NFL Week 1 Predictions: At Least Try Covering the Best Receivers

Maybe next year I’ll remember to include this part at the end of my season predictions.

Award Predictions

• MVP: Andrew Luck
• OPOY: Andrew Luck
• DPOY: J.J. Watt
• Coach: Chip Kelly
• OROY: Amari Cooper
• DROY: Vic Beasley
• Comeback: Sam Bradford

I guess that completes the jinx for Indy (top seed, MVP, SB team) I bestowed upon the 2014 Saints a year ago. At least Rob Ryan isn’t in Indianapolis (or T-Rich).

Antonio Brown and Historic Receiving Streaks

Whether it’s real football or fantasy, the wide receivers have been stealing the show lately. 2014 was the greatest rookie class of WR’s ever, as it seems to be one of the few positions colleges are developing these days. A.J. Green is the latest in a line of wideouts to sign a huge contract. He deserves every penny for having to deal with Andy Dalton’s inaccurate throws.

With one game in the books for 2015, we saw more greatness from two members of the 2010 draft: TE Rob Gronkowski and WR Antonio Brown. Gronk might already be a HOF lock if he retired today. He’s just that dominant with 58 TD in 68 games. The 2015 Steelers are just that stupid to leave him so frequently open as they did on Thursday night. That game was also proof that you don’t need a 41-38 final to be an offensively-dominated game. Those defenses were both lost. In the rare event they were in position someone usually just made a play anyway. That someone was usually Brown, who continued his unmatched streak of consistency. Just how consistent has Brown been? I dug into the regular-season streaks since 1960 at PFR.

Not only does Brown continue to have 5+ catches and 50+ yards in 33 games, but he recently set the record for consecutive 80-yard games at 11. He’s still on record streaks for 60+ and 70+ yards as well. We see Calvin Johnson’s recent dominance, Josh Gordon’s incredible 2013 feats and Odell Beckham Jr. has a shot to set a new mark for 90-yard games with a 10th on Sunday night.

How about receptions?

No one has ever had consecutive games with 13+ receptions, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen soon.

Unique Quarterback Debuts

Tyrod Taylor will start his first game in his fifth season in the NFL. That’s pretty rare. The only relevant QB I can think of who did not start a game until his fifth season was Jeff Hostetler with the Giants. That also might be the best-case scenario for Taylor’s career prospects, because late-blooming quarterbacks are almost unheard of.

Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, the first two picks in the draft, will start their first game against each other. Think the NFL had a good hunch on how the draft would turn out to schedule that one? Otherwise it’s pretty hard to hype up these two franchises. I believe this is the first game in the modern era (since 1950) where two rookie quarterbacks started against each other in Week 1. Forget the top two pick part, I’m talking about any rookie QB.

I’d write some more but I’m really tapped out at this point and just want to see some 2015 action.

2015 Week 1 Predictions

I had the Patriots beating the Steelers ever since I knew this was going to be a game in New England. I slightly hesitated when it didn’t look like Tom Brady was going to start, but all along I figured the Steelers would start 0-1. They played closer than I expected at least.

• Seahawks at Rams
• Colts at Bills
• Panthers at Jaguars
• Chiefs at Texans
• Browns at Jets
• Packers at Bears
• Dolphins at Redskins
• Bengals at Raiders
• Titans at Buccaneers
• Lions at Chargers
• Saints at Cardinals
• Ravens at Broncos
• Giants at Cowboys
• Eagles at Falcons
• Vikings at 49ers

I was getting worried when I kept picking road team after road team, but it evens out to 8-8 in the end. Hopefully I’ll finish better than 8-8 after no losing weeks in 2014. My only .500 weeks in 2014 were Week 1 and the Divisional round.

The Rams won’t get their special teams advantage this time over the Seahawks, though I think it can be a close one. I like the Colts to pull out an ugly one in Buffalo, because you still have to score a decent number of points to down that team. The Bills aren’t the type of team the Colts usually lose to. Maybe I’m drinking some Hard Knocks kool-aid, but I like the Texans to get a minor upset at home with Bill O’Brien helping to make Brian Hoyer look competent. I think Mariota outplays Winston, but the run game and a late turnover gives Tampa a close win. It’s important for Peyton Manning to get off to a quick start in Gary Kubiak’s offense. How they look in this game will weigh heavily in how I project the Thursday game in Kansas City. Finally, I can’t wait to see Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray in this Chip Kelly offense. That could be a very entertaining game in Atlanta.