NFL Week 4 Predictions: Angry Tom Brady Edition

After September 2021 set a record for fastest month ever completed, we’re already into Week 4. Do we know anything other than the given that the Bears and Jets never know how to get things done at the quarterback position? Not really, but some games this week should help a lot in figuring out legit turnarounds versus frauds.

I already did previews on Giants-Saints, Buccaneers-Patriots, and Raiders-Chargers. I also went into detail on Russell Wilson’s division problems as the NFC West takes center stage this Sunday with two matchups as Wilson looks to avoid the first three-game losing streak of his career with Seattle. So, let’s keep him in mind with this first part.

Does “Angry Tom Brady” Exist?

You wouldn’t like Tom Brady when he’s angry.

The hype for this Bucs-Pats game on Sunday night is pretty hilarious given that this has to be one of the least important non-conference games of the season. The Patriots (1-2) aren’t going anywhere this season and this punchless roster should not be able to handle the Bucs on Sunday night. Tampa Bay’s winning streak was snapped in Los Angeles, but this just means that Tom Brady is going to be extra angry as he looks to drop 40+ on Belichick in this one.

As if he wasn’t already in that mindset for this game. But the loss makes Tampa Bay covering my favorite pick of the week. I’m just mad that Rob Gronkowski, the real GOAT of the night, is unlikely to play with a rib injury.

But in that BMR preview, I looked into the idea of Angry Tom Brady with data. For many years it has been said that Brady is so tough to beat two weeks in a row, and the data will show that is true of course. We know the Patriots rarely endured losing streaks. But are his stats up in those games to suggest he is the one who steps his game up the most after a loss?

(Sarcasm) These results are going to shock you, but I found that Brady’s team has one of the best records after a loss, but his individual QB stats are more on the fringe of a top 10 QB rather than the most dominant in the league. Even if you only look at the last decade when Brady’s stats are up and the league-wide stats are up, his individual numbers actually have gone down in those games.

I’ll repeat the recap of the findings from my article here.

I looked at data on 66 quarterbacks from 2001-2020 in starts following a team loss and how they performed that next game. Here are the findings:

  • Brady is 55-16 SU (.775) after a loss, the second-best record behind only Russell Wilson (35-9, .795).
  • Brady is 49-22 ATS (.690) after a loss, the second-best record behind only Andrew Luck (24-9-1, .721).
  • Brady’s team has the highest scoring differential (10.3 points per game) following a loss, and only Wilson (9.1), Aaron Rodgers (8.2), and Luck (7.0) are even close.
  • Out of 66 quarterbacks, Brady ranks 21st in completion percentage (63.4%), 23rd in yards per attempt (7.26), 10th in passer rating (96.3), and 10th in adjusted net yards per attempt (6.95) after a loss.
  • If you only look at Brady’s post-loss games since 2011 when league passing stats have gone up, his passing stats all decrease but his team still wins 76.3% of games and covers 71.1% (27-11 ATS) of the time.

As it turns out, “Angry Bill Belichick” is likely more of a thing than Angry Tom Brady. I’ve included a chart of those 66 quarterbacks and looking at their win% vs. ANY/A after a loss. This looks very good for Russell Wilson, who again has never lost three games in a row in the same season with Seattle.

Something I did not look at was comparing how the QB played in the previous-game loss relative to his next-game performance. That could be a way of showing that Brady does step up from a loss better than anyone, but part of the issue there is that he’s just usually a bad QB when his team loses.

One thing’s for sure: if Brady loses to Belichick on Sunday night, he will break the record for calling people this:

NFL Week 4 Predictions

For the third time in four weeks, Thursday Night Football came down to a game-winning field goal. I was on the wrong side of that spread again too.

I’m about to start picking the opposite of what makes sense, because not much is making sense to me in this league this season so far.

I picked the Bears despite Detroit playing some spirited ball under Dan Campbell, because this feels like a spot where Matt Nagy is getting fired if he doesn’t deliver in this game, and he is 5-1 against the Lions in his career.

The Titans have me nervous with their top WRs (Julio Jones, A.J. Brown) out. The Jets beat the Browns last year when the Browns lost their WR room to COVID. Have to hope Derrick Henry pops some big ones there and Zach Wilson continues to be awful.

On the biggest surprise 3-0 teams, Panthers and Broncos, I am going with Dallas to put an end to this little run of Carolina never trailing with Sam Darnold playing his best ball in the NFL. I think Dallas had an impressive month and showed a lot even in the loss in Tampa Bay. Then I’m going with Denver to show that this team should be taken seriously with Teddy Bridgewater and the defense playing so well, and maybe things aren’t in great shape with Baltimore given the injuries and the fact that a 66-yard field goal was needed to escape the Lions.

I keep pointing out how the Chiefs have won one of their last 14 games by more than six points. But maybe this is the spot where they dominate again as the Eagles have not impressed the last two weeks. Jalen Hurts doesn’t seem to throw for many yards at home either in his career, so maybe the defense for Kansas City can actually step up for a change and the offense protects the ball better to get a much-needed win.

I’m going to be extremely pissed at the Steelers if they show up in Green Bay and get a win after losing home games by multiple scores to the Raiders and Bengals. Have you seen those teams play other weeks? Not that impressive with three overtime wins between them and a last-second field goal against Jacksonville. So if the Steelers won in Buffalo, who have looked dominant the other two weeks, and then in Green Bay, which still looks great offensively the last two games, I’m going to be pissed because that’s the same old “playing to the competition” bullshit they’ve done for years. But I really think the Pittsburgh offense is broken and Green Bay should cover.

In the NFC West, I like Seattle and the Rams in these first matchups of the year for that division. Sean McVay has owned the Cardinals in his career and now he has Stafford off to a great start. DeAndre Hopkins isn’t 100%. With the Seahawks, Wilson is having MVP first halves and the offense is disappearing in the second half. I think he can have a full game in this one and close out a Kyle Shanahan-coached team that consistently struggles to close games in the fourth quarter. I’m going to bet on Seattle to not lose three in a row.

I’m hedging with my picks on Monday night. I think the Chargers should win, but I can acknowledge the chance the Raiders get this one or only lose by a field goal.

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