With a month of the 2026 NFL season in the books, the last two weeks have really pushed this season into ultra-competitive territory as Week 4 was the second week in a row 12 games had a comeback opportunity in the fourth quarter.
That marks 39 of the first 63 games to have one (61.9%), and that percentage would be the highest season since 2011 if it stood. The last two seasons were both barely over 56% of the games featuring a comeback opportunity.
We’re also on pace for just over 55 double-digit comebacks from any point in the game, which would be a single-season record. We’re on pace for almost 81 blown leads (or comeback wins) in the fourth quarter, which would also be in record territory. Finally, the average margin of victory is 10.1 points, which would be the second lowest in history behind only 2022 (9.8).
It’s a competitive season where we may lack great teams again. That might just be the new norm in today’s sports with injuries playing a big factor. Still, it’s quite wild to see the Texans, Chargers, and Buccaneers all 0-4 despite favorable playoff odds going into the season.
It’s not like they haven’t been competitive:
- The Texans have blown three fourth-quarter leads while no other team has more than one.
- The Chargers are the only team that is 0-4 at 4QC/GWD opportunities.
- The Chargers (0-4), Texans (0-3), and Buccaneers (0-3) are the only three teams who are 0-3 or worse at 4QC/GWD opportunities this season.
Also, I have to point out that Sunday was a particularly nice day for me after the two viral tweets I had last week about Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.
They both were in a position to make me look bad on Sunday, but they just reinforced my stances with Burrow falling to 1-35 when trailing in the final 8:00, and Allen royally blew a game against the Patriots with a game-ending interception he didn’t need to force.
Meanwhile, we start our recaps in Las Vegas in the battle of 3-0 teams with Patrick Mahomes tying another NFL record.
This season in NFL Stat Oddity:
Chiefs at Raiders: Game of the Week
Every once in a while, I can get a game exactly right as I had the Chiefs winning a 30-27 game as they did in the big battle of 3-0 teams.
But it was still a confidence-building game for the Raiders as they hung in there with the Chiefs all day, and while they didn’t win like rookie coach Klint Kubiak predicted at halftime, they didn’t embarrass themselves like the Raiders often did in anything resembling a big game in the Derek Carr era. This team does feel different, and they were feasting on Kansas City’s defense with tight ends with almost no help from their wide receivers.
Maybe the Chiefs need to learn something from that as Sunday was a bit of a pyrrhic victory. They lost Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton, their two best wide receivers, though it sounds like Rice could be back after the bye, and Thornton might be able to give it a go if there’s a deep playoff run. But that’s a big problem going forward as you lose the only deep threat who has played so great with Mahomes. Get Tyreek Hill on Line 1.
But the Chiefs also exposed Mahomes to plenty more hits with two backups on the left side of the line after Andy Reid benched Kingsley Suamataia for personal reasons. The result was a game where Mahomes completed just 15-of-30 passes with three throwaways and two sacks. Maxx Crosby had five quarterback hits by himself.
Meanwhile, Kansas City’s defense hasn’t had a sack since the third quarter of Week 1, and they nearly blew an 11-point lead in the final 3:02. The Chiefs winning games this way is similar to 2022 or 2024, but you can’t cover up these flaws in the offensive line, wide receivers, and pass rush against better opponents, which are coming.
Right now, this team is basically succeeding on Mahomes making timely throws and Kenneth Walker breaking tackles on excellent runs because the run blocking just isn’t there. The bye actually comes at a good time to figure out how to adjust going forward.
It’s a nice 4-0 start and the rest of the NFL doesn’t look particularly strong, so you don’t want to waste the opportunity of a potential Super Bowl season here. But I just think the limited WR room combined with trying to do more play-action passing behind this line is not a great combination for keeping Mahomes upright for the long term this year.
Still, he put the team ahead twice in the fourth quarter on Sunday, giving him a 12th multiple game-winning drive (mGWD), tied with Ben Roethlisberger now for the most in NFL history.
Rams at Eagles: Possibly a Season-Saving Comeback
Come January or February, we could be looking back at this game as the turning point of the season. The Rams didn’t have Myles Garrett or Aaron Donald on defense. The Eagles didn’t have Lane Johnson, Dallas Goedert, or DeVonta Smith, and they lost Saquon Barkley early in this one.
Still, the Eagles led 20-10 with the ball at the Rams’ 2 with half a quarter left. They had a chance to put this team down to 1-3, and Nick Sirianni would have been 5-0 against Sean McVay.
And yet the Eagles lost this game at home in a comeback that was in some ways more shocking than the 19-point lead the Eagles erased against the Rams a year ago. The Eagles had two cracks from the 2-yard line to make this a 17-point game, which is exactly why you go for it there instead of kicking the field goal to make it 23-10, or a two-score game staying a two-score game. I don’t fault the decision, I just didn’t care for the play calls as neither worked.
Still, the Rams had 98 yards to go and Matthew Stafford wasn’t sharp on the day. But he hit some big throws, and a penalty helped the Rams get to the red zone where they finished off the 98-yard match with a Kyren Williams touchdown to make it 20-17 with 3:59 left.
The Eagles went three-and-out, which is what plagued them in 2025, and they’re next to last in that category in 2026 despite the coordinator change. Still, you could at least argue the injuries are killing them at the moment, but something is broken with their offensive system.
Stafford got the ball back, drove the team back into the red zone, and they weren’t relying on no stinkin’ kicker again this year. Williams had a brilliant 7-yard touchdown run to put the Rams up 24-20 with 1:10 left.
Hurts immediately took a sack, then another one as the Eagles went four-and-out after an incomplete pass on 4th-and-25. Total collapse by the Eagles while the Rams just saved their season that was slipping away.
Remember this one as the trajectory of these two teams could be heading in opposite directions the rest of the way.
Patriots at Bills: Possibly a Season-Saving Comeback II
September was a rough one for the Patriots, but they could right the ship with an upset in Buffalo, and that’s exactly what they got. It was similar to last year when the 2-2 Patriots were a big underdog in Buffalo, and they pulled off some takeaways and Drake Maye led the first game-winning drive of his NFL career.
On Sunday, I think Maye had the best win of his NFL career too. He did the things I’ve always criticized him for not doing:
- He led a legitimate 4QC/GWD late in the game that wasn’t just a long touchdown run by his back.
- He threw 37 passes in the game and only took a single sack to beat a winning team.
- It’s the first time in Maye’s career he won a game where his defense allowed more than 24 points.
How bad is that Buffalo defense? The Patriots scored 10, 13, and 6 points on offense in the first three games and 29 on the road in this one. Maye’s only interception was a drop and bad deflection by Romeo Doubs, who made up for it later with two touchdowns.
Meanwhile, Josh Allen had been getting away with turnovers earlier this season, and I still think he narrowly avoided a grounding penalty for a safety in the third quarter of this one. But his mistakes caught up to Buffalo in the end of this one.
First, the Bills are absolutely terrible at 2-point conversions these days. After a Keon Coleman touchdown (he played great after D.J. Moore left injured), the Bills had a crucial 2PC to go up 28-21. They failed once again with Allen missing a wide-open tight end and forcing an incomplete pass. Buffalo only led 26-21, opening the door for Maye, who delivered on his 2PC pass to take a 29-26 lead.
Since the 2024 AFC Championship Game, the Bills are 2-of-13 (15.4%) on 2PC plays, including 1-of-10 with Allen attempting the 2PC pass. Now you see why he is the Tush Push guy at the goal line.
Down 29-26, Allen had plenty of time (1:42) to tie or win the game. But on a 2nd-and-6 at his own 40, he forced a deep throw and was intercepted. The Patriots got one first down and ran out the clock.
Huge win for the Patriots, who prevented the AFC East from being somewhat wrapped up by Week 4 for Buffalo, a team that is about to see the schedule get tougher too while New England’s eases up some.
But for Buffalo, you could argue this team is worse than recent years given the defense looks worse without McDermott, and the offense is still quite careless with the ball in big spots, and Joe Brady apparently can’t design 2PC plays, or Allen just can’t hit the throws like the 13-12 Philadelphia loss last year.
September’s over. The Bills need to get better.
Chargers at Seahawks: Probably a Season-Ending Loss
It’s not like I expected the Chargers to win at Seattle, but I thought Justin Herbert could do better than a DeShone Kizer-like stat line for much of the game. He was 5-of-14 for 36 yards and two picks at halftime.
Speaking of Kizer, he was 0-15 as a starter for the 2017 Browns, who finished 0-16. The Chargers have actually lost seven straight games going back to last year, and the offense has never been worse in the Justin Herbert era. In fact, this is probably the worst Chargers offense since the Ryan Leaf era.
Even after the Chargers managed to get this back to a 30-23 game with the ball, Herbert lost it on a fumble to end the game. It also reportedly is the first game in the play-by-play era (since 1977) where the first two plays from scrimmage were an interception from each starting quarterback. Odd.
But what a rough game with both teams registering 13 possessions. I’ll be very curious to see how the Seahawks hold up against the 49ers next week. As for the Chargers, they have the Broncos, Chiefs, and Rams up next, so 0-7 is not out of the question.
Again, the 1992 Chargers are the only team in the Super Bowl era to start 0-4 and make the playoffs. The 2026 Chargers are not the 1992 Chargers.
Cowboys at Texans: Probably a Season-Ending Loss II
The Texans had a great defense in 2024-25, and the vast majority of those starters were active again on Sunday. But for the third time this year, the Texans blew a fourth-quarter lead. No other NFL team has done that more than once this season.
C.J. Stroud has been a lighting rod for criticism, but this loss was not on him. He got Nico Collins back, and that helped big time as Stroud threw for 347 yards, two touchdowns to Nico, and he did it without a good running game (17 carries for 50 yards). He also had a clutch touchdown drive to take the lead with 2:23 left.
But the Cowboys finally sucked it up and had their own clutch drive as Dak Prescott led a 74-yard march for the go-ahead touchdown to CeeDee Lamb with 40 seconds left. Lamb had 17 catches for 189 yards, numbers that seem unfathomable against this defense in 2024-25.
Stroud only had 37 seconds to work with, and his Hail Mary attempt fell incomplete to end the game, dropping Houston to 0-4. It’s been a stunning collapse that is on the defense as much as the offense, if not more so given the hype of this unit and the Nico injury on the other side.
As for the Cowboys, it’s good to see them deliver in a situation like this even if the Texans are going through a rough period that could lead to someone getting fired if this keeps up.
Jaguars at Bengals: Jags Cruise Down Interstate 1-35 for Big Road Win
As I said in this week’s predictions, Jacksonville is the one opponent that Zac Taylor’s Bengals have repeatedly been able to beat in higher-scoring games and in crunch time. Sunday was shaping up to be another one as the Bengals were 21 yards away from pulling off a 12-point comeback all in the final 6:35, which would easily be the best comeback win of Joe Burrow’s career. He’s never won after trailing by more than 7 points in the fourth quarter.
Of course, it may not have been necessary if he didn’t throw a red-zone pick in a 16-10 game with 14:10 left. That was his second pick of the game and lucky it wasn’t a third after a bad one to Travis Hunter was negated by roughing earlier in the game. Penalties were massive in this one as both teams combined for 24 penalties for 233 yards.
But with Ja’Marr Chase knocked out with a concussion, Burrow had a chance to be the hero in a game he threw the ball 54 times for 428 yards. A game where his running backs had 12 carries for 17 yards. This was all on him.
And he blew it again by coming up short. After three good throws to start the drive, Burrow couldn’t get the Bengals any closer from the 21. He had a miscommunication on second down with a possible touchdown to Mike Gesicki, then he threw it short on 4th-and-10 to Chase Brown, who only got 9-of-10 yards to end the game. No dagger throw to put the team on top in the final minute again.
After the game, Burrow’s answer to the lack of balance was throwing it more. I didn’t hear him say they need to do whatever it takes to score more than 17 points as the defense, while not perfect, did hold a red-hot Jacksonville team to 22, only the second time in nearly a year that the Jaguars didn’t reach 23 points. Parker Washington had just a single catch for 7 yards and Lawrence was sacked four times.
But the Bengals (2-2) came up short again in the exact situation I point to them doing so with Burrow, who is now 1-35 when trailing in the final 8:00, a stat he was asked about this week. He had a chance to immediately fire back with his best comeback ever, and the end result was another loss.
Lions at Panthers: The Bryce Young Breakout Season or Detroit’s Defense Is Actually Horrible?
Are we truly witnessing the Bryce Young Year 4 breakout season for the No. 1 overall pick? He leads the NFL in passing yards (1,268) as no quarterback has thrown more passes (162), but he’s also averaging 7.8 yards per pass, a full 1.5 yards above his previous seasons.
He looked great on Sunday night against Detroit, and while the Lions are a contender for the worst defense right now, the fact is Young has been fairly consistent this year. He’s not just relying on fourth-quarter heroics anymore either. Getting Tetairoa McMillan has really worked out for him as the two had their best game together on SNF.
Meanwhile, the Lions have allowed the most points and yards on defense, and the offense hasn’t been great enough to win more than two of the games. They still have just one turnover in four games, so that hasn’t been the problem for Jared Goff yet. They just have to be close to perfect and can’t really settle for field goals or failing on fourth downs.
That happened a bit too much last night, and the last drive in particular with two minutes to go get a winning touchdown in a 32-26 game was absolutely abysmal.
Something just feels a little off about the Detroit offense right now. They have five capable weapons to throw to, though the running back depth is gone without David Montgomery there anymore. They are only 14th at converting third downs too, which you can stomach a little since Dan Campbell is more likely to go on fourth down. But the exact level of precision they need to overcome a bottom-ranked defense just isn’t there yet, so I think you’ll continue to see them struggle in such games.
The good news is Detroit doesn’t have a daunting road schedule left with games at Arizona, Miami, Atlanta, Minnesota, Chicago, and Green Bay.
Packers at Buccaneers: Still Not Trusting the Packers
Again, we’ve seen the Packers lose to Tommy DeVito and the Giants in 2023, so nothing would have surprised me here against undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels and the struggling Buccaneers.
The Packers did fail to cover the spread (-3.5) thanks to some fourth-quarter blunders, including a deep red-zone fumble by Kaleb Johnson, and Jordan Love had another boneheaded interception late in the game in Tampa territory.
That gave Daniels a chance to be the hero with 4:18 left from his own 15. His passing in the game wasn’t good as expected, but he rushed for 55 yards and showed decent mobility. He only needed a field goal to tie. But a sack shortly after the two-minute warning killed the drive, and they just pressured him on 4th-and-11 to get home with more pressure that led to a meaningless interception as the ball was going back to Green Bay either way.
Tough way to start 0-4 for Tampa Bay, but the Packers don’t look that much better if we’re being honest.
Jets at Bears: Ben Johnson’s Laboratory
Ben Johnson is a wild one because he actually started the game with Case Keenum at quarterback and Tyson Bagnet on the field too, split wide. I think that should actually give Keenum credit for the win since he took the first snap at quarterback and handed off. But Bagent ended up throwing every pass in the game.
He did throw one interception that counted, ending the improbable 20-game streak without a pick for Aaron Glenn’s defense. Bagent also had three other picks negated by penalties, which is unfathomable for one game. Maybe the Jets are going to start getting huge positive regression in that category? Just need to stay onsides and stop committing penalties.
But the story of this game was the snap count. The Jets were doing a great job of hogging the ball early in the season, but the Bears had more first downs (34) than the Jets had plays (32) in this game, reportedly only the second time in the Super Bowl era this happened. Just pure domination as the Jets were 0-for-7 on third down and had 7 first downs in the game.
The Bears can run, they can win with three different quarterbacks, and the defense has really picked it up after an awful Week 1 (again, Carolina might just be good now on offense).
Chicago is looking like the real deal this year.
Cardinals at Giants: A Walk-off to Remember
I had the Giants winning as a home underdog, which made me a little surprised the spread was even in Arizona’s favor. But after an early 14-3 lead for the road team, I started wondering if that NFC West superiority was a real thing this season.
Fortunately, a game with Jacoby Brissett and Jameis Winston played out as you expected with fun touchdowns and turnovers loading up the stat sheets. It was a 27-24 game going into the fourth quarter before the scoring slowed down dramatically.
The Giants kicked a 52-yard field goal with 2:11 left to take the dreaded 6-point lead. I’ve never been a fan of that, but I’m not sure what you really can do on 4th-and-5 at the opponent 34. Kinda too close to take a delay of game and punt. A little too far to still want to go for it as a couple of first downs and the opponent is in field goal range.
Given Brissett’s historically-bad record at comebacks (6-27 record) and the fact that Arizona still had two clock stoppages, going up 30-24 was probably the right call. But that drive got to the 4-yard line, giving Brissett four cracks at it. He went to Trey McBride just once and Michael Wilson three times, but the last one was picked off and the Giants took it 98 yards to rub it in with the 12-point win. You’d prefer to just see the player take a slide and end the game instead of risking a fumbled return or whatever, but sometimes scoring is okay too with no time left. It didn’t affect the spread either way.
But man, with 4 yards to go, wouldn’t that be a nice spot to have a trustworthy receiver with a heigh advantage like Marvin Harrison Jr.? They got him a 12-yard touchdown early in the game, and he drew a pass interference flag that got them to the 4 in the first place. But nothing to him with the game on the line.
Titans at Ravens: Not Again, Lamar
It’s funny how once Lamar Jackson went out with an injury, the RedZone channel basically forgot this game existed. I can understand that too. It was 24-7 at halftime and there wasn’t another touchdown scored until the Titans got one with 1:12 left to make it 24-18. But not enough time for anything but an onside kick, which failed.
Tyler Loop made a 64-yard field goal to end the half but also missed a 40-yard kick with 3:19 left that would have put it out to a 3-score lead. He’s a work in progress. The Titans are always a work in progress as Cam Ward and the offense have done so little this year.
But all eyes are on Jackson as he took a huge hit in this game at the sideline that you normally don’t see, then he left the game after getting injured on a sack right before the 64-yard field goal. Not good. Not this again as we wait to see if he’ll be active next Sunday night.
Commanders vs. Colts: The London Tradition
I remember a 2008 game in London where the Saints and Chargers played a 37-32 shootout and it was great. But the teams involved had a lot to do with it, and since then, the NFL loves sending teams like the Jaguars (usually bad) and teams with Marcus Mariota at quarterback overseas.
That’s why the games are usually low scoring and ugly to watch, which is why I tend to sleep in during the first 2-3 quarters and catch the ending. But I just so happened to be up early on Sunday, and I watched the whole game. If you like defense (great tackling, pressure on the quarterback), Colts-Commanders was a great game. If not, then it was skippable.
I really think my pick of Washington had some hope if Mariota didn’t get injured early. He was 3-of-4 for 46 yards and his 35-yard run finished as the team’s leading rusher. Rookie Athan Kaliakmanis (Christ, what a name) had to step in, and he threw some fearless deep balls that hit, but overall, he wasn’t going to get the job done.
Daniel Jones looked pretty bad, but the Colts got enough on the ground from Jonathan Taylor and company to eventually score 30 points and get the win. But I don’t see much playoff hope for either squad.
Dolphins at Vikings: It’s Not a Bad Beat
The Vikings improved to 4-0 even though the offense settled for five field goals and didn’t score any touchdowns for the second time this season. But tight end T.J. Hockenson, who caught all 13 of his targets, started a shitstorm when he slid down at the Miami 2 with a 15-10 lead as the clock moved to the two-minute warning. With the Dolphins out of timeouts, this game was over with three kneeldowns.
This is the right football play every single time. The game is over and you literally can’t lose unless you fumble the snap on a kneeldown. Yet, whether it’s people with Hockenson in fantasy or props, or it’s people who took the sucker line of Vikings -10 (without Jefferson? Really? I told you on Saturday it was Miami ATS all the way), they seem to think Hockenson should score a meaningless touchdown.
Open the schools if people don’t see why he did that, something many players have done over the years (Brian Westbrook in 2007, Peyton Manning in 2010, etc.). It doesn’t mean the game is rigged; it means you don’t understand strategy. Why risk more snaps when your players can get injured on any given one of them? The game was over.
Broncos at 49ers: The Way You Handle Bo Nix in the Fourth Quarter
Lots of long drives with punts and field goal attempts kept this to a 10-3 score going into the fourth quarter. That’s generally not when you want to see Bo Nix with the ball as he tends to turn into Joe Montana after looking like Cade McNown for the first three quarters.
But the 49ers handled him the best way you could by simply staying ahead of the scoreboard. The Broncos decided to kick a 40-yard field goal on 4th-and-2, and they trailed 10-6. Brock Purdy engineered a touchdown drive, which Nix answered with a touchdown and 2-point conversion to keep the heat on at 17-14 with plenty of time left (4:05) to get the ball back.
I’ve been working on game-sealing drive data, and while this wouldn’t count as one, it was perfection in the four-minute offense by the 49ers as a well-timed and schemed tight end screen to George Kittle broke for a 56-yard touchdown, and the 49ers were back up 10 points with 2:25 to play.
That’s already the second time this year the Broncos allowed a huge YAC play (50+ yards) to an “old” tight end after Travis Kelce got them in Week 1. If it wasn’t for what Patrick Mahomes is doing off an ACL, I think Kittle would be the favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year. He looks great after an Achilles in the playoffs.
The Broncos only had enough time left for a missed 58-yard field goal with 1:14 left. They would have needed an onside kick anyway. So, that’s one way to prevent a Bo Nix comeback. Just get one stop and keep scoring.
Next Week
Not a great start with Bucs-Cowboys on Thursday night. Eagles against the London Jaguars on Sunday morning is a big one for Philly to stop this slide, which isn’t looking likely. Jacksonville looks legit. Hard to believe Packers-Bears is losing luster because of how Green Bay is playing and not how the Bears are doing with BACKUP quarterbacks.
Pretty weak 1 PM slate when Raiders-Patriots might be the top game. Only three games in the late afternoon but 49ers-Seahawks is clearly the game of the week, if not the top game in the first five weeks of the season. We’ll see on SNF if Lamar Jackson can play in Atlanta. Bills at Rams is very interesting for MNF.
