Author: Scott

NFL History: Defending Super Bowl Champion vs. Regular Season Champion

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Going off an article from last week on the NFL’s Final Four history, I was thinking about how the NHL’s Chicago Blackhawks are this year’s regular season champion and they currently hold a 2-0 lead against the Los Angeles Kings, who are the defending Stanley Cup champions.

How many of these meetings between defending champion and regular season champion have taken place in the NFL?

My data on NFL regular season champions goes back to 1975 when the seeding system was put in place. Here are those meetings (winner in green):

DSRS

Nothing says “last year was last year” like this table.

The regular season champion is 18-3 (.857) against the defending Super Bowl champion, including 12 straight wins from 1976-94. In the playoffs, the regular season champion is 4-2.

The only three losses involve the ‘90s NFC cycle when Steve Young’s 49ers couldn’t beat Brett Favre’s Packers, who couldn’t beat Troy Aikman’s Cowboys. Also the Patriots took their poor loss on Halloween into Pittsburgh and turned it into a 41-27 win in the 2004 AFC Championship.

18-3, that’s pretty damn good.

Donovan McNabb Retires an Eagle

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Quarterback Donovan McNabb officially retired as a Philadelphia Eagle last week.

Is he ever going to be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame? After that finish to his career in Washington and Minnesota, the answer is no. You can read my extended information on his HOF case here.

Honestly, I just wanted to post this ridiculous GIF somewhere. So from the last meaningful game of McNabb’s career, a 34-14 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in the 2009 playoffs, this is what McNabb did:

McNabb Dance

Is that a “cornball brother” move?

Apparently McNabb has blocked out the memory of that evening. He currently serves as a NFL Network analyst.

mcnabb 

The Office Finale: Saying Goodbye…For the Fifth Time

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If only because I’m tired of seeing my terrible mock draft at the top of the page, I’m going to reflect on the series finale of NBC’s The Office tonight. Spoilers on the series will be included, so read at your own risk.

In some ways The Office has become the Brett Favre of comedies. It’s been around forever, but every time you think it’s gone, it comes back.

But no more retirement games as tonight’s episode is indeed the series finale. While some people have followed the show since the British original from 2001, my experience with the show has been very unique, and I just wanted to share it on this day.

This is going to feel like the fifth time I have said goodbye to The Office ….all in a span of six months, and yet it feels like 12 years.

Back in 2001 I was more likely to think “BBC” meant something vulgar than its real meaning. I didn’t know who Ricky Gervais was. So it was a happy time, you could say.

By the time the show was developed for American television in 2005, I was hardly watching any TV series not named 24, which oddly enough was announced this week that it is coming back. I did not have a DVR until 2007. Netflix was not streaming on my Playstation 3 until last April.

Frankly, I thought the show looked stupid. I didn’t care for the mockumentary style, as though I am a fan of narration, breaking the fourth wall and talking straight to the camera has never been a tactic I enjoy. Technically they have an audience when they talk to the camera in these things, but come on. I can see through your parlor tricks.

So I avoided the show for quite a while, along with just about any sitcom on the big networks at the time. It did not help that I was not a fan of Steve Carell outside of Little Miss Sunshine.

Yet for some reason when I got Netflix last year, I decided to queue up both the British and American versions. It wasn’t until about September that I actually watched them. One Saturday afternoon I watched the British pilot followed immediately by the American pilot, which was basically a shortened version of Gervais’ work.

Sure, I liked that the British characters were able to swear, even if they were hard to understand at times. I sparingly watched it, though did have a wild coincidence on a Wednesday night with it.

After a caller into our Colts Authority radio show dropped “big black cock” on the air, I watched the British version afterwards. Sure enough it was the season 2 opener where there was a joke centered on a “big black cock.” The BBC was literally haunting me that night.

Initially I did like the British version more, though during football season it was hard to find time to really watch either. I did start grinding away on the American version, but it wasn’t until maybe November when I finished the British version’s 14 episodes. The good guy gets the receptionist in the end. What a shocker.

With the conclusion of the British version, that was the first time I said goodbye to The Office.

Through the holiday season I started picking up steam on the American version, watching a couple hours of episodes at a time. I thought the show was progressing well. When people live and breathe with a show each week, it is easy for them to wear down over the years. But if you watch it in mini-marathon viewings, you’ll see most shows maintain their quality for season after season, if not getting better as you grow to love the characters.

And that I did.

Carell actually didn’t annoy the shit out of me anymore (at least not that much). Rainn Wilson was no longer that “goofy looking dude who was in Super” to me. Jenna Fischer says more with her eyes than most actresses can with their mouths. John Krasinski took the bowl off his head and Brian Baumgartner started going full meathead. The less David Koechner, the better. Ed Helms was tolerable from The Hangover, while Ellie Kemper was a great addition as the new receptionist.

I wanted to kill Toby too.

My favorite episode was probably “Dinner Party” from season 4. You know, that one night?

As I was getting close to finishing season 7 in January, I was already aware Michael Scott leaves the show in “Goodbye Michael”. Normally it would be TV suicide to lose your main character, but that is why this is the second time I said goodbye to The Office as I knew it.

With a few minor changes, that really could have been the series finale right there. Hell, they didn’t even make it the season 7 finale. Bold move to continue, but so be it, NBC.

Now after seven seasons and the loss of the main character, this is when I noticed the quality of the show began to decay. They tried to make Andy Bernard, perhaps thanks to Helms’ film success, the new Michael Scott. I like Andy’s character, but this just didn’t work. Season 8 featured many scenes and episodes outside of the office, which kind of defeats the purpose of the show. About the only thing I liked in this season was more screen time for Erin.

I even had my longest Netflix marathon ever one night to finish this season, watching 15 episodes in a row. Like that I was done with all eight seasons and the 169 episodes Netflix had to offer. Usually this sense of accomplishment means you are done with a series, but The Office was still going.

Since Comcast is a joke and only had a few mid-season episodes from Season 9 available OnDemand, I ended up getting Hulu Plus in February. Annoyed with their commercial breaks, I plodded through the first 15 episodes, not particularly enjoying much of what I was seeing. The new characters were not interesting, Nellie has not been a good addition, and even staples of the show like Jim and Pam were just boring at this point.

When I finished the series on Hulu, I was finally all caught up to the live show, which some people have already been caught up on for eight (or 12) years. It took me five months.

That was the fourth time I said goodbye to The Office.

My first chance to watch the show live was missed as I had to DVR and watch it later (but no commercials is always a plus).

So the first live episode I ever watched was “The Farm”, which is literally the single worst episode ever made in the 201-episode series. Good thing for NBC they canceled this attempt at a spin-off on Dwight’s farm family, because it was horrible.

The last five episodes have largely shown a series running on fumes to get to the finale. “Stairmageddon” was another low point for the series. At least last week’s episode recalled some vintage moments from the show’s early days. Is the show even old enough in my head to call anything about it vintage?

But now here we are with one 55-minute “Finale” to go. The series finale to Six Feet Under is such a gold standard that it has ruined my lifelong expectations of all other series finales, so I don’t expect a whole lot from this one.

I think it would be a colossal mistake for Steve Carell to not make an appearance tonight. The fact that it’s a wedding for Dwight and Angela makes it extremely easy to write him in, even if it’s for just one scene.

So that’s that.

When I say goodbye to The Office for the fifth time, I know that this is the only one that counts. While it’s taken many people 8-12 years to get to this point, the show’s only been with me for eight months.

Watching it live tonight, it will feel awkward to say goodbye so soon, but that’s exactly how I want to remember this show: a daily snapshot of awkwardness.

NFL 2013 Mock Draft (1st Round)

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Look, I really don’t like mock drafts. But since some people have asked if I will do one, and since I entered a contest on NFL.com for one, I might as well share my sure to be failure of a mock. One little change and suddenly you have to make major changes. I tried to match players the teams actually need, but we know everyone has their own drafting methods.

If I get five right I’ll call it a good effort. But that’s the thing with mock drafts. Someone can spend 100 hours and get fewer picks right than the person throwing a list into Excel and doing a random number generator to make their picks.

  1. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Luke Joeckel
  2. Jacksonville Jaguars – DE Dion Jordan
  3. Oakland Raiders – DT Sharrif Floyd
  4. Philadelphia Eagles – DT Star Lotulelei
  5. Detroit Lions – OT Eric Fisher
  6. Cleveland Browns – CB Dee Milliner
  7. Arizona Cardinals – OG Chance Warmack
  8. Buffalo Bills – QB Ryan Nassib
  9. NY Jets – DE Barkevious Mingo
  10. Tennessee Titans – OT D.J. Fluker
  11. San Diego Chargers – OG Jonathan Cooper
  12. Miami Dolphins – DE Ezekiel Ansah
  13. NY Jets – QB E.J. Manuel
  14. Carolina Panthers – OT Lane Johnson
  15. New Orleans Saints – DL Sheldon Richardson
  16. St. Louis Rams – WR Tavon Austin
  17. Pittsburgh Steelers – LB Jarvis Jones
  18. Dallas Cowboys – DL Johnathan Hankins
  19. NY Giants – CB Xavier Rhodes
  20. Chicago Bears – LB Arthur Brown
  21. Cincinnati Bengals – S Kenny Vaccaro
  22. St. Louis Rams – DE Bjoren Werner
  23. Minnesota Vikings – LB Manti Te’o
  24. Indianapolis Colts – DE Damontre Moore
  25. Minnesota Vikings – QB Geno Smith
  26. Green Bay Packers – DL Cornellius Carradine
  27. Houston Texans – WR Cordarrelle Patterson
  28. Denver Broncos – DL Datone Jones
  29. New England Patriots – WR Justin Hunter
  30. Atlanta Falcons – TE Tyler Eifert
  31. San Francisco 49ers – S Eric Reid
  32. Baltimore Ravens – WR Keenan Allen

The beauty of this thing is I don’t care how I do, and I  spent more time typing these out than putting it together.

Just let me know when the games start and we see how good these players really are. At least half of them will likely disappoint.

I also would like to further go on record in believing Cordarrelle Patterson is going to be a bust, and Arkansas QB Tyler Wilson will be the best NFL QB in this class.

Mock.

UPDATE (1:00 A.M. Friday morning)

That was worse than expected. The only pick I got right was Jarvis Jones to Pittsburgh. Guess I still know the Steelers at least…

I did match up Tavon Austin to St. Louis and Eric Reid to San Francisco, but at much different numbers.

So be it.

Reaching For Value in the NFL Draft

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Rather than try to do a Twitter rant with a 140-character limit, I just wanted to share some thoughts on NFL teams “reaching” in the draft.

Let’s look at a hypothetical. A team holds the 15th and 47th picks in the draft. The player they want is roughly the 32nd-best prospect on the board according to most teams and experts. Should the team still pull the trigger on that player, which could be considered a reach, or should they take someone with closer “value” to the No. 15 pick?

(Note: Literally just as I was going to hit “Publish”, I saw a link that made me realize this hypothetical is essentially the real-life example of Seattle and Bruce Irvin last year.)

I say you take the player you want and ignore the so-called “reach” criticism. What’s valuable is getting the player that you feel best fits your system and need. There’s a good chance that player would not be there when you pick again at 47. There is no guarantee you could trade down and get the player in the 20s or 30s; supposedly closer to where he is “supposed to go.” It takes two to tango.

Remember, when these Mel Kiper/Mike Mayock types rank players, they are looking at every position in the draft. The reality is teams are looking at a limited number of positions when it comes to that premium first-round pick. If Geno Smith is the best player available at No. 17, that doesn’t mean a damn thing to the Pittsburgh Steelers, because they have a quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger.

Let’s look at a real example with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this year. Last week I broke down whether or not Tampa Bay should be trading for Darrelle Revis.

These are the only positions the Buccaneers, who pick 13th (for now), should be considering with that pick: TE, WR, DE, DT, OLB, and CB.

You could argue it’d be no different in the second round (43rd overall) for Tampa as well. I almost didn’t include WR because of Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams as starters, though you could imagine the value of a Tavon Austin in the slot in that offense. Still, it’s a fringe need for this team.

But the point is Tampa Bay is only looking at a few different positions, so their board is far different from many teams and that of the experts who will instantly be analyzing these picks. If Texas safety Kenny Vacarro is the best player available when Tampa Bay picks, then you can’t fault them when they pass given they have Mark Barron and Dashon Goldson. If they take a player that’s only 25th on Mel Kiper’s big board at No. 13, then you better adjust it for all the players Kiper had listed at positions Tampa Bay didn’t need to fill.

After you do that, you’ll likely see it was hardly a reach.

Historically, the 13th pick holds more value than the 32nd pick, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to produce a better player in every case. So you should focus on taking the best player for your team, even if he supposedly isn’t worth a top 15 pick. Every single year there are players who go at the end of the round that are much better than players at the start of that round.

That’s one of the many issues with analysis of a process so inexact. No matter who’s doing the mock draft, no one really knows how a team feels about the players they have and what they think they really need to upgrade. That’s why you end up with draft results that are so drastically different from expectations, which is how you end up with “that team reached!”

But the only real reach is thinking one can ever predict how a NFL draft will unfold.

NFL Wide Receivers: Ranking the Best to Ever Change Teams

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Between now and the 2013 NFL season I will be spending some considerable time on quantifying wide receivers. Much of this will be part of an effort for a book written by Nate Dunlevy (with the help of others) this year.

Today I completed a slideshow – a nearly 8,000-word slideshow – at Bleacher Report on the top 25 debut seasons by a wide receiver on a new team in NFL history. Ultimately 47 different seasons were discussed, but I was never able to post a table for them.

Here is the table for the top 25 (PB = Pro Bowl, AP = 1st-team All-Pro):

Top25WR

Then there were 22 honorable mentions:

WRHM

Going through all of NFL history, it would be hard to find many seasons better than these ones. Something like Keyshawn Johnson’s debut in Tampa Bay could be added, and then find two more to get a top 50. But this is fairly definitive.

The most interesting fact after all of this is that with these 47 seasons, not a single one produced a championship that year.

Only five of these players eventually won a championship with that team, and two of them were hardly big contributors. It just goes to show how adding a WR is not a piece that will put you over the top. Especially not right away.

Keep that in mind, fans of the Broncos, Patriots and Seahawks. Adding Wes Welker, Danny Amendola and Percy Harvin could be big, but a Super Bowl win in 2013 by any of them would be a first for this type of move.

A Ray Lewis Super Bowl Tackle and the NFL’s Need for Offensive Line Stats

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Jonathan Ogden was elected to the Hall of Fame in a rather easy choice this past weekend on his first ballot attempt. Ogden was a mammoth of a man and had all the proper accolades you would expect from a HOF left tackle.

But how much do we really know about his domination? Offensive linemen do not have stats the way skill position players or even defensive players have. Most of their value is based on Pro Bowls and All-Pro selections, which are proven to be heavily influenced by draft status. If Maurkice Pouncey was a 2nd-round pick for the Carolina Panthers, played the exact same way he has for Pittsburgh, then he would not have a single Pro Bowl in his career.

Ogden’s teammate Ray Lewis of course earned his second Super Bowl ring on Sunday, but it was hardly for his on-field play this season. Here is one of the tackles Lewis was credited with an assist on. Watch San Francisco RG Alex Boone (#75) pull to the left and miss the block entirely.

aboone

No wonder this offense struggled in the red zone. This is why some running plays gain three yards instead of seven. You would have to watch every play for every linemen to come up with statistics like stops, pancakes, sacks allowed, etc. But there are sites (Pro Football Focus) and people (KC Joyner) who have proven to be willing to do so. I currently do not have access to the premium section on PFF, but when I did, I honestly cannot recall if they had such stats for individual linemen.

We’re going to need them if people ever want to truly figure out which players are blocking well, and which keep tackling Manti Te’o’s girlfriend.

Super Bowl XLVII Predictions and Preview

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For the last time (allegedly) in his life, Ray Lewis will take the field and deliver his pre-game “What time is it? (GAME TIME!)” song. For the first time in my life, I cannot wait to hear it.

Is it because I am getting sentimental over the final game for Ray?

Not at all. I just want this f*cking game to start already. I cannot stand the two weeks of hype before the Super Bowl, and this is even for a game where I do not have a strong, personal rooting interest like I have in recent years. Sure, I want San Francisco to win, but I really don’t care if they don’t. Just get this game going.

I really can’t even write anymore about it, so here is a collection of links including thousands of words and hours of solid research previewing this game.

Super Bowl XLVII Preview

49ers by the Numbers – David Akers’ history in the clutch, how Colin Kaepernick actually keeps the ball in the zone-read option, how he runs, and why he’d rather have Crabs than VD

Ravens by the Numbers – The timeline of Baltimore’s improbable run, Lewis leading the best playoff defense ever, and Flacco’s unconventional success, including third down.

Is Joe Flacco Underrated in the Clutch – Might as well present the facts before the MSM kills the story, using Sunday night’s game result to decide if Flacco is clutch or not. He’s better than you probably think.

The Thinking Man’s Guide to Super Bowl XLVII – Putting the data together to look at the matchups, and what should decide this game.

NFL Quarterbacks: Career Playoff Drive Stats (2013 Edition) – More of a general article, but a lot of focus on Flacco’s improvement this postseason, and some amazing numbers from San Francisco in the last two playoff games.

You still have about 8 hours before this thing gets going. So you can read some of this, or watch Dan Marino’s body language on CBS. If there’s a downer to tonight, it would be having to listen to Phil Simms and Jim Nantz call one more game this season.

But at least the Patriots are not involved.

Super Bowl XLVII Predictions

Coin-Toss Prediction: Heads

First Score Prediction: Justin Tucker 38-yard field goal

Colin Kaepernick’s Rushing Yards: 53 yards

Joe Flacco’s Passing Yards: 267 yards

Final Score: Ravens 23, 49ers 20

Super Bowl MVP: Joe Flacco

 

The year never ends for me, as at least three articles will be written every week this year. Will I find enough to talk about in the dog days of March, or May thru July?

Probably.

NFL Conference Championship Predictions and Writing Recap

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Only three games left in the NFL season, excluding the Pro Bowl. Actually the Pro Bowl would probably count as -0.5 games, because that’s how bad it has become. A drawback to writing for multiple sites is that you have to avoid repeating information when writing a preview for the few games left, but my early week broke up the monotony with a much-needed trip down memory lane.

Part of what makes this the best time of the (NFL) year, also makes it the worst when people overreact to playoff results.

This Week’s Articles

Captain Comeback Divisional: Last-Minute Shockers by Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens – Cold, Hard Football Facts

One of the more epic playoff games ever, Baltimore at Denver, deserved an epic-sized recap. See what the refs screwed up, how Chris Kuper disappointed in his return, Joe Flacco’s big-play postseason, the worst defensive mistake in NFL history, and whether or not the Broncos played it too conservatively late. Also, the Falcons and Seahawks play one of the most exciting fourth quarters in playoff history, and Matt Ryan finally gets a chance for a game-winning drive in the playoffs. He only had 0:25 to do so. Finally a look at more dominant wins by the 49ers and Patriots.

Peyton Manning’s 9-11 Playoff Record Is a Call for Help – Cold, Hard Football Facts

If you think Peyton Manning’s playoff career should be defined by 11 losses and eight one-and-done seasons, then you have some cold, hard facts to read up on. A game-by-game recap of Manning’s eight early playoff exits, looking at the real reason his teams lost that day, and the unique circumstances that have produced such a record. Stats, tables, GIF images, the whole nine yards this week.

One example: Two yards away from beating the Chargers, and your rookie TE forgets the snap count and gets beat for a sack.

grob

Joe Flacco Eyeing an Elite Contract, But Is He an Elite NFL QB? – Bleacher Report

Can you believe Joe Flacco is going to start as many AFC Championship games (3) in five seasons as Peyton Manning and Dan Marino each started in their career? But that says more about the Ravens than Flacco, and even though he said he was the best quarterback back in April, he’s still not an elite player. A look at what kind of long-term contract Baltimore should offer Flacco.

The Thinking Man’s Guide to NFL Conference Championship Games – Bleacher Report

An information-filled preview for each game on Championship Sunday. Find out how the Falcons not only own the fourth quarter under Matt Ryan, but are also the top scoring differential team in the first quarter since 2008. With Ravens/Patriots, a look at Baltimore’s fatigue, the bad news for rematches in this round, the great runs by No. 4 seeds since 1990, and New England’s absurd home-field advantage.

nehfa

Ravens Want to Win, But Patriots Need to Win – NBC Sports

Previewing the AFC Championship again, this time focusing on how the Patriots need a Super Bowl win to validate historic success since 2007.  Despite a 76-20 regular-season record since 2007, these teams have come up empty in the playoffs despite being the favorite each time. There is still plenty to play for with the Ravens as well, making their third AFC Championship since 2008, and looking for the Hollywood ending for Ray Lewis before he retires.

b6

NFL Conference Championship Predictions

For all the people who went 1-3 or worse last week, going 2-2 doesn’t sound so bad, though the AFC, my favorite conference, had my two wrong picks.

  • 49ers over Falcons, 23-17
  • Patriots over Ravens, 27-23

Please, no game-deciding special teams plays this year. Last year was brutal enough.