Tag: C.J. Stroud

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 18

~ Scott ~ 4 Comments

Just like that, we have made it through all 272 regular-season games in the 2023 NFL season. In Game No. 272, the Buffalo Bills pulled off a stunning turnaround from 6-6 to 11-6 and the No. 2 seed, coming back to win the AFC East for the fourth year in a row on a day the Patriots officially hit rock bottom as we likely saw the last of Bill Belichick on the sideline there.

The Steelers and Packers are back in the playoffs. We have a division with only winning teams for the first time since 1935. The winner of the NFC South is (barely) above .500 this season.

And not one goddamn tie all season, a huge win in my book.

As for the Week 18 drama, there were only 9 games with a comeback opportunity, but they were focused in the right games with playoff implications like Steelers-Ravens, Texans-Colts, Jaguars-Titans, Bears-Packers, and Bills-Dolphins.

But before we recap the final 16 games of the regular season, this is my favorite time to review how my preseason predictions for final team records fared. I put in a ton of work on these over the summer as I ended up doing 3 articles per team, so there was a lot of research to come up with fresh angles even if I was ultimately arriving at the same conclusion for each team.

Despite some concerns, I am happy to say I was off by an average of 2.06 wins, my 2nd-most accurate predictions since 2013. I nailed 6 teams to their exact record, including both No. 1 seeds, and I was within 2 games for 21-of-32 teams. I could have had 8 teams with an exact record, which would have been my personal best, but that damn Drew Lock touchdown drive against the Eagles in Seattle did me in. Likewise, I never imagined Patrick Mahomes would give the Raiders 14 points in 7 seconds on turnovers at home on Christmas.

There were 4 teams that I was off by 5-to-6 games for, and you can probably guess one as I made them a huge part of my season story, only to see that go up in smoke after 4 snaps in Week 1:

Yep, I had Aaron Rodgers leading the Jets to a 12-5 record and the No. 5 seed, essentially swapping places with the Dolphins, who I had getting swept by the Jets and finishing 9-8 and out of the playoffs. So much for that when his Achilles tore in Week 1. I’m not sure the Jets would have been an elite team this year with that line and struggles to run the ball, but I think the playoffs were certainly doable with Rodgers.

The first-year success of the Colts and Texans definitely took me by surprise in the AFC South. Missed badly on both of those teams, but I don’t think I’m alone in that. C.J. Stroud was kind of the bland rookie quarterback in this class. Anthony Richardson had the “wow factor” with the ability to run (but apparently his durability slider was turned off). Bryce Young was supposed to be this Improv Short King, but he only got his coach fired after 11 games and Carolina had one of the worst seasons ever. Stroud just hit early and was so impressive in that Bobby Slowik, a Kyle Shanahan disciple, offense with receivers that took a huge leap forward like Nico Collins and rookie Tank Dell.

As for the Rams, my initial thought on them was they’d be a sneaky wild card team this year with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald coming back healthy. But once I started digging into the roster, I had no clue who most of these other 50 guys were. Puka Nacua? Never heard of him. Kyren Williams? Who cares? But it was Puka stepping up early, Kyren coming around later, and this offense looks strong, and the defense has been respectable despite the massive turnover. Great job by Sean McVay and company to get to this point.

Those were my biggest misses, but for a season that I billed as the year of uncertainty, I’m proud of these results overall. Roughly a quarter of the league had a season-ending injury to their primary quarterback. Only 9 teams started the same quarterback in every game (lowest since 1999). A couple of playoff teams (Steelers, Bills) fired their offensive coordinator more than halfway through the season. It was a challenging season filled with blowouts in big matchups and so many low-scoring games on Sunday and Monday nights.

But I am ready for the playoffs, and my playoff picks in the AFC are what I’m most proud of as I can’t imagine many people nailed the top 3 seeds going the way they did, especially with the Bengals favored in the AFC North and the Chiefs favored to repeat, and I also had the Steelers getting the No. 7 seed with a 10-7 record.

  • 1, Baltimore (13-4)
  • 2. Buffalo (12-5)
  • 3. Kansas City (12-5)
  • 4. Jacksonville (10-7)
  • 5. NY Jets (12-5)
  • 6. Cincinnati (11-5)
  • 7. Pittsburgh (10-7)

My NFC picks were far less stellar, only getting 4-of-7 teams right (all fairly obvious ones), and none in the right seed.

  • 1. Philadelphia (12-5)
  • 2. San Francisco (12-5)
  • 3. New Orleans (12-5)
  • 4. Detroit (9-8)
  • 5. Dallas (12-5)
  • 6. Atlanta (9-8)
  • 7. Minnesota (8-9)

The Saints and Falcons were the teams I was high on because of the schedule, but they blew that golden opportunity. Hats off to Tampa Bay for overcoming the fact that they had to play the Eagles, Bills, and 49ers (went 0-3 in those games too) and the other NFC South teams didn’t, and Tampa still won the division. I liked Baker Mayfield to have a better individual season than Tom Brady did in 2022, but I figured he wouldn’t catch the breaks in close games to have a better record. But Baker surprisingly kept the turnovers low and they got to 9-8.

Finally, I think the Vikings are a playoff team if Kirk Cousins doesn’t tear his Achilles, so chalk that up to an Achilles injury in each conference screwing me up here. Cousins was playing some of his best ball when that happened, so we had to experience some fever dreams with Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens. Too bad. At least the close-game regression was real as the Vikings played a league-high 14 close games but only finished 6-8 in them a year after they were 11-0.

But we’ll have other opportunities to review the season and where things stand. Let’s get through these 16 games before I get into playoff mode.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

AFC EAST

We had one game for the division title and the other for a 15-game winning streak to come crashing down as Bill Belichick just had to fvck me out of a $$$ parlay win one last time.

Bills at Dolphins: The Paper Tiger Disintegrates

From 6-6 and the No. 11 seed at the bye week to 11-6 and the No. 2 seed going into the playoffs, no one circled the wagons like the Buffalo Bills this season. The numbers were always there when they were 6-6 with a scoring differential of over 100 points. Just stop turning the ball over so much and stop blowing these fourth-quarter leads in egregious fashion like the Denver game where they had 12 men on the field for a field goal that was missed, or when they let Mac Jones lead the single clutch touchdown drive of his career.

But the Bills pulled off this AFC East title with some help from the Dolphins, who choked away a Week 14 game to the Titans that I would call the worst blown lead of 2023. Then the Dolphins were blown out 56-19 in Baltimore a week ago, continuing their pattern of underperforming on both sides of the ball in big games, especially on offense and on the road. They have also been injured with some key players (Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, Bradley Chubb, Xavien Howard, etc.) missing this game.

But the Bills have their own injuries to deal with, and even in this game, the Bills tried desperately to throw this game away with 3 more turnovers from Josh Allen, who also botched the end of the first half with a completion short of the goal line with the Bills out of timeouts. No points there to go along with the turnovers all happening deep in Miami territory.

The Buffalo defense had Allen’s back in this one. After Allen’s lost fumble killed another scoring chance in a 14-7 game to end the third quarter, the defense forced a quick punt from the Dolphins. Deonte Harty returned that punt 96 yards for a game-tying touchdown with 13:42 left.

Allen led a go-ahead touchdown drive with 7:16 left while the Dolphins had another quick 3-and-out drive. Allen looked like he could put the game away on his own terms instead of putting it in the defense’s shaky hands again. He had an incredible 15-yard scramble on a 3rd-and-13, then the Bills faced a critical 4th-and-1 at the Miami 37 at the 2:00 warning.

I’m not kicking a 55-yard field goal unless maybe I have Justin Tucker as my kicker. Tyler Bass hasn’t earned that kind of reputation for me. I also hate to trust a defense that has already blown 4 leads in the fourth quarter, and you know Miami is more likely to go for a game-winning 2-point conversion than your average team would. No, I’m going to trust my insane quarterback to run up the gut for that first down on the sneak.

Except the Bills tried that and Allen was stopped short by the slimmest of margins. Oh well, I liked the decision anyway. Now it was on the defense, and after a couple of shaky snaps, they almost came away with a pick. On the very next play, they got the pick as Tua threw an awful pass that was picked off by Taylor Rapp with 1:13 left to seal the division title.

The Bills were definitely looking shaky for the playoffs, let alone the AFC East when they were 6-6. But this 5-0 streak has been built on mostly close wins outside of the Dallas rout. This was the fourth time since Week 14 that Buffalo won a game by no more than 7 points. They had 2 such wins in their previous 13 games.

Now the Bills get to host the Steelers, a favorable draw for the wild card round. Then perhaps they will host Kansas City for a change in the divisional round. This isn’t the best Buffalo team since 2020, but maybe it’s the year things fall in place for them. They are winning the close games, Allen is playing great when he’s not turning it over (he was 30-for-36 for 359 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 67 rushing yards outside of the turnover plays), and they are one of the best defensive teams.

The field also contains the weakest Kansas City team in the Patrick Mahomes era and a Baltimore team that has blown it in January before. Maybe this run propels the Bills all the way, or maybe they lose to Mason Rudolph next week.

Either way, it will be must-see TV. The Bills always belonged in this tournament and now we get to see if they can make it pay off.

Jets at Patriots: Hoods Up

Christ, you know it’s over when Belichick is losing a 17-3 snow game at home to the Jets. There goes the 15-game winning streak against the Jets. It was bound to end this year, but we thought that’d be at the hands of Aaron Rodgers, not a 70-yard passing performance from Trevor Siemian.

The conditions looked brutal, and I can’t imagine many players were enjoying themselves on that field. But it meant a little more to the Jets knowing about the 15-game losing streak and how this was expected to be Belichick’s last game as coach of the Patriots.

Bailey Zappe had 31 net passing yards on 37 pass plays thanks to the 7 sacks the Jets ripped through the line for. Just when you thought Belichick had one last fluke of a win in him after a Zappe interception was fumbled back to the Patriots with 2:44 left in a 9-3 game, Zappe made sure his next throw was intercepted too. Breece Hall hit the 50-yard “FU TD” and that was a wrap at 17-3. With a 4-13 record, Belichick finishes the worst season of his coaching career.

We’ve seen the Patriots without a quarterback. Now we’ll see how long they go without a quarterback and without a coach. That stay in the AFC East basement may be longer than this one season.

AFC SOUTH

We didn’t know for sure Saturday night, but that was the de facto division title game thanks to the Jaguars blowing it on Sunday in Tennessee. C.J. Stroud runs this division now until the Colts can keep Anthony Richardson healthy.

Jaguars at Titans: Full Collapse Revenge

Last year, it was the Titans collapsing with a 7-game losing streak to blow the AFC South after a Week 18 loss to the Jaguars. This year, the Jaguars were 8-3 before collapsing with a 1-5 finish, only beating the Panthers last week. That means Trevor Lawrence lost his final 5 starts of the year.

This game wasn’t all on him as the Titans put on a spirited home effort with Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry perhaps playing their final games for the Titans. Henry rushed for 153 yards and a touchdown.

The Jaguars trailed 28-13 going into the fourth quarter and needed a miracle. After a touchdown pass to Evan Engram, the Jags intercepted Tannehill and set up Lawrence 28 yards away from a tie. But all the inefficiencies in this Jacksonville offense from Lawrence’s inaccurate throws to bad runs to penalties led to a terrible drive that consumed 5 minutes off the clock and ultimately came up empty on fourth down at the 1-yard line. Lawrence tried one of the worst quarterback sneaks you’ll ever see as his initial lunge (a la Drew Brees) was well short, then his stretch didn’t get the job done either.

Lawrence got the ball back with 2:18 and 75 yards to go, and he couldn’t even get a first down. He missed a deep shot to an open Calvin Ridley, then threw wildly inaccurate again on a 4th-and-2 to Engram with 1:47 left. Season over. Jags (9-8) were finished.

Even at 8-3, I had a hard time trusting this Jacksonville team as a serious contender. Maybe they finish the job in the AFC South if Lawrence never gets hurt against the Bengals in Week 13, and he did have multiple injuries since to deal with. But even before that, his play wasn’t vastly improved from last year, and the Ridley connection wasn’t the greatest. Losing Christian Kirk hurt this offense more than gaining Ridley helped it.

Now with the way Houston has finished this season with C.J. Stroud, the Jaguars are going to enter 2024 as second-class citizens in the division they never really owned. They took advantage of Tennessee’s 2022 implosion, and the Titans made sure they got them back on Sunday by taking them out for 2023.

But if a certain quarterback in Indy stays healthy and pans out, both of these teams could be looking up to those other teams for years to come. I think 2024 is the year Lawrence will finally start getting held to a higher standard, and with the day soon coming when we start talking about a second contract, I think it’s in Jacksonville’s best interest to wait that one out.

Texans at Colts: Can’t Be Worse Off at Quarterback and Defense 

This was a game I immediately flipped on my spread and total picks for last Monday night. I’m talking straight up deleting what I was writing and going the opposite way before sending them in.

Changing to the under was a good move, but taking the team (Colts) that was worse at quarterback and defense in a big game during this time of year? What was I thinking? Week 2 when the Colts won 31-20 was eons ago. Hell, Anthony Richardson started that game. What did it matter now?

But this game was there for the taking for Indy on Saturday night. They just fell short, and they did it in a way that has me nervous about Shane Steichen in the big moments next time. But the game also reinforced the idea that he won’t be ready to compete for real in this division until he has a healthy Richardson who can go toe to toe with C.J. Stroud in a game like this. Gardner Minshew was not up for it.

Stroud came out throwing a haymaker with a 75-yard touchdown pass to Nico Collins on Houston’s first offensive snap. But despite that brilliant throw, the Houston offense was being contained, and the Colts got back into it by riding their best player, Jonathan Taylor. He finished with 188 rushing yards and a 49-yard touchdown run that helped tie the game at 14 in the third quarter.

But for all of Taylor’s dominance, it only did further damage to getting Minshew in any sort of rhythm where they could rely on him down the stretch. Note that right after Taylor’s long touchdown run, the Colts dialed up 5 straight runs, then asked Minshew to convert a 3rd-and-9. He couldn’t get a completion, and the Colts missed a 57-yard field goal off the upright. That short field for Houston led to the Texans taking a 17-14 lead on a 51-yard field goal.

After the Colts tied the game, Stroud went to work on a surgical drive in the final quarter. He threw for 82 yards on the drive, which was capped off by a 3-yard run from Devin Singletary. The Texans missed the extra point, leaving the door open for the Colts at 23-17 with 6:20 left.

But make note of the difference in strategy for these teams. While the Texans relied on Stroud, who only got any production out of Collins and tight end Dalton Shultz, the Colts could not rely on Minshew to drive them down the field. It was going to be the run game, which took a hit in efficiency with an injury along the offensive line to Braden Smith. Taylor also temporarily left the game injured and did not look as great down the stretch.

In the last 1.5 quarters, the Colts ran the ball 16 times for 27 yards with a 25% rushing success rate. Eleven of those 16 carries failed to gain more than 2 yards, and the longest run in that stretch was 6 yards.

Minshew was able to hit Josh Downs for a 28-yard gain to get the drive going, but the Colts continued to rely on the run, even choosing to run on 3rd-and-6 and 3rd-and-5 situations that almost every team calls passes for. One such run worked thanks to a penalty on Houston (automatic first down) and the other did convert at the 2-minute warning with the Colts looking to score the touchdown as late as they could.

But everything went to shit after the 2-minute warning hit. The Colts called 2 more Taylor runs, and he went out of bounds both times, burning a total of 12 seconds, saving timeouts for Houston, and setting up a 3rd-and-2. That is counter to the clock strategy if you’re so concerned about not leaving Stroud time to answer in an expected 24-23 game after the touchdown and extra point.

Taylor got the call again on 3rd-and-2 and came up a yard short, setting up a huge 4th-and-1 at the Houston 15. Instead of having a play to run quickly like another Taylor run or a quarterback sneak, the Colts let the clock go down to 1:06 and called a timeout.

What the hell? There’s burning the clock and then there’s taking so damn long that you just blew your shot of getting another possession in case you don’t get this. If you get stopped around 1:20 with 3 timeouts left, at least you can quickly create another possession. But by blowing that timeout, Steichen put the game on this 4th-and-1, and he was still 15 yards away from the end zone on what was not a good night for his offense.

Worse, Taylor came off the field for the pivotal play, and after calling 7 straight runs, now they decided to let Minshew throw to a backup running back in Tyler Goodson, a player with 6 career catches who had no touches on the night.

While the play was there, the throw wasn’t, and Minshew and Goodson failed to connect. The Texans ended up running it three times, taking an intentional safety, and the Colts tried to lateral around the free kick before the game ended. Season over for Indy and Texans in the playoffs.

I really don’t care if he thinks the running back was open and it was a good play. You can’t put your quarterback and cold running back in that spot after calling 7 straight runs. That’s the kind of throw a Drew Brees could make with a blindfold because he is so used to passing throughout the whole game. He’s in rhythm. He’s also much more accurate than Minshew, but the whole process there after the 2-minute warning was mind-blowingly bad.

You can try playing the clock game, but don’t play yourself. The Colts botched this badly and now another season is over short of the postseason. They better hope Richardson stays healthy and can do plays like the Tush Push a la Jalen Hurts, because that’s a sure conversion if Steichen had his Philadelphia guys on that one.

NFC NORTH

The Lions suffered a big injury (Sam LaPorta) on their way to another win over Minnesota that still left them with a No. 3 seed. The Packers closed this time at home in Week 18 to make the playoffs behind a stellar game from Jordan Love and the 3rd-down defense.

Bears at Packers: Matt LaFleur Moves to 10-0 vs. Chicago

I spent more time in the summer researching the Bears than any other team. I landed on a prediction of 7-10 and behind the Packers, who I had finishing 8-9 in Jordan Love’s first season as the starter.

Well, the Packers got to 9-8 thanks to sweeping the Bears in Weeks 1 and 18. It was good enough for the playoffs too just as it would have been last year when the team lost at home to Detroit in the final game of the Aaron Rodgers era.

But Matt LaFleur simply owns the Bears. He is now 10-0 against them and every win has been by at least 7 points. Jordan Love was fantastic in this game, completing 27-of-32 passes for 316 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no picks. He did lose a fumble on a scramble that left the game in some doubt, but the Bears remain one of the worst comeback teams in NFL history under Matt Eberflus and Justin Fields, and they were not able to erase the 8-point deficit in the final quarter.

That doesn’t mean the Packers made it easy in this quick-moving game (2 hours and 35 minutes). There were only 13 possessions in the entire game, and the Packers  wasted a pair in the first half when they missed a short field goal and failed to get one off to end the half, a mental error by the offense.

Fortunately, the Bears never got the ball in the end zone as the Green Bay defense stepped up with 3 sacks on third downs. Their fifth sack of Fields came on a 2nd-and-16 after the Bears reached Green Bay territory, stifling that drive as well. The Packers got the ball back with 6:08 left, and between good runs and smart throws by Love, they ran out the clock on Chicago to secure their playoff berth.

I don’t know if the Packers are a real threat to Dallas right now. But it makes sense that they were a team that improved in the second half of the season given not only Love’s inexperience but just how little experience the rest of the offense (minus running backs) had going into the season. We probably didn’t hammer that point home enough, and it’s not like this is about developing Christian Watson (disappointing year) and Romeo Doubs. It’s been Jayden Reed, a 2nd-round rookie, and Dontayvion Wicks who have been very productive this year. Reed had 112 yards in this game and Wicks caught both of Love’s touchdowns.

Even Bo Melton, a 7th-round pick from 2022 I never even heard of until a week ago, has come on just in time for Green Bay. He had 105 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings last week and another 5 catches for 62 yards in this game.

The Packers are making it work with Love, who finished second in the league with 32 touchdown passes this year. Tale as old as time, the Packers look better off than Chicago at the quarterback position, and that no doubt played a big difference in the latest Green Bay sweep. This could have been the Bears in the 9-8 wild card position if they had stepped up more against the Packers this year.

Now with the No. 1 pick (thanks, Carolina) and the No. 9 pick, we’ll see what the Bears do at the most important roles on the team.

Vikings at Lions: Offense Shines in Pyrrhic Victory

I can understand why the Lions went full pedal this week. They had a very outside shot of getting the No. 2 seed if the Cowboys and Eagles choked (one did). Still, you get nervous playing your studs in a game like this, and sure enough, the Lions lost tight end Sam LaPorta to a hyperextended knee. He’ll likely miss this playoff run unless it reaches the Super Bowl, and even then, we’ll see.

But it is cool to see Detroit win 12 games, something it only did in 1991, the last season the Lions won a playoff game. This game was a lot like the Week 16 win over Minnesota with Nick Mullens approaching another 400-yard day, but he also threw a couple of big picks again. Jared Goff and the offense shined with all the studs scoring touchdowns (LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and Amon-Ra St. Brown).

But LaPorta is a dimension they’ll miss at tight end when they take on the Rams this Sunday night.

NFC EAST

The streak continues. There has not been a repeat winner in the NFC East since the Eagles in 2001-04. Their collapse this year was something to behold, but not necessarily that much of a shock if you paid attention to how they got to 10-1 and how the Cowboys were good at blowing bad teams out.

Cowboys at Commanders: About What You Expected

With a 38-10 win, the Cowboys won the NFC East, secured the No. 2 seed, and notched their 9th win of 20-plus points this year, tying the 1999 Rams for the second most in a season in NFL history. Only the 2007 Patriots (10) had more 20-point wins, and it might be worth noting that neither those Patriots nor Rams won any playoff games by more than 12 points. But they did at least get to the Super Bowl those years with the Rams winning it all.

Dak Prescott has owned Washington his whole career, Sam Howell was lousy down the stretch of 2023, and it’s no surprise the touchdown pass leader threw 4 more scores against the worst defense this year. Ron Rivera should be gone on Monday.

About the only thing that didn’t go well for Dallas was kicker Brandon Aubrey. After making his first 35 field goals this season, he had one blocked from 32 yards and another miss off the upright from 36 yards. Let’s hope that isn’t a sign of the things to come in the playoffs for him after an almost-perfect season.

The Cowboys have high expectations for this postseason now that the Eagles have faded to the wild card, and the only team that’s ahead of Dallas in the standings is San Francisco. We’ve already seen the Cowboys beat the Lions, controversial ending or not.

Time to turn all these fancy numbers into some playoff wins, Dallas.

Eagles at Giants: Viking-Ass Team

On the day the Eagles improved to 10-1 with an overtime win over Buffalo, I said they look more like the 2022 Vikings than they do the 2022 Eagles. The 2022 Vikings are the only team in NFL history to win more than 11 games with a negative scoring differential.

Several people (read: Eagles fans) didn’t like the tweet at the time, but I can only call them when I see them. The 2023 Eagles are my greatest case of fraud detection since the 2019 Patriots started 8-0. The Eagles limped to a 1-5 finish, getting blown out by the 49ers and Cowboys in big games, embarrassing themselves against Drew Lock (Seahawks) and the Cardinals, and now a 27-10 rout at the hands of the lowly Giants.

The Eagles just barely finished with a positive scoring differential (+5), but it is still the 5th lowest for a team with at least 11 wins in NFL history:

The latest loss is the result when your defense continues to get shredded as Tyrod Taylor threw for 297 yards, and the offense suffers too many injuries. DeVonta Smith and D’Andre Swift were already out to start the game. A.J. Brown soon joined them with an injury. Jalen Hurts injured his finger and eventually left the game early after the score grew to 24-0 and the Cowboys were up big on Washington, making the No. 5 seed a near certainty for the Eagles.

Plenty of days to cover the Eagles-Bucs game, so no need to start writing the same narratives I’ll be leaning on this week here. But let’s just say things are trending terribly for this team and it would be a real shock if this led to another deep playoff run from Philly.

NFC SOUTH

The Saints took too long to heat up on offense this year, and their playoff bid came up a game short as Tampa Bay was able to take care of business in Carolina, which completed one of the worst seasons in NFL history.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Back-to-Back Shutouts for Carolina

It was ugly but the Buccaneers leaned on their defense and the fact they were playing one of the worst teams in the Super Bowl era to pull out a 9-0 win and the NFC South title for the third year in a row.

Baker Mayfield was hurting throughout the game but at least he still threw for over 100 yards, unlike Bryce Young who finished with 94 yards, and nearly half of that came on a 42-yard pass to D.J. Chark that was fumbled through the end zone, a game-saving and possibly season-saving play for the Bucs in this one.

Carolina’s kicker situation wasn’t great this year, and after missing a 52-yard field goal to end the third quarter, the Buccaneers turned that good field position into a 39-yard field goal and a 9-0 lead with 10:18 left.

If you’ve been following the Panthers this year or really the last 5 years, you know that’s basically an insurmountable lead for this team. The Bucs forced a strip sack and the offense ran out the final 6:19 to clinch the division with a 9-8 record, which is better than 8-9 the last I checked. At least one Florida team wasn’t going to blow the division title this Sunday.

The Panthers finish the season with 2 wins and 0 snaps with a fourth-quarter lead. Both wins came on walk-off field goals.

  • Even the 1976 Buccaneers (0-14) blew 1 4th-quarter lead.
  • Even the 2008 Lions (0-16) blew 4 4th-quarter leads.
  • Even the 2017 Browns (0-16) blew 1 4th-quarter lead.

The Panthers are the first team since the 2008 Browns to get shutout in consecutive games. Carolina, you were truly awful this year.

Falcons at Saints: Hit the Road, Art

This game was my favorite over (42.5) of the week as both teams moved the ball very well when they met earlier this season. I just didn’t think the Saints (48 points) would cover the over themselves after a little “fvck you touchdown” to end it that set off Arthur Smith at midfield:

https://twitter.com/NFLonCBS/status/1744103230500422103

After another 7-10 season with baffling usage of his offensive players and failing to take advantage of a weak schedule, this is the end of the road for Smith in Atlanta. The team barely waited until midnight to announce his firing.

What a way to go out, a 31-point loss to your main rival and that little tantrum. Do I think he had a point about the Saints rubbing it in with barely a minute left in a 41-17 game? Yeah, I think that was weak. But he could have expressed it better than this.

Derek Carr threw 4 touchdowns and finished the season strong, but it was just too late after a slow start for the offense. The 9-8 record wasn’t good enough for the playoffs, and you can look a that 1-point loss in Green Bay as the decisive one since that’s what got the Packers ahead of New Orleans. The Saints missed a late field goal in that one as Blake Grupe showed some serious choker DNA. Basically, if they kept Wil Lutz as their kicker this year, they’d probably be in the playoffs.

But both teams should be ashamed of not taking advantage of their schedules. They lived up to the expectations of not having many Super Bowl contenders. Hell, even the Jaguars didn’t get to 10 wins and that was supposed to be one of their hardest games alongside Detroit.

AFC NORTH

The Steelers started Week 18 needing a win in rainy Baltimore, and no one really cared about anything in Browns-Bengals except for the outfit worn by Jake Browning’s girlfriend. That backup is winning in life.

Steelers at Ravens: Sweep the Top Seed but Lose to the Pats and Cardinals (Obviously)

When the Steelers nearly turned the ball over 3 times on the opening drive, you could tell the rain was going to be a significant factor. In the end, each team lost 2 fumbles, but the Steelers had an extra 4 fumbles that they did not lose.

Mason Rudolph still managed to complete 18-of-20 passes in the rain, but 71 of his 152 yards came on a short throw to Diontae Johnson that was mostly YAC for the game-winning touchdown to break a 7-7 tie to start the fourth quarter. Is that the kind of play that happens if the Ravens had Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton playing in the secondary? Hard to say, but it gives Rudolph 3 touchdown passes of 60-plus yards this year, which is behind only Tua Tagovailoa (4) for the 2023 lead. That’s an absurd but true stat. I’m not convinced that means Rudolph is the long-term answer at quarterback, but some of it does speak to his willingness to give these receivers chances that I think Kenny Pickett lacks in his game right now. That’s why I’d start Rudolph in the playoffs.

And yes, there will be playoffs after the Jaguars blew it in Tennessee and punched Pittsburgh’s ticket early on Sunday. Unfortunately, the Steelers are unlikely to have T.J. Watt after friendly fire took him down with an MCL injury in this game. It’s considered a multiple week injury, but you know he’ll at least lobby to play. Just can’t see that being a smart move or ultimately allowed by the team.

It deserves an asterisk for the rested starters (not to mention the dropped passes in Week 5) but the Steelers did sweep the top-seeded Ravens and were the only team to beat them by more than 3 points this year. If Pittsburgh somehow did pull out a win next week and went to Baltimore for the divisional round, that could be amusing as Lamar Jackson has been I the league since 2018 and has literally never had a good game against the Steelers. He rarely plays them too, but Pittsburgh has been getting the upper hand in this rivalry. But good luck getting past the wild card round.

Browns at Bengals: Still the Coach of the Year

Why exactly did the Browns start Jeff Driskel at quarterback? Felt like Kevin Stefanski, who should still win Coach of the Year, wanted to show off and win a game with a 5th different quarterback this year. But Driskel was dreadful, the Bengals led 31-0, and only in garbage time did Driskel deliver a couple of touchdown throws. But hey, Browns over 13.5 points still hit.

The game did make some history though as the 2023 AFC North is the first division since the 1935 West to have nothing but teams with a winning record. The Bengals finished 9-8 and the other teams all won at least 10 games and made the playoffs.

NFC WEST

Not as many stakes here as the 49ers and Rams rested key starters, but both games had a fourth-quarter comeback with the winning team converting a 2-point conversion in a 21-20 final.

Rams at 49ers: The Rare Carson Wentz Comeback

It’s kind of fitting that a Carson Wentz-led comeback of 13 points in the second half against a No. 1 seed would only happen in a game where both teams were not all that interested in winning. If the Rams truly cared about making sure they won and got the No. 6 seed, they would have started Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Aaron Donald, and maybe Cooper Kupp.

They did play Puka Nacua, who stayed in long enough to set the rookie records for yards and catches in a season. He also caught a helpful touchdown from Wentz, who ended up running 17 times for 56 yards and a touchdown. I guess Sean McVay didn’t really care since this could be one of the last auditions that Wentz gets as a starter in the NFL.

But the 49ers didn’t score on their 4 second-half possessions, the Rams took the lead on a touchdown drive that got jumpstarted with a 48-yard flag for defensive pass interference, and Sam Darnold was unable to set up a field goal for the 49ers, who will be content with the bye week.

But it is a bit concerning that the 49ers are 1-4 in close games and 0-4 at 4QC/GWD opportunities. This will come up during the month in playoff previews, but you’re just not likely to get through a whole Super Bowl run, even if it’s 3 games long, without beating someone good in a close game. This team will have to show it can do that and it’s not like we don’t have years of evidence in San Francisco of Shanahan-coached teams not stepping up in these moments. This loss didn’t matter, but the next time the season will be on the line.

But good for the Rams getting to 10 wins as I really wanted to pick them as a dark horse for the wild card this summer, then I got scared away after not recognizing their roster outside of Stafford, Kupp, and Donald. Really good effort from McVay and company here. And we get to see the perfect wild card matchup in Detroit next Sunday night.

Seahawks at Cardinals: Matt Prater’s Lousy Day

Congrats to James Conner for clinching his first 1,000-yard rushing season in the NFL. He was my favorite prop pick in Week 18, and he delivered in a big way with 150 yards on the ground and 54 more through the air.

It’s just too bad the Cardinals let it go to waste as well as a sweet trick play on a field goal for a touchdown pass from Kyler Murray to Trey McBride to take a 20-13 lead in the fourth quarter.

Matt Prater could have basically iced the game with 3:00 left on a 43-yard field goal that would have made it 23-13 after the Seahawks used their final timeout, but the normally reliable kicker missed. The Cardinals folded like a cheap suit on defense, and in just 4 plays, the Seahawks were in the end zone on a 34-yard touchdown from Geno Smith to Tyler Lockett, who also caught the 2-point conversion to go up 21-20 with 1:54 left.

At this point, it was already clear from Green Bay that the Packers were winning the game and going to the playoffs, keeping Seattle out. That probably influenced the 2-point call too.

The Cardinals still had plenty of time to answer, but after a Conner run to the 30, they botched the end game. Not quite as bad as Steichen and the Colts on Saturday night, but still pretty bad with Murray running out of bounds on a play that took time and went down as a 2-yard sack. Then a Conner run lost a yard.

Prater can blast kicks from 50-plus yards, but he was already shaky on the previous kick and again failed to deliver on the 51-yard game-winning field goal as time expired. The Cardinals finish 4-13 and will have some decisions to make. The Seahawks, who will finish with a league-high 6 game-winning drives, are 9-8 again, but this time they didn’t get the help from Green Bay losing at home to get in a tournament they were unlikely going to advance in past next week.

AFC WEST

Stakes? No, nothing to see here.

Broncos at Raiders: Nope, We Don’t Care

The Raiders won 27-14 as both teams finished 8-9. Next.

Chiefs at Chargers: Easton Stuck in Goal to Go

The Chiefs set milestones aside and rested Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce (among others) with the No. 3 seed a lock. Easton Stick somehow dropped back 63 times, including 13 runs for 77 yards, in a weird game for the Chargers, but they blew it inside the 5-yard line early and late. A Stick fumble was scooped up for a 97-yard touchdown return, then the Chargers couldn’t get it in late and settled for a field goal to take a 12-10 lead. Backup starter Blaine Gabbert had enough legs for a couple of scrambles to set up a game-winning field goal (13-12), and the Chargers of course had no answer in the final minute.

The 2023 Chargers finish 1-10 at 4QC/GWD opportunities and lead the league with 5 blown leads in the fourth quarter. The Chargering brand is still strong.

Next week: It’s the playoffs. I’ll have links to in-depth previews and betting picks (props, upset pick, computer picks, etc.) for every game. The real fun might not start until the divisional round, but there are still plenty of stories from these games. With the way this season has gone, who knows, the Super Bowl teams may be in action on wild card weekend.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 10

~ Scott ~ 11 Comments

Like I said on Saturday, if you ignore the island game mess, the NFL had a solid Week 10 lined up. Sunday proved to be one of the best days of the season so far with a few big upsets in the AFC North and a handful of games where teams kept exchanging scores before someone kicked a field goal with no time left.

The NFL may not have sent its best to Germany again, nor did it bother using the flex option on Sunday night so we didn’t have to see the Jets fail to reach the end zone again. But with the Chiefs, Eagles, and Dolphins all on a bye week, it is hard to argue with Week 10’s quality. Sometimes the bad weeks on paper tun out to be some of the best played weeks.

In all, we had 10 out of 13 games (MNF pending) with a comeback opportunity. While there were technically only two lead changes in the fourth quarter in Week 10, and one of those didn’t happen until the clock showed 0:00, it was a fantastic week for watching teams match scores in the fourth quarter.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Lions at Chargers: Game of the Week or Year?

Ladies and gentlemen, the Chargers are back. This was the Week 10 game I had circled, because I knew we were not going to see the Chargers cruise to an easy win like they had in prime time the last two weeks against the Bears and Jets. We were going to see the Chargers in their element: late afternoon, Justin Herbert trying to bail out Brandon Staley’s defense in a 7-point game in the fourth quarter with a wild finish.

But this was not your usual case of Chargering, because the Chargers actually never led in this game despite the 41-38 final and the Los Angeles offense scoring five straight touchdown drives of at least 68 yards to end the game.

Last season, we saw the Lions tie an NFL record by scoring 45 points in a wire-to-wire loss at home against Seattle in a 48-45 game. This time, the Lions won wire-to-wire despite allowing 38 points. It is only the 20th time that has happened in NFL history.

For the Chargers, I think it was the kind of game we’ve come to expect from them. Herbert played great, he only had one turnover, no sacks, and he threw for 323 yards and 4 touchdowns with a dominant Keenan Allen game (11 catches for 175 yards, 2 touchdowns).

For the Lions, I think it showed the great potential of this offense at full strength. David Montgomery returned and had a 75-yard rushing touchdown to go along with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs rushing for 77 yards and two touchdowns. Jared Goff was very good with 333 yards and no turnovers, and Amon-Ra St. Brown was dominant with 8 catches for 156 yards and a touchdown. Detroit had 533 yards of offense.

If you wanted to nitpick, the game does show some concern that the Lions may be a bit of a paper tiger (or paper lion) on defense. They won’t be able to pressure the top offenses and keep them down on the scoreboard like they’ll need to if they’re going to win a Super Bowl. The Chargers looked great for the most part on offense, and Detroit’s offense had to be spectacular to pull out the win.

Even on the game-winning drive, which started with 3:34 left, we saw the Lions bypass a 44-yard field goal on 4th-and-2 to make sure they could set up the field goal as the final snap. Hard to believe that happened in a tied game, but Dan Campbell has the reputation he does for a reason. Still, you think if he trust his defense he’d consider the field goal with 1:47 left to take the lead. But if you are that concerned about Herbert going for a touchdown, then I understand the call.

Goff delivered the 6-yard gain to Sam LaPorta, which I greatly appreciated, and the win was there. Glad to see our Chargers back on brand.

I would argue the Chargers have played the two most entertaining games of the 2023 season, and they were both home losses to the Dolphins and Lions. I’d probably give the Miami game the edge since it had multiple lead changes and the highlights were a bit stronger. It also ended on a defensive stop, a foreign concept to Staley.

Browns at Ravens: Vintage 2022 Baltimore Football

I just said a couple of weeks ago how no one can stay on top for long this season before getting knocked down a peg. The Ravens were getting a lot of hype, understandably, this week before they had their chance to sweep the Browns and put more of a chokehold on their AFC North lead.

But we have already watched this team beat itself against the Colts and Steelers, shades of what they did often in 2022 even before Lamar Jackson was lost to injury. Sure enough, despite leading at home 14-0, 17-3, 24-9, then 31-17 in the fourth quarter, the Ravens did it again in a shocking 33-31 loss to the Browns, who trailed for all but 40 seconds in the game. They literally threw a pick-six on the second play from scrimmage and trailed until the field goal went through with no time left for their only lead of the game. Hard to top that. The Ravens are just 1-3 in close games this year.

To be fair, there was some fool’s gold feeling about the leads in this game. The pick-6 was a fantastic defensive play, but it was still a tipped ball that bounced the right way. The Ravens also got a 39-yard touchdown run from their new toy Keaton Mitchell, but he somehow finished the game with 3 carries for 34 yards. None of Baltimore’s other 23 runs gained more than 9 yards, and Cleveland had the better ground game with 36 carries for 178 yards.

Baltimore was up 14-0 and Jackson was only 3-of-3 for 30 yards. If Deshaun Watson could just calm down from his horrible start, then they were going to have a chance as the running game was finding traction, and the Ravens have a recent history of melting down after blowing a handful of multi-score leads last year, including 21 points to Miami and 17 points to Buffalo.

The Browns were able to block a 55-yard field goal by Justin Tucker, which is no easy feat, and they intercepted Jackson late in the half, but didn’t get any points out of it after a curious decision to let backup P.J. Walker throw a Hail Mary instead of attempting a 60-yard field goal.

Odell Beckham Jr. showed vintage speed on a 40-yard touchdown catch to start the third quarter, but the Browns started to get in a groove and matched it with their own touchdown. But after Myles Garrett sacked Jackson on a 3rd-and-17, the Browns seemed to commit a fatal mistake with a muffed punt, giving the Ravens the ball back at the Cleveland 12. Despite being that close to the end zone, the Ravens used 3:17 on the clock to go those 12 yards for a touchdown and take a 31-17 lead with 11:34 left. It was a ghastly drive, but it was effective in taking off more time all thanks to penalties on both teams, including a Cleveland penalty that wiped out another Jackson pick.

You normally think the game should be over here, but the Browns drove for another 75-yard touchdown, then the bounce finally went their way as they got their own tipped Jackson pass at the line that was returned for a touchdown with 8:16 left. But instead of tying the game, kicker Dustin Hopkins missed the extra point wide left. Cleveland still trailed 31-30.

The offense burned a little clock, but with the group out of sync, no strong running game to rely on, and an inexcusable delay of game penalty, the Ravens soon punted it back with 4:55 left.

Cleveland’s drive was not pretty, and it had to recover a Watson strip-sack, but it was effective in getting the job done. Watson had a big 16-yard scramble into Baltimore territory, then Jerome Ford’s 12-yard run made a field goal likely. The Browns were able to set it up as the last play and Hopkins redeemed himself with a 40-yard field goal to win it 33-31 to send the Browns to 6-3 and right on the heels of the Ravens (7-3).

It has to be frustrating for Baltimore fans when it looked just like one of 2022’s losses. No lead feels truly safe with this team, and that was not the case in Baltimore for a solid two decades.

As for Cleveland, going into games like this with Watson at quarterback can’t feel good. He did enough to salvage this one, but that defense and running game are going to have to be on point for this to work in January.

But it is getting more likely that the Browns will be in that playoff mix. They could even win the division now that they secured a split with the Ravens, who lost another they should have won.

Texans at Bengals: Chapter 1 in a Future AFC Rivalry?

I think the 2019-22 seasons were largely about figuring out who would rival Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC in the 2020s. We needed new power dynamics in the conference like we used to have with teams like the Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Chargers, and some key appearances from the Ravens and Broncos.

Some contenders emerged like the Bills and Bengals, but we might be able to throw Houston into the mix soon if C.J. Stroud is going to be like this.

It was even a step back from his record-setting performance against Tampa Bay last week, but Stroud still managed to impress with another 356 passing yards in leading Houston to 30 points, and it could have been a lot more with that if the Texans protected the ball better. The Texans had 544 yards of offense, but between Stroud losing 2 fumbles early and throwing a shocking interception with a 10-point lead with 3:33 left, Houston had to sweat this one out after dominating for much of the game.

But even with all the turnovers, I want to point out that Stroud produced these big numbers as a 6.5-point road underdog against a defense that has been limiting great offenses the last few years. He also did it without No. 1 wide receiver Nico Collins, who was inactive, a story I didn’t even know about until the game was almost over. Yet, you heard all week how Tee Higgins was going to be out for this game for Cincinnati, and Ja’Marr Chase was questionable, even though he played and had 124 yards and a touchdown.

But the Texans didn’t sweat the Collins injury, and Stroud threw for 172 yards on 7-of-8 passing to Noah Brown, a forgotten receiver from Dallas who was best known for confusing viewers if CeeDee Lamb just added to his stats. Brown was going to be at best the No. 4 wideout in this offense behind Collins, rookie Tank Dell, veteran slot Robert Woods, and maybe even No. 5 behind John Metchie, a second-round pick in 2022. But Brown had 153 yards against Tampa Bay last week and 172 in this game with Stroud.

That’s why I’m saying if Stroud’s going to be legitimate like this, then we could have a new layer to this AFC. Imagine what things can look like if he gets a defense at some point soon under coach DeMeco Ryans.

There were some miscues in this game that he will hopefully learn from. After Joe Burrow threw a horrible interception in the end zone, his second in the fourth quarter, with 3:53 left, this looked like game over with Houston leading 27-17. But three plays later, Stroud threw his own horrible pick that was nearly returned for a touchdown in a spot where he could have ended the game. It was only his second interception of the season, but like I always say, this Cincinnati defense gets the timely ones like that.

Joe Mixon capped off a 4-yard touchdown drive and it was 27-24 with plenty of time. Houston even helped with another 3-and-out after Stroud was unable to put it away on a 3rd-and-3.

Believe it or not in Week 10, but this was the first time all season the Bengals had a 4QC/GWD opportunity on offense. It only took two plays for the Bengals to be deep in the red zone after Tyler Boyd took a short pass and ran 64 yards with it. But Burrow was sacked, then Boyd dropped a go-ahead score on third-and-goal. Not the most egregious drop, and not a definite game winner, but it definitely hurt, and it was a play he usually makes.

The Bengals had to settle for a 31-yard game-tying field goal and hope for overtime. But it was a bad day for defenses on the field late. Stroud was able to shake off his mistakes and found two more 20-yard plays on the day to set up his new backup kicker, Matt Ammendola, for a 38-yard field goal to win the game with no time left.

Stroud just posted back-to-back games with 350 passing yards and a game-winning drive. That’s as many such games as Tony Romo and Russell Wilson have in their careers, and it’s more than the one career game for Burrow, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, and Lamar Jackson – the other AFC contenders who have been floated as Mahomes’ rival in the last 5 years. If you’re curious, Mahomes’ number for this is 4 games.

Granted, this 350-yard game with a game-winning drive for Stroud could have been a 300-yard game with a 10-point win or 27-24 win had the rookie converted either of his first two 3rd-down opportunities. But the Bengals have fooled better quarterbacks into bigger mistakes before, and Stroud overcame all of that for a huge win as Houston (5-4) secures a key tiebreaker over the Bengals (5-4), who are in trouble again with a trip to Baltimore on a short week coming up this Thursday night.

Now granted, it was only a couple of weeks ago when Houston lost 15-13 to Carolina, the only win for the Panthers this season. It was also only in 2017 when I said Deshaun Watson was on pace for the greatest rookie quarterback season ever, and we know how that eventually turned out.

But after closing one of the darkest chapters in Texans history, the fans must be thrilled about this first chapter for Stroud.

49ers at Jaguars: Super Dud

My only comfortable read on this game was to take the under 45, because I wasn’t feeling very confident in the offenses going up against these defenses. In the end, it was one of the most lopsided games of the year as the 49ers rolled them 34-3. They even tried to get Christian McCaffrey a late touchdown to try extending his streak to 18 games, but it ended on a day where basically everyone else scored, including Deebo Samuel in his return game.

The 49ers were struggling with turnovers and the Jacksonville defense was tied for the league lead in takeaways. But the 49ers won the turnover battle 4-0, and that had a lot to do with the blowout score. Trevor Lawrence was picked twice and coughed up a fumble, and Christian Kirk had a bad fumble inside the 10 in the third quarter that sucked all the life out of this one at 20-3. The 49ers drove 81 yards the other way to make it 27-3 with Samuel’s 23-yard touchdown run and it was a wrap.

The bye week served the 49ers (6-3) well as this is still the most talented team in the league. The Jaguars (6-3) were outclassed, and I think there are legitimate concerns for why this offense isn’t producing more. The situational stats are lousy on the season, Calvin Ridley has not had a big impact, and Lawrence is not taking the next step forward. They look like they have a hard ceiling on where they can go right now.

Saints at Vikings: Dobbs Delivers in Starting Debut

The Vikings have gone from 1-4 to the longest active winning streak at 5 games after another one-possession win over the Saints in the first start for Joshua Dobbs. He has picked up the offense quickly and was excellent in this game with 268 yards, no interceptions, and he ran for 44 yards and another touchdown, showing off his mobility that has been foreign to this Minnesota offense for a long time.

But the Vikings did almost collapse from a 27-3 lead in the second half. An ineffective Derek Carr was injured and replaced by Jameis Winston, who led a pair of touchdown drives to make it 27-19. With a couple of 2-point conversion runs by Alvin Kamara, we almost were witnesses to the fabled 8+8+8 comeback from a 24-point deficit.

But the skillset of Winston that makes him dangerous to face is the same that makes him dangerous to his own team’s wellbeing. He likes to be aggressive with the ball and throw deep, and that burned him with a pair of interceptions late in the game that he really didn’t need to force because of the ample time left.

Winston had over 3 minutes left at midfield on the first one, and almost a full 2 minutes left in Minnesota territory on the last one, which came on a first down too. By the time the Vikings got the ball back, there was only time for a Hail Mary, which fell incomplete to end the game.

The Saints (5-5) continue to struggle while the Vikings are thriving even without Justin Jefferson for the last month and now without Kirk Cousins for the last two games. But Kevin O’Connell is getting to show that he knows how to coach offense, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison have stepped up, and Dobbs is doing very well.

This can still be a playoff team. Hell, they could win the division if they were to sweep Detroit, but one game at a time.

Commanders at Seahawks: Receiving Backs on the Loose

The closer we got to Sunday, the more I liked this to be a shootout with the No. 1 wide receivers dominating these secondaries. D.K. Metcalf finished with 98 yards, but it was improbably long touchdowns on short throws to running backs that put the only touchdowns on the board early in what was a field goal fest into the fourth quarter. Washington’s Brian Robinson had a 51-yard touchdown catch to start the game and Kenneth Walker created a 64-yard scoring play in the third quarter.

Eventually, the game got to where I imagined with both quarterbacks throwing for over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns. Like some other games on Sunday, it was back-and-forth scoring drives until the end with the teams combining to score on the final 5 drives.

Sam Howell led Washington on two game-tying touchdown drives. The last came with 52 seconds left, and I think that left Seattle a little too much time (with 2 timeouts left) to drive for a game-winning field goal had the Commanders gone for a 2-point conversion to try to take a lead. As we saw anyway in a tied game, Seattle was able to set up Jason Myers for a 43-yard field goal at the buzzer after two big catches by Metcalf for 44 yards.

In the end, it was about the game you’d expect between these teams. The Seahawks are 6-3 despite still being outscored by 1 point on the season. The Commanders (4-6) throw the ball more than anyone and basically have the record they deserve with an ugly loss to the Giants cancelling out an unlikely 18-point comeback win in Denver.

Falcons at Cardinals: Return of the Jedi (The One as Tall as Yoda)

On the 11-month anniversary of his torn ACL, Kyler Murray made his return to the field. Without seeing him in so long, you forget how little he is and how unique his running looks when he’s scooting around the field.

Murray’s return was a success as he led the Cardinals to a 25-23 win over a spiraling Atlanta team that has now lost to three straight quarterbacks making their season debut for their team (rookie Will Levis in Tennessee, Joshua Dobbs in Minnesota, and now Murray).

Meanwhile, the Falcons were getting nothing out of Taylor Heinicke in this game, who had 15 pass attempts and 55 passing yards in the fourth quarter before he was knocked out with an injury and replaced by Desmond Ridder. But if you are going to throw so little, why even bench Ridder in the first place?

Ridder sparked the offense in his return. After he was stopped on a 4th-down run earlier in the quarter, Ridder finished his second drive with a 9-yard touchdown run to give the Falcons a 23-22 lead with 2:33 left. But the Falcons missed the crucial 2-point conversion as Ridder was incomplete for Drake London, who bailed out Ridder with an incredible catch earlier in the drive.

Murray keyed his team’s game-winning drive with a 13-yard scramble on a 3rd-and-10, then hit his tight end Trey McBride for a 33-yard gain, the longest in the game. In fact, this game had 4 plays that gained 19+ yards and McBride had 3 of them.

That was enough for the Cardinals to set up a 23-yard field goal as the final snap for Matt Prater, who nailed it for a 25-23 win. Muray was 19-of-32 for 249 yards, a pick, and he rushed for 33 yards and a touchdown.

I think the Falcons (4-6) are a bit screwed as they head into their bye. I’d go back to Ridder for the next game but not sure it’ll matter at this point. As for the Cardinals (2-8), they are in a weird position. The return of Murray probably means they are not going to get the No. 1 pick, but do they still settle for a different rookie quarterback in 2024, or do they try to make this work with Murray?

I guess it depends on how well he plays the rest of the year. After some of the recent draft duds with these college quarterbacks, sometimes newer isn’t any better.

Packers at Steelers: Mostly on Brand

When this game started with three straight touchdown drives, I felt bamboozled again. These are two of the worst offenses in the league, especially in the first half of games. But apparently, Matt Canada calling the game from the field at least produces a good start.

It’s the rest of the game where the offense doesn’t do much as Kenny Pickett only passed for 126 yards in this one. I was not impressed (again). Pickett’s 24.3 QBR was the lowest of any quarterback to win in Week 10. He got away with an awful pick on the second touchdown drive after the defender just failed to get his feet in bounds at the sideline.

The good news is this was one of the best run blocking performances by the Steelers in the last 5 years. They had 205 yards on the ground. Keeping veteran Dan Moore at his usual left tackle spot and putting first-round rookie Broderick Jones at right tackle has helped improve the line.

But the Steelers had to grind for this one again as Jordan Love was gambling and getting away with it for three quarters. The Packers even started the fourth quarter with a trick play that looked like it would have worked, but the receiver dropped the ball in a 20-19 game. Actually, they ruled it a fumble that the Packers recovered, which is what the team would have wanted ruled earlier when it sure looked like the Steelers had a lateral that Green Bay recovered. But it was ruled an incomplete pass.

Down 23-19, Love was picked in the end zone after Patrick Peterson tipped a ball to Keanu Neal that was intended for Christian Watson. Almost like the Seattle play at the end of the 2013 NFC Championship Game against San Francisco. Love had some success in this game, but he was 2/7 for 23 yards and 2 interceptions when targeting Watson, who I want to start calling Cheesehead Claypool after this disappearing act following a good rookie year. Similar to what Chase Claypool did in Pittsburgh in 2020-21.

But Love had a chance with 59 seconds left to drive 81 yards for the win. He got 46 of them right away with a big play to Jayden Reed, the second-round rookie who continues to improve. It looked like the Steelers might blow this one, but just like last week when they stopped the Titans with a game-ending pick in a 4-point win as a 3-point home favorite, they did the exact same thing here with a game-ending pick in the red zone off Love.

The Packers have now gone 7 straight games without scoring 21 points, their longest streak since a 10-game streak in 1990-91.

The Steelers have been outgained in every game this season and are still 6-3, which has never been done before. In fact, the Steelers are the 107th team since 1940 to be outgained in at least 9 straight games at any time of year, and they have the best record (6-3) among those teams. The only other team out of the 107 to have a winning record was the 1985-86 Browns, who were 5-4. You could say Mike Tomlin is doing some Marty Schottenheimer (Martyball) things with this team.

But it’s really just turnover differential and timely plays. I don’t know how long they can sustain this, but the schedule still looks favorable for 9-10 wins doing exactly this style of play.

Giants at Cowboys: Monster Dallas Win Against Division II Team

The Cowboys did not disappoint with the biggest point spread of the season (-17.5) in a 49-17 thrashing of the Giants. Dak Prescott passed for 404 yards and 4 touchdowns. CeeDee Lamb had 11 catches for 151 yards and scored a rushing touchdown. He is the first player ever to stack three straight games with 10 catches and 150 receiving yards.

But I believe games like this only fuel why people don’t trust the Cowboys. They basically operate in three modes:

  • Blowing out scrubs like the Tommy DeVito-led Giants.
  • Playing down to scrubs like their upset loss in Arizona this year or nearly blowing it as a 17-point home favorite against the 2022 Texans last December.
  • Looking dumb and losing to elite teams like the Eagles and 49ers.

When the Cowboys bring their A game, they look like the best team in the league. But just like how no one trusts the Dolphins this year against the good teams, we have been right to treat Dallas the same way for years.

Also, the Giants have to be the worst team in the NFL, right? Save for a half in Arizona where the Cardinals may have literally tanked, this team has been garbage on offense all year and now the defense is starting to give up huge numbers too.

The Giants are 4-15-1 under Brian Daboll ever since his 6-1 start.

Colts vs. Patriots: We Haven’t Sent Our Best to Germany Since WWII Ended

I woke up at noon and saw it was 10-6 Colts with just under 5:00 left, and all I could do was laugh. Of course, we send the Colts to Germany for their first island game of the season and immediately their streak of scoring 20 points in every game under Shane Steichen ends. That was my only good prediction for this game.

But I started checking the box score and it didn’t seem like a 10-6 game. Each team had a respectable third-down conversion rate (respectable for who these QBs are), there was only one turnover (Gardner Minshew INT) to that point, there were no failed fourth-down plays, and each team missed a field goal.

Looking into it later, what you had was abysmal red zone play by the Patriots, a bunch of third-down sacks taken by Mac Jones, and an 8-minute drive that bled into the fourth quarter before Bill Belichick still settled for a 24-yard field goal instead of going for a 4th-and-goal at the 5. It was 7-3 and your little kick made it 7-6. Why not take advantage of the field position and go for it? Your defense was playing great.

Of course, the Patriots wasted this defensive effort when Jones threw an atrocious interception in the red zone with 4:16 left.

That could have been the end of the Jones era in New England, because he was benched for the final drive when the Patriots got the ball back with 1:52 left. Bailey Zappe took over, and the move might have been permanent if he led this team on a 95-yard game-winning touchdown drive. Things were moving to midfield too before maybe the worst fake spike of all time:

I can’t seem to find the Madden view of this one, because that makes it look even worse. So much for the Zappe era, and so much for the Belichick era ending on a high note. He should have just walked away after 2018, because now he’s going to have to find a new team for 2024 if he’s going to coach long enough to break the all-time wins record.

By the way, this is the first time the Patriots lost a game after only allowing 10 points since September 23, 2001 against the Jets. That was the fateful game where Drew Bledsoe was injured by a Mo Lewis hit and Tom Brady replaced him in a 10-3 loss.

If Belichick was hoping a quarterback change would save his bacon this day, he was sorely mistaken.

Titans at Buccaneers: Can’t Find a Pulse

Admit it, you didn’t care one iota about this game. The Titans have played 6 games away from Nashville this season and have yet to top 16 points in any of them. They are also 0-6 when not home where they are 3-0 and average 27.5 points per game. Fun.

As it turns out, the low success rate Will Levis had in his 4 touchdown debut against Atlanta that was filled with 50-yard bombs has not led to more success for the rookie. This was his worst outing yet as he completed 19-of-39 passes for 199 yards and took 4 sacks in the 20-6 loss. Even the running game was shut down (16 carries for 42 yards) as the Buccaneers looked completely different from the defense that was shredded by C.J. Stroud and the Texans last week.

Mike Evans had a huge game with 143 yards and a touchdown, and he even dropped another score. He had 4 catches of 20-plus yards. The Titans didn’t have a play gain more than 15 yards until they trailed 20-6 with half a quarter to play.

Not much more to say about this one. The Titans’ offense simply hasn’t traveled all year long.

Jets at Raiders: J-E-T-S Just Embargo Touchdown Scoring

Since Monday night, we have watched the Jets play 8 quarters in prime time without the team scoring a single touchdown. The Jets have 8 offensive touchdowns in 9 games this season, so I guess it’s not that big of a surprise. But when you can’t break through against the defenses of the Chargers and Raiders, you have some pretty big flaws.

The Jets weren’t doing bad in this field goal fest, and I guess a 16-12 final with only 22 total possessions was better than the toilet bowl this game could have been. But once the Raiders finally broke the 9-9 tie by finding the end zone thanks to a 40-yard run by Josh Jacobs, you felt like the Jets had little hope without a massive turnover and easy field position for Zach Wilson and the offense.

Aidan O’Connell wasn’t great for the Raiders, but he only turned it over once, and he threw a game-winning touchdown pass to rookie tight end Michael Mayer. After the Jets caught their break when the defense forced a Jacobs fumble with 6:06 left, Wilson saved his worst decision of the night on an interception from the Raiders 20 by Robert Spillane with 1:14 left.

The Raiders went 3-and-out and saved the Jets a timeout by throwing incomplete on 3rd-and-5, which I would have called a run to Jacobs for. Wilson had 53 seconds left to go 80 yards, an even bigger miracle than the game-tying drive against the Giants this year. Tight end Tyler Conklin did make some nice plays, including a 27-yard grab, to give the Jets a chance, but they wasted a solid 7 seconds by not getting their final timeout in after Conklin was down. Jets coach Robert Saleh alleged he was trying to get the timeout at 20 seconds, but no one acknowledged him. I’m not sure what happened there but it left the Jets only with 13 seconds left and 44 more yards to go. That’s 2 plays.

I have to say Wilson did a very good job of escaping pressure on the final snap and giving his guys a shot at the Hail Mary in the end zone. But it was not caught, and the Jets lost 16-12 to fall to 4-5, which will be no better than 13th in the AFC.

The Raiders are suddenly 5-5 and celebrating wins under interim coach Antonio Pierce like they won the Super Bowl, but these New York teams are not anyone’s Super Bowl this year. The schedule will get much tougher and I’ll be surprised if the Raiders don’t max out at 7-10, which is the record I had for them before the season started.

The Jets gambled on a quarterback staying hot after his 40th birthday, and they made his backup the kid who thinks hotness begins at 40. They are losing for it now.

Because unlike the past boring editions of teams who just try to hide the quarterback by playing great defense and running the ball, the Jets don’t do enough running. The backs had 17 carries for 54 yards in Vegas, and these are no scrubs with Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. But Wilson himself had 4 runs for 54 yards as a scrambler.

But hey, as long as they keep starting him, we get to see records. Wilson is the first quarterback since the 1970 merger to pass for 260 yards in back-to-back games without leading his team to a single touchdown in either game.

Just put an embargo on touchdown scoring and the Jets might be playoff ready.

Next week: The last time I was this ready for a MNF game, it was cancelled halfway through the first quarter. But Eagles-Chiefs is a big one, and since it’s prime time where offense dies this season, I fully expect the Chiefs to win 16-13. But Bengals-Ravens on TNF is another big one, Steelers-Browns should be a bloodbath at 1:00, and we’ll just ignore the absolute mess they lined up for the late afternoon and SNF (Vikings-Broncos). But I might have a special preview on Chiefs-Eagles or at least something related this week.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 9

~ Scott ~ 12 Comments

It says a lot about this NFL season when Sunday’s best drama came from the games where Joshua Dobbs, Taylor Heinicke, Baker Mayfield, and C.J. Stroud were dueling in the fourth quarter and not from any of the “big games” Week 9 featured.

The main events were far from classics, and only Cowboys-Eagles, a division game, had a dramatic finish as both teams tried to hand the game over to their bitter rival before the Eagles won 28-23. It was also the only big game where the loser broke 20 points as Miami flopped 21-14 in Germany to the Chiefs, the Seahawks were blown out 37-3 in Baltimore, and the Bills were always playing from behind in Cincinnati in a 24-18 final that didn’t feel that close. 

It was a long day, and I mean that literally with the clock change dragging things out an extra hour to the point where I fell asleep during the middle of the late afternoon slate. Not that I needed to see the no-show performances from the Panthers and Giants.

There were 8 games with a comeback opportunity this week, and I expect that number to rise on Monday night with some classic Chargering to end Week 9. But a classic week it was not.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Dolphins vs. Chiefs: Tyreek Hill Delivers Belated Touchdown Gift to Kansas City

Not much can get me out of bed at 9:30 AM, but I wanted to watch this one as it had the potential to be an instant classic and have a huge impact on shaping the narrative for the second half of this 2023 NFL season. Everything from the award races to the Super Bowl odds and No. 1 seed in the AFC was up for grabs here.

Beyond that, it’s just a good game on paper where you had to question if the No. 1 Miami offense can actually score on a top defense and beat a good team. You questioned if the Kansas City offense could still win a shootout with the limitations at wide receiver and how bad they looked in last week’s 24-9 loss in Denver.

In the end, all we really learned is that Miami is a paper tiger, Tyreek Hill killed his chances of having an MVP case this season, and the Chiefs have even more question marks on offense than previously thought.

For a big game, this was a huge disappointment to watch. The game started great for about 4 minutes with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs looking sharp on an opening touchdown drive, then Jaylen Waddle got the Dolphins going with a 15-yard catch. This was going to be great.

But then on the second play from scrimmage for Miami, Waddle was clipped on a running play and left the game with a knee injury. He would later return, but he never felt like a big part of the game plan after that.

For the next several drives, these offenses could not solve these defenses, and they were repeatedly stuck in 3rd-and-long situations. The Chiefs were also getting stuck in bad field position as Mecole Hardman has no conscience in fielding punts inside his own 10.

But the Chiefs eventually broke the scoring slump with a great 95-yard touchdown drive that consumed 8:28. Down 14-0, the Dolphins had a chance to get a double score as they were getting the ball first in the third quarter. But Miami started playing the clock too much in not wanting to give Mahomes the ball back, and they even tried to throw a screen to Hill with under 50 seconds left in the half. More than 35 yards away from the end zone and wanting to make a huge impact against his former team, Hill tried to do too much, and the Chiefs swarmed him, knocking out the ball for a huge fumble that was picked up, then wisely lateraled to another Chief for a 59-yard return touchdown to give the Chiefs a shocking 21-0 lead.

And you didn’t think you’d ever see Tyreek Hill score another touchdown for the Chiefs.

At halftime, the Kansas City defense looked fantastic, and while it was not a dominant half for the offense, Mahomes was on pace for almost 300 yards and 4 touchdowns despite barely getting Travis Kelce involved. Everything was coming up Chiefs as Miami looked like it was a fraud that could only beat the worst teams in the league.

But in the third quarter, Tua Tagovailoa finally hit a big pass for 31 yards to Cedrick Wilson Jr. for Miami’s first touchdown of the game. Bradley Chubb forced Mahomes into a bad strip-sack to give Miami a short field, then Chris Jones was called for a ridiculous penalty that cost the Chiefs 4 more points as it was going to bring up a 4th-and-10. Instead, Raheem Mostert ran for a 13-yard touchdown, and we had a 21-14 game going into the final quarter.

From there, some of the baffling play calls for the Chiefs came to the forefront. I’m not sure how Andy Reid can justify a run on 2nd-and-10 with La’Mical Perine (not even Samaje) for 1 yard when Miami clearly had the momentum. Mahomes threw a deep ball on 3rd-and-9 to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and the fact that he couldn’t draw a DPI flag or make the catch there sums up why this wideout situation is a big problem.

But with the Dolphins taking their sweet time to drive to the Kansas City 38, the defense stood tall for the Chiefs again. They forced back-to-back negative plays, including an 11-yard sack of Tua to bring up a 3rd-and-26 that was incomplete. Hardman again acted the fool and fielded the punt at his own 3, but the Chiefs were only going to need a couple of first downs to run out the final 4:10 on the clock, shockingly ending this one at 21-14.

But with a 3rd-and-1, the Chiefs tried a play-action pass with Mahomes having to eat the ball under pressure and throw an incompletion. This team doesn’t believe in the quarterback sneak anymore because Mahomes had a freak injury (dislocated kneecap) on it in Denver in 2019, so they purposely deprive themselves of one of the most successful plays in NFL history. They don’t even coach up a backup to do it well as we’ve seen this team try to do the Brotherly Shove with Noah Gray under center from a field goal formation. It’s ridiculous.

They didn’t need a quarterback sneak though. They could have just run Isiah Pacheco on 3rd-and-1 as that guy takes every carry like its his last day on Earth. But nope, the Chiefs screwed it up, and at this point, I thought they deserved to lose the game with this chickenshit play calling in the 2nd half.

Miami was 75 yards and a 2-point conversion away from potentially taking a 22-21 lead. Mostert was bottled up most of the game, but his runs of 25 and 19 yards quickly moved this to the Kansas City 31. That’s where Tua all but sank his MVP chances this year with 3 straight incompletions, including a woeful throw on 3rd down that had to be a miscommunication with the receiver (Wilson).

On 4th-and-ballgame, this game got the stinker ending it was building up to all morning. A bad snap got away from Tua and he just ate the ball to end the game. He didn’t even get a chance to throw a pass or for the Kansas City defense to do anything to stop him. Just another error at the worst moment.

Neither quarterback passed for 200 yards, which is absurd when Mahomes had 147 yards at halftime, and Tagovailoa had -1450 odds at FanDuel to throw for 200 in this game. Noah Gray led the Chiefs with 34 receiving yards, which was 20 more yards than Kelce. Hill finished with 8 catches for only 62 yards, but it’s the fumble that he’ll be remembered for in this game. The offenses were a combined 6-for-22 on third down.

The good news is the Kansas City defense is for real (for now). The bad news is the offense is in a funk and not doing much to help itself out of it.

  • In Mahomes’ first 101 starts, the only game where the Chiefs and their opponent both had under 300 yards of offense was the 2019 Denver game where he dislocated his kneecap and left early in the 2nd quarter, so that doesn’t really count.
  • But in the last 2 weeks in Denver and here in Germany, the Chiefs and their opponent have not topped 300 yards of offense. From 0 games in 101 starts to 2 in a row. Crazy stuff.
  • The Chiefs had 174 net passing yards and the Dolphins had 175 net passing yards. It is the first Kansas City game where the Chiefs and their opponent did not exceed 175 net passing yards since the 30-0 win over the Texans in the 2015 AFC wild card round.

This is not normal for Kansas City. Having said that, I’d still rather be in their shoes than Miami’s. Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, but three times is a pattern. The Dolphins looked outclassed against the Bills, Eagles, and now Chiefs. No one really cares what you do against the Panthers and Giants. Miami was underwhelming again in this game, and I’m not sure what the solution is going forward. Hope De’Von Achane can break 50-yard runs at the highest rate in history after he returns from injury?

I’d say more about the Chiefs, but I’ve been up over 20 hours cause of this game, I’m still mad about how weak it was offensively, and I’m going to bed. We’ll figure it out over the bye week, but the offense has to step up soon.

Cowboys at Eagles: Dallas, Always a Bridesmaid

While the final quarter was a litany of mistakes by both teams, this division battle was the best main event of Week 9. If we’re calling it down the line, this was the best high-scoring game between contenders since the Lions and Seahawks went to overtime (37-31) way back in Week 2. Yeah, things have been rough this year.

But Dak Prescott played well, throwing another 3 touchdowns to have 14 scores in 4 games against Nick Sirianni’s team since 2021. This was only the second time that Dak and Jalen Hurts have met, but it was worth the wait with Hurts passing for another 200 yards, 2 scores, and running in another touchdown on his trademark play.

But you can kind of see the advantage of division games in that Dallas was not outmatched that significantly in this game even as a 3-point road favorite in a hostile environment. The Cowboys came back to take a 17-14 halftime lead into the locker room before the Eagles scored two touchdowns in the third quarter to lead 28-17.

But the fourth quarter really was a mess for both teams:

Dallas went for it on 4th-and-1 at the Philadelphia 1 with 10:10 left. The young tight end did not run his target deep enough and came up just inches short of the end zone, turning the ball over on downs. I think there was an argument to kick a field goal in a 28-17 game, but there’s also a good argument to go for it with the field position advantage, but that sequence was a big, missed opportunity for Dallas.

The Eagles went 3-and-out, and sure enough, Dallas only had to go 52 yards for a quick touchdown. But on the 2-point conversion, Dak just stepped out of bounds short of the end zone, so that was another case of inches costing the Cowboys more points as there is a huge difference between 28-25 and 28-23.

After another Philadelphia 3-and-out, a Dallas drive short-circuited after back-to-back sacks, and Prescott threw incomplete to a draped receiver on 4th-and-8 who wasn’t CeeDee Lamb, which I couldn’t agree with. But instead of the Eagles running out the final 1:17, they nearly fumbled the game away on a 3rd-down run when D’Andre Swift collied with A.J. Brown in motion, and the Eagles were lucky to recover that fumble.

The Cowboys had 46 seconds to drive 86 yards without a timeout. Immediately, they got a 36-yard defensive pass interference penalty after a horrible play by corner James Bradberry, who almost seemed to fake an injury in embarrassment for his coverage lapse. A roughing the passer penalty was called on the next play, and while it was weak contact, it was definitely late after the play. Just like that, the Cowboys covered 61 yards in 14 seconds, and this was looking realistic, especially after the other corner, Darius Slay, pulled up with an injury.

Lamb caught a pass for 11 yards and got out of bounds, then the Eagles were flagged for 5 more yards for encroachment. The Cowboys were 6 yards away from pulling this off, but that’s when it all went to hell, and shades of past playoff failures against the 49ers. First, Prescott definitely looked like he audibled to a quarterback draw, which would have been another ill-fated decision as he is not as fast as he thinks he is, and the Cowboys were out of timeouts. But a false start shut that down.

Then Prescott took a huge 11-yard sack, the Eagles’ 5th of the day, and he rushed a throw into the end zone instead of spiking a pass and maybe having 2 more shots at the end zone. Move it back 5 yards for a false start, and the Eagles were down to 1 play and 27 yards away. They probably could have tried a short throw and run out of bounds to get 6-to-8 yards closer since the Eagles gave up that whole short area of the field. But they went for the deep throw and it wasn’t deep enough as Lamb caught it at the 4-yard line and fumbled as the defense was right there and never going to allow him to score.

We’ve seen worse Dallas performances before, but it was still disappointing in how well things were going to start that last drive. The Cowboys also held the Eagles without a 30-yard play, they ended Brown’s record streak of 125-yard games by holding him to 66 receiving yards, and they held the Eagles to 3.3 yards per carry.

But it still was not enough to get a win in Philadelphia, which has a big lead in the NFC East now. It was expected the Eagles would win this first matchup at home, but the Cowboys need to build on the positives and hope the Eagles slip up with their tough upcoming schedule.

Bills at Bengals: Buffalo Has a Cincinnati Problem

If you had to pick a team in the AFC that you could trust to go into Kansas City or Baltimore in January and win big games, you should pick Buffalo above most. Some will say Cincinnati, but Buffalo has a track record on par with them, if not better when it comes to beating Lamar Jackson and going drive for drive with Mahomes.

However, we have seen about 8.5 quarters of Bills vs. Bengals going back to last January, and it looks like the Bills have a big problem with this Cincinnati team. The pass rush can’t seem to get to Joe Burrow with his quick release, his receivers are too good for this secondary to hold up, and the Bills put everything on Josh Allen, who tends to make mistakes, especially against a master game planner like Cincinnati defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo.

The Bengals (5-3) have won 4 in a row and the whole AFC North would be in the playoffs if they started today. This loss drops Buffalo (5-4) to No. 9 in the AFC, and they have some issues with the inconsistent offense and defensive injuries.

I’m sensing a bad pattern for Buffalo in these big AFC matchups where Allen is expected to carry the load where the Chiefs and Bengals do more to help their quarterbacks with a running game and other receivers. After Stefon Diggs and a rookie tight end (Dalton Kincaid), Allen is struggling to get Gabriel Davis producing as a No. 2 receiver this year, and they rarely ever run the ball with the running backs in games like this.

This puts a lot of pressure on Allen as this Buffalo defense tends to fold against the better passing offenses in this league. They can make the Jets look bad twice a year, but they usually don’t make an impact on the contenders.

Each team only had 9 possessions in this game, and Buffalo wasted 2 of them with turnovers, and they botched the end of the first half when an intentional grounding penalty knocked the Bills out of long field goal range. You could have argued there was a missed tripping penalty on the Bengals before that grounding call, but it was a weak night for the officials too.

But the biggest mistake was by that rookie tight end as Kincaid fumbled in the red zone in the fourth quarter when it was a 21-10 game. The Bengals turned that into a 5:10 field goal drive to go up 24-10, the Bills scored a touchdown with a 2-point conversion, but they wasted a timeout with one of the worst challenges you’ll ever see. Don’t challenge something so inconclusive that won’t even give you a first down when time is your main enemy in a 2-score game. Don’t challenge something that only brings up 2nd-and-10 with the clock stopped. Make up for it, as the Bills did in 2 snaps, but by the time the Bengals got the ball, they only had 3:32 to burn through with Buffalo down to 1 timeout.

A surprise pass down the field led to a 32-yard gain right way, then the Bengals kept it on the ground with Joe Mixon and he beat Von Miller to the marker on a 3rd-down run to end the game. The Bills trailed by double digits on each of their last 5 drives, which isn’t that different from the playoff loss last year where they trailed by double digits on 7 of their final 8 drives.

Buffalo seems to bring out the best in this Cincinnati team as Burrow again had a great game with 348 yards as Tee Higgins (110 yards) took over on a quiet night for Ja’Marr Chase (4 catches for 41 yards). The Bengals didn’t run it well this time (17 carries for 50 yards) but they at least put the game away on the ground.

It may not sound like much at 24-18, but the Bengals led wire to wire and controlled the game from the start. This is what they do in big games in Cincinnati. They score 19-to-27 points and they allow 16-to-27 points almost every time, and they get the big turnovers in clutch moments like they did again with the Kincaid forced fumble.

No playoff team has dropped more than 27 points on the Bengals since the 2021 Chiefs in the first meeting of that rivalry, a 34-31 Cincinnati comeback win. That’s 13 straight games holding playoff teams to 27 points. If the best teams the Bengals have played this year make the playoffs again, that could be an 18-game streak when you include the 2023 Browns, Ravens, Seahawks, 49ers, and Bills.

The Bengals play the Chiefs very well, but they look to be even better against Buffalo, and this loss could be a big one now that Bills fall back to second in the AFC East and lose the head-to-head tie-breaker with the Bengals for a wild card spot.

Seahawks at Ravens: Who Is Writing These Baltimore Game Scripts?

Apparently, Lamar Jackson is 18-3 SU against NFC teams, but the spread record (12-8-1 ATS) was nowhere near that strong. Ask anyone who got burned last week by the Ravens (-9.5) in Arizona when they struggled to move the ball and couldn’t hold a big lead late to easily cover the spread.

That Arizona game is going to look even fishier now that it came between two home games where the Ravens absolutely blasted the Lions (38-6) and Seahawks (37-3), who are supposed to be considerably better than 1-win Arizona.

The Ravens either play these absurdly lopsided games, or they puke all over themselves in losses to the Colts and Steelers. It’s frustrating, but when this team is clicking like it was on Sunday, they look like the team I picked to win the Super Bowl before the season started.

This game was a punt fest in the first quarter, but after rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba bobbled a third-down pass on the opening drive, that was arguably the beginning of the end for Seattle. Gus Edwards scored 2 more touchdowns after a trio last week, Geno Smith turned it over twice in the 2nd quarter, and the Ravens led 17-3 at halftime. Baltimore kept it going with field goals, then blew the game open with Keaton Mitchell breaking a 40-yard touchdown run. I never even heard of him before Sunday. Mitchell finished with 138 yards on 9 carries, further proving how silly it is to spend big resources to find running backs in this game.

Mitchell’s big run was more points than the Seahawks mustered all day as Smith was held to 157 yards passing, and Kenneth Walker had 9 carries for 16 yards in a 37-3 blowout loss.

Even Tyler Huntley came into the game in the fourth quarter and led his team to more points than Geno did, throwing a touchdown pass to Odell Beckham Jr. to keep him happy.

The Ravens, my preseason Super Bowl pick, are a hard team to watch when most of their games are blowouts or sloppy performances. But if they can win at home like this the next two weeks against the Browns and Bengals, they will be in full control of the tough AFC North, and maybe the best team in the whole AFC if the offense can keep this balance.

Look for Jackson to overtake Tagovailoa in the MVP race and be right there with Mahomes and Hurts.

Buccaneers at Texans: The Unexpected Shootout of the Year

On a list of unexpected shootouts in NFL history, this one would have to rank somewhere between Baker Mayfield vs. Derek Carr (2018 Browns vs. Raiders) and Matthew Stafford vs. Brady Quinn (2009 Lions vs. Browns).

Mayfield has been on the losing end of several of these before. Mayfield is the only quarterback in NFL history to lose multiple games when his team scored at least 42 points, and that happened to him 3 times in Cleveland.

Mayfield did his job in this one with Tampa Bay holding multiple 10-point leads, and Mayfield led multiple touchdown drives in the fourth quarter alone, including a great one with 46 seconds left that included a key 4th-down scramble, and he found Cade Otton for a 14-yard touchdown.

But this win was earned by C.J. Stroud, who may have just had the best rookie quarterback performance ever, and who definitely put the team on his back and should run away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

With an irrelevant running game, a Swiss cheese defense, and an injured kicker, Stroud led the Texans back with 470 passing yards, 5 touchdown passes, and no turnovers. The 470 yards are a rookie record, replacing the 433 yards that Andrew Luck had in 2012 against Miami. The only other true rookie to pass for over 400 yards with 5 touchdowns was Stafford against the aforementioned 2009 Browns, but Stroud is the only one to do it without throwing any interceptions.

Let’s leave rookies out of it. Stroud joins Dan Fouts as the only quarterbacks to ever throw for 400 yards, 5 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and lead a 4QC/GWD. Fouts did it against Joe Montana’s 49ers in a classic duel.

Houston’s injured kicker in the second half led to more adversity as the Texans ended up trying four 2-point conversions. They also let running back Dare Ogunbowale kick a 29-yard field goal to take a 33-30 lead with 8:45 left, and the back nailed it.

But that wasn’t going to hold up as the game winner after Mayfield’s last drive put Houston behind 37-33 with 46 seconds left. The Texans had 2 timeouts left, but what ensued is one of the best game-winning touchdown drives you’ll ever see.

Stroud used both timeouts after 2 completions for 20 yards, then spiked the ball after a 14-yard completion. But the real dagger throw was a 26-yard pass to Tank Dell near the sideline where he got out of bounds with 10 seconds left. The next throw needed to go into the end zone, and Stroud delivered right back to Dell for the 15-yard touchdown strike with 6 seconds left.

The Buccaneers only had time left to fumble the lateral-filled play. Stroud finished with 8 completions of 20-plus yards in a monster performance for a quarterback of any experience level, let alone a rookie.

I’ve been lukewarm on Stroud’s rookie season from a historic perspective, but a game like this moves him up significantly.

Vikings at Falcons: The Joshua Dobbs Game

The other unexpectedly amazing finish on Sunday came in Atlanta. We knew the Falcons allowed Will Levis to have a record-tying debut last week in Tennessee, and we know the Falcons are capable of blowing any game in any situation.

But this was something special. Jaren Hall was starting for Minnesota after Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles, and this rookie also looked sharp early in the game with 78 yards passing in the first quarter. He just missed on a touchdown throw to T.J. Hockenson, but Hall was concussed on a scramble, putting Joshua Dobbs into the game.

Dobbs was just acquired via trade from Arizona this week, and he reportedly had no practice snaps and was only beginning to learn the offense as he was not expected to play in this game. But he had to play, it started really rough with a safety and strip-sack, but once he calmed down and remember it’s just football, he looked like the quarterback we have seen in Arizona this year with the ability to scramble and make things happen.

Dobbs led all runners in the game with 66 yards and a touchdown. He also passed for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns, which is pretty solid production for someone who just joined the team. He also was 1-9 as a starter in his career and 0-5 in game-winning drive opportunities.

But this game went back and forth, and it looked like Atlanta had the upper hand after Taylor Heinicke, starting for the benched Desmond Ridder, led a 79-yard touchdown drive to put the Falcons up 28-24 with 2:08 left.

You don’t expect much from Dobbs here, but again, these are the Falcons. This is what they do. Like how the 2022 Raiders made Baker Mayfield a legend for a night with a 98-yard drive to win the game for the Rams just 48 hours after he joined the team, Dobbs pulled off his own miracle for his first game-winning drive in the NFL.

It came down to a 4th-and-7, and this scramble by Dobbs is one of the best plays you’ll see all season:

Three plays later, Dobbs threw a 6-yard touchdown to Brandon Powell to win the game. The Falcons had 22 seconds and 2 timeouts left, but they couldn’t get into range for Younghoe Koo for a field goal in the 31-28 loss. It was the first blown 4th-quarter lead of the season for the Falcons, but what a way to do it, and against a team you are directly competing with for a wild card spot.

At least Dobbs, who has the highest QBR in Week 9 (86.6), can say he has his moment in the NFL, and he could even end up starting a playoff game as the Vikings are currently the No. 7 seed.

Bears at Saints: Bagent Is Definitely Chicago Material

The Bears actually played a solid game in New Orleans with tight end Cole Kmet showing up big early with 2 touchdown catches, including an incredible grab on a risky pass from rookie Tyson Bagent.

The game was tied at 17 going into the fourth quarter, and that’s when the Saints broke the tie with a touchdown drive that mixed some Derek Carr passes with contributions from Taysom Hill, who technically threw the game-winning 3-yard touchdown pass to tight end Juwan Johnson. With Carr and Hill splitting time on the drive, I ended up giving both credit for the game-winning drive, which is technically the first of Hill’s unique career.

At this point of the game, Bagent had over 200 passing yards, 2 touchdown passes, and 70 rushing yards – numbers that Justin Fields put up in a game just once in his career. But Bagent showed he is perfect for Chicago after he immediately answered the Saints’ drive with a bad interception. The Saints botched the moment by hurrying Carr on a quarterback sneak, which is never a good idea, and he was short and turned it over on downs.

The rest of this game was a mess. Bagent threw another pick in a 24-17 game, the teams traded 3-and-outs, then the Saints missed a 47-yard field goal with 2:26 left as this new kicker (Blake Grupe) has choker written all over him.

Fortunately, the defense forced Bagent into a strip-sack for his 4th turnover to finally wrap this one up to move to 5-4. The Bears are now 1-13 at comeback opportunities under coach Matt Eberflus. It’s uncanny how many of those game-losing drives have ended with the quarterback turning the ball over, but this is why Chicago has the reputation it does.

Rams at Packers: McVay Doesn’t Care for Lambeau

The Rams haven’t won in Green Bay since 2006. Throw in a Matthew Stafford thumb injury that led to Brett Rypien starting, and this felt like a good day for the Packers to end their losing slide. Hell, they even scored a touchdown in the first half, but it would be the only points they had early.

Despite the 20-3 final, this was a 10-3 game going into the fourth quarter when the Rams were stopped on a 4th-and-2 run at midfield. The Rams got the ball right back too, but Rypien was intercepted, and that led to a field goal and 13-3 lead for the Packers. The Rams went 3-and-out, and the Packers put it away with a 72-yard touchdown drive with Jordan Love finding rookie tight end Luke Musgrave for a 20-yard touchdown.

It’s not the kind of win that’s going to change minds in Green Bay, but at least Love was 20-for-26 with no picks. At least we know Matt LaFleur can still beat the Bears and the Rams (at home).

Commanders at Patriots: Dead Last in the AFC

At least some things never change in New England. Somehow, this was called roughing the passer on Washington:

That led to a field goal to give the Patriots a 17-10 lead, which was already built on a short-field touchdown drive after recovering a fumble, and the Patriots intercepted Sam Howell in the end zone to end the first half.

But that’s where the typical New England things ended. The Patriots trailed 20-17 for the entire fourth quarter. It looked like Mac Jones had a completion out past the 40, but Washington challenged rookie Demario Douglas’ 22-yard catch, and it was reversed to an incompletion to kill the drive.

This is where the offense is these days. Relying on 6th-round rookies, the ghosts of Ezekiel Elliott, DeVante Parker, and JuJu Smith-Schuster, and they were even firing bombs to Jalen Reagor on third down on Sunday. The only thing surprising about Jalen Reagor in a Patriots uniform is that Bill didn’t draft him himself.

Later, it looked like Douglas was going to redeem himself with a big punt return to the New England 43, but the Patriots were offsides on the punt, giving the Commanders a fresh set of downs. Again, when do you see these mistakes on special teams from a Belichick-coached team? Happening a lot these days.

Jones and the offense eventually got the ball back with 2:07 left, but they were at their own 9. The drive reached the Washington 41, but that’s when Jones’ pass for JuJu went off the receiver’s hands and was caught for a game-ending interception. The throw was totally fine.

While the quarterback position continues to fail the new Patriots, so does most other positions, especially the wide receivers. This team needs a multi-year rebuild, which sounds like the job of a young coach to me. Maybe one that will let a general manager do their job and the coach does their job of just coaching.

The Patriots (2-7) are dead last in the AFC.

Colts at Panthers: The Worst Day Yet for Carolina Fans

In hindsight, the Panthers holding C.J. Stroud and the Texans to 13 points last week for their first win feels like a miracle given what these teams did in Week 9. After Stroud had an incredible game against Tampa Bay, that raised the bar again for what Young, the No. 1 pick in the draft, needed to do against a Colts team that has been bleeding points this season.

The result was terrible as the Panthers scored 3 points halfway through the third quarter, and Young ended up throwing a pair of pick-sixes to Kenny Moore to lose 27-13 at home. The Panthers wasted a defensive effort that saw them hold the Colts to 3.5 yards per play. Indy’s streak of being the only team to score 20 points in every game this season likely ends if the Carolina offense did not give up 2 touchdowns, including that awful one right before halftime.

Even Adam Thielen was a non-factor this week with 5 catches for 29 yards. Young took 4 sacks and threw 3 interceptions. It was an embarrassing loss for coach Frank Reich, who was facing his former team with rookie coach Shane Steichen getting the decisive win.

The Colts (4-5) are still alive while the Panthers (1-7) have to play this Thursday night in Chicago in a game no one really wants to watch.

Giants at Raiders: Post-Nut Clarity in Vegas

Finally, a Week 9 game that played out almost to expectations. The Raiders got that post-firing of Josh McDaniels bump and played their best game of the season by finally scoring 30 points, all on offense with Aidan O’Connell leading three 60-yard touchdown drives to start the game.

Josh Jacobs lost out on a 100-yard rushing game with his last carry in the 30-6 blowout, but he scored twice. Davante Adams was still quiet (4-of-7 for 34 yards), but at least he caught more than 1 ball this week. The Raiders also kept O’Connell clean with no sacks and no turnovers, something Jimmy Garoppolo was unable to do in a game this season.

But it certainly helped to be playing the Giants, who lost Daniel Jones to potentially a torn ACL. Backup Tommy DeVito was sacked 6 times and picked twice in a big game for the defense.

We’ll see how interim coach Antonio Pierce fares against better opponents, but he at least was able to do things with this team that McDaniels had not in the first half of this season.

Cardinals at Browns: The 2000 Ravens Would Be Proud

We may never get confirmation from a whistleblower that the 2023 Cardinals tanked the season, but we have circumstantial evidence they are doing it:

  • Letting DeAndre Hopkins walk
  • Cutting Colt McCoy in late August
  • Bringing Joshua Dobbs in late in camp to be your Week 1 starter
  • Blowing a 28-7 lead at home in the third quarter to the Giants, one of the only teams that is garbage enough to finish with a worse record than this talent-less Arizona roster
  • Making Dallas your unfortunate patsy to prove you are trying to win
  • Slow roll Kyler Murray’s return to action from a torn ACL, which is typically a 9-month recovery that has gone about 10.5 months for him (and counting)
  • Trade Dobbs for peanuts to Minnesota at the trade deadline
  • Start rookie Clayton Tune, which sounds like the banjo kid from Deliverance, in a real game in Cleveland

That latest move led to a 27-0 loss that should have been predictable, yet it was still somehow worse than imagined. Clayton Tune finished 11-of-20 for 58 yards, 2 INTs, took 7 sacks for 41 yards, and he finished as Arizona’s leading rusher with 5 carries for 28 yards.

Tune is just the 5th quarterback since 1960 to take 7 sacks and throw for fewer than 60 yards on at least 20 pass attempts. Bobby Douglass did it twice for the Bears in 1969 and 1971. Dan Darragh did it for the 1968 Bills against the Raiders, and Bill Nelsen had such a game in 1965 for the Steelers against the Cardinals. Tune is the only one of the 5 to be shutout.

The Cardinals had 7 first downs, were 1-of-12 on third down, and they had 58 yards of total offense. It’s going to add to some incredible stats for the Cleveland defense in 2023, but it is hard to take this defense at face value given some of the opponents faced, including this gift from the Cardinals.

It reminds me of the 2000 season when the Ravens had those fantastic numbers on defense, and so did the Titans who were playing largely the same schedule in the old AFC Central. But those Ravens legitimized their run by doing it in the playoffs too, and the Browns will have to answer in those big games when they see Lamar Jackson and the Ravens again next week, and when Joe Burrow, who they have owned in the past, gets another shot with a healthier calf.

That’s to say nothing of a potential playoff run for this team, which now sits at 5-3. There hopefully won’t be any quarterbacks like Clayton Tune in the postseason. It was bad enough we had Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson in last year’s tournament.

Next week: The Week 10 schedule is legitimately horrific. Just look at the prime-time games for starters: Panthers-Bears on TNF, Jets-Raiders on SNF, and Broncos-Bills on MNF. If that’s not bad enough, there’s another Sunday 9:30 a.m. game with Colts-Patriots. You couldn’t find a worse island game schedule. It gets worse. The Chiefs, Eagles, Dolphins, and Rams are on a bye week. The big games are 49ers-Jaguars, Browns-Ravens, and I guess Texans-Bengals looks a lot more attractive than it did any other week this season.

Just save your money for Week 11.