Tag: Steelers

NFL Week 17 Predictions: Making History Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I would say this regular season has gone quickly, but it feels like eons ago when Antonio Brown caught a touchdown for the Patriots down in Miami. Things have changed a lot since and we only have four of the 12 playoff seeds locked up going into this final Sunday. A whopping four teams can still win the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

With some teams probably mailing in this last game, I’d save my money and look to bet big on the playoffs. Here are some musings on the history we could see happen on Sunday.

Top-Heavy Season

It’s been a season of the haves and the have nots. The AFC could have just five teams with a winning record if the Steelers (8-7) and Titans (8-7) don’t beat Baltimore and Houston teams that should be resting key players. The same thing can happen in the NFC if the Eagles (8-7) and Rams (8-7) don’t win. At best we’ll have 14 teams with a winning record, the fewest since 2015 (13). You’d have to go back to top-heavy 2011 to find a season with 12 winning teams.

Jameis Winston: 30 for 30

Jameis Winston can make history by having the first season in NFL history with 30 TD passes and 30 interceptions. He has 31 TD and 28 INT going into tomorrow and should surpass 5,000 passing yards to lead the league. If anyone could do it, it’s Jameis. He should be up to 29 after the first drive. Then it’s just a matter of chasing infamy.

Three Stooges Alert

The Buffalo Bills (10-5) are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC and have little reason to go full throttle against the Jets. However, if they win this game and finish 11-5, it will trigger a little history for the Three Stooges of the AFC East. It’ll be the first time since realignment in 2002 that the Patriots had a division rival win 11 games without their help. The 2008 Dolphins finished 11-5, but one of those wins was against the Patriots (Wildcat game). The 2010 Jets finished 11-5, but one of those wins was against the Patriots. The Bills could get to 11-5 even after getting swept by the Patriots.

We’ll see if the Bills can come anywhere close to the 2010 Jets’ playoff run. The Jets haven’t returned to the playoffs since.

CLE/JAX: Don’t Promote from Within

It’s possible Freddie Kitchens (Browns) and Doug Marrone (Jaguars) could coach their last game for their team on Sunday. It reminds me of this tweet about promoting an interim coach or someone already on the staff to head coach. It’s usually a bad idea.

Patriots Defense

As expected, New England’s historic defense slowed down once the schedule put some good QBs/offenses on the field. But few teams have had much success against them this year. The Patriots go into the final game allowing 198 points on the season. Their most dominant game of the year was the 43-0 win in Miami in Week 2. If they can pitch a shutout again, they’ll become just the second team since 2001 to allow fewer than 200 points in a season. The 2002 Buccaneers allowed 196 points. If they just allow a field goal they’ll be tied with the 2006 Ravens (201) for the second fewest allowed.

As long as the Patriots don’t allow 25 points at home to Ryan Fitzpatrick, they’ll have the best scoring defense of any team since 2007.

Saints Eyeing 75/150

Michael Thomas already broke Marvin Harrison’s record of 143 catches in a season with 145. He just needs five to become the first player with 150 catches in a season. Drew Brees can break the single-season completion record for the third year in a row, becoming the first player to exceed 75% (he’s at 75.3%).

Golladay: The Last Hope?

It’s been a weird fantasy season with a lot of big names disappointing. Passing touchdowns are down a little, so it’s not that surprising to see receiving touchdowns down as well for the leading receivers.

Detroit’s Kenny Golladay leads the NFL with 11 touchdown catches. If that number holds through Sunday, it’ll be the first non-strike season in the NFL since 1975 that no one caught more than 11.

Steelers at Ravens: Not Meaningless

A bit more than pride is on the line for the Steelers and Ravens despite Baltimore resting key starters, including likely MVP winner Lamar Jackson. The Steelers need a win and help to make the playoffs. They also need to not lose by more than a field goal to extend their streak of .500 seasons with a positive scoring differential to 16 years. That would tie for the third-longest streak in NFL history. Only the 1965-1983 Cowboys (19 years) and 2001-2019 Patriots (19 years) have longer streaks.

The Ravens also need just 93 rushing yards to break the single-season record held by the 1978 Patriots (3,165). That should be easy with a running QB (Robert Griffin) and a gameplan that should try to run the clock faster than anything. It’s not like the Ravens need this win. The 1948 49ers actually rushed for 3,653 yards in 14 games, but that’s not the official record because the AAFC doesn’t count.

49ers at Seahawks: Playoffs Start Early

Sunday Night Football has the pleasure of giving us 49ers-Seahawks to end the regular season. It was a wild overtime finish last time, won by Seattle. Both teams are in the playoffs regardless, but this is still a huge game since a win would give the 49ers the No. 1 seed and next week off. Lose and they’re the No. 5 seed with Seattle likely sliding into No. 3. If you think the 49ers are the team of destiny this year, then they really need to come through and win this one in a building they haven’t won in since Russell Wilson was drafted (0-8).

Wilson, starting with that SF game, has not been as sharp over the last six games. Seattle has dropped two of the last three games and actually have three losses by 14+ points this year. The 49ers are 3.5-point favorites on the road here.

Due to the 49ers shockingly losing to the Falcons a few weeks ago, this game is still important to the team even if they did make a better decision in the first matchup. Remember when the 49ers had a chance to run out the clock and take a tie with Seattle, but threw three incomplete passes and watched Wilson drive for the win? At the time I thought it could be a huge blow to their chances of getting the No. 1 seed:

Had the 49ers taken the tie, they likely would have the division already clinched. They still would have needed to win this one to get homefield advantage, but the division wouldn’t be up for grabs like it is now.

The Seahawks are looking for their 12th win despite outscoring their schedule by 12 points this year. It’s been a great year for Wilson and the 49ers have been declining on defense as injuries pile up, but I still think I’m going to go with San Francisco to pull it off and earn the No. 1 seed.

NFL Week 17 Predictions

This is not the slate I want to try finish over .500 for, but I have some decent faith in the Browns, Colts, Falcons and Rams ending their season on a high note. I can also see Drew Lock edging the Raiders by a FG at home in Denver. I think the Chiefs keep rolling with this defense through the Chargers.

2019Wk17

For next season I’m probably going to move to a model approach to make my picks instead of going from the gut.

2019Wk1-16

NFL Week 12 Predictions: RC Cola Popping Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

So last week kind of sucked in the NFL, which was my concern going into last Sunday. The early afternoon slate was especially low on drama. A total of six teams won by at least 17 points in Week 11, the most since Week 17 last year. Some teams clearly mailed in their performance to end that season, so this was especially one-sided.

When I look at the 1 P.M. slate for Week 12, I see very little to get excited for. My preference would be to just watch Seahawks-Eagles with some RedZone sprinkled in, because it’s one of the closest games of the season by many projection models. Could be a true pick ’em with a Seattle team that’s been scraping by all the close ones against an Eagles team that can stop the run and should be desperately playing to hang onto division title hopes.

But instead I’ll probably be focusing on the Steelers looking to continue their mastery in Cincinnati, or perhaps add another soul-crushing loss to a terrible team to Mike Tomlin’s resume.

Steelers at Bengals (+6.5): Don’t Bet on 0-16

It’s a safe bet to pick a team to NOT go 0-16 in the NFL. Only the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns have done it. Meanwhile, 10 teams have finished 1-15 and 32 teams have finished 2-14 since 1978. The 0-10 Bengals have a favorable schedule coming up for a win, but none may be sweeter than this opportunity against Pittsburgh (5-5).

I’ve probably been writing about this for a decade now,  but Mike Tomlin’s Steelers love to come up small in the small games, especially on the road against teams they’re expected to beat. Losing to the 0-10 Bengals as a 6.5 point underdog would certainly fit that bill. Since 2007, the Steelers are 16-9 (.640) straight up and 8-17 (.320) against the spread on the road as a 6+ point favorite.

It’s a bit surprising the Steelers remain a 6.5 point favorite. They beat the Bengals 27-3 at Heinz Field earlier this season, but they won’t have QB1 (Ben Roethlisberger), RB1 (James Conner), or WR1 (JuJu Smith-Schuster) for this game. You’d have to go back to 1999, if not further, to find a Pittsburgh offense this devoid of talent, and I’m saying that even with the consideration of the RB and WR returning soon. Oh, not to mention the center is suspended.

Yes, Mason Rudolph has already won a game against the Bengals, but he is coming off one of the worst QB performances of the season. There’s also obviously some controversy surrounding him from his role in the Myles Garrett incident. There’s no Maurkice Pouncey at center because of his suspension from the fight. The Steelers are going to rely heavily on defense to win this game, which it can do with the way it has gotten turnovers this year. Andy Dalton was also sacked a career-high 8 times in the last meeting. Ryan Finley has taken over and done nothing to really impress anyone. He’s not afraid to scramble though. The Bengals have been competitive at times with 3 blown fourth quarter leads, and the running game has gone for over 150 yards in consecutive weeks. It’s likely to be a game decided by turnovers.

One of the most stunning stats I’ve ever seen in the NFL is this one: ex-Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis was 2-16 at home against the Steelers. Rookie head coach Zac Taylor has done practically nothing to establish a name for himself this season, but reversing that home trend and pulling off an upset win over the Steelers would easily be the team’s highlight this year.

With the Steelers lacking so much talent on offense, I feel like this is a great upset to pick. Keep the RC Cola bottles ready, Detroit and Cleveland. Your 0-16 club may be closing up membership for at least another year very soon.

GOTW: Cowboys at Patriots (-3)

It sure would be nice if this turns out to be a great game seeing as how Jags-Titans is the only other game scheduled for the late afternoon. I’m not sure how that happened, but clearly the NFL wants to milk what should be Brady/Belichick vs. Dallas for the last time.

Standing in the Cowboys’ way is The Clapper (Jason Garrett). The thought of him outsmarting Belichick is why I have no issue picking the Patriots in this one, but there are reasons to be optimistic about Dallas’ chances. Concern is do they run Zeke too much and put Dak Prescott in tough third-and-long situations. It could be tempting to run if you look at the success Cleveland and Baltimore had doing so against New England this year. If it’s working you really can’t knock it, but Dallas will have to be careful to not fall into the trap of continuing to slam Elliott into the line on so many early downs.

This is the best pass defense Prescott has seen in his NFL career. He’s playing better than ever this season, but he’ll definitely have to bring his A game to succeed in this one. If the Patriots want to take Amari Cooper away with Stephon Gilmore, then I think Dallas is still fine in this matchup. Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb are healthy and playing well. The tight ends can contribute as well. Cooper only had 38 yards in Detroit last week, but Dak still threw for 444. Dallas (52.1%) is the only offense in the league converting more than 50% on third down in 2019. That’s helped this offense lead the league in yards per game, yards per play and first downs per game thru Week 11. This offense has evolved thanks to the progression of a young QB and new OC Kellen Moore.

I just worry about this coaching staff preparing for a team they only see once every four years. The Cowboys have another game like that on Thanksgiving against Buffalo, so a lot of eyes will be on them this week. It’s the type of week that could launch Dak on an MVP path, or sink this team’s season if the Eagles can go on a run too.

The Patriots have really only played four teams of note this season: PIT, BUF, BAL, PHI. Everyone else has a losing record. If you look at the expected points added breakdown on Pro Football Reference, their three worst games on offense were against PHI/BAL/BUF. Their four worst games on defense were against BUF/PIT/PHI/BUF. Dallas has played a similarly weak schedule (plays the AFC East and NFC East), but this is one of the best challenges the Patriots will see all year. Dallas doesn’t have a great defense, but it has been respectable most weeks.

I don’t want to belabor the point about NE’s mediocre offense, because it should be obvious at this point. They basically peaked in the first two weeks of the season when they played a Pittsburgh defense they always murder at home and a Miami team that was completely lost. Since then the offense has rarely been good. Brady’s TD% is a career low 3.5% right now. Replacing Rob Gronkowski with an ancient Ben Watson isn’t doing a whole lot. They’ve already gone through Antonio Brown and Josh Gordon. It’s basically Julian Edelman moving the chains and their big plays are coming down to James White turning a screen pass into 30+ yards.

Only the Patriots can trade a 2nd-round pick for a 30-year-old WR who was averaging a career-low in yards per catch and have people think it’s a great move. That’s Mohamed Sanu and now he’s injured and may not even be active. Oh and the Patriots stink at running the ball this year to boot. I’d love to see Dallas just double up on Edelman and shrink the field, forcing Brady to beat them deep.

New England basically loses one home game a year and blow one 4Q lead a year, so if there’s a game on the schedule where that’s most likely to happen this season, it’s probably this one. However, keep in mind that Dallas is 0-3 at 4QC opportunities this season as we knew regression was going to come in that area for them. Still, you can trust Dak on a game-winning drive opportunity. The Patriots offense has yet to have one this season since the defense always has them ahead, and they couldn’t do any better than trail by 10 in their lone loss in Baltimore.

I think this one goes down to the final drive, but I’m still going to take Belichick over Garrett every time.

NFL Week 12 Predictions

I had Houston by 6 points on TNF, but of course they wouldn’t kick a late FG and only won by 3. I should probably feel lucky that the Texans even won that game.

2019Wk12

The Bengals are not my only upset pick this week. I think the Jets take care of Oakland in the early game after showing some life offensively last week. I also have the Buccaneers beating Atlanta for no good reason other than the NFC South doesn’t make sense right now, but I still don’t believe the Falcons have magically fixed their defense the last two weeks.

2019Wk1-11

NFL Week 2 Predictions: Mono vs. Stereo Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

My gut still tells me Week 2 is arguably the hardest to predict in a season since you’re trying to weigh your preseason expectations with that 1/16th of reality from a week ago. What’s real and what’s opponent-based fluff? Some injuries are already real this year, and that can change things for  teams, but I want to see if Lamar Jackson is the new sophomore demigod QB, if the Browns are actually still disappointing, and if the Bears just had another one of their one-year wonder seasons in 2018.

Frankly, there’s a lot of stuff I want to see pan out, so let’s just go over a few select Week 2 games.

Vikings at Packers (-3)

Is the Green Bay defense really that improved, or was Mitchell Trubisky just god-awful bad in Week 1? Can the Packers even prepare much for the Minnesota passing offense after Kirk Cousins threw just 10 passes last week? This was a fantastic game in Lambeau last year that ended in a tie. The Vikings had horrible special teams that day and I felt like Cousins outplayed Rodgers and should have got the win. I’m going with this improved Minnesota team to put the clamps on Rodgers again and for the Vikings to get the upset road win.

Patriots at Dolphins (+19)

A-Fucking-C East I tell ya. What a legacy this division has behind the Patriots. Last year it was Buffalo as a 16.5-point underdog in Week 3 to Minnesota, but the Bills actually won that game. Now the Patriots are a 19-point favorite in Miami, the biggest spread in September since the Seahawks were a 20-point favorite against the 2013 Jaguars (Seattle won 45-17).

Teams favored by more than 14 points in September are 6-14-2 ATS and 18-4 SU since 1978.

As for the Patriots specifically (all months), they are 0-5 ATS when favored by more than 17 points. All but one of those games came in the 2007 season. It’s still worth mentioning that the Patriots are 10-1 ATS when favored by 15.5 to 17 points since 2001. That’s an excellent record as the only game they didn’t cover was the 2008 opener when Tom Brady tore his ACL against the Chiefs.

So the Patriots usually don’t cover spreads this large, and I think -19 should piss every person off in Miami. Of course, that’s assuming anyone there still gives a damn after a housecleaning offseason and a 59-10 destruction last week when they made the Baltimore passing offense look all world and even were destroyed on the ground as well in one of the worst openers ever for a team.

The 2019 Dolphins might be looking to set a record for least effort in a season in NFL history.

Now Belichick’s former assistants have had some success against him, including wins by Eric Mangini (2006 Jets), Josh McDaniels (2009 Broncos) and Matt Patricia (2018 Lions) in the past. Mike Vrabel (2018 Titans) also got a big win over his former head coach last year. The problem with Brian Flores is I just don’t think he’s cut out for this job and his team seems to be quitting on him in record time. I originally thought in my season preview that this would be Miami’s lone highlight of the season as Ryan Fitzpatrick would throw for 350 and the Patriots would drop another shocker in Miami. However, after the way these teams played last week I just can’t see that happening, and we haven’t even mentioned the destructive force named Antonio Brown, who still has some hours to cause another ruckus and not actually make his team debut.

With or without Brown, the Patriots are going to win this game with ease, though I think I’d be all over the “Patriots win by 19-24” bet in this one as I can see it being very close to the Vegas mark.

Seattle at Pittsburgh (-3.5)

I think it’s an advantage for Pittsburgh to get the Seahawks at 10:00 A.M. PST, because I remember the 2007 and 2011 meetings where the Steelers caught them sleepwalking early, winning 21-0 and 24-0 in seasons that still resulted in the postseason for Seattle.

However, those teams didn’t have Russell Wilson at QB. The good news for Pittsburgh is that the Seahawks still insist on running the ball so much on early downs, leading to Wilson having to be a magician on 3rd down and in the 4th quarter. We know he can be, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this game comes down to the final play, but I think the Pittsburgh defense will play much better at home this week against a more old-school offense. We know the Pittsburgh offense also plays better at home generally, and it’s hard to not do better than the 3-point output last week. I think people selling this offense after one game in NE are premature. The Steelers had four drives in a row where they just needed a yard to continue and failed every time by calling really stupid plays or not holding onto the ball. Donte Moncrief had a horrific debut and the Steelers have to get Vance McDonald and James Washington more involved. I think JuJu Smith-Schuster will be fine and Ben Roethlisberger should like what he saw with Andy Dalton throwing for over 400 yards against the new Seattle secondary (in Seattle even) last week.

I had the Steelers winning in Week 2 last year, but Patrick Mahomes carved them up with 6 TD passes. I don’t think Wilson will be allowed to be that great in this spot, but I still think the Steelers are in a dangerous spot to fall to 0-2 here if they aren’t sharp early. I can see this coming down to a last-second field goal win or a straight up loss. Also, Wilson has only lost 4 games out of 126 by more than 9 points. That’s why I love the teaser with Seattle +9.5.

Chiefs at Raiders (+7)

I would put the Chiefs on upset alert this week as they go on the road for the second game in a row. Tyreek Hill is out and Patrick Mahomes was limited a bit after an injury scare in Jacksonville. He didn’t attack deep and may not do much without Hill active as well. I still think he’ll keep his points streak (26+ in every game) alive, but Derek Carr can score on this defense too. He has the last couple of years at home and looked good last week as well. I won’t pick the Raiders to win, but I like them to cover.

Bears at Broncos (+2)

In my season preview I thought this was a lock for Denver at home, but now I’m not so sure after how these teams played last week. Sure, Trubisky and the offense sucked, but the defense still looked 2018 caliber. That’s bad news since Joe Flacco still looked 2013-2018 caliber, and the vaunted Denver pass rush did absolutely nothing against Oakland. Now the game does switch to Mile High where the Broncos are amazing in September, and Vic Fangio should know the Bears very well after being there for four seasons. So I still like some of those matchups, and I will admit that while Flacco was no fun to watch, he finished with a fair stat line and even had an easy TD dropped.

So I think I’m still leaning towards Denver at home, but it’s nowhere near the lock I felt it was going to be. I guess it basically comes down to which struggling QB do you expect to fold more against an elite pass rusher (Mack or Von).

Browns at Jets (+7)

This was a fun game last year as it turned out to be Baker Mayfield’s NFL debut (off the bench). It could have been even better this year if these two teams were looking to turn the tide an AFC where New England and Pittsburgh have reigned for so long. Of course, it’s only Week 2 and this looks like a shitshow already. The Browns were embarrassed at home by Tennessee last week and the Jets blew a 16-0 lead to Buffalo and lost Sam Darnold to mono.

Good luck, Adam Gase. You’re starting Trevor Siemian, though it’s hard to think he can be any worse than Darnold’s dink-and-dunk performance a week ago. The Jets also lost Quincy Enunwa for the whole year again, and there are other notable injuries with C.J. Mosley and Le’Veon Bell banged up.

The spread still looks a little high here as I’m not sure we can trust the Browns just yet, especially on the road where they almost never win this decade. Sure, it’s the Baker era and things are different, but as last week showed, they haven’t earned our trust just yet.

NFL Week 2 Predictions

I tend to believe in regression to the mean almost to a fault. So when I start a season 12-4 ATS, I expect a bloodbath in Week 2 to even things out. As I went over in the above games, not a lot of confidence flowing here, but these are my picks:

2019Wk2

 

I loved Panthers by 1-6 on TNF, and it likely would have worked if they called a QB sneak with Cam instead of the atrocity they used on 4th-and-inches.

2019wk1a

NFL Week 1 Predictions: Awards and WTF, AB?

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Normally I would start this by making my predictions for individual awards this season, but Saturday blew that up with some unsettling news that likely would have changed my season predictions on Thursday had it happened sooner.

WTF, AB?

Antonio Brown has a third team this calendar year after getting released by Oakland and signed very quickly by the Patriots on Saturday. I know Mike Tomlin believes the standard is the standard, but why does it feel like 31 teams continue to uphold the standard that the Patriots are brilliant because everyone else is so dumb?

It’s not that I want to be a conspiracy theorist, but something reeks here and I’m far from the only one smelling it. Tampering might be putting it lightly. I’ve seen conspiracies tracing as far back as the end of last season that Brown finessed his way out of Pittsburgh to get to his true destination of New England, but I don’t buy that. However, the Venn diagram of people who think Colin Kaepernick isn’t blackballed by the NFL and people who think New England only got in touch with AB late Saturday afternoon is a perfect circle.

There’s no way something shady didn’t happen here, and 31 teams should be pissed about that. “The Patriot Way” is really just BS media code for “Doing anything they can to win at all costs, even if it includes flat-out cheating.”

The Steelers were never going to trade AB to New England, their main nemesis in the AFC. There was talk in March of a trade to Buffalo, another team that would never trade AB to NE in the same division, but that reportedly never got close and AB didn’t want to go there.

So Oakland became the perfect patsy for AB to exploit this summer. First it was the frostbitten foot in cryotherapy. The Raiders supported him as he missed time for that. Then came the helmet story where he threatened to retire if he couldn’t play in his old helmet. The team supported that when AB filed his grievance with the league, which failed. He was a major distraction in August, even getting an ultimatum at one point from GM Mike Mayock that he’s either with the team or he’s out. AB was in, but things only got dicier this week when after posting a letter of a team fine, Brown reportedly called Mayock a “cracker” and swore at him before Vontaze Burfict had to hold him back. Even after Crackergate the team stood by him and Jon Gruden said AB will play Monday night. That didn’t stop AB from posting a well-crafted video on Friday night that included a recorded phone conversation with Gruden. A larger fine came that would void AB’s nearly $30 million in guaranteed money. So by Saturday, AB asked for his release and the Raiders had enough of this shit and granted it. For some reason AB had a camera crew recording the moment he got his release as well. Nope, nothing fishy there. A few hours later he was signed by the Patriots on a one-year deal worth up to $15 million. Somehow this was expected by everyone in the free world except the other 29 NFL teams. AB had plenty of Pro-Patriot social media posts ready for that occasion as well. Again, totally normal day.

When Robert Kraft is the owner and Drew Rosenhaus is the player agent, that’s a lot of slime involved. I’d suggest they could have done a deal under the table, but we know Kraft likes to operate above the table. AB has been acting up for a couple of years in Pittsburgh, though nothing to the level of the last month in Oakland. Should he suddenly clean up his act on social media and become a good foot soldier for Belichick, the whole thing will reek of a storyline only Vince McMahon could cook up in his prime.

Pat McAfee summed it up well in case you missed it:

https://twitter.com/360FFB/status/1170443674259529729

So on the eve of the first Sunday of the season, the Patriots go from Super Bowl favorite to…stronger Super Bowl favorite? What, is Gronk going to come out of retirement after Thanksgiving to chase a 19-0 season now? The pathetic division wasn’t enough. The soft schedule that features their toughest games at home wasn’t enough. Now they get to add one of the most talented receivers in the world to an offense that already has one of those (Josh Gordon), plus the uncoverable slot machine who was MVP of the Super Bowl (Julian Edelman).

Frankly, Saturday lowered my interest in the season and in a league where one team always seems to pants everyone else. The only saving grace is that Brown and Gordon aren’t the most reliable guys in the league, Brady is 42, and it is a long season. It’s not like star wideouts are winning championships left and right this decade. AB is more likely to be 2012 Brandon Lloyd than 2007 Randy Moss for this offense. It’s not like Brady’s arm is what it was 12 years ago, nor are the go routes ever his thing. But the potential of it all is scary if he and Gordon stay on the right path.

But in AB’s case, it’s a path that almost certainly took some turns through shady places to get him from Pittsburgh to New England.

c3ae1d06-a27f-4432-951b-3e6c0241fd50_screenshot

NFL 2019 Awards Predictions

As I said the other day I was going to go all in on the Colts for some of these picks, including Andrew Luck as MVP/OPOY and Frank Reich for COY. But that sure blew up in a hurry.

  • Most Valuable Player: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
  • Coach of the Year: Freddie Kitchens, Browns
  • Assistant Coach of the Year: Keith Butler, Steelers
  • Offensive Player of the Year: Julio Jones, Falcons
  • Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt, Texans
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year: Devin Singletary, Bills
  • Defensive Rookie of the Year: Josh Allen, Jaguars
  • Comeback Player of the Year: Le’Veon Bell, Jets

I want to explain a few of these.

MVP: Mahomes is at a disadvantage in that 2018 was so amazing for him it’ll be hard to repeat or improve on those numbers. MVPs have been won in clusters before, though usually the stronger stat year comes second. Think Peyton twice (2004>2003, 2009>2008) as the last two times it’s happened. However, I just think the kid is so talented and off to this amazing start that he can turn in another unbelievable season in that offense. I also just don’t care for the alternatives with the ages of Brady and Brees, and Carson Wentz is one of the favorites but I just have never seen the MVP-caliber performance from him before. I think Mahomes will have the lack of a defense on his side again as the Chiefs look to get another first-round bye. I’m very excited to see how he plays this season because it’s hard to say he’s yet to have a bad game thru 19 starts.

OPOY: As for why I didn’t pick Mahomes for OPOY too, I tend to split this award to someone who was more stat special at a skill position unless it was an all-time great QB season. So my gut says Julio Jones kills this noise about who is the best wideout in the NFL (OBJ and AB switching teams) and finally has a big TD season. Regression for Calvin Ridley in TDs and more to Julio to go with his usual outstanding yardage. I also have the Falcons back in the playoffs so let me feed that narrative too.

COY: I’ve seen people complaining about this award since Bill Belichick hasn’t won it since 2010, but what year did he really have a better argument than the winner? The only I arrived on was 2016 (Jason Garrett, Cowboys), but I also forgot that they only lost to the Giants before resting starters in Week 17’s loss. Getting Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott was a monster draft for them, but Prescott had to replace an injured Tony Romo in the preseason. So even that wasn’t an overwhelming argument for Belichick.

Anyways, for 2019 I wanted to pick someone who has to bring a team from nowhere to the playoffs, and the only coaches I have in my predictions doing that in their first try are Freddie Kitchens and Matt LaFleur. I was going to pick LaFleur here, and that’s not reactionary to Thursday night when I had picked GB to win the division (and that road opener), but I also saw the defense win the game so I’m not ready to go off on his offensive wizardry. Kitchens has the talent in Cleveland to win 10 games like I predicted, so if he can get the Browns back to the playoffs, I think that’s a pretty good argument for Coach of the Year. I also think if Frank Reich gets the Colts to 9-7 without Andrew Luck, he’ll win it, but I’m sticking with my season predictions (Colts 7-9) and going with Kitchens.

DPOY: No one has won this award four times in their career. I get that picking J.J. Watt to do that sounds unlikely, but is him getting a fourth really that more unlikely than Aaron Donald winning it for a third straight year? My thought is the Texans could again have a better overall defense than the Rams and Watt will get more recognition since the team traded away Jadeveon Clowney to Seattle late in the process. He really has to be great like he was last year when he had 16 sacks and 7 forced fumbles. Watt can still play at a high level and a defensive back hasn’t won this award since 2010. It’s skewed towards the linemen.

DROY: Finally, I expect a lot of early Sunday afternoon confusion on Twitter this year when Buffalo and Jacksonville are playing, which means a double dose of Josh Allen. There’s the second-year QB in Buffalo and now there’s a rookie defender in Jacksonville. We might need to agree on nicknames to differentiate the two. I’m thinking maybe Good Josh Allen and JAG Allen could work, though JAG Allen might confuse if the Jacksonville player becomes the good one (seems more likely) and people use it for the rookie instead of the Just Another Guy scrambler in Buffalo.

I’ve thought about this too much already, so let’s close with some picks.

NFL Week 1 Predictions

It was a good start on Thursday night after I had the Packers winning outright in Chicago, but man did that game suck. I’m looking forward to PIT-NE, LAR-CAR, KC-JAX and HOU-NO the most this week. More than anything, just show me some good offense again. The Super Bowl and GB-CHI were just miserable games to watch and I was happy when both ended.

2019Wk1

NFL Week 15 Predictions: Pennsylvania Blues Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I think the NFL clearly pegged Week 15 as a showdown week across the league before the schedule softens up in the last two weeks heading into the holidays and postseason. You can see it right away with the battle on Thursday night between the Chiefs and Chargers, and the week ends with Panthers-Saints, which should have been a much bigger game than it’s turned out to be in the NFC South.

But the two biggest games of Week 15 intended to be Patriots-Steelers and Eagles-Rams. Unfortunately, the Pennsylvania teams, who entered the season as Super Bowl contenders, have both disappointed and are in serious danger of missing the playoffs entirely. Philadelphia hasn’t been right since September, and will now have to make due with Nick Foles at quarterback. That worked great last year, but I’d expect the Rams to bounce back at home and put the Eagles out of their misery at 6-8 this time.

The Steelers are a whole different story. Every year we have the same talking points, because nothing ever really changes with this team. Can they ever get back to developing a great defense again, especially in the secondary? (Nope). Can they avoid losing the small games to teams they’re expected to beat? (Nope). Can they beat the Patriots to avoid having to go to New England in January? That one’s on their plate tomorrow, but the inexplicable three-game losing streak heading into this one makes even a win nowhere near as valuable as it should have been.

Remember, when these teams met in Week 15 last year with the Jesse James TD overturned, it was for the No. 1 seed. Now, even a Pittsburgh win is unlikely to give the Steelers homefield over the Patriots. It might not even help them to anything more than the No. 4 seed. The best thing it could do is help the Steelers make the playoffs, since that is in serious doubt with a trip to New Orleans up next and a favorable schedule for Baltimore. The second-best thing it could do is actually make the Patriots a No. 3 seed and not get a first-round bye for the ninth year in a row. That would still require Houston and the AFC West teams to finish strong, which isn’t a guarantee. The only other good thing it could do is give the Steelers some confidence they can beat the Patriots, which may still be required in January if they were the 4 and 3 seeds and both made it to the AFC Championship Game (a la Indy-NE in 2006). But that’s a ways off, and as this last week has shown, no one is a safe bet to do anything this year. These teams are coming off embarrassing losses to the Dolphins and Raiders after all.

As for the matchup itself, I’m not feeling Pittsburgh, a 3-point home underdog. We know the defense always struggles with this offense, but in the last three weeks, they’re barely even covering the other team’s top receiving threat (Emmanuel Sanders, Keenan Allen, Jared Cook). Now you bring the Patriots to town with Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon, and the Steelers definitely have their hands full. Don’t discount the running game and James White as a receiver too. Brady has also played better in the three games since the bye than he was earlier this season.

The 2018 Steelers are essentially a passing offense and nothing more. I think you’d have to go back to 2002 to find the last time the Steelers were so built around the pass with a suspect defense, a shoddy running game and terrible special teams (especially the kicker). But even that team finished 10-5-1 and made the playoffs because they came through on defense in the red zone when they had to. Last week, the Steelers had a fourth down to win the game and failed to stop Derek Carr in Oakland. They had an 8-minute drive against the Chargers with a 23-7 lead and Sean Davis turned an interception in the end zone into a touchdown for Allen after dislodging the ball with a hit on his own teammate. That was the play of the game and hurt more than any officiating blunder did. I think the Steelers hold on for the win if that pick went their way. Then the week before against Denver, that was about a comedy of errors by the OFF/ST in a game they should have scored way more than 17 points. So it’s been a frustrating three weeks after a pretty solid 7-2-1 start.

Ben Roethlisberger looked fine after the rib injury last week, so I’m not really worried about that part. James Conner possibly being out isn’t good since they may end up running for ~30 yards again, but it has to be a huge Roethlisberger game either way. I just don’t see how you beat the Patriots when you’re that one-dimensional of a team, but it’s a dimension they better at least utilize properly this week. That means no punting on fourth-and-short in NE territory.  No settling for long field goals to try to get Chris Boswell’s confidence back when he’s been terrible and is on the verge of getting cut. You need touchdowns in this game and you need to limit Brady’s possessions.

Do I trust Mike Tomlin to understand this? Of course not. He punted on 4th-and-1 with a 24-19 lead last year with 2:16 left when the Steelers might have put the game away. Do I expect the Steelers to make any changes if they lose five or six in a row and miss the playoffs? Of course not, even though it’s the same argument as Mike McCarthy in Green Bay, and the Packers fired him already. Tomlin should go too if they show they can’t beat the Patriots even when NE hasn’t looked this vulnerable since 2013 or 2005. Oh yeah, the Steelers lost to those New England teams as well.

Final: Patriots 30, Steelers 24

NFL Week 15 Predictions

That was a bad beat on Thursday as Chiefs and the under was the right call all night until the last 4 seconds.

2018Wk15

I think the Colts figure out the Cowboys at home, but it might be lower scoring than expected. Hate trusting the Giants, but they have been playing better since the bye. Titans can be very unpredictable, so I’d stay away from putting money on that game. I really like Seattle in SF.

Wk1-14

NFL Week 14 Predictions: The Old Familiar Sting Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Week 13 was an unlucky one for many of the NFL’s most notable quarterbacks. Some of them have a matchup in Week 14 against an opponent that has been a nuisance throughout their careers, with most of those coming as a surprise since these teams generally aren’t quality opponents. I imagine we’ll see at least one upset there.

Upset Alert: Steelers at Raiders (+10)

You can say I’m forcing the narrative on this one, but it’s a fact that underachieving Steelers seasons always involve a loss to the Raiders no matter how bad Oakland is. It’s happened all four times the Steelers have missed the playoffs in the Ben Roethlisberger era (2006, 2009, 2012, and 2013). This Oakland team is hardly any worse than those teams were either. Roethlisberger had two of his best performances in a loss ever in the 2009 and 2012 games, but he’s still just 2-4 against Oakland for his career.

This is almost a must-win for the Steelers (7-4-1), because they have the Patriots and Saints coming up. A five-game losing streak could knock them out of the playoffs altogether, so they have to get this one, but it won’t be easy. Oakland did just only lose by 7 points to the Chiefs last week. As much as I criticize Derek Carr, he’s been very functional in three of the losses this year (DEN, IND, KC). They can move the ball and score in this one, and the Steelers are playing anything but stellar defense right now.

I think the spread is too high, and that’s even after coming down from 11 earlier this week. The Steelers have played 14 road games since last year. They’ve won only two of those games by more than 7 points. They just make too many mistakes on the road to trust them to win big. With James Conner out, Roethlisberger might think he’s going to throw 45+ times just because he’s the least-pressured QB in the NFL and the Raiders have the worst pass rush. That’s why they should win this game, but it’s also easily why they could lose it if he starts forcing passes to Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. By DVOA, the Raiders are actually good (top 4) against #1 and #2 WRs. They suck everywhere else, and again, they just don’t generate pressures and sacks. So Roethlisberger needs to use his tight ends and use Jaylen Samuels as a receiver in this one and just be careful with the ball.

My biggest pet peeve about this season would be people blaming Le’Veon Bell’s absence on any lack of success for the Steelers. Clearly, they haven’t missed him and still remain a great offense, albeit more one-dimensional. However, it’s a different story when his replacement is out too. The Steelers aren’t well equipped to handle a RB injury since they put so much into a workhorse back, and Samuels has never been that type of player going back to college. So it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out, but if they’re just going to follow the script of past Pittsburgh disappointments, then bet on an Oakland win here.

Falcons at Packers (-4.5)

Yes, I picked both of these teams to finish 12-4, so them coming in with 4 wins (4.5 for Green Bay, technically) is very depressing. Aaron Rodgers is 3-5 against the Matt Ryan-led Falcons, including a playoff split. I think the Packers play well after the Mike McCarthy firing and get this win over an Atlanta team that has gone off the rails offensively the last month. Cue “dome team in Green Bay in December” too, though these teams did play a 43-37 game on a Monday night in 2014 (12/8) that was pretty entertaining. 2014 was also the last time the Packers looked like a well-oiled machine.

Patriots at Dolphins (+8)

Believe it or not, but Tom Brady is 7-9 as a starter in Miami, including 1-4 since 2013. He’s lost to some QBs much worse than Ryan Tannehill there, including Joey Harrington, A.J. Feeley, and Chad Henne. I’d feel better about Miami’s chances if Xavien Howard was active, because the Dolphins have a lot of takeaways this year and he has 7 INT alone. But he’ll miss a game for the first time since 2016 (figures). I’d also feel better about Miami scoring enough points to win if they had some of its YAC players still active, but Albert Wilson and Jakeem Grant have been lost for the season. So I don’t think Miami has much to hang its hat on right now, but Adam Gase has at least beaten the Patriots before so it could be worth a watch. The first matchup in Foxboro sure as hell wasn’t.

Saints at Buccaneers (+10)

Tampa Bay had one of the stunners of 2018 with that 48-40 win in New Orleans in Week 1. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a monster day, but it’s Jameis Winston now. He can still move the ball at a high level, but he’ll obviously have to avoid the turnovers in this one. The Saints had a mini-bye after that Dallas stinker and will be looking for a bounce-back performance, especially from Drew Brees. Tampa Bay has done better against the pass since firing Mike Smith, but the problem is the run defense is still atrocious too, and the Saints still have Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara.

So I think the Saints get a series split, but I still like Tampa Bay to keep it within 10. Maybe that’s fool’s gold, but in 12 career starts in Tampa Bay, Brees is 7-5 with only three wins by more than 7 points (all in 2006-2010 era). He’s not immune to throwing up a stinker in that building. Of course, he’ll probably throw for 500 yards and 6 TD after I questioned if the cliff is coming sooner than expected since he is about to turn 40.

SNF: Rams at Bears (+3)

Finally, I wanted to briefly cover SNF’s flexed game in Chicago. It could be a good one, and picking the Rams could be my regret of the week. I just think the Rams are more than capable of winning out to finish 15-1 and get the No. 1 seed. I also know that teams rarely finish 15-1, and a road game against a potential No. 3 seed that ranks top 5 in points scored and allowed is a juicy spot for an upset. I’m still going to trust the Rams in that they don’t let Khalil Mack blow this game up, because that’s Chicago’s most likely path to victory. Mack disrupting Jared Goff and forcing turnovers. But even when the Rams look off, like they did last week in Detroit, they still found a way to score 30 points on the road and won by 14. Whether it’s Goff, Gurley on the ground, or Aaron Donald doing incredible things on defense, I trust this team to find a way in this one.

It’ll be good to see Mitchell Trubisky back in the lineup in a big game, arguably the biggest of his young career. It’s not huge for playoff seeds since Bears are unlikely to catch anyone for a bye after losing to the Giants last week, but it could be big just to see if the Bears match up well with a top team. Show us that the NFC playoffs could be more than just an inevitable rematch between the Rams and Saints. Alas, the Bears are the only team this season with multiple losses despite 3+ takeaways. They’re also the only team to have 7 such games, but the point is even with takeaways they can still be outscored, especially by a potent team like the Rams.

Final: Rams 27, Bears 23

NFL Week 14 Predictions

I didn’t realize Jacksonville would quit after that shocking 6-0 win over the Colts. They really wanted no part of tackling Derrick Henry on TNF, so I’m 0-1 ATS, which has been kicking my ass for weeks now.

2018Wk14

Browns and Cardinals are two underdogs I like to win outright at home. I also will put something on Oakland winning straight up against Pittsburgh, but likely stick with the spread on that one.

Wk1-13

NFL Week 6 Predictions: AFC Game of the Year 2.0 Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Just have time for a quick look at some of the big AFC matchups in Week 6.

Chiefs at Patriots (-3)

The Chiefs were already involved in the Game of the Year last week, and used a Blake Bortles pick parade to march towards an easy win. Here they are again in a more legitimate Game of the Year, because it’s Sunday night in New England. With any luck, the Chiefs will have three more Game of the Year events, including a November matchup with the Rams, a potential rematch (JAX/NE) in the AFC Championship Game, and a potential rematch (Rams) in Super Bowl 53.

But before we talk about any Super Bowl with this team, beating New England at least once is crucial to that. Winning on Sunday night would go a long way in making sure a rematch happens at Arrowhead. The Chiefs could then finish 12-4 and the Patriots would have to win out (10-0) to guarantee a playoff seed above KC. That doesn’t look plausible with this roster in a season where few teams are standing out, but you can get a good fight almost any week.

If the game was in Arrowhead — past playoff disasters aside — I think the Chiefs would be an easy pick to win this week. But it’s at Gillette Stadium where you virtually can’t lose the turnover battle, can’t fall behind by 7+ points, and can’t allow 27+ points if you expect to win. Then again, the Chiefs did ALL of those things on opening night in 2017 and still won 42-27 behind big nights for Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt. Now the offense looks even more loaded with Patrick Mahomes taking over and the addition of Sammy Watkins to the wide receivers.

But I’m not sure Andy Reid can win with an offense-first mentality two years in a row in NE. That’s generally not the way to beat Tom Brady at home, and unless Mahomes pulls off some 2012 Colin Kaepernick magic in this one (that crazy 2012 SF game), I think this is a game where KC’s defense gets exposed and he has to play from behind too much, leading to mistakes against Bill Belichick’s defense. This is a game where the Chiefs really miss someone like Eric Berry to cover Rob Gronkowski. Not to mention the Patriots have a full arsenal now with a white security blanket for Brady (Julian Edelman), a receiving back (James White), and a freak athlete (Josh Gordon). That’s a tough matchup for any defense, let alone one that has struggled as much as the 28th-ranked Chiefs. Justin Houston or Dee Ford will have to have a lights out game off the edge in pressuring Brady, but I just don’t see it this time around.

It also should help that the Patriots had a few extra days to prepare for this one after playing last Thursday.

Final: Patriots 34, Chiefs 24

Steelers at Bengals (-1)

Games rarely get much bigger in Cincinnati than this one as it’s a chance for the Bengals to move to 5-1 and give themselves some nice distance over the rest of the AFC North. However, Marvin Lewis is 2-13 at home against Pittsburgh. It’s one of the crazier stats in NFL history, but it’s legit, and a lot of it can be seen in Ben Roethlisberger’s splits in those games. He’s thrown multiple interceptions six times against the Bengals in 30 games, but all six of those games happened at Heinz Field, including some of the worst passing performances of his career (2006, 2012, 2015).

Roethlisberger is 23-2 when his passer rating is at least 75.0 against the Bengals, so it usually takes a poor day from him for the Bengals to win. Cincinnati usually does well against Antonio Brown, but JuJu Smith-Schuster actually has 77 more yards on 13 fewer targets than Brown this season. While Roethlisberger threw two touchdowns to Brown last week, I think he’d be best advised to not force the ball there this week.

Pittsburgh’s defense had been struggling this year, but last week against a very good Atlanta offense it showed some promise. They held the Falcons to 17 points, didn’t let Julio Jones catch a pass until the 3rd quarter, and also got a fumble return TD. The pass rush has been generally good this year, and that will be key to get after Andy Dalton. When the pass rush doesn’t get there, this secondary can look as bad as any in the league. The Bengals also are getting a big third-year boost from Tyler Boyd, who has as many targets as A.J. Green and only trails him by 16 receiving yards. They did lose Tyler Eifert at tight end again, but Boyd is looking like a legit No. 2 option. They need it with receiving back Giovani Bernard out until November.

These teams definitely hate each other, so I wouldn’t dismiss the possibility of several 15-yard flags. That could be bad news for an undisciplined Pittsburgh team that has racked up penalties this season. I understand why the Bengals are a slight 1-point favorite, but I basically don’t know of an NFL universe where Cincinnati wins games like this, so I still lean towards the Steelers pulling off the win. The Bengals have been living on the edge all year and have three fourth-quarter comebacks already to get to 4-1.

Final: Steelers 26, Bengals 23

NFL Week 6 Predictions

I had the Eagles beating the Giants on TNF, and I also thought it’d be a better game than that.

2018Wk6

I think the spreads are too high for the Vikings and Texans here. Arizona has been more competitive since benching Sam Bradford, and neither the Vikings nor Texans (two OT wins by 3 points) have beat anyone by double-digits this season. Of course I can be wrong here (see below), but this has been a bad season for double-digit favorites covering and I think that continues here. I don’t however think we see a straight-up loss by any of the four teams favored by a touchdown or more.

Wk1-5

NFL Week 5 Predictions: Matchup of the Year Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Before we get to my misery of picking a Falcons-Steelers Super Bowl, let’s look at the best matchup of the season in Arrowhead.

Jaguars at Chiefs (-3): I really like what the Rams are doing offensively, and the Bears have been stellar defensively with Khalil Mack. But for my money, there’s no better matchup right now than Kansas City’s offense against Jacksonville’s defense. I’m glad we get to see it early this season when both units are relatively healthy. Patrick Mahomes has been passing every test so far in keeping this offense ahead of the porous defense in KC. The Jaguars have been really sharp offensively in two of the last three games, but you’re starting to see some injuries pile up there at RB (Leonard Fournette) and LT (Cam Robinson on IR). I still think a mobile QB with some playmaking WRs can cause real problems for Bob Sutton’s defense, so it could be another game where Mahomes has to score 27+ to win.

That’s really hard against Jacksonville, but I think it can be done if Andy Reid continues to move Tyreek Hill around. Don’t fall into the pissing match with Jalen Ramsey, and just move him around the field to get matched up with other receivers. They also have a lot of flexibility with Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt finally got it going on the ground last week in Denver. There’s going to be a day where Mahomes is off and this team loses, but I think they can get to 5-0 for the second year in a row. This should be a good one.

Falcons at Steelers (-3): I feel like I’m paying for picking these teams to make the Super Bowl in Atlanta this year. Did you see this stat?

THESE TWO TEAMS ACCOUNT FOR 3 OF THE 4 LOSSES SINCE 1940. That’s the kind of nutty offensive shit that is the 2018 season, but I still can’t believe this keeps happening here. Maybe if the field is in poor shape after a rainy Pitt game on Saturday, then the under (58) might actually hit. Maybe these teams will actually decide to play defense. At least in Pittsburgh’s case, it’s not injuries like it is for Atlanta, which will also be without Grady Jarrett. For the Steelers to lose two home games already, it’s not so bad when you consider one was a Mahomes masterpiece, and Baltimore has given Pittsburgh problems at home in a way only New England surpasses this century. The Falcons are an unfamiliar opponent, but I think Dan Quinn’s defense can be picked apart by Ben Roethlisberger. They may even get the running game more involved this week after knowing they’ve gone away from it lately, and with all of Atlanta’s injuries right down the middle of the field (DT/LB/S), James Conner needs to get more involved. Just can’t afford to get behind 14-0 or 21-0 again.

Then again, maybe it’s another shootout. It was in 2002 and 2006 between these teams; games that went to OT (so did 2010’s low-scoring game with Roethlisberger suspended). Or maybe it’s more like the last meeting in 2014 (27-20) where the offenses were very efficient in a limited-drive game, but the Steelers had a big pick-6 and did just enough on defense.

Just enough is enough D for these teams. But the fact that one is likely to go into Week 6 with one win is depressing for my vision of 2018.

NFL Week 5 Predictions

I nailed the TNF game, because let’s face it, Colts-Patriots hasn’t changed in two decades. The Indianapolis QB has the weight of the world on his shoulders with the weaker team and coach, and things just come so easier for the other guy. At least the Manning-era games were more dramatic.

2018Wk5

I’m digging the Steelers to win at home, and I like a teaser this week with three of the 6-point favorites (TEN, CIN, NO) and also SEA (+13.5). I also like the Cardinals to win their first game.

Wk1-4

NFL Week 4 Predictions: This Could Be Interesting Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

When I look at the Week 4 schedule, I see a lot of games that may not be that exciting to watch, but if the underdog comes to play, it could be a very interesting Sunday.

Just a few quick thoughts before the picks.

Texans at Colts (-1) – with Houston 0-3 and the 1-2 Colts heading to New England after this game, it’s basically an early playoff elimination game for these teams. I’ve been disappointed by both so far, especially in regards to the way the offenses have handled their returning QB. I would be worried for the Colts in this one with the way J.J. Watt was back on track last week (3.0 sacks), but T.Y. Hilton has shredded that defense throughout his career. Now we just have to see if Luck is still willing to get him the ball deep in this new offense.

Dolphins at Patriots (-7) – A sign of the end times would be the Dolphins going to 4-0 by beating the Patriots in New England. As good as that would be for the AFC, I just cannot see it happening even though I see very little happening from the Patriots on either side of the ball right now. Miami won the last meeting in December when no one expected it, and it’s not like this would be a shock after the way the Dolphins have produced big pass plays and interceptions this season. I just harp back on the way Miami is scraping by some so-so competition. Falling behind in New England is a no-no, and Adam Gase has been down by 18+ in his first two games there with the Dolphins. I am very interested to see what Ryan Tannehill does in the biggest game of his NFL career, but I’m not yet a believer that we’re seeing a changing of the guard in the AFC East.

Browns at Raiders (-3) – When I made my preseason predictions, I had the Browns going on a winning streak starting with the Jets game, followed by dropping Jon Gruden’s Raiders to 0-4. I might as well stick with it, picking the Browns to win their first road game since Week 5 of 2015. A big reason is the defense, which has been stellar so far. I think as long as Gregg Williams doesn’t leave too soft of a space for Derek Carr to keep dumping the ball into, they’ll get pressure on him and make him very uncomfortable. I also think the lack of pass rush by Oakland should help Baker Mayfield ease into his first start. I’d take Cleveland straight up in this one.

Ravens at Steelers (-3) – It’s been two dramatic come-from-behind wins by Pittsburgh in the last two meetings at Heinz Field. Baltimore plays this team tough all the time, and I see no exception this week. Baltimore’s offense has been much better so far this season and Joe Flacco even hung 38 points in the last meeting in December. These are better receivers to deal with and the Steelers have been giving up a lot of points since the Ryan Shazier injury. The offense is going to have to be great again, which it usually is at home. Antonio Brown is often held in check by the Ravens, but at least Jimmy Smith is still suspended. I’ll pick the Steelers to win by a small margin, but a Baltimore win wouldn’t be the least bit surprising.

Chiefs (-5) at Broncos – There will come a time when Patrick Mahomes has an off game, but he’s in historic form so far. He already has a start and a game-winning drive at Mile High under his belt, and I’m not sure any defense that lets Derek Carr complete 29-of-32 passes should still be considered as vaunted. The Chiefs have been doing very well in this rivalry the last few years and I think we’ll see another good game from Mahomes on Monday night. The only thing that can spoil it is if Case Keenum finally takes advantage of this poor KC defense. Keenum has really struggled in the first half this year.

NFL Week 4 Predictions

I had the Rams winning 30-24 on TNF, but the 38-31 final gives me a push to start the week against the spread.

2018Wk4

I like NE, GB, DAL, and JAX all to rebound with a home win. I also think the Chargers are a double-digit favorite that should actually cruise this week now that Jimmy Garoppolo is out.

2018Wks1-3

NFL Week 3 Predictions: Glad to Be Here Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

After a rough couple of days personally, just time for a quick look at Monday night’s game. Just glad to still be here typing.

Steelers at Buccaneers

When I did my season predictions, I had the Steelers overlooking this one as a trap game and losing to a Tampa Bay team I had finishing 3-13. What a difference a few weeks can make. Now this game is a pick ’em and the Buccaneers are flying high behind Ryan Fitzpatrick while the Steelers are 0-1-1 and fading fast. They’re about one more bad headline away from getting their own Ronan Farrow feature.

Oddly enough, I like the Steelers to win on Monday now. I think they can put much of this drama behind them and play well against a team they should match up well with. So much of Fitzpatrick’s success so far has been nailing the deep balls. They have the weapons to do that with, but Fitzpatrick has never proven he can sustain this level of play for any extended period of time. It’s also typically not a sustainable strategy against Pittsburgh, a defense that for years is more vulnerable to spread, dink-and-dunk assaults. If Fitzpatrick holds the ball long to set up vertical shots, then I think T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward can get to him. Joe Haden returning to the secondary can help. Tampa Bay’s also dead last in rushing YPC (2.7) so it’s a pretty one-dimensional attack. Fitzpatrick came into this season with 13 TD passes of 50+ yards. He has four in two games with a pair in each win. I know the Steelers had some problems last year with giving up long scoring passes, but I really think they can avoid getting beat by the early deep balls that the Saints and Eagles couldn’t survive.

On the other side of the ball, there’s not much of a secondary in Tampa Bay. I think Ben Roethlisberger and his receivers, including Antonio Brown, can have another big game. Even if Ben and Brown aren’t on the same page yet, JuJu Smith-Schuster still looks great, Jesse James had a big game with Ben’s improvising, and James Washington caught his first touchdown last week. The weapons are there even without Le’Veon Bell. I also think the offensive line can hold up against that front seven, the strength of Tampa’s D.

It may very well have to be a shootout, but I like the Steelers to restore some order in this one and get a win before this season goes totally off the rails.

NFL Week 3 Predictions

I thought I was going to fall to 0-3 on TNF, but the Browns came through after putting Baker Mayfield in the game.

2018Wk3

I think this is a perfect week to do a teaser with some of the big favorites. Make it PHI -1, JAX -3.5, MIN -11, KC -1, LAR -1, NE -1. And I also like PIT +6 and ARI +12 (the latter because Steve Wilks might get fired before October if things don’t start to resemble an NFL team).

Trying something different with the weekly summary. I’m not a big fan of how the red comes through here so might tinker with it.

2018wks1-2