

The 49ers don’t have much of a track record to point to, but they are 13-3 this year with three losses on the final play of the game. They were a missed field goal in OT against Seattle and a single defensive stop (inches on one snap) from beating the Falcons to win 15 games, only losing in Baltimore on a last-second field goal. The only times they didn’t score 20 points this year were in very wet conditions in Washington and Baltimore. It’s been a great Year 3 so far for Kyle Shanahan.

For me this game comes down to the Minnesota offensive line. Can they hold up on the road against a front seven that has slipped in the second half of the season? If Dalvin Cook has holes to run through, he and Alexander Mattison could have a nice day together. The 49ers run defense is nothing special (11th in DVOA, 23rd in yards per carry). Cook looked ready to Derrick Henry his way through the Saints defense until they got to him more in the second half. With the passing offense, Cousins clearly has the weapons as Adam Thielen stepped up with big catches and Kyle Rudolph caught the game winner in OT. Stefon Diggs was hardly involved, but that’s just another great option for this offense to go to this week. The 49ers allowed the fewest passing yards in the league this year, including 10 games where the opponent had fewer than 200 net passing yards (five games of no more than 100 yards). That’s very impressive, but the Vikings aren’t looking to go pass-happy in any game this year. Cousins was 11-2 (only losses to Green Bay) when he didn’t go above 35 pass attempts this season. They just want to run Cook and take advantage of play-action as much as they can.

The Saints had greater pass pressure metrics than the 49ers defense finished the year with. Cousins took a couple sacks and five QB hits in New Orleans, but overall the protection held up enough. The 49ers were destroying quarterbacks earlier this season, but that has really eased up. Rookie Nick Bosa had 7 sacks and 13 hits thru Week 8, but in the last nine games he’s only had 2 sacks and 12 hits. Through 11 games, the 49ers sacked 10 of their opposing quarterbacks at least three times. They haven’t done so since Week 12 and they have four sacks total in the last five games. Since Week 9, the 49ers have allowed at least 20 points in every game except for the big Packers win (37-8). Even though the Packers own the Vikings this year, the transitive property does not apply in the NFL, so don’t expect the 49ers to just own the Vikings too. San Francisco’s defense clearly peaked early as some injuries have set in too.

On the other side of the ball, the San Francisco offense is pretty legit. They were fifth in points per drive and 10th in yards per drive. It helps to be second in starting field position, but they still moved the ball well throughout the season. Jimmy Garoppolo started a bit shaky in the first half of the season when he was only averaging 212.7 passing yards per game with nearly an equal TD:INT ratio. Ever since the Arizona game in Week 9 he’s up to 276.6 yards per game with 18 TD, 6 INT, 107.6 PR, and a strong 8.67 YPA. He’s been asked to do more and he’s delivered so far. You know to expect a good running game from a Shanahan offense and they certainly have had that. The trade for Emmanuel Sanders was smart and the draft pick of Deebo Samuel was good. It may not be the flashiest receiving corps in the NFL, but it’s more than enough to win a Super Bowl when you factor in the run and George Kittle at tight end.

If there’s an area of concern I would say the red zone could be rough, especially on Garoppolo as a passer. Kittle is awesome, the best TE in this post-Gronk NFL, but he’s not much of a receiving threat in the red zone. He only has 12 TD catches in his career (on 216 catches) and only three this season came within 30 yards of the end zone. That’s just not something they do, which is why the 49ers led the league with 23 rushing touchdowns. But make no mistake about it — the 49ers are a middling red zone offense while the Vikings are No. 2 in most red zone defense metrics. The Vikings were also one of the best defenses at creating takeaways and were the only defense to get multiple turnovers from the Saints in 2019. I mentioned Danielle Hunter last week as a top pass-rusher this year. He and Everson Griffen delivered in New Orleans and will have to do so again here. Garoppolo has fumbled 10 times (equal to Cousins’ total) with five lost this year.

Something to keep in mind is that the Vikings are quite poor at coming from behind in the fourth quarter. Garoppolo is 7-3 (.700) at 4QC opportunities in his career compared to 8-25-2 (.257) for Cousins. Minnesota’s only 4QC win in the last two seasons was against Denver this season. Garoppolo (50%) and Cousins (48%) were the top two quarterbacks in 2019 at converting third-down passes into first downs.

I almost want to pick the Vikings to pull off another upset here, but I just picked the 49ers last week to reach the Super Bowl. Plus it’s January and we’re talking about the Minnesota Vikings having everything go their way in two straight playoff games. That just doesn’t compute for me, but this should be a pretty good game.

Final: 49ers 26, Vikings 23

 

Titans at Ravens (-9.5)

This was a short-lived AFC rivalry after the Browns moved to Baltimore and became the Ravens while the Oilers moved to Tennessee and changed their name to the Titans. The Ravens knocked the No. 1 seeded Titans out of the playoffs in 2000 and 2008. Those were potential Super Bowl years for Tennessee, and there really hasn’t been that type of excitement about this team ever since that day a rookie coach named John Harbaugh took his Baltimore team into that building and won.

Now the Titans can return the favor to the top-seeded Ravens, who are coming off a bye week and a Week 17 win where they rested key starters, including likely MVP QB Lamar Jackson. That means 20 days will have passed since Jackson played a game, and it’s a time in which he reportedly fought off the flu too. When your QB is such a unique player, a 1,200-yard rusher and not a high-volume passer, maybe rest is more important than any concern for rust. We saw in the past how precision-passing offenses like the 2005 Colts and 2011 Packers were hurt by giving their offense too much rest in addition to the bye week, but Baltimore is the most prolific rushing offense in NFL history (3,296 yards). No one has held the Ravens under 118 rushing yards this year and they’re the only offense in NFL history to rush for at least 170 yards in all eight home games. Baltimore hasn’t trailed in the fourth quarter since Week 5, a comeback win in Pittsburgh. The 2019 Ravens are the 11th team in NFL history to score at least 20 points in all 16 games of a season.

Still, I think Tennessee’s best shot at another upset is a fast start and some rust (or regression) from the Ravens. This is pretty hard when Baltimore leads the NFL in first-quarter scoring (128 points) and has allowed the fewest first-quarter points (31). I’m not trying to anger Tennessee fans, but the fact is your defense is not that great, and the Ravens have the most efficient offense in the league this year. It’s historic really as they averaged over 200 yards per game in passing and rushing. You need some help from the offense (unforced errors & mistakes) to slow them down. Jackson has improved his accuracy this year, but there are still times where the ball comes out a little high and one of his big tight ends needs to make a great catch. You hope he has a few of those bad throws on high-leverage third downs, or maybe a fourth down that the Ravens are very willing to go for this year. The Ravens also had the second-lowest rate of dropped passes in the league this year. Maybe this receiving corps, which is basically a rookie (Marquise Brown), a retread (Willie Snead) and three tight ends (Mark Andrews has been exceptional) have some yips on Saturday night and drop important passes. Jackson is hard to sack and the Baltimore line does a great job of protection and the defense always has to be cautious of the running attack.

The Ravens just offer a different challenge that NFL teams really aren’t used to competing against. That’s why I think it’s crucial for Ryan Tannehill to have a fast start and get the Titans ahead early to hopefully get the Ravens out of their element and play from behind like the Chargers did to a rookie Jackson in the playoffs last year. Then Derrick Henry can take the game over in the second half and kill the clock, but hopefully it will lead to more points this time. Just 14 points won’t win like it would have in New England last week. There’s no way Tannehill can get by without throwing for over 100 yards again. I wasn’t too encouraged by how he played in the biggest game of his career last week, but at least he made a couple key throws on third down. He’ll have to continue that here and get rookie A.J. Brown involved, which he didn’t last week. You don’t want to get into a big shootout with the Ravens, but I think the Titans have an explosive offense to put up the points necessary to grind out a win.

This tweet from ESPN’s Seth Walder caught my eye:

I thought the Patriots last week would use Cover Zero blitzes to force Tannehill into mistakes since he has taken a very high rate of sacks this year. However, he threw 15 passes in the whole game so it wasn’t that kind of night. He did take one sack and fumbled twice, but the Patriots were unable to recover either. Baltimore will look to force him into more mistakes in what should be a much higher volume passing game this time. I’m not sure it means anything this week, but the Titans have faced Baltimore in each of the last two seasons and Henry finished those games with a pathetic 15 carries for 47 yards (combined two games). That also can’t happen again. That was the day Mariota took 11 sacks for Tennessee. Tannehill’s not that bad thankfully.

We don’t think of the 2019 Ravens as a classic Baltimore defense, perhaps because there’s no Ray Lewis or Ed Reed or Terrell Suggs on the unit this year. They also struggled early in the season after allowing huge numbers in Kansas City (33 points and 503 yards) and to the Browns (40 points and 530 yards). That gave us an early impression that things weren’t good this year. However, in the other 14 games this year the Ravens never allowed more than 23 points or 349 yards. Only the 2010 Steelers (15 games) and 2011 Steelers (14 games) can say they’ve done that at least 14 times in a season this decade. Matt Judon emerged as their new star pass-rusher and the trade for corner Marcus Peters in Week 7 proved to be a steal as he made the All-Pro team thanks to his ball-hawking abilities. So the Ravens are in this familiar spot of having the best defense left in the AFC playoffs, but now they have the best offense to boot as well.

Not to trigger fans of the 2000 Titans, but it could be a bad thing if this game comes down to field goals. Justin Tucker is arguably the best kicker to ever do it, while the Titans were just 8-of-18 on field goals this year. Their current kicker, Greg Joseph, hasn’t even attempted a field goal in 2019. He missed three field goals and four extra points for the 2018 Browns.

That’s why the red zone matchup could be so huge in this one. Baltimore’s passing game was the best in the league in the red zone. Jackson’s 24 red zone touchdown passes trail only Russell Wilson (25), but he had 29 fewer pass attempts in the red zone than Wilson. That’s a lot different than the matchup with Tom Brady last week. Brady had 13 TD on a league-high 91 red zone passes in 2019. The only player coming close to Jackson’s absurd red zone TD% of 40% is Tannehill (37.8%).The Titans have been absolutely bonkers in the red zone with Tannehill since Week 7. Including the playoff game, they are 28-of-32 (87.5%) at scoring touchdowns in the red zone after starting 8-of-15 (53.3%) with Marcus Mariota. They are going to need to continue that hot streak and realize that field goals aren’t going to beat the best offense in the league on the road (unless it’s the final play of the game of course).

We’ve seen bigger upsets in NFL history before, but I just don’t like the Titans enough to pick them here. Baltimore is the better team in all three units, the home team, and the rested team. It would be cool to see another sixth seed make a run at things here, but the Ravens are legitimately great this season.

Final: Ravens 30, Titans 20

 

Texans at Chiefs (-9.5)

We usually have some rematches from the regular season to talk about in the playoffs, but this is only the second one through two rounds this year. The other one was last week when the Seahawks beat the Eagles by the same score (17-9) again. That would be very disappointing for the Chiefs, a two-score favorite, since Houston won 31-24 in Arrowhead in Week 6.

So what happened that day and why will things be different this time?

In Week 6, the Chiefs were coming off a rough 19-13 loss to the Colts, the first game where Patrick Mahomes didn’t lead the team to at least 26 points. Mahomes was injured a couple of times in that game and was missing left tackle Eric Fisher and Sammy Watkins for this Houston matchup. It started off really well when Mahomes notably threw for 116 yards on the opening drive thanks to some penalties. The Chiefs led 17-3 and seemed like they were going to roll over Houston, but the Texans came back. Mahomes got fooled on a second quarter interception when he thought the official was going to throw a flag on a free play, and he later lost a fumble that Deshaun Watson turned into a touchdown before halftime for a 23-17 lead. Watson engineered a 12-play, 93-yard drive in the fourth quarter — a drive that never featured a third down — to put the Texans ahead 31-24. The Chiefs had a very quick three-and-out with an odd call of a run on 2nd-and-14, and the Texans were able to run out the final 5:03 without giving Mahomes the ball back. Carlos Hyde was effective with 116 rushing yards, and Watson’s day could have been even bigger without some dropped passes. Houston racked up 35 first downs in that game, the most by any NFL road team since the Patriots had 36 first downs in their overtime win in Kansas City in the 2018 AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs were unable to gain 20 yards on any play after the opening drive.

That was arguably the low point of the season for the Chiefs on defense, but the good news is the offense is healthier now, especially in regards to Mahomes. They also have their leading sack defender back in Chris Jones, who missed that Week 6 game. The Texans got J.J. Watt back last week and he played well against Buffalo. The Texans didn’t have Kenny Stills in Week 6, but they’re looking to have their full wideout trio of DeAndre Hopkins, Stills and Will Fuller available for this one.

You expect the Chiefs to play better this time, but the spread rising from Chiefs -3.5 in Week 6 to Chiefs -9.5 given that last matchup is still a bit puzzling. Kansas City has cut down on penalties and turnovers since Week 6, but those mistakes and bad health have led the offense to take a step back from 2018’s historic level.

The injuries, most notably the dislocated kneecap that cost him nearly three full games, did take away from what was still an exceptional season for Mahomes. He actually had more touchdown passes of 40-plus yards (9) this year than he had in 2018 (7) despite throwing 24 fewer touchdowns overall. The big plays are still there in an offense built for speed, but in recent weeks we have seen a more pedestrian Mahomes. Since Week 11, Mahomes is at 7.28 yards per attempt with 8 touchdowns to 4 interceptions and a 92.0 passer rating. That’s fine for what the Chiefs needed to go 6-0 in those games, but Mahomes’ 16-game pace over this span is just 3,747 yards and 21 touchdown passes. That’s far from the record-setting dominance he showed us through his first 25 starts.

Mahomes has been overshadowed the last six games by his defense, which prompts the “watch out now that Mahomes has a defense!” angle. Yes, it would be scary to give this quarterback a legitimately great defense, but are we sure that’s the case? It was just in Week 10 when this defense was embarrassed by Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee, prompting us to take the Titans more seriously. I’m always leery of these “QB has [help]!” claims when we know the larger sample size usually points to that not being the case.

As always, the first thing to do is look at the schedule. Who have the Chiefs played in the last six weeks? That would be the Chargers twice. Philip Rivers had a turnover-heavy, washed-up type of season. Then there was Oakland and Derek Carr, who has a very poor history against the Chiefs. The only games he had this year with multiple interceptions were against the Chiefs, and he also had two picks in a 35-3 loss to the Chiefs in Week 17 last year. Throw in a 23-3 win over rookie Drew Lock and the Broncos in a snow game and that’s already four games out of six against division rivals they’re familiar with. The other two games were at New England and Chicago, where the quarterback play was close to equal for the first time in many years with Tom Brady having his worst season at 42 and Mitchell Trubisky being Mitchell Trubisky.

So color me unimpressed with this run. I think the Chiefs this postseason are more likely to look like the defense that had a few good moments mixed with tough times against the Packers, Vikings, Texans, Titans, Ravens and Lions (with Matthew Stafford). You know, better offensive competition.

If you look at the seven games where the Chiefs have positive EPA on defense on Pro Football Reference, five of the games are from Weeks 11-17. But you’ll also notice that the other two games were the early meetings against Denver (Week 7) and Oakland (Week 2). So those were just offenses the defense owned this season. By the same measure of EPA, the Chiefs had three games where they were worse than -17 EPA and those were against the Texans, Ravens and Packers so that could be interesting if that ends up being their next three opponents on a Super Bowl path.

Reid getting less out of the offense and more out of the defense is probably a net positive for this playoff run, but Mahomes is going to have to be stellar at some point here. If it’s not this week, then it will have to come in Baltimore most likely. Remember, Mahomes is getting the worst defense in the playoffs this week in Houston. He should play very well on Sunday, but the standards for his “very well” game are currently in flux.

The last thing I want to talk about is arguably the most important part in this game: Deshaun Watson. His A-level plays are just as good as Mahomes and Jackson, whether it’s the incredible runs or deep throws down the field. However, he does take too many sacks at times and we just haven’t seen him put together that consistent, MVP-worthy season yet like Mahomes (2018) and Jackson (2019) have. Of course, those quarterbacks have better support systems than Watson, who is stuck with Bill O’Brien and a franchise that doesn’t really have a GM. Mahomes has Andy Reid’s brain, and we know from Reid’s coaching tree that he puts together great staffs. Jackson has Harbaugh and Greg Roman, and the Ravens are on the forefront of analytics right now. Watson is basically pulling the weight in Houston himself, which is how the Texans end up falling behind 16-0 at home to lowly Buffalo in the Wild Card round, but also how they pull out a 22-19 win in overtime behind him.

Watson stands to be The Third Man in the AFC as Mahomes and Jackson battle for conference superiority in this new decade where the Patriots should finally be old news. Winning this game and breaking up the first of several expected AFC title games between Mahomes and Jackson would be huge for him, but the odds clearly aren’t in his favor Sunday.

But make no mistake about it — Watson is a gamer and the main reason Chiefs fans have to feel at least a little nervous about this one. If there’s someone who can match Mahomes, who isn’t coming in hot, score for score on that cursed playoff ground called Arrowhead, it is Watson.

Final: Chiefs 31, Texans 23

 

Seahawks at Packers (-4)

I have about 800 words left to keep this preview under 5,000, but how many does one really need for this game? Seattle’s offense is a little better than Green Bay’s, though the Packers have an edge in versatility with their top back (Aaron Jones) still healthy while the Seahawks won with 19 rushing yards from backs in Philadelphia last week. Green Bay’s play-action passing game remains broken this year and Rodgers still throws too many passes away and takes too many sacks he shouldn’t. Both teams are mediocre at best on defense and special teams. Both teams are in the running for the worst team to ever have the nice records (13-3 and 11-5) they have.

It would be shocking if we don’t see Russell Wilson in the fourth quarter of a lower scoring game trying to lead a game-winning drive. Does he get sacked in the arms of Za’Darius Smith, or does he make Green Bay blow its first fourth-quarter lead of 2019? From my 2019 close game summary, the Packers (NFL-high eight holds) and Seahawks (six holds including last week in Philly) have not blown any fourth-quarter leads this year, though Seattle did twice get lucky on missed field goals. The Packers are 10-1 in close games and haven’t lost one since Week 4 (Eagles). They have three more close wins than the next closest team. They also struggled like hell to sweep the 3-12-1 Lions this year, though I would be remiss to not mention Seattle’s 1-point win at home over a Cincinnati team that is picking first in the draft. Like I said, these teams are not that great; shells of the dominant teams they fielded in that classic 2014 NFC Championship Game.

Seattle just needs to survive the first quarter. That’s when Rodgers has by far been at his best in 2019 and Seattle has allowed more first-quarter points than all but five teams. The Packers rank third in first-quarter scoring, but are 27th in the second quarter, ninth in the third quarter and 26th in the fourth quarter. Much of Green Bay’s season has been about jumping out to an early lead, scoring 21-31 points in the game, and hanging on for the victory. That’s fine against most of the NFL, but Wilson is adept at leading comebacks.

However, Wilson has a very checkered past against the Packers: 4-3 record, 10 TD, 10 INT, 74.0 passer rating and 6.63 YPA. He’s had games with 4 and 5 INT against them, and the first meeting was the Fail Mary in 2012. His most complete game against Green Bay was probably last year’s win at home against Mike Pettine’s defense, but the Packers are better on that side of the ball in 2019.

After going through 2019 with next to zero pass rush, the Seahawks picked up 7 sacks and 9 QB hits in Philadelphia last week. That’s unlikely to repeat itself, but as the season has shown, Rodgers will take some sacks and leave teams hanging around late. The pressure will be on Wilson to deliver and for at least one more week I’m counting on him to deliver. Should Minnesota pull off the upset in San Francisco on Saturday, this game takes on even greater importance for the Packers because of how they have dominated that division matchup this year. The chances of going to the Super Bowl could go up before Green Bay even takes the field last this weekend.

If things go the other way, then we’ll just bet like crazy against the Packers in San Francisco next week.

Final: Seahawks 23, Packers 20

NFL Week 17 Predictions: Making History Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I would say this regular season has gone quickly, but it feels like eons ago when Antonio Brown caught a touchdown for the Patriots down in Miami. Things have changed a lot since and we only have four of the 12 playoff seeds locked up going into this final Sunday. A whopping four teams can still win the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

With some teams probably mailing in this last game, I’d save my money and look to bet big on the playoffs. Here are some musings on the history we could see happen on Sunday.

Top-Heavy Season

It’s been a season of the haves and the have nots. The AFC could have just five teams with a winning record if the Steelers (8-7) and Titans (8-7) don’t beat Baltimore and Houston teams that should be resting key players. The same thing can happen in the NFC if the Eagles (8-7) and Rams (8-7) don’t win. At best we’ll have 14 teams with a winning record, the fewest since 2015 (13). You’d have to go back to top-heavy 2011 to find a season with 12 winning teams.

Jameis Winston: 30 for 30

Jameis Winston can make history by having the first season in NFL history with 30 TD passes and 30 interceptions. He has 31 TD and 28 INT going into tomorrow and should surpass 5,000 passing yards to lead the league. If anyone could do it, it’s Jameis. He should be up to 29 after the first drive. Then it’s just a matter of chasing infamy.

Three Stooges Alert

The Buffalo Bills (10-5) are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC and have little reason to go full throttle against the Jets. However, if they win this game and finish 11-5, it will trigger a little history for the Three Stooges of the AFC East. It’ll be the first time since realignment in 2002 that the Patriots had a division rival win 11 games without their help. The 2008 Dolphins finished 11-5, but one of those wins was against the Patriots (Wildcat game). The 2010 Jets finished 11-5, but one of those wins was against the Patriots. The Bills could get to 11-5 even after getting swept by the Patriots.

We’ll see if the Bills can come anywhere close to the 2010 Jets’ playoff run. The Jets haven’t returned to the playoffs since.

CLE/JAX: Don’t Promote from Within

It’s possible Freddie Kitchens (Browns) and Doug Marrone (Jaguars) could coach their last game for their team on Sunday. It reminds me of this tweet about promoting an interim coach or someone already on the staff to head coach. It’s usually a bad idea.

Patriots Defense

As expected, New England’s historic defense slowed down once the schedule put some good QBs/offenses on the field. But few teams have had much success against them this year. The Patriots go into the final game allowing 198 points on the season. Their most dominant game of the year was the 43-0 win in Miami in Week 2. If they can pitch a shutout again, they’ll become just the second team since 2001 to allow fewer than 200 points in a season. The 2002 Buccaneers allowed 196 points. If they just allow a field goal they’ll be tied with the 2006 Ravens (201) for the second fewest allowed.

As long as the Patriots don’t allow 25 points at home to Ryan Fitzpatrick, they’ll have the best scoring defense of any team since 2007.

Saints Eyeing 75/150

Michael Thomas already broke Marvin Harrison’s record of 143 catches in a season with 145. He just needs five to become the first player with 150 catches in a season. Drew Brees can break the single-season completion record for the third year in a row, becoming the first player to exceed 75% (he’s at 75.3%).

Golladay: The Last Hope?

It’s been a weird fantasy season with a lot of big names disappointing. Passing touchdowns are down a little, so it’s not that surprising to see receiving touchdowns down as well for the leading receivers.

Detroit’s Kenny Golladay leads the NFL with 11 touchdown catches. If that number holds through Sunday, it’ll be the first non-strike season in the NFL since 1975 that no one caught more than 11.

Steelers at Ravens: Not Meaningless

A bit more than pride is on the line for the Steelers and Ravens despite Baltimore resting key starters, including likely MVP winner Lamar Jackson. The Steelers need a win and help to make the playoffs. They also need to not lose by more than a field goal to extend their streak of .500 seasons with a positive scoring differential to 16 years. That would tie for the third-longest streak in NFL history. Only the 1965-1983 Cowboys (19 years) and 2001-2019 Patriots (19 years) have longer streaks.

The Ravens also need just 93 rushing yards to break the single-season record held by the 1978 Patriots (3,165). That should be easy with a running QB (Robert Griffin) and a gameplan that should try to run the clock faster than anything. It’s not like the Ravens need this win. The 1948 49ers actually rushed for 3,653 yards in 14 games, but that’s not the official record because the AAFC doesn’t count.

49ers at Seahawks: Playoffs Start Early

Sunday Night Football has the pleasure of giving us 49ers-Seahawks to end the regular season. It was a wild overtime finish last time, won by Seattle. Both teams are in the playoffs regardless, but this is still a huge game since a win would give the 49ers the No. 1 seed and next week off. Lose and they’re the No. 5 seed with Seattle likely sliding into No. 3. If you think the 49ers are the team of destiny this year, then they really need to come through and win this one in a building they haven’t won in since Russell Wilson was drafted (0-8).

Wilson, starting with that SF game, has not been as sharp over the last six games. Seattle has dropped two of the last three games and actually have three losses by 14+ points this year. The 49ers are 3.5-point favorites on the road here.

Due to the 49ers shockingly losing to the Falcons a few weeks ago, this game is still important to the team even if they did make a better decision in the first matchup. Remember when the 49ers had a chance to run out the clock and take a tie with Seattle, but threw three incomplete passes and watched Wilson drive for the win? At the time I thought it could be a huge blow to their chances of getting the No. 1 seed:

Had the 49ers taken the tie, they likely would have the division already clinched. They still would have needed to win this one to get homefield advantage, but the division wouldn’t be up for grabs like it is now.

The Seahawks are looking for their 12th win despite outscoring their schedule by 12 points this year. It’s been a great year for Wilson and the 49ers have been declining on defense as injuries pile up, but I still think I’m going to go with San Francisco to pull it off and earn the No. 1 seed.

NFL Week 17 Predictions

This is not the slate I want to try finish over .500 for, but I have some decent faith in the Browns, Colts, Falcons and Rams ending their season on a high note. I can also see Drew Lock edging the Raiders by a FG at home in Denver. I think the Chiefs keep rolling with this defense through the Chargers.

2019Wk17

For next season I’m probably going to move to a model approach to make my picks instead of going from the gut.

2019Wk1-16

NFL Week 14 Predictions: The Best Week of the Year Edition

~ Scott

December 8 was always the date to circle since the NFL schedule came out in April. That was the big Chiefs-Patriots game in New England, but now that we’re here, it’s actually a much bigger weekend with four marquee games. Those two teams aren’t even the current No. 1 seed in the AFC. That’s Baltimore, which has its final big road test in Buffalo, a surprise 9-3 team that almost controls its own destiny for home-field advantage. We also could see the Saints inch closer to the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and we should get some clarity on an MVP race that is down to Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson.

It took a little pure dumb luck with the 49ers and Bills stepping up, but the NFL has one hell of a schedule planned tomorrow. It shouldn’t get as big as this again until the playoffs, but first those seeds could really shake up because of what happens on Sunday.

49ers at Saints (-2)

The 49ers come in as a 2-point underdog in a tough place to play, though the Saints haven’t been able to blow out anyone at home aside from Arizona. Don’t forget that stunning 26-9 loss to the Falcons as well. I think the 49ers showed a lot of quality play on the road in rainy Baltimore last week and will welcome the dome conditions in this one. It is a bit of a disadvantage to be on the road in the early slot on the East for the second week in a row, but teams are better at handling that these days with travel.

The main reason I like the 49ers to win is their physical defense. I think they can key in on Michael Thomas — a matchup with Richard Sherman would be fun — as the Saints don’t have another player with 500 receiving yards. They have the front seven talent to harass Drew Brees, who took 6 sacks in the Atlanta loss but only three the rest of the season. Also, the Saints are the first team in NFL history to have just 7 giveaways thru 12 games of a season. They’ve lost just one fumble all year. That screams regression and the 49ers are the type of defense to make them pay there (24 takeaways rank 4th this year).

The 49ers are also No. 2 in points scored and points allowed this season. This is a very good team and I think Jimmy Garoppolo will shine just enough with the running game always being a threat to pull off this road win. If you’re continuing to compare the 2019 49ers to the 2017 Eagles, then think of this as their road win over the 2017 Rams which helped the Eagles get the top seed.

Ravens at Bills (+6.5)

The Bills have seven wins against teams picking in the top 11 of the 2020 draft as of right now. This would be a huge step up in class to beat a Baltimore team that has entered historic territory. The Ravens average 45 yards per drive on offense, which would set a record for the modern era. They can still become the first NFL offense ever to average 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing per game. Lamar Jackson is the MVP front-runner and the consistent threat that Bills fans wish Josh Allen was right now. Allen has been playing better in recent weeks, but the Bills are definitely at a disadvantage with an offense that ranks just 16th in yards per drive and 21st in points per drive. The Baltimore defense is also picking things up and actually do better at forcing turnovers than the Bills.

The spread feels about right for this one, but if there is a game where Jackson is going to look mortal, it would be a road game against a solid defense. Yet even when he’s contained as a passer, he’s still a major threat as a rusher so it’s been really hard on defenses this year to figure this unique offense out. I think Baltimore delivers on the road and continues holding onto the No. 1 seed over New England.

But don’t lose sight that this is one of the biggest games in Buffalo in the last 20 years. They could really use a win like this.

Chiefs at Patriots (-3)

So much for the 43-40 and 37-31 offensive shootouts of last year. These teams aren’t playing great offensively and that shouldn’t surprise you with New England. The old QB is having one of his worst slumps ever, but it’s rarely mattered thanks to the defense being so strong. The surprise is that Patrick Mahomes has just turned in the worst 8 quarters of his career. Over the last two games, Mahomes has completed 55.7 percent of his passes at 5.85 YPA with just 2 TD and 1 INT. He didn’t even crack 200 yards in either game. Fortunately, his defense picked off Philip Rivers and Derek Carr enough for it to not matter as the Chiefs won both games (sound familiar?).

This is a bad time for Mahomes to be slumping with a road test against a veteran secondary and all-around difficult defense to pass against this year. If the big plays aren’t there like they were for Mahomes last year against NE, then this one could be another ugly offensive game. Keep in mind that despite those high scores last year, the Patriots twice did something no other team has.

In 29 career games with Mahomes, the Chiefs have been held under 10 points in the first half twice: 9 points at Patriots (lost 43-40), 0 points vs. Patriots (lost 37-31 OT).

Mahomes needs to stop fading away from the line on so many of his passes and find a rhythm early so that he can play a complete game against the Patriots and force Brady to actually be good. My thought is that after the ugly loss in Houston, Brady will be sharper at home — I’d be all in on Chiefs if this was in Arrowhead — and the running game that’s gotten going in recent weeks will be used effectively against a subpar Chiefs defense.

So it’s not quite the super important game for the AFC as we thought it would be, but you’d still rather win it than not. It’s just unfortunate that between the Mahomes injury and some of the sloppy play the team has showed this year, even a win in NE doesn’t mean Kansas City won’t have to come back and do it all over again in January in a 3/2 matchup.

Seahawks at Rams (+1)

Their first meeting on TNF was one of the best games this season, one that the Rams would have won had it not been for a missed field goal by Greg Zuerlein. I said this almost two months ago:

Missed field goals have been great to Seattle this year. The 49ers also missed one in overtime that would have won that game after Russell Wilson’s inexplicable interception. So had those two NFC West kickers connected, this would be the 8-4 Seahawks at the 8-4 Rams. But because of two swings of the leg, it’s the 10-2 Seahawks at the 7-5 Rams. Wilson is still in the MVP race despite cooling off, and there’s a lot of disappointment surrounding Sean McVay and Jared Goff right now. What a league.

But it has been a wildly inconsistent year for the Rams and Goff. He’s had a few brilliant games, including last week when he was over 320 passing yards at halftime. He’s also had some major stinkers as has the defense, led by DC Wade Phillips and Aaron Donald, that always seems to escape any criticism.

I said earlier this week that the 2019 Saints and 2019 Seahawks are two of the worst 10-2 teams ever because of their tiny point differentials. Seattle is just +36, the smallest scoring differential ever for a 10-2 team. I think if Lamar Jackson shines in Buffalo and Wilson struggles in this game (another prime time one), the MVP is all but locked up for Jackson. So that’s another layer to keep in mind.

The outcome of SF-NO will give us a better idea of how big this game is on Sunday night, but it’s a last gasp effort for the Rams either way. They have to win this game and they easily could if their star players play up to their potential. I’m not surprised the spread is damn near a pick ’em with how unpredictable the Rams have been and how close to the vest Seattle has been. In the end, you trust Wilson over Goff in crunch time, but as this season has shown, all it takes is one play sometimes to decide a game. I wouldn’t bet on this one like I would the other three big games on Sunday.

NFL Week 14 Predictions

I had the Cowboys on TNF, so there’s another trainwreck to talk about some other time.

2019Wk14

A quick note on PIT-ARI: this would definitely fit the classic Mike Tomlin letdown game on the road. The Cardinals are an interesting young team without a lot of tape that the Steelers are familiar with. I think it’s a game where either the Cardinals win outright, or Duck Hodges has a breakout game against a terrible pass defense. Obviously I went with the former because I think the Steelers lack the weapons to get the job done without JuJu available again. James Washington had his career game last week so I can’t see him repeating it, but I am glad to see the Steelers get back to throwing downfield to wide receivers. This one could be fun, though I’d much rather be watching KC-NE.

2019Wk1-13

NFL Week 13 Predictions: “Watt the Faulk?” Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

Earlier this week I wrote about Frank Gore’s HOF case. For the first time in seven years I may actually start to take this blog seriously and post more content besides Saturday game picks. We’ll see what happens, but I am looking into it.

There are some good games to talk about this week, but before that I wanted to share some thoughts about the NFL 100 All-Time Team.

Watt the Faulk, Boomers?

I thought the NFL’s 100 All-Time Team could lead to a disappointing show once I saw some of the position breakdowns. More RB (12) than QB (10) for one. The other concern was a media panel largely consisting of people who grew up watching players in the 60s and 70s, because people are proven to favor nostalgia and tradition when it comes to things like this. Would they give the players of today a fair shake?

Through 38 player choices at running back and the front seven, it doesn’t appear so. The only players who started their careers after the 1994 salary cap are Ray Lewis (1996) and Derrick Brooks (1995). It’s not that there have been many snubs, but there have been some glaring ones so far.

I compiled my own list of the top 100 players of all time in August. I have yet to rank them together or post it anywhere, but I plan to soon. My list included 15 quarterbacks and seven running backs as opposed to the NFL’s breakdown of 10 QB and 12 RB. Of course, my sixth and seventh running backs just happened to be LaDainian Tomlinson and Marshall Faulk. Neither managed to make the cut for the NFL 100 (while the likes of Dutch Clark, Marion Motley and Gale Sayers did), so that was already a bad first impression for me.

Then the front seven came out last night with 26 players. My list had 30 players (9 DE, 9 DT, 12 LB). I probably could have showed more love for the older eras, but I didn’t see a reason to include the likes of Doug Atkins, Bill Hewitt, or Lee Roy Selmon.

The biggest snubs here had to be J.J. Watt and Derrick Thomas. Unlike the RBs, it’s not so much they picked the wrong players or too many this time, but they just didn’t pick enough. They shouldn’t have had 12 RBs, period. That would have freed up spots for Watt and Thomas. I also saw mention of Von Miller on Twitter. He didn’t make my list, but he’s close to it.

This really goes back to the problem of people not able to evaluate a player’s career while he is still active. I can understand struggling with Aaron Donald, who I had on my list already, but that should not be the case with J.J. Watt. While injuries have clearly stripped him of all-time greatest discussion, just look at what he has accomplished when healthy. In six full seasons, he’s been named first-team All-Pro five times and Defensive Player of the Year three times. Most guys can play 10-15 years and never sniff those achievements. He’s had multiple 20-sack seasons and was ridiculously dominant at his peak. That’s the kind of player you need to put on such a list, but they didn’t, and the live reaction show afterwards just saw guys (from the 80s/90s) stand up for their old teammates and personal favorites. Watt wasn’t even mentioned in the snubs segment.

By the time the series is over, I’m sure there will be some support that they did enough justice for the last 25 years of football. They’ll likely include Tony Gonzalez and Rob Gronkowski at tight end, and quarterback will have Peyton Manning and Tom Brady (I bet you they snub Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers though). Ed Reed should show up at safety. I’m not sure they’ll do Joe Thomas at OT or Darrelle Revis at CB, but Adam Vinatieri could end up being the kicker. At WR, I’m not sure if they really have to do anything more modern than Randy Moss, but Larry Fitzgerald absolutely has an argument and I even have two other younger players than him on my list.

But so far there does seem to be a serious misjudgment of the worth of modern players, and an overvaluing of players from older eras where the job just wasn’t nearly as year-round or professional as it is today. Watching Bill Belichick analyze some 1930s-40s film with “You can see him block here” and thinking he’d take that player over Watt or Faulk, guys he had to develop gameplans to stop, is just comical, a farce.

Onto the games…

Browns at Steelers (+2.5)

Hopefully there won’t be a fight this time, but I can see why the NFL wants to bury this one on the schedule. I also wouldn’t be surprised if part of Mason Rudolph’s quick benching last week was to keep him out of this game in case the Browns look to retaliate. Sure, Rudolph was playing terrible football again, but that was a quick hook at halftime in a 7-3 game where he had one turnover on a tipped ball in the red zone. Anyways, I think the Steelers trust Devlin Hodges more and he doesn’t appear afraid to throw deep like Rudolph does. Of course Hodges could be terrible too in this game without JuJu Smith-Schuster available, but I felt like the Steelers defense contained Cleveland pretty well last meeting outside of giving up two big plays. This is an important game for both teams and I like the Steelers at home underdogs in this one.

Or maybe I just can’t wrap my mind around the thought of Cleveland sweeping Pittsburgh.

Titans at Colts (-1)

The Colts have Tennessee’s number for sure. Curious to see if Ryan Tannehill’s hot hand can keep up on the road in what is suddenly a big game for both teams. The Colts don’t have T.Y. Hilton available and Jacoby Brissett has been struggling. I think Tennessee is playing better right now, but like PIT-CLE, it’s hard for me to go against the history of one team owning the other for so long.

Raiders at Chiefs (-10.5)

Kansas City can gain some real breathing room in the division with a win here. The spread is big, but Oakland could have a chance here if the Chiefs continue their 2019 ways of making mistakes. I still feel like the offense can be the best in the league, but there are just too many mistakes this year. Penalties that kill drives, bad throws to open receivers, fumbles in scoring territory, not being aggressive enough on fourth down, weird run calls on 2nd-and-long. Last time out was also probably the worst game of Mahomes’ NFL career. In Week 2, he may have had the best quarter of his career in Oakland when he threw for almost 300 yards and 4 TD in the second quarter. But keep in mind the Chiefs didn’t score a point in any other quarter that day. That’s why I think Oakland has a chance in this one if Derek Carr brings his A game.

Patriots at Texans (+3.5)

I’m just going to leave this one here:

Vikings at Seahawks (-3)

This is one where I’ll hedge: Vikings ATS, Seahawks ML. Seattle has been winning a ton of close games this year. The Vikings have a better overall team, but I want to see Cousins in attack mode on the road. He was poor in a loss on MNF in Seattle last year. Hopefully this game will be better than that one.

GOTW: 49ers at Ravens (-6)

Super Bowl preview? It’s pretty amazing to see a 10-1 team as a 6-point underdog, but the Ravens have gone from having a solid season to being historically great since the bye week. The Ravens have scored at least 23 points in every game this season, joining elite company:

We’ve already seen Lamar Jackson and the offense rip through the Patriots this year. Now they get the NFC’s best defense. The 49ers are the first defense since the 2000 Titans to hold five teams to 100 net passing yards. Even if Jackson struggles to pass for yards, he’s still a very effective runner and the Ravens are at home with a defense that has been getting better every week. I like them to keep rolling in this one with their unique attack and making Jimmy Garoppolo turn the ball over, but getting a great game here would be ideal.

Now you’ll have to excuse me as I try to figure out how the Steelers, with no offense, held 4Q leads against both the 49ers and Ravens this year.

NFL Week 13 Predictions

I figured some regression was coming after an 11-3 ATS week. Thanksgiving picks didn’t go too well, but we’ll see.

2019Wk13

It sounds like Drew Lock will be at QB for the Broncos this week. That was inevitable, but I’ll give the Chargers, who get Derwin James back, the benefit of the doubt here. I know, sweet regression here we come.

2019Wk1-12

NFL Week 9 Predictions: QB Tiers Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

This week I posted an update to the “QB Tiers in My Eyes” which isn’t necessarily a ranking of the QBs in the league, but the groupings in which I view them right now with a big emphasis on track records.

qbtiers

I just wanted to include 32 entries, but you could easily put Eli Manning in the “So Long, Farewell” section with Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton. You could also create a “Tall, White, Named Allen” tier for Josh, Kyle and Brandon if you want. I’m not sure where the league keeps finding these guys but three of them are starting this weekend. I really couldn’t tell you anything about Brandon Allen, so good job, John Elway. Dwayne Haskins also seems to be taking over in Washington, so you could add him to the rookie tier (I made this on Wednesday).

My biggest takeaway from this is that people need to chill with lumping in everyone as great or terrible. That’s why the “Not Great, Not Terrible” tier is the biggest with 10 QBs. These are all guys fighting for that top 10 status, and in some weeks they absolutely look that part, and in other weeks they’re very disappointing to watch. They’re just not consistent enough to get into a better tier for now.

For the first ballot HOF locks, it’s not that I think those are the four best QBs in the league right now, but they are the most proven and deserve the most trust. “The Holy Trinity” is more in line with the best right now in 2019, but I also grouped them together because I see Mahomes, Wilson and Watson as possibly the top trio of QBs for the 2020s as well. Those are the guys you really want to watch on a weekly basis.

Matt Ryan is someone I generally would rank in a top two tier, but I don’t think he’s a lock for the HOF (certainly not a first ballot), and he didn’t fit in with the “trinity” vibe I was going for in the other group. But it’s not a coincidence that he’s at the very top of my next tier. The tiers are almost in order of best to worst, but not exactly.

If anything, the Carson Wentz fanboys need to just cool it and realize their guy isn’t showing us anything that a lot of other active QBs haven’t already achieved in this league. And don’t forget about Nick Foles, the Unicorn. I find him impossible to rank on something like this, but hopefully he’ll come back soon.

It Goes A-1, 2, 3

I just want to highlight the three games I’ll be watching at length on Sunday.

Texans at Jaguars (+1.5)

If they’re going to put a London game I wouldn’t mind watching on at 9:30 AM EST, then at least they’re doing it after I get an extra hour tonight for the end of daylight-saving time. I’m just not sure if the game will be worth watching until the second half anyway since the Texans tend to start slowly. I want to take this Houston team seriously, but with the injuries mounting up (J.J. Watt to IR again) it’s getting harder to buy this team as a real contender. It’s good for Deshaun Watson’s MVP candidacy, but they expect him to deliver so much on a weekly basis and I think the Jaguars are game enough to steal this one.

Colts at Steelers (+1)

The only thing more surprising than how rarely these AFC teams meet — this is the 10th time since 2002 — is how rarely they have their star quarterback in the lineup when they do. Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning (Indy days) only met three times, including that playoff game in 2005. They had a fourth meeting scheduled for 2011, but Manning missed that entire season for his neck surgeries. Roethlisberger vs. Andrew Luck has technically been scheduled five times, but only the first game (2014) actually had both in the lineup. It was quite the offensive show with Pittsburgh winning 51-34 with Ben having one of the best passing games in NFL history. In 2015, Luck was absent with a lacerated kidney. In 2016, Luck only missed one game, but it was the Thanksgiving one against Pittsburgh. Luck then missed all of 2017 while both quarterbacks are out of the picture this weekend with Luck’s retirement and Ben’s elbow surgery.

So that leaves Jacoby Brissett, Mason Rudolph, and a lot to be desired. This game also won’t have T.Y. Hilton and it doesn’t sound like James Conner will go for Pittsburgh. I will point out that all three of Pittsburgh’s wins were in prime time against really incompetent teams (CIN/LAC/MIA), but they also have three losses where they played SEA/SF/BAL very tough so it’s hard to figure this team out right now. Just like the Colts had a tougher time with the Broncos and Raiders at home as they did with the Chiefs and Texans in wins.

It could easily be another ugly game, which the Colts have won their fair share of already this season. The Steelers have been feasting on turnovers and could get after Brissett in this matchup. I think if Rudolph is trusted more to take shots to his wide receivers then the Steelers will be able to score enough for another win over Indy. They’re 7-2 against the Colts since 2002.

It’s just that most of these games weren’t what they were expected to be when the schedules were made.

Patriots at Ravens (+3.5)

Finally, the Patriots are done with their Division III schedule and the season can really begin. I’m inclined to believe any team who is 40 yards away from losing to Matt Barkley is not going to go 19-0, such as the Patriots were in Buffalo earlier this season. I actually think the Browns outplayed them the final three quarters last week, but Cleveland had that horrific three turnovers in a row stretch that no team could recover from in New England.

I don’t think the 2019 Patriots are the greatest team ever and any claims of that are going to look absurd by season’s end. I don’t even think it’s the first or second best 8-0 run by these Patriots this century. I posted that earlier this week on Twitter when you look at their 8-0 start in 2007 and their 8-0 finish in the 2010 regular season. The latter is always overlooked because of how that team imploded in the first playoff game against the Jets, a team they beat 45-3 in December.

NE8-0

The Patriots have fattened their record and gaudy defensive stats against a schedule likely to feature seven teams with a losing record by season’s end. Buffalo is the best team they played and Buffalo is statistically one of the worst 5-2 teams ever. You can’t throw the games away because they happened, but you also can’t tell me you can take the numbers at face value when the competition is this bad.

The Steelers are the only team the Patriots throttled in a way no one else has this year so far, but think about that matchup logically. First, we’ve seen New England’s offense do that to Pittsburgh’s defense at home for two decades now. Notice how the NE offense, which has been pretty mediocre this year, peaked in that Week 1 game. The difference was on offense, and that was the least talented offense the Steelers have fielded in arguably two decades. No Antonio Brown. No Le’Veon Bell. Ben Roethlisberger with an elbow injury, tossing a 40-yard bomb for a pick while down huge in the 4Q. Oh and way too much Donte Moncrief (released this weekend), who dropped a fourth down and dropped a touchdown in a game where the Steelers couldn’t call a good play in short-yardage situations. And despite all of that, NE’s defensive EPA was a season low +9.50 in that game according to Pro Football Reference.

Now enter Baltimore for what is low-key a No. 1 offense vs. No. 1 defense matchup. The Ravens are second to the Patriots in scoring, but that’s because of the surplus in return scores by NE this year. The Ravens are actually No. 1 in the league in yards per drive and points per drive (the Patriots are 20th and 14th in those categories). They’re also No. 1 in plays per drive and time of possession per drive, keyed by their No. 1 rushing offense led by Lamar Jackson, the quarterback.

This is far from a normal BAL-NE matchup, which has often gone well for head coach John Harbaugh in his career, at least relative to how the rest of the league plays New England. The Ravens won’t be intimidated by this team. Despite the fact that Baltimore hasn’t beaten NE since that 2012 sweep, the Ravens offer a different challenge from the rest of the NFL that could prove to be the toughest game the Patriots have this regular season. While the defense is not up to usual Baltimore standards — it’s mediocre at best at keeping the score down and even weaker at generation turnovers — it did limit Russell Wilson to one of his worst home games ever in the last outing. With Jackson resting on the bye week, he can use his legs with reckless abandon on Sunday night, though I think scrambles will be the way to go over the designed runs they like to use too. The Patriots aren’t their usual offensive selves this year, so I don’t think he’ll have to score a ton to win this game and the Ravens can shrink the number of possessions by controlling the clock through their run-heavy attack.

This is only Jackson’s 16th start and Bill Belichick will certainly hope to confuse him to make some mistakes with his arm against that veteran secondary. That’s why I don’t think the Ravens need to go away from their run-heavy approach because it would just be playing right into NE’s hands. Jackson has to be cautious early and avoid the turnovers that put Cleveland and the Jets in such quick, huge holes the last two weeks against the Patriots.

I still believe that experience matters in beating the Patriots, so Jackson’s first look could be a rough one here, but if it serves him better come playoff time then so be it. I’m just glad to see the Patriots are getting an opponent who shouldn’t crap its pants before the first quarter is over.

Also, the Patriots don’t have a good kicker anymore while the Ravens have maybe the best one ever in Justin Tucker. So if it’s a really tight game, that could be crucial. No Billy Cundiff here.

NFL Week 9 Predictions

I felt alright about the 49ers covering on Thursday night, but the Cardinals were very competitive once again against Kyle Shanahan’s team. Just weren’t able to get the ball back late.

2019Wk9

I’ll update the picks on Twitter on Sunday when we find out if Patrick Mahomes is playing for the Chiefs. I like KC if he is, but we’ll see how that one shakes out.

2019Wk1-8

NFL Week 3 Predictions: Greatest Plays Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is a pattern. In Week 3, nine NFL teams will attempt to move to 3-0 while nine more are looking for their first win. There’s not a whole lot about the slate that interests me on paper, so let’s start with a look back at something NFL Network completed last night before we get to the early game of the year (BAL-KC) as well as my thoughts on Ben Roethlisberger’s season-ending injury.

100 Greatest Plays

Last night the NFL wrapped up its four-part series on the 100 Greatest Plays in NFL history (see list here). When you have more than a million plays to choose from, narrowing it down to 100 is no easy task. Okay, granted we can chop off hundreds of thousands runs for 4 yards or less, but it’s still a challenge.

For the most part, I thought they came up with a pretty solid list. The biggest omission for me was the TD pass Joe Flacco threw to Jacoby Jones with Rahim Moore blowing the coverage. That was a more stunning and ultimately more important play than the 76th-ranked Tim Tebow OT winner to Demaryius Thomas from the previous season. It’s not like the argument that one play won the game while the other forced overtime is valid either, because they put John Elway’s TD pass to cap off The Drive to force overtime at #30. In the context of highlighting singular plays rather than drives or full games, it’s pretty absurd that ranks 30th and Jones doesn’t rank at all. In short, they really botched the Denver playoff games with this list.

But I thought they did well to include perhaps the funniest play in NFL history (The Butt-Fumble), the most memorable blocked punt in NFL history (Steve Gleason in 2006), the best lateral-filled plays (River City Relay, Miracle in Miami), the most shocking punt return TD (Miracle at the Meadowlands II), and my favorite QB run ever (Steve Young TD vs. Vikings). A little too much love for RBs, but like I always say, that nostalgic love for the workhorse back dies hard with old-school fans.

There’s an error on the NFL site that attributes Elway’s aforementioned TD vs. Cleveland to being a 49ers play. So the 49ers are tied with the Vikings for the most plays (15) in the top 100. Obviously they weren’t always on the positive side of those plays, especially the Vikings with He Did What, Old Man Willie, The Hail Mary/Push Off, Tony Dorsett 99 yards, Vick’s OT TD run, Cromartie’s 109 yard TD return, 65 Toss Power Trap, and Steve Young’s TD run. The other teams in double digits were the Cowboys (10), Packers (10), Patriots (12), and Giants (12).

While they only had 9 plays, I have to say the Steelers are as well represented as any team in this feature. They have four of the top 12 plays, including The Immaculate Reception (#1), Roethlisberger to Holmes in the SB (#6), James Harrison’s 100-yard pick-six (#7), and Lynn Swann’s SB Circus Catch (#12).

I would be remiss not to highlight the six positive plays that were featured from the Patriots dynasty (2001-present):

  • No. 99 – The Butt Fumble (Mark Sanchez runs into his own teammate for a fumble returned by NE for a TD)
  • No. 85 – Brady throws an interception to Champ Bailey, but Ben Watson tracks him down 100 yards to prevent a pick-six
  • No. 84 – Randy Moss makes a one-handed touchdown catch against Darrelle Revis in 2010
  • No. 22 – In SB 51, Brady’s pass goes through Robert Alford’s hands and is caught by Julian Edelman inches off the ground for a 20+ yard completion.
  • No. 18 – The greatest FG in NFL history is Adam Vinatier’s snow kick vs. Oakland after The Tuck Rule.
  • No. 5 – The greatest INT in NFL history is Malcolm Butler at the 1-yd line vs. Seattle in SB 49.

Notice who isn’t highlighted in any of these plays: Tom Brady. He was on the sideline for three of them. As for the other three, he should have had two interceptions (including a pick-six), but was bailed out by his teammates, and Moss made a great catch for him. While it’s not like inclusion on this list is necessary for being the greatest player (Jerry Rice has zero plays too), this just shows what I’ve been saying for years. Some of the greatest plays in history have gone NE’s way because of players not named Brady, and he’s taken advantage of that to get such a surplus of rings and SB appearances.

Half the rings disappear without three of the top 22 plays in history. That’s why they’re understandably so high on the list.

Steelers without Ben Roethlisberger

Ben Roethlisberger (elbow surgery) is out for the season. He’s had plenty of injuries throughout his career, but he’s always avoided the serious ones until now. With this season-ending one, he’s up to 29 career games missed due to injury and you can see where that ranks among active starters:

So now what? The Steelers look terrible on defense too, but NE-SEA was a tough opening slate and the schedule should ease up. Second-year QB Mason Rudolph takes over as the starter and he’s more talented than previous backups such as Dennis Dixon, Landry Jones and Josh Dobbs. The Steelers have had a significant decline in passing production without Roethlisberger in his career, but there are some reasons for optimism around Rudolph beyond just having a college rapport with WR James Washington.

For one, the Steelers might have to actually coach for a change. I think there’s a serious downside to having a franchise quarterback that no one ever talks about or has studied. It’s when your team becomes so reliant on that player that the other parts of the team slack off and don’t pull their own weight because they trust the QB can pick up the slack. You can apply this to the careers of Dan Marino, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers in recent years, etc. Smart organizations like Bill Walsh’s 49ers or Bill Belichick’s Patriots don’t rely on the QB as much so if Joe Montana or Tom Brady missed games, those teams didn’t just fall apart like the others did.

The Steelers got off to a sluggish offensive start this season, but there were some clear trends in the limited time that Roethlisberger was the QB. Without Antonio Brown, they have tried to field a variety of wide receivers to fill the production and things have started poorly with Donte Moncrief playing terrible football.

Basically, with Roethlisberger the 2019 Steelers tried to go with an empty backfield and have Ben throw quick, short passes to receivers who couldn’t catch or do anything with the ball in their hands. There was no running game to speak of. It wasn’t working and they only scored 3 points in NE before another slow start against Seattle. But once Rudolph came into the game, the Steelers went to the play-action attack, something they do the least in the league since last season. They called a flea-flicker, which Rudolph completed for 45 yards even if it was a little underthrown. He also got one great catch out of rookie Diontae Johnson, so those two plays accounted for more than half of his yardage last week.

Leave it up to Mike Tomlin’s staff to think that they have to make the game easier on the young QB by using play-action and getting the tight end involved more. Meanwhile, they could have been doing the same things with Roethlisberger in the game as we know play-action can be such an effective tool for anyone. Unfortunately, the Steelers have this mindset that without Le’Veon Bell no one will respect the run, but that’s just not the case with how play-action gets linebackers to instinctively pause to play the run before adjusting to it being a pass. So if the Steelers are going to call more “easy plays” to help out Rudolph, then it’s a good thing even if these are things they already should have been doing with Roethlisberger. Benching (hell, flat out cutting is the right move) Moncrief and getting Washington and Vance McDonald more involved are moves that should get the offense back on track, but it could very well be a long season.

So we’ll see how the offense changes with Rudolph, but also keep an eye on the defense. That unit can field eight first-round picks to start the game now that they traded for Minkah Fitzpatrick, so Tomlin and Keith Butler have no excuses about not having the talent. It’s not good that the game is in San Francisco and the 49ers are the only offense to not go three-and-out so far this season. 0-3 could be the reality for Pittsburgh, but I still believe the schedule has 7-9 wins if Rudolph plays well.

Ravens at Chiefs (-6)

I’m really excited about this game after it was one of the best in 2018, and these definitely look like two of the only three good teams in the AFC. So this one should be important for seeding. I’m a little surprised the Chiefs are still a 6-point favorite after being a 6.5-point favorite last season over a Baltimore team that didn’t look as good offensively as it has this year.

The quarterbacks have been awesome, but what’s it going to take for Patrick Mahomes to have a so-so game (let alone bad) in the NFL? It hasn’t happened yet, but the Ravens came the closest to keeping him under his scoring threshold (26+ points) last year. Remember, the Chiefs were down 24-17 after 59 minutes of last December’s meeting. Baltimore ran the ball a lot that day and played some keep-away from Mahomes, though he did still dazzle with the no-look pass in the first half. Harrison Butker missed two FGs that day too, but the fact is Mahomes had to convert a miracle 4th-and-9 to save this game as well as a TD on 4th-and-3. That 4th-and-9 bomb was to Tyreek Hill, who is still out injured. Eric Fisher and Damien Williams are also out so injuries are piling up for the offense. Baltimore may not be as strong defensively and CB Jimmy Smith is out, so it does suck that we’re already talking about so many injuries for a Week 3 game.

I like the Chiefs in this one because I was encouraged by Arizona’s 23-17 final in Baltimore last week. If Kyler Murray was able to throw for 349 yards and repeatedly get his offense inside the 5-yard line, I trust Mahomes to do the same and finish more drives with touchdowns instead of wimpy FGs. But don’t discredit the way Lamar Jackson has started this season, and I’m sure he’s licking his chops at a defense that is allowing 6 YPC and over 70% completions. Baltimore could go on some really long drives again that shrink Mahomes’ opportunities and force him to be close to perfect.

This should be a lot of fun.

NFL Week 3 Predictions

It’s pretty embarrassing to see spreads of 22 and 23 in any week in the NFL, let alone Week 3. I like to believe that teams take that to heart and usually cover, but I’m not sure the Jets and Dolphins care right now.

2019Wk3

I can’t figure out the Titans once again this year. I was probably too trusting of the team that beat Cleveland by 30, but they looked terrible in Jacksonville. They might be the worst team in the AFC South actually.

Keep in mind road teams have been killing it with 11 wins ATS in each of the first two weeks. I have a lot of home teams getting the job done this week, though that’s not on purpose.

2019Wk1-2

NFL Week 16 Predictions: 25% Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It’s not the 25% edition because I’m giving a fourth of the effort, nor does it have to do with Christmas. It’s 25% because I feel like only four games on the Week 16 schedule are really worth a damn. At least the NFL ordered them well.

Ravens at Chargers (-4.5)

With Tennessee’s win over the Redskins, this apparently means the Ravens have to win this game or their only way of making the playoffs is to get the AFC North out of Pittsburgh’s clutches. No more wild card possibility. Whether or not this is the penultimate game for the 2018 Ravens, I think the rest of their games bring the same questions. The defense will be fine, but can Lamar Jackson make enough throws in obvious passing situations to sustain enough scoring drives? They’re going to run the ball like crazy, but when a holding penalty happens or a false start and it’s second-and-15 or third-and-8, can Jackson deliver? He also has nine fumbles this year so ball security has been an issue.

The fact that the Ravens had the Chiefs down 24-17 in Kansas City speaks well to the type of team they’re running right now, which is different from most of the NFL. I think they’ll play well tonight, and I don’t fully buy into the Chargers like some are doing after some fortunate comeback wins. However, I think Philip Rivers has been consistent this year and he’ll deliver enough throws to take the Ravens out of their comfort zone with Jackson and he’ll have to play from behind. If this game was in Baltimore I’d definitely pick the Ravens, but alas it is not.

Texans at Eagles (-2)

These two teams have played a ton of close games this season with the Texans often winning and the Eagles often failing in those spots. However, I think you have to still give the Eagles a chance with Nick Foles, who played well again in taking over for Carson Wentz last week. I think when he’s in the game the running game has more breathing room, they use the RPO more, and he gets the wide receivers involved better than Wentz, who locks onto Zach Ertz a lot. Foles will also take some chances on low-percentage deep balls and hit those plays too.

I think Houston is a team with a few mega-talented players (Watson, Hopkins, Watt. Clowney), but some of the depth issues or roster holes prevent them from blowing teams out. Watson also takes too many sacks, and I think playing on the road in Philly with their season basically on the line can be a tough spot for Houston.

Steelers at Saints (-6.5)

Here’s a game that could be impacted by tonight’s outcome in LA. If the Ravens pull off a big upset, then the Steelers better show up for this one, because they’ll need help next week if they’re going to make the playoffs. The Saints have however looked very mortal for a month, especially with the passing game struggling to produce 200 yards with Drew Brees. Of course, the last three games were on the road, though weather wasn’t an issue. I think the Superdome brings out the best in this team, and this is going to be a tough spot for a Pittsburgh defense that is prone to blown coverages and miscommunication. We also know the offense is sloppier on the road, and there are injury concerns with James Conner (out) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (likely to play).

If Ben Roethlisberger wants to remind Cameron Jordan that he’s a HOF lock and brings his A game, then I think the Steelers have the ability to pull this one off on the road. They’re a top 5 scoring team this season too. Part of me just thinks the Ravens will lose tonight, so some Steelers will be finding Tinder girls on Bourbon Street and not really caring about the outcome tomorrow, putting the pressure on beating the Bengals at home next week to claim the division. At the very least, the (in all likelihood) final game between Brees and Ben will hopefully be an entertaining shootout.

Chiefs at Seahawks (+1.5)

This is an intriguing matchup on Sunday night where something has to give:

I look at the total for this game (55 points) and can really see the Seahawks winning 31-24. I think they can gash the run defense of Kansas City, which will limit Patrick Mahomes’ possessions again and force him to be more efficient on the road against what is still a quality defense. Russell Wilson has been mostly strong this season aside from a few games. Under Pete Carroll at home in prime time is a spot where the Seahawks especially shine on defense. I think Seattle ends the KC streak of games with 26 points, albeit by a slim margin, and gets this win.

NFL Week 16 Predictions

Well the hits keep coming after I got the spread wrong for WAS-TEN. I’m taking some chances this week too in expecting some underdogs to cover.

2018Wk16

Yes I really picked the Raiders to win straight up in a game I’m not planning to watch much of.

Wk1-15

NFL Week 4 Predictions: This Could Be Interesting Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

When I look at the Week 4 schedule, I see a lot of games that may not be that exciting to watch, but if the underdog comes to play, it could be a very interesting Sunday.

Just a few quick thoughts before the picks.

Texans at Colts (-1) – with Houston 0-3 and the 1-2 Colts heading to New England after this game, it’s basically an early playoff elimination game for these teams. I’ve been disappointed by both so far, especially in regards to the way the offenses have handled their returning QB. I would be worried for the Colts in this one with the way J.J. Watt was back on track last week (3.0 sacks), but T.Y. Hilton has shredded that defense throughout his career. Now we just have to see if Luck is still willing to get him the ball deep in this new offense.

Dolphins at Patriots (-7) – A sign of the end times would be the Dolphins going to 4-0 by beating the Patriots in New England. As good as that would be for the AFC, I just cannot see it happening even though I see very little happening from the Patriots on either side of the ball right now. Miami won the last meeting in December when no one expected it, and it’s not like this would be a shock after the way the Dolphins have produced big pass plays and interceptions this season. I just harp back on the way Miami is scraping by some so-so competition. Falling behind in New England is a no-no, and Adam Gase has been down by 18+ in his first two games there with the Dolphins. I am very interested to see what Ryan Tannehill does in the biggest game of his NFL career, but I’m not yet a believer that we’re seeing a changing of the guard in the AFC East.

Browns at Raiders (-3) – When I made my preseason predictions, I had the Browns going on a winning streak starting with the Jets game, followed by dropping Jon Gruden’s Raiders to 0-4. I might as well stick with it, picking the Browns to win their first road game since Week 5 of 2015. A big reason is the defense, which has been stellar so far. I think as long as Gregg Williams doesn’t leave too soft of a space for Derek Carr to keep dumping the ball into, they’ll get pressure on him and make him very uncomfortable. I also think the lack of pass rush by Oakland should help Baker Mayfield ease into his first start. I’d take Cleveland straight up in this one.

Ravens at Steelers (-3) – It’s been two dramatic come-from-behind wins by Pittsburgh in the last two meetings at Heinz Field. Baltimore plays this team tough all the time, and I see no exception this week. Baltimore’s offense has been much better so far this season and Joe Flacco even hung 38 points in the last meeting in December. These are better receivers to deal with and the Steelers have been giving up a lot of points since the Ryan Shazier injury. The offense is going to have to be great again, which it usually is at home. Antonio Brown is often held in check by the Ravens, but at least Jimmy Smith is still suspended. I’ll pick the Steelers to win by a small margin, but a Baltimore win wouldn’t be the least bit surprising.

Chiefs (-5) at Broncos – There will come a time when Patrick Mahomes has an off game, but he’s in historic form so far. He already has a start and a game-winning drive at Mile High under his belt, and I’m not sure any defense that lets Derek Carr complete 29-of-32 passes should still be considered as vaunted. The Chiefs have been doing very well in this rivalry the last few years and I think we’ll see another good game from Mahomes on Monday night. The only thing that can spoil it is if Case Keenum finally takes advantage of this poor KC defense. Keenum has really struggled in the first half this year.

NFL Week 4 Predictions

I had the Rams winning 30-24 on TNF, but the 38-31 final gives me a push to start the week against the spread.

2018Wk4

I like NE, GB, DAL, and JAX all to rebound with a home win. I also think the Chargers are a double-digit favorite that should actually cruise this week now that Jimmy Garoppolo is out.

2018Wks1-3

NFL Week 16 Predictions: Christmas Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

For family reasons, I’m not too much into the Christmas spirit this year, so I welcome a weekend of important NFL action as a distraction.

San Diego at Cleveland

No one wants to lose to an 0-14 team on Christmas Eve, but I’d put an upset alert on San Diego here. Traveling across the country for an early game against a team trying to finally win a game at home in its last opportunity this season. We’ve seen Philip Rivers and the Chargers lose an ugly 7-6 game in Cleveland in 2012. A pick parade is never out of the question, and it’s a tough game to not have Melvin Gordon for, because he would have had a huge fantasy day most likely. I’m still going to pick San Diego, but this game is a little more interesting to me than the last few Cleveland massacres. I’m saying there’s a chance…

It’s not like Jets at New England where the Jets really have no chance.

Atlanta at Carolina

I think the “Ron Rivera and Cam Newton know how to finish strong in December” thing is overblown, and it begs the question why their Sept-Nov. seasons are usually poor. But this is going to be a tough game for Atlanta, which lost 38-0 in Carolina a season ago. In Week 4, Matt Ryan kind of put a stamp on the 2016 Panthers in showing it was going to be a long year with a 500-yard passing game, including 300 yards for Julio Jones, who should be back from injury this week. The Falcons have the No. 1 offense, Luke Kuechly is still out with a concussion, but I think you’ll see the Falcons struggle on the road here. Hopefully one so-so or even bad game from Ryan doesn’t detract away from the outstanding MVP season he’s had to this point, but you know how moronic voters can be with this stuff. The Panthers are the last real challenge from Ryan finishing strong and leading the Falcons to a division title. This is my top game for the 1 p.m. slot. MIN/GB isn’t bad, but not really that interested in seeing those teams again.

Indianapolis at Oakland

I’m probably going to jinx them, but you know what hasn’t been happening this year? The Colts haven’t been getting blown out early and losing games by huge margins like they usually do several times a season under Chuck Pagano. In fact, the Colts have won four road games in a row, two blowouts, and scored 31+ points each time. They’ve even won in Green Bay and Minnesota in impressive fashion. So can Andrew Luck outduel Derek Carr in Oakland? I don’t see why not. You could argue that Luck has been better overall than Carr this season, but the Colts have still lost to the Jaguars and swept by the Texans to be at 7-7 instead of in first place. Meanwhile, just about every fourth-down decision (and penalty call) has gone Oakland’s way late in games this year, and the Raiders are the only team in 2016 not to have blown a fourth-quarter lead. From Twitter, I’m a bit scared that multiple people have thought that an 11-3 team hasn’t had many fourth-quarter leads to blow, but common sense should tell you they have. They just make the necessary plays to end games, and have seven 4QC wins now (one shy of Detroit’s new record). This should be a fun, high-scoring game, but I’ll take Oakland just because of Khalil Mack’s potential to wreck damage against the offensive line whereas Carr should have better protection. But an Indy win would come as no surprise, obviously.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

The AFC North is basically going to be decided on Christmas afternoon in Pittsburgh, making this low-key one of the biggest games of Mike Tomlin’s career. Because if the Steelers lose this one at home to drop a fifth straight game to Baltimore, then the playoffs are likely not happening. And this is a season where just about anything could happen in the playoffs due to the down year in competition. So I’m a little surprised that the Steelers are a 6-point favorite. Baltimore usually plays them tough, and it’s going to come down to if the offensive line for Pittsburgh can play at a high level. The Ravens tend to contain Le’Veon Bell, and do a good job on Antonio Brown. They also seem to get a deflected pick from Ben Roethlisberger every contest now, and Terrell Suggs has a long history of sacking him in this rivalry. On the other side, the Pittsburgh defense has not allowed more than 20 points during this five-game winning streak, but check the offensive competition: Browns, Colts (no Andrew Luck), Giants, Bills and Bengals (no A.J. Green). Not exactly a bunch of juggernauts, or even average offenses there. Of course, you could say Baltimore fits right into that this year, but I wouldn’t discount Joe Flacco from playing well in this one. I’m going to pick the Steelers, obviously, but I don’t feel confident about it. If they look flat early, look for Baltimore to win and go on to take the division.

2016 Week 16 Predictions

I even knew I should have picked the Eagles on TNF, but still trusted the Giants defense. Well, the Giants did allow fewer points (17) than the Eagles (19), but that early pick-six was a killer, as was the final interception of the night for Eli Manning.

Winners in bold:

  • Jets at Patriots
  • Titans at Jaguars
  • Chargers at Browns
  • Falcons at Panthers
  • Redskins at Bears
  • Dolphins at Bills
  • Vikings at Packers
  • Colts at Raiders
  • 49ers at Rams
  • Buccaneers at Saints
  • Cardinals at Seahawks
  • Bengals at Texans
  • Ravens at Steelers
  • Broncos at Chiefs
  • Lions at Cowboys

Looks like another big week for the home teams, or a very wrong week for me coming up.

  • Week 1: 7-9
  • Week 2: 10-6
  • Week 3: 8-8
  • Week 4: 8-7
  • Week 5: 7-7
  • Week 6: 12-3
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Week 8: 7-6
  • Week 9: 8-5
  • Week 10: 7-7
  • Week 11: 12-2
  • Week 12: 12-4
  • Week 13: 10-5
  • Week 14: 9-7
  • Week 15: 12-4
  • Season: 139-85

NFL Week 1 Predictions

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The 2013 NFL season opener would make for a good source of SAT questions.

The Baltimore Ravens are the defending Super Bowl champions. Dallas Clark, Brandon Stokley, Marlon Brown, Ricky Wagner, Chris Canty and Elvis Dumervil are Baltimore Ravens. Which of the following statements are true?

That may be the reason no defending champion has won even a playoff game since the 2005 Patriots. It’s a much different team just seven months later. Many of the key Ravens on Thursday night — Clark and Stokley combined for 22 targets — had nothing to do with the team’s 2012 season.

Meanwhile the Broncos could supply the math questions as Peyton Manning had one of the most prolific passing games with 462 yards and 7 TD. Finally a post-merger QB hit the 7 TD mark and it took an absurdly stupid play by linebacker Danny Trifflin’ Trevathan to set up the situation for it to happen.

Manning (42) and Flacco (62) combined for 104 pass attempts, which set a record for the most combined pass attempts in a non-OT game in NFL history. In fact, it’s the second-most pass attempts ever in regulation as only these overtime games had as many or more attempts:

  • 11/13/1994 New England vs. Minnesota (OT) – 112 attempts (106 in regulation)
  • 11/22/2012 Detroit vs. Houston (OT) – 109 attempts (90 in regulation)
  • 10/18/1987 Miami vs. NY Jets (OT; replacement game) – 104 attempts (82 in regulation)
  • 9/6/1998 NY Jets vs. San Francisco (OT) – 104 attempts (95 in regulation)

If we included playoff games, then the 2011 NFC Divisional between the 49ers and Saints would be second with 105 attempts in regulation. This is probably a sign of things to come.

Manning now sits comfortably in this list that shows the leaders for having the most games with a certain number of TD passes (including playoffs):

SGTD

A historic opener indeed, and a good start to my “year of the Broncos” prediction.

I will no longer be doing a writing recap in my weekly predictions as I am not writing for as many sites this season (though I did appear three places this week). Instead I will do a weekly update in the archives, so be sure to check that section out. It was the reason I started this blog.

2013 NFL Week 1 Predictions

Last season I went 168-87-1 (.658). Let’s shoot for better since I’ll have even more data to crunch this season. It’s a 1-0 start as I obviously had Denver beating Baltimore.

Winners in bold:

  • Buccaneers at Jets
  • Patriots at Bills
  • Vikings at Lions
  • Raiders at Colts
  • Titans at Steelers
  • Chiefs at Jaguars
  • Seahawks at Panthers
  • Bengals at Bears
  • Falcons at Saints
  • Dolphins at Browns
  • Packers at 49ers
  • Cardinals at Rams
  • Giants at Cowboys
  • Eagles at Redskins
  • Texans at Chargers

I am not brave enough to pick it, but do not be surprised if the Chargers give Houston all it can handle late Monday night. Also it would not shock me if the Jets win and Rex Ryan can have a “shut the frack up!” week to the media.

Be sure to enjoy Sunday Week 1 as we only get to experience a finite number of these in our lifetime.