NFL Stat Oddity: Week 10

November 13, 2023 ~ Scott ~ 11 Comments

Like I said on Saturday, if you ignore the island game mess, the NFL had a solid Week 10 lined up. Sunday proved to be one of the best days of the season so far with a few big upsets in the AFC North and a handful of games where teams kept exchanging scores before someone kicked a field goal with no time left.

The NFL may not have sent its best to Germany again, nor did it bother using the flex option on Sunday night so we didn’t have to see the Jets fail to reach the end zone again. But with the Chiefs, Eagles, and Dolphins all on a bye week, it is hard to argue with Week 10’s quality. Sometimes the bad weeks on paper tun out to be some of the best played weeks.

In all, we had 10 out of 13 games (MNF pending) with a comeback opportunity. While there were technically only two lead changes in the fourth quarter in Week 10, and one of those didn’t happen until the clock showed 0:00, it was a fantastic week for watching teams match scores in the fourth quarter.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Lions at Chargers: Game of the Week or Year?

Ladies and gentlemen, the Chargers are back. This was the Week 10 game I had circled, because I knew we were not going to see the Chargers cruise to an easy win like they had in prime time the last two weeks against the Bears and Jets. We were going to see the Chargers in their element: late afternoon, Justin Herbert trying to bail out Brandon Staley’s defense in a 7-point game in the fourth quarter with a wild finish.

But this was not your usual case of Chargering, because the Chargers actually never led in this game despite the 41-38 final and the Los Angeles offense scoring five straight touchdown drives of at least 68 yards to end the game.

Last season, we saw the Lions tie an NFL record by scoring 45 points in a wire-to-wire loss at home against Seattle in a 48-45 game. This time, the Lions won wire-to-wire despite allowing 38 points. It is only the 20th time that has happened in NFL history.

For the Chargers, I think it was the kind of game we’ve come to expect from them. Herbert played great, he only had one turnover, no sacks, and he threw for 323 yards and 4 touchdowns with a dominant Keenan Allen game (11 catches for 175 yards, 2 touchdowns).

For the Lions, I think it showed the great potential of this offense at full strength. David Montgomery returned and had a 75-yard rushing touchdown to go along with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs rushing for 77 yards and two touchdowns. Jared Goff was very good with 333 yards and no turnovers, and Amon-Ra St. Brown was dominant with 8 catches for 156 yards and a touchdown. Detroit had 533 yards of offense.

If you wanted to nitpick, the game does show some concern that the Lions may be a bit of a paper tiger (or paper lion) on defense. They won’t be able to pressure the top offenses and keep them down on the scoreboard like they’ll need to if they’re going to win a Super Bowl. The Chargers looked great for the most part on offense, and Detroit’s offense had to be spectacular to pull out the win.

Even on the game-winning drive, which started with 3:34 left, we saw the Lions bypass a 44-yard field goal on 4th-and-2 to make sure they could set up the field goal as the final snap. Hard to believe that happened in a tied game, but Dan Campbell has the reputation he does for a reason. Still, you think if he trust his defense he’d consider the field goal with 1:47 left to take the lead. But if you are that concerned about Herbert going for a touchdown, then I understand the call.

Goff delivered the 6-yard gain to Sam LaPorta, which I greatly appreciated, and the win was there. Glad to see our Chargers back on brand.

I would argue the Chargers have played the two most entertaining games of the 2023 season, and they were both home losses to the Dolphins and Lions. I’d probably give the Miami game the edge since it had multiple lead changes and the highlights were a bit stronger. It also ended on a defensive stop, a foreign concept to Staley.

Browns at Ravens: Vintage 2022 Baltimore Football

I just said a couple of weeks ago how no one can stay on top for long this season before getting knocked down a peg. The Ravens were getting a lot of hype, understandably, this week before they had their chance to sweep the Browns and put more of a chokehold on their AFC North lead.

But we have already watched this team beat itself against the Colts and Steelers, shades of what they did often in 2022 even before Lamar Jackson was lost to injury. Sure enough, despite leading at home 14-0, 17-3, 24-9, then 31-17 in the fourth quarter, the Ravens did it again in a shocking 33-31 loss to the Browns, who trailed for all but 40 seconds in the game. They literally threw a pick-six on the second play from scrimmage and trailed until the field goal went through with no time left for their only lead of the game. Hard to top that. The Ravens are just 1-3 in close games this year.

To be fair, there was some fool’s gold feeling about the leads in this game. The pick-6 was a fantastic defensive play, but it was still a tipped ball that bounced the right way. The Ravens also got a 39-yard touchdown run from their new toy Keaton Mitchell, but he somehow finished the game with 3 carries for 34 yards. None of Baltimore’s other 23 runs gained more than 9 yards, and Cleveland had the better ground game with 36 carries for 178 yards.

Baltimore was up 14-0 and Jackson was only 3-of-3 for 30 yards. If Deshaun Watson could just calm down from his horrible start, then they were going to have a chance as the running game was finding traction, and the Ravens have a recent history of melting down after blowing a handful of multi-score leads last year, including 21 points to Miami and 17 points to Buffalo.

The Browns were able to block a 55-yard field goal by Justin Tucker, which is no easy feat, and they intercepted Jackson late in the half, but didn’t get any points out of it after a curious decision to let backup P.J. Walker throw a Hail Mary instead of attempting a 60-yard field goal.

Odell Beckham Jr. showed vintage speed on a 40-yard touchdown catch to start the third quarter, but the Browns started to get in a groove and matched it with their own touchdown. But after Myles Garrett sacked Jackson on a 3rd-and-17, the Browns seemed to commit a fatal mistake with a muffed punt, giving the Ravens the ball back at the Cleveland 12. Despite being that close to the end zone, the Ravens used 3:17 on the clock to go those 12 yards for a touchdown and take a 31-17 lead with 11:34 left. It was a ghastly drive, but it was effective in taking off more time all thanks to penalties on both teams, including a Cleveland penalty that wiped out another Jackson pick.

You normally think the game should be over here, but the Browns drove for another 75-yard touchdown, then the bounce finally went their way as they got their own tipped Jackson pass at the line that was returned for a touchdown with 8:16 left. But instead of tying the game, kicker Dustin Hopkins missed the extra point wide left. Cleveland still trailed 31-30.

The offense burned a little clock, but with the group out of sync, no strong running game to rely on, and an inexcusable delay of game penalty, the Ravens soon punted it back with 4:55 left.

Cleveland’s drive was not pretty, and it had to recover a Watson strip-sack, but it was effective in getting the job done. Watson had a big 16-yard scramble into Baltimore territory, then Jerome Ford’s 12-yard run made a field goal likely. The Browns were able to set it up as the last play and Hopkins redeemed himself with a 40-yard field goal to win it 33-31 to send the Browns to 6-3 and right on the heels of the Ravens (7-3).

It has to be frustrating for Baltimore fans when it looked just like one of 2022’s losses. No lead feels truly safe with this team, and that was not the case in Baltimore for a solid two decades.

As for Cleveland, going into games like this with Watson at quarterback can’t feel good. He did enough to salvage this one, but that defense and running game are going to have to be on point for this to work in January.

But it is getting more likely that the Browns will be in that playoff mix. They could even win the division now that they secured a split with the Ravens, who lost another they should have won.

Texans at Bengals: Chapter 1 in a Future AFC Rivalry?

I think the 2019-22 seasons were largely about figuring out who would rival Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC in the 2020s. We needed new power dynamics in the conference like we used to have with teams like the Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Chargers, and some key appearances from the Ravens and Broncos.

Some contenders emerged like the Bills and Bengals, but we might be able to throw Houston into the mix soon if C.J. Stroud is going to be like this.

It was even a step back from his record-setting performance against Tampa Bay last week, but Stroud still managed to impress with another 356 passing yards in leading Houston to 30 points, and it could have been a lot more with that if the Texans protected the ball better. The Texans had 544 yards of offense, but between Stroud losing 2 fumbles early and throwing a shocking interception with a 10-point lead with 3:33 left, Houston had to sweat this one out after dominating for much of the game.

But even with all the turnovers, I want to point out that Stroud produced these big numbers as a 6.5-point road underdog against a defense that has been limiting great offenses the last few years. He also did it without No. 1 wide receiver Nico Collins, who was inactive, a story I didn’t even know about until the game was almost over. Yet, you heard all week how Tee Higgins was going to be out for this game for Cincinnati, and Ja’Marr Chase was questionable, even though he played and had 124 yards and a touchdown.

But the Texans didn’t sweat the Collins injury, and Stroud threw for 172 yards on 7-of-8 passing to Noah Brown, a forgotten receiver from Dallas who was best known for confusing viewers if CeeDee Lamb just added to his stats. Brown was going to be at best the No. 4 wideout in this offense behind Collins, rookie Tank Dell, veteran slot Robert Woods, and maybe even No. 5 behind John Metchie, a second-round pick in 2022. But Brown had 153 yards against Tampa Bay last week and 172 in this game with Stroud.

That’s why I’m saying if Stroud’s going to be legitimate like this, then we could have a new layer to this AFC. Imagine what things can look like if he gets a defense at some point soon under coach DeMeco Ryans.

There were some miscues in this game that he will hopefully learn from. After Joe Burrow threw a horrible interception in the end zone, his second in the fourth quarter, with 3:53 left, this looked like game over with Houston leading 27-17. But three plays later, Stroud threw his own horrible pick that was nearly returned for a touchdown in a spot where he could have ended the game. It was only his second interception of the season, but like I always say, this Cincinnati defense gets the timely ones like that.

Joe Mixon capped off a 4-yard touchdown drive and it was 27-24 with plenty of time. Houston even helped with another 3-and-out after Stroud was unable to put it away on a 3rd-and-3.

Believe it or not in Week 10, but this was the first time all season the Bengals had a 4QC/GWD opportunity on offense. It only took two plays for the Bengals to be deep in the red zone after Tyler Boyd took a short pass and ran 64 yards with it. But Burrow was sacked, then Boyd dropped a go-ahead score on third-and-goal. Not the most egregious drop, and not a definite game winner, but it definitely hurt, and it was a play he usually makes.

The Bengals had to settle for a 31-yard game-tying field goal and hope for overtime. But it was a bad day for defenses on the field late. Stroud was able to shake off his mistakes and found two more 20-yard plays on the day to set up his new backup kicker, Matt Ammendola, for a 38-yard field goal to win the game with no time left.

Stroud just posted back-to-back games with 350 passing yards and a game-winning drive. That’s as many such games as Tony Romo and Russell Wilson have in their careers, and it’s more than the one career game for Burrow, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, and Lamar Jackson – the other AFC contenders who have been floated as Mahomes’ rival in the last 5 years. If you’re curious, Mahomes’ number for this is 4 games.

Granted, this 350-yard game with a game-winning drive for Stroud could have been a 300-yard game with a 10-point win or 27-24 win had the rookie converted either of his first two 3rd-down opportunities. But the Bengals have fooled better quarterbacks into bigger mistakes before, and Stroud overcame all of that for a huge win as Houston (5-4) secures a key tiebreaker over the Bengals (5-4), who are in trouble again with a trip to Baltimore on a short week coming up this Thursday night.

Now granted, it was only a couple of weeks ago when Houston lost 15-13 to Carolina, the only win for the Panthers this season. It was also only in 2017 when I said Deshaun Watson was on pace for the greatest rookie quarterback season ever, and we know how that eventually turned out.

But after closing one of the darkest chapters in Texans history, the fans must be thrilled about this first chapter for Stroud.

49ers at Jaguars: Super Dud

My only comfortable read on this game was to take the under 45, because I wasn’t feeling very confident in the offenses going up against these defenses. In the end, it was one of the most lopsided games of the year as the 49ers rolled them 34-3. They even tried to get Christian McCaffrey a late touchdown to try extending his streak to 18 games, but it ended on a day where basically everyone else scored, including Deebo Samuel in his return game.

The 49ers were struggling with turnovers and the Jacksonville defense was tied for the league lead in takeaways. But the 49ers won the turnover battle 4-0, and that had a lot to do with the blowout score. Trevor Lawrence was picked twice and coughed up a fumble, and Christian Kirk had a bad fumble inside the 10 in the third quarter that sucked all the life out of this one at 20-3. The 49ers drove 81 yards the other way to make it 27-3 with Samuel’s 23-yard touchdown run and it was a wrap.

The bye week served the 49ers (6-3) well as this is still the most talented team in the league. The Jaguars (6-3) were outclassed, and I think there are legitimate concerns for why this offense isn’t producing more. The situational stats are lousy on the season, Calvin Ridley has not had a big impact, and Lawrence is not taking the next step forward. They look like they have a hard ceiling on where they can go right now.

Saints at Vikings: Dobbs Delivers in Starting Debut

The Vikings have gone from 1-4 to the longest active winning streak at 5 games after another one-possession win over the Saints in the first start for Joshua Dobbs. He has picked up the offense quickly and was excellent in this game with 268 yards, no interceptions, and he ran for 44 yards and another touchdown, showing off his mobility that has been foreign to this Minnesota offense for a long time.

But the Vikings did almost collapse from a 27-3 lead in the second half. An ineffective Derek Carr was injured and replaced by Jameis Winston, who led a pair of touchdown drives to make it 27-19. With a couple of 2-point conversion runs by Alvin Kamara, we almost were witnesses to the fabled 8+8+8 comeback from a 24-point deficit.

But the skillset of Winston that makes him dangerous to face is the same that makes him dangerous to his own team’s wellbeing. He likes to be aggressive with the ball and throw deep, and that burned him with a pair of interceptions late in the game that he really didn’t need to force because of the ample time left.

Winston had over 3 minutes left at midfield on the first one, and almost a full 2 minutes left in Minnesota territory on the last one, which came on a first down too. By the time the Vikings got the ball back, there was only time for a Hail Mary, which fell incomplete to end the game.

The Saints (5-5) continue to struggle while the Vikings are thriving even without Justin Jefferson for the last month and now without Kirk Cousins for the last two games. But Kevin O’Connell is getting to show that he knows how to coach offense, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison have stepped up, and Dobbs is doing very well.

This can still be a playoff team. Hell, they could win the division if they were to sweep Detroit, but one game at a time.

Commanders at Seahawks: Receiving Backs on the Loose

The closer we got to Sunday, the more I liked this to be a shootout with the No. 1 wide receivers dominating these secondaries. D.K. Metcalf finished with 98 yards, but it was improbably long touchdowns on short throws to running backs that put the only touchdowns on the board early in what was a field goal fest into the fourth quarter. Washington’s Brian Robinson had a 51-yard touchdown catch to start the game and Kenneth Walker created a 64-yard scoring play in the third quarter.

Eventually, the game got to where I imagined with both quarterbacks throwing for over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns. Like some other games on Sunday, it was back-and-forth scoring drives until the end with the teams combining to score on the final 5 drives.

Sam Howell led Washington on two game-tying touchdown drives. The last came with 52 seconds left, and I think that left Seattle a little too much time (with 2 timeouts left) to drive for a game-winning field goal had the Commanders gone for a 2-point conversion to try to take a lead. As we saw anyway in a tied game, Seattle was able to set up Jason Myers for a 43-yard field goal at the buzzer after two big catches by Metcalf for 44 yards.

In the end, it was about the game you’d expect between these teams. The Seahawks are 6-3 despite still being outscored by 1 point on the season. The Commanders (4-6) throw the ball more than anyone and basically have the record they deserve with an ugly loss to the Giants cancelling out an unlikely 18-point comeback win in Denver.

Falcons at Cardinals: Return of the Jedi (The One as Tall as Yoda)

On the 11-month anniversary of his torn ACL, Kyler Murray made his return to the field. Without seeing him in so long, you forget how little he is and how unique his running looks when he’s scooting around the field.

Murray’s return was a success as he led the Cardinals to a 25-23 win over a spiraling Atlanta team that has now lost to three straight quarterbacks making their season debut for their team (rookie Will Levis in Tennessee, Joshua Dobbs in Minnesota, and now Murray).

Meanwhile, the Falcons were getting nothing out of Taylor Heinicke in this game, who had 15 pass attempts and 55 passing yards in the fourth quarter before he was knocked out with an injury and replaced by Desmond Ridder. But if you are going to throw so little, why even bench Ridder in the first place?

Ridder sparked the offense in his return. After he was stopped on a 4th-down run earlier in the quarter, Ridder finished his second drive with a 9-yard touchdown run to give the Falcons a 23-22 lead with 2:33 left. But the Falcons missed the crucial 2-point conversion as Ridder was incomplete for Drake London, who bailed out Ridder with an incredible catch earlier in the drive.

Murray keyed his team’s game-winning drive with a 13-yard scramble on a 3rd-and-10, then hit his tight end Trey McBride for a 33-yard gain, the longest in the game. In fact, this game had 4 plays that gained 19+ yards and McBride had 3 of them.

That was enough for the Cardinals to set up a 23-yard field goal as the final snap for Matt Prater, who nailed it for a 25-23 win. Muray was 19-of-32 for 249 yards, a pick, and he rushed for 33 yards and a touchdown.

I think the Falcons (4-6) are a bit screwed as they head into their bye. I’d go back to Ridder for the next game but not sure it’ll matter at this point. As for the Cardinals (2-8), they are in a weird position. The return of Murray probably means they are not going to get the No. 1 pick, but do they still settle for a different rookie quarterback in 2024, or do they try to make this work with Murray?

I guess it depends on how well he plays the rest of the year. After some of the recent draft duds with these college quarterbacks, sometimes newer isn’t any better.

Packers at Steelers: Mostly on Brand

When this game started with three straight touchdown drives, I felt bamboozled again. These are two of the worst offenses in the league, especially in the first half of games. But apparently, Matt Canada calling the game from the field at least produces a good start.

It’s the rest of the game where the offense doesn’t do much as Kenny Pickett only passed for 126 yards in this one. I was not impressed (again). Pickett’s 24.3 QBR was the lowest of any quarterback to win in Week 10. He got away with an awful pick on the second touchdown drive after the defender just failed to get his feet in bounds at the sideline.

The good news is this was one of the best run blocking performances by the Steelers in the last 5 years. They had 205 yards on the ground. Keeping veteran Dan Moore at his usual left tackle spot and putting first-round rookie Broderick Jones at right tackle has helped improve the line.

But the Steelers had to grind for this one again as Jordan Love was gambling and getting away with it for three quarters. The Packers even started the fourth quarter with a trick play that looked like it would have worked, but the receiver dropped the ball in a 20-19 game. Actually, they ruled it a fumble that the Packers recovered, which is what the team would have wanted ruled earlier when it sure looked like the Steelers had a lateral that Green Bay recovered. But it was ruled an incomplete pass.

Down 23-19, Love was picked in the end zone after Patrick Peterson tipped a ball to Keanu Neal that was intended for Christian Watson. Almost like the Seattle play at the end of the 2013 NFC Championship Game against San Francisco. Love had some success in this game, but he was 2/7 for 23 yards and 2 interceptions when targeting Watson, who I want to start calling Cheesehead Claypool after this disappearing act following a good rookie year. Similar to what Chase Claypool did in Pittsburgh in 2020-21.

But Love had a chance with 59 seconds left to drive 81 yards for the win. He got 46 of them right away with a big play to Jayden Reed, the second-round rookie who continues to improve. It looked like the Steelers might blow this one, but just like last week when they stopped the Titans with a game-ending pick in a 4-point win as a 3-point home favorite, they did the exact same thing here with a game-ending pick in the red zone off Love.

The Packers have now gone 7 straight games without scoring 21 points, their longest streak since a 10-game streak in 1990-91.

The Steelers have been outgained in every game this season and are still 6-3, which has never been done before. In fact, the Steelers are the 107th team since 1940 to be outgained in at least 9 straight games at any time of year, and they have the best record (6-3) among those teams. The only other team out of the 107 to have a winning record was the 1985-86 Browns, who were 5-4. You could say Mike Tomlin is doing some Marty Schottenheimer (Martyball) things with this team.

But it’s really just turnover differential and timely plays. I don’t know how long they can sustain this, but the schedule still looks favorable for 9-10 wins doing exactly this style of play.

Giants at Cowboys: Monster Dallas Win Against Division II Team

The Cowboys did not disappoint with the biggest point spread of the season (-17.5) in a 49-17 thrashing of the Giants. Dak Prescott passed for 404 yards and 4 touchdowns. CeeDee Lamb had 11 catches for 151 yards and scored a rushing touchdown. He is the first player ever to stack three straight games with 10 catches and 150 receiving yards.

But I believe games like this only fuel why people don’t trust the Cowboys. They basically operate in three modes:

Blowing out scrubs like the Tommy DeVito-led Giants.
Playing down to scrubs like their upset loss in Arizona this year or nearly blowing it as a 17-point home favorite against the 2022 Texans last December.
Looking dumb and losing to elite teams like the Eagles and 49ers.

When the Cowboys bring their A game, they look like the best team in the league. But just like how no one trusts the Dolphins this year against the good teams, we have been right to treat Dallas the same way for years.

Also, the Giants have to be the worst team in the NFL, right? Save for a half in Arizona where the Cardinals may have literally tanked, this team has been garbage on offense all year and now the defense is starting to give up huge numbers too.

The Giants are 4-15-1 under Brian Daboll ever since his 6-1 start.

Colts vs. Patriots: We Haven’t Sent Our Best to Germany Since WWII Ended

I woke up at noon and saw it was 10-6 Colts with just under 5:00 left, and all I could do was laugh. Of course, we send the Colts to Germany for their first island game of the season and immediately their streak of scoring 20 points in every game under Shane Steichen ends. That was my only good prediction for this game.

But I started checking the box score and it didn’t seem like a 10-6 game. Each team had a respectable third-down conversion rate (respectable for who these QBs are), there was only one turnover (Gardner Minshew INT) to that point, there were no failed fourth-down plays, and each team missed a field goal.

Looking into it later, what you had was abysmal red zone play by the Patriots, a bunch of third-down sacks taken by Mac Jones, and an 8-minute drive that bled into the fourth quarter before Bill Belichick still settled for a 24-yard field goal instead of going for a 4th-and-goal at the 5. It was 7-3 and your little kick made it 7-6. Why not take advantage of the field position and go for it? Your defense was playing great.

Of course, the Patriots wasted this defensive effort when Jones threw an atrocious interception in the red zone with 4:16 left.

Mac Jones 🎯 Julian Blackmonpic.twitter.com/56yCSlH310
— PFF (@PFF) November 12, 2023

That could have been the end of the Jones era in New England, because he was benched for the final drive when the Patriots got the ball back with 1:52 left. Bailey Zappe took over, and the move might have been permanent if he led this team on a 95-yard game-winning touchdown drive. Things were moving to midfield too before maybe the worst fake spike of all time:

FAKE SPIKE INTERCEPTION. #INDvsNE pic.twitter.com/wvW6l2ItDg
— NFL (@NFL) November 12, 2023

I can’t seem to find the Madden view of this one, because that makes it look even worse. So much for the Zappe era, and so much for the Belichick era ending on a high note. He should have just walked away after 2018, because now he’s going to have to find a new team for 2024 if he’s going to coach long enough to break the all-time wins record.

By the way, this is the first time the Patriots lost a game after only allowing 10 points since September 23, 2001 against the Jets. That was the fateful game where Drew Bledsoe was injured by a Mo Lewis hit and Tom Brady replaced him in a 10-3 loss.

If Belichick was hoping a quarterback change would save his bacon this day, he was sorely mistaken.

Titans at Buccaneers: Can’t Find a Pulse

Admit it, you didn’t care one iota about this game. The Titans have played 6 games away from Nashville this season and have yet to top 16 points in any of them. They are also 0-6 when not home where they are 3-0 and average 27.5 points per game. Fun.

As it turns out, the low success rate Will Levis had in his 4 touchdown debut against Atlanta that was filled with 50-yard bombs has not led to more success for the rookie. This was his worst outing yet as he completed 19-of-39 passes for 199 yards and took 4 sacks in the 20-6 loss. Even the running game was shut down (16 carries for 42 yards) as the Buccaneers looked completely different from the defense that was shredded by C.J. Stroud and the Texans last week.

Mike Evans had a huge game with 143 yards and a touchdown, and he even dropped another score. He had 4 catches of 20-plus yards. The Titans didn’t have a play gain more than 15 yards until they trailed 20-6 with half a quarter to play.

Not much more to say about this one. The Titans’ offense simply hasn’t traveled all year long.

Jets at Raiders: J-E-T-S Just Embargo Touchdown Scoring

Since Monday night, we have watched the Jets play 8 quarters in prime time without the team scoring a single touchdown. The Jets have 8 offensive touchdowns in 9 games this season, so I guess it’s not that big of a surprise. But when you can’t break through against the defenses of the Chargers and Raiders, you have some pretty big flaws.

The Jets weren’t doing bad in this field goal fest, and I guess a 16-12 final with only 22 total possessions was better than the toilet bowl this game could have been. But once the Raiders finally broke the 9-9 tie by finding the end zone thanks to a 40-yard run by Josh Jacobs, you felt like the Jets had little hope without a massive turnover and easy field position for Zach Wilson and the offense.

Aidan O’Connell wasn’t great for the Raiders, but he only turned it over once, and he threw a game-winning touchdown pass to rookie tight end Michael Mayer. After the Jets caught their break when the defense forced a Jacobs fumble with 6:06 left, Wilson saved his worst decision of the night on an interception from the Raiders 20 by Robert Spillane with 1:14 left.

The Raiders went 3-and-out and saved the Jets a timeout by throwing incomplete on 3rd-and-5, which I would have called a run to Jacobs for. Wilson had 53 seconds left to go 80 yards, an even bigger miracle than the game-tying drive against the Giants this year. Tight end Tyler Conklin did make some nice plays, including a 27-yard grab, to give the Jets a chance, but they wasted a solid 7 seconds by not getting their final timeout in after Conklin was down. Jets coach Robert Saleh alleged he was trying to get the timeout at 20 seconds, but no one acknowledged him. I’m not sure what happened there but it left the Jets only with 13 seconds left and 44 more yards to go. That’s 2 plays.

I have to say Wilson did a very good job of escaping pressure on the final snap and giving his guys a shot at the Hail Mary in the end zone. But it was not caught, and the Jets lost 16-12 to fall to 4-5, which will be no better than 13th in the AFC.

The Raiders are suddenly 5-5 and celebrating wins under interim coach Antonio Pierce like they won the Super Bowl, but these New York teams are not anyone’s Super Bowl this year. The schedule will get much tougher and I’ll be surprised if the Raiders don’t max out at 7-10, which is the record I had for them before the season started.

The Jets gambled on a quarterback staying hot after his 40th birthday, and they made his backup the kid who thinks hotness begins at 40. They are losing for it now.

Because unlike the past boring editions of teams who just try to hide the quarterback by playing great defense and running the ball, the Jets don’t do enough running. The backs had 17 carries for 54 yards in Vegas, and these are no scrubs with Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. But Wilson himself had 4 runs for 54 yards as a scrambler.

But hey, as long as they keep starting him, we get to see records. Wilson is the first quarterback since the 1970 merger to pass for 260 yards in back-to-back games without leading his team to a single touchdown in either game.

Just put an embargo on touchdown scoring and the Jets might be playoff ready.

Next week: The last time I was this ready for a MNF game, it was cancelled halfway through the first quarter. But Eagles-Chiefs is a big one, and since it’s prime time where offense dies this season, I fully expect the Chiefs to win 16-13. But Bengals-Ravens on TNF is another big one, Steelers-Browns should be a bloodbath at 1:00, and we’ll just ignore the absolute mess they lined up for the late afternoon and SNF (Vikings-Broncos). But I might have a special preview on Chiefs-Eagles or at least something related this week.

NFL Week 10 Predictions: Island Game Slop Edition

November 11, 2023 ~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

The NFL’s Week 10 schedule is not the worst I’ve ever seen, but the sequencing of the games with the choices for the four island games might be the worst this century. Would the week sound so bad if Thursday night started with Seattle hosting Washington, the Germany game was Lions-Chargers, Sunday night was 49ers-Jaguars, and Monday night was I guess the same Broncos-Bills matchup assuming Denver plays better?

The masses had no business seeing Panthers-Bears, Colts-Patriots, and Jets-Raiders, and that was true back in April. Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams in the same stadium? Who gives a shit? Enjoy the season-low ratings for Zach Wilson vs. Aidan O’Connell since you chose not to flex and spare us, NBC.

But Colts-Patriots is laughably bad for a 9:30 a.m. start. After the disappointment last week with Chiefs-Dolphins, I will not be getting up for this one. In fact, I might get up normal time (12:05), take a shit, take a shower, and maybe I’ll catch the tail end to see if the Colts kept their 20-points streak alive. To think a Colts-Patriots game used to be the biggest thing in the NFL. How the mighty have fallen.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Midseason Review: Division Races and Super Bowl Odds – I take a look at the division races and updated Super Bowl 58 odds before making my picks for the 8 division winners and Super Bowl winner.
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 10 – I need some Ws after a couple of rough weeks, and while I still couldn’t help myself from making + parlays, I hit the unders often this week.
Computer Picks (BMR)
Computer Picks (OT)
Prime Time Picks (BMR)
Prime Time Picks (OT)
Best Bets
Upset Alert: Vikings over Saints
Player Props (BMR)
Player Props (OT)

NFL Week 10 Predictions

No one won on Bears-Panthers on TNF with a push. I really didn’t win thanks to 2 f’n yards that Chuba Hubbard couldn’t get.

I want to start by saying favorites were 12-2 SU last week (good spread record too, I believe), so maybe this is a bounce-back week for underdogs, but I didn’t see a lot of enticing ones on the schedule. Just ended up taking the Vikings over Saints, then I also changed my pick from Tampa to Tennessee. Might be letting the Will Levis game vs. Atlanta screw me over twice here as I just think he can hit some big plays against the Bucs, and Kyler Murray might be the next QB to make his season debut for his team and upset the path to doom Falcons.

Honestly, I have no real feel for Colts-Patriots. It might be the biggest gap the Colts have over the Patriots roster-wise since 2005 or even longer ago. But when my brain has gone to “island game = shit offense” and I see the way the Colts didn’t even get 200 yards in Carolina and won thanks to 2 pick-sixes last week, I’m just going to go with the Pats to end the 20-points streak and sneak out an ugly win.

I also think 49ers-Jaguars is a hard game to read since the Jaguars are not statistically strong but win, and the 49ers are super talented but have lost 3 in a row. It’s also an early body clock game across the country. My favorite pick in this game is the under 45.5.

I don’t believe in Cleveland, so I took Baltimore to win by a full touchdown. We’ll see what happens as division games are weird. Same reason I ultimately decided to take the Giants to cover 17.5 points in Dallas. I know it looks bleak, but the Cowboys almost lost straight up to Houston as a 17-point favorite last year. They already lost as a 13-point favorite to Arizona this year. I hate big spreads like this.

Packers are a perfect opponent for Pittsburgh at home. Shit offense (first half under looks great) and not a scary offense. I’m sure it’ll be a nail-biter and maybe even go to overtime.

Texans-Bengals could be interesting but I think C.J. Stroud comes back to Earth a bit from last week. But would be something if Tee Higgins (out) and Ja’Marr Chase (questionable) both missed the game. Huge opportunity for Houston to get a H2H tie-breaker and move ahead of the Bengals in the AFC.

Lions-Chargers is our saving grace of the late afternoon. Should be back to a normal Chargers game, which means Justin Herbert with the ball in a one-score game in the 4th quarter. I also think Seahawks-Commanders has potential to be a tight finish with decent offensive numbers.

I already have to write 2 articles on the prime-time games early in the week, so by Friday night, I’m ready to just get them over with. But I think the Jets use their superior defense to win that stinker, and the Bills should bounce back and win against Denver, which I still think is an underwhelming team.

At least I’ll probably be done early on Sunday night with this slate.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 9

November 6, 2023 ~ Scott ~ 12 Comments

It says a lot about this NFL season when Sunday’s best drama came from the games where Joshua Dobbs, Taylor Heinicke, Baker Mayfield, and C.J. Stroud were dueling in the fourth quarter and not from any of the “big games” Week 9 featured.

The main events were far from classics, and only Cowboys-Eagles, a division game, had a dramatic finish as both teams tried to hand the game over to their bitter rival before the Eagles won 28-23. It was also the only big game where the loser broke 20 points as Miami flopped 21-14 in Germany to the Chiefs, the Seahawks were blown out 37-3 in Baltimore, and the Bills were always playing from behind in Cincinnati in a 24-18 final that didn’t feel that close.

It was a long day, and I mean that literally with the clock change dragging things out an extra hour to the point where I fell asleep during the middle of the late afternoon slate. Not that I needed to see the no-show performances from the Panthers and Giants.

There were 8 games with a comeback opportunity this week, and I expect that number to rise on Monday night with some classic Chargering to end Week 9. But a classic week it was not.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Dolphins vs. Chiefs: Tyreek Hill Delivers Belated Touchdown Gift to Kansas City

Not much can get me out of bed at 9:30 AM, but I wanted to watch this one as it had the potential to be an instant classic and have a huge impact on shaping the narrative for the second half of this 2023 NFL season. Everything from the award races to the Super Bowl odds and No. 1 seed in the AFC was up for grabs here.

Beyond that, it’s just a good game on paper where you had to question if the No. 1 Miami offense can actually score on a top defense and beat a good team. You questioned if the Kansas City offense could still win a shootout with the limitations at wide receiver and how bad they looked in last week’s 24-9 loss in Denver.

In the end, all we really learned is that Miami is a paper tiger, Tyreek Hill killed his chances of having an MVP case this season, and the Chiefs have even more question marks on offense than previously thought.

For a big game, this was a huge disappointment to watch. The game started great for about 4 minutes with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs looking sharp on an opening touchdown drive, then Jaylen Waddle got the Dolphins going with a 15-yard catch. This was going to be great.

But then on the second play from scrimmage for Miami, Waddle was clipped on a running play and left the game with a knee injury. He would later return, but he never felt like a big part of the game plan after that.

For the next several drives, these offenses could not solve these defenses, and they were repeatedly stuck in 3rd-and-long situations. The Chiefs were also getting stuck in bad field position as Mecole Hardman has no conscience in fielding punts inside his own 10.

But the Chiefs eventually broke the scoring slump with a great 95-yard touchdown drive that consumed 8:28. Down 14-0, the Dolphins had a chance to get a double score as they were getting the ball first in the third quarter. But Miami started playing the clock too much in not wanting to give Mahomes the ball back, and they even tried to throw a screen to Hill with under 50 seconds left in the half. More than 35 yards away from the end zone and wanting to make a huge impact against his former team, Hill tried to do too much, and the Chiefs swarmed him, knocking out the ball for a huge fumble that was picked up, then wisely lateraled to another Chief for a 59-yard return touchdown to give the Chiefs a shocking 21-0 lead.

And you didn’t think you’d ever see Tyreek Hill score another touchdown for the Chiefs.

At halftime, the Kansas City defense looked fantastic, and while it was not a dominant half for the offense, Mahomes was on pace for almost 300 yards and 4 touchdowns despite barely getting Travis Kelce involved. Everything was coming up Chiefs as Miami looked like it was a fraud that could only beat the worst teams in the league.

But in the third quarter, Tua Tagovailoa finally hit a big pass for 31 yards to Cedrick Wilson Jr. for Miami’s first touchdown of the game. Bradley Chubb forced Mahomes into a bad strip-sack to give Miami a short field, then Chris Jones was called for a ridiculous penalty that cost the Chiefs 4 more points as it was going to bring up a 4th-and-10. Instead, Raheem Mostert ran for a 13-yard touchdown, and we had a 21-14 game going into the final quarter.

From there, some of the baffling play calls for the Chiefs came to the forefront. I’m not sure how Andy Reid can justify a run on 2nd-and-10 with La’Mical Perine (not even Samaje) for 1 yard when Miami clearly had the momentum. Mahomes threw a deep ball on 3rd-and-9 to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and the fact that he couldn’t draw a DPI flag or make the catch there sums up why this wideout situation is a big problem.

But with the Dolphins taking their sweet time to drive to the Kansas City 38, the defense stood tall for the Chiefs again. They forced back-to-back negative plays, including an 11-yard sack of Tua to bring up a 3rd-and-26 that was incomplete. Hardman again acted the fool and fielded the punt at his own 3, but the Chiefs were only going to need a couple of first downs to run out the final 4:10 on the clock, shockingly ending this one at 21-14.

But with a 3rd-and-1, the Chiefs tried a play-action pass with Mahomes having to eat the ball under pressure and throw an incompletion. This team doesn’t believe in the quarterback sneak anymore because Mahomes had a freak injury (dislocated kneecap) on it in Denver in 2019, so they purposely deprive themselves of one of the most successful plays in NFL history. They don’t even coach up a backup to do it well as we’ve seen this team try to do the Brotherly Shove with Noah Gray under center from a field goal formation. It’s ridiculous.

They didn’t need a quarterback sneak though. They could have just run Isiah Pacheco on 3rd-and-1 as that guy takes every carry like its his last day on Earth. But nope, the Chiefs screwed it up, and at this point, I thought they deserved to lose the game with this chickenshit play calling in the 2nd half.

Miami was 75 yards and a 2-point conversion away from potentially taking a 22-21 lead. Mostert was bottled up most of the game, but his runs of 25 and 19 yards quickly moved this to the Kansas City 31. That’s where Tua all but sank his MVP chances this year with 3 straight incompletions, including a woeful throw on 3rd down that had to be a miscommunication with the receiver (Wilson).

On 4th-and-ballgame, this game got the stinker ending it was building up to all morning. A bad snap got away from Tua and he just ate the ball to end the game. He didn’t even get a chance to throw a pass or for the Kansas City defense to do anything to stop him. Just another error at the worst moment.

Neither quarterback passed for 200 yards, which is absurd when Mahomes had 147 yards at halftime, and Tagovailoa had -1450 odds at FanDuel to throw for 200 in this game. Noah Gray led the Chiefs with 34 receiving yards, which was 20 more yards than Kelce. Hill finished with 8 catches for only 62 yards, but it’s the fumble that he’ll be remembered for in this game. The offenses were a combined 6-for-22 on third down.

The good news is the Kansas City defense is for real (for now). The bad news is the offense is in a funk and not doing much to help itself out of it.

In Mahomes’ first 101 starts, the only game where the Chiefs and their opponent both had under 300 yards of offense was the 2019 Denver game where he dislocated his kneecap and left early in the 2nd quarter, so that doesn’t really count.
But in the last 2 weeks in Denver and here in Germany, the Chiefs and their opponent have not topped 300 yards of offense. From 0 games in 101 starts to 2 in a row. Crazy stuff.
The Chiefs had 174 net passing yards and the Dolphins had 175 net passing yards. It is the first Kansas City game where the Chiefs and their opponent did not exceed 175 net passing yards since the 30-0 win over the Texans in the 2015 AFC wild card round.

This is not normal for Kansas City. Having said that, I’d still rather be in their shoes than Miami’s. Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, but three times is a pattern. The Dolphins looked outclassed against the Bills, Eagles, and now Chiefs. No one really cares what you do against the Panthers and Giants. Miami was underwhelming again in this game, and I’m not sure what the solution is going forward. Hope De’Von Achane can break 50-yard runs at the highest rate in history after he returns from injury?

I’d say more about the Chiefs, but I’ve been up over 20 hours cause of this game, I’m still mad about how weak it was offensively, and I’m going to bed. We’ll figure it out over the bye week, but the offense has to step up soon.

Cowboys at Eagles: Dallas, Always a Bridesmaid

While the final quarter was a litany of mistakes by both teams, this division battle was the best main event of Week 9. If we’re calling it down the line, this was the best high-scoring game between contenders since the Lions and Seahawks went to overtime (37-31) way back in Week 2. Yeah, things have been rough this year.

But Dak Prescott played well, throwing another 3 touchdowns to have 14 scores in 4 games against Nick Sirianni’s team since 2021. This was only the second time that Dak and Jalen Hurts have met, but it was worth the wait with Hurts passing for another 200 yards, 2 scores, and running in another touchdown on his trademark play.

But you can kind of see the advantage of division games in that Dallas was not outmatched that significantly in this game even as a 3-point road favorite in a hostile environment. The Cowboys came back to take a 17-14 halftime lead into the locker room before the Eagles scored two touchdowns in the third quarter to lead 28-17.

But the fourth quarter really was a mess for both teams:

Dallas went for it on 4th-and-1 at the Philadelphia 1 with 10:10 left. The young tight end did not run his target deep enough and came up just inches short of the end zone, turning the ball over on downs. I think there was an argument to kick a field goal in a 28-17 game, but there’s also a good argument to go for it with the field position advantage, but that sequence was a big, missed opportunity for Dallas.

The Eagles went 3-and-out, and sure enough, Dallas only had to go 52 yards for a quick touchdown. But on the 2-point conversion, Dak just stepped out of bounds short of the end zone, so that was another case of inches costing the Cowboys more points as there is a huge difference between 28-25 and 28-23.

After another Philadelphia 3-and-out, a Dallas drive short-circuited after back-to-back sacks, and Prescott threw incomplete to a draped receiver on 4th-and-8 who wasn’t CeeDee Lamb, which I couldn’t agree with. But instead of the Eagles running out the final 1:17, they nearly fumbled the game away on a 3rd-down run when D’Andre Swift collied with A.J. Brown in motion, and the Eagles were lucky to recover that fumble.

The Cowboys had 46 seconds to drive 86 yards without a timeout. Immediately, they got a 36-yard defensive pass interference penalty after a horrible play by corner James Bradberry, who almost seemed to fake an injury in embarrassment for his coverage lapse. A roughing the passer penalty was called on the next play, and while it was weak contact, it was definitely late after the play. Just like that, the Cowboys covered 61 yards in 14 seconds, and this was looking realistic, especially after the other corner, Darius Slay, pulled up with an injury.

Lamb caught a pass for 11 yards and got out of bounds, then the Eagles were flagged for 5 more yards for encroachment. The Cowboys were 6 yards away from pulling this off, but that’s when it all went to hell, and shades of past playoff failures against the 49ers. First, Prescott definitely looked like he audibled to a quarterback draw, which would have been another ill-fated decision as he is not as fast as he thinks he is, and the Cowboys were out of timeouts. But a false start shut that down.

Then Prescott took a huge 11-yard sack, the Eagles’ 5th of the day, and he rushed a throw into the end zone instead of spiking a pass and maybe having 2 more shots at the end zone. Move it back 5 yards for a false start, and the Eagles were down to 1 play and 27 yards away. They probably could have tried a short throw and run out of bounds to get 6-to-8 yards closer since the Eagles gave up that whole short area of the field. But they went for the deep throw and it wasn’t deep enough as Lamb caught it at the 4-yard line and fumbled as the defense was right there and never going to allow him to score.

We’ve seen worse Dallas performances before, but it was still disappointing in how well things were going to start that last drive. The Cowboys also held the Eagles without a 30-yard play, they ended Brown’s record streak of 125-yard games by holding him to 66 receiving yards, and they held the Eagles to 3.3 yards per carry.

But it still was not enough to get a win in Philadelphia, which has a big lead in the NFC East now. It was expected the Eagles would win this first matchup at home, but the Cowboys need to build on the positives and hope the Eagles slip up with their tough upcoming schedule.

Bills at Bengals: Buffalo Has a Cincinnati Problem

If you had to pick a team in the AFC that you could trust to go into Kansas City or Baltimore in January and win big games, you should pick Buffalo above most. Some will say Cincinnati, but Buffalo has a track record on par with them, if not better when it comes to beating Lamar Jackson and going drive for drive with Mahomes.

However, we have seen about 8.5 quarters of Bills vs. Bengals going back to last January, and it looks like the Bills have a big problem with this Cincinnati team. The pass rush can’t seem to get to Joe Burrow with his quick release, his receivers are too good for this secondary to hold up, and the Bills put everything on Josh Allen, who tends to make mistakes, especially against a master game planner like Cincinnati defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo.

The Bengals (5-3) have won 4 in a row and the whole AFC North would be in the playoffs if they started today. This loss drops Buffalo (5-4) to No. 9 in the AFC, and they have some issues with the inconsistent offense and defensive injuries.

I’m sensing a bad pattern for Buffalo in these big AFC matchups where Allen is expected to carry the load where the Chiefs and Bengals do more to help their quarterbacks with a running game and other receivers. After Stefon Diggs and a rookie tight end (Dalton Kincaid), Allen is struggling to get Gabriel Davis producing as a No. 2 receiver this year, and they rarely ever run the ball with the running backs in games like this.

This puts a lot of pressure on Allen as this Buffalo defense tends to fold against the better passing offenses in this league. They can make the Jets look bad twice a year, but they usually don’t make an impact on the contenders.

Each team only had 9 possessions in this game, and Buffalo wasted 2 of them with turnovers, and they botched the end of the first half when an intentional grounding penalty knocked the Bills out of long field goal range. You could have argued there was a missed tripping penalty on the Bengals before that grounding call, but it was a weak night for the officials too.

But the biggest mistake was by that rookie tight end as Kincaid fumbled in the red zone in the fourth quarter when it was a 21-10 game. The Bengals turned that into a 5:10 field goal drive to go up 24-10, the Bills scored a touchdown with a 2-point conversion, but they wasted a timeout with one of the worst challenges you’ll ever see. Don’t challenge something so inconclusive that won’t even give you a first down when time is your main enemy in a 2-score game. Don’t challenge something that only brings up 2nd-and-10 with the clock stopped. Make up for it, as the Bills did in 2 snaps, but by the time the Bengals got the ball, they only had 3:32 to burn through with Buffalo down to 1 timeout.

A surprise pass down the field led to a 32-yard gain right way, then the Bengals kept it on the ground with Joe Mixon and he beat Von Miller to the marker on a 3rd-down run to end the game. The Bills trailed by double digits on each of their last 5 drives, which isn’t that different from the playoff loss last year where they trailed by double digits on 7 of their final 8 drives.

Buffalo seems to bring out the best in this Cincinnati team as Burrow again had a great game with 348 yards as Tee Higgins (110 yards) took over on a quiet night for Ja’Marr Chase (4 catches for 41 yards). The Bengals didn’t run it well this time (17 carries for 50 yards) but they at least put the game away on the ground.

It may not sound like much at 24-18, but the Bengals led wire to wire and controlled the game from the start. This is what they do in big games in Cincinnati. They score 19-to-27 points and they allow 16-to-27 points almost every time, and they get the big turnovers in clutch moments like they did again with the Kincaid forced fumble.

No playoff team has dropped more than 27 points on the Bengals since the 2021 Chiefs in the first meeting of that rivalry, a 34-31 Cincinnati comeback win. That’s 13 straight games holding playoff teams to 27 points. If the best teams the Bengals have played this year make the playoffs again, that could be an 18-game streak when you include the 2023 Browns, Ravens, Seahawks, 49ers, and Bills.

The Bengals play the Chiefs very well, but they look to be even better against Buffalo, and this loss could be a big one now that Bills fall back to second in the AFC East and lose the head-to-head tie-breaker with the Bengals for a wild card spot.

Seahawks at Ravens: Who Is Writing These Baltimore Game Scripts?

Apparently, Lamar Jackson is 18-3 SU against NFC teams, but the spread record (12-8-1 ATS) was nowhere near that strong. Ask anyone who got burned last week by the Ravens (-9.5) in Arizona when they struggled to move the ball and couldn’t hold a big lead late to easily cover the spread.

That Arizona game is going to look even fishier now that it came between two home games where the Ravens absolutely blasted the Lions (38-6) and Seahawks (37-3), who are supposed to be considerably better than 1-win Arizona.

The Ravens either play these absurdly lopsided games, or they puke all over themselves in losses to the Colts and Steelers. It’s frustrating, but when this team is clicking like it was on Sunday, they look like the team I picked to win the Super Bowl before the season started.

This game was a punt fest in the first quarter, but after rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba bobbled a third-down pass on the opening drive, that was arguably the beginning of the end for Seattle. Gus Edwards scored 2 more touchdowns after a trio last week, Geno Smith turned it over twice in the 2nd quarter, and the Ravens led 17-3 at halftime. Baltimore kept it going with field goals, then blew the game open with Keaton Mitchell breaking a 40-yard touchdown run. I never even heard of him before Sunday. Mitchell finished with 138 yards on 9 carries, further proving how silly it is to spend big resources to find running backs in this game.

Mitchell’s big run was more points than the Seahawks mustered all day as Smith was held to 157 yards passing, and Kenneth Walker had 9 carries for 16 yards in a 37-3 blowout loss.

Even Tyler Huntley came into the game in the fourth quarter and led his team to more points than Geno did, throwing a touchdown pass to Odell Beckham Jr. to keep him happy.

The Ravens, my preseason Super Bowl pick, are a hard team to watch when most of their games are blowouts or sloppy performances. But if they can win at home like this the next two weeks against the Browns and Bengals, they will be in full control of the tough AFC North, and maybe the best team in the whole AFC if the offense can keep this balance.

Look for Jackson to overtake Tagovailoa in the MVP race and be right there with Mahomes and Hurts.

Buccaneers at Texans: The Unexpected Shootout of the Year

On a list of unexpected shootouts in NFL history, this one would have to rank somewhere between Baker Mayfield vs. Derek Carr (2018 Browns vs. Raiders) and Matthew Stafford vs. Brady Quinn (2009 Lions vs. Browns).

Mayfield has been on the losing end of several of these before. Mayfield is the only quarterback in NFL history to lose multiple games when his team scored at least 42 points, and that happened to him 3 times in Cleveland.

Mayfield did his job in this one with Tampa Bay holding multiple 10-point leads, and Mayfield led multiple touchdown drives in the fourth quarter alone, including a great one with 46 seconds left that included a key 4th-down scramble, and he found Cade Otton for a 14-yard touchdown.

But this win was earned by C.J. Stroud, who may have just had the best rookie quarterback performance ever, and who definitely put the team on his back and should run away with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.

With an irrelevant running game, a Swiss cheese defense, and an injured kicker, Stroud led the Texans back with 470 passing yards, 5 touchdown passes, and no turnovers. The 470 yards are a rookie record, replacing the 433 yards that Andrew Luck had in 2012 against Miami. The only other true rookie to pass for over 400 yards with 5 touchdowns was Stafford against the aforementioned 2009 Browns, but Stroud is the only one to do it without throwing any interceptions.

Let’s leave rookies out of it. Stroud joins Dan Fouts as the only quarterbacks to ever throw for 400 yards, 5 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and lead a 4QC/GWD. Fouts did it against Joe Montana’s 49ers in a classic duel.

Houston’s injured kicker in the second half led to more adversity as the Texans ended up trying four 2-point conversions. They also let running back Dare Ogunbowale kick a 29-yard field goal to take a 33-30 lead with 8:45 left, and the back nailed it.

But that wasn’t going to hold up as the game winner after Mayfield’s last drive put Houston behind 37-33 with 46 seconds left. The Texans had 2 timeouts left, but what ensued is one of the best game-winning touchdown drives you’ll ever see.

Stroud used both timeouts after 2 completions for 20 yards, then spiked the ball after a 14-yard completion. But the real dagger throw was a 26-yard pass to Tank Dell near the sideline where he got out of bounds with 10 seconds left. The next throw needed to go into the end zone, and Stroud delivered right back to Dell for the 15-yard touchdown strike with 6 seconds left.

The Buccaneers only had time left to fumble the lateral-filled play. Stroud finished with 8 completions of 20-plus yards in a monster performance for a quarterback of any experience level, let alone a rookie.

I’ve been lukewarm on Stroud’s rookie season from a historic perspective, but a game like this moves him up significantly.

Vikings at Falcons: The Joshua Dobbs Game

The other unexpectedly amazing finish on Sunday came in Atlanta. We knew the Falcons allowed Will Levis to have a record-tying debut last week in Tennessee, and we know the Falcons are capable of blowing any game in any situation.

But this was something special. Jaren Hall was starting for Minnesota after Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles, and this rookie also looked sharp early in the game with 78 yards passing in the first quarter. He just missed on a touchdown throw to T.J. Hockenson, but Hall was concussed on a scramble, putting Joshua Dobbs into the game.

Dobbs was just acquired via trade from Arizona this week, and he reportedly had no practice snaps and was only beginning to learn the offense as he was not expected to play in this game. But he had to play, it started really rough with a safety and strip-sack, but once he calmed down and remember it’s just football, he looked like the quarterback we have seen in Arizona this year with the ability to scramble and make things happen.

Dobbs led all runners in the game with 66 yards and a touchdown. He also passed for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns, which is pretty solid production for someone who just joined the team. He also was 1-9 as a starter in his career and 0-5 in game-winning drive opportunities.

But this game went back and forth, and it looked like Atlanta had the upper hand after Taylor Heinicke, starting for the benched Desmond Ridder, led a 79-yard touchdown drive to put the Falcons up 28-24 with 2:08 left.

You don’t expect much from Dobbs here, but again, these are the Falcons. This is what they do. Like how the 2022 Raiders made Baker Mayfield a legend for a night with a 98-yard drive to win the game for the Rams just 48 hours after he joined the team, Dobbs pulled off his own miracle for his first game-winning drive in the NFL.

It came down to a 4th-and-7, and this scramble by Dobbs is one of the best plays you’ll see all season:

JOSH DOBBS WITH AN INSANE SCRAMBLE ON FOURTH DOWN
pic.twitter.com/7n3RRl2B1A
— Arye Pulli (@AryePulli) November 5, 2023

Three plays later, Dobbs threw a 6-yard touchdown to Brandon Powell to win the game. The Falcons had 22 seconds and 2 timeouts left, but they couldn’t get into range for Younghoe Koo for a field goal in the 31-28 loss. It was the first blown 4th-quarter lead of the season for the Falcons, but what a way to do it, and against a team you are directly competing with for a wild card spot.

At least Dobbs, who has the highest QBR in Week 9 (86.6), can say he has his moment in the NFL, and he could even end up starting a playoff game as the Vikings are currently the No. 7 seed.

Bears at Saints: Bagent Is Definitely Chicago Material

The Bears actually played a solid game in New Orleans with tight end Cole Kmet showing up big early with 2 touchdown catches, including an incredible grab on a risky pass from rookie Tyson Bagent.

The game was tied at 17 going into the fourth quarter, and that’s when the Saints broke the tie with a touchdown drive that mixed some Derek Carr passes with contributions from Taysom Hill, who technically threw the game-winning 3-yard touchdown pass to tight end Juwan Johnson. With Carr and Hill splitting time on the drive, I ended up giving both credit for the game-winning drive, which is technically the first of Hill’s unique career.

At this point of the game, Bagent had over 200 passing yards, 2 touchdown passes, and 70 rushing yards – numbers that Justin Fields put up in a game just once in his career. But Bagent showed he is perfect for Chicago after he immediately answered the Saints’ drive with a bad interception. The Saints botched the moment by hurrying Carr on a quarterback sneak, which is never a good idea, and he was short and turned it over on downs.

The rest of this game was a mess. Bagent threw another pick in a 24-17 game, the teams traded 3-and-outs, then the Saints missed a 47-yard field goal with 2:26 left as this new kicker (Blake Grupe) has choker written all over him.

Fortunately, the defense forced Bagent into a strip-sack for his 4th turnover to finally wrap this one up to move to 5-4. The Bears are now 1-13 at comeback opportunities under coach Matt Eberflus. It’s uncanny how many of those game-losing drives have ended with the quarterback turning the ball over, but this is why Chicago has the reputation it does.

Rams at Packers: McVay Doesn’t Care for Lambeau

The Rams haven’t won in Green Bay since 2006. Throw in a Matthew Stafford thumb injury that led to Brett Rypien starting, and this felt like a good day for the Packers to end their losing slide. Hell, they even scored a touchdown in the first half, but it would be the only points they had early.

Despite the 20-3 final, this was a 10-3 game going into the fourth quarter when the Rams were stopped on a 4th-and-2 run at midfield. The Rams got the ball right back too, but Rypien was intercepted, and that led to a field goal and 13-3 lead for the Packers. The Rams went 3-and-out, and the Packers put it away with a 72-yard touchdown drive with Jordan Love finding rookie tight end Luke Musgrave for a 20-yard touchdown.

It’s not the kind of win that’s going to change minds in Green Bay, but at least Love was 20-for-26 with no picks. At least we know Matt LaFleur can still beat the Bears and the Rams (at home).

Commanders at Patriots: Dead Last in the AFC

At least some things never change in New England. Somehow, this was called roughing the passer on Washington:

OH MY GOODNESS: How the hell is this a roughing the passer on the #Commanders

😳😳😳

WORST CALL OF ALL SEASON. HORRIFIC.
pic.twitter.com/y9Uk2mGihT
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) November 5, 2023

That led to a field goal to give the Patriots a 17-10 lead, which was already built on a short-field touchdown drive after recovering a fumble, and the Patriots intercepted Sam Howell in the end zone to end the first half.

But that’s where the typical New England things ended. The Patriots trailed 20-17 for the entire fourth quarter. It looked like Mac Jones had a completion out past the 40, but Washington challenged rookie Demario Douglas’ 22-yard catch, and it was reversed to an incompletion to kill the drive.

This is where the offense is these days. Relying on 6th-round rookies, the ghosts of Ezekiel Elliott, DeVante Parker, and JuJu Smith-Schuster, and they were even firing bombs to Jalen Reagor on third down on Sunday. The only thing surprising about Jalen Reagor in a Patriots uniform is that Bill didn’t draft him himself.

Later, it looked like Douglas was going to redeem himself with a big punt return to the New England 43, but the Patriots were offsides on the punt, giving the Commanders a fresh set of downs. Again, when do you see these mistakes on special teams from a Belichick-coached team? Happening a lot these days.

Jones and the offense eventually got the ball back with 2:07 left, but they were at their own 9. The drive reached the Washington 41, but that’s when Jones’ pass for JuJu went off the receiver’s hands and was caught for a game-ending interception. The throw was totally fine.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, getting significant playing time after seeing his role reduced last week, has a ball go straight through his hands leading to the game-losing INT

The Patriots’ shortcoming at WR were apparent right through the end of the game today. pic.twitter.com/OahIL3iAUO
— Alex Barth (@RealAlexBarth) November 5, 2023

While the quarterback position continues to fail the new Patriots, so does most other positions, especially the wide receivers. This team needs a multi-year rebuild, which sounds like the job of a young coach to me. Maybe one that will let a general manager do their job and the coach does their job of just coaching.

The Patriots (2-7) are dead last in the AFC.

Colts at Panthers: The Worst Day Yet for Carolina Fans

In hindsight, the Panthers holding C.J. Stroud and the Texans to 13 points last week for their first win feels like a miracle given what these teams did in Week 9. After Stroud had an incredible game against Tampa Bay, that raised the bar again for what Young, the No. 1 pick in the draft, needed to do against a Colts team that has been bleeding points this season.

The result was terrible as the Panthers scored 3 points halfway through the third quarter, and Young ended up throwing a pair of pick-sixes to Kenny Moore to lose 27-13 at home. The Panthers wasted a defensive effort that saw them hold the Colts to 3.5 yards per play. Indy’s streak of being the only team to score 20 points in every game this season likely ends if the Carolina offense did not give up 2 touchdowns, including that awful one right before halftime.

Even Adam Thielen was a non-factor this week with 5 catches for 29 yards. Young took 4 sacks and threw 3 interceptions. It was an embarrassing loss for coach Frank Reich, who was facing his former team with rookie coach Shane Steichen getting the decisive win.

The Colts (4-5) are still alive while the Panthers (1-7) have to play this Thursday night in Chicago in a game no one really wants to watch.

Giants at Raiders: Post-Nut Clarity in Vegas

Finally, a Week 9 game that played out almost to expectations. The Raiders got that post-firing of Josh McDaniels bump and played their best game of the season by finally scoring 30 points, all on offense with Aidan O’Connell leading three 60-yard touchdown drives to start the game.

Josh Jacobs lost out on a 100-yard rushing game with his last carry in the 30-6 blowout, but he scored twice. Davante Adams was still quiet (4-of-7 for 34 yards), but at least he caught more than 1 ball this week. The Raiders also kept O’Connell clean with no sacks and no turnovers, something Jimmy Garoppolo was unable to do in a game this season.

But it certainly helped to be playing the Giants, who lost Daniel Jones to potentially a torn ACL. Backup Tommy DeVito was sacked 6 times and picked twice in a big game for the defense.

We’ll see how interim coach Antonio Pierce fares against better opponents, but he at least was able to do things with this team that McDaniels had not in the first half of this season.

Cardinals at Browns: The 2000 Ravens Would Be Proud

We may never get confirmation from a whistleblower that the 2023 Cardinals tanked the season, but we have circumstantial evidence they are doing it:

Letting DeAndre Hopkins walk
Cutting Colt McCoy in late August
Bringing Joshua Dobbs in late in camp to be your Week 1 starter
Blowing a 28-7 lead at home in the third quarter to the Giants, one of the only teams that is garbage enough to finish with a worse record than this talent-less Arizona roster
Making Dallas your unfortunate patsy to prove you are trying to win
Slow roll Kyler Murray’s return to action from a torn ACL, which is typically a 9-month recovery that has gone about 10.5 months for him (and counting)
Trade Dobbs for peanuts to Minnesota at the trade deadline
Start rookie Clayton Tune, which sounds like the banjo kid from Deliverance, in a real game in Cleveland

That latest move led to a 27-0 loss that should have been predictable, yet it was still somehow worse than imagined. Clayton Tune finished 11-of-20 for 58 yards, 2 INTs, took 7 sacks for 41 yards, and he finished as Arizona’s leading rusher with 5 carries for 28 yards.

Tune is just the 5th quarterback since 1960 to take 7 sacks and throw for fewer than 60 yards on at least 20 pass attempts. Bobby Douglass did it twice for the Bears in 1969 and 1971. Dan Darragh did it for the 1968 Bills against the Raiders, and Bill Nelsen had such a game in 1965 for the Steelers against the Cardinals. Tune is the only one of the 5 to be shutout.

The Cardinals had 7 first downs, were 1-of-12 on third down, and they had 58 yards of total offense. It’s going to add to some incredible stats for the Cleveland defense in 2023, but it is hard to take this defense at face value given some of the opponents faced, including this gift from the Cardinals.

It reminds me of the 2000 season when the Ravens had those fantastic numbers on defense, and so did the Titans who were playing largely the same schedule in the old AFC Central. But those Ravens legitimized their run by doing it in the playoffs too, and the Browns will have to answer in those big games when they see Lamar Jackson and the Ravens again next week, and when Joe Burrow, who they have owned in the past, gets another shot with a healthier calf.

That’s to say nothing of a potential playoff run for this team, which now sits at 5-3. There hopefully won’t be any quarterbacks like Clayton Tune in the postseason. It was bad enough we had Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson in last year’s tournament.

Next week: The Week 10 schedule is legitimately horrific. Just look at the prime-time games for starters: Panthers-Bears on TNF, Jets-Raiders on SNF, and Broncos-Bills on MNF. If that’s not bad enough, there’s another Sunday 9:30 a.m. game with Colts-Patriots. You couldn’t find a worse island game schedule. It gets worse. The Chiefs, Eagles, Dolphins, and Rams are on a bye week. The big games are 49ers-Jaguars, Browns-Ravens, and I guess Texans-Bengals looks a lot more attractive than it did any other week this season.

Just save your money for Week 11.

NFL Week 9 Predictions: Main Events & Dark Matches Edition

November 4, 2023 ~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

The NFL’s Week 9 schedule is one of the most unique I’ve ever seen. There are three legitimately great games that would be the Game of the Week on their own, but they are taking place on one day in three different windows with Chiefs-Dolphins in Germany in the morning, Cowboys-Eagles for the late afternoon, and Bills-Bengals at night. Even Seahawks-Ravens is a solid highlight for the 1:00 window.

This is like getting a WrestleMania with 3 main events.

The bad news is the rest of the schedule looks like dark matches with jobbers, because what the hell is a Clayton Tune, and why do we maybe need to see him start for Arizona in Week 9? The Vikings are also planning to start rookie Jaren Hall after trading for Joshua Dobbs earlier this week, but if Baker Mayfield can figure out Sean McVay’s offense in 48 hours, why couldn’t Dobbs just give it a shot for Minnesota? He’s also facing Taylor Heinicke, who won’t have Drake London. It’s a mess, and we haven’t even talked about the Raiders firing their coach, GM, OC, replacing Jimmy Garoppolo with a rookie and they’re still a 1.5-point favorite because they’re playing the Giants.

Quarterback of the Rams on Sunday? Damned if I know right now.

For a week that could have also had the first game between rookies Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson and end on Monday night with Justin Herbert vs. Aaron Rodgers, it sure is a collection of shitty games that we’ll put up with as long as the great games turn out at least one instant classic.

This season needs it badly.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Midseason Review: Award Races – I look at the current odds for the 7 NFL awards, including MVP and Coach of the Year, and make my pick for how the rest of the season will play out. It’s a lot of Dolphins and Chiefs, which is another reason why this game on Sunday morning is so huge.

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 9 – Plenty of good ones in here, including a couple of parlays for KC-MIA, and a Happy Josh McDaniels Firing Week parlay. Hopefully something will hit.

NFL Week 9 Predictions

I had the Steelers winning 20-14, so 20-16 will do even if the ending probably took more time off my life. This team is something else, the only team in the Super Bowl era to get outgained in each of its first 8 games and still have a winning record (5-3). You say they won’t sustain that, and that’s probably true if they play exactly like this, but I believe in analyzing the schedule each summer, and that always made me believe this team was going to finish with a winning record this year.

Let me give some final thoughts on the big games before we deal with the stinkers.

Dolphins-Chiefs: Love the timing of this matchup. Chiefs are losing luster after their worst performance in 2 years in Denver last week. It was largely about the turnovers as the defense was fine. But this is a huge test for that defense with the statistical best offense in the league, maybe the fastest offense of all time, and you know Tyreek Hill is going to want to have a memorable game. But can the Dolphins score on a top team and beat them after failing so miserably against Buffalo and Philly? Is the Kansas City defense really this good, and can the offense still win a shootout with a team like this given the lack of WR firepower?

So many questions to answer here, but I’m still backing the Chiefs. I think the defense is much better than Miami’s, and that should provide an edge. We can talk about Mahomes and turnovers, but Tua has been picked in 6-of-8 games too. I think Mahomes puts the weird flu game behind him and has a big game. I’ll take the Chiefs and hopefully the over as this season needs a classic shootout with top teams invovled.

Final: Chiefs 30, Dolphins 24

Cowboys-Eagles: This is only the 2nd time we’re going to see a game with Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts because of injuries and playoff rest situations since 2020. They both threw for over 300 yards and 4 TDs last week. Prescott has 11 touchdown passes against the Eagles in his last 3 games (all when Nick Sirianni was the head coach). While I picked the Eagles to repeat as division champs and always had them winning the first matchup at home here, the more this week moves towards Sunday and the more I feel like picking Dallas. I just think the narrative of “Dallas can’t win a big game, the coaching staff will blow it” is something you have to almost throw out when it comes to division games, or how else do you explain Sam Howell turning into Steve Young when he played Philly this year and dropped 31 points each time?

I could see a game where Dak and CeeDee Lamb show up big, A.J. Brown’s 125-yard streak ends, Micah Parsons has a big game for the defense, they stop the Brotherly Shove in a big spot, the regular Philadelphia running game is nothing special, and Dallas intercepts Hurts and holds the Eagles under 24 points to get an impressive win. I could easily see that playing out, but I am in fact going to stick with a bland “Dallas can’t do it” pick until we see them do something different.

Final: Eagles 24, Cowboys 20

Bills-Bengals: This was the game we wanted to see so badly last year in Week 17, then the Damar Hamlin incident changed everything. The Bills looked mentally wiped out by the time they met in the playoffs, and that game was over in a hurry after the Bills trailed by 10+ points on their final 7 possessions. And remember, they only had 8 drives that day.

A chance for some revenge here in the first official Joe Burrow vs. Josh Allen game in the regular season, but as much as I’d like to say Buffalo is the better team, you never know which version will show up. Is it the Bills who slaughter Miami 48-20, or is it the team that couldn’t really score until the 4Q against the Jaguars and Giants? Is it the Allen that turns it over 4 times against the Jets? The defense also has sustained a lot of injuries that the Bengals, who seem to have found their groove offensively, can exploit at home.

I also just expect the Bengals to give Burrow more help in a game like this (running game, defense) than the Bills will give Allen. But we’ll see how it goes and recap it Sunday night after what is hopefully the best SNF game this season as they have been duds.

Final: Bengals 23, Bills 20

As for the other games…

Yeah, after that Jordan Love debacle last week, the Stafford injury situation, and Cooper Kupp killing me the last 2 games, I will be avoiding this game like the plague.

I like the under more than anything in TB-HOU as I don’t believe in either offense.

I’ll take the Patriots at home, especially at -2.5, because I think Sam Howell is a perfect quarterback for Belichick to exploit with mistakes (sacks and picks). Mac Jones might feel comfortable after Washington, a bad defense to begin with, traded away Montez Sweat and Chase Young this week.

Saints need to roll the Bears with Tyson Bagent. Period.

I don’t know what to expect from Vikings-Falcons, but I kinda like the Jordan Addison and Jaren Hall props after what the Falcons did last week against Will Levis and DeAndre Hopkins. But I wouldn’t bet much on this game.

Browns might get Deshaun Watson back, but who cares at this point? If Arizona starts Clayton Tune, Cleveland should hold this offense to single digits.

I’m not as excited about SEA-BAL as other people, but I think it has a chance to be a 23-20 type of game. Both coaches obviously end up in a ton of tight games. I just don’t think either offense is that enjoyable to watch yet this season. Their games are often sloppy or one sided.

Already linked above why I think Panthers win another one at home for Frank Reich against his former employer.

Raiders could still easily blow this game, but I love the idea of the offense having its best game of the year (20+ points, Davante & Jacobs going off) after the big changes this week.

Finally, on Monday night I think we get the Chargering special. It was way too easy for them last week when they were up 17+ the entire 2nd half on the Bears. The Jets have been making crazy comebacks all year, and I could see Herbert getting tricked into a bad interception late by a defense that has already picked off Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts a combined 8 times this year. I think the Jets steal a 20-17 type of game to end the week.

But more than anything, I hope at least one of these big games lives up to the potential. This season has sucked to this point, but the big games on the schedule are coming now.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 8

October 30, 2023 ~ Scott ~ 13 Comments

I’m not sure what was crazier in the NFL in Week 8. The Broncos finally beat the Chiefs, the Carolina Panthers finally won a game after trailing in the fourth quarter, or Sam Howell only took one sack against the Eagles. Several years have passed since two of those things happened, and Howell’s life has been shortened by several years this season.

Even the Chargers played a game where they led by at least 17 points (3 possessions) for the entire second half. That hadn’t happened in the last 60 games for them.

But Sunday was a streak-killing one around the league.

Just not for the 49ers, who got a 17th-straight game with a touchdown from Christian McCaffrey, their 3rd-straight loss, and Kyle Shanahan fell to 0-37 when trailing by at least 8 points in the fourth quarter. Business as usual there.

But we have a lot of games to cover, and there were 9 games with a comeback opportunity this week. We also had a pair of double-digit deficit comebacks after having none in Week 7 as the Colts (17-7) and Commanders (14-3) blew early leads.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Broncos: Things to Do in Denver When Your Streaks Are Dead

It was bound to happen eventually. The Chiefs would have a bad game, and their streak would be over. Which streak? Well, how about all of them?

16 straight wins vs. Denver Broncos (longest active streak vs. one team) – OVER
40 straight games without losing by more than 4 points (NFL record) – OVER
40 straight games without losing by more than 7 points (4th-longest streak ever) – OVER
40 straight games with a fourth-quarter/overtime lead or tie – OVER
16 straight road division game wins (longest team streak in NFL history) – OVER
Patrick Mahomes – 35 straight games with a touchdown pass, including playoffs (longest active streak) – OVER
Patrick Mahomes – 16 straight road division game wins as starter (2nd-longest streak for starting quarterback behind only Joe Montana, 20) – OVER

Mahomes was also reportedly 25-0 against teams who were 2 games below .500 before Sunday, though I’ve never put much stock in anything based on record at the time.

But the reason these streaks largely go back 40 games is that was the 27-3 loss to the Titans in 2021, the only game where Mahomes and the Chiefs lost wire-to-wire (never led). Well, Sunday in Denver was the second wire-to-wire loss for Mahomes and the Chiefs. It is only the 4th loss by more than 8 points for him.

Was it the weather? They have played in colder, and the snow didn’t materialize during the game. Was it Mahomes having the flu this weekend? He didn’t seem to be lacking in energy as he ran for his life throughout the game, which was a bigger issue itself.

It really is as simple as you can’t turn the ball over 5 times on the road and expect to win in this league. But in a weird twist, I came away from this game with more confidence in the Kansas City defense and less confidence in the offense going forward.

If you look at Denver’s offense in this game, while Russell Wilson passed for 3 touchdowns, he only had 114 yards on 19 attempts, and it gets worse when you consider he took 6 sacks for 27 yards and lost a fumble. That means the Chiefs held Wilson under 100 net passing yards twice in 17 days.

While Denver scored 24 points, those drives came on short fields where the offense only gained 39, 50, 10, and 10 yards. That’s 24 points on 109 yards. That’s ridiculous. Denver started at the 50 or better on every scoring drive.

This is why the turnovers hurt so much, and the Kansas City defense did its best to mitigate them:

Turnover No. 1 was a bad one as Marquez Valdes-Scantling fumbled a completion in Denver territory, which led to a 50-yard touchdown drive for the Broncos.
Turnover No. 2 was a Mahomes interception that ended up not mattering since the Chiefs stopped Wilson on a 4th-down run, and the Chiefs were 5 yards ahead of where they were before the pick 90 seconds later.
Turnover No. 3 was a strip-sack of Mahomes in the red zone, which was big, but Wilson also lost a fumble on a sack, and the Chiefs got a 56-yard field goal out of it, so it may have been a 4-point mistake at most.
The Chiefs blocked a 38-yard field goal to start the third quarter, which was another mini-turnover for Denver.
Turnover No. 4 was the killer as Mecole Hardman muffed a punt when the Chiefs were going to get the ball back in a 14-9 game with 11:15 to play. Instead, the Broncos had a 10-yard touchdown drive to go up 21-9.
Turnover No. 5 was moot when you’re throwing up a prayer on 4th-and-27, don’t get the flag for contact on the receiver, and by catching the ball, Jusitn Simmons cost his team 6 yards in field position.

I know a particular group of people, likely from New England area codes, are going to say I took the blame off Mahomes. I didn’t. It was one of the worst games of his career. But any rational analysis will tell you his turnovers were not as impactful as the fumbles by his skill players, especially that muffed punt by a problematic player they shouldn’t have brought back.

For as bad as this was, I still think the Chiefs can pull this one out if they had the ball in a 14-9 game. The muff killed them and changed how the rest of the game would be played.

I also think the Chiefs erroneously fell in love with throws short of the sticks early in this game and paid for it as Denver was not biting this week. A minus-4 yard completion to Isiah Pacheco blew up the opening drive for a 3-and-out. A minus-1 yard completion to Rashee Rice, who later had a bad drop at midfield, on a 3rd-and-2 killed another drive at the goal line, leading to a field goal instead of a touchdown. Jerick McKinnon was also stuffed for a 3-yard loss on a 3rd-and-2 run in the red zone that led to another field goal.

The Chiefs didn’t attack enough this week, and by the time the game got into a 2-touchdown deficit, Mahomes was under pressure a lot. I also think going for the deep touchdown shot on 4th-and-2 at the Denver 26 with 7:40 left was highly questionable. The fact the target was Skyy Moore makes it downright laughable as he is the player you call plays for if you want the offense to die.

The Kansas City offense played very poorly in this one and Denver was good enough to take advantage. But unlike the other 3 blowout losses for the Chiefs (Super Bowl 55, 2021 Bills, 2021 Titans), this one was not a bad defensive performance too. I’m learning to trust that unit.

The problem coming into this season was who do they have to catch the ball after Kelce. Through 8 games, the answer looks like not much. With the trade deadline this Tuesday, they may need to do something drastic, because the way this season is going, it’s ending early in January with Mahomes trying to make a throw on 4th & 25+.

In a way, this could be a well-timed loss for the Chiefs. You don’t want everyone kissing your ass week after week, and sometimes it takes a good ass kicking to fix what’s wrong and improve. The way the Chiefs played to get to 6-1 was not good enough for a championship run. They need to be better than that, and we’ll see if the trip to Germany and a high-profile opponent like Miami can bring out their best, or if it only further shows they have taken a step back this year to the pack.

Time to start some new streaks, because they left them all behind in Denver in one of the ugliest performances of the Mahomes era.

I had an inkling ever since Sean Payton signed in Denver that this would be the game when the streak ends. But 24-9? Was never in my mind. And to think the Chiefs scored only 3 field goals on a day when DeAndre Hopkins caught 3 touchdowns…

Bengals at 49ers: Someone Let Them Know Beating Dallas Wasn’t the Super Bowl

Don’t look now, but the Bengals have moved up to No. 9 in the AFC, and they look more stable and reliable than the other 4-3 teams ahead of them (Steelers, Browns, and Jets). But the Bengals still trail those teams because they are 0-3 against AFC teams this season.

However, by winning in San Francisco, the Bengals completed a 4-0 sweep of the NFC West. This was the biggest one with the 49ers being the best team, or so we thought before what is now a 3-game losing streak with Brock Purdy’s turnover issues catching up to the offense.

That was always the main issue going into this season. What if those interceptions that Purdy gets away with start getting caught? Well, concussion related or not, the mistakes are turning into turnovers and the team is losing games that were within a score in the fourth quarter over it.

This one also exposed the defense some more as Joe Burrow was 28-of-32 for 283 yards and 3 touchdowns in one of his best games of his career. The way Kirk Cousins was quick and decisive with good protection on Monday night seemed to carry over for the way the Bengals played this game on the road. Even the running game was strong with Joe Mixon rushing for 87 yards and a touchdown.

Despite suffering a concussion on Monday night and getting cleared in record time under the new protocol, it would be hard to say that was the issue for Purdy here. He led the team with 57 rushing yards, which is a separate issue as it makes you ask why Christian McCaffrey (12 carries for 54 yards) wasn’t more dominant on the ground. But Purdy had solid passing numbers without Deebo Samuel in a 17-10 game that was about to go to the fourth quarter with the 49ers in the red zone.

That’s when his Mr. Irrelevant-looking mistake bit him as he tried to throw a pass near the sideline and it was intercepted and almost returned the distance for a touchdown. The Bengals did not turn that one into any points, but they intercepted Purdy on the next play from scrimmage too, and that one set up a 17-yard touchdown drive in one play after Ja’Marr Chase pulled in a score to make it 24-10.

Purdy threw a touchdown to McCaffrey, his second of the game, but the Bengals were flawless in a 4-minute offense situation with a 78-yard touchdown drive that consumed 5:18 and put the team back on top 31-17 with 2:54 left. Purdy was strip-sacked by Trey Hendrickson, then later padded the stats a bit with two meaningless completions for 69 yards.

No team steps up for every big game, but the Bengals answered the call here with excellent performances in the passing game, running game, and for the defense to hold down what was another elite offense with a bunch of big turnovers.

Eagles at Commanders: Almost a Repeat of Last Time

I guess I’m still stuck on what the 2022 Eagles were, because both Washington matchups this month burned me on predictions. I thought the Eagles would blow them out at least once, yet this game almost went to overtime at 31-31 just like the first game did. For some reason, Sam Howell turns into Steve Young when he plays this defense, which does not have the same pass rush as last year’s Super Bowl team.

Fortunately, these Eagles have an even better version of A.J. Brown as he just set the NFL record with his 6th-consecutive 125-yard receiving game. He barely hit the number (130), but it was enough to score 2 touchdowns and help this team to a 7-1 start.

But Washington did not make it easy again on the Eagles, who were even stopped on the Brotherly Shove after a Jalen Hurts fumble on 1st-and-goal at the 1, and they had to come back from a 24-17 deficit in the fourth quarter. DeVonta Smith caught a 38-yard touchdown to tie the game in his best game in many weeks, then the defense came up with an interception to put the Eagles at the 7-yard line for a short touchdown drive that ended with a pass to Julio Jones, who decided to dress as a red zone threat for Halloween.

Howell had a lot of good moments in this game, and it showed the potential he has if he can cut down on the sacks and other mistakes. But there were a few too many pivotal moments that went against him and the Commanders. The Philadelphia comeback from a 14-3 deficit started after Howell, who hit 20 of his first 21 passes, misfired on a 4th-and-1 pass late in the first half. Later, he threw the pick to Reed Blankenship that put Washington down 31-24, then on a 4th-and-8 at the Philadelphia 40, his pass was low and would have been a very tough catch for Terry McLaurin.

Then after getting one more chance to tie the game or possibly take the lead, Howell suffered his only sack of the game on a 4th down when Haason Reddick got to him and knocked the ball out, setting up the Eagles for a 16-yard touchdown drive to put it away at 38-24.

Washington still got another touchdown to screw the Eagles -7 bettors in a 38-31 game, but it was too late. At the very least, Howell did not tie records for the longest streaks in NFL history taking 4 or 5 sacks in a game. But the Eagles still completed the sweep of Washington, now a 3-5 team.

Jaguars at Steelers: Mike Tomlin’s Boogeyman

Nothing is scarier to Mike Tomlin’s Steelers than the Jacksonville Jaguars getting off the team bus in Pittsburgh. In franchise history, the Steelers have only been swept at home in a season twice, and both times it was the Jaguars against Tomlin in 2007 and 2017.

The good news for Steelers fans: Don’t worry about a Jacksonville sweep happening this year, because this team won’t have a home playoff game.

The Steelers (4-3) may not have any playoff games if they keep playing like this. The ironic thing about those Jacksonville sweeps is that in both seasons, the Jaguars had the kind of offense that is more of what the Steelers aspire to be. Physical, strong running game that sets up the pass, tough quarterback, and a solid offensive line.

In 2023, the Jaguars are again what the Steelers wish they can be on offense. Trevor Lawrence was the first quarterback taken in his draft class, he struggled as a rookie, but he improved last year with a new set of talented receivers. They used a first-round pick on running back Travis Etienne, hoping to turn his college production into pro production alongside his Clemson teammate.

While no one had Kenny Pickett anywhere near the level of Lawrence as a prospect, he was the first quarterback taken in 2022, and there was a thought he could improve in his second season alongside a talented receiving duo (George Pickens and Diontae Johnson), and the team used the pick right before Etienne in 2021 to take Najee Harris.

But on Sunday, it couldn’t be any clearer that Pittsburgh’s plan is failing while the Jaguars (6-2) are on the longest active winning streak in the NFL at 5 games.

Lawrence passed for 292 yards in the rain and survived the pass rush of the Steelers despite 3 sacks on quick pressures his line is known to allow.
Pickett was 10-of-16 for 73 yards and was knocked out of the game in the first half with a rib injury.
It took the Steelers 5 drives to gain a first down.
Etienne had the game’s longest play with a 56-yard touchdown catch while Harris had 55 yards on 12 touches.
George Pickens’ 22-yard touchdown catch was his only catch in the game while Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, and tight end Evan Engram combined for 20 catches for 217 yards.

It was Pittsburgh’s miserable offensive performance that wasted a defense that had 3 takeaways, and the Steelers were still trailing 17-3 with that 3-0 edge in the turnover department.

Enter Mitch Trubisky for Pickett, and one of the things a good backup should do is manage the game and not make the fatal mistakes to blow it. But Trubisky has a higher interception rate (2.8%) in Pittsburgh than he did in Chicago (2.3%) as he was careless with the ball again.

After Pittsburgh’s defense sacked Lawrence out of field-goal range in the fourth quarter, Trubisky had the ball in a 17-10 game with 10:14 left. But he quickly threw a poor pass deep that was picked off. The Jaguars had no problem turning that into another field goal, and taking a 20-10 lead with 4:35 left. The Steelers turned it over on downs, and that was basically a wrap. Trubisky threw another pick on a Hail Mary to end the game and make the turnover battle look closer at 3-2 Pittsburgh, but that is still no excuse for the Steelers to waste as many drives as they did on offense.

Pickett or Trubisky, I’m not sure there’s a difference or it matters right now. Not as long as Matt Canada is calling a pathetic offense and Tomlin seems to have no input on how to fix it.

The Steelers could take advantage of a rookie quarterback (Tennessee’s Will Levis) on a short week this Thursday to win another home game. But when it comes to playing a legitimate contender with a great offense like the Chiefs or Eagles, we see how the Steelers get blown out in recent years. When they play a playoff-caliber team like Jacksonville, they usually fold in those games too with the offense struggling to do anything.

This team is stuck in purgatory, and until major changes come, they will not ascend to being anything better than that.

Rams at Cowboys: Early Knockout

I miss the old days when the Cowboys had normal game scripts. This one was over when CeeDee Lamb caught his first touchdown to give Dallas a 26-3 lead with 12:45 left in the second quarter. Never mind the 43-20 scorigami that followed.

That’s right, it was a 23-point game just minutes into the second quarter. Oddly enough, the Dallas offense was the least impressive part of this run due to some sacks that made them look underwhelming. The special teams kicked ass with a 58-yard field goal, a punt blocked for a safety, and a 63-yard kick return on the free kick.

The defense intercepted Matthew Stafford for a 30-yard touchdown, then Micah Parsons sacked him on a third down before the punt block.

This was just an ass-kicking with the Rams never getting closer than 16 points the rest of the way. Stafford didn’t finish the game with a thumb injury that may have gotten worse on a play where he caught a 2-point conversion. Yes, he caught a pass.

It was the kind of mess I thought we’d see more often from the Rams this year given the roster limitations. But if Stafford is hurt and they already seem to have broken the Cooper Kupp connection (under 30 yards in back-to-back games), then what good is this team going forward?

Dallas just has to stay the course, because the talent is there to put it all together at the right time. Beating the Eagles next week would be a huge statement.

Patriots at Dolphins: Tua Moves to 6-0 vs. Belichick

I have said before that it’s kind of annoying that Tua Tagovailoa gets to be the first and only quarterback to go 5-0 against Bill Belichick, because he’s been facing the weakest of the New England teams, and he hasn’t even done a whole lot in those games (4 TD, 3 INT). He just avoids the big mistakes and his defense forces the Patriots into them with some huge fumbles.

But on Sunday, Tagovailoa had his best game yet against Belichick to move to 6-0 against the Patriots in his career. He passed for 324 yards and 3 touchdowns, the first time he had over 270 yards and more than 1 touchdown pass against New England.

But much like in Week 2, this was a 24-17 game in the fourth quarter with the Patriots (+8.5) hanging around. And just like in Week 2, the Dolphins hit a big play to turn the Patriots back after they made it a one-score game with Mac Jones finding JuJu Smith-Schuster on a 3-yard touchdown pass on fourth down.

Back in the day, the Patriots would force Miami into a mistake and get the ball back so you know who would have real chances to complete the comeback. But that’s rarely the case with these new Patriots.

Sure enough, the Patriots allowed Miami to convert a 3rd-and-9 to Tyreek Hill at midfield, then gave up a 31-yard touchdown to Jaylen Waddle on a 3rd-and-1 with 2:43 left to effectively end the game at 31-17.

This is the kind of thing that would never happen to New England in the dynasty years. Literally never, cause I had to look it up seeing as how the Dolphins did something similar in Week 2 when Raheem Mostert had a long touchdown run to go up 2 touchdowns on the Patriots.

We always hear about Belichick being so good at limiting the big plays, playing his bend-but-don’t-break style of defense, and making teams earn it on long drives. I thought allowing a 30-yard touchdown in a game you’re trailing by 1 score that makes it a 2-score game would look really bad. I looked it up, and sure enough, this never happened once to the Patriots in the Tom Brady years in 2001-19. But since, it’s happened 4 times now, including both games against the 2023 Dolphins. It also happened against the 2021 Colts and 2022 Bills, so that’s 4 times in the post-Brady years, none in the Brady era. You can’t make this stuff up.

Even if you drop it to 20 yards so that it’s all touchdowns from outside the red zone, it’s 2 (2006 Jets, 2017 Chiefs) vs. 4 times.

Belichick is the coach, so he has to take some blame for this. But it’s another one of those things that I refuse to credit Brady for not allowing to happen during his two decades. He didn’t play defense, unless you think he was a witch that had the power to will his teammates from the bench to do things for him.

I think it’s more of the Patriots don’t have defenders worth a damn like they used to step in and make a play, and it’s also the divisional opponents that have gotten so much more talented on offense (Bills and Dolphins, at least) that are doing this to them better than anyone.

Down 14 inside of 3:00, the Patriots went 4-and-out to end this one, dropping them to 2-6 in a division that now has the 6-2 Dolphins, 5-3 Bills, and 4-3 Jets.

New England is dead last in the AFC going into Week 9.

Browns at Seahawks: Late Pick Dooms Cleveland

On a list of hard-fought wins, this one would have to rank highly this season for Seattle. Both quarterbacks threw 2 interceptions, and it could have easily been more for both with the way the defenses were flashing all day long.

But it was P.J. Walker’s late pick that doomed the Browns. I get why they wanted to throw on a 3rd-and-3 at their 41 with the Seahawks still having a few timeouts and it was going to be the 2-minute warning after that play. But you have to protect the ball better, and Jamal Adams was able to deflect it to a teammate for a huge interception that set up Geno Smith at the Seattle 43 in a 20-17 game.

We talk about Geno not having a great record with comebacks, but he made the Cleveland defense fold like a cheap suit on this drive. Noah Fant had a 27-yard gain, and with a good block, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was able to spring free for a 9-yard touchdown with 38 seconds left to take a 24-20 lead.

This one probably goes to overtime at worst if Walker did anything but throw that pick. He still had a chance to do something with 38 seconds and 2 timeouts, but the Seahawks sacked him on third down, then he threw incomplete on 4th-and-19 to end the game.

Thanks to the 49ers (5-3) losing their third in a row, the Seahawks (5-2) are in first place in the NFC West. They won’t meet until Thanksgiving, but it should be interesting to see where this race goes with the Seahawks going to Baltimore next.

The Browns kind of stole a couple from the 49ers and Colts the last two weeks, so giving up one here in Seattle only feels fair for this 4-3 team that has lost some luster with the defense the last couple of games.

Texans at Panthers: Everyone’s a Winner Now

I was all about the Carolina Panthers (+3.5) getting their first win as my upset pick this week. Thought we would see more offense than 13-12, but the Panthers had no running game to speak of with the backs accounting for 20 carries for 33 yards. Bryce Young also took 6 sacks, so it was a miserable day for the offensive line.

Still, we rarely see NFL games with this much offensive struggle. It was the first game since 2018 Bills-Titans to end with neither team reaching 14 points and 230 yards offense. That game also happened to end 13-12.

The Texans punted on 6-of-9 drives and lost a fumble in the third quarter. But after taking a 13-12 lead when C.J. Stroud rushed for a 1-yard touchdown on a fourth-down play, the Texans never put the game away. They also missed a big 2-point conversion that would have made it 15-12 and protected against a field goal.

But this set the stage for the Panthers to end one of the league’s most embarrassing streaks. Since 2018, the Panthers had lost 56 games in a row when trailing in the fourth quarter. Their opportunity here would be the easiest comeback type there is with a 1-point deficit and an entire quarter to do something about it.

But the streak did finally end after a bumpy ride to get there with Young taking a pair of 3rd-down sacks in the quarter to end drives. But after the Texans stalled out inside the Carolina 40, Young got the ball back at his own 9 with 6:17 left to have his moment. He made some easy plays, and then overcame another sack by getting a screen pass to Adam Thielen, then fitting a ball in a tight window on a 4th-and-2 at midfield. The running game finally made a positive contribution with Chuba Hubbard using 3 runs to make a first down and burn precious clock.

The Panthers consumed the final 6:17 off the clock and set up the field goal as the final play. After the Texans were penalized for illegally trying to disrupt the kick, the 23-yard field goal from Eddy Pineiro was finally through the upright and the 56-game losing streak was over.

The advanced stats hate sacks, so you’ll probably see Stroud come out higher than Young in this game, but I think Young hung in there well on a day he had no running game, minimal protection, and the Panthers started 3 drives inside their own 10, including the one to win the game.

Maybe with a win in the books, we’ll see some better play out of the Panthers going forward. At least I can’t keep dogging them for always losing this kind of game like they did the last 5 years.

Ravens at Cardinals: Onside Kick Leads to Absurd Backdoor Cover for Awful Team

I guess the stats won’t reflect it since there were 27 points scored in the final 10 minutes alone, but I really thought this was a poor offensive game for both teams. It’s funny how the Ravens could put on one of the best performances by any team this season in stomping a solid Detroit roster last week but send them to Arizona and they couldn’t even walk away with a double-digit win like every other Arizona opponent has since Week 4.

Lamar Jackson did not stack big games this week as he only passed for 157 yards, and he would have been 0-for-5 on targets to Odell Beckham Jr. if not for a defensive penalty flag. Zay Flowers had 5 catches for 19 yards.

Like I said, this was largely a dud with two Joshua Dobbs interceptions leading to short field touchdown drives for the Ravens. But even after they led 31-15 with 2:51 left, the Ravens (-9.5) couldn’t cover the spread. They gave up a touchdown, stopped the 2-point conversion to keep it 31-21, but the Cardinals recovered a rare onside kick. We get so few of those in an NFL season, and this one was a waste as it only served to piss off Baltimore bettors. Matt Prater hit a 47-yard field goal with 26 seconds left to make it 31-24, and of course they didn’t recover a second onside kick.

Should have known better that it was too good to be true that the Ravens could win back-to-back games by double digits.

Saints at Colts: Defense Fails Again for Indy

In a season where so many teams are struggling to score, I appreciate Shane Steichen for getting his Colts to score 20+ points every single week. They did it again by halftime in this one, even leading 17-7 at one point, as the New Orleans defense is losing its shine more and more each week.

Unfortunately, the Colts are one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL, and this game was one of the lower points of the season as they made Derek Carr look like a viable deep passer. Carr finished 19/27 for 310 yards and 2 touchdowns, including 153 yards on 3 catches by Rashid Shaheed.

This was an offensive explosion for the 2023 Saints while the Colts were rough in the second half. Gardner Minshew avoided the strip-sacks this week, but he was picked near the goal line in the third quarter, then both fourth quarter drives when the Colts were only down by one touchdown failed. The Saints put it away with a field goal after Shaheed’s second 50-yard catch of the game converted a 3rd-and-13 situation with 2:52 left.

Maybe the Saints (4-4), the preseason division favorite, are still the right team to back in the NFC South this year. But this was already the 4th home game this season where the Colts gave up more than 28 points.

If that sounds like a lot for Week 8, that’s because 4 home games allowing 29+ points is the most by any Colts team in a full season since 1997 (4).

Jets at Giants: Sucking on Offense Everything Everywhere All at Once

If you thought it was pretty bad last week when the Giants and Commanders played a game with more possessions (27) than points (21), this one was even worse. Or does sucking more on offense actually make this the better game since the expectations were for them to be bad, and it somehow blew those away?

This is the kind of nonsense you grow to expect from The Battle of New York. This game had a whopping 34 possessions and 23 points, meaning the last two Giants games have had a total of 44 points on 61 possessions (0.72 points per drive). This team is single-handedly killing offense in 2023.

And yet, the Giants should have won this game in regulation despite having minus-8 net passing yards, something that hadn’t been done in the NFL in a win since the 1977 Eagles did it against the Giants (of course). The Giants lost Tyrod Taylor to a rib injury, backup Tommy Devito had time between his Jersey Boys rehearsals to score a rushing touchdown, and the Giants were on track to win this game despite punting 12 times.

That just goes to show how bad Zach Wilson is. After he took a 15-yard sack on 4th-and-10 with 1:26 left, the ending should have been nearly routine despite the Jets having 2 timeouts left.

But Brian Daboll, who should never get another Coach of the Year vote ever again, screwed up. He had a 4th-and-1 at New York’s 17 with 28 seconds left. You run the ball in this situation. It’s a 70% conversion rate flat, and even higher if you go with any kind of quarterback sneak. You don’t kick a field goal and leave them time in a 6-point game to beat you with a miracle touchdown. At worst, you don’t convert, and they’ll still play for the field goal anyway and overtime. That’s why you take the slight risk and go for the yard to end the game.

He chose field goal, and Graham Gano added to his growing list of chokes with a wide left 35-yard kick on a day that was not ideal weather on a field with a shit surface. One of the worst decisions of the season.

But little did anyone expect Wilson to make the Giants pay. He found his receivers twice for gains of 29 yards each, and he was able to get the offense ready for a spike with 1 second left. Greg Zuerlein was not going to miss his 35-yard field goal, and he sent the game to overtime. Stunning collapse.

If there was ever a game where you didn’t want to go first on offense in overtime, this should have been the one. The Giants had 3 plays all game that gained 10 yards, and one was a 17-yard run by Taylor, who was out. And yet, Daboll elected to receive first. What did he think was going to happen? They were going to magically put together a touchdown drive against one of the best defenses in the league to end it?

The Giants punted for the 13th time in the game, because all it took was a holding penalty on first down to completely kill the drive with a 1st-and-20.

To Wilson’s credit, he did convert a big 3rd-and-10 to avoid going three-and-out again for the Jets. Then a 30-yard defensive pass interference penalty set up Zuerlein for the 33-yard game-winning field goal to end this one 13-10.

I said on Saturday this game was most likely to end in a push with the Jets winning by 3. I think the Jets are one of the worst 4-3 teams I’ve ever seen, but the Giants deserved to lose this one with the stupid things they did late in the game.

Falcons at Titans: Farewell to the Ryan Tannehill Era

When your quarterback is in his mid-30s, coming off a bad year, and your team drafts a quarterback with a top 50 pick, that veteran’s days are probably numbered. Will Levis plummeted on draft night after some thought he could go in the top 4, but it was only a matter of time before he’d get a shot in Tennessee, especially with Ryan Tannehill’s extensive injury history.

That moment came in Week 8 and Will Levis joined Fran Tarkenton and Marcus Mariota as the only quarterbacks in NFL history to throw 4 touchdown passes in their debut. Let’s hope his career turns out better than Mariota’s did.

I loved the prop of DeAndre Hopkins scoring his first touchdown as no one was more due than him, but 3 in one game with the rookie quarterback? Tannehill had 2 touchdown passes on 158 attempts this year.

Now that does sound like something a classic Atlanta defense would do against a rookie, but I was still surprised at the Titans having that many big plays. Levis had three 30-yard touchdown passes in this game.

Was every ball perfectly thrown or against tight coverage? No, but I think you have to be fairly encouraged after a debut like this, especially with how little the Titans were getting out of their passing game with Tannehill. I think Mike Vrabel needs to stick with the rookie even when Tannehill is healthy.

As for the Falcons, they pulled Desmond Ridder for Taylor Heinicke in this one, or was it a concussion concern? Either way, Ridder wasn’t getting the job done and lost another fumble.

Heinicke had some shots in the fourth quarter to lead a game-winning touchdown drive, but it didn’t work out either time. I think the Falcons should have ran the ball on 4th-and-1 at their own 22 with 1:33 left just to make sure they’d get the first down before hurrying up, but Arthur Smith had other ideas.

Now the Falcons have quarterback questions, and the Titans have some new hope on their side. Levis had as many touchdown passes in his debut as Ridder had in his first 7 starts combined (4). Levis also had as many touchdown passes in his debut as Kenny Pickett’s best 3 games combined (2+1+1), and Pickett could be Levis’ next opponent if he is cleared to play Thursday night.

We’ll see how it goes, but Game No. 1 was a smashing success for the rookie.

Vikings at Packers: Et tu, Kirk? 😦

I have taken my share of shots and jokes at Kirk Cousins’ expense over the years, but I am truly upset that his season just likely ended to an Achilles tear after he was playing some of his best ball and may have led this team to a wild card position.

For all of Cousins’ shortcomings, he is still one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league, and he’s been a gamer with only one game missed to injury for a positive COVID test in his career. In a league where so many quarterbacks are struggling, having someone you could reliably expect to throw for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns means something.

Right, Green Bay fans? An accurate quarterback matters, and Jordan Love just isn’t that guy yet. He may never be. But it’s also true that this experiment of surrounding Love with a ton of young skill players is not working out for Matt LaFleur. Christian Watson’s big touchdown run from last year is looking like a fluke. Even the running game failed as Love led the Packers with 34 rushing yards in this game, another slow start for the offense that saw Green Bay trailing 10-3 at halftime.

The Packers never got closer than 24-10 in the fourth quarter, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t multiple opportunities to make this a game. The worst part was after Cousins was injured (non-contact) in the fourth quarter, the backup came in and coughed it up on a strip-sack just 3 plays into the drive. The Packers immediately started in the red zone, but just like the previous drive, they turned it over on downs after Love was unable to finish the job. A 15-yard scramble on 4th-and-16? Please.

At 2-5, Green Bay looks effectively done for the playoff race this year. At 4-4 with such a favorable remaining schedule, I’m not sure what the Vikings do. Trade for Kyler Murray? Eh, I don’t know about that one. It’s just unfortunate as this is the year that will be remembered for the quarterback Achilles injuries, Cousins and Rodgers. One was going to be an MVP candidate, and the other was actually leading the league in touchdown passes the week he was injured.

Just the most unfortunate part of this game, and if you’re a Green Bay fan, you know how good you had it when Brett Favre started 321 games in a row.

Bears at Chargers: NBC Gets the Dud It Deserved

Our 14th and final game is fittingly the Sunday night pillow fight between the Bears and Chargers, who both entered Week 8 as the No. 14 seed in their conference. Not only should this game have been flexed out of SNF, but it never should have made the prime-time schedule. I could have told you that in April or even in March when the Bears traded the top pick to Carolina.

I’m not convinced this is any more of a game if Justin Fields was the starter as the Bears had no answers for Justin Herbert’s passing (31-of-40 for 298 yards, 3 TD) while the offense neglected to throw to D.J. Moore in the second half against arguably the worst pass defense in the league.

Seriously, what kind of Chargers game has them with a 30-7 lead in the fourth quarter with not even a hint of a collapse around the corner? That was garbage, and I hope the NFL remembers that the next time they have the chance to flex out a bad game on what is supposed to be the prestigious spot in their weekly programming.

Instead, we had to listen to Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth talk up Tyson Bagent for 3 hours. Oh, the horror.

Next week: Bring on the legitimately big games. Chiefs-Dolphins, Seahawks-Ravens, Cowboys-Eagles, and Bengals-Bills are all part of the Week 9 schedule. I might have to actually get up before 10:00 AM for this one.

NFL Week 8 Predictions: No Bye Weeks Edition

October 28, 2023 ~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

I’m not sure why, and I’m not complaining, but there are no NFL teams on a bye week in Week 8, which is usually right in the thick of the byes. Instead, we have all 32 teams in action and they still somehow picked one of the worst prime-time slates possible, and I would have said this back in April.

I’ll try to get through Bucs-Bills later without swearing too much, but I really hope Bears-Chargers, a Sunday night game between the league’s two No. 14 seeds, somehow delivers a great game. It seems like those games everyone expects will suck sometimes turn out to be one of the best games that week. Hell, it might even produce more points than Dolphins-Eagles did last week if the Bears show up to take advantage of that Brandon Staley defense.

But yeah, it’s not a schedule worth hyping. That will come next week when we talk Dolphins-Chiefs.

This Week’s Articles

Why Are NFL Quarterb ack Sacks At a 25-Year High? – My story this week is on sacks, which are at their highest rate since 1998 and we can mostly blame Sam Howell and the Giants for this. But there are other issues like too many inexperienced, mobile quarterbacks, not enough quality offensive linemen, and a long list of great pass rushers.

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 8 – After almost going winless last week, I dialed it back a little but still came up with + odds for every pick this week.
Computer Picks (BMR)
Computer Picks (OT)
Prime Time Picks (BMR)
Prime Time Picks (OT)
Best Bets
Upset Alert – Give me Carolina over Houston
Player Props (BMR)
Player Props (OT)

NFL Week 8 Predictions

That fourth quarter in Bucs-Bills almost ended my days of gambling. Even though I knew early on it was going to end 24-18 so I’d lose both bets ($1600), the way it happened with that ridiculously long, 4th-down filled, penalty filled, tipped and deflected TD and 2PC for 8 point drive was a masterclass in the universe fucking me over. It is enough to probably make me leave out the spread/MOV in these island games. You just can’t trust these teams. Give me props and unders instead this season.

I think Eagles win easy after going to OT with the Commanders to start October.

I really like the Jaguars as I think the Steelers, the lesser team, are due for a loss, and that defense can force this bad offense into multiple turnovers. Only wild card is if Trevor Lawrence gets overwhelmed with quick pressures by T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, because the Jacksonville OL does allow that. But if Lawrence has protection, he should shred this secondary with those receivers, and I like Kirk more than Ridley.

Just got a hunch Derek Carr plays his best game in Indy. I’m done with that offense if he stinks in this one.

Got multiple links above to explain my Houston upset by Carolina pick. It’s time. Not only is Carolina winless, but the Cardinals are the only other team who doesn’t have 2 wins already. You can’t tell me this team has been that bad. I also don’t buy Houston as a playoff team yet. Give me Carolina, the team that’s lost 56 straight games when trailing in the 4th quarter. Maybe that finally ends this week too.

Got a 24-20 feel for Rams-Cowboys.

So it’s Will Levis at QB for the Titans? Maybe Malik Willis and Will Levis? Man, will DeAndre Hopkins ever score a TD this year? I like him to, but I’m going to take the Falcons cautiously.

Battle of New York is a better under bet than anything, but I feel like Tyrod gives them a better shot than Daniel Jones would. Either way, feels like the game most likely to end in a push (decided by 3), so I took Giants ATS just in case. But the Jets do have the better defense. I just trust Zach Wilson even less than Taylor in the battle of backups.

Patriots usually bomb in Miami. Might have been a week early on a big Waddle game (100+ and a TD)

I feel like Kirk Cousins and the Vikings are the better team than Green Bay right now, but that’s not really a game I’d bet on for the scoreboard. Check my Scott’s Seven link above for the parlay idea on Cousins & Love.

Browns-Seahawks might be my least confident game of the week. Staying away from it.

Also probably staying away from Bengals-49ers with Brock Purdy’s concussion uncertainty. Generally want to fade a QB coming off a concussion. But I can see a game where the Bengals lose by 3 points after the 49ers finally figure out how to win a close one.

Big spreads the rest of the way but we know the Ravens and Chargers are capable of making any game close. Hell, you could say that about the Chiefs, and I still believe the Broncos have a close one in them this year with that team. That’s why I like Chiefs win by 1-13 more than either team +/- 7.5.

Ravens by 11 (Zay Flowers TD)
Chiefs by 7 (Pacheco TD)
Chargers by 3 (Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore over 80 yards each)
Lions by 10 (Gibbs TD/100+ RYD)

A praying mantis visited my kitchen door today. Some believe they are supposed to bring good luck. Let’s hit something huge this weekend.

They owe me after that horseshit Tampa Bay TD drive. WTF? Even Brady didn’t have anything like that in 3 years down there.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

October 23, 2023 ~ Scott ~ 14 Comments

Save for a Monday night game with Kirk Cousins facing a Super Bowl contender, Week 7 is in the books. While everyone has at least 10 more games to play before the playoffs, we may have reached that point where a Super Bowl rematch from last year looks more probable than any other scenario. Remember, it has only happened one time ever with the Cowboys and Bills in 1992-93.

The Chiefs and Eagles were the favorites before the season started, but we watched Kansas City lose by a point on opening night to Detroit, we questioned if the offense was still as potent with the wide receivers, and we saw the Eagles win some one-score games where they weren’t as impressive as they were a season ago when they had so much balance and avoided turnovers on offense. We were briefly entertaining how good Miami’s scoring was, how it could be Buffalo or Dallas’ year for a change, and of course the 49ers looked like the best overall team in the league until they stumbled in Cleveland last week.

But the roads to the Super Bowl may still very well go through Kansas City and Philadelphia after they both won 31-17 games at home in a Week 7 that featured 10-of-12 games with a comeback opportunity. It comes down to trust, and right now, do you really trust teams like Buffalo, Dallas, and Miami to get the job done in January? Do you even trust the 49ers over the Eagles, who are practically automatic in short-yardage situations and are getting an all-time stretch from A.J. Brown? Patrick Mahomes (+260 at FanDuel) is also back as the MVP favorite after throwing for 424 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Of course, another Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl would be nightmare fuel for conspiracy theorists who want to say the league is fixing things for Taylor Swift, and that would be her ideal matchup for sure. But if you look around the league in Week 7, officiating is quite shitty in most games these days. That’s part of the product now.

One thing I expected to see in Week 7 was more overs hitting after the under was 12-2-1 in Week 6. But after a solid start to the week, overs are still just 5-7 (or 6-6 if you got Chiefs-Chargers at 47.5) going into Monday night. There were only 3 games this week where both teams scored more than 17 points, and one of them was Thursday night when the Saints lost 31-24 to the Jaguars.

Another thing we have yet to see this week was a team win after trailing by 10+ points. There have only been 2 weeks in the regular season since 2020 where this did not happen once, and it was in Weeks 10-11 (back-to-back) of the 2021 season. If the Vikings go up 10-0 early on Monday night, hammer the 49ers’ ML.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Dolphins at Eagles: Brother, Can You Spare a Yard?

Is it asking too much to have a Sunday Night Football game this season where both teams score at least 3 touchdowns? It would be if the game was Cowboys-Giants (Week 1’s 40-0 rout), but Dolphins-Eagles should have been a solid shootout with two of the best offenses in the league.

Instead, we saw the home team control play, never trail, and that historic Miami offense was held to 10 points, 12 first downs, and 244 total yards (all season lows). Miami’s first score was a 1-yard field goal drive set up by a turnover, and its last score was a pick-six after a deflected pass at the line went right to the defender. You could argue this Miami offense only had one legitimate scoring drive, a 72-yard march before halftime that ended with Tua Tagovailoa’s best throw of the night on a 27-yard touchdown to Tyreek Hill, who was held to 11 catches for 88 yards. With 15 targets for Hill, you’ll take that as a defense against him.

It did not help Miami that it only had 8 offensive possessions and squandered the last three with two failed 4th downs and a bad interception in the fourth quarter when the Dolphins trailed 24-17.

Both offensive lines looked outmatched early, but the Eagles eventually got the better of the physical play up front and got to their game in short yardage. The Eagles were 4-for-4 on fourth down, including a pair of 4th-and-1 conversions inside their own 40 on a drive that ended with a short touchdown run to take a commanding 31-17 lead with 4:46 left. What can you say about the Brotherly Shove other than this team has perfected it?

A.J. Brown had both of the game’s plays that gained over 30 yards, continuing his record-tying streak of five consecutive games with at least 125 receiving yards:

For the Eagles, I had that record going back to last year’s Super Bowl where this team was 0-7 in the Jalen Hurts era in games against teams with 10 wins and a quarterback ranked in the top 15 in QBR. This could end up being the first win in that split, assuming Tagovailoa finishes the season well and the Dolphins double their win total.

But there was some concern coming into this game that Miami was a paper tiger with a 48-20 beatdown loss in Buffalo and all the team’s wins against teams who were a combined 5-24 going into the week. A performance like this in Philadelphia will only strengthen people to not believe in this team, but they were a bit shorthanded at corner with Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey not available. Jaylen Waddle also momentarily left the game with a bad back but did return to finish, and we are missing a chance to see rookie running back De’Von Achane after injury sidelined him for weeks to come.

But for as much as I can talk about the Eagles not beating the good teams/QBs, the Dolphins don’t have a quality win in that department since Week 3 last year against Buffalo, the beginning of Tua’s concussion problems. Miami still has a lot to prove, and a game like this puts a real dent in the chances this offense breaks records by season’s end.

Chargers at Chiefs: The Most Boring Second Half in a Herbert-Mahomes Game Yet

Kansas City with a defense is a scary proposition for the rest of the NFL. There were few better ways to test this than a game with the Chargers, who always play the Chiefs well. In fact, Justin Herbert led at halftime and in the fourth quarter in each of his first 6 games against Kansas City, including all 5 matchups against Patrick Mahomes.

But those streaks are dead, and I guess my jinxing power is still strong. I had the stat this week where Chargers +3.5 in the first half was a hit in the last 16 games for the Chargers. It hit in 33 of the first 40 games for coach Brandon Staley as this team struggles in the second half but not so much in the first.

After a 60-yard pass to Josh Palmer and a 49-yard touchdown run by Josh Kelley in the second quarter, it looked like the Chargers were having their usual Kansas City game where Herbert plays great and goes score for score with Mahomes. So much for this “great defense” when the Chargers were tied 17-17 and driving at midfield. But after a Herbert sack led to a punt, the Chiefs made another one of those dagger drives before halftime, going 96 yards in the final minutes before finishing with a touchdown to Travis Kelce, who bullied his way in with the help of his line from the 1-yard line.

The touchdown likely never happens, and Chargers +3.5 1H probably survives another game, if not for a defensive pass interference on the Chargers to wipe out a 3rd-and-23 situation for Kansas City. Just my luck some Chargering would end this streak and blow the bet.

But down 24-17, the Chargers were in this one even though Mahomes passed for 321 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception (arm punt on 3rd-and-12) in the first half alone as the Chiefs were all about the pass (6 runs for 12 yards at halftime). It looked like we would get another fantastic finish, especially after Blake Bell provided the obligatory Chiefs fumble in the red zone to start the second half.

But a strange thing happened in the second half: 10 drives, 7 points total between the teams. A 24-17 half ended 31-17, which is very unusual in NFL history.

Out of 433 games since 1970 where both teams scored at least 17 points in the first half, this is only the 27th game (6.2%) that finished under 48.5 total points. It is only the 6th game to end under 48.5 after a half where one team scored at least 24 points and the other scored at least 17.

The turnovers were obviously costly. The Chargers took the Bell fumble, drove to the Kansas City 8, then Herbert’s pass was deflected at the line and wound up as an interception.

Despite that pick, the Chargers had the ball in the fourth quarter, down 24-17, on three different drives and failed to do anything with it. That’s not what we’d see from Kansas City defenses in past years.

If you give Herbert 3 drives to do something, he usually can get a score on one, but not on Sunday. If you give Mahomes 3 drives to put the game away, you can all but guarantee he’s going to do it eventually. The first two likely only failed because they started at the Kansas City 3 and 8 (backed up). But after Mecole Hardman made his return felt with a 50-yard punt return, it was smooth sailing for the Chiefs with 6:16 to go. Mahomes converted a 3rd-and-6 to Hardman, then threw his 4th touchdown of the game to Isiah Pacheco with 3:30 left to take a 31-17 lead.

In no man’s land on 2nd-and-24 at midfield, Herbert threw another desperation interception to end the game. Herbert had the first game of his career where he threw multiple interceptions and took at least 4 sacks (he had 2 INTs and 5 sacks).

The Chiefs are the only team in the league to not allow more than 21 points in any game this season. Mahomes’ 6th game with 400 yards and 4 touchdowns ties him for third place in NFL history.

When every non-playoff rest game between these teams had been decided by 1-6 points since 2020 when Herbert became the starter, this one ending 31-17 is another sign that we should respect this defense. I don’t know if they can keep it up for a whole season as the last teams to start like this eventually faded, but if the offense is going to have halves like it did on Sunday to start this game, it may not matter.

Bills at Patriots: The Mac Jones Era Will Survive Another Week

This was the upset of the week. Buffalo (-7.5) has been flirting with extremes from a 48-20 win over the Dolphins to losing 25-20 in London to Jacksonville, then coming up a yard short of losing to the Giants in a 14-9 game last week.

I thought they would take last week’s scare and go the opposite direction with a commanding win over a New England team they have owned since 2020, and possibly put an end to the Mac Jones era.

But this wasn’t some 4-D chess by the Bills to make the Patriots keep Jones as the starter. This was just a bad performance on both sides of the ball and it’s inexcusable at this point. The offense may have some flaws, but it is more than talented enough to have more than 10 points on the board before the fourth quarter. The defense has injuries as we all know, but the New England offense has been so bad that there’s no excuse for allowing the Patriots to pile up 29 points and 364 yards.

What were some of Buffalo’s problems? The usual case of relying a bit too much on Josh Allen, who can be a wild card with his decision making. He had a pick and lost a fumble in this game. But the offensive line also struggled to protect him, and that’s surprising when the Patriots didn’t even have their best pass rusher (Matt Judon) or corner (Christian Gonzalez). Stefon Diggs usually has his way with the Patriots, but he only had 58 yards on 12 targets this time. Gabriel Davis is a flawed No. 2 as he only had a 6-yard catch on 5 targets.

But to let Jones complete 25-of-30 passes for 272 yards and 2 touchdowns? Come on, Buffalo. This was looking to be a big New England win after the Patriots took a 22-10 lead with half a quarter to play, but the Bills staged an impressive team comeback. Diggs broke free on an athletic 25-yard touchdown, then the defense forced Kendrick Bourne to fumble on a completion, putting the Bills 29 yards away from the go-ahead touchdown with 4:56 left.

This is exactly the kind of back-breaking fumble that has been killing the Patriots in close games like this since 2020. The kind of play that has nothing to do with the quarterback or head coach, but it’s the type of mistake we’re not used to seeing the Patriots make. Sure enough, the Bills turned that short field into a touchdown on an Allen sneak, then the 2-point conversion was also successful to make it 25-22.

Plenty of time (1:58) for the Patriots to answer, but it was a windy day for kickers, and Jones had the worst record among active quarterbacks in comeback opportunities at 1-11. Almost immediately the Bills were in bad shape as the Patriots called a little pass to running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who took it 34 yards and got this thing rolling. A pass interference penalty put the ball at the 1, and Jones threw a game-winning touchdown pass to tight end Mike Gesicki with 12 seconds left for easily the best game-winning drive we’ve seen from the Patriots since the 2018 season.

The Bills only had time to fumble on a lateral attempt. Buffalo is only 4-3, and while we put a lot of stock in that 48-20 thrashing of the Dolphins, we have to question the Bills’ wins the same way we do Miami’s since they are against similar teams (Raiders, Commanders, and Giants).

The good news is Miami lost too Sunday night, but the whole AFC East is looking a bit fraudulent right now. With a chance to knock the Patriots out, the Bills folded on defense to Mac Jones in the clutch. That’s pretty low.

Lions at Ravens: Rout of the Week

If Bills-Patriots was the upset of the week, this was the unexpected rout of the week. I was really confident in this being a great 23-20 type of game that went down to the wire. Even when the Ravens went up 21-0, you could picture them blowing it with the way they have played since 2021. Too many blown leads and close games.

But this was an ass kicking the likes of which we have rarely seen this year. We definitely do not see Dan Campbell-coached teams get dragged like this for 60 minutes. The Lions are 28-13 ATS (68.3%) since 2021, the best record in the league in that time, and we have seen this team rally back to one-score losses against elite teams the last few years like the 2021 49ers (41-33), 2022 Eagles (38-35), and 2022 Bills (28-25).

With Detroit trying to go to 6-1, Lamar Jackson came prepared with arguably the best game of his career: 21-of-27 for 357 yards, 3 touchdown passes, 36 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, and 4 straight long touchdown drives to begin the game. It may have been 5 touchdowns in a row if Jackson had not had an aborted snap, the only blemish to an otherwise perfect half.

Baltimore even started the second half with a 94-yard touchdown drive, showing this was not a day where the team would make things too close for comfort. The Lions only got on the board when it was 35-0 in the fourth quarter when rookie Jahmyr Gibbs scored his first NFL touchdown, but the Lions lost 38-6 as Jared Goff took 5 sacks and threw 53 passes in an effort to try to keep up.

But the Ravens dominated this one start to finish, which is not the type of performance we’ve seen from this team that often. I’m not sure if it was just one of those anomaly days for both teams, but this was a strong statement as people were giving me pushback earlier this month for suggesting the Ravens were a legit contender and a team like Detroit was merely window dressing for the Super Bowl competition.

Browns at Colts: The Unexpected Quasi-Shootout

From Saturday’s predictions: “Wouldn’t it be such a #RandomNFL thing for the Browns to beat the 49ers with P.J. Walker but lose to the Colts with Deshaun Watson back? I almost picked it outright, but we’ll go with an Indy cover.”

Since 1950, NFL teams were 0-631 when allowing 38 points, throwing 2 interceptions, and getting outgained by at least 110 yards. Welcome to history because the Browns won doing all those things in Indy on Sunday.

Something always felt off about this game, and I’m still surprised picking Indy +3.5 and the Browns to win proved to be my best game prediction in Week 7. But the Browns were getting so much credit for the defense, and the Colts are now the only team in the league to score at least 20 points in every game.

But I don’t think anyone in the world could have predicted a 39-38 final from this one. What makes it even crazier is P.J. Walker outplayed Deshaun Watson, who left injured very early after he slammed his head on the ground, and while the Cleveland defense technically did some great things to get this win, it was at the expense of holding the Colts to 38 points instead of closer to 50 like they had potential for. Is that great defense these days? Meh.

I don’t know what this game will do for Cleveland going forward, but Gardner Minshew throwing for 305 yards and running in 2 touchdowns has to knock some shine off the idea of this being a historic defense.

And yet, it was a monster performance from Myles Garrett that helped turn things around for Cleveland. He forced a strip-sack of Minshew, which led to a short field and game-tying touchdown at 14-14. He blocked a 60-yard field goal in impressive fashion, though you could argue the Colts should have punted there early in the second quarter. Garrett then forced another strip-sack of Minshew that his teammate picked up for a Cleveland touchdown on a fumble recovery in the end zone.

The teams kept exchanging scores in the fourth quarter, though the Colts failed on some chances to put the game away. They even got a go-ahead 75-yard touchdown to Michael Pittman Jr., the second time this year he got a big YAC play for a touchdown.

But the Colts punted back to Cleveland and Walker with 2:35 left, and the defense failed to put the game away. There was a strip-sack that would have done the trick, but an illegal contact penalty wiped that out in the red zone. But the next play is the scrutinized one as defensive pass interference was called on what clearly looked like an uncatchable ball in the back of the end zone:

Was DPI the right call here? pic.twitter.com/UeanlsV5l6
— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) October 22, 2023

I think that’s a really bad call against the Colts. On the other hand, a no-call would have made it 2nd-and-goal from the 8 with 33 seconds left. Not exactly a game over situation. But still, it made things easier from the 1-yard line, and it looked like Cleveland was going to botch it by throwing 3 times in a row instead of running. I know they didn’t have timeouts but play the percentages. The run is more likely going to work than Walker throwing.

On 4th-and-goal, the Browns finally ran and Kareem Hunt barely broke the plane with 15 seconds left. The Browns failed on the 2-point conversion, but it didn’t matter much at that point. Minshew was strip-sacked a third time, but the only surprise is it wasn’t Garrett again. Minshew finished with 4 turnovers for the second game in a row, though he was much better this week than last week in Jacksonville.

We’ll see where these teams finish and if this quarter proves decisive for playoff seeding. But what a wild game, and a complicated one in trying to figure out how well Minshew is playing, and how great the Cleveland defense is this year.

Also, the Browns have a huge Watson problem, but that’s a story for another day. It just amuses me that Kevin Stefanski can maximize every quarterback in his offense except the one who is supposed to be the best. Maybe that’s just karma.

Packers at Broncos: From Favre-Elway to Rodgers-Manning to THIS

Boy, if this is what it takes for Denver to win a home game under Sean Payton, then enjoy it, because there aren’t going to be many more of these wins. Green Bay flopped off its bye week with a scoreless first half, but it took Denver 2.5 quarters to find the end zone too.

Green Bay was much stronger in the second half, not unlike the 17-0 comeback against the Saints this year, and the Packers scored on three straight drives to take a 17-16 lead with 8:31 left. You had to start thinking this wasn’t Denver’s year when touchdowns like this on 4th-and-2 are happening to them:

The Broncos are on the verge of blowing their 11th straight half time lead after this ridiculous touchdown 😂

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/KddsYuVZQr
— br_betting (@br_betting) October 22, 2023

It starts to make sense why Denver has lost 10 games in a row after having the lead at halftime. But this would not be No. 11. In fact, by coming back with a field goal drive to win the game, Denver made sure Green Bay was the first team to blow 3 fourth-quarter leads this season.

Russell Wilson did not have a great game, but he got the offense close enough for Wil Lutz to bang in his fourth field goal from 52 yards away to take a 19-17 lead with 3:50 left. That was plenty of time for Jordan Love to answer, but I think conservative calls once the Packers reached Denver territory combined with a holding penalty short-circuited the drive.

Love’s accuracy issues showed up on a 2nd-and-20 incompletion to Christian Watson, which saw the receiver go down with an apparent knee injury. On 3rd-and-2, Love just threw one up and it was intercepted to essentially end the game. The Broncos ran out every second of the clock and escaped with the 19-17 win.

Green Bay has lost back-to-back games in which it did not allow 20 points, which has not happened to the Packers since 2005 when Aaron Rodgers was a rookie on the bench. If only there was a quarterback of that caliber waiting in the wings on this Green Bay bench.

Steelers at Rams: When Coming Up Short Is Enough to Win the Game

Yes, the Steelers started the game with a 3-and-out, they had only one field goal at halftime, and T.J. Watt bailed them out with a great interception to start the third quarter, setting up a 7-yard touchdown drive.

All those things made it look like Matt Canada was perfectly representing his brand in LA after a bye week. But for the rest of the game, the Steelers actually looked like a competent offense that could get the ball to its best receivers about as well as Matthew Stafford got the ball to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.

While Nacua (154 yards) had a monster day, Kupp did not, catching 2-of-7 targets for 29 yards with a couple of early drops that seemed to set him up for a bad day – if it wasn’t my bets that did him in since I am a proven jinx of the highest order. Kupp’s only real contribution was on a 2-point conversion to put the Rams up 17-10.

You have to go back to Week 6 of the 2020 season to find the last time a defense held Kupp under 30 yards in a game he did not leave injured. That was against the 49ers, and he had 11 yards on 3 catches and 9 targets. This was shocking for a Pittsburgh defense that has been awful against top receivers. But Stafford and Kupp did not bring their A game for this one.

Neither did kicker Brett Maher, who missed a pair of field goals from 51 and 53 yards away in this game. Again, as someone who led a picks article off this week with Rams over 1.5 made field goals, I can’t help but feel like a total f’n jinx.

And it’s not like I did these things to root for the Steelers to win. I barely wanted to watch this game and was flipping between the Chiefs-Chargers on CBS and the RedZone channel, because I’ve grown to hate watching Canada’s offense that much.

But in Diontae Johnson’s return game from injury, he made the crucial play on a 3rd-and-8 to start the fourth quarter. He turned a short throw into a 39-yard gain. He may never score a touchdown again with Kenny Pickett as his quarterback, but he is good for a play like that from time to time. Pickett also started looking sharper on his throws to George Pickens in the second half.

The Johnson play set up Jaylen Warren for a 13-yard touchdown run to tie the game. Pickens and Johnson had big catches to set up Najee Harris for a 3-yard go-ahead touchdown run with 7:20 left.

Pittsburgh’s defense held after Stafford threw 3 straight incompletions from his 43. The Steelers had 5:28 to burn and they shockingly did it. Pickens had a 31-yard gain on a 3rd-and-3. A taunting penalty on the Steelers, something they had a few of in this game on the receivers, negated what would have been a terrible defensive pass interference penalty on the Rams on 3rd-and-8. Replaying the down, the Steelers came up 1 yard short.

Mike Tomlin had to go for the 4th-and-1 at the Los Angeles 39 with a chance to win the game. The Rams were out of timeouts and only 2:24 remained. The Steelers ran their own version of the Tush Push, and Pickett looked like he was short. The chains were brought out, and shockingly, he was just over the marker for the game-clinching first down.

The Rams were hosed.

If you watch any good replay, you can see Pickett slipped and his knee was down very quickly after getting the ball. He was short of the marker, but the refs blew the spot. Since it was outside of the 2-minute warning and the Rams were out of timeouts, Sean McVay could not challenge the play. It is not 100% certain they would have reserved the call on the field even if he did have a challenge, but he would have had a decent case of getting the ball back with a solid 2:00 to play.

It’s not even the most egregious late-game officiating blunder in a game involving Sean McVay (ask Saints fans). Remember, the Steelers were up 24-17 and Stafford would have needed to drive 60 yards for a touchdown to tie or a 2-point conversion to take the lead. But it was still a pretty bad spot and cheap ending to a game that turned out more decent than expected.

The Steelers are 4-2, and if not for coming up short to win a game, this might be viewed as their most legitimate win this season. But here they are, continuing to win games without playing their best. It shouldn’t be sustainable but given the schedule and if the health of players like Watt and Pickens allow for it, this team is going to win 9-10 games and be in the playoff mix with the rest of the AFC North.

Falcons at Buccaneers: NFC South of Heaven

The Falcons (4-3) are back in first place in the NFC South after a 16-13 win in Tampa Bay, but the game served as a solid reminder of why this is still a bad division and the NFC East runner-up is likely to notch a playoff win against the eventual winner here.

I was on Atlanta to win because I trust the offense’s ability to move the ball more than I do Tampa Bay’s right now. I may not trust the Falcons to put many drives in the end zone, but what can you say about a Tampa Bay team that has now lost 25-11 (Eagles), 20-6 (Lions), and 16-13 at home this season?

I don’t even know if I feel like commenting on the Bijan Robinson shenanigans, but it sure does look suspicious when a player who was not on the injury report has a surprise illness, then sits out most of the game until they decide to give him a carry for 3 yards with 33 seconds left in the game. What the hell was that?

But both teams made the kind of mistakes in crunch time that make them hard to trust come January. Desmond Ridder had an efficient passing stat line, but with a chance to put the game away with a touchdown run to go up 20-10, he got a little soft at the end of the run and fumbled through the end zone with 6:30 left to keep it a 13-10 game. Huge mistake.

But Baker Mayfield made a bigger mistake in field goal range with 3:46 left:

Baker Mayfield huge INT 😬

Falcons (+3) are in control 💪 pic.twitter.com/6B6Ueeo6w4
— OddsTrader (@OddsTrader_) October 22, 2023

It’s plays like that that made trusting him in Tampa Bay hard this year. But did he do the Tom Brady thing and take advantage of another opportunity after his defense forced the 3-and-out? Yes, the Buccaneers drove right down the field again into kicking range. But they weren’t able to get the touchdown after a 3rd-down sack of Mayfield inside the 10, and it did not help that he threw two incompletions before that to save clock for Atlanta in a tied game.

Ridder had 2 timeouts and 45 seconds, which we know is plenty of time in this league for these kickers. After almost hooking up with Kyle Pitts for a big play, the two did it again for a bigger one at 39 yards, and that basically set up the kick. After a couple of runs, Younghoe Koo came out and drilled the field goal from 51 yards out to give Atlanta a 16-13 win.

Neither of these teams will be feared in January but remember this quarter when it comes to figuring out which one gets to host the playoff game for the NFC South.

Cardinals at Seahawks: If a Bear Shits in the Woods…

Did anyone really care that this game was going on, or that the Seahawks were in a dogfight for most of the day as an 8.5-point favorite before covering late? I think we’re over the Joshua Dobbs experimental part of the season and would prefer to see Kyler Murray return even if he is likely not in the future plans for this franchise.

Kenneth Walker failing to score twice from the 1-yard line was more of my success as a jinx against myself. The Seahawks ended up settling for a field goal and 17-10 lead, and the game stayed that way for roughly 20 minutes. Matt Prater was wide left on a 34-yard field goal for the Cardinals with 11:06 left. Later, a fake punt doomed the Cardinals, only gaining 4 yards on 4th-and-9 with 4:58 left.

Seattle, which played without D.K. Metcalf (ribs), finally put it away from there with a 48-yard field goal with 2:17 left to make it 20-10. Dobbs was sacked on a 4th-and-11 at midfield to end the game.

I know the Seahawks (4-2) are currently the No. 5 seed in the NFC, but I just can’t muster up much interest in games with Arizona right now.

Raiders at Bears: Just Put McDaniels Out of His Misery

Once again, we must figure out which is the most embarrassing loss for Josh McDaniels with the Raiders:

Was it when he blew a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter to Arizona after Kyler Murray needed 20 seconds of scrambling to convert a 2-point conversion?
Was it losing to Jeff Saturday in his first game as interim coach of the Colts when he had no previous coaching experience in the NFL or college football? Saturday never won another game.
Was it when he blew a 16-3 lead in the fourth quarter to Baker Mayfield, who signed with the Rams 48 hours before the game?

Or is it when McDaniels lost 30-12 and wire-to-wire to a 1-5 Chicago team that was an underdog with an undrafted rookie quarterback nicknamed T-Bag?

No matter which one you choose, the fact that there are this many contenders just 24 games into McDaniels’ tenure should tell us that he should be fired as this is not working out.

Another sign it’s not working out: Raiders have not scored 20 points on offense in any game this season. They only reached 21 points against the Patriots last week on a safety. This is the longest streak to start a season since the 2009 Redskins made it 8 games without 20 offensive points.

I’m not even sure pointing out Brian Hoyer started for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo is that noteworthy. Did I mention the Bears started Tyson Bagent? Hoyer is McDaniels’ guy going back to the Patriots. He knows his offense. He just didn’t execute it well against one of the worst defenses in the league. Meanwhile, the Bears kept things easy for Bagent with short throws, and he managed the game well while D’Onta Foreman scored 3 touchdowns.

The NFL can do better than giving second head coaching jobs to people like Dennis Allen (Saints) and McDaniels when it was so bad on the first try. It was not a fluke that it did not work out the first time, and coaching under Sean Payton and Bill Belichick is not a proven path to coaching well on your own.

Commanders at Giants: You Can’t Spell “Sack Machine” Without S-A-M

Both offenses are lousy at blocking, but I picked the Giants because I figured Tyrod Taylor would manage the pressure better than Sam Howell, and this Jack Del Rio-coached defense is worse than what the Giants have.

There were 10 sacks in the game, but Washington (6) took more, and Taylor did help his team to a 14-0 lead where they just had to hang on for the second half. But this game was FUGLY. There were more possessions (27) than points (21).

The Commanders may have been scoreless if the Giants didn’t muff a punt and set up a 21-yard field for Washington’s only touchdown. But that was it for the scoring. The Giants blocked a 27-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter, Saquon Barkley lost a fumble inside the 10 yard line on the next drive, and Jahan Dotson dropped a 4th-and-5 pass that he had a shot at catching inside the 5-yard line with under a minute left. The Giants took knees to end it from there.

For as bad as the offenses were, at least the final quarter was interesting. But I don’t know how much longer Washington can go before Howell is injured or replaced. He is on pace for 97 sacks this season.

Next week: A trio of prime-time games with Bucs-Bills, Bears-Chargers, and Lions-Raiders? This season really hates the viewers. The closest we get to “good” games this week involve the AFC North with Steelers-Jaguars, Bengals-49ers, and Browns-Seahawks, and chances are at least one will be a total rout.

NFL Week 7 Predictions: Take the Over Edition

October 21, 2023October 21, 2023 ~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

It’s not that the NFL’s Week 7 schedule is filled with great games, but I like it because each time slot has something that could be really good on Sunday. Lions-Ravens highlights 1 p.m., Chargers-Chiefs is my favorite division rivalry to watch this decade in the 4:25 slot, and the Sunday night game might finally be a great one with the Dolphins taking on the Eagles. If that game doesn’t go over 50 points, I’ll be surprised (and disappointed).

That’s my other talking point this week in that I expect it to be a good week for overs. Why? Last week was incredible for unders with a 12-2-1 record. This was similar to Week 1 when the under was 12-4. What happened in Week 2? The over was 13-3. It’s an up-and-down league, especially this year.

We already saw a taste of this Thursday night when the Jaguars beat the Saints 31-24, the first over to hit in New Orleans’ last 13 games. You still have to play the matchups, but when in doubt, think over this week.

This Week’s Articles:

Patrick Mahomes Through 100 Starts: The Best Quarterback Ever? – A deep dive into Mahomes after 100 starts, where he stacks up historically, and if he’ll be adding any more hardware this season.

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 7 – I went a little wild with the parlays but I feel good about these games.
Computer Picks (BMR)
Computer Picks (OT)
Prime-Time Picks (BMR)
Prime-Time Picks (OT)
Upset Alert: Dolphins over Eagles – I go over my research into how Jalen Hurts is 0-7 against 10+ win teams with top 15 QBs in QBR (Miami should qualify this year; Tua better not leave this game injured)
Player Props (BMR)
Player Props (OT)
Best Bets (OT)

NFL Week 7 Predictions

Honestly, I don’t know why I backed the Saints on Thursday night. I had Jaguars +3 early in the week if you click on my prime-time picks above, so I don’t know what made me change it. Drew Brees wasn’t walking out that tunnel on Thursday night. It was Derek Carr with more interest in throwing to Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill than his trio of wide receivers.

Did I pick 7/13 underdogs to cover and 5 to win outright? That’s what happens when so many teams look evenly matched and few teams stand out above the pack.

Wouldn’t it be such a #RandomNFL thing for the Browns to beat the 49ers with P.J. Walker but lose to the Colts with Deshaun Watson back? I almost picked it outright, but we’ll go with an Indy cover. The Colts join the Dolphins and Lions as the only teams to score 20 points in every game this season. Cleveland’s defense is awesome but it’s not the 1985 Bears or 2000 Ravens.

I like the Giants to blitz and sack Sam Howell a lot to push him closer to 100 sacks this year.

I think there’s real value in picking Mac Jones to go way under his passing yards in this game or the next as the Patriots are probably going to be 1-7 after playing Buffalo and Miami, and he is getting benched for Malik Cunningham any quarter now.

Tyson Bagent vs. Brian Hoyer is the most "Toughest kid in school fights his shop teacher" game in NFL history. https://t.co/eEggWq7MWv pic.twitter.com/5tJRILsjrC
— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) October 20, 2023

I’m staying far away from that CHI-LV game. Check that, I’ll bet on Tyson Bagent to score a TD (+700), but that’s about it.

I think Lions can nip the Ravens in the 4Q in a 3-point game in Baltimore. Looking forward to that one. I have Jahmyr Gibbs scoring his first NFL TD.

I have Cooper Kupp dominating the Steelers with over 100 yards and a TD.

After all the criticism over Geno Smith this past week, I think he has a big game and Seahawks win easily.

I have a lot of KC-LAC research in the links above. I expect another very good game between these two. I have Rashee Rice going over with a TD. Kelce has to score a TD on National Tight Ends Day, right? He had 3 in his last game against the Chargers. Gerald Everett might even redeem himself after last year’s pick-6 disaster when he was winded in KC.

I picked the Broncos to intercept Jordan Love and finally get a home win under Sean Payton (0-3).

Already wrote my Miami upset pick in the above link, and I think the 49ers bounce back with a comfortable win over Kirk Cousins on a Monday night without Justin Jefferson.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 6

October 16, 2023 ~ Scott ~ 15 Comments

You know it was a crazy day in the NFL when the only teams to blow a double-digit lead were the last undefeated teams (49ers and Eagles) and the only winless team (Panthers). To top it off, the Bills had the largest point spread (-15.5) of any team this season, and they were a yard away from losing to the Giants at home on Sunday night.

But winning ugly is still a lot better than the alternative of losing dumb. There was a lot of bad football played this Sunday, and it is looking like this will be a season similar to 2021 where there are no truly great teams. That’s how you end up with the Titans as a No. 1 seed, a default MVP because they don’t know who else to give it to (Aaron Rodgers), and the only Super Bowl ever without any top 3 seeds (Bengals and Rams were both No. 4 seeds).

You just cannot trust these teams anymore, and a big part of the problem is on the offensive side of the ball. Monday night pending, a whopping 8 teams won this week without scoring more than 20 points – tied for the most in any week in the 32-team era since 2002. That may have been 9 teams if the Raiders didn’t get a safety against the Patriots to finally break 20 points this year.

The only other times this happened in 8 games was in Week 1 of the 2007 and 2010 seasons and Week 3 of the 2011 season. Those were all 16-game slates too while we had 14 games this week (15th on Monday), so it is the highest rate of winners scoring under 21 points in a week in the NFL regular season since Week 5 of the 1999 season when 9-of-14 games were won with fewer than 21 points. That week ended with the Jets and Rick Mirer losing 16-6 to the Jaguars on Monday night, so let’s hope Cowboys-Chargers has higher standards than that.

There were 10 games with a comeback opportunity, though only 3 were successful. They just so happened to be the ones to knock the 49ers and Eagles from the ranks of the undefeated, and Buffalo was spared the embarrassment of losing as a 15.5-point favorite.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

49ers at Browns: If Brock Purdy Is Tom Brady, Then Jake Moody Is Billy Cundiff

Sunday in Cleveland was the kind of game that a lot of NFL fans wanted to see Brock Purdy deal with to see what he’s really made of. Everything had gone so smoothly for him. He was 13-0 when he threw 20 passes in a game and had a passer rating of at least 87.4 in all of them, a streak we may never see again to begin someone’s career.

Purdy had only trailed in the fourth quarter once in a game where he had both functioning elbows, and that was the Raiders game last year, a defense known for blowing games. There was only one other game that was tied in the fourth quarter, and that was the Dallas playoff game.

This was a major test of adversity as the 49ers were playing a very tough Cleveland defense on the road, there was a little rain, and Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey did not finish the game due to injuries.

Despite leading 10-0 early, the 49ers were down 13-10 in the fourth quarter, and Purdy’s accuracy was shot. He was getting hit, he threw his first interception of the season, he had a few drive-killing sacks, and he was going to have to pick himself up and have an answer for why he’s getting outplayed by Cleveland backup quarterback P.J. Walker.

But Walker lived dangerously in this one, and in fact, his 24.1 QBR was the worst by a winning quarterback in Week 6 and below Purdy’s final number (40.0). Walker threw a second interception and that was returned to the Cleveland 8 with 11:04 left. Jordan Mason immediately rushed for an 8-yard touchdown and the 49ers were back up 17-13. The Browns were held to a field goal, then the 49ers badly botched their drive to put the game away with Purdy getting called for grounding and throwing an incompletion on a drive that lasted 25 seconds. But with Walker throwing wildly and what looked like a 4th-and-10 on the way, it looked like the 49ers were going to survive.

A comeback and game-winning drive where your defense and running game did all the work to bail you out on your worst day, and you blew it in the four-minute offense? Damn, Purdy really is the new Tom Brady.

But there are so many reasons we’ll never see the LOAT again. For one, the NFL has gotten incredibly soft with hard hits, and the 49ers were hosed on a bad call on that 3rd-and-10 incompletion for what looked like a clean hit to the shoulder area. But because it was hard and looked like it hurt, out came the flag for unnecessary roughness, and instead of a 4th-and-10 with the game on the line, Cleveland had a fresh set of downs. It was a messy game with both teams having at least 12 penalties for over 105 yards each.

There was still work to be done, and Jerome Ford did much of it with runs of 14 and 22 yards. Walker didn’t actually gain any yards on this drive, which ended with a 29-yard field goal to put the Browns up 19-17 with 1:40 left.

That set the stage for Purdy, who was going to have to lean on Brandon Aiyuk. That’s where he went for a couple of completions for 33 yards, and the 49ers got conservative inside the 30, which is usually a no-no in this league.

Purdy spiked the ball with 9 seconds left, and you have to say he did his job. But just like his first game-winning drive attempt against the Raiders last year, his kicker failed him. Last year it was veteran Robbie Gould who missed a 41-yard field goal to win Purdy’s 4th start. Instead, it sent the game to overtime where the Raiders threw an interception, gifting Purdy a kneeldown and short field goal for his first game-winning drive.

This time it was rookie kicker Jake Moody, who the team used the 99th pick in the draft to get. Let’s just say this early legacy game for him did not go well as he was 9-for-9 coming into Sunday, but he missed twice in this game. The probable game winner was only a 41-yard kick, but Moody hooked it wide right, and the Browns (+9.5) survived for one of the biggest upsets this season.

It took 14 starts, but Purdy has his first legitimate loss in the NFL, and it came at the mercy of a kicker. Meanwhile, Brady started 381 games in his career and just once, in his 183rd start against the 2012 Cardinals, did he lose a game after a clutch field goal was missed.

Purdy’s hero growing up was Dan Marino, who lost 10 games in his career after a clutch field goal was missed. I’ve yet to ever find a quarterback with more than that (Drew Brees also had 10). Let’s hope Purdy doesn’t turn out like Marino in that regard or as someone who had his best title shots in his first two seasons.

But the 49ers looked awfully mortal in this game. Cleveland earned it on more merit than just getting a weak penalty and missed kick. The Browns beat the 49ers 334-215 in yards. Cleveland has allowed 1,002 yards in 5 games, the 3rd-best mark to start a season since 1970 behind only the 1971 Colts (836) and 1970 Vikings (945).

Thie historic defense got the best of the historic offense this time. Now you just have to hope Moody doesn’t let this crush his psyche because kickers are fragile like that.

Eagles at Jets: Down Goes the Other 5-0 Team in Inexplicable Fashion

I don’t think the Eagles had a second to gloat about the 49ers losing in Cleveland, because their game kicked off with the Jets before the 49ers’ game ended.

This was another shocker with a 5-0 team going down in the second half, but at least there was some precedent for this one. The Jets basically relied on their Week 1 blueprint against the Bills where the defense forces several takeaways from the quarterback, Garrett Wilson makes some plays, and Zach Wilson stays out of the way of the game-winning touchdown. Wilson took 5 sacks but the Jets avoided any turnovers.

Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts led his team in rushing (47 yards and another touchdown), but it was a very quiet day for his running backs (14 carries for 33 yards). Hurts also threw 3 interceptions, which is so unlike him.

The Eagles led 14-9 at halftime but never scored again. In the fourth quarter, Hurts threw a pick in New York territory, then Jake Elliott missed a 37-yard field goal with 8:13 left. But the Jets could not capitalize. Hurts had a chance to put the game away with a 3rd-and-9 conversion, but his third interception of the game was one of the worst of his career:

JALEN HURTS’ THIRD INTERCEPTION OF THE GAME!!! pic.twitter.com/Qs66rSdN5P
— Bookmakers Review (@BMRReviews) October 15, 2023

That set the Jets up 8 yards away from the end zone, and immediately Breece Hall scored as if the Eagles wanted him to. That’s kind of a bold decision in a 14-12 game as the Eagles had two timeouts to get the ball back with time for a field goal to win it, but I guess they figured maximizing time for a touchdown was their best shot. Not an easy decision.

Hurts had 1:46 and 2 timeouts to drive 75 yards for a touchdown, which is hard but doable. However, he did not get a single first down and the Eagles turned it over on downs after his 4th-and-8 pass was incomplete.

That formula of forcing 4 takeaways against the Eagles still works well in beating them. It happened twice last year by the Commanders and Cowboys. That’s the kind of crazy effort it usually takes to beat this team, but the Jets hung in there, protected the ball, and chipped away with field goals before getting the ultimate break with that last pick.

It’s not a formula you can sustain, but the Jets are 3-3 going into the bye, and frankly I thought that was the best-case scenario with this early schedule if the team had Aaron Rodgers. The schedule will get easier, and in this sea of mediocrity engulfing the AFC this year, the Jets still have a shot.

Giants at Bills: WTF?

The Bills (4-2) win this week’s award for “Win That Felt Most Like a Loss.” Buffalo came dangerously close to losing to the lowly Giants despite being favored by 15.5 on Sunday night in another barnburner for island games this year with its 14-9 final.

Maybe the spread was wacky, but this was a Buffalo team that recently won 3 games in a row by 28+ points each, and a New York team starting Tyrod Taylor that has been awful in basically every half but one (Arizona) this season.

But it was a game that makes you ask many questions.

Are the Giants better with Tyrod Taylor starting than Daniel Jones (neck)? Maybe so, but they still scored 9 points and botched the end of each half from the 1-yard line. They should have just kicked a field goal to end the first half instead of trying to run Saquon Barkley for a touchdown as time ran out on the Giants.

Did Barkley make the offense better in his return? Eh, he had 24 carries for 93 yards with a 34-yard run his longest play, and he caught 4-of-5 targets for a whopping 5 yards. That’s 98 yards on 29 plays, so that’s not very good, and they lost the confidence to go back to him with the game on the line on the last play, throwing incomplete to Darren Waller in the back of the end zone on a play that made zero use of Tyrod’s mobility. Some wanted a flag but I’m okay with not bailing out the high throw. It was already an untimed down to begin with after a penalty on Buffalo extended the game.

Is the Buffalo offense okay? We know the defense has most of the injuries, but that doesn’t excuse why the Bills were scoreless at home going into the fourth quarter against the Giants. Josh Allen had a bit of Stefon Diggs tunnel vision on the night as Diggs had 100 of Allen’s 169 passing yards. Tyler Bass did not help with a couple of missed field goals, but when push came to shove, the Bills responded in the fourth quarter with a couple of nice touchdown passes from Allen to two of his more unheralded/unknown receivers (Deonte Harty and Quintin Morris).

But the Bills were lucky to be playing the Giants, the team that needed 8 yards and saw Tyrod throwing passes 38 and 47 yards in the air to end a drive on downs with 1:45 left. But that didn’t end the game as Allen threw an incomplete pass on a 3rd down and Bass missed a 53-yard field goal with 1:25 left that would have gave Buffalo a nice cushion at 17-9.

That made the long 14-play march possible to end the game, and the Giants were just one yard, one better play call away from pulling off this upset. Instead, the Giants are who we thought they were, taking their record in prime time to 5-25 (.167) since 2017.

Lions at Buccaneers: Better Team Won

I’m not sure these teams are as good as their 1-loss records suggested going into Week 6, but I do know the better team won this game. Even though the Lions lost David Montgomery to an injury and had no running game, Jared Goff (353 yards and 2 touchdowns) played much better than Baker Mayfield, who failed to lead a touchdown drive.

It was just some of the little things in this game that showed why Detroit is better.

Mayfield had a pass tipped and intercepted deep in his own end that turned into a field goal to start the scoring for Detroit. Meanwhile, Goff had a few passes tipped that fell harmlessly to the ground.
On a 3rd-and-12, Mike Evans had an awful drop on what would have been a conversion for Tampa Bay. In the third quarter, Evans also negated a 3rd-and-1 with a push off that was flagged for offensive pass interference.
On a 3rd-and-13, Amon-Ra St. Brown took a screen pass and got an incredible block from Craig Reynolds to free him up for the game’s first touchdown.
Detroit’s other touchdown pass saw incredible adjustment to the ball from Jameson Williams for a 45-yard score.

The Lions are 5-1 with a +55 scoring differential. It hasn’t been this good for the team since 2011 (5-1, +64), and even that felt less impressive than this since Green Bay was undefeated at that moment and the defending champion.

This is finally Detroit’s year in the NFC North, and if Sunday is any indication, maybe the whole NFC if the Lions can stay healthy and improve as the season goes on.

Colts at Jaguars: The Streak Continues

I’m not sure why, but the Colts seemingly lose their shit every time they go down to Jacksonville where they have not won since 2014. This streak has gone on through several coaches and quarterbacks now.

Sunday was easily the worst performance yet by the Shane Steichen-coached Colts, and Gardner Minshew was a mess with 4 turnovers (3 interceptions, 1 lost fumble). The mistakes boosted the Jaguars to 37 points even though Calvin Ridley was held to 30 yards, Trevor Lawrence passed for 181 yards with 3 sacks, and the running game averaged 2.9 yards per carry.

Like I said, the Colts might as well book these Jacksonville games in the Bermuda Triangle instead of Duval County. It looked like it might actually start out as a legit, heavyweight fight with the Jaguars following a long Indy field goal drive with a long touchdown drive that went into the second quarter.

But that interesting start was the end of the efficiency as Josh Allen forced Minshew to fumble on the next snap, and the Jaguars turned that into a 22-yard touchdown run by Travis Etienne. The Colts continued to shoot themselves in the foot, and they trailed 31-6 in the fourth quarter.

There was a rally attempt with the Colts getting a touchdown (31-13) and a Lawrence interception, but I feel like they should have kicked a field goal on 4th-and-5 at the 15 with 11:06 left. Just keep the game going and get it to 2 possessions. But Minshew threw another pick. Even then, the Jaguars went three-and-out and the Colts got a touchdown to make it 31-20, but a long kick return took a lot out of Indy, which gave up a cheap field goal (34-20) before the Colts went 4-and-out (cue another cheap field goal).

With Minshew a mess and Anthony Richardson considering season-ending surgery for his shoulder, it’s looking like Jacksonville (4-2) may have just ended another season for the Colts (3-3).

Seahawks at Bengals: Looked Like a Cincinnati Playoff Game

If you don’t understand the header, let’s do a quick refresher on what a playoff game looks like in the Zac Taylor-Joe Burrow era in Cincinnati.

There have been 7 playoff games, and despite the 5-2 record, the Bengals have only gotten anywhere from 17-to-27 points from the offense in each game.
The offense has only contributed one touchdown in the fourth quarter of these games.
Burrow has passed for 270 yards or fewer in 6-of-7 games.
Only the 27-10 win in Buffalo last year was decided by more than one possession.
In 4 games, the Cincinnati defense has forced a crucial turnover in the fourth quarter or overtime.

With Seattle coming in as a formidable opponent, this looked like it might be a great shootout with both offenses scoring touchdowns on their opening drives. But it was a struggle from there with the Seahawks only adding a pair of field goals on their final 10 drives. After starting the game with back-to-back touchdowns, the Bengals would have gone scoreless on their final 8 drives if not for a 0-yard field goal in the fourth quarter that was set up by a Geno Smith interception.

Burrow, who only had 185 passing yards, threw 3 straight incompletions before Evan McPherson made a 52-yard field goal to make it 17-13 and conclude the scoring with 11:47 to play. Seattle dominated in yardage (381-214), but between 4 sacks and 2 picks for Smith, the offense kept getting turned away in scoring territory.

Smith had four possessions in the fourth quarter alone and was unable to get points on any of them. Despite D.K. Metcalf (30) and Tyler Lockett (36) each having a 30-yard completion in the final six minutes on two different drives, the Seahawks could not break through in the red zone.

That duo of Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard made sure Geno was stopped with sacks on 1st-and-goal from the 7 and 4th-and-goal from the 6 with 2:03 left. After getting the ball back and getting quickly to the Cincinnati 11 after Lockett’s big catch, the Seahawks again looked frazzled. Smith threw incomplete on 3rd-and-8, and then again under pressure on 4th-and-ballgame with 35 seconds left to end it.

The Bengals are now 3-0 against the NFC West and 0-3 against AFC teams this year. Are they a contender again? It’s hard to say, but they at least picked a good week to win unimpressively when other contenders either lost or looked worse against worse competition.

But seeing Smith repeatedly get turned away in the fourth quarter was a throwback to what has become the typical Cincinnati playoff game for this team. Burrow had some more Fran Tarkenton-esque scrambles in this game that I think can put the calf concerns to rest, but that’s not to say the offense is back on track. Ja’Marr Chase, who had all 3 of the team’s plays that gained more than 11 yards, may be on track, but the rest of the offense has some catching up to do.

Ravens vs. Titans: London Snoozer

Not a lot to say about the last London game of the year as the Ravens held on for a 24-16 win. You had to expect a good Baltimore start after how sloppy things were last week in Pittsburgh. Zay Flowers finally caught his first NFL touchdown.

Derrick Henry hit a long run for 63 yards, but the Titans once again failed to see their offense travel. While technically the home team in this one, the Titans are 0-4 outside of Nashville this year and have not scored more than 16 points in any of those games.

Ryan Tannehill only passed for 76 yards in 3 quarters, but the Titans were cooked with him getting carted off. Malik Willis is not a legitimate quarterback, and I would be concerned as a fan that rookie Will Levis was not the No. 2 quarterback. Willis came into this game with only a 21-13 deficit in the fourth quarter, and we know these Ravens blow leads, but Willis has a bad habit of holding onto the ball too long.

A pair of Willis scrambles led to a punt, the Ravens tacked on a field goal to make it 24-13 with 4:16 left, then it was time for one of the saddest field goal drives you’ll ever see as Baltimore was flagged 4 times and the Titans also had a 5th penalty called. Willis somehow took 5 sacks on the drive and 4 of them still counted as only 1 was voided by a Baltimore penalty. That’s how you end up wasting 1st-and-goal from the 1, but I’m not sure if kicking the field goal on 3rd-and-goal from the 20 was the right call with 41 seconds left. Things were so bleak that you might as well try for the touchdown that close.

What’s Willis going to do from midfield with 35 seconds left if the onside kick was recovered? Take 3 more sacks? But the onside kick was free of drama and the game ended with the Ravens moving back to first place with a 4-2 record. We’ll see what the injury is for Tannehill, but things are slipping away early for the Titans (2-4), who have a bye week.

Panthers at Dolphins: The Team Who Scores, the Team Who Loses

The Panthers jumped out to a 14-0 lead, scored a late pick-six, and they still lost by 21 points to fall to 0-6.

This team feels like a money laundering scheme that involves Adam Thielen catches. He’s the only part of the team that goes off consistently as he had another 11 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown.

But the Miami offense is just too good for opponents like this. Even after going three-and-out twice in the first quarter, the Dolphins scored 5 touchdowns on their next 6 drives with Tyreek Hill dominating deep (163 yards), and Raheem Mostert rushed for 115 yards and scored 3 more touchdowns with De’Von Achane out.

With the Eagles next week and the Week 9 game in Germany with Kansas City looming, I can’t wait to see how Miami does against last year’s Super Bowl teams. Carolina is not the litmus test.

Commanders at Falcons: Ridder the Enigma

The good news: Desmond Ridder stacked 300-yard passing games after he had the best game of his career last week against Houston. The bad news: Ridder threw 3 interceptions in this 24-16 home loss that may have been the worst game of his career.

Sam Howell took another 5 sacks and the Washington running game only averaged 3.3 yards per carry on the way to 193 total yards of offense, so it was not the defense that lost this game for Atlanta. Washington had an 11-yard touchdown drive after a long punt return, and in the third quarter, Washington had a 24-yard touchdown drive after Ridder was picked on a great diving read by Kyle Fuller.

But Washington never scored again, bringing Atlanta to 15 straight games without allowing more than 25 points, the longest streak in the NFL since the 2013-14 49ers (17 games).

The Falcons were able to get one touchdown, missed the 2-point conversion, but it felt like a one-score game with Atlanta unable to do anything for a solid hour. There were numerous chances, including one where a legit roughing the passer call for Ridder wiped out a fumble. That led to a drive that reached the 2-yard line, but Ridder ended up throwing an interception in the end zone with 5:11 left.

The next chance was a quick 4-and-out, then the final drive ended with Ridder’s third interception in desperate times with 26 seconds left after the Falcons reached the Washington 34.

Rough days like this will happen to the best of them, but it sure is weird to see an Atlanta team let down by its offense while the defense was more than serviceable, especially in the fourth quarter.

Patriots at Raiders: Belichick Really Can’t Beat McDaniels

You have to admit it’s pretty amusing that Bill Belichick is 0-3 against Josh McDaniels as a head coach. Now, McDaniels has had home-field advantage for every game, he’s had the better quarterback in the last two games in Vegas, and they have all been one-score games where a turnover (or something on the order of one) killed the Patriots at the end.

This one went McDaniels’ way again even after Jimmy Garoppolo left with a back injury that was serious enough to land him at the local hospital. But Brian Hoyer did a respectable job in his place (6-of-10 for 102 yards), and that means it was two former New England quarterbacks who helped drop the Patriots to 1-5.

At least it was close this week. Mac Jones had an uneven game that will be hard to analyze. He did throw another terrible interception this week, but then he also threw one of the best passes in his career on a 2nd-and-11 deep in his own end with a 19-17 deficit. DeVante Parker dropped it. The drop wasn’t overly egregious and it wasn’t a simple play, but you have to make one like that for your team. You have to wonder why this team settled for a poor man’s DeAndre Hopkins when they could have had the real thing this year. Hopkins makes that catch.

After an inexcusable delay of game – Patriots were sloppy again this week – made it 3rd-and-15, Jones was swarmed in his end zone and Maxx Crosby was there on the sack for a safety.

What an awful way to blow a cover as the Patriots were +2.5. Their only hope was recovering an onside kick on the free kick, but that didn’t work, and the game was over with the Raiders winning 21-17.

It is also amusing that it took a safety to get the Raiders (3-3) to 20 points for the first time all season. But the Patriots had no sacks on defense, and while they got their first takeaway since Week 2, it was a fluky interception on a deflected pass that wasn’t Garoppolo’s fault.

The better team won, and dare I say, the better coach when these two meet up won again.

Saints at Texans: Carr (Repeatedly) Fails First GWD Attempt in New Orleans

One thing I got right about the 2023 Saints is that they are providing Derek Carr with the best defense of his career. The Saints finally became the first team to intercept rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, but they unfortunately fumbled it right back to him on the play in the first quarter, and the Texans scored a touchdown on that drive to boot.

But the Texans only put up one field goal after halftime, so this game was in Derek Carr’s wheelhouse for another fourth-quarter comeback. This was actually his first attempt of the season as he was injured in the Green Bay loss when the Saints blew a 17-0 lead in the final quarter.

This was supposed to be the spot where Carr would make his mark in New Orleans, but instead, the Saints went scoreless on their last 3 drives in a 20-13 game:

Kicker Blake Grupe picked a bad time to have the shortest miss of his season from 29 yards out with 11:07 left. Remember, he’s the kicker who missed from 46 yards to win the game in Green Bay.
On a 4th-and-4 at the Houston 15, Carr checked down to Alvin Kamara in the backfield on a play that required a Hulk-like effort to break tackles. Kamara came up short and the Saints turned it over on downs with 4:31 left.
Needing to go 85 yards in the final 2:41, Carr got to the Houston 24 before throwing 4 incompletions, including a pick on fourth down just shy of the end zone on a pass intended for Michael Thomas (still without a touchdown this year) with 16 seconds left.

The Saints are 3-3 and not in any real danger with the entire NFC South losing on Sunday. But this team has not scored more than 20 points in 5-of-6 games this year. The Carr-led offense, despite some solid talent at the skill players, is not working out. It also has been outperformed by a Houston offense with a rookie quarterback and some unheralded receivers that had lower expectations this year.

Carr underachieving doesn’t necessarily surprise me, but I thought he’d be better than this.

Vikings at Bears: Hoodwinked, Bamboozled, Led Astray

The Bears (+3) were my upset pick for the week, so this dud at home was a bummer. I knew Justin Fields was out of games against the Washington and Denver defenses, but I did not think highly of Minnesota’s defense either. Naturally, Fields threw for 58 yards on 10 throws and took 4 sacks before leaving the game with a dislocated thumb on his throwing hand.

When you have a quarterback you know is a high injury risk, how do you not do more at backup quarterback than Tyson Bagent?

The Bears have one of the highest risk for injury QB1s in the league, and their backup solution is someone who looks like he auditioned for We Need to Talk About Kevin? pic.twitter.com/XD41pJFInw
— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) October 15, 2023

On the undrafted rookie’s second dropback, he was strip-sacked, and the Vikings returned it for a 43-yard touchdown to take a 19-6 lead in the third quarter. But the Vikings did not do a good job of putting the game away without Justin Jefferson available.

It looked like Bagent might lead a 13-point comeback in the fourth quarter after he ran in his first NFL touchdown with 7:46 left. The Vikings went three-and-out after barely burning a minute off the clock. The Bears were slow rolling their drive down the field with the running game featured, but eventually, Bagent had to throw.

Correction: Chicago chose to throw deep for D.J. Moore just shy of the 2-minute warning in a spot that would have been fine for another run. No need to rush. Bagent badly underthrew the pass and it was intercepted by Minnesota. The Bears had all their timeouts, but after getting one first down, Minnesota was able to run out the rest of the clock with Chicago never getting another chance.

The Vikings (2-4) are still a bad team, but the Bears (1-5) are the worst in the NFC North. I won’t drink the Kool-Aid again this year.

Cardinals at Rams: Cooper Kupp Still Top Dog

Tyreek Hill has an amazing highlight reel of big plays and still has top-end speed. Justin Jefferson is doing incredible things for a young receiver. But for my money, Cooper Kupp is still the best all-around wide receiver in the league right now. No one is more consistent at producing in any matchup, and he does it at every level of the field. Only durability is a knock on him.

But one team that did have his number was Arizona. Kupp played in 31 games since 2021 and the only 4 games where he was held under 79 yards were all against Arizona. But that was a different coaching staff and roster.

Against Jonathan Gannon’s no-name defense, Kupp was dominant again with 148 yards and his first touchdown of 2023. Matthew Stafford only had 78 yards to his other receivers in the game. But the Rams also ran the ball very well with 179 yards.

Despite those big performances and the final score (26-9), this was a 16-9 game to start the fourth quarter with the Cardinals 12 yards away from the end zone. But Joshua Dobbs was intercepted on that play, and the Rams turned that into a long touchdown drive that was almost ruled a fumble through the end zone. But that was definitely a touchdown.

The Rams added a field goal after a strip-sack of Dobbs, so the turnovers have caught up with this offense, and the thin roster made thinner by injuries is starting to get exposed on a weekly basis.

Now we remember why the Cardinals were the favorites to land the No. 1 pick.

Next week: Maybe what this season needs is another classic Herbert-Mahomes matchup in Week 7. It would be even better if the Chargers beat Dallas on Monday night but I’m not so sure about that one. Early on Sunday, what are we getting excited about? Cleveland eating Gardner Minshew for lunch? The Raiders in Chicago after Garoppolo and Fields left Sunday’s games injured? No, it’s Lions-Ravens as the highlight of the 1 p.m. slot. We’ll see which Baltimore team shows up. Sunday night actually nailed it for a change with Dolphins-Eagles. Plenty of intrigue as Philadelphia’s sloppy play caught up to them in a loss, and we have never seen the Hurts-era Eagles beat a good team with a top quarterback like the Dolphins have going right now.

NFL Week 6 Predictions: Bishop Sycamore QBs Edition

October 14, 2023 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It’s a bit early in the NFL season for teams to be turning to P.J. Walker and Tyrod Taylor as huge underdogs, but here we are. We’re one quarterback injury in Cleveland away from a Bishop Sycamore high school QB getting the call next, assuming Deshaun Watson doesn’t feel like playing contact football anymore.

Speaking of Bishop Sycamore, what the hell kind of fraudulent performance was that on Thursday by Sean Payton, Russell Wilson, and the Denver Broncos? Wilson didn’t even break 100 passing yards in the 19-8 loss, a pathetic score all around in one of the worst games I’ve seen this season.

But where are the good games in this 2023 season? I look at the Week 6 schedule and see a serious lack of greatness. You know things are rough when we’re trying to hype up Gardner Minshew going back to Jacksonville with the Colts for a big AFC South game, or that the Buccaneers and Lions have 1 loss each. I’d put my money on Cowboys-Chargers being the best game to close the week, but Monday night is where offense goes to die this year. Don’t fail me now, Brandon Staley.

Someone asked me this week if comebacks and close games are down, and compared to last year, they definitely are through Week 5:

2023: 43 of 78 games were close (55.1%), 24 decided by 4Q/OT score
2022: 55 of 80 games (68.8%), 36 decided by 4Q/OT score
2021: 40 of 80 games (50.0%), 28 decided by 4Q/OT score
2020: 44 of 77 games were close (57.1%), 28 decided by 4Q/OT score

The numbers weren’t as poor as I thought they’d be compared to recent years, but they do pale in comparison to what happened in 2022. I think the perception being strong here is the way 2022 played out, and that 2020 season was also the highest scoring ever during the pandemic without crowds.

Bad prime-time games this year are another factor. It just seems like we’ve sat around and watched a lot of ugly, one-sided football when it comes to those island games. And go figure, the New York Giants are back in action this Sunday night as a 15.5-point underdog.

This week’s articles

Why It’s Over for Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots – This week’s deep dive recapped how the Patriots’ dynasty met its demise, and why the Patriots will never be a real contender again with Bill Belichick as head coach.
Upset Alert: Bears over Vikings
Best Bets (OT)
Computer Picks (BMR)
Computer Picks (OT)
Prime-Time Picks (BMR)
Prime-Time Picks (OT)
Player Props (BMR)
Player Props (OT)

NFL Week 6 Predictions

Not only did the Broncos fail to cover on Thursday night, but it was also a terrible game to watch as the Chiefs seemed to be toying with them, calling weird trick plays and things that just didn’t work well. Despite that, the Broncos still couldn’t capitalize in the 16th loss in a row to the Chiefs. The fifth win in a row for the Chiefs means Andy Reid has had a 5-game winning streak in all 11 seasons with the Chiefs, which is by far the best streak in the Super Bowl era.

Stat of the Day: Chiefs now have a 5-game winning streak in 11 straight regular seasons, by far the most in the Super Bowl era

Most consecutive seasons with a 5-game winning streak in SB era

1. 2013-2023 Chiefs (11)
2. 1989-1995 49ers (7)
2. 2003-2009 Colts (7)
4. 1970-1975…
— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) October 13, 2023

Yeah, I can’t see myself getting up early for Ravens-Titans.

For a lot of these games, I like margin bets better than spread bets (ATL by 1-13, CHI by 1-13, JAX by 1-13, HOU by 1-13, and BUF by 14+).

Two games I’m largely avoiding are SEA-CIN and LV-NE. I just can’t figure out what the Bengals are doing week to week, and that is a early start after a long trip for the Seahawks. Watching Belichick fall to 0-3 against Josh McDaniels would be hilarious and very much a possibility unless Jimmy Garoppolo’s horrible interception rate continues. The Patriots haven’t had a takeaway since Week 2 so you know they’re due.

With the Bucs having that lousy performance against the Eagles and a bye week, I feel like we’ve seen less of them than necessary to make any sound judgment of where they’re at this year. I’ll trust the Lions in that one.

Something to keep an eye on in LAR-ARI is to see if Jonathan Gannon’s defense can shut down Cooper Kupp the way Arizona did in the Kingsbury era. Kupp has had 79+ receiving yards in 27 of his last 31 games. The only 4 games he was under that mark were all against the Cardinals.

Finally, I am looking forward to Monday night. I think it sets up well to be a game where the Chargers look great early with Kellen Moore taking it to his old team, then the collapse begins. Dak Prescott redeems himself with a big night to CeeDee Lamb, and the Cowboys win by 1-4 points in their first true close game of the season.

This is where they draw some of us back in, but you know how it’ll end in January.