Tag: Seahawks

NFL Week 17 Predictions: Making History Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I would say this regular season has gone quickly, but it feels like eons ago when Antonio Brown caught a touchdown for the Patriots down in Miami. Things have changed a lot since and we only have four of the 12 playoff seeds locked up going into this final Sunday. A whopping four teams can still win the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

With some teams probably mailing in this last game, I’d save my money and look to bet big on the playoffs. Here are some musings on the history we could see happen on Sunday.

Top-Heavy Season

It’s been a season of the haves and the have nots. The AFC could have just five teams with a winning record if the Steelers (8-7) and Titans (8-7) don’t beat Baltimore and Houston teams that should be resting key players. The same thing can happen in the NFC if the Eagles (8-7) and Rams (8-7) don’t win. At best we’ll have 14 teams with a winning record, the fewest since 2015 (13). You’d have to go back to top-heavy 2011 to find a season with 12 winning teams.

Jameis Winston: 30 for 30

Jameis Winston can make history by having the first season in NFL history with 30 TD passes and 30 interceptions. He has 31 TD and 28 INT going into tomorrow and should surpass 5,000 passing yards to lead the league. If anyone could do it, it’s Jameis. He should be up to 29 after the first drive. Then it’s just a matter of chasing infamy.

Three Stooges Alert

The Buffalo Bills (10-5) are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC and have little reason to go full throttle against the Jets. However, if they win this game and finish 11-5, it will trigger a little history for the Three Stooges of the AFC East. It’ll be the first time since realignment in 2002 that the Patriots had a division rival win 11 games without their help. The 2008 Dolphins finished 11-5, but one of those wins was against the Patriots (Wildcat game). The 2010 Jets finished 11-5, but one of those wins was against the Patriots. The Bills could get to 11-5 even after getting swept by the Patriots.

We’ll see if the Bills can come anywhere close to the 2010 Jets’ playoff run. The Jets haven’t returned to the playoffs since.

CLE/JAX: Don’t Promote from Within

It’s possible Freddie Kitchens (Browns) and Doug Marrone (Jaguars) could coach their last game for their team on Sunday. It reminds me of this tweet about promoting an interim coach or someone already on the staff to head coach. It’s usually a bad idea.

Patriots Defense

As expected, New England’s historic defense slowed down once the schedule put some good QBs/offenses on the field. But few teams have had much success against them this year. The Patriots go into the final game allowing 198 points on the season. Their most dominant game of the year was the 43-0 win in Miami in Week 2. If they can pitch a shutout again, they’ll become just the second team since 2001 to allow fewer than 200 points in a season. The 2002 Buccaneers allowed 196 points. If they just allow a field goal they’ll be tied with the 2006 Ravens (201) for the second fewest allowed.

As long as the Patriots don’t allow 25 points at home to Ryan Fitzpatrick, they’ll have the best scoring defense of any team since 2007.

Saints Eyeing 75/150

Michael Thomas already broke Marvin Harrison’s record of 143 catches in a season with 145. He just needs five to become the first player with 150 catches in a season. Drew Brees can break the single-season completion record for the third year in a row, becoming the first player to exceed 75% (he’s at 75.3%).

Golladay: The Last Hope?

It’s been a weird fantasy season with a lot of big names disappointing. Passing touchdowns are down a little, so it’s not that surprising to see receiving touchdowns down as well for the leading receivers.

Detroit’s Kenny Golladay leads the NFL with 11 touchdown catches. If that number holds through Sunday, it’ll be the first non-strike season in the NFL since 1975 that no one caught more than 11.

Steelers at Ravens: Not Meaningless

A bit more than pride is on the line for the Steelers and Ravens despite Baltimore resting key starters, including likely MVP winner Lamar Jackson. The Steelers need a win and help to make the playoffs. They also need to not lose by more than a field goal to extend their streak of .500 seasons with a positive scoring differential to 16 years. That would tie for the third-longest streak in NFL history. Only the 1965-1983 Cowboys (19 years) and 2001-2019 Patriots (19 years) have longer streaks.

The Ravens also need just 93 rushing yards to break the single-season record held by the 1978 Patriots (3,165). That should be easy with a running QB (Robert Griffin) and a gameplan that should try to run the clock faster than anything. It’s not like the Ravens need this win. The 1948 49ers actually rushed for 3,653 yards in 14 games, but that’s not the official record because the AAFC doesn’t count.

49ers at Seahawks: Playoffs Start Early

Sunday Night Football has the pleasure of giving us 49ers-Seahawks to end the regular season. It was a wild overtime finish last time, won by Seattle. Both teams are in the playoffs regardless, but this is still a huge game since a win would give the 49ers the No. 1 seed and next week off. Lose and they’re the No. 5 seed with Seattle likely sliding into No. 3. If you think the 49ers are the team of destiny this year, then they really need to come through and win this one in a building they haven’t won in since Russell Wilson was drafted (0-8).

Wilson, starting with that SF game, has not been as sharp over the last six games. Seattle has dropped two of the last three games and actually have three losses by 14+ points this year. The 49ers are 3.5-point favorites on the road here.

Due to the 49ers shockingly losing to the Falcons a few weeks ago, this game is still important to the team even if they did make a better decision in the first matchup. Remember when the 49ers had a chance to run out the clock and take a tie with Seattle, but threw three incomplete passes and watched Wilson drive for the win? At the time I thought it could be a huge blow to their chances of getting the No. 1 seed:

Had the 49ers taken the tie, they likely would have the division already clinched. They still would have needed to win this one to get homefield advantage, but the division wouldn’t be up for grabs like it is now.

The Seahawks are looking for their 12th win despite outscoring their schedule by 12 points this year. It’s been a great year for Wilson and the 49ers have been declining on defense as injuries pile up, but I still think I’m going to go with San Francisco to pull it off and earn the No. 1 seed.

NFL Week 17 Predictions

This is not the slate I want to try finish over .500 for, but I have some decent faith in the Browns, Colts, Falcons and Rams ending their season on a high note. I can also see Drew Lock edging the Raiders by a FG at home in Denver. I think the Chiefs keep rolling with this defense through the Chargers.

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For next season I’m probably going to move to a model approach to make my picks instead of going from the gut.

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NFL Week 14 Predictions: The Best Week of the Year Edition

~ Scott

December 8 was always the date to circle since the NFL schedule came out in April. That was the big Chiefs-Patriots game in New England, but now that we’re here, it’s actually a much bigger weekend with four marquee games. Those two teams aren’t even the current No. 1 seed in the AFC. That’s Baltimore, which has its final big road test in Buffalo, a surprise 9-3 team that almost controls its own destiny for home-field advantage. We also could see the Saints inch closer to the No. 1 seed in the NFC, and we should get some clarity on an MVP race that is down to Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson.

It took a little pure dumb luck with the 49ers and Bills stepping up, but the NFL has one hell of a schedule planned tomorrow. It shouldn’t get as big as this again until the playoffs, but first those seeds could really shake up because of what happens on Sunday.

49ers at Saints (-2)

The 49ers come in as a 2-point underdog in a tough place to play, though the Saints haven’t been able to blow out anyone at home aside from Arizona. Don’t forget that stunning 26-9 loss to the Falcons as well. I think the 49ers showed a lot of quality play on the road in rainy Baltimore last week and will welcome the dome conditions in this one. It is a bit of a disadvantage to be on the road in the early slot on the East for the second week in a row, but teams are better at handling that these days with travel.

The main reason I like the 49ers to win is their physical defense. I think they can key in on Michael Thomas — a matchup with Richard Sherman would be fun — as the Saints don’t have another player with 500 receiving yards. They have the front seven talent to harass Drew Brees, who took 6 sacks in the Atlanta loss but only three the rest of the season. Also, the Saints are the first team in NFL history to have just 7 giveaways thru 12 games of a season. They’ve lost just one fumble all year. That screams regression and the 49ers are the type of defense to make them pay there (24 takeaways rank 4th this year).

The 49ers are also No. 2 in points scored and points allowed this season. This is a very good team and I think Jimmy Garoppolo will shine just enough with the running game always being a threat to pull off this road win. If you’re continuing to compare the 2019 49ers to the 2017 Eagles, then think of this as their road win over the 2017 Rams which helped the Eagles get the top seed.

Ravens at Bills (+6.5)

The Bills have seven wins against teams picking in the top 11 of the 2020 draft as of right now. This would be a huge step up in class to beat a Baltimore team that has entered historic territory. The Ravens average 45 yards per drive on offense, which would set a record for the modern era. They can still become the first NFL offense ever to average 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing per game. Lamar Jackson is the MVP front-runner and the consistent threat that Bills fans wish Josh Allen was right now. Allen has been playing better in recent weeks, but the Bills are definitely at a disadvantage with an offense that ranks just 16th in yards per drive and 21st in points per drive. The Baltimore defense is also picking things up and actually do better at forcing turnovers than the Bills.

The spread feels about right for this one, but if there is a game where Jackson is going to look mortal, it would be a road game against a solid defense. Yet even when he’s contained as a passer, he’s still a major threat as a rusher so it’s been really hard on defenses this year to figure this unique offense out. I think Baltimore delivers on the road and continues holding onto the No. 1 seed over New England.

But don’t lose sight that this is one of the biggest games in Buffalo in the last 20 years. They could really use a win like this.

Chiefs at Patriots (-3)

So much for the 43-40 and 37-31 offensive shootouts of last year. These teams aren’t playing great offensively and that shouldn’t surprise you with New England. The old QB is having one of his worst slumps ever, but it’s rarely mattered thanks to the defense being so strong. The surprise is that Patrick Mahomes has just turned in the worst 8 quarters of his career. Over the last two games, Mahomes has completed 55.7 percent of his passes at 5.85 YPA with just 2 TD and 1 INT. He didn’t even crack 200 yards in either game. Fortunately, his defense picked off Philip Rivers and Derek Carr enough for it to not matter as the Chiefs won both games (sound familiar?).

This is a bad time for Mahomes to be slumping with a road test against a veteran secondary and all-around difficult defense to pass against this year. If the big plays aren’t there like they were for Mahomes last year against NE, then this one could be another ugly offensive game. Keep in mind that despite those high scores last year, the Patriots twice did something no other team has.

In 29 career games with Mahomes, the Chiefs have been held under 10 points in the first half twice: 9 points at Patriots (lost 43-40), 0 points vs. Patriots (lost 37-31 OT).

Mahomes needs to stop fading away from the line on so many of his passes and find a rhythm early so that he can play a complete game against the Patriots and force Brady to actually be good. My thought is that after the ugly loss in Houston, Brady will be sharper at home — I’d be all in on Chiefs if this was in Arrowhead — and the running game that’s gotten going in recent weeks will be used effectively against a subpar Chiefs defense.

So it’s not quite the super important game for the AFC as we thought it would be, but you’d still rather win it than not. It’s just unfortunate that between the Mahomes injury and some of the sloppy play the team has showed this year, even a win in NE doesn’t mean Kansas City won’t have to come back and do it all over again in January in a 3/2 matchup.

Seahawks at Rams (+1)

Their first meeting on TNF was one of the best games this season, one that the Rams would have won had it not been for a missed field goal by Greg Zuerlein. I said this almost two months ago:

Missed field goals have been great to Seattle this year. The 49ers also missed one in overtime that would have won that game after Russell Wilson’s inexplicable interception. So had those two NFC West kickers connected, this would be the 8-4 Seahawks at the 8-4 Rams. But because of two swings of the leg, it’s the 10-2 Seahawks at the 7-5 Rams. Wilson is still in the MVP race despite cooling off, and there’s a lot of disappointment surrounding Sean McVay and Jared Goff right now. What a league.

But it has been a wildly inconsistent year for the Rams and Goff. He’s had a few brilliant games, including last week when he was over 320 passing yards at halftime. He’s also had some major stinkers as has the defense, led by DC Wade Phillips and Aaron Donald, that always seems to escape any criticism.

I said earlier this week that the 2019 Saints and 2019 Seahawks are two of the worst 10-2 teams ever because of their tiny point differentials. Seattle is just +36, the smallest scoring differential ever for a 10-2 team. I think if Lamar Jackson shines in Buffalo and Wilson struggles in this game (another prime time one), the MVP is all but locked up for Jackson. So that’s another layer to keep in mind.

The outcome of SF-NO will give us a better idea of how big this game is on Sunday night, but it’s a last gasp effort for the Rams either way. They have to win this game and they easily could if their star players play up to their potential. I’m not surprised the spread is damn near a pick ’em with how unpredictable the Rams have been and how close to the vest Seattle has been. In the end, you trust Wilson over Goff in crunch time, but as this season has shown, all it takes is one play sometimes to decide a game. I wouldn’t bet on this one like I would the other three big games on Sunday.

NFL Week 14 Predictions

I had the Cowboys on TNF, so there’s another trainwreck to talk about some other time.

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A quick note on PIT-ARI: this would definitely fit the classic Mike Tomlin letdown game on the road. The Cardinals are an interesting young team without a lot of tape that the Steelers are familiar with. I think it’s a game where either the Cardinals win outright, or Duck Hodges has a breakout game against a terrible pass defense. Obviously I went with the former because I think the Steelers lack the weapons to get the job done without JuJu available again. James Washington had his career game last week so I can’t see him repeating it, but I am glad to see the Steelers get back to throwing downfield to wide receivers. This one could be fun, though I’d much rather be watching KC-NE.

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NFL Week 10 Predictions: Midseason MVP Edition

~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

Now that we are past the halfway point of the 2019 season, this is a good time to talk about the MVP candidates, especially since my pick is playing in the Game of the Week.

Through nine weeks, Russell Wilson is the clear choice for MVP if we had to award it today. He leads the NFL in touchdown passes (22), TD% (7.5%), INT% (0.3%), passer rating (118.2) and QBR (78.6). He’s the main reason Seattle, with a pretty weak defense, is 7-2 and has also led four 4QC/GWD (also leads the league).

Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson have also done great things this year — wow, Bill Polian might have a stroke — but Wilson has been the most consistently spectacular. I don’t think this is a tough choice as of right now, but things could change in a hurry.

The Seahawks are scheduled to play five straight games against winning teams, including four straight in prime time. This could either lock the MVP up for Wilson on big stages, or see his campaign go down in flames should Seattle falter and miss the playoffs.

While the close wins to overcome the defense have been strong evidence for Wilson’s MVP campaign, the upcoming schedule should definitely give some pause to whether or not they can sustain this success. The Seahawks are just +18 in scoring differential this season. That makes them the 9th team since 1940 to start 7-2 or better with a scoring differential no greater than 20 points:

I will point out that all of those teams made the playoffs. Some reached conference title games and the Super Bowl (1976 OAK even won it all), but this isn’t done often. The NFC is very competitive with what looks like nine teams fighting for six playoff spots. The 49ers (8-0) are the last undefeated team and could force the Seahawks into a Wild Card berth at best. Should Seattle slip in these head-to-head games with their direct competition for those wild cards (Vikings/Eagles/Rams/Panthers all come to mind), then you could see a scenario where a 10-6 Seattle team is left out of the playoffs. Even if Wilson still has the stellar numbers, I can’t imagine anyone voting for a MVP on a non-playoff team. I wouldn’t outside of extreme circumstances, which I don’t think will be present this year since the other QBs are going to have their own cases.

Mahomes still has the best shot in my view, especially if he helps KC run the table (that would mean a win in NE in Week 14). I don’t think missing essentially 2.75 games will detract voters enough, and if they care to dig into the numbers a little deeper, Matt Moore’s QBR (57.7) is nearly 20 points below Mahomes’ (77.2).

Back to the NFC West, the 49ers had one of their best challenges this year in Arizona last time out. Now they will host Wilson and the Seahawks on Monday night. I was not buying into the hype of the SF defense based on the schedule it started the season with — similar to the Patriots’ first eight games compared to what the Ravens brought to the table last week. With the 49ers, there have been great resources poured into the DL over the years. Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander (injured reserve) were big additions this year. It is the third year for Kyle Shanahan/Robert Saleh as a HC//DC duo. But I still think the schedule has been very advantageous and the 49ers will have to prove their success when they play Seattle (2x), Green Bay, Baltimore, New Orleans and the Rams again. The schedule is about to get a lot tougher and we’ve seen (a la 2013 Chiefs) how that can expose a paper tiger.

Now if Wilson can pull off this road win, then that’s just going to be another pro argument for his MVP case. He has rarely produced big numbers against the 49ers in his career. While he’s 12-3 against them, he’s never thrown for more than 260 yards in any of those games. The 49ers also have an offense that can score this year with a much better QB, so this probably isn’t going to be a game Seattle can win with < 21 points (Note: do have to monitor if George Kittle will play or not). The 49ers aren’t as stout against the run (20th in DVOA compared to No. 1 vs. pass), so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Seahawks revert to their run-heavy approach this week, putting the onus on Wilson to make things happen on 3rd downs and in the 4Q.

Monday is a very important game for both of these teams. The rematch isn’t until Week 17 where the 49ers could possibly be locked into a bye and could rest starters. Hey, maybe that helps the Seahawks make the playoffs in the end, but as long as the division title is still up for grabs, it would be a real MVP move for Wilson to ball out and get the win on Monday night.

I don’t think that’s going to happen, so expect this to be a topic again down the road.

NFL Week 10 Predictions

I had the Raiders winning 27-23 on TNF and they won 26-24.

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I’m glad to see Mahomes back. Need everything you can get to spice up a Tennessee game. I think the Browns can beat Buffalo, but at this point I’m just not going to trust them and roll with the better defense. I like Arians to hang a good number on his old team. I actually think the Jets step up in the terrible New York battle. I have no idea what to expect from Cincinnati QB Ryan Finley. Can he get a backdoor cover like Dalton did against Baltimore? I’m just going to lean on the Ravens to keep rolling. Doing stupid things like trusting the Jets and Bears is probably why I haven’t done so well this year at picking games, but here I am again going with Chicago after reading some shaky reports on Stafford’s health. I think the Steelers can slow down McVay’s offense, but I don’t trust Mason Rudolph against a defense with elite players when he might not have a healthy JuJu available (James Conner already out).

Finally, I noted that Kirk Cousins (0-25) and Dak Prescott (3-13) are a combined 3-38 in their careers when their passer rating is under 85.0. That’s the biggest disparity from record in games above 85.0 among active QBs. So it would be surprising to see one of them win without playing modestly well Sunday night. I figure a Kirk Cousins team on the road against a good pass rush and team that can score sounds like a Vikings loss to me, but we’ll see.

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NFL Week 2 Predictions: Mono vs. Stereo Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

My gut still tells me Week 2 is arguably the hardest to predict in a season since you’re trying to weigh your preseason expectations with that 1/16th of reality from a week ago. What’s real and what’s opponent-based fluff? Some injuries are already real this year, and that can change things for  teams, but I want to see if Lamar Jackson is the new sophomore demigod QB, if the Browns are actually still disappointing, and if the Bears just had another one of their one-year wonder seasons in 2018.

Frankly, there’s a lot of stuff I want to see pan out, so let’s just go over a few select Week 2 games.

Vikings at Packers (-3)

Is the Green Bay defense really that improved, or was Mitchell Trubisky just god-awful bad in Week 1? Can the Packers even prepare much for the Minnesota passing offense after Kirk Cousins threw just 10 passes last week? This was a fantastic game in Lambeau last year that ended in a tie. The Vikings had horrible special teams that day and I felt like Cousins outplayed Rodgers and should have got the win. I’m going with this improved Minnesota team to put the clamps on Rodgers again and for the Vikings to get the upset road win.

Patriots at Dolphins (+19)

A-Fucking-C East I tell ya. What a legacy this division has behind the Patriots. Last year it was Buffalo as a 16.5-point underdog in Week 3 to Minnesota, but the Bills actually won that game. Now the Patriots are a 19-point favorite in Miami, the biggest spread in September since the Seahawks were a 20-point favorite against the 2013 Jaguars (Seattle won 45-17).

Teams favored by more than 14 points in September are 6-14-2 ATS and 18-4 SU since 1978.

As for the Patriots specifically (all months), they are 0-5 ATS when favored by more than 17 points. All but one of those games came in the 2007 season. It’s still worth mentioning that the Patriots are 10-1 ATS when favored by 15.5 to 17 points since 2001. That’s an excellent record as the only game they didn’t cover was the 2008 opener when Tom Brady tore his ACL against the Chiefs.

So the Patriots usually don’t cover spreads this large, and I think -19 should piss every person off in Miami. Of course, that’s assuming anyone there still gives a damn after a housecleaning offseason and a 59-10 destruction last week when they made the Baltimore passing offense look all world and even were destroyed on the ground as well in one of the worst openers ever for a team.

The 2019 Dolphins might be looking to set a record for least effort in a season in NFL history.

Now Belichick’s former assistants have had some success against him, including wins by Eric Mangini (2006 Jets), Josh McDaniels (2009 Broncos) and Matt Patricia (2018 Lions) in the past. Mike Vrabel (2018 Titans) also got a big win over his former head coach last year. The problem with Brian Flores is I just don’t think he’s cut out for this job and his team seems to be quitting on him in record time. I originally thought in my season preview that this would be Miami’s lone highlight of the season as Ryan Fitzpatrick would throw for 350 and the Patriots would drop another shocker in Miami. However, after the way these teams played last week I just can’t see that happening, and we haven’t even mentioned the destructive force named Antonio Brown, who still has some hours to cause another ruckus and not actually make his team debut.

With or without Brown, the Patriots are going to win this game with ease, though I think I’d be all over the “Patriots win by 19-24” bet in this one as I can see it being very close to the Vegas mark.

Seattle at Pittsburgh (-3.5)

I think it’s an advantage for Pittsburgh to get the Seahawks at 10:00 A.M. PST, because I remember the 2007 and 2011 meetings where the Steelers caught them sleepwalking early, winning 21-0 and 24-0 in seasons that still resulted in the postseason for Seattle.

However, those teams didn’t have Russell Wilson at QB. The good news for Pittsburgh is that the Seahawks still insist on running the ball so much on early downs, leading to Wilson having to be a magician on 3rd down and in the 4th quarter. We know he can be, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this game comes down to the final play, but I think the Pittsburgh defense will play much better at home this week against a more old-school offense. We know the Pittsburgh offense also plays better at home generally, and it’s hard to not do better than the 3-point output last week. I think people selling this offense after one game in NE are premature. The Steelers had four drives in a row where they just needed a yard to continue and failed every time by calling really stupid plays or not holding onto the ball. Donte Moncrief had a horrific debut and the Steelers have to get Vance McDonald and James Washington more involved. I think JuJu Smith-Schuster will be fine and Ben Roethlisberger should like what he saw with Andy Dalton throwing for over 400 yards against the new Seattle secondary (in Seattle even) last week.

I had the Steelers winning in Week 2 last year, but Patrick Mahomes carved them up with 6 TD passes. I don’t think Wilson will be allowed to be that great in this spot, but I still think the Steelers are in a dangerous spot to fall to 0-2 here if they aren’t sharp early. I can see this coming down to a last-second field goal win or a straight up loss. Also, Wilson has only lost 4 games out of 126 by more than 9 points. That’s why I love the teaser with Seattle +9.5.

Chiefs at Raiders (+7)

I would put the Chiefs on upset alert this week as they go on the road for the second game in a row. Tyreek Hill is out and Patrick Mahomes was limited a bit after an injury scare in Jacksonville. He didn’t attack deep and may not do much without Hill active as well. I still think he’ll keep his points streak (26+ in every game) alive, but Derek Carr can score on this defense too. He has the last couple of years at home and looked good last week as well. I won’t pick the Raiders to win, but I like them to cover.

Bears at Broncos (+2)

In my season preview I thought this was a lock for Denver at home, but now I’m not so sure after how these teams played last week. Sure, Trubisky and the offense sucked, but the defense still looked 2018 caliber. That’s bad news since Joe Flacco still looked 2013-2018 caliber, and the vaunted Denver pass rush did absolutely nothing against Oakland. Now the game does switch to Mile High where the Broncos are amazing in September, and Vic Fangio should know the Bears very well after being there for four seasons. So I still like some of those matchups, and I will admit that while Flacco was no fun to watch, he finished with a fair stat line and even had an easy TD dropped.

So I think I’m still leaning towards Denver at home, but it’s nowhere near the lock I felt it was going to be. I guess it basically comes down to which struggling QB do you expect to fold more against an elite pass rusher (Mack or Von).

Browns at Jets (+7)

This was a fun game last year as it turned out to be Baker Mayfield’s NFL debut (off the bench). It could have been even better this year if these two teams were looking to turn the tide an AFC where New England and Pittsburgh have reigned for so long. Of course, it’s only Week 2 and this looks like a shitshow already. The Browns were embarrassed at home by Tennessee last week and the Jets blew a 16-0 lead to Buffalo and lost Sam Darnold to mono.

Good luck, Adam Gase. You’re starting Trevor Siemian, though it’s hard to think he can be any worse than Darnold’s dink-and-dunk performance a week ago. The Jets also lost Quincy Enunwa for the whole year again, and there are other notable injuries with C.J. Mosley and Le’Veon Bell banged up.

The spread still looks a little high here as I’m not sure we can trust the Browns just yet, especially on the road where they almost never win this decade. Sure, it’s the Baker era and things are different, but as last week showed, they haven’t earned our trust just yet.

NFL Week 2 Predictions

I tend to believe in regression to the mean almost to a fault. So when I start a season 12-4 ATS, I expect a bloodbath in Week 2 to even things out. As I went over in the above games, not a lot of confidence flowing here, but these are my picks:

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I loved Panthers by 1-6 on TNF, and it likely would have worked if they called a QB sneak with Cam instead of the atrocity they used on 4th-and-inches.

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2018 NFL Wild Card and Full Playoff Predictions

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

The 2018 NFL season has been so competitive that I can’t help but think we’ll get some stunning playoff results this year. The point spreads being quite small (1-to-2.5 points) in three of the games this week looks like a good start for that. The last five chalky postseasons have produced nine No. 1 seeds in the Super Bowl and the 2016 Falcons were a No. 2 seed. The wild card teams aren’t necessarily strong this season, but the Chargers had a good year, the Colts are hot with Andrew Luck, the Eagles won the Super Bowl with Nick Foles last year, and the Seahawks are always a tough out. Throw in Baltimore’s old-school approach and the Chicago defense, and there’s a better chance we see a non-bye team go on a good run again.

Before I pick the whole tournament, I’m going to preview each of the four wild card games. I’m really just throwing out some thoughts at 5 A.M. (sleep schedule is FUBAR) rather than building a structured narrative or detailed analysis of the matchups. You can read the previews on FO for more of that.

Colts at Texans (-1)

It’s amazing these teams are here with double-digit wins after starting 0-3 and 1-5. Both defenses have benefited from a soft schedule (the softest of any two defenses in the NFL), though that’s a bit immaterial when they’re playing each other this week with a good quarterback matchup. I like the over. Houston has won a lot of close games and relied on some opposing coaching mistakes, including that memorable Frank Reich move in overtime in the 37-34 win by Houston. Had he taken the tie, this game would likely be in Indy this week, but I don’t think it’s a huge deal for the Colts in the end. They have won in Houston this year, they’ve won there before, and if you’re going to win a Super Bowl this year, you have to go beat a team like Kansas City anyway. Hell, it might even set up better if the Ravens or Chargers can knock off the Patriots, Indy’s personal nightmare venue.

But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, it’s Round 3 with Houston and a roster with some really talented players. None of those players are on the offensive line however, and I think Deshaun Watson’s tendency to hold the ball and take sacks can really help out an Indy defense that doesn’t have a dominant pass-rusher. Watson took 5 sacks in the last meeting and had to lead his team in rushing against a Colts defense that stops the run well. DeAndre Hopkins is always a problem, but T.Y. Hilton has been incredible in his career against Houston. He had 199 yards in the last matchup and has been playing at a high level despite his health. The Colts protect Luck much better this year, he’s changed his playing style to be more dart thrower than gunslinger, and I think the Colts can win this one on the road as long as he avoids the dumb interceptions like we saw on the pick-six in Tennessee on Sunday night.

Houston was 1-4 this year when allowing 24+ points with the only win being 37-34 over the Colts in overtime. Indy has scored 24+ in 11 games this year, including both against Houston. I like the Colts to score enough in this one and close it out late.

Final: Colts 27, Texans 24

Seahawks at Cowboys (-2)

Like the first game on Saturday, these teams are hot, and in Dallas’ case, playing a schedule with the AFC South and NFC East has helped out too. The Cowboys are 7-1 in their last eight, and 7-2 since the trade for Amari Cooper. He’s turned in some huge games that helped the Cowboys win the NFC East, but he also has 13 catches for 83 yards and a lost fumble in his last three games combined. That’s the problem with Cooper in that he’ll put up 180 and a score one week, then struggle to break 20 yards the next. The Seahawks don’t have Richard Sherman anymore, and while a respectable defense overall, they were 25th in DVOA against #1 wide receivers. Cooper needs to come up big in this one.

I like that Dallas has put more responsibility on Dak Prescott in recent weeks. He threw for 455 yards against the Eagles and added 387 against the Giants in Week 17, a game where Ezekiel Elliott and a couple star lineman didn’t even play. Prescott has been playing better the last eight games, but his problems this year are that he takes way too many sacks and he doesn’t pull the trigger as much as he should. If he’s not taking a sack, he’s settling for a checkdown, which is why he has the worst third down ALEX in the league. Those third-down struggles are also why his advanced stats aren’t too hot.

I’ll still take Russell Wilson any day over Prescott, but I think in many ways the Seahawks are the team Dallas wants to be when it comes to running and defense. The Seahawks are running the ball as much as anyone not named Baltimore, and it’s worked for the most part this year. Wilson didn’t even throw for 3500 yards, but he was efficient, had a dominant efficiency season with Tyler Lockett, and he still threw 35 touchdowns. Wilson hasn’t even broke 200 yards against Dallas in the last two meetings, and this Cowboys defense is playing better, but it didn’t matter. The Seahawks still won 21-12 and 24-13 after Prescott and the offense struggled in both matchups. I can see that happening again here, though with Cooper in the mix, Elliott back in action, and Prescott having experience to pull games out late, I think Dallas has a good shot in this matchup.

I’m still going with Seattle just because I trust Wilson and Pete Carroll more than I do Prescott and Jason Garrett. But it really is a game that could come down to Prescott hitting Gallup on a deep shot and Wilson not connecting with Lockett on a similar play like they have done so well this year.

Final: Seahawks 23, Cowboys 20

Chargers at Ravens (-2.5)

This was my big preview at FO, so go there for 3500+ words on the matchup. Basically, it boils down to both teams need to have a good start, but it’s even more important for the Ravens so they can keep up their style of running the ball and pressuring on defense. Philip Rivers can lead a comeback, but probably not from 14+ late against this defense. Can Lamar Jackson deliver enough with his arm if called upon? It’s best if the Ravens don’t find out yet, but with the way they play defense, special teams, and one of the best home-field advantages in the league, I think they take care of the Chargers in this one.

Final: Ravens 26, Chargers 20

Eagles at Bears (-6.5)

Outside of Colts-Texans, this might be the game with the widest range of possible outcomes this week. The Bears have a great defense that gets the most turnovers, but the Eagles have played better offensively with Nick Foles at quarterback. He’s also been prolific in the postseason, albeit that’s four starts. He seems to be good to go this week with the rib injury. With Mitchell Trubisky, the Bears aren’t exactly sure what they’re getting. I see him as a deluxe Rex Grossman with scrambling skills maxed out, but as a passer, he’s either Good Mitch or Bad Mitch each week. If the Eagles can pressure him and force him into mistakes, then they have a great shot of advancing as a true underdog this year.

Something I really like about the Bears under Matt Nagy is that they haven’t had a bad game yet this season. They finished 12-4, but they lost two games in overtime. They blew a huge lead in Week 1 against Green Bay and would have won that game if Kyle Fuller held onto Aaron Rodgers’ interception late. They would have beat the Dolphins with a field goal in overtime. They had a Hail Mary completed to the 1-yard line vs. New England, so maybe go for two there to win in regulation if they could have got that yard. They should have gone for two at the end of regulation against the Giants on a day Chase Daniel was QB1. Nagy, like Doug Pederson, hasn’t been afraid to try unorthodox fourth downs or two-point conversions this year. So the Bears haven’t laid any eggs this season, which is impressive for a rookie head coach with a team that hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2010.

The Eagles definitely win out at big-game experience, but I’ll trust the Bears to deliver on defense at home. The Bears are 12-0 when allowing fewer than 24 points this year (0-4 when allowing 24+). The Eagles have gotten to 24 points in Foles’ last three starts, but none of those defenses are on the level of Chicago.

Final: Bears 26, Eagles 19

In the end, I’m going with road dogs on Saturday with the better quarterbacks and the top two scoring defenses at home on Sunday.

2018 Full NFL Playoff Predictions

Here is my crack at predicting the whole tournament.

Wild Card:

  • Colts over Texans
  • Seahawks over Cowboys
  • Ravens over Chargers
  • Bears over Eagles

Divisional:

  • Chiefs over Colts
  • Saints over Seahawks
  • Patriots over Ravens
  • Rams over Bears

Conference Championship:

  • Chiefs over Patriots
  • Saints over Rams

Super Bowl LIII

  • Saints over Chiefs (Super Bowl MVP: Drew Brees)

As always, every postseason has its own narrative and I tried to craft one here but still couldn’t force too many upsets. I honestly think the Colts can win in KC and same with Baltimore in New England, but I’ll go with home-field advantage in the AFC again. After the two No. 1 seeds squaring off (with the better defense winning and the Drew Brees fanboys celebrating his Super Bowl MVP over Patrick Mahomes’ regular season MVP), my 2nd pick for the Super Bowl would actually be McVay and the Rams beating Belichick and the Patriots. That’d be the second year in a row an NFC team with a second-year head coach outdid the Patriots on the big stage. Then again, I can just as easily see the Bears knocking off the Rams in the divisional round to create a much different McVay narrative (0-2 at home!), but I can’t wait to see how things play out here.

One final look at my 2018 results, which were pretty good on straight up picks at least.

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NFL Week 16 Predictions: 25% Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It’s not the 25% edition because I’m giving a fourth of the effort, nor does it have to do with Christmas. It’s 25% because I feel like only four games on the Week 16 schedule are really worth a damn. At least the NFL ordered them well.

Ravens at Chargers (-4.5)

With Tennessee’s win over the Redskins, this apparently means the Ravens have to win this game or their only way of making the playoffs is to get the AFC North out of Pittsburgh’s clutches. No more wild card possibility. Whether or not this is the penultimate game for the 2018 Ravens, I think the rest of their games bring the same questions. The defense will be fine, but can Lamar Jackson make enough throws in obvious passing situations to sustain enough scoring drives? They’re going to run the ball like crazy, but when a holding penalty happens or a false start and it’s second-and-15 or third-and-8, can Jackson deliver? He also has nine fumbles this year so ball security has been an issue.

The fact that the Ravens had the Chiefs down 24-17 in Kansas City speaks well to the type of team they’re running right now, which is different from most of the NFL. I think they’ll play well tonight, and I don’t fully buy into the Chargers like some are doing after some fortunate comeback wins. However, I think Philip Rivers has been consistent this year and he’ll deliver enough throws to take the Ravens out of their comfort zone with Jackson and he’ll have to play from behind. If this game was in Baltimore I’d definitely pick the Ravens, but alas it is not.

Texans at Eagles (-2)

These two teams have played a ton of close games this season with the Texans often winning and the Eagles often failing in those spots. However, I think you have to still give the Eagles a chance with Nick Foles, who played well again in taking over for Carson Wentz last week. I think when he’s in the game the running game has more breathing room, they use the RPO more, and he gets the wide receivers involved better than Wentz, who locks onto Zach Ertz a lot. Foles will also take some chances on low-percentage deep balls and hit those plays too.

I think Houston is a team with a few mega-talented players (Watson, Hopkins, Watt. Clowney), but some of the depth issues or roster holes prevent them from blowing teams out. Watson also takes too many sacks, and I think playing on the road in Philly with their season basically on the line can be a tough spot for Houston.

Steelers at Saints (-6.5)

Here’s a game that could be impacted by tonight’s outcome in LA. If the Ravens pull off a big upset, then the Steelers better show up for this one, because they’ll need help next week if they’re going to make the playoffs. The Saints have however looked very mortal for a month, especially with the passing game struggling to produce 200 yards with Drew Brees. Of course, the last three games were on the road, though weather wasn’t an issue. I think the Superdome brings out the best in this team, and this is going to be a tough spot for a Pittsburgh defense that is prone to blown coverages and miscommunication. We also know the offense is sloppier on the road, and there are injury concerns with James Conner (out) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (likely to play).

If Ben Roethlisberger wants to remind Cameron Jordan that he’s a HOF lock and brings his A game, then I think the Steelers have the ability to pull this one off on the road. They’re a top 5 scoring team this season too. Part of me just thinks the Ravens will lose tonight, so some Steelers will be finding Tinder girls on Bourbon Street and not really caring about the outcome tomorrow, putting the pressure on beating the Bengals at home next week to claim the division. At the very least, the (in all likelihood) final game between Brees and Ben will hopefully be an entertaining shootout.

Chiefs at Seahawks (+1.5)

This is an intriguing matchup on Sunday night where something has to give:

I look at the total for this game (55 points) and can really see the Seahawks winning 31-24. I think they can gash the run defense of Kansas City, which will limit Patrick Mahomes’ possessions again and force him to be more efficient on the road against what is still a quality defense. Russell Wilson has been mostly strong this season aside from a few games. Under Pete Carroll at home in prime time is a spot where the Seahawks especially shine on defense. I think Seattle ends the KC streak of games with 26 points, albeit by a slim margin, and gets this win.

NFL Week 16 Predictions

Well the hits keep coming after I got the spread wrong for WAS-TEN. I’m taking some chances this week too in expecting some underdogs to cover.

2018Wk16

Yes I really picked the Raiders to win straight up in a game I’m not planning to watch much of.

Wk1-15

NFL Week 16 Predictions: Bah Humbug

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

After basically every favorite won in Week 15, I just can’t help but feel that something really weird is going to happen this week. Weird as Buffalo winning an important game in New England? Probably not, but something has to give here. There are so many matchups where one team is clearly superior to the other, and there is something on the line for that team as well. Yet we know upsets happen all the time even if recent weeks have been pretty upset free outside of NE-MIA.

Something weird would definitely involve Cleveland winning to avoid 0-16, because I don’t see how they win in Pittsburgh in Week 17 when the Steelers almost certainly will have to win that one to keep a first-round bye. The Bears are a lousy team too, so I think this one is possible, and I’d almost expect it if the game was at home. But in Chicago, the weather could be bad, leading to another evenly matched game a la Colts-Bills. The Bears love to run the ball too, and it’s literally the only thing the Browns do well at stopping. So I think the matchup is favorable here, but then I just know DeShone Kizer will have some stupid turnover late and the Browns won’t even cover the spread again.

Speaking of the spread, I still see the Steelers at 10-point favorites in Houston. The Steelers are 1-8 ATS under Mike Tomlin when favored by 10+ on the road. That includes 3-point wins in Cleveland and Indy this year. After last week’s emotional and lingering gut punch, the loss of Antonio Brown, the danger of DeAndre Hopkins against this defense, and the fact that it’s a road game people expect the Steelers to roll through all has me thinking the Texans are going to make this extremely difficult.

Otherwise, I’m not sure there’s much to look forward to this week. I wan to see how Jimmy Garoppolo does against the best pass defense in the league, and how Blake Bortles fares on the road. The Jaguars have already lost to the Jets and Cardinals on the road this year.

Saints-Falcons is usually good, but I think the Saints get this one at home. Alvin Kamara shouldn’t get concussed on the first drive again, and I think Drew Brees will make up for the terrible pick last time. The Atlanta passing game still isn’t clicking on all cylinders.

The marquee game is Seattle at Dallas, an elimination game for teams we expected to make the playoffs. Now maybe just one gets in, and neither has played competent football for any extended stretch this year. But a potential shootout between Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson with Ezekiel Elliott returning from suspension? Yes, I’ll watch that.

2017 Week 16 Predictions

2017Wk16

(Note: MIA ATS, KC SU)

  • Week 1: 8-7
  • Week 2: 11-5
  • Week 3: 9-7
  • Week 4: 8-8
  • Week 5: 6-8
  • Week 6: 6-8
  • Week 7: 11-4
  • Week 8: 12-1
  • Week 9: 6-7
  • Week 10: 12-2 (Spread: 6-8)
  • Week 11: 8-6 (Spread: 8-5-1)
  • Week 12: 12-4 (Spread: 7-9)
  • Week 13: 11-5 (Spread: 10-6)
  • Week 14: 6-10 (Spread: 7-9)
  • Week 15: 14-2 (Spread: 7-6-3)
  • Season: 140-84 (Spread: 45-43-4)

NFL Week 14 Predictions: The Best Week?

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Week 14 just might be the best schedule the NFL has on paper all season. There are six games between teams with at least a .500 record. Maybe more importantly, there just aren’t any real “gimme games” where you can feel very confident that one team is just going to roll over the other. I’m going to quickly go through the remaining 15 games this week to show my concerns with picking a winner.

IND-BUF: Sure, the Colts stink, but they’ve blown five fourth-quarter leads and we don’t know if Tyrod Taylor is good to go. Nathan Peterman and his turnovers could be the key to an Indy win on the road, unless he turns into Rob Johnson vs. Indy.

CHI-CIN: I’d be worried about the Bengals having blown their emotional wad vs. Pittsburgh on Monday night. Chicago is bad, but good enough to pounce on some mistakes for return touchdowns/short fields.

SF-HOU: I can see the headlines already. “49ers 2-0 in close games with Garoppolo at QB.” This would be an interesting game if, you know, Tom Savage wasn’t the Houston QB.

OAK-KC: Trust the Chiefs these days? Impossible, and they already lost a game they should have won against the Raiders this year. Throw in a suspension to Marcus Peters, the return of Michael Crabtree, and I’m hesitant as hell about going with the Chiefs.

DAL-NYG: I believe in teams getting a boost the next game after a major firing, such as getting rid of Ben McAdoo. Add in the return of Eli Manning at quarterback, home field, and the fact that Dak Prescott has struggled to score points on the Giants in three tries. I don’t trust Dallas period these days, but this is a matchup I especially would not trust them in.

DET-TB: I think Matthew Stafford will be fine health wise, but you know I already suck at predicting Tampa Bay games. I can say fade Mike Evans in fantasy (DFS), and he’ll probably go off for 140 yards and 2 TD.

MIN-CAR: I feel oddly confident about the Vikings like I did last week when they won in Atlanta, but Carolina has shown some real quality play at times this season. Just don’t know which Cam will show up, and everyone seems to be waiting for Case Keenum to have that fall back to Earth game, which is certainly possible on the road against a decent defense. But MIN should win.

GB-CLE: Hey, I think this might be the week for the Browns to avoid 0-16. Another big firing (GM Sashi Brown) took place here, and it’s really just a good matchup for Cleveland. The Browns should be able to stop the run, forcing Brett Hundley to throw more. He hasn’t been that consistent or sharp. Meanwhile, Josh Gordon could feast on the secondary. The only concern here is DeShone Kizer, who continues to make crippling turnovers for this offense. But I could already see the headlines for this one too. “Packers expecting a win with Aaron Rodgers coming back next week suffer a huge loss in Cleveland; playoffs much in doubt.” Not my preferred narrative, but just something that I could see happening.

NYJ-DEN: Do you really want to start trusting Josh McCown and the Jets? Sure, they have no doubt been playing better than Denver this year, but doesn’t the losing streak have to stop eventually? The Jets aren’t the Eagles or Patriots. and Mile High is one of the best home-field advantages in the league. I could see some McCown turnovers helping out the struggling Denver offense. Not a game I’d want to bet on.

WAS-LACH: This is another one with a probable narrative. “The Chargers had been playing so well, but choked away another late lead to a Washington team that has now won twice in LA this year, as well as in Seattle.” Redskins had a long time to rest after that shitshow in Dallas. Not sure what we’ll get from them, but they’ve played pretty solid football outside of that game.

TEN-ARI: The Titans are one of the worst 8-4 teams in NFL history, and Arizona can still be competitive at home even with Blaine Gabbert. Bruce Arians should know Dick LeBeau’s scheme well. I’m sure I’ll have to write about this game in Clutch Encounters either way.

SEA-JAC: Oddly enough, this might be the game I feel the best about this week. I just think Seattle will go in there, like the Rams earlier this year, and win the game by making Bortles play bad and cough up turnovers. The Seattle defense is still very good. Not better than Jacksonville’s this year, but I was impressed with the way the Seahawks handled Philadelphia’s front last week to allow Russell Wilson time to make things happen. If they can do that on the road, and it’s not a 10:00 AM body clock game, then they should win this one, underdog status be damned.

PHI-LARM: The game of the week, I suppose, but still a lot of things for both teams to prove. I think Jared Goff’s stats are still as misleading as anyone’s this year, and he’ll have to play well against a very solid defense. Carson Wentz has to clean up the mistakes from last week on the road again, but I think this is a game for the Rams defense to remind us how good they can be too. I’ll take the Rams in a close one at home, but obviously the Eagles winning wouldn’t be any surprise.

BAL-PIT: The Steelers can’t really overlook their main rival for their main obstacle (NE) to a Super Bowl, plus this game is to clinch the AFC North. We know the Steelers play much better at home on offense, especially in prime time. Jimmy Smith being out is a huge loss for the Ravens, which should give Antonio Brown a better chance at a huge night. He might need it with the suspension of JuJu Smith-Schuster. Obviously the loss of Ryan Shazier is big too, and the losses in the secondary (Joe Haden most notably) are troubling for a defense that has started to give up many big plays. If Joe Flacco can throw the ball like he did against Detroit, then we definitely have a game here, but I think the Steelers will take care of business at home. I just don’t feel overly confident about it, because these teams love to split and play 3-point games. The Steelers aren’t going to keep winning every one-score game either.

NE-MIA: I’d say it’s the lock of the week, but no Rob Gronkowski makes things interesting. Not to mention we’ve seen NE go down to Miami and lose when no one expected in 2004, 2006, and 2013-15. Yeah, you say Jay Cutler, but don’t forget about A.J. Feeley (2004) and Joey Harrington (2006). Weird things happen to NE down there. Plus I’ll probably have a ton of money at my fingertips on parlays waiting for the Patriots to give me a Merry Christmas, and they’ll screw me like they always do.

2017 Week 14 Predictions

The Saints quickly ended my dream of a 16-0 week, not like I ever had a shot at that in this particular week.

2017Wk14V2

  • Week 1: 8-7
  • Week 2: 11-5
  • Week 3: 9-7
  • Week 4: 8-8
  • Week 5: 6-8
  • Week 6: 6-8
  • Week 7: 11-4
  • Week 8: 12-1
  • Week 9: 6-7
  • Week 10: 12-2 (Spread: 6-8)
  • Week 11: 8-6 (Spread: 8-5-1)
  • Week 12: 12-4 (Spread: 7-9)
  • Week 13: 11-5 (Spread: 10-6)
  • Season: 120-72 (Spread: 31-28-1)

NFL Week 13 Predictions: The End of an Era

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Pour one out for Eli Manning as his streak of consecutive starts ends at 222 games including playoffs. That’s third all time among quarterbacks behind only Brett Favre (321) and Peyton Manning (227).

I love constants in the NFL, because they help make the most unpredictable league just a little easier to predict. For the better part of 14 seasons, Manning was a constant in New York no matter how erratic his play was. You knew you were getting a volume passer who didn’t take many sacks, could lead the offense to a reasonable amount of points (until recently), and fourth-quarter drama was often high with Eli. I used to say he’d start games like Archie, but could still finish like Peyton. His A game was quite good, but we just never saw it often enough. Fortunately, he brought it against the Patriots in the best moments. It’s for that reason that his Hall of Fame debate is going to rage on for years, but I’m not interested in talking about that right now. This is about the end of an era in New York, because I don’t see how the Giants, who are in full collapse mode, can ever go back to Eli after the way this unfolded.

So which exciting, young quarterback prospect do the Giants have to turn their fortunes to? Oh, it’s Geno bloody Smith, a turnover machine in an era where many turnovers look like bad bounces more than anything. That’s not going to accomplish anything for this team this year, so here’s hoping the Giants find a new head coach and a new quarterback for 2018 to quickly turn this thing in another direction. Manning deserved a better ending than this.

Another era that begins this week that may have some staying power is Jimmy Garoppolo making his first start for the 49ers. Similar to the Giants right now, the 49ers don’t have much going in the way of a supporting cast, so I wouldn’t expect much, though beating the lowly Bears isn’t out of the question. I’d avoid that game in bets this week. There are quite a few I’d avoid actually, but also some teams I really like (Patriots, Steelers, Rams, Jaguars to name a few).

Vikings at Falcons

I think it’s safe to say that this is the top game on paper this week. Both teams have been playing well as of late, though I think the Vikings have been a bit better all season long. Minnesota is just as good as the other NFC teams that get a lot of attention this year (Eagles, Saints, and Rams). I think the reason Minnesota gets less attention is the quarterback situation. Drew Brees’ name speaks for itself, while the typical “build up a young QB into a superstar ASAP” is at work for Jared Goff and Carson Wentz.

People don’t want to believe in Case Keenum, but it’s December and he ranks No. 1 in DVOA thanks in large part to the way he’s making plays under pressure and avoiding sacks. The latter is certainly a quarterback skill that is highly repeatable, and the fact that Minnesota’s OL is holding up enough for him speaks wonders about the turnaround job they’ve done after 2016’s terrible unit let the team down. Not only are Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs the best WR duo going this year, but Jerick McKinnon and Latavius Murray have formed a pretty solid backfield after the team lost rookie Dalvin Cook so early. This is an impressive offense and the defense under Mike Zimmer is one of the best units in the league. This team is very balanced. I still think Atlanta is too offensive dependent, and Matt Ryan is still taking big sacks that kill drives. While Julio Jones went off last week, this isn’t Tampa Bay. He’ll see plenty of Xavier Rhodes in a good matchup. Meanwhile, I think the injuries in the secondary for Atlanta are big for Minnesota to take advantage of.

I like the Vikings in a close one.

Eagles at Seahawks

I’m honestly not sure this game will be that good to watch on Sunday night. More interested than anything in what the final margin ends up being given that the Eagles have won four in a row by 23+ points, and Seattle just almost never gets blown out. The Seahawks haven’t lost a home game by more than 7 points since a 2011 game against Cincinnati (pre-Russell Wilson). The Eagles haven’t been tested much, especially on the road. Five of their last seven games have been at home actually, so this is a step up in competition. It’s just that Seattle isn’t quite the same when there’s no RB/running game, and no Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor or Cliff Avril on defense.

That’s why Wilson has a pretty strong MVP case if he can finish well with a tough schedule ahead. He has to do so much for this team right now, and that’s why I think this is a bad matchup for the Seahawks since I think the pass rush is going to rack up a lot of sacks in blowing past this offensive line. No one really runs on the Eagles this year to begin with, and Seattle has the worst non-QB rushing of any team this season. So you pin a low point total to the Seahawks, maybe some turnovers that give the Eagles more good field position, and I think Philadelphia takes this one on the road.

2017 Week 13 Predictions

Well, Washington shit its pants on Thursday night. I wasn’t confident about picking that game either way, but that was a really poor performance all around from the Redskins. And to think some people on Twitter scoffed when I said Dallas would score 16 points (scored 38).

2017Wk13

  • Week 1: 8-7
  • Week 2: 11-5
  • Week 3: 9-7
  • Week 4: 8-8
  • Week 5: 6-8
  • Week 6: 6-8
  • Week 7: 11-4
  • Week 8: 12-1
  • Week 9: 6-7
  • Week 10: 12-2 (Spread: 6-8)
  • Week 11: 8-6 (Spread: 8-5-1)
  • Week 12: 12-4 (Spread: 7-9)
  • Season: 109-67 (Spread: 21-22-1)

2016 NFL Divisional Round Predictions

~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

I always say the divisional round is my favorite weekend of the NFL year. My past reasoning was that we get four playoff games matching the (typically) best teams of the season against four teams coming off a playoff win. However, it is a round where home-field advantage is the strongest, with the home team winning over 71 percent of the time compared to 63 percent in the Wild Card and 66 percent in the Conference Championship Game.

This week I figured out the real reason I think I love this weekend: the despair. While 2017 has gotten off to a pretty incredible start for me personally, I am a pessimistic person. So the cynic in me just loves to focus on the games where the home team choked in the divisional round. The dream seasons that died in an instant. While the other rounds have so many notable classic playoff moments, the divisional round is probably best known for epic home chokejobs. Think of Red-Right 88, 1996 Jaguars-Broncos, 2005 Steelers-Colts, 2007 Giants-Cowboys, 2010 Jets shocking New England, Rahim Moore on Jacoby Jones, etc. You remember the moments when the home team did not come through.

You can pretty much count on one home team to lose this weekend, but I think we have three fantastic games that could go either way, and one piece of shit to endure.

Seattle at Atlanta

Maybe he’s not dominating the headlines just because he is Matt Ryan, but I don’t think any other player is under more pressure to perform well this week. Ryan’s 1-4 in the playoffs, and the lone win was a home game against the Seahawks in 2012. That came on a late game-winning drive after Atlanta blew a 27-7 4Q lead. The Seahawks are tough, and #AllRussellWilsonGamesEndUpCloseEventually. Of course, you don’t know which Seattle team will show up anymore, and the offense has really struggled on the road. I still think Jimmy Graham and Doug Baldwin, combined with Wilson’s scrambling and playmaking are enough to give this Atlanta D some fits. I also think C.J. Prosise could be a big boost if he makes his return from injury, because receiving backs have been very productive against the Falcons’ young defense this season. But this game is really about Ryan continuing his MVP season — at least 7.91 YPA in every game — against a defense that dearly misses Earl Thomas. It’s also a scheme that Dan Quinn knows well, and it’s a defense that Ryan has had some of the best success against over the last six years.

I really wanted a rematch of this one after the Week 6 game ended, a game where I think DPI was clearly missed on Seattle that could have led to a Matt Bryant game-winning field goal. The fact that Atlanta hit big plays and got Julio Jones heavily involved in Seattle with Earl Thomas active is a good sign that the Falcons can have success again on offense. They’ll have to I think, because I see Wilson putting up at least 24 on this D in what could be the highest-scoring game this weekend. The Seahawks will be thankful for the start time not being 10:00 A.M. PST, but I think Atlanta gets off to a good start and puts the pressure on Seattle to play from behind, which can help Vic Beasley and the pass rush get through Seattle’s known weakness: the OL.

Final: Seahawks 24, Falcons 30

Houston at New England

Usually when you watch a playoff game, you can at least think of a feasible way for the underdog to win. In this one, I can’t think of any way Houston wins this game that wouldn’t involve a total fluke or some massive chokejob by the Patriots. Bill Belichick is not going to have his team put up a no-show performance either. This isn’t so much about New England’s greatness, because I don’t think this team is better than the 2014 and 2015 versions, especially without Rob Gronkowski available, but this is about how bad Houston is.

9-7? DOESN’T MATTER, BRIAN. YOU PLAYED IN THE AFC SOUTH

PLAYOFF WIN? DOESN’T MATTER BRIAN, YOU GOT THE OVERRATED RAIDERS WITH CONNOR COOK PISSING HIS PANTS

But you can see how this would satisfy the requirements to be the biggest NFL upset since the 1970 merger if Houston did win.

HOW DO YOU LOSE TO A TEAM THAT JACOBY BRISSETT BEAT 27-0 IN HIS FIRST START?

Oh, it would be hilarious to see Brock Osweiler move to 2-0 against Tom Brady, knocking him out at home before he turns 40 in what looks like a cakewalk Super Bowl year for this team. But how the hell does it happen? Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus would have to completely dominate this game and get multiple turnovers from Brady much the way the Ravens did in the 2009 AFC Wild Card game. I doubt that happens. I also don’t see how Houston scores more than 14 points, and that might be kind. They were already shutout in this building once this year.

I expect the Patriots to lead by 17+ points at some point in this game, but I’m not sure they cover. Garbage-time scores count too, folks.

Final: Texans 16, Patriots 31

Green Bay at Dallas

Reminder: the Dallas Cowboys, America’s Team, has not been to the NFC Championship Game since the 1995 season.

I don’t think that changes this year either. I’ve been picking nothing but home teams this postseason, but this is where I go with the road team. Out of all the matchups, this is the one where I worry most about momentum vs. rust. Some might view it as early mediocrity vs. rest, and Dallas already beat GB convincingly on the road this season. But the Packers have been in playoff mode since starting 4-6, and Aaron Rodgers is back to playing high-caliber football that few QBs could ever match. The Cowboys haven’t tried to win a game since the day after Christmas, and this is the first playoff start for rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. I don’t think the situation will be too big for them, but you never know how a player will respond to that pressure. Odell Beckham Jr. didn’t fare too well a week ago in a matchup he should have been able to dominate against Green Bay’s battered secondary.

The loss of Jordy Nelson is significant, but you should know I don’t put too much credit on star wideouts. The Cowboys were able to score 30 in Green Bay without Dez Bryant, and I would have said Bryant was more valuable to Dallas than Nelson was to GB due to the presence of Randall Cobb (great last week) and Davante Adams (Cowboys fans remember him well from two years ago). This is also a good matchup for Jared Cook, and someone like Geronimo Allison can be the Jeff Janis this year for the PAckers and step up in Nelson’s absence. The Packers still have weapons, and they still have an OL that can allow Rodgers to move around forever before finding an open receiver. The Cowboys are healthy on D, but simply have not been a SB-caliber unit at any time this season. They give up too many completions and don’t get enough pressure or takeaways. I was surprised at just how many bad plays Rodgers made in Week 6 in watching the game again Friday afternoon, but he has been playing much better since that point. I also noticed some DB’s falling for Green Bay on Dallas completions. It was a sloppy game.

I think the game will be lower scoring than expected, and I do see some struggles coming for Prescott in his playoff debut. Leaning on Elliott will be crucial, and I’m sure Bryant would love some revenge for the catch call two years ago, but I like Green Bay here.

Final: Packers 27, Cowboys 21

Pittsburgh at Kansas City

I wrote about 4300 words on this game at FO, so please check that out. Basically, if the Le’Veon Bell has a big game and Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t turn the ball over, Pittsburgh should be in good shape to win. However, I just think the Chiefs are going to get those takeaways to win a close one, and that Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are way more involved with the offense than they were in that Week 4 disaster at Pittsburgh. The change of venue will matter, and I think moving the start time to night because of weather will rile up the crowd even more under the lights, putting more pressure on Pittsburgh to communicate effectively in the no-huddle offense. This should be a great game.

Final: Steelers 17, Chiefs 20

Season recap

  • Week 1: 7-9
  • Week 2: 10-6
  • Week 3: 8-8
  • Week 4: 8-7
  • Week 5: 7-7
  • Week 6: 12-3
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Week 8: 7-6
  • Week 9: 8-5
  • Week 10: 7-7
  • Week 11: 12-2
  • Week 12: 12-4
  • Week 13: 10-5
  • Week 14: 9-7
  • Week 15: 12-4
  • Week 16: 9-7
  • Week 17: 11-5
  • Wild Card: 4-0
  • Season: 163-97