I kept calling it the best Sunday of the 2025 NFL regular season. Did it live up to that hype? There were nine games with a comeback opportunity and eight game-winning drives, so that’s pretty good. I’m not sure I’d call any of the games classics or even in the game of the year competition, but it certainly was an eventful day and probably one that should reshape expectations for the rest of the season.
After predictions on Saturday night, I decided to look up how home teams have fared in the big games this season between teams who currently have a winning record. It hasn’t been as strong in recent years, and this year, the home team was 13-16 in such matchups.
Well, the home teams were 5-0 on Sunday, a clean sweep. I like to say the NFL is a league that’s about who you play and when you play them, but it looks like where you play still matters too. We’ll see if that holds up for the playoffs, which your guess is as good as mine if teams like the Chiefs, Lions, and Packers will still be in that tournament at this rate.
This season in NFL Stat Oddity:
Chiefs at Broncos: Game of the Week
It’s 5:35 AM as I ask myself do I feel like ranting about the Chiefs for a long time, or just hurry up and get into a warm bed? I’m thinking the bed sounds better, because there’s nothing that happened here that we haven’t been seeing all year with the Chiefs, who are 5-5 and in danger of missing the playoffs. Forget the AFC West reign likely ending now; they could miss the playoffs altogether because of the way the teams ahead of them keep winning and the future schedules for each.
The Broncos played well, played with a better focus and flexibility, and Spags hasn’t shown any answers for Bo Nix in three games yet. Remember, they win that game in Arrowhead last year if the special teams of the Chiefs didn’t block a 35-yard field goal. Nix had all day on a huge 3rd-and-15 before the two-minute warning, and he threw a perfect deep ball to Franklin to set up the winning field goal late. He did all of that with almost no running game with J.K. Dobbins out.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs threw wildly deep in moments they didn’t have to, forgot to run the ball, and put the game on Mahomes while forgetting to actually get those speedy wideouts involved (Rice and Worthy) against a secondary that didn’t have Patrick Surtain II. It’s getting scary that a 36-year-old tight end (Kelce) remains the most (only?) reliable target in the passing game. They need to find more snaps for Tyquan Thornton, who again made an impact with a 61-yard bomb on a big 3rd-and-7 in the third quarter when the Chiefs pretended to have something figured out in this one.
That’s after a bunch of bad penalties early that kept tripping them up from scoring more points, then even after a great effort by Kelce on the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter, Butker’s extra point was blocked when it should have been a 20-16 game. Maybe the defense can actually force a fourth-down stop had the Broncos needed to go for one late instead of kicking a game-tying field goal.
Then the Chiefs went three-and-out twice after the Kelce score, and they called 12 straight passes to end this game on offense. Lots of mistakes in there with the false start to begin a drive, a low snap on a third down, and another third-down sack. What happened to the scrambling Mahomes was doing in September? They needed that these last two games and he’s just not doing it for some reason.
Can’t keep “saving it for the playoffs” when it doesn’t look like there will be a playoffs if you keep losing these games. Again, the Chiefs gave up a 3rd-and-15 on the game-winning drive. That’s the fourth time this year the defense gave up a 3rd-and-10 conversion in the fourth quarter of a one-score game. They never did it more than three times in any season in 2018-24 (none in 2024).
It’s the first time the Chiefs have lost five-straight one-score games in the Mahomes era. There was always going to be some regression there after a record 17-0 streak before this year, but god damn, someone step up and make a play whether it’s on offense, defense, or special teams. It just seems like no one on this team wants to do it this year and that’s why they keep losing these games to teams who simply want it more and outplay them.
I don’t know how you fix this or if you can at this point. Might just be a lost year.
Seahawks at Rams: Played Again, Sam
No player disappointed more on Sunday than Seattle’s Sam Darnold, who was having such a great year. He was No. 1 in QBR, the Seahawks were killing teams, and he was almost perfect in the first half of these last few games. But man are the Rams his kryptonite, and if you’re a Seattle fan, you’re just worried if anything dressed as a “big game” is a signal for him to shit the bed.
He already coughed up a fumble to lose to the 49ers in Week 1, then marred his epic shootout performance against Baker and the Bucs with a late pick on a deflected pass. In this game, he was facing the pass rush that got him 9 times in January’s playoff loss with Minnesota.
But this time around, it was on Darnold. He threw 4 picks, two of which basically set up the Rams on short fields for touchdowns on a day where Matthew Stafford was nothing special at all. Seattle’s defense played hard, and it wasn’t like Darnold was under a heavy siege by the blitz all day, or if he had to keep trading touchdowns with Stafford. It just wasn’t that kind of game at all.
Even with all the mistakes, the Seahawks got the ball back late in a 21-19 game with a chance to go win it from the 1-yard line. Darnold did not mange the clock well, and if he was a little better, he should have been able to get a field goal attempt shorter than 61 yards. The kick by Jason Myers was nowhere close, and that’s ultimately how Seattle lost this first matchup with the Rams.
The Rams lead the NFC West now and have over 70% chance to win it. Darnold lost the QBR lead too, dropping to fourth. It’s a tough day when you feel like it’s been proven he’s just not a quarterback you can trust in these big games.
This win will give the Rams a lot of hype and praise this week as the team to beat, but we saw how good that did for the Packers at beating Pittsburgh or the Bills after beating the Chiefs. Have to keep stacking wins, and the Rams could have very well lost this game if Darnold wasn’t so brutal.
Lions at Eagles: Suddenly the Defense Is Unstoppable
I felt like I was watching the 10-7 game from Monday night again with the way the Eagles and Lions played this game. I thought Detroit would embrace the opportunity on the road against a contender like it did in Baltimore earlier this year, but I guess Jared Goff isn’t beating the allegations about being an indoor merchant. He was horrible in this game, posting the worst completion percentage of his career.
Guess calling plays against the Eagles is a lot tougher than Washington for Dan Campbell, who saw his offense turn it over on downs five times in a 6-drive span in the middle of the game.
That had to be disappointing for a shorthanded defense that did pretty well in keeping the Eagles down offensively again. But with the defense playing so elite again for the Eagles, it might not matter in the NFC. They can still win it all if they get the No. 1 seed. Much like Seattle, it’s a sobering loss for the Lions with Goff as they are in Year 5 of the Goff-Campbell experiment and running out of time to turn it into a Super Bowl.
If the playoffs started today, the Lions (6-4) would be out as the No. 8 seed.
Buccaneers at Bills: Josh Allen’s Wild Day
I think Josh Allen can dial back the awful two picks he had early in this game, but this is more or less what I think they need from him the rest of the season to get back on track. The Chiefs are struggling, might not even make the playoffs, and the Bills are looking at a wild card at best despite this beautiful schedule that gifted them another home game against a contender like the Bucs.
But the Bills stepped up after a lot of lead changes in this game and put away the Bucs in the fourth quarter. A facemask penalty on a Shakir tackle on third down was huge, leading to Allen’s sixth touchdown of the day.
But I think this is what the Bills need from Allen. Turnovers be damned, just go back to running the offense through him and let him sling it and run around. It helped that the matchup really dictated it as the Bucs are hard for James Cook to run against, but this was a promising type of win for the Bills.
With the Rams up next, Tampa is spiraling a bit here without its full weapons and shaky secondary.
Bengals at Steelers: Unc Bowl II Ends on a Sad Note
The Unc Bowl II started strong with Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers throwing touchdowns, but it quickly devolved into a defensive slugfest with a Mason Rudolph second half after Rodgers injured his wrist. It could be pretty serious too.
Pittsburgh’s defense again made the big splash plays with Kyle Dugger taking back a Flacco pass for a huge pick-six, then a Noah Fant catch led to a fumble return touchdown as the Steelers blew this one wide open in an easy win.
But all eyes on Rodgers’ wrist and the news there. This game was also a sobering experience as it’s likely the last time I ever get to watch a live NFL game where both starting quarterbacks are older than I am.
Chargers at Jaguars: Pure Domination
I learned my lesson the hard way again. You just can’t trust the Chargers against the Jaguars as that’s a third embarrassing loss in the Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence era. Lawrence was nothing special here, but at least he was part of the game. Herbert threw for 81 yards and left in the fourth quarter with the score out of hand.
Very lifeless game by the Chargers, who are lucky the Chiefs lost again.
Panthers at Falcons: The Bryce Young Show
Now where has this Bryce Young been? He has one game all year with 200 passing yards, then he throws for 448 yards in maybe the best game of his NFL career against an Atlanta pass defense that has been getting a lot of praise for its sacks and keeping the yardage down this year. Make it make sense as Young even did this after getting injured early in the game.
He still led a 14-point comeback while Michael Penix Jr. (DOOM) left the game injured after a great start. Kirk Cousins at least got a game-tying field goal drive to force overtime, but he couldn’t move the offense once he got there. The Panthers were able to get the game-winning field goal and are 6-5 and very much alive for the NFC South with Tampa’s slide.
Falconing at a high degree here.
Ravens at Browns: That’s Why Sander Was a 5th-Round Pick and QB3
It’s funny how you can look at a list of inactives and think Justice Hill being out isn’t a huge deal for Baltimore. But it really was. Hill is a good receiving back, and his presence was missed when backup Keaton Mitchell had a pass go off his hands and into the Browns for a pick-six. Lamar Jackson also had another pass tipped at the line that was picked, he didn’t throw a touchdown to end his 30-game streak, and he took 4 sacks by Myles Garrett alone as Cleveland pushed for an upset bid.
But the Browns didn’t get it because Dillon Gabriel was knocked out for a concussion, and rookie Shedeur Sanders showed he’s not ready and why he slid in the draft with a pretty horrible performance, going 4-of-16 and getting sacked a few times with a bad pick.
But the Ravens still needed a very cool Mark Andrews trick play on the Tush Push to score a 35-yard touchdown run to get the game-winning drive in the books before Sanders’ failed answer drive.
I don’t think Sanders is the solution to Cleveland’s many woes.
49ers at Cardinals: Jacoby’s Record-Setting Day in Defeat
What the fvck are the Cardinals even doing these days? They went from losing very close games on the final play every week to getting blown out before halftime but not before Jacoby Brissett piles up huge passing numbers in a multi-score loss.
The 49ers feasted on short fields and big plays in Brock Purdy’s return game, but the weird story was Brissett tying the NFL record with 47 pass completions on 57 attempts for 452 yards. He also managed to not take a single sack. You’ll see people say he broke the record for completions in a game, which is true for the regular season. But Ben Roethlisberger completed 47 passes in a 2020 playoff loss to the Browns, so he actually tied the record that’s been done before.
It’s amusing that this is done without Kyler Murray or Marvin Harrison Jr. active because of injuries, but it’s not like it’s helping Arizona win anything.
Bears at Vikings: Ben Johnson and Kevin O’Connell Split Close Series
If I looked at the best coaching records among actives in 4QC/GWD opportunities, Ben Johnson (5-2) and Kevin O’Connell (17-16) are near the top. KOC’s Vikings got the best of Johnson’s Bears in his debut in Week 1, and it looked like it might happen again after J.J. McCarthy shook off a pretty horrible 57 minutes before leading a nice go-ahead touchdown drive.
But damn that new kickoff rule. The Bears pulled off a 56-yard kick return, and just like that in a 17-16 game, they were at the Minnesota 40. Three fairly conservative runs later, the Bears were able to kick a 48-yard field goal to win the game, which Cairo Santos did for them to get to 7-3.
Tough way to lose for the Vikings. I guess McCarthy missed that LOAT course at Michigan on how to will your opponent to miss the clutch field goal. Or they just don’t offer that in 2025 like they used to.
Packers at Giants: Winston Special
I had to wait until the final 40 seconds before the J&J Pick Parade (J.J. McCarthy and Jameis Winston to both throw interceptions) hit this Sunday. Winston almost had another upset in his first start for the Giants as the Packers have just struggled all year despite large spreads. Jordan Love was out of the lineup momentarily in this one for an injury but returned and did some positive things, including a game-winning drive without Josh Jacobs.
Then the defense finally put it away with a pick of Winston with 36 seconds left. Since the Giants, in their first game with interim coach Mike Kafka, had all three timeouts, they actually generated another drive with just 10 seconds left. That too ended with a Winston turnover on a Micah Parsons strip-sack, fittingly.
Big save by the Packers, who lost to Tommy DeVito and the Giants two years ago. Not happening to Jameis this year.
Texans at Titans: Some Modest Improvement
Maybe my best pick this week was for the Titans (+5.5) to cover and still lose to Houston. It was a 6-0 game going into the fourth quarter the last time they met before short fields helped Houston blow it open 26-0. Throw in a short week, interim coach, and you’d hope Tennessee would clean some things up and play better.
That happened, and props to Cam Ward for leading a 95-yard game-tying touchdown drive late. But he learned the hard way about the help you get from the new kickoff rules (starting at your 35 from a touchback) and being let down by your defense, which let Davis Mills convert a 3rd-and-16 to Nico Collins to eventually get a 35-yard field goal with no time left in a 16-13 final.
Commanders vs. Dolphins: Thank You, Mike McDaniel
The NFL went to Madrid, Spain and gave the audience three goal-line stands, and I especially liked the one where the Commanders ran the ball with three different backs on three plays in a row and none could score before Marcus Mariota missed the fourth-down throw.
But I want to thank Mike McDaniel for I believe becoming the first coach in this new overtime system to win the coin toss and elect to go on defense first. I think that’s the ideal strategy, and it’s even stronger in a 13-13 game where you’re facing Marcus Mariota. You’re not afraid of him leading a long touchdown drive.
Sure enough, he was picked on the first play and that set up the Dolphins for an easy game-winning drive that was just 3 handoffs for 22 yards before a 29-yard field goal to win in 16-13.
Next week: Thursday night isn’t bad (Bills-Texans) if we get C.J. Stroud (concussion) back for it. On Sunday, the Colts’ No. 1 offense and Lou Anarumo-led offense can drop the Chiefs to 5-6 and possibly a deathblow to their playoff chances this year in a big one. Doesn’t sound promising for Aaron Rodgers to face the Bears one more time in Chicago in a game both teams need. Bucs at Rams isn’t bad for SNF but McVay usually does well against that team. Monday night is Carolina at 49ers, a game that is surprisingly not a joke on paper but not overly exciting either.
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 
The NFL really ruined everything with the 7th playoff team. The Chiefs and Lions would be in massive trouble if only 6 teams got in but with 7 teams getting in and some of the teams ahead of them I just can’t see the Chiefs being any worse than the 7th seed assuming Mahomes stays healthy. All they have to do most likely is finish 10-7 to make the playoffs (Idk the tiebreakers but I don’t see both the Jags and Chargers finishing with 10+ wins), whereas if there were 6 teams they would probably have to go 11-6 at worst, maybe even 12-5. Lions as well I think at least one of the Bears and 49ers will fall down to earth enough for them to get in whereas if it was 6 teams they’d need both to fall out.