The calendar has moved to October, so we’re already at Week 4 in this NFL season. This is when shit gets real as some of these teams with poor starts could effectively be an afterthought tomorrow night if they fall to 0-4. We’re looking at the Chargers and Texans more than anyone, and don’t forget the Buccaneers are also 0-3 with a rookie quarterback (Jalon Daniels) about to start.
The only team in the Super Bowl era to start 0-4 and still make the playoffs was the 1992 San Diego Chargers, who turned an 0-4 start into an 11-5 finish and even won a playoff game. Maybe things are different now with 17 games and a third wild card spot, but 0-4 is a huge hole to dig from, and those teams have their hands full tomorrow with the Chargers facing Seattle off a loss, and the Texans have to outscore Dallas.
But you also get some huge divisional games as the Chiefs and Raiders battle for first place, the first time both teams were ever 3-0 when meeting in that rivalry dating back to 1960. If you argue no game with Derek Carr was ever truly a big game, then this is the biggest game for the Raiders since Super Bowl 37. A chance for the Raiders to show they’re legit as 84.7% (111 of 131) teams to start 4-0 since 1978 made the playoffs that year. Also a chance for the Chiefs to showcase they’re back to being the Super Bowl contender in the AFC. Not ‘a’ contender; the contender as they need to play smart and avoid the stupid mistakes they had in road losses last year like Jacksonville and Dallas.
Patriots vs. Bills is another division game where you damn near could see Buffalo mentally wrap up the division by Week 4 if they drop the Patriots to 1-3 here. That’d be a huge early lead in reclaiming the AFC East. Another tough opponent for The Schedule as the league really juiced up the first four games for New England this year. I’d argue they played more tough games in Weeks 1-4 than all of the 2025 regular season. Or at least an equal number.
You also have the Rams taking on the Eagles, and Sean McVay is 0-4 against Nick Sirianni. For shame. But there’s a lot of big-name injuries with that game, and one of those teams is about to start a losing streak after both were favored to win their divisions this year. The Rams are even in danger of starting 1-3 while the Browns are 3-1 after trading them Myles Garrett.
Crazy ass league. But it’s still early, though Sunday is getting late early for some of these teams who really need a win.
NFL Week 4 Predictions
JFC, Week 3 might have been my worst picks of all time as I was 2-14 ATS. I know 7-9 SU isn’t my worst week, but in a week where most games were close in the fourth quarter, I just kept coming out on the wrong side of things. But after picking Cleveland to win outright on Thursday, I’m already halfway to as many spread picks correct in Week 4.
IND-WAS: I can’t see myself getting up earlier than 11:30 AM for this one. But I think the Commanders always play well with Marcus Mariota for some reason, and they should feel energized after upsetting the Seahawks last week. I think they’ll get after Daniel Jones enough in this one to pull it out for the win.
TEN-BAL: Derrick Henry against his former team? Should be a good day for him. The Ravens need a blowout victory, and the Titans are the right kind of team to do it against as I just don’t see Cam Ward being able to keep up.
NYJ-CHI: Do teams really need to stick to the depth chart when it’s QB2 vs. QB3? I know you need to protect the ego of QB1, but I’m not sure when it comes to deciding between backups that you don’t just give Case Keenum another start after what he did on Monday night. But I was curious to see Tyson Bagent in Ben Johnson’s offense, and we’ll see if he can avoid being the QB who actually throws a pick to Aaron Glenn’s defense. But I think this could be a nail-biter. I’m still going to trust Johnson and the weapons for the Bears to score enough to cover even if it’s like a 24-20 final.
GB-TB: You never know what the rookie backup QB will do, and we’ve seen the Packers lose to Tommy DeVito before in prime time. But I’m still going to trust the Packers, with extra days off, to win this one against a Tampa Bay team that’s just been bad. I like Jalon Daniels to score a rushing TD though.
JAX-CIN: It wasn’t until Friday morning that I realized this game is in Cincy instead of Jacksonville. I’d probably take the Jags at home, but I think the Bengals get this one as they’re 4-0 against the Jaguars since 2020, and every game saw both teams score 20+ points. Don’t even be surprised if Joe Burrow improves his record to 2-34 when trailing in the final 8:00 as the Jaguars are one of the only teams that Zac Taylor’s crew, including games with Jake Browning at QB in 2023 and 2025, come through in the clutch for. I think Liam Coen’s offense can expose some things the Steelers did last week with this CIN D, but I still have some reservations about Trevor Lawrence in crunch time on the road.
NE-BUF: Might be an upset spot but the Patriots have some big defensive injuries, including Christian Gonzalez, and A.J. Brown is still out on offense. Could be a spot for TreVeyon Henderson to break one as he got the Bills twice for long touchdowns last year. But I still don’t trust the Patriots and the way they’re playing right now, so I’d pick the Bills to win by 7+ points.
ARI-NYG: The Cardinals haven’t shown a ton since beating the Chargers in Week 1. I think Harbaugh’s defense could succeed against a stationary Brissett, and I like Jameis to put up bigger numbers this week. I’ll take the Giants SU as the home dog.
DAL-HOU: I originally picked Dallas to win, but I see Nico Collins is back, and he changes the offense for Stroud, and he still gets a vulnerable Dallas defense. Out of desperation, the Texans find a way to get a win here.
LAR-PHI: It’s not good that it’s Week 4 and the Rams won’t have Aaron Donald or Myles Garrett against the team they haven’t been able to beat, and the team they blew a 19-point lead against last year. But when you swap Puka Nacua in for the Rams and DeVonta Smith OUT for the Eagles, I think that makes up the difference this time. I’ll take the Rams as I think they’ve shown flashes of great football while the Eagles struggled with the Titans and looked really bad against Case Keenum and the Bears on Monday.
MIA-MIN: Crazy 10.5-point spread when Justin Jefferson is out and the Vikings are getting so little out of the QB position. But I guess the Dolphins have been that bad even though they played the 49ers and Chiefs tough for 2-3 quarters before losing big. Still, I’m absolutely taking Miami to cover, and if I was the OC, I’d anticipate Brian Flores blitzing and counter with some designed runs and draws for Malik Willis. I’m playing his rushing props in this one (nothing else though).
LAC-SEA: Honestly, who knows? The Chargers blew a game in Buffalo despite 5 takeaways, and were dog shit at home to the Cards and Raiders. The Seahawks had that 10-point comeback against New England with Drew Lock, but they lost to Washington with Darnold back. I’m just going to trust the better defense and the home team to get it done. JSN is on fire too.
DEN-SF: Bo Nix vs. a Shanahan team in a close game? Not ideal, but I think the 49ers are playing elite offense and will either put it out of reach, or Purdy will come through late and they win this one by 3+. Decent game.
KC-LV: I keep bringing up 2025 Jacksonville and Dallas for the Chiefs, but I think this one plays out more like 2024 Carolina where they establish they’re the better team early. But the Raiders with Bowers back find enough holes on the defense to tie it late behind Cousins, and Mahomes has to go get a walk-off FG in maybe his favorite stadium to play. Chiefs win 30-27, a classic KC win without a cover.
DET-CAR: All the great games this week and they picked this one for SNF? Could easily see some Bryce Young magic in the 4Q, but I’m going with the Lions by a FG. Corners out for Carolina is too much to overcome in the end.
NO-ATL: I really think the winner of this game could go on to win the NFC South. I like some of what the Saints do with Shough, but I still like the talent around Penix more, and I trust Stefanski a little more than Kellen Moore at the moment. Tough atmosphere in the Superdome, but I’m going with Atlanta.
