2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 2

The season where Derek Carr turned into 2007 Tom Brady and held off Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield for the MVP nearly broke me.

I’m trying to keep the big picture in mind for the 2024 NFL season, but after an upset-heavy Sunday where a lot of offenses struggled again, I’m skeptical about what’s to come. This could be a season like 2021 where no one is truly great, and you end up with a Super Bowl between No. 4 seeds.

Though, it probably won’t be the Bengals vs. Rams again as both teams are 0-2 and not looking great. But even the Ravens are 0-2, easily the biggest surprise in that group as you had to think a home game with the Raiders was a given, right?

But nothing is a lock. In fact, the three biggest favorites by the point spread are 0-3 this season. Those were all favorites of 7.5 points or more, including the Bengals last week against New England. Teams favored by that much in Weeks 1-2 were 30-1 SU since 2018. The only other seasons in the 16-game era where three favorites lost this quickly were 1978 and 2003. Those seasons still finished with a traditional Super Bowl rematch (Steelers vs. Cowboys) and the Patriots were in another one (albeit against Jake Delhomme).

Get your Chiefs vs. Saints Super Bowl LIX futures in now? Eh, long way to go, but it was a wake-up call day for a lot of teams. Following 10 games in the early window was insane too. The NFL should really rethink that as the 3-game late slate is not good enough.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bengals at Chiefs: Game of the Week

When Joe Burrow says the Bengals are built specifically to beat the Chiefs, I wonder what he means exactly. On the offensive side of the ball, I don’t really see it. At least not with the current makeup of the Bengals without Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, and with Tee Higgins injured.

But Sunday went against type for the Bengals as they used their tight ends the most they ever have in a game with Burrow, copying some elements of how the Ravens had success with Isaiah Likely in Week 1 using multiple tight ends. When Mike Gesicki (91) and Drew Sample (28) are more than tripling Ja’Marr Chase in (35) in receiving yards, something’s up.

It almost worked out too, but Burrow did not hold up his end of the bargain. Much like in the two AFC Championship Games these teams played, he had a bad turnover in the fourth quarter. But this time it was a strip-sack returned for a touchdown while the Bengals led 22-17. That was huge with the Chiefs struggling to stay ahead of the Bengals in this game.

One could argue the Bengals bring out the worst in the Kansas City offense. In this game, they were able to hold Patrick Mahomes to 151 passing yards, the first time he’s ever been under 166 yards in a game he completed. He only threw it 25 times, but they also got two interceptions, including a brilliant one-handed catch late in the third quarter. Throw in the obligatory fumble from the Chiefs, and the Bengals were up 3-0 in turnovers with the ball before Burrow’s massive fumble.

But if we can back up, why did the Bengals not go for two on a touchdown that made it 22-17 with minutes left in the third? They should have tried to make it 24-17. But Evan McPherson missed the extra point, and that set us down a path that ultimately led to the Chiefs escaping with a 26-25 win. Things would have been different at 24-17. The fumble would only have tied the game, and so would a late field goal by the Chiefs as overtime would have been a possibility.

Going for the extra point was the first mistake, Burrow’s fumble was the second, and the third came on the next drive when Chase lost his cool and picked up a 15-yard flag from the refs. Instead of a 3rd-and-7, the Bengals faced a 3rd-and-22. They were able to salvage that drive for a field goal attempt, and McPherson redeemed himself with a 53-yard field goal to give the Bengals a 25-23 lead.

The Chiefs have a real problem right now with rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia being outmatched by an edge rusher on par with Trey Hendrickson. After Mahomes was sacked, the rookie tackle was also flagged for a hold that negated a 41-yard play to Travis Kelce, who only finished the game with a 5-yard swing catch.

Running out the final 6:57 would have been tough, but the Bengals were doing well until Burrow took another third-down sack and the team had to punt. The Chiefs had 2:35 to get a field goal, but it really felt like they came out of the two-minute warning with a lazy approach as if they weren’t down and this was really important.

A 1-yard run, a nonchalant throwaway, and just like that it was 3rd-and-9 where pressure forced a short throw to bring up 4th-and-6. Then the game got a little goofy. Mahomes made what should have been another game-winning type of play, finding Rashee Rice for 21 yards to the Cincinnati 34. Bang, there’s field goal range in the final 50 seconds with the Bengals down to one timeout.

But a lineman (not Kingsley) was flagged for illegal hands to the face, and it’s hard to say the call was anything but correct. Shades of 2023, the Chiefs were shooting themselves in the foot and had to convert a 4th-and-16. Mahomes threw deep for Rice, but it bounced incomplete off the defensive back’s head only for a flag to come in for pass interference on Daijahn Anthony, a 7th-round rookie who played 2 defensive snaps last week, and somehow he found himself defending the Chiefs’ best receiver on 4th-and-ballgame.

You’ve seen it, I’m sure. Was it not textbook pass interference?

You might get some leeway on defense in a Hail Mary situation, but this was not a Hail Mary throw. It was to a spot where Rice or Anthony could catch it, and Anthony clearly arrived early and tried to play the ball through the receiver by making contact high and to the head. I think they actually might let that one go if he jumped straight up with Rice, but he leaned into him too much and that’s a penalty.

Every little penalty in a Chiefs game turns into this big controversy now, but I see two penalties on crucial fourth-down plays, and both were correct. Had the first one not been called, the Chiefs are running the ball a couple of times and kicking a field goal from the same distance or even shorter than they ultimately did. You can’t just harp on the 4th-and-16 and ignore that the Bengals were fortunate they got a 4th-and-6 call that negated a conversion.

The Chiefs didn’t make it any easier on Harrison Butker, but from 51 yards out, he was money right down the middle again for the 26-25 escape to drop the Bengals to 0-2.

The prospects of the 2024 Chiefs fielding their strongest team yet are not looking great. They’re 2-0 against arguably two of their main AFC rivals, but is that saying a lot right now? New England beat Cincy and the Raiders just beat the Ravens.

I don’t doubt the Chiefs won’t be the toughest out for anyone in January, but you combine a Hollywood Brown injury that will keep him out of the regular season with this very unproductive Kelce start and add in a Pacheco injury at the end of this game, and things aren’t looking the greatest.

But I think if you’re just being honest as a Chiefs fan, you don’t want to see this Cincinnati team again this season. They just have that way of bringing out the worst with this offense.

Raiders at Ravens: Upset of the Year

In Week 3 last season, the Ravens lost 22-19 at home in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite against Gardner Minshew and the Colts. This year in Week 2, they lost 26-23 at home as an 8.5-point home favorite against Minshew and the Raiders. It’s the worst spread loss for the Ravens in the regular season in the Lamar Jackson era.

What is going on in Baltimore? They usually save these disappointments for January, but Justin Tucker is missing 50-yard field goals while the rest of the league crushes them, Derrick Henry struggled to get going for a long time Sunday, and once again Minshew led the game-winning drive Jackson couldn’t. Remember, Jackson didn’t have a single game-winning drive last year despite the team’s 13 wins in his MVP season.

This game was too close for comfort for a long time, but it sure looked like the Ravens had it in the bag when Henry scored to make it 23-13 with 12:11 left. But the Raiders got a field goal, Henry was called for a false start to knock the offense out of a 3rd-and-1 on a three-and-out, and the Raiders were bailed out on a 3rd-and-17 incompletion with a defensive pass interference penalty in the end zone.

We looked at the Kansas City DPI, so here’s the Baltimore one:

I don’t like the call, but I can kind of see the optics for why Davante Adams was able to sell it for a penalty. I see Stephens initiate the contact with his left hand on Adams, but they were both grabbing and fighting each other into the end zone. But at the last moment, Adams positions himself to dive for the ball while Stephens takes a different angle and bats at it. Maybe if did more to let Adams go to try going for the pick, they would have let it go.

But that is definitely a tough call. Adams caught a touchdown on the next snap and the game was tied with 3:54 left. Maxx Crosby immediately sacked Jackson to blow up another drive for a 3-and-out. Just a terrible drive for the Ravens there.

The special teams are usually great, but the Ravens hurt themselves with a 24-yard punt, so Minshew got to start at the Baltimore 43. The drive moved 23 yards and Daniel Carlson was good on a 38-yard field goal to take a 26-23 lead with 27 seconds left.

You still have a chance with Tucker’s leg despite recent misses, but the Ravens were out of timeouts. With one snap left and 59 yards away, I guess Lamar thought his best shot was to run for it and lateral, but I’m not sure why he didn’t keep going down the left sideline before starting that part of it.

The Raiders rushed for just 27 yards in this game while Baltimore had 151 thanks to that last play being their longest in the game. But this makes the Raiders the only NFL team since 1970 to win as an 8.5-point underdog while rushing for less than 30 yards and getting outrushed by over 115 yards.

Just a brutal loss for the Ravens (0-2). Was the loss of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to Seattle even bigger than expected? They were still blowing a handful of multi-score leads under Macdonald in 2022 as well, so maybe 2023 was the outlier here.

It’s not getting any easier too. The Ravens are in Dallas before hosting Buffalo the next two weeks. There’s at least precedent for them losing at home by a field goal to Minshew and losing to Mahomes, but they have to start showing more than they have so far in 2024.

Saints at Cowboys: Did Carr Absorb Brady’s Powers Before the Game?

Well, I was right about Derek Carr throwing an interception in Dallas. But that was only after he hung 41 points as the Saints opened with six straight touchdown drives, looking like some mixture of the 1999 Rams, 2007 Patriots, and the 2023 Packers team that went into Jerry’s World in January and embarrassed Dallas.

I liked the Saints to make the playoffs and possibly win the NFC South this year, but where the hell did all of this come from? I guess maybe beating up those South teams wasn’t meaningless as they only just added to this figure of dominance from last week and late in 2023:

The 2023-24 Saints join the 1941 Bears, 1968 Browns, 2007 Patriots, and 2018 Saints as the only teams in NFL history to score at least 44 points in three straight games. That’s historic company for a team no one was expecting this from. Alvin Kamara is out there playing like he’s 1999 Marshall Faulk. Carr’s 96.2 QBR leads the league and he’s treating Rashid Shaheed like he’s his Randy Moss.

But in one of the most shocking stats I’ve ever heard, Derek Carr started this season with 15 straight scoring drives.

How did he do that? That’s 9 straight scores against Carolina, then he was benched for the backup on the final two drives (both punts) with the game in hand, then he led 6 straight touchdowns in Dallas to get to 15.

I’m not sure if any quarterback has done that before even if you search through prime Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or Mahomes. Even when Josh Allen reached some offensive perfection in the 2021 playoffs by going 7-for-7 on touchdown drives against New England, and best you can stretch that out to 10 straight scoring drives by including the regular season finale and the next playoff game in Kansas City. He started that one with a punt on his second drive, so even him playing his best didn’t come close to 15 straight scores.

The quarterback being pulled for the score is certainly a strong factor for why this streak can even exist. But I honestly don’t know if you can find another streak like this for a quarterback in the NFL.

And it’s Derek Carr who did it? Insane. Carr only threw 16 passes in Dallas but they went for 243 yards. It was an onslaught of big passing plays and a consistent ground game. The Cowboys never had much of a shot to keep up as Dak Prescott threw for 293 yards, a touchdown, and 2 picks. The first pick was the swing moment just before halftime when the Cowboys were down 28-13 and just converted a 3rd-and-10. The pick felt a little similar to the pick-six he threw in January to Green Bay to make it 27-0.

But I still never would have believed the Saints had this type of performance in them. When we’re asking for a team to step up this year and show it’s great now, could this really be the team that does it? Is new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak a nepotism hire that’s worth its weight in gold?

Very curious to see where this goes as the Sains have been blowing teams out for longer than two weeks. No one cared late in 2023 because they were missing the playoffs. They should have everyone’s attention now.

49ers at Vikings: They Haven’t Won in Minnesota Since WHEN?

I couldn’t believe this stat when I heard it, but the 49ers haven’t won in Minnesota since December 1992, or a month after Bill Clinton won his first presidential election. The 49ers were on an 0-7 streak in Minnesota.

Make it 0-8 now. I knew they lost in Minnesota last season on a Monday night, and I chalked that up to injuries (Christian McCaffrey), a fluky touchdown to Jordan Addison before the half, and Purdy suffering a concussion late in the game before he threw some bone-headed picks. I liked the 49ers, who were without CMC again, to roll with Jordan Mason and overcome that loss last year.

Welp, I was wrong. They let Sam Darnold hit Justin Jefferson for a 97-yard touchdown that could go down as the longest play from scrimmage in this entire season. The 49ers also had a punt blocked, turned it over on downs twice, and Brock Purdy coughed up the ball on a drive that should have led to a 27-7 lead for the Vikings in the fourth quarter, but Aaron Jones fumbled on his way to the goal line to keep some hope alive in a 20-7 game.

But there was no comeback. Despite a 99-yard touchdown drive after the Jones fumble, the vaunted San Francisco defense couldn’t get Darnold off the field in several crucial third-down chances with Jefferson sidelined with an injury. Addison was already out before the game, and the Vikings haven’t even had tight end T.J. Hockenson available yet in these games. They could actually get better.

But their 6:46 drive for a field goal was a dagger as the Vikings were back up 23-14 with just 3:30 left. The 49ers added a field goal with 1:12 left to make it 23-17, but they couldn’t get the ball back after the onside kick failed.

I guess Brian Flores’ scheme is the magic weapon against the 49ers (without CMC)? Mason still rushed for 100 yards. Purdy still threw for 319, but it was the 6 sacks and the timely stops that frustrated the 49ers the entire game.

Buccaneers at Lions: Something’s Missing with Detroit

This spread (Lions -7.5) felt too high even if Detroit technically covered it twice last year against Tampa Bay. But the Buccaneers looked great last week, and Baker Mayfield has been playing very well. I wasn’t that impressed with Detroit last week in the overtime win over a battered Rams team, and sure enough, they were worse in this game.

Something just feels off with Detroit right now. Jameson Williams had a 50-yard catch again and looks better than Josh Reynolds ever did, so it’s not the lack of a WR2 or anything. Maybe it ‘s a slow start for tight end Sam LaPorta (13 yards) or how the running game hasn’t really been that great outside of the overtime drive last week.

But it always looks worse when Jared Goff is throwing his Jared Goof picks, and that happened a couple of times in this one. Even though the defense, led by an incredible effort from Aidan Hutchinson (4.5 sacks) got to Mayfield 5 times, they still gave up a rushing touchdown to Mayfield late in the third quarter to trail 20-16.

That still left Goff with four opportunities to get the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter, and despite each drive crossing deep into Tampa territory, the Lions went scoreless. Goff had a bad pick and later turned it over on downs twice despite the defense continuing to get him the ball back.

It was a big missed opportunity in a winnable game.

Bears at Texans: Not Quite My MVP’s Night

After a Sunday filled with contenders disappointing, I was hoping to see the Texans put on a show Sunday night in an easy win over Chicago. Instead, they scored 19 points on 12 drives, blew the spread, and had to come up with a last-second stop of rookie Caleb Williams, who was under duress all night from the pass rush.

At least the pass rush looked good with 7 sacks and plenty of pressures. But the Texans went from scoring 13 points on three drives to struggling the rest of the game. It looks like the huge Joe Mixon game in Week 1 was more about playing the Colts, a lousy run defense, than expecting any dominance out of the Houston running game this year. Mixon finished with 9 carries for 25 yards in this one as he was banged up.

But Stroud was solid, and that connection with Nico Collins (135 yards) is dominant. There is no denying who the WR1 in Houston is this year.

But I would have liked to see the Texans win in more convincing fashion against a Chicago team that still clearly has flaws with the offensive line, coaching, and Wiliams’ inexperience. He was better than he was in Week 1 at least.

Jets at Titans: Big Dick vs. Big Dick Energy

I guess the Jets can survive a team like Tennessee with this kind of effort, but they still have a lot of work to do to get up to the elite class. Aaron Rodgers might be good for one highlight-reel touchdown a week in this offense, but the highlight largely belonged to Breece Hall for a brilliant 26-yard touchdown that made him look like a wideout. Keep in mind that was on a drive to open the half that was nearly stopped on a three-and-out before a roughing penalty on the Titans negated a 3rd-and-15 stop.

The Titans had a lot of costly mistakes again in falling to 0-2. Will Levis again tried to do too much and had multiple turnovers, and they also had a punt blocked.

But to break a 17-17 tie in the fourth quarter, Rodgers led a 74-yard touchdown drive with 4:31 left. When Levis had to answer, his legs got them within 8 yards, but then things stalled out with a big sack, and Levis threw incomplete on 4th-and-14 to end the game.

The game did at least end a 7-game streak where Rodgers did not throw multiple touchdown passes, a streak that went back to November 2022.

Colts at Packers: Coaching Matters

A good example of how coaching matters. The Packers didn’t have Jordan Love, and their backup Malik Willis has failed to throw for 100 yards in each of his three NFL starts. But Matt LaFleur had a run-heavy gameplan as the Packers rolled up 261 yards on the ground with most of that coming before halftime as Josh Jacobs (151 yards) and company were outstanding. Well, except for that horrible fumble by Jacobs at the 1-yard line as he carried the ball like a loaf of bread.

But the Packers managed the game beautifully without Love. Willis finished 12-of-14 for 122 yards and a touchdown pass while rushing for 41 yards.

At this point, you have to wonder if Shane Steichen should be employing a similar approach with the raw Anthony Richardson, who threw 34 times but was picked off three times, including a Hail Mary to end things in the 16-10 loss. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor rushed for 103 yards but only had 12 carries. The Packers had long drives early while the Colts struggled to get into any rhythm.

The Colts are now 0-4 in games where Richardson plays most of the snaps. Not great.

Browns at Jaguars: The Lawrence Splits Continue

I said I was hedging my Week 2 picks with six games where I picked a spread winner different from the moneyline winner. I ended up going 5-0 ATS on those games (Falcons-Eagles pending) and 2-3 SU, so it wasn’t a bad strategy. Just needed a little more courage to pick the Browns and Packers outright to win.

But the reasons I liked the Browns in this one? They beat the Jaguars last year and I feel the defense has the right pieces to force Trevor Lawrence into a rough game, especially after discovering these stats where he basically can’t win a game if he doesn’t complete over 60% of his passes.

Sure enough, he was 14-of-30 in this game, so he was under 50% in the 18-13 loss. It was a rough game that seemingly never wanted to end as the Jaguars tried to make a comeback attempt late. They even had a 2-yard go-ahead touchdown with half a quarter left that was taken away for an illegal shift. They settled for a field goal to make it 16-13, Lawrence couldn’t get out of his end zone with the ball to start the next possession, and that sacked produced a safety with 1:44 left.

But the Browns were not able to run out the clock, and a Deshaun Watson incompletion on third down actually saved Lawrence a solid 40 seconds to make this 18-13 comeback plausible with 1:27 left.

He still had to go 90 yards, but after reaching the Cleveland 28, Lawrence’s Hail Mary was knocked away to end the game and drop the Jaguars to a disappointing 0-2 after both games were winnable.

Lawrence is now 2-21 when he doesn’t complete at least 60% of his passes. Daniel Jones is in the same boat and is now 1-17 when he doesn’t too, the only record that’s worse among the 179 quarterbacks since 1970 with at least 50 games of experience.

This might be how I pick Jacksonville games the rest of the year. Determining if Lawrence is going to complete a high rate or not. Right now, the connection to Christian Kirk is completely broken, and it didn’t help that tight end Evan Engram was injured in warm-ups and missed this game.

Giants at Commanders: OnlyFGs

Jayden Daniels’ first game-winning drive was a historic NFL game. I was skeptical of how Daniels would fare in a Kliff Kingsbury offense, but we have two games of evidence that he has drive engineering skills that can be very intriguing once he gets better at throwing the ball, especially to his wide receivers.

But after only getting the ball 8 times last week in Tampa Bay, each team only had the ball 7 times in this game. The Commanders just happened to turn all 7 of their possessions into field goals by Austin Seibert. That speaks poorly for their red-zone ability, but 3.00 Pts/Dr is still elite.

They took a knee before the half too, but this is really a perfect game if the goal was to score all field goals, and I don’t think there’s another like it in NFL history. If you search for games since 1940 where a team had no punts and no turnovers, only one game comes up showing a team that scored fewer than 26 points, and I’m thinking that’s just an error that they’re missing data for punts or turnovers or something’s off.

Only three teams show up for a game with 0 punts, 0 turnovers, and 5 field goal attempts. Interestingly enough, the Giants scored three touchdowns in this game and still lost because they only scored 18 points. Their kicker (Graham Gano) was injured before the game, made it worse on the opening kickoff, which was a 98-yard return by Austin Ekeler negated by penalty, and the backup missed an extra point. So, the Giants tried to go for two twice and failed both times.

Just an extremely unique way to get to a 21-18 score as both offenses were moving the ball quite well. Malik Nabers also looked the part of a No. 1 wideout with 10 catches for 127 yards and his first touchdown. But he’ll regret not hauling in that last target that he had a diving attempt for on 4th-and-4 at the Washington 22 with 2:09 left.

Instead, the Commanders took over in a tied game and Daniels hit his longest pass play for 34 yards to Noah Brown to set up the final, winning field goal with no time left. All seven field goals were from within 45 yards, and 6-of-7 were from within 33 yards.

You probably won’t see another one like this, but it does point to some interesting ways Daniels can operate in this offense with short passes and timely scrambles/designed runs. He just needs to stay healthy.

Steelers at Broncos: Flag Fest

It’s hard to judge the Pittsburgh offense right now as it seems like every highlight-worthy play gets called back by penalty, and sometimes it’s not even a good call. The Steelers only scored 13 points in Denver, but that was enough to outlast a supposed offensive genius in Sean Payton, who relied on some tricks to get Bo Nix to complete some passes down the field. But Nix wasn’t as painfully inefficient as he was last week in his debut. He’s just struggling on a team that frankly is lousy, and they have no real running game to support him with.

But it was a tough game to watch with 19 accepted penalties for 202 yards between the teams. The Steelers punted 8 times while the only turnover was a pick in the end zone by Nix before he added a second on a last-ditch desperation throw.

The Steelers reportedly gave Russell Wilson a game ball in the revenge game his calf wouldn’t let him play. I wonder what Tomlin is thinking at this point as they are not scoring enough points to beat any decent team, but Fields also isn’t screwing up egregiously yet to bench him for Wilson, a wild card.

But celebrating a 2-0 start when you’re averaging 15.5 points per game is a weird thing to do. They still have a lot of the offensive stink they’ve had since December 2020.

Chargers at Panthers: Stress-Free 2-0 Chargers

It almost happened last week, and it did happen Sunday when J.K. Dobbins had more rushing yards (131) than Justin Herbert had passing yards (130). But Herbert threw for two touchdowns to Quentin Johnston, who held on this time, and it was a stress-free 26-3 win over a pathetic Carolina team. Herbert is owed some layups after what he endured his first four seasons.

But it’s shocking that the Panthers actually look worse in every way this year under coach Dave Canales. Bryce Young is daring to be the worst quarterback drafted No. 1 overall since JaMarcus Russell, and maybe the only thing stopping me from calling him the biggest bust is that he’s a tiny guy with a relatively small contract.

But Young flat-out stinks as he managed to complete 18-of-26 passes for just 84 yards. Young is the only quarterback in NFL history to complete at least 18 passes in a game without throwing for 100 yards.

I didn’t think there was anything Canales could do to get himself fired like Frank Reich did 11 games into the 2023 season, but I might have to rethink that. This team is still the worst in the NFL and there has been nothing they could even hang their hat on from either game so far.

Seahawks at Patriots: Better Played Than Expected

You might have imagined a rough offensive game with this one being a “body clock” game for Seattle, which traveled without the services of Kenneth Walker. But the offenses were actually solid in doing what they do best.

The Patriots didn’t ask Jacoby Brissett to throw much, but they found creative ways to get the ball to tight end Hunter Henry for 109 yards. That supported a running game that piled up 185 yards.

But when it came time to pick up a 3rd-and-1 in overtime, Rhamondre Stevenson was stopped and the Patriots decided to punt from their 39. They never saw the ball again, but that is a tough call to go for it as the game is about to be over with a field goal inside the 40 if you don’t get it. Tough spot to come up short after another good rushing effort.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks couldn’t run the ball without Walker, gaining 38 yards on 14 carries with his replacement (Charbonnet). But props to Geno Smith for a big-time passing game (327 yards) without any turnovers.

The Seahawks blocked a 48-yard field goal with 3:54 left that would have made them have to score a touchdown, so add that to the list of “shit that Tom Brady never had to worry about in New England for two decades.”

That allowed the Seahawks to tie with a field goal to force overtime, and the defense’s impressive stop got them the ball back deep in their own end. Geno delivered on the game-winning drive, and the Seahawks paid it off with a 31-yard field goal to win 23-20 in overtime.

The Seahawks are 2-0, and with Tua Tagovailoa probably being out for Miami in Week 3, they have a real shot to go 3-0 with this schedule opportunity.

Rams at Cardinals: Did You Really Doubt Marvin Harrison Jr.?

It’s funny how we had one week of panic over Marvin Harrison Jr. because he caught one ball for 4 yards last week, and apparently the GPS data said he never ran faster than 16 miles per hour.

Well, we can put that one to rest after he caught 4 balls for 130 yards and two touchdowns in the game’s first 12 minutes. He didn’t add to those numbers, but the team also didn’t need him to as they blasted a battered Rams team 41-10 in a game that was expected to be much tighter. Sean McVay usually is on the right end of these blowouts, but this time it was all about the weapons the Cardinals have (MHJ, Trey McBride, James Conner) and the dwindling options for the Rams after losing Cooper Kupp in the game. They already lost Puka Nacua in Week 1.

Throw in Stafford getting sacked 5 times behind a battered line, and this has the potential to turn into 2022 much quicker than any wild card season for the Rams. It’s getting late early.

Next week: Patriots-Jets on Thursday? I’ll be working on the computer. Texans-Vikings suddenly a lot more interesting than it has any business being. Eagles-Saints could be good, or the Saints could roll yet another team if Jalen Hurts is really as mistake prone this year as he looked in Brazil. Malik Willis Revenge Game in Tennessee, or does Jordan Love already come back? Chargering comes to Pittsburgh, or does it? Steelers might actually need to score more than one touchdown in that game. Definitely a lot of pressure in Cowboys-Ravens game as one will be 0-3 or 1-2 after it. So many amusing ways that one could go. Chiefs should be sharper in Atlanta on Sunday night. A somewhat bland MNF doubleheader (Jags-Bills, Commanders-Bengals), but let’s see if Jayden Daniels can drop Cincy to 0-3 and if the Bills can drop the Jags to 0-3.

NFL 2024 Predictions Week 2: Run the Damn Ball (?) Edition

I’m trying to keep my patience with these passing offenses, but it’s still wild to see NFL offenses averaging 187.6 passing yards per game through 17 games to start 2024. That low level hasn’t been seen since 1992.

Not doing much for my MOGA (Make Offense Great Again) theme for the season. Hopefully we won’t add potentially losing a starting quarterback each week too. It was Jordan Love last week, and then it was Tua Tagovailoa with another concussion on Thursday night. Who knows what the future holds there.

Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins looking a bit rusty last week. Low bar for the rookies who played. Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones are apparently still trash. Bryce Young and Will Levis not giving much hope in Week 1. Justin Fields and Jacoby Brissett won games, but they did very little to earn them, and they still feel like placeholders for Russell Wilson and Drake Maye, who both may not even play well this year.

It’s setting up for someone like Baker Mayfield to lead the league in passing yards, or for Derek Carr to take a crack at QBR lead like a 2017 Carson Wentz/Case Keenum situation. But they only played the Commanders and Panthers last week. Bigger tests this week.

But you really have to start wondering if running the ball is making a big comeback. The defenses are not falling for a lot of these dink-and-dunk passing games, and there’s a lack of big plays down the field with more defenses playing their safeties deep.

It’s not necessarily a bad thing, but can’t you at least let me reasonably assume a quarterback can throw for over 200 yards? We haven’t seen that so far this season, but it is early.

This Week’s Articles:

2024 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 2: My new Wednesday column at 365Scores. I think I’ll have a good time with this one now that I got an NFL+ subscription and will be using more stats there. I’m thinking Stat Oddity will focus less on QBs this year so I can save that material for the weekly QB rankings.

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks Week 2: Again, more emphasis on running the ball. I also call Derek Carr’s bluff in Dallas, pick Ja’Marr Chase to put up stats in a loss, and for Sam Darnold to throw multiple picks. Also, you can now get under 43.5 instead of 42.5 for Giants-Commanders, so that’s better than what the odds I had to write about Thursday night.

NFL Week 2 Predictions

Excuse me for trying something different Thursday night with picking Miami in a 3-point game. I still had Buffalo winning the AFC East and Miami missing the playoffs before the season. But I wrote Friday about why I think Tua Tagovailoa should retire after a fourth concussion since 2022. It’s obviously 100% his decision and it’s hard to expect any 26-year-old athlete to just hang them up, but the pattern I see is a quarterback who can’t protect himself from these hits, and each one makes you more likely for more. He’s in a bad spot, and let’s not forget Miami is largely to blame for putting him back out there in that Buffalo game in 2022 and having him on the field in Cincinnati four days later.

We know what Week 2 means. Do we believe last week or double down on our preseason priors about these teams? I ended up hedging on 6 games by picking a different spread and ML winner.

The Saints and Cowboys have been blowing teams out, but now they meet in what could be one of Week 2’s best games. However, I’m calling the Saints’ bluff that they’re a paper tiger who has beaten up 4 NFC South teams over their last six games, and I’m trusting the Cowboys to win that one by a full touchdown at least. Prove me wrong for a change, Derek Carr.

Baker Mayfield is leading one of the few passing offenses I feel like I can trust right now, and the Detroit defense stays giving up huge passing numbers. Expecting good offense in that one and I think the spread is a little too high for the Lions, who weren’t great against a banged-up Rams team.

I’m hedging on Cleveland +3 as I think the world is cruel and will somehow reward Deshaun Watson when his ass shouldn’t even be on the field. But from my Trevor Lawrence research, I think the Browns have a defense that can hold him under 60% completions and take away the short game, which is effectively his only path to victory in the NFL so far. Wild stuff:

49ers lost in Minnesota last year without CMC if I recall, and this could be a trap game too after looking good Monday night. But I just refuse to believe in these Vikings and Darnold yet.

Got the Harbaugh brothers covering with much more trust in John as the Raiders looked bad last week. Riding King Henry to hopefully some big wins this week.

The Seahawks-Patriots game might as well be called Trap 2. One of those teams is starting 2-0 with a defensive rookie coach, and I’m not sure I’d dare bet any significant money on that one. Maybe a Geno INT if Walker is banged up and they don’t have a running game that’s effective? Are the Patriots still reliable for that without Belichick? We’ll find out.

IND-GB is another betting nightmare with Malik Willis possibly (probably?) starting the game. But I look at what Joe Mixon did last week against the Colts and that’s why I’m riding Josh Jacobs in Week 2. Trusting LaFleur’s experience here as they might win that one outright.

Jets have some real problems if they’re getting shredded by Will Levis this week. Should be a bounce-back game.

I’m going Washington over the Giants. Just think Daniel Jones won’t take advantage of that poor defense enough, and Washington had some decent per drive numbers last week in Tampa. But not expecting much from that game.

Cardinals could absolutely beat the Rams with a banged up OL and no Puka Nacua. I just trust McVay and Stafford against that particular opponent.

Steelers-Broncos is absolutely another game you should be careful about putting big money on. Without question a spot for a Tomlin disappointment after winning as a road underdog last week in Atlanta without scoring a touchdown. T.J. Watt is his saving grace here as he could wreck that matchup and get to Bo Nix often. The Steelers should win this game against a rookie quarterback prone to mistakes, but we’ve seen how this one has played out before. Couldn’t even beat rookie Bailey Zappe at home last year, and you know I am not a fan of Justin Fields’ play. He coughed up the ball to give the Broncos a win last year after shredding them for a half.

I’m mostly just mad I’m in the small part of the country who will get Steelers-Broncos on CBS instead of the game I actually want to focus on live, Bengals-Chiefs. It would be typical NFL for the Bengals to lose to the Patriots at home as the biggest spread favorite in Week 1 before going on the road and knocking off the champs. I don’t think it should happen without Tee Higgins available, or at least that’s what it sounds like his status is for Sunday. It would be great to see the Chiefs blow this team out with how much talking they do as Ja’Marr Chase just said Cincy is still the AFC team to beat. But the Chiefs struggle blowing anyone out, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s another 3 or 4-point game late. But I’m still backing the Chiefs to win and drop the Bengals to 0-2. However, that is a good motivating factor to avoid that bad of a start, and crazier things have happened than this.

I repeat, the Bengals just lost 16-10 at home to the Patriots last week.

Don’t have huge expectations for SNF and MNF, but can they go any worse than Thursday night in Miami? I get why the NFL would schedule Bears-Texans this early to showcase two young QBs, but maybe save it for Week 4 or 5 after Caleb Williams gets some experience? Rough start last week despite the Rex Grossman-caliber win. I fully expect Houston to shine and look like a contender. As for Monday night, the Falcons and Kirk Cousins just looked bad to me last week. We’ll see what they can do in Philly, which also had some sloppy play in Brazil but still got the win.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 1

My 2024 NFL season predictions featured “Making Offense Great Again” (MOGA) as the central theme to this season. Things got off to a solid start on Thursday and Friday night (bad field in Brazil withstanding), but Sunday was a kick in the nuts.

Most quarterbacks did not pass for over 200 yards, and we still might have Malik Willis to (not) look forward to with Green Bay next week after Jordan Love’s MCL injury.

I’m getting a late start on this, and I may do a story on it early this week, so I don’t want to get into all the details here. But the offensive revolution might be on hold again unless we let the Saints play the Panthers every week.

So far, 9-of-15 games featured a comeback opportunity, which is very normal. But it’s not so normal to only get one game with a true fourth-quarter lead change from an offense with time left in an entire week of games. It’s not like I expect another to come from Jets-49ers tomorrow night, but we’ll see.

Overall, I enjoyed Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The prime-time games (mostly) delivered, which can make up for a rough Sunday afternoon.

Rams at Lions: Game of the Day

Our first overtime game of 2024 was not a classic, but it was a solid playoff rematch from last year with Matthew Stafford falling to 0-2 against his former team in Detroit.

This game had a lot of injuries as Puka Nacua didn’t play the second half, and the offensive line was banged up badly for the Rams. Not much room for Kyren Williams, who never broke a run longer than 9 yards. Cooper Kupp ended up with 14 catches on 21 targets to make up for the loss of Nacua, and it almost was enough for the night.

Jameson Williams had his breakout game for the Lions with 121 yards and a touchdown. But I’m going to say it’s not ideal when Amon-Ra St. Brown only has 3 catches for 13 yards, one of the least productive games of his career. Jared Goff was up and down, and he got away with a dropped interception in the fourth quarter.

It was a rough game, but credit to the Rams for coming back from a double-digit deficit to taking a late 20-17 lead on a Kupp touchdown. But with a chance to run out the clock the way the Lions did to them in the playoffs, the Rams failed. Goff got his second chance, and he didn’t waste it. The Lions settled for overtime with a 32-yard field goal, but that was the right call as we know Dan Campbell loves a fourth down attempt.

After the way Super Bowl 58 ended, you kind of long for the strategy and system there to return, but we’re stuck with the old modified format. Sure enough, the Lions turned into the most dominant rushing team in the world all of a sudden and ran it right down the Rams’ throat despite little success earlier in the game. The Lions had 7 carries for 60 yards on the 70-yard drive in overtime, finishing things off with a 1-yard touchdown run by David Montgomery to win it 26-20, which means they even covered the spread (Lions -4.5).

Tough loss for an undermanned Rams team that was right there again. But with Jordan Love injured in Green Bay, the Lions look to be in good shape relative to the rest of the NFC North right now.

Patriots at Bengals: Upset of the Week

I should have known better that this game was trouble when it had the biggest spread (Bengals by 8+) of Week 1 as the Bengals simply shit the bed to start the season more often than not. Blame Zac Taylor, blame Joe Burrow, but they keep doing this.

At some point, you have to acknowledge the facts. I don’t want to hear that Tee Higgins was out, or that they lost Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon in the offseason. What happened to “watch out for Iosivas” this season? I don’t even want to hear that Ja’Marr Chase had food poisoning this weekend. Chase played and he caught all 6 targets for 62 yards.

The real question should be why not more targets? We saw what Matthew Stafford, a real gamer, did on Sunday night with an absurdly injured offensive line, missing his tight end (Tyler Higbee), and Puka Nacua left with an injury suffered in the first half. He targeted Cooper Kupp 21 times and did what he could.

If Burrow is as good as people say he is, then he needs to overcome some of these shortcomings more often. This was another poor, lifeless Week 1 performance from the offense, which had 224 yards and 13 first downs.

Now there weren’t many possessions in this game, and Tanner Hudson blew points with a fumble inside the 3-yard line, which sounds like old-school New England defense to me.

The Patriots grinded things out on the ground with Rhamondre Stevenson rushing 25 times for 120 yards. Jacoby Brissett only passe for 121 yards, but he didn’t have turnovers and he only took a single sack. It was just enough

But even when the Bengals got the ball back in a 16-10 game with 3:04 left at their own 10, that was a great setup for a heroic Burrow drive. Instead, it was a three-and-out, and despite having four clock stoppages, the defense couldn’t get the ball back. The Patriots ran out the clock.

But you have to do better than a 3-and-out that deep in that spot. Just terrible, and now we’ll see if they can work their magic against the Chiefs next week to avoid starting 0-2.

Panthers at Saints: Rout of the Week

Statistically, the Saints were one of the most dominant teams on the scoreboard late in the 2023 season, and that’s a good trait for a team to make the playoffs the following year. I’m not taking any victory lap yet after they smashed the god damn Carolina Panthers, but on a Sunday where most NFL teams didn’t look great, the Saints’ utter dominance in every facet was impressive.

Remember, the Panthers were supposed to be improved this year with a new coach (Dave Canales), new weapons, and Bryce Young no longer being a rookie. But wow, Young may be heading down the path of all-time bust if this continues.

The Saints scored 17 points before Young even completed a pass. That’s hard to do. That also made it nearly impossible for him to succeed in this game, but he never settled in and the Saints continued blowing the Panthers out until it was 47-10.

Thankfully, we’ll see the Saints play in Dallas next week, so there’s a great chance to see where this team really is. As for Carolina, yikes, this is about the worst way to start after a 2-15 season where you never took a snap with a fourth-quarter lead.

Cowboys at Browns: The Only Way to Make Deshaun Watson Worse Is to Give Him Tom Brady’s Voice

Here’s what the Cowboys-Browns game featured:

  • Dak Prescott, the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history at $60 million per season after finally getting his extension Sunday morning despite never reaching the NFC Championship Game.
  • Deshaun Watson, who made the largest $230 million theft in NFL history when he fleeced the Browns in a 2022 trade for a fully-guaranteed contract despite more than two dozens accusations of sexual misconduct.
  • Tom Brady, the highest-paid broadcaster in NFL history at $37.5 million, more than double the next closest person despite zero experience in the broadcasting booth.

Is it any surprise the game turned out to be a piece of shit?

Prescott had one of his most forgettable games in the Mike McCarthy era. After a good start, his special teams basically put up the last 19 points with a punt return touchdown and four field goal drives that covered a whopping 42 yards between them.

And he was still easily the best quarterback on the field. The only way you could have made Watson worse was if you gave him Tom Brady’s voice. But I’m not going to get into why I think Brady has the completely wrong voice for this job that he stole from a more deserving Greg Olsen.

But Watson again looked terrible, and while you can respect a good Dallas front, the sack merchant was ever present with multiple turnovers and an inability to sustain offense. Even worse, Watson’s arm just looked shot. I don’t know how Kevin Stefanski doesn’t just bench him and go with Jameis Winston, but this continues to be the worst trade in NFL history and the biggest sunk cost you’ll ever see.

Ezekiel Elliott looked youthful and strong compared to washed-up Watson. It’s a miracle the Cowboys were ever a 2.5-point underdog in this one.

Jaguars at Dolphins: The One Where Tyreek Got Arrested First

You can’t make this stuff up. Tyreek Hill went from nearly going downtown with police officers, under arrest for a verbal altercation after a traffic violation, to catching the longest touchdown reception (80 yards) of his NFL career to spark a comeback win by Miami.

The Dolphins were very sluggish, down 14-0 to the Jaguars, before Hill took off for the end zone and even recreated the handcuffing incident he had in the morning. Watching that footage play out after watching the new Netflix movie Rebel Ridge (it’s great) the night before is crazy.

This is the third article tonight I’m writing about this incident, so I’m a little tongue-tied about it. But I really thought I was looking at AI images when I opened my phone Sunday morning and saw Hill handcuffed. Only the multiple videos and tweets from Adam Schefter clued me in this was real.

But what a major disappointment for the Jaguars, who went scoreless after halftime. They had a 17-7 lead and were 13 yards away from the end zone late in the third quarter. But Travis Etienne fumbled at the 3-yard line, one of the weekend’s biggest turnovers, and that completely changed the game. A play later, it was Tyreek for 80 yards.

The big plays won it for Miami, and kicker Jason Sanders redeemed himself for an earlier miss with a 52-yard field goal at the buzzer to win 20-17. Miami never led in the game before that final snap.

Curious to see where things go from here with the team’s biggest nemesis, Buffalo, coming into town Thursday night.

Titans at Bears: The Comeback Win I Sorta Predicted for Caleb Williams’ Debut

One of my favorite picks this week was Chicago getting a clutch, comeback win in Caleb Williams’ debut to start helping out Matt Eberflus’ league-worst record in such games.

Well, it happened. It didn’t happen in any way I imagined, but it was a classic throwback to the 2006 Bears and the way they came back to beat the Cardinals on Monday Night Football with multiple return touchdowns.

The Bears were awful offensively, trailed 17-0, and only finished with 148 yards of offense. The preseason is not the regular season, and Caleb was 14-of-29 for 93 yards. On the bright side, he only took two sacks and threw no picks. Jusitn Fields probably loses this game if given the chance.

But Williams was not doing much to help the comeback effort. The Bears blocked a punt for a touchdown. They also turned a strip-sack of Will Levis into a field goal drive that netted 1 yard.

But it ended up being one of the hardest games I’ve ever had to catalogue for 4QC/GWD purposes:

  • Chicago trailed 17-10 to start the fourth quarter and had a drive going with Williams.
  • The 44-yard drive ended with a 50-yard field goal to make it 17-13.
  • Levis coughed up the ball, setting up that 1-yard drive for a field goal to make it 17-16.
  • Technically, you just had two 4QC/GWD attempts, and the offense chipped in two field goals.
  • Four plays later, Will Levis forced a pick-six, and there goes the go-ahead score for Chicago at 22-17.
  • Williams completed a 2-point conversion pass to D’Andre Swift to make it 24-17, an important 7-point cushion.

It’s clearly a team fourth-quarter comeback. It’s clearly not a game-winning drive since the pick-six is not a drive. The 2PC was important though, and that makes me wonder if I should be counting it. But I’m not going to. At the same time, I’m giving Williams the 4QC win since without the two field goals from the offense, the pick-six doesn’t win the game for Chicago.

It’s a messy situation, and it’s all the fault of Levis. Why in the hell would you force this pass up on 3rd-and-6 with the lead? Just take the sack and live another drive.

That is seriously some 2001 or 2006 Bears bullshit. Also, of course Levis couldn’t make up for it on the final drive, getting picked again.

Williams did not impress, but Levis disappointed even more as he should be further along than this. I’m really not sure about that 2023 draft class outside of C.J. Stroud.

Texans at Colts: My MVP Gets It Done in Wild Week 1 Game

C.J. Stroud is my MVP pick this year, but how about those new additions in Houston? Stefon Diggs caught both of Stroud’s touchdowns, but it was running back Joe Mixon who had the huge game with 159 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The Colts had few answers for this offense, especially in must-stop situations.

But the player I thought was the biggest wild card this year is Anthony Richardson, and he did not disappoint with his “boom-or-bust” playing label. He was only 9-of-19 passing, but he had three different completions for over 50 yards, including a 60-yard touchdown pass to Alec Pierce that was one of the longest and most impressive touchdown throws I’ve ever seen in the NFL:

He even slid before throwing it, so he didn’t fully step into it. Incredible play. Too bad he misses some of the easy ones, so if he can correct that with experience, then the Colts should have something here.

At least offensively. The defense could not stop Houston in the fourth quarter despite the offense making it a 2-point game twice. The Texans responded with touchdowns twice, including a play I loved the decision for from coach DeMeco Ryans.

The Texans were up 22-20 and faced 4th-and-2 at the 2-yard line with 4:45 left. Why kick the field goal to go up 5 points and risk losing on a touchdown in the final minute? Go for the jugular, which they did, and Diggs caught his second touchdown to make it a 2-score game again.

But even after Indy scored to again make it 29-27, the four-minute offense went to work with a couple of first downs, including a 3rd-and-11 conversion for 12 yards from Stroud to Nico Collins, a Colts killer.

It’s only one game, but again, this is why I’m big on the Texans to be a new rival to the Chiefs. If you get Stroud playing like this, he’s someone who could outduel Mahomes in a fourth quarter and keep the ball away from him in a one-score game.

Green Bay, my Super Bowl pick, almost broke my heart Friday night with the sloppy performance and Love injury. But the Texans, who were my Green Bay equivalent in the AFC to possibly derail Kansas City’s three-peat, gave me some confidence with this performance.

But let’s keep it going and get even better.

Steelers at Falcons: The Six Field Goal Mike Tomlin Special

I ended up (regrettably) watching most of this game. Basically, it was the kind of Chicago Bears win you would have thought Justin Fields could have enjoyed there. Pretty lousy offense, Fields flirting with disaster on fumbled snaps to start the game, bad third-down sacks as the coaching staff didn’t trust him, and the defense and special teams were fantastic for the Steelers.

T.J. Watt and kicker Chris Boswell basically won the game for them. We know the last Mike Tomlin playoff win was 18-16 on six field goals against the 2016 Chiefs. He kind of did it again as Boswell made six field goals and most of them were very long.

Watt was a beast again, and Kirk Cousins looked very rusty and slow in a new offense after his Achilles tear. Not a good debut at all for him, and it’s as if Arthur Smith never left. Hell, he was in the building calling multiple runs on 3rd-and-long in this game.

But this is how the Steelers win. Keep it close and hope that a fumble happens when a receiver is running in motion for Atlanta. That really did happen, and of course, Watt was the one there to pounce on the ball in a big moment.

But Cousins had his chances to be the hero as Fields – no shocker – couldn’t put the game away. But he was picked with 2:34 left and then sacked by Watt on the final snap to mercifully end this one.

The Steelers have some compensation incentives to not keep playing Fields, and I think we’ll see Russell Wilson eventually. But this kind of offense isn’t going to beat that many teams in the NFL without superhuman efforts from Watt.

He might be up to the task though, especially if the idea that linemen playing closer to the line instead of leaning back is a point of emphasis to cut down on those illegal formations.

However, I’m still puzzled as to why they traded Diontae Johnson. This passing game is George Pickens or bust right now.

Cardinals at Bills: The Almost Upset of the Week

I said in my Week 1 predictions that I could easily see Arizona winning this as an upset and referendum on Buffalo getting rid of Stefon Diggs. But even when the Cardinals went up 10, I wasn’t that worried as I noticed the Cardinals had the ball for 13 of the first 15 minutes. Buffalo just needed the ball.

Josh Allen was facing a no-name defense, so he didn’t need big-name receivers. He had plenty enough around him, but I was surprised that Dalton Kincaid only had an 11-yard catch. But I was confident in rookie Keon Coleman (51 yards led team in receiving) having an impressive debut against this secondary to alleviate some concerns after the team let the Chiefs get Xavier Worthy at No. 28. That could still be a huge regret, but Coleman was always going to produce this week.

By game’s end, Buffalo even pulled ahead in time of possession, so no big deal. But the Cardinals still made this interesting thanks to a 96-yard kickoff return touchdown in the fourth quarter. I’m not a big fan of the dynamic kickoff so far, but it is producing better field position and already a touchdown like that.

But in a 31-28 game, the Bills nearly botched this badly. They had a chance to put the game away but Allen was stuffed on a 3rd-and-2 run. Instead of going for the 4th-and-3 at the Arizona 21 at the 2-minute warning, they kicked the short field goal and settled for a 34-28 lead with Arizona having all three timeouts to drive for the winning touchdown.

To make it worse, the Bills’ kickoff went out of bounds, so Murray only needed 60 yards. He’s done far harder before, including against Buffalo in 2020 (“Hail Murray”). When you have Allen, you should be going for that fourth down. The 6-point lead is one of the worst places to be. At least if it was still a 31-28 game, you can count on Arizona to probably kick a field goal instead of go for a fourth down.

But the Cardinals had their chances, and it’s my understanding rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. was left wide open on the drive for a potential touchdown, but Kyler didn’t see it or didn’t think to throw to him. The drive ended with Murray throwing incomplete on 4th-and-7 at the Buffalo 29 with 26 seconds left.

Crisis adverted – barely. But the Bills will need to clean some things up in Miami this week, and Allen reportedly has a left hand injury that he suffered on one of his touchdown runs. Let that sink in.

Vikings at Giants: Wrong Improbable New York QB Breakout Year

I expected both of these teams to be terrible this year, and I still believe that’s highly possible. But one of my worst picks this week was the Giants as the upset special at home. I got a little too focused on what happened in 2022, ignoring 2023, and the fact that Daniel Jones is just not the answer. At least with Darnold, we haven’t seen him fail as many times, and he has some solid talent around him in a pass-friendly offense.

Darnold started this game on fire, then the team had little reason to score more as Jones wasn’t getting the job done. But this pick-6, while a very athletic play by the defender, is a good example of why this season needs to be Jones’ last in New York.

And what the hell were those jerseys? Alas, Andrew Van Ginkel is apparently the master of the fast interception.

Raiders at Chargers: Can Jim Harbaugh Go 5-1 in the AFC West?

Coach Jim Harbaugh made his NFL return with a win, 22-10 over the Raiders. He came here to make Justin Herbert’s life easier, and so far, it worked. The Chargers had just 11 first downs, the fewest in the Herbert era. They gave Herbert 170 rushing yards while he only threw for 144, another rarity.

The passing game is a work in progress with these young receivers, but how about J.K. Dobbins rushing for 135 yards in his team debut? He even ripped off a 61-yard play. Great to see after injuries robbed him in Baltimore from more success.

But mission successful in not blowing a two-score lead in the fourth quarter. However, the Chargers got some help from new Raiders coach Antonio Pierce, a hire I was not supportive for. In his first game without the interim tag, he made a big mistake in a 16-10 game with 7:15 left. The Raiders faced a 4th-and-1 at the Los Angeles 43 and decided to punt.

I can understand the old-school philosophy there as that’s what you used to do in those situations. But with under half a quarter left, you’re looking at maybe one more possession before you start relying on all your timeouts. You also have to remember that converting 4th-and-1 is in your favor (> 50%). I think punting was a big mistake, and you have to think it won’t be the last time we see this from Pierce, the big flaw in hiring a defensive-minded coach who only sees the old ways of the game he played.

To make it worse, the defense he relies on gave up a 92-yard touchdown drive thanks to the big Dobbins run. Gardner Minshew was picked to end it, but he’s probably still their best choice for a quarterback for the rest of the year despite only 10 points in Los Angeles.

But with the way the Raiders and Broncos look, who says Harbaugh can’t steal a game against the Chiefs and possibly go 5-1 in the division to fuel a playoff berth as a wild card? That was one of my main thoughts on the Chargers all along, but after Week 1, I feel even better about it.

Broncos at Seahawks: Sean Payton on His Week 1 Shit Again

The Seahawks are going to have some elite defensive stats in this one, the debut and first win for coach Mike Macdonald. But for the second year in a row, Sean Payton went into a Week 1 and watched his quarterback put on a dink-and-dunk performance that was literally for the record books.

Fewest Passing Yards by Number of Completions in NFL history (1950-2024)

After Russell Wilson had a record-low 177 passing yards on 27 completions against the Raiders last year, rookie Bo Nix did him one better and had just 138 yards on 26 completions. That’s the fewest passing yards in a game with more than 25 completions in NFL history.

This was rough, and Nix could have easily had more than the two picks he threw as Seattle dropped several. But it’s not like he had any real help out there other than his defense coming up with a pair of safeties, something you almost never see. But Nix ended up leading the Broncos with 35 rushing yards, including a late touchdown that made it mildly interesting at 26-20.

Geno Smith had some mistakes, but he also had a 34-yard touchdown run that he couldn’t possibly have done last year when he was playing hurt. When it came to icing the game with a late third-down pass to deny Nix getting a shot at a game-winning drive, Smith found Tyler Lockett for 9 yards to end things.

Enough to be encouraged about for Seattle, but we really need to see this defense play a quarterback who knows what they’re doing. Granted, there may not be a ton of those in the league right now. But even Jacoby Brissett will be a step up in competition in New England next week.

Started to get a sense of how Nix completed over 77% of his passes at Oregon last year to set an NCAA single-season record. He’ll take literally any short completion you will give him no matter how fruitless the gain is. But you can’t end his career after one game. He’s just a rookie, albeit an older one.

Commanders at Buccaneers: It’s Probably Not 2012 in Washington Again

I guess the hope all along with Washington repeating its 2012 season success with Robert Griffin III would be a surprisingly good season from Jayden Daniels. While he did make me very happy in his debut with a 2-touchdown performance on the ground (+2200 odds), it wasn’t the kind of passing performance you wanted to see. Terry McLaurin (17 yards) barely did a thing. More than half of Daniels’ 184 passing yards went to running backs.

But he ran the ball 16 times for 88 yards and will be viable at the goal line. He just better tighten that helmet as it came loose a couple of times and nearly cost him that second touchdown. I’d be quite bitter right now if that happened.

But Dan Quinn’s defense was no real improvement on last year when they were the worst in the league under Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio. Baker Mayfield picked them apart with 24-of-30 for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns. Mike Evans caught two scores and still has WR1 skills.

Tampa had one of the most thorough and complete performances of any team this week. Not that it should be that surprising against a rebuilt Washington team with a long way to go. But it’s a very good start with Detroit up next.

Next week: Are we peaking early with Bills-Dolphins on Thursday night? Saints-Cowboys could be interesting, or it could be a blowout. Either way, we get to test the Saints right away against a non-Carolina opponent, so that’s great. Bengals-Chiefs loses some luster with the New England upset, but it’d be typical NFL for Cincinnati to win that one to avoid an 0-2 start. That Chicago offense isn’t ready for prime time, so good luck in Houston. Ditto with Kirk Cousins going to Philly on his least favorite day of the week.

NFL 2024 Week 1 Predictions: Home Favorites Edition

It’s always one of the longest weeks of my year to get ready for Week 1 of a new NFL season. I thought I put together some well-reasoned 2024 season predictions with the Green Bay Packers becoming the latest NFC flash in the pan to reach the big game.

After one game last night in Brazil, I fear my vision might be cooked. Nothing’s getting me out of bed Saturday until I can get at least 6 hours of sleep after this long week, but I hate the thought of waking up to see “Jordan Love out for season”. He was injured (ankle or worse) in the final seconds of a 34-29 loss that didn’t make the Packers look ready for the next level.

It didn’t make the Eagles, my NFC East pick, look like much either. But I like to think the poor field conditions caused a lot of the bad plays by both teams. But even before he was injured, Love looked erratic and inaccurate like he did early in 2023. Hurts made some really boneheaded plays all night, and even the Tush Push failed multiple times as he struggled with his new center. I guess Jason Kelce was pretty damn important.

But again, you like to think both teams can move on and will play on better fields going forward. Just a sloppy Week 1 game on a soccer field in South America. But in Green Bay’s case, we don’t know if they have to move on with signing Ryan Tannehill or something like that, because they sure as shit aren’t going anywhere with Malik Willis starting games. I just hope it’s a high-ankle sprain and Love can be back in a couple of weeks.

Guess I’ll just have to wake up and face the dread of what the news will be there. Is this what happens when I finally pick the Packers for the first time in 14 years to win the Super Bowl? Yikes.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 1 Predictions

I’ve been doing this so many years that I should have been adding the year in the title as to not create so many dupes with the URL. Whoops. But here’s where I’m at for Week 1.

Remember, Week 1 is not the time to go crazy. So much uncertainty and new things to learn.

One thing I love this year is the overs, and they’re already 2-0. We’ve had unders being profitable 3 years in a row, and I think we see more scoring this year. It’ll help if teams are just going to do touchbacks on the dynamic kickoff and give up the 30-yard line to start most drives.

But what stood out to me with this schedule in Week 1 is that 14 of the 16 games have a home favorite. Granted, Packers-Eagles was played on a (shitty) neutral field, but the only road favorites are the Texans and Vikings, and I like the Giants to upset the Vikings since I’m not sure when else they’ll be able to win this year.

But this is a ton of home favorites in Week 1. The 2021 season only had 9 home favorites and they were 2-7 ATS. I wanted to pick more underdogs ATS, but here’s why I struggled to do so:

Justin Fields might start for the Steelers since Russell Wilson’s calf is acting up, and you know I think the worst of Fields. The Steelers may still lose by 3 points and cover, but I’m not trusting them this week in Atlanta to score enough.

I think Miami plays its best under Mike McDaniel in September, and they have better weapons than the Jaguars and I just expect them to cover 3.5.

I wanted to go Patriots +7.5 since I think Jacoby Brissett could surprise people with competitiveness, the Bengals are a bit overrated as usual, and they have injuries at WR. However, I also have my narrative that the Patriots are going to be terrible under Jerod Mayo this year, so even if the Bengals stumble to a 24-16 win, that’s good enough to cover.

Carolina is another team I’d like to pull the trigger on at +3.5 in New Orleans, but I need to see it first from Bryce Young and Dave Canales.

I absolutely can see the Cardinals upsetting Buffalo (-6.5) with the takes going wild about trading Diggs, letting the Chiefs get Worthy, leaving Josh Allen without weapons, etc. I can see it. But on the other hand, I see a weak Arizona roster on defense, the Bills should still play good defense, and we know Buffalo wins a lot of games in blowout fashion. So I can’t trust Arizona on the road yet.

A statement win for Jim Harbaugh with the Chargers instead of choking or barely hanging on against the Chargers is my expectation this week. Couldn’t go there even though we know the Chargers are always up for some Chargering. But hopefully that’s a new era starting.

Then I think the other rookie QBs are in tough spots on the road with Bo Nix facing a new Mike Macdonald defense and Jayden Daniels on the road against Todd Bowles. Not liking those matchups even if I don’t think either game is necessarily a blowout.

Can the Rams win in Detroit? Sure, it was 24-23 in January. But this is just my narrative that I think Detroit looks better defensively, they force Stafford into some mistakes, and they are up 5-8 late to get the cover.

Then on Monday night, who knows what to expect from Aaron Rodgers with the Jets? Try lasting a full drive for starters. But we know the 49ers have been a real nemesis in his career, especially when the 49ers are a great team, which they still should be this year. So, I just can’t trust the Jets in that one right now.

Definitely excited to see what happens this week. Not a ton of great games on Sunday, but a lot of interesting matchups to start figuring out what we’re going to see this year.

I’ll be posting a grid of picks for the last 14 games on Twitter late Saturday night.

2024 NFL Predictions

Going into my 14th season of NFL coverage, I would just once like to say I predicted that year’s Super Bowl winner correctly before the season. Seven times I ended up getting a Super Bowl team right, but all seven times I managed to have the wrong game outcome.

Just my luck. I probably couldn’t predict seven coin flips in a row but I managed that.

But I’m on a three-year drought of not getting any Super Bowl teams right. Last year, I thought I had something cooking with Ravens over Cowboys as it was a year set up beautifully for Baltimore with the No. 1 seed and the best defense. Even Dak Prescott had arguably his best year and the Cowboys were blowing out scrubs left and right. The Ravens were blowing out a lot of good teams, so maybe it’d work out.

But we know what happened in January. The same thing that always seems to happen for the Cowboys (since 1996) and for the Ravens with Lamar Jackson. I won’t be revisiting that matchup anytime soon.

Is 2024 a layup with the Kansas City Chiefs going for a historic three-peat with a roster that’s quite arguably better than their last two teams? Are they just inevitable as long as their core is intact? We’ll see.

The three-peat is clearly the No. 1 story this season. But my vision for this year’s narrative has been on my mind since February. One fanbase will be happy to see I’m picking them for the first time here, but don’t get too excited when you look back at my track record of picking the ultimate winner.

Right Super Bowl team, wrong Super Bowl outcome.

My 2023 NFL predictions were the second-most accurate I’ve done since 2013. I’m proud of what I came up with for the AFC where I nailed the Ravens as a 13-4 No. 1 seed, nailed the Bills finishing No. 2 ahead of No. 3 Kansas City, and also had the No. 7 Steelers with a 10-7 record. A perfect 4-for-4 on those picks even if I had no clue Mason Rudolph would be leading the playoff charge for the Steelers at the end there.

Of course, my other picks flopped in the AFC as 2023 was just a brutal year for quarterback injuries. Trevor Lawrence got a little banged up late in the season and never won another start after that. The Jets lost Aaron Rodgers on opening night to a torn Achilles, and Joe Burrow neither started (calf) nor ended (wrist) the season healthy. That killed those picks, and I really didn’t see Houston coming so fast. Much more on them later.

My theme for 2023 was uncertainty. This year, it’s MOGA: Make Offense Great Again.

We can blame 2023 on a quarter of the league’s starting quarterbacks going down with a season-ending injury (shades of 2017). Hopefully, that means regression to the mean in 2024, and we see fewer serious injuries. We already lost rookie J.J. McCarthy in the preseason and are stuck with Sam Darnold in Minnesota, but they never really factored into the big picture of 2024 anyway.

But for as much as people try to pretend the NFL has turned into the (classic) Pac-12 with offense, that’s simply not the case. Ever since the 2020 COVID year with the empty stadiums led to record-setting offensive numbers, we continue to see a decline.

In fact, points and yards have decreased 3 years in a row in the NFL, which has only happened one other time since the 1970 merger. Since 2022, teams are scoring just under 22.0 points per game, which hasn’t happened in consecutive years since 2006-07.

If you bet the under in every NFL game, you would have been profitable (better than 52.38%) in each of the last three seasons. So, let’s look for more points this year, more touchdowns, and more comebacks.

After a historic 2022 season for comeback wins, things regressed to the rates we’ve seen in recent seasons. But we still went from 85 comebacks in the fourth quarter to 68 last year. More games were early runaways as 73.7% of the teams who led after the first quarter in 2023 won the game, up from about 60% in previous seasons.

Besides regression and better quarterback health, what else could facilitate more scoring? Let’s see what this new dynamic kickoff does. I was skeptical of it from the preseason, but when I crunched the numbers, 26.0 yards per kick return would be the highest season in NFL history. Touchbacks in the end zone can still happen, but the ball will go to the 30 instead of the 25. There should also be about triple the number of returnable kicks from 2023’s touchback fest.

Add that together and you get better starting field position for the league, which should improve scoring. May not help with the yardage numbers, but we’ll see what happens.

More offense, fewer blowouts. That’s what I’m looking for this year. I also am taking a bold approach in counting on two teams with quarterbacks who have only been a starter for one season to move into the elite class this year. If they got an early start on their success last year, I’m just trying to get there early in 2024 for what could be the start of something great.

But it’s definitely adding more risk than usual to my picks as things could always go badly there with disappointment. If all else fails, I’ll just back the three-peat as we all wait to see if the Chiefs make history.

This summer, I only did one full preview per team at 365Scores, but that project was heavy work night after night going back to July. I only finished with the Chiefs on Tuesday, and that ended up being a 7,300-word epic. Then I also wrote out 5,000 words on my NFL betting picks for the season (award winners, playoff teams, Super Bowl teams), so I’m not exactly looking to jump into 8,000 words here for this annual blog post of my final record predictions.

But I have a standard to uphold for myself, and this is still the only place where I post my final record predictions for each team. So, let’s get into it, and again, if you want more detailed analysis and writing about these teams rather than my 25th hour thoughts below, you have to go read the linked previews at 365Scores.

Note: Some of the over/under picks in these articles were subject to change as I only made my final record predictions over the weekend after going through the schedule. My final, official picks are as presented below.

NFL 2024 Predictions

AFC WEST

1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

365Scores Preview: I looked at just how historic the Super Bowl three-peat would be, the new flaws the Chiefs had to deal with in 2023 that led to their most difficult regular season yet, and the subtle changes they made to emerge on top once again in the playoffs. I also tackled the myth that they’re beating up weak competition when the reality is they’ve done the best job of limiting their rivals from having championship success. The Chiefs only have the No. 4 scoring differential since 2019, but they are 6-0 in the playoffs against the teams (49ers, Ravens, Bills) ranked ahead of them. That’s how you end up with a dynasty and keep those teams ringless.

But another thing I talked about in the preview is the chances we haven’t seen the best Kansas City teams yet around Patrick Mahomes. If you make the offense faster and more efficient than last year, and if the defense can stay in the top 8 or so, then you might be looking at the 2024 Chiefs as their best team yet.

However, it’s still a team held together by its core pieces of Mahomes, Andy Reid, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, and Steve Spagnuolo. That core covers up a lot of the flaws, and we’ll just have to see if letting L’Jarius Sneed go at corner comes back to haunt them if they face a team with better receiving talent that has a quarterback who can duel with Mahomes.

There are a couple out there I think, and they’re not the usual suspects. It’s time for some new rivals for the Chiefs to vanquish if they want to keep the throne for another year. This is probably the only great shot Mahomes will have at a three-peat, which would give him an edge as the first to do it in the hardest era to do it. It took 19 years just for a team to repeat, the longest drought in history. A three-peat is insane in this game.

So, that way even if Mahomes never wins a certain number of rings, he’d still have the three-peat as his ace in the hole. It’s such a huge opportunity for Kansas City.

2. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)

365Scores Preview: Of the 8 new head coach hirings this season, Jim Harbaugh to the Chargers is my top pick. He makes history with Sean Payton and Andy Reid in the AFC West this week as this becomes a division where three coaches have won over 60% of their games. That’s never happened since the merger. He doesn’t have a roster as talented as the one he took over in 2011 in San Francisco, but he knows he has the quarterback in place with Justin Herbert.

I obviously think highly of Herbert, and more people would if they ever saw him get a legitimate defense. The 2023 Chargers had 5 lost comebacks, which I believe to be a single-season record in all of NFL history. That’s five games (three with Herbert) where they trailed in the fourth quarter, took the lead, and still lost. That’s maddening and so on brand for the Chargers.

I liked the draft picks of Joe Alt and Ladd McConkey instead of taking Malik Nabers at No. 5. But it sure would have been nice to keep Keenan Allen around. Definitely some young receivers to deal with, but I think Harbaugh and Herbert are going to figure it out and they should have a winning record this year.

3. Denver Broncos (6-11)

365Scores Preview: I am excited to see how Sean Payton fares with a rookie quarterback he can mold from Day 1 in Bo Nix. Go figure, he drafted someone who set a NCAA single-season record for completion percentage at Oregon. That was Drew Brees’ money stat in the NFL, but it would be hard for Nix to ever come close to the legacy of Brees in the NFL. Still, I think there’s some potential here and at least he looked confident in the preseason and led some scoring drives.

But still a lot of roster flaws here. A 6-11 record would actually be the worst of Payton’s career as he’s never done worse than 7-9 before. But I had to find wins for other teams and Denver just didn’t stand out enough on defense to give them the benefit of the doubt. The preview goes into how the 2023 Broncos had three different identities in one season.

We’ll see what Payton can cook up with Nix in a fresh direction after they swallowed $85 million in dead cap money to get rid of Russell Wilson. I still can’t believe how poorly that went these last two years.

4. Las Vegas Raiders (4-13)

365Scores Preview: I spent much of this preview questioning the hiring of Antonio Pierce, who was never a defensive coordinator in the NFL, lost a 3-0 home game indoors to the Vikings, relied on two defensive touchdowns in 7 seconds to upset the Chiefs in a game where they couldn’t complete a pass after the opening quarter, and then the Broncos gave up in Week 18 when they beat him. The 63-21 win over the Chargers was the team giving up on Brandon Staley after Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen were lost for the season.

I just don’t see it with Pierce, and it’s even worse when you saddle him with the least impressive quarterback situation in the NFL in 2024. Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell? What’s the plan there? Getting Deion Sanders’ son in 2025?

I hope Brock Bowers is legit at tight end, because elite tight ends are fun to watch. Don’t expect to see much this year though given the quarterback situation and Pierce’s likely one-sided coaching that will cater to the defense.

Yeah, they’ll probably win a few more games than this, but I’ll be damned if I could find them on the schedule. I already have them getting wins over the Rams and Jaguars.

NFC WEST

1. San Francisco 49ers (12-5)

365Scores Preview: What more can you even say at this point? They should have gone last in overtime on offense. Guess they’ll know better next time, but this team has to be close to running out of chances after not turning four recent NFC Championship Game appearances into a ring. They might get passed over by Green Bay this year in the NFC if they’re not careful. At least Brock Purdy showed his rookie season wasn’t a fluke. He didn’t lose that Super Bowl for them either. He just didn’t win it.

The division and their talent should keep them near the top again. But it’s getting a little stale and tiring with this team. Glad they finally ended the Brandon Aiyuk saga, the most annoying story of the offseason. Should have just paid him months ago. He’s their best weapon for the long term.

2. Los Angeles Rams (9-8)

365Scores Preview: I definitely missed on this team last year, but that’s because I had no expectations for Puka Nacua looking more like Cooper Kupp than Kupp did. Incredible rookie season for a fifth-round pick. I’d sneakily pick him for OPOY if I knew I could trust him to stay healthy and that Stafford wouldn’t still rely on Kupp so much.

But you lose Aaron Donald and that’s tough to replace. They also beat up on some not-so-great teams down the stretch last year after a poor start despite Puka’s hot start. I’m still not fully sold on this team and could see them finish 9-8 and have to see if the tie-breakers work in their favor or not. Remember, that 10th win last year was against San Francisco’s backups in a battle of backups where Carson Wentz of all people led a comeback win.

3. Seattle Seahawks (8-9)

365Scores Preview: A little dark horse team if rookie coach Mike Macdonald can get the defense up to par right away. But I think that’ll take at least a second season. Still, a better defense is exactly what Geno Smith and a talented offense needed the last two years to do better than 9-8 records that don’t always qualify for a playoff spot.

I’m not picking them to get it done, but I can at least understand what they’re cooking in Seattle if they do pull off a playoff year.

4. Arizona Cardinals (6-11)

365Scores Preview: I’m all for staying put at No. 4 and drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. I’m also down with the Cardinals winning a few more games than last year with what will hopefully be a full season from Kyler Murray, but the lack of defensive stars still bothers me here. In going through the schedule, the Cardinals became an easy choice for a loss when I felt they had to play a team with a better quarterback as I just didn’t trust that defense to win a shootout with Murray.

But I’m not against Jonathan Gannon yet or anything. Just don’t think the defensive rebuild is going that great.

AFC EAST

1. Buffalo Bills (11-6)

365Scores Preview: This could be one of the best division races we’ve ever seen as it’s legitimately between three teams. Everyone but New England, which is music to my ears.

In the end, I still put the Bills on top as I just trust Josh Allen more than I do a 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers coming off a torn Achilles, an of course over Tua Tagovailoa. The Bills likely moved on from Stefon Diggs at the right time. But the receivers are young and raw, and I think you’re going to see the Bills struggle in some of those bigger showdowns with the Ravens, Chiefs, Texans, and more this year.

But I still think they are balanced enough and know how to win and won’t get swept by the Jets. They’re still capable of sweeping Miami too.

2. New York Jets (11-6)

365Scores Preview: Yeah, “This should be fun” he said last year. Aaron Rodgers lasted 4 snaps and we were treated to a ton of island games with Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle at quarterback. Real fun.

But I recycled a lot of the 2023 preview for 2024 since it feels like the same situation and questions, just a year older and more concerned about Rodgers’ health. We haven’t seen him play at a high level since 2021.

Yet, I find myself going with the optimistic approach that Rodgers will be good and the defense will still be great. They also upgraded the offensive line and should run the ball better. That combo sounds like enough to win 11 games against a schedule that is more balanced and forgiving than last year.

But the Jets are definitely one of the biggest wild cards in 2024 as you can see anything from 12-loss disaster to a No. 1 seed. Shit, maybe we’ll even see a Mahomes vs. Rodgers playoff game. About damn time.

3. Miami Dolphins (9-8)

365Scores Preview: My paper tiger team. Sure, they might have the fastest offense in history, but where does it go when they go on the road and play a good team? That’s 10 straight losses for Mike McDaniel on the road against a playoff team.

The Dolphins swept the Jets last year. With Rodgers back, I have that turning around, which is a big reason why I only have the Dolphins at 9-8. Is that enough for the wild card? We’ll see below.

4. New England Patriots (3-14)

365Scores Preview: I’ll be shocked if they’re not starting Drake Maye by Week 5. Jerod Mayo is in over his head, and yes, Bill Belichick the GM has a lot to do with the poor state of this team right now.

I have 3-14 as the worst record this year too, by the way. Should be fun to hear what Belichick has to say as a media member when this team comes up. Hard to be too critical, Bill. You left these cupboards bare.

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)

365Scores Preview: It’s one of my favorite stats that the NFC East has not had a repeat winner since the 2001-04 Eagles. Meanwhile, every other division has had at least two repeat winners in that time. I go through it in here why this has happened to the East, and it’s usually because of the shared quarterback talent in the division (no alpha for a long time), and injuries to those quarterbacks.

But you can also argue the 2023 Eagles had the greatest collapse in NFL history after a 10-1 start. No division title and no playoff win after a 10-1 start. But I go into why that was always fishy, why I was right to compare them to the 2022 Vikings when they were 10-1, and why I still think the streak continues as they steal the division back from Dallas this year with better coordinators.

The key is the home game late in the year against Dallas. These teams have been splitting home games with each other, and the Eagles get the big one late.

Also, I am curious to see that Tush Push without Jason Kelce at center, but something tells me it will still work well.

2. Dallas Cowboys (10-7)

365Scores Preview: The Cowboys more or less did what you expected them to do last year. Smashed the bad teams, split with the Eagles at home, and got smashed by teams like the 49ers and Bills. Lost a close one on the road to their paper tiger doppelganger from the AFC in Miami.

But everything was going fine until the playoffs when they fell behind 27-0 in the blink of an eye against Green Bay. That one floored me, and it’s a bad sign for this team that they’ve turned three straight 12-win seasons into a playoff win over a lousy Tampa Bay team in 2022 and that’s it.

So, I am soured on Dallas, but the preview has some interesting facts about why 2024 might be the last chance for Dak Prescott if he’s ever going to win a Super Bowl for Dallas. Either he or the coach should probably go if they fail this year.

3. Washington Commanders (4-13)

365Scores Preview: This would probably be more shocking than the RGIII year in 2012 if this team was good. But I just don’t see it this year with Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury as the retread coaches getting another shot. Jayden Daniels had incredible numbers in 2023, but not so much in his first four college seasons. He’ll also have to prove he can stay healthy after taking some comically bad hits in college.

4. New York Giants (3-14)

365Scores Preview: What is the most shocking outcome possible for the 2024 NFL season? I might have to go with a legitimate breakout season from Daniel Jones. It’s Year 6 and I’m out. He had one of the worst Year 5 seasons ever in 2023, and he’s a quarterback coming off a torn ACL where his mobility is his best feature. It’s not a good fit, it’s not going to get fixed with Brian Daboll, and they should just admit a mistake (like Russ in Denver) and cut bait after this year.

Good draft pick of Nabers though. The next quarterback should love him.

AFC SOUTH

1. Houston Texans (13-4)

365Scores Preview: Yeah, I went big at 13-4. I think the Texans have the right stuff this year and their preview was one I was very much looking forward to writing. C.J. Stroud is my MVP pick as I loved his ability to lead the league in INT% and passing yards per game (first time that’s happened since 1970 John Brodie) as a rookie. Now you give him Stefon Diggs and possibly the best group of weapons in the league if Tank Dell stays healthy and takes a second-year leap. Stroud could spread the ball around and lead a No. 1 offense here if everything goes well.

But I also loved the move of Danielle Hunter for the pass rush. Don’t just settle with Will Anderson Jr. doing well as a rookie. He’ll get better too, giving them bookends to rush the passer with.

As I detailed in the preview, so many NFL teams that go to Super Bowls do it early in their runs. It only took two seasons for Don Shula and Dan Marino, Bill Cowher and Ben Roethlisberger, Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson, and Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons ever. I think he has one of the best sophomore seasons ever, and he can wrap up MVP and possibly a No. 1 seed in December in those island games against the Chiefs and Ravens, the most important part of the NFL schedule this year with those teams playing 3 games in 10 days.

But just read the linked preview to fully understand why I’m high on Houston in 2024. They were only scratching the surface in 2023.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)

365Scores Preview: I struggle with this team since I think they rode improbable comebacks and the Titans’ collapse to a division title in 2022. Then last year, they were 9-8 again and probably a better team had Trevor Lawrence not gotten injured against the Bengals. But I’m not a big Lawrence fan, and this preview goes into some interesting numbers that show how absurdly important completion percentage has been to him, and why throwing short might be the key to his success. It could also explain why Calvin Ridley just wasn’t his guy but he loves Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. That also could contradict giving him Gabe Davis and the rookie from LSU.

In the end, I landed on 9-8 again as I clearly have bigger plans for Houston in this division. But I do acknowledge the AFC South is a division where anyone could win this year. Nothing would surprise me on that front.

3. Indianapolis Colts (8-9)

365Scores Preview: Speaking of why anyone could win the AFC South, imagine if the Colts go from 9-8 and a red zone touchdown shy of the division title to hopefully getting a full, healthy season from Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor. They also drafted possibly the best edge rusher in the draft and a favorite for DROY (Laiatu Latu).

However, I’m not sold that Richardson can stay healthy as he was knocked out of three games with injuries on runs last year, and he’s going to probably run 100+ times this season if he can. At least they have Joe Flacco as the backup. But I also think Richardson is going to be an inconsistent player with a great highlight reel who misses some easy plays.

It should be a grind for the Colts, who haven’t won the division since 2014.

4. Tennessee Titans (7-10)

365Scores Preview: I like the table in this preview that looks at what happens when you get a second-year quarterback (Will Levis) and pair him with a rookie coach (Brian Callahan). Some good turnaround stories have happened this way, especially if the quarterback needs a boost after a struggle last year. The Titans fit that mold, and they really upgraded the offense around Levis. Not saying I love the additions of Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley, but it’s more than just an aging DeAndre Hopkins and Derrick Henry like they had last year. They also got Tyler Boyd, so you’re talking about one of the better WR trios in the league, a key component for a Callahan offense coming from Cincy.

But I’m also curious to see if Levis dramatically brings down his ADOT, which led the league last year while Callahan’s quarterbacks had the two lowest figures for the Bengals. Not going crazy to pick a worst-to-first team here, but it’s one of the few chances of that happening this year if Levis were to have that 2017 Jared Goff type of Year 2 leap.

NFC SOUTH

1. Atlanta Falcons (10-7)

365Scores Preview: I hated the Michael Penix Jr. draft pick and still don’t understand it when you’re paying Kirk Cousins this much money in a winnable division. They should have gave him Rome Odunze, a new left tackle for the long term, or Dallas Turner/Latu instead. Having said that, I think the Falcons have a great schedule with an easy finish that will allow them to clinch the division title after a slow start to the year with Cousins coming off a torn Achilles.

Expecting big things from Bijan Robinson in this offense since I’m still not sold that much on Kyle Pitts or the receivers after Drake London. I also think hiring Raheem Morris over Bill Belichick was a mistake, but we’ll see what he does given another chance.

2. New Orleans Saints (9-8)

365Scores Preview: I spent this preview thinking we are overlooking the Saints, who became an afterthought after missing the playoffs last year despite giving Derek Carr the best defense of his career and the easy schedule living up to the hype. But the Saints finished strong in a way that usually bodes well for playoff success the next season. They’re basically the same team as last year, but a year older, and inching further to real cap hell.

But that still might be good enough for 9-8 again, and hopefully this time that’s enough for the playoffs. As I mentioned in the preview, it was really a blown 17-0 lead and missed clutch field goal in Week 3 in Green Bay that ruined the team’s season. Otherwise, we would be viewing the Packers and Saints very differently going into this year.

Also, the Saints were the only team in the NFL to not have a 4th-quarter comeback win in 2023 (playoffs included). Remember when that was Carr’s specialty? Let’s see some positive regression in that department this year to get to 9-8 again. More close wins should make up for any shortcomings they have as an aging roster.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-10)

365Scores Preview: Remember when the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl and basically brought the whole team back? That almost worked out for them in 2021. But I think doing it again in 2024 is a mistake when that roster has declined to the point where barely getting to 9-8 is all they can do to win the division title, and the division should be stronger this year.

Even if they get to 8-9 or 9-8 again, I think Tampa’s reign at the top of the NFC South ends this year.

4. Carolina Panthers (6-11)

365Scores Preview: This is the Tennessee team in the NFC this year. A second-year quarterback (Bryce Young) who really struggled with a rookie coach (Dave Canales) and better weapons beyond just Adam Thielen. Yet, while I loved the over 5.5 wins for Carolina, I initially gave them 5-12 as their final record. It was the last change I made to the picks to get them to 6-11.

I want to believe in the turnaround and that Young will be okay, but I need to see more first.

AFC NORTH

1. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

365Scores Preview: Just once it’d be sweet to see a full, healthy season from both Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow so we can put this nonsense to rest. I’ve said the Bengals won the division in 2021 and 2022 because Jackson was injured in both Decembers and never played again those years. At the time of his injury, the Ravens were in first place both years. That’s just a fact.

That’s also my motivation for why I picked the Ravens to be a 13-4 No. 1 seed last year, which is exactly what they did. Now for this year, I’m not as optimistic about them going to the Super Bowl, but I can at least understand why it’d happen if it does. I think Derrick Henry is a perfect fit for what they do, but I’m very skeptical you can ride a back who will be 31 in January to a Super Bowl in this era. He’s also led the league in carries in 4-of-5 seasons, so the injury risk is higher.

Having said that, I think the Ravens, Chiefs, Texans, and Packers are the four most important previews I wrote this year. Definitely read this one if you want to see why the Ravens have struggled in the playoffs with Lamar. They try to be something they’re not in the playoffs. They can’t fall into that trap again if they’re ever going to get to a Super Bowl with Jackson and Harbaugh.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)

365Scores Preview: I had the Bengals at 11-6 last year and of course they started poorly and were never a real threat in the AFC. Joe Burrow needs to prove he can stay healthy, and he needs to increase his level of play. Show me more clutch moments in those tight games. Show me fewer sacks. He also has to get it done without Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd, though I agree it was time to cut bait with both. We’ll see how the in-house promotion goes with offensive coordinator, but I always say good quarterbacks get their OCs hired, bad quarterbacks get their coaches fired. Most do just fine with a coordinator change.

Still have one of the best wide receiver duos in the game as I expect Ja’Marr Chase will get a payday soon. But I am hesitantly picking 11 wins for a team that was 9-8 last year and was swept by Pittsburgh as that defense was kryptonite for Jake Browning, who led the league in completion percentage in Burrow’s absence.

But the return of Burrow and reversing that Pittsburgh sweep could essentially be the difference in these teams’ records this year.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-9)

365Scores Preview: I knew all offseason I’d likely have the Steelers straddling the line between 8-9 and 9-8 with history on the line as they try to tie the record with 21 non-losing seasons. But when it came time to go through the schedule, I have the Chiefs in Week 17 putting the nail in the coffin for the streak as they hand the Steelers their 9th loss, guaranteeing a losing record.

In the end, I just can’t buy the Diontae Johnson trade being a good idea, I don’t care for the hiring of Arthur Smith, and Russell Wilson just might be washed. He could end up getting benched in October a la Donovan McNabb as the Steelers see what they have with Justin Fields instead.

But I know Fields is in the running for the worst clutch quarterback of the 21st century, so those close wins the Steelers rely on to keep their streak going? Kiss them goodbye. At least Wilson can deliver some of those and keep the .500 record in striking distance.

But it’s just too hard to think this team rises above mediocrity this year. At the very least, we won’t be fooled again by the preseason like last year. The Steelers’ starting offense looked awful in August this time. Something tells me they aren’t holding back. Expect a ton of sacks no matter which quarterback plays.

4. Cleveland Browns (7-10)

365Scores Preview: I’ve said Deshaun Watson is the worst trade in NFL history, but he still has a chance to refute that. However, I’m not convinced he will with a team that lost some linemen, a good OL coach, and Nick Chubb is still on PUP. It didn’t take Baker Mayfield, Jacoby Brissett, or Joe Flacco this long to figure out Kevin Stefanski’s offense. What’s the holdup with Watson? I think he’s just washed, and I think his teammates are losing confidence in him.

There’s enough talent here to still flirt with the wild card, but I don’t think the Browns are anywhere near as successful as last season.

NFC NORTH

1. Green Bay Packers (13-4)

365Scores Preview: The youngest team to make the playoffs since 1977 will build on their hot finish and look like a top-tier team in 2024. We’ve already seen Matt LaFleur become the only coach to win 13 games in three straight seasons in 2019-21. He knows what he’s doing, and Jordan Love played at an MVP level down the stretch. I’m not fading a team that already beat Detroit in Detroit, beat the Chiefs, beat the Cowboys in the playoffs, and should have won in San Francisco if not for the rare 7-point comeback in the fourth quarter by the 49ers (rare for Kyle Shanahan teams).

I expect big things from the Packers this year, so definitely check that preview out for the full reasons why.

2. Detroit Lions (10-7)

365Scores Preview: I expressed my doubt in this preview of Detroit finishing the job it started last year. I just think 2023 set up perfectly for them with home games against the Rams and Buccaneers in the playoffs, then a San Francisco team that was a little vulnerable down the stretch with Deebo’s health and the defense not looking as elite. But to blow that 17-point lead the way they did, that was brutal, and a lot of it goes on Josh Reynolds’ drops and their inability to trust their kicker to make a field goal.

Reynolds is gone, but the kicking situation is still iffy, and I don’t think they have a great WR2 ready. Not that they really need one with all the other weapons they have. But I don’t see the offense getting even better this year, and that will be up to the defense for the team to move up a tier.

However, the Packers are my pick and I think that knocks Detroit down a peg to the wild card. I’m just not ready to crown the Lions as back-to-back division champs. They need to tighten things up defensively.

3. Chicago Bears (8-9)

365Scores Preview: Did a lot of research on Chicago again this offseason, concluding that Caleb Williams is walking into the best situation ever for a No. 1 quarterback pick. That’s why he’s my favorite pick for any award as he has the best odds to win OROY, but will it lead to a winning record as the Bears are favored for at over 8.5 wins?

I couldn’t quite get there as I still see the Packers and Lions as better teams in the division. I’m also not sold on Matt Eberflus as a coach, and while the offense should be better, I don’t expect the defense to be elite.

Remember, Andrew Luck is the only No. 1 pick at quarterback to win more than 7 games his rookie year. I think Caleb will be the second, but it’s an 8-9 record. Still, I’m excited about seeing him after how good he looked in the preseason.

But we’ve been fooled before with August football. Just look at Kenny Pickett and Sam Howell in 2023. But I really do believe the Bears finally landed on their franchise quarterback, and my preview goes to great lengths to explain the few chances they’ve had to replace Sid Luckman since the 1950s.

4. Minnesota Vikings (4-13)

365Scores Preview: I was already sour on the 2024 Vikings before J.J. McCarthy required season-ending surgery after one preseason game. I am not looking forward to Sam Darnold for a year, and thankfully the early schedule is so brutal that I doubt we’ll be talking up any Minnesota fool’s gold with a 3-1 start like the Panthers experienced a few years ago with Darnold before they finished 5-11.

But sure, it should be better for Justin Jefferson’s stats this year. Just keep feeding him the ball while you’re playing from behind most of the year. But it is a good opportunity for Kevin O’Connell to flex his coaching muscles if the offense can look semi-decent with Darnold in what should be his last chance to show he can start in the NFL.

PLAYOFFS

I was happy with most of my initial run through the schedule and getting things to add up to 272 wins. But after seeing I didn’t have many new playoff teams in the AFC, I made a change to drop Miami a game and move the Chargers up. I also happened to redo some of my 2023 picks with the Jets and Bengals winning 11 games as wild card teams.

AFC

  • 1. Houston (13-4)
  • 2. Kansas City (13-4)
  • 3. Baltimore (12-5)
  • 4. Buffalo (11-6)
  • 5. NY Jets (11-6)
  • 6. Cincinnati (11-6)
  • 7. LA Chargers (10-7)

For those wondering, yes, I have Houston getting the No. 1 seed by virtue of beating the Chiefs at Arrowhead in Week 16, setting up some interesting dynamics for the playoffs.

I think this would be a fantastic bracket in January. You get a wild card round with all division rematches with Chiefs-Chargers, Ravens-Bengals, and Bills-Jets. How incredible would that be? I think that sets up a rematch of Ravens-Chiefs in the divisional round, but this time in Kansas City where the Chiefs do it again to Lamar.

While I did give the Bills the AFC East title, I’m going to pick Rodgers and his defense to win in the playoffs in the wild card round, setting up a Jets-Texans game. I have the Jets being some kryptonite to C.J. Stroud, the team he had the concussion against last year, and they use Sauce Gardner and that defense to complete a season sweep of the young Texans. Defense still wins in January. Another MVP crashes and burns.

But this sets up a Jets-Chiefs AFC Championship Game in Arrowhead. We finally get to see Rodgers vs. Mahomes, but like usual in this round, Rodgers doesn’t get it done on the road. Mahomes helps the Chiefs to a record fifth Super Bowl in the last six seasons and the three-peat is one game away.

NFC

  • 1. Green Bay (13-4)
  • 2. San Francisco (12-5)
  • 3. Philadelphia (11-6)
  • 4. Atlanta (10-7)
  • 5. Dallas (10-7)
  • 6. Detroit (10-7)
  • 7. New Orleans (9-8)

The Saints sneak in at 9-8 this year, but don’t worry, they won’t be going on an epic run to host the Super Bowl. They’re going to lose in San Francisco, which loses out on the No. 1 seed thanks to a loss in Green Bay in Week 12.

Lions-Eagles could be a fun shootout, and I think I’ll back the Eagles at home. The Cowboys actually can win a road playoff game against the Falcons. I have some faith in that one.

That means the Eagles in San Francisco (BIG DOM REVENGE GAME) and Cowboys in Green Bay. Jordan Love shows he has that Rodgers way of owning the Cowboys in the postseason again. The Eagles come up short in San Francisco, setting up a rematch from last year but this time at Green Bay. LaFleur has struggled with Shanahan’s team so much, but I think the Packers get their revenge this time and complete a sweep of the 49ers to get to a Super Bowl.

SUPER BOWL LIX

It’s a rematch of Super Bowl I, a game where the 1966 Packers beat the Chiefs and won their second championship in a row. They followed it up with a third in Super Bowl II, completing the only official three-peat in NFL playoff history. Now it’s up to the 2024 Packers to defend that and stop the Chiefs in New Orleans.

You go back to 2021, Jordan Love actually made his first NFL start against the Chiefs when Rodgers was out with COVID. It didn’t go well, but the 13-7 final is the lowest-scoring game of Mahomes’ career with the Chiefs. Then when they met last year in Green Bay, Love outplayed Mahomes and was the only quarterback to score more than 24 points against the Chiefs. We know LaFleur got a 31-24 win over Reid’s Chiefs in 2019 too in a game Mahomes missed for injury.

What if the Packers just have the right stuff for beating the Chiefs? They have several talented receivers who can step up and attack that Kansas City secondary that is now just Trent McDuffie and some guys. You don’t know where the ball is going in any given matchup, and that’s the 2001-06 Patriots-like beauty of the Green Bay offense right now. Defenses don’t know who to double and Love can just pick his spots and expect the guys to produce.

But I’m not going to spend any more time talking about such a hypothetical. Let’s see if it happens, because it certainly makes the most sense of any matchup this year to me. The champs going for a three-peat against a team that beat them last year and nearly knocked out the 49ers last year too. It’s their time to move up a class, and beating the Chiefs in such a historic game would be one hell of an achievement for these Packers.

Love accomplishes what Rodgers couldn’t two weeks ago and beats Mahomes in this one with a late field goal as the kick finally goes in this time for Green Bay. Hell, maybe Harrison Butker will get so pissed on Kamala’s Inauguration Day that he makes a disparaging rant about women that even turns the Swifties against him so bad that he ends up choking on a game-tying field goal to the loudest boos you’ve ever heard just when you thought we were going to overtime for the second year in a row in the Super Bowl.

At least I’d have my angle for why the three-peat didn’t happen, and it wouldn’t be the real GOAT’s fault.

Packers 27, Chiefs 24 (Super Bowl MVP: Jordan Love)

TL;DR Version: The Chiefs want the three-peat about as much as I want the three-peat. But I know that statistically the odds should be against it, and I just have this vision for Green Bay being the latest flash-in-the-pan NFC team. The story would be incredible of them preventing the three-peat to save the legacy of the 1965-67 team the way Don Shula’s Dolphins protected the perfect season from the 85 Bears.

If the three-peat doesn’t happen, I already know who I hope I can lay it at the feet of…

Also, my predictions might be totally fvcked if the Texans and Packers both flop this year. But at least one should deliver for me. Emphasis on should.

Best 15 New TV Shows of 2023

It feels a little weird to talk about the best new TV shows of 2023 when it’s July 2024. But once again, I’m a little behind in getting this out. However, I am still three weeks ahead of when I put out last year’s list.

In fact, I would like to go back and revise my top 15 lists for the last decade where I’ve been doing this. But for now, let’s just focus on 2023, which started incredibly strong. Most of my top series were released before my birthday in April.

There was that one weekend in early April where Netflix dropped Beef, and then that Sunday night’s episode of Succession was the one where you know who died off screen. That was an incredible weekend of television, one that could go unrivaled for some time.

As you’ll see in my list, limited series are really starting to take over these days. So many shows have recently ended or will end with their next season. It’s getting harder to sustain something great for three or more seasons, and sometimes they bring a limited series back when maybe it should have stayed a limited series.

But I can complain about Shogun next summer. Let’s get on with the 2023 list.

Note: Limited series and anime are included; all documentary series are excluded. I try my best to limit spoilers (but no promises).

15. Scavengers Reign (Max)

If you want an animated sci-fi series with a colorful, unique world and a progressively engrossing plot, Scavengers Reign will hit the spot. Don’t go in expecting anything like Aliens or Star Wars. This is more like if Primal was turned into a futuristic sci-fi series about exploring a new planet. Psychedelic drug users may also find a lot of value in this one, which was already cancelled but bought by Netflix with an uncertain future.

I don’t think the voice acting and overall plot are strong enough to move it into all-time status, but it’s worth the time.

14. The Curse (Showtime)

My best advice is if you want to watch The Curse, please make sure you’ve watched some of Nathan Fielder’s other work before like Nathan for You and The Rehearsal. If you already have and you don’t like his schtick, then you probably will hate this show since he acts very similar in it. However, he also shows more acting range than ever before, and Emma Stone is in her prime right now and does a great job as his wife.

Benny Safdie (Uncut Gems) is the third lead, and you can literally play a game each episode trying to decide which of the main characters is the worst person on the show. Your answer will likely change too as we learn more about this couple and their phony personas for their HGTV shows about flipping houses.

The finale is insane, and unless you’ve been spoiled on it already, you’ll never guess how it ends. But this is definitely one for Nathan Fielder fans.

13. The Fall of the House of Usher (Netflix)

If you’ve watched Mike Flanagan’s other horror series for Netflix like The Haunting of Hill House and Midnight Mass, then you should have a good idea of what to expect here. I’d rank those two series ahead of this one, but this is still very good and arguably the darkest series yet.

All six children of a pharmaceutical company CEO die in a 2-week span. That’s not a spoiler. You find out through the course of the season how and why they died.

It does a great job of handling the flashbacks and different timelines. The aftermath of the party scene in episode 2 is traumatizing.

12. Pluto (Netflix)

It was a banner year for Netflix anime, and Pluto was one of the best as a sci-fi murder mystery. If you like anime like Psycho Pass and Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex, you’ll dig this for sure. A Blade Runner fan should also like it.

I won’t give away spoilers, but it follows a detective investigating a string of murders of robots and humans. Even the dubbed version is quality work.

11. Gen V (Amazon Prime)

I’ll avoid the Season 4 discourse of The Boys, especially after it dropped the worst episode in franchise history on the 4th of July. But Gen V is a worthy spin-off with a lot of new, younger characters and a fresh take on the same universe of The Boys.

Yes, you can expect the same over-the-top violence and a ridiculous CGI penis scene. But if you like The Boys, chances are you’ve watched this already.

10. Silo (Apple TV+)

Who would have guessed that Apple TV+ would become the top streaming service for sci-fi series? Silo was another strong entry led by Rebecca Ferguson’s character navigating a dystopian, underground community where people aren’t supposed to go to the surface unless they want to die a few steps after being exposed to the atmosphere.

Of course, there’s a big mystery and conspiracy over the truth of this silo and what’s outside. It’s a great show and the setting gives it a video game feel a la BioShock or Fallout Shelter.

Good to see Season 2 is on the way, because too often shows like this get cancelled.

9. Shrinking (Apple TV+)

My kind of dramedy with Jason Segel as a grieving therapist (his wife died in a car accident) who starts to take an active role in his patient’s lives. Perfectly cast. It bounces between his work and his life at home trying to raise his daughter alone.

It’s a quick binge with episodes of the perfect length. It’s also great to see Harrison Ford get to do some real acting in his old age instead of being forced to play Han Solo or Indiana Jones again.

8. A Small Light (National Geographic)

    You don’t expect such quality from National Geographic, but the show was also available quickly on Hulu and Disney+ where I watched it. This is about the family who helped hide Anne Frank’s family during World War II.

    Yes, you already know the ending is going to be sad, but it’s a well-paced WWII story. Could they have just made a 2-hour movie about Miep Gies? Sure, but I think the limited series approach did a good job of showing just how long they had to endure the horror of the war, and how tragic it was that they lost so much of the Frank family in the later stages of it.

    7. One Piece (Netflix)

    This really could have been a disaster given the numerous misses already on Netflix’s resume for making live-action adaptations of popular anime series. There’s also the fact that I have never watched the One Piece anime because I’m always afraid of my OCD completionist qualities taking over and having to finish over 1,000 episodes of a show I may not actually enjoy that much.

    So, there was a lot working against this for me. But I went into the first episode with an open mind and found it surprisingly enjoyable. Good cast, the action scenes didn’t look cheap, and the story kept my attention the whole way. By the end, I was looking forward to Season 2.

    Still not planning to start the anime anytime soon.

    6. Poker Face (Peacock)

    See, Peacock isn’t entirely useless. A “case of the week” show format usually isn’t my vibe, but they pull it off so well with great special guests and Natasha Lyonne doing her Columbo thing every episode.

    It’s a throwback but also feels modern and high budget, and the pilot gets you interested immediately with Lyonne on the run from some casino gangsters that accounts for the serialized part of the plot.

    Bring on Season 2.

    5. Jury Duty (Freevee)

    Huge points for originality and creativity, and it’s coming from Freevee? Even more reason to celebrate this unlikely success of a scripted show about a jury trial where everyone is an actor except for one guy named Ronald.

    Assuming he truly was being himself and was not clued in on what this was, it’s an excellent comedy experiment with James Marsden stealing the show as he plays a fictionalized version of himself.

    But Ronald makes the show work, because if this guy was an asshole, the show could have been a disaster. Any future attempts at a story like this could go really poorly if they pick the wrong person, which is why I still have some suspicions that he really had no idea this was all scripted and planned.

    It’s far from the funniest show you’ll ever see, but it is very entertaining, and you have to give some bonus points for creativity these days. This shit could have been the Night Court reboot instead.

    4. Daisy Jones & the Six (Amazon Prime)

    I picked a good weekend to binge this last year as I was going through some shit at the time. They basically take a 1970s rock band in the vein of Fleetwood Mac and make a documentary 20 years later about their success and downfall, complete with a love affair angle between the two lead singers of the band (Riley Keough and Sam Claflin).

    It’s not going to work for everyone, but it clicked for me. Definitely helps to be a fan of that era of rock bands and to enjoy music documentaries. I also find myself still listening to one of the songs the actors recorded for the show called “Look at Us Now (Honeycomb)” where you can instantly hear the Fleetwood Mac influence.

    3. Blue Eye Samurai (Netflix)

    I would call Blue Eye Samurai the best Netflix anime offering, except it’s not really a Japanese anime series. This is a beautiful mixture of 2D and 3D animation with scenes that look as cinematic as something you’d see in Kill Bill.

    In this tale of revenge, you get excellent storytelling, top-notch voice acting, and memorable fight sequences. This should go down as one of the best animated series ever made.

    2. The Last of Us (HBO)

    I’m ashamed to admit I bought The Last of Us many years ago for PlayStation 3 and have yet to play it. So, I went into this one cold about the plot, but the pilot instantly grabbed me. I knew the girl he was with in the game wasn’t his daughter, but why didn’t I connect the dots that something horrible was going to happen to his real daughter in the first episode? What a start.

    While I could not give you the comparison to the game, I’m not sure it matters. What they did stood on its own as damn good television. I was pumped each week to watch this, and I even enjoyed the “one-off” episodes with the gay couple and the flashback to the mall with Ellie’s friend. Not to mention the other moments that shocked me, someone oblivious to the game, like what happened to Tess and the young kid and father they met up with later.

    Hopefully the day will come when I get around to playing the game, but for a video game adaptation to lead to this good of a season of TV, I’m optimistic about what we could see down the road.

    Something tells me not many of these adaptations will be as well done as this season was.

    1. Beef (Netflix)

    If you saw me tweeting about Beef in April 2023, you probably knew I’d put this as the No. 1 new show of the year. When it came out, all I knew about it was that it was a road rage story with Steven Yeun. I didn’t really know anything about Ali Wong at the time, but she was great as Amy in this. Glad they cleaned up at the award shows for this.

    I was basically dialed in from the first episode. A dark dramedy? That’s my genre. Loved the way they escalated the story to reach that absurd climax in the ninth episode, one of the craziest I’ve seen in any show, before calming things down for a memorable finale. The supporting cast was great, especially Danny’s brother and Amy’s husband.

    The music also put it over the top for me. Right in the first episode, they find a way to use Hoobastank (“The Reason”) as a needle drop going to the end credits. Later on you get Incubus (“Drive”), The Offspring (“Self Esteem”), System of a Down (“Lonely Day”), Bush (“Machinehead”), Keane (“Somewhere Only We Know”), and my favorite woman singer of all time in Björk (“All Is Full of Love”) to end the penultimate episode.

    Then the final scene couldn’t have gone any better when I heard “Mayonaise” start, my favorite Smashing Pumpkins song. The way the light in the room flashes to sync up with the drums, then getting to the line with “June” just before the credits show the name of the actress who played her daughter June… It’s perfect. I get goosebumps every time like when I watch the final scene of The Dark Knight.

    The script, the acting, the music, it all came together for me quickly. I felt I was watching something special in the third episode when Danny’s character goes to a church and starts crying during an excellent performance of “O Come to the Altar” by a church band. I’m not a religious person at all, but I find myself watching this video on YouTube frequently to this day as I really enjoy the way the song sounds here. Elevation Worship is the group best known for this song, but the extra guitars and dueling male-female vocals they use in Beef gives it a 1990s Midwest emo sound that just works best for me.

    Hands down, one of my favorite limited series of all time. Of course, they have announced a Season 2, so it looks like they’ll be turning this into an anthology series. That could be good, but I hope they leave the story of Danny and Amy alone.

    This was already perfection.

    Honorable Mentions

    • Carol & the End of the World: Carol’s voice can be annoying, but this animated dramedy about the apocalypse is worth the watch.
    • The Diplomat: Punchy dialogue between Keri Russell and Rufus Sewell lightens up meaty political plots.
    • Fellow Travelers: Well done gay love story that spans decades with Matt Bomer.
    • Lessons in Chemistry: Bill Pullman’s son can act, and I was certainly blown away by his character in this – just not as blown away as he was by…Just watch it.
    • A Murder at the End of the World – Some feel the ending is predictable, but I enjoyed the show and setting.
    • My Adventures with Superman: I actually didn’t watch the animated Superman series in the 90s, but I’ve been enjoying this one and S1 is better than S2 (so far).
    • The Night Agent: Very solid binge for fans of 24.
    • Rabbit Hole: In my best Jack Bauer voice, DAMNIT! They cancelled a good one here. Kiefer should be pissed at busted ass Paramount for not continuing this twisty thriller.
    • Special Ops: Lioness – Taylor Sheridan is singlehandedly keeping Paramount alive. Another good offering here with a CIA operative show.
    • Tiny Beautiful Things: Kathryn Hahn carries this dramedy about motherhood.

     So, that’s where I’m at with 2023. Here is a little table look at my picks for 2018-2023, and I’ll have to eventually get something updated and expanded for past years.

    As for 2024, I feel like I’ve been keeping up well with the new shows halfway through the year. Really enjoyed some of them already like Dark Matter and Baby Reindeer.

    I’m sure it’ll still take me into next July to get that 2024 list out. But as long as I get it out…

    NFL Stat Oddity: Super Bowl LVIII

    Super Bowl LVIII was in fact a race to 24 points, but I’m not sure anyone imagined we would be 3 seconds away from double overtime, making this the longest Super Bowl ever played by game time (74:57).

    But the Kansas City Chiefs are all about making history. It has been that way since Patrick Mahomes took over as the full-time starter in 2018, and it is only fitting that this team is now officially an NFL dynasty with 3 Super Bowl wins in the last 5 seasons. The longest drought in NFL history without a repeat champion is over at 18 seasons (2005-22).

    The Chiefs have done it a little differently each time, though the ending that links all three has been Mahomes rallying the team back from a 10-point deficit in the Super Bowl and being named MVP. He joins Bart Starr (1966-67) and Terry Bradshaw (1978-79) as the only players to win Super Bowl MVP in back-to-back years.

    But 2023 was just a season-long epic performance from Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, fairly reliable special teams, and Mahomes’ receivers did not screw up the games in the postseason like they did in the regular season. Ending things with a touchdown pass to Mecole Hardman, one of those scrutinized targets, was just the cherry on top to another year where the Chiefs beat the odds to finish with a championship.

    This was a wild Super Bowl. If you ask me:

    • First 42 minutes – a bottom 5 Super Bowl all time with a bunch of fumbles (indoors to boot) and drive-killing plays
    • Last 33 minutes – a top 5 Super Bowl all time with 7 straight scoring drives to end it (minus a kneeldown)

    I’d like to try to get into bed by 8 AM, so let’s jump into the recap and put this season to rest after another historic Super Bowl.

    This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

    The First Quarter: Scoreless

    The 49ers came out strong doing exactly the things I thought they needed to do to win this game. That meant quality runs by Christian McCaffrey and easy completions to help Brock Purdy’s nerves. They chewed up 46 yards in 4 snaps before an unexpected blunder when the Chiefs forced CMC to fumble at the Kansas City 27, and they were able to jump on top of it for a shocking turnover.

    The Chiefs had that incredible streak going of 8 straight playoff games with an opening-drive score (6 TD, 2 FG), but that came to a screeching halt with a 3-and-out. It was almost doomed from the first snap when Isiah Pacheco was stuffed for a 3-yard loss. Little did we know the 1-yard screen to Travis Kelce would be his only catch of the first half.

    While Kelce sorted himself out later, George Kittle never got going in a hugely disappointing game for the other star tight end in this matchup. Kittle had an 18-yard catch wiped out by a holding penalty on Trent Williams, who was also called for a false start before the play. When that sets up 2nd-and-27, you might as well forget it against this blitzing defense.

    Penalties didn’t become a huge story on the night – thank God – with both teams getting flagged 6 times. The Chiefs actually had more penalty yardage than the 49ers (55-40), so we can put the conspiracy theories to rest on the Swifties getting the calls.

    But right from the second drive you could see pass protection was going to be an issue for Mahomes. Left tackle Donovan Smith was beat cleanly for a sack by Chase Young, and the 49ers almost brought Mahomes down for another sack before he scrambled for 4 yards on 3rd-and-14 on another short drive.

    While the quarter ended scoreless, the 49ers had a drive going and it was actually the secondary receivers who were making the big plays. Chris Conley (18 yards) and Ray Ray McCloud (19 yards) pulled in back-to-back plays that gained more yards than the Chiefs had in the entire first quarter (16 yards).

    Things were looking like 4 years ago when the 49ers played very well on defense and the game swung on a crucial 3rd-and-15 in the fourth quarter. But so far, Purdy was holding up very well and Mahomes wasn’t able to get in a rhythm.

    This was only the 10th scoreless first quarter in Super Bowl history. The previous 5 all involved the Patriots.

    The Second Quarter: Strange

    After Kansas City corner Trent McDuffie made a great play to prevent a long touchdown to Deebo Samuel, the 49ers decided to try a 55-yard field goal. I’ve been hammering on Jake Moody being problematic as a rookie kicker, but he made me eat crow in this game. He calmly hit a 55-yard field goal, which was a Super Bowl record (for the time being) to get the first points on the board.

    I’ll bemoan the Chiefs and their short-yardage flaws later, but they were getting creative with Rashee Rice taking a handoff on a 3rd-and-1 to convert on the ground. He actually looked like he tried to pitch it forward on the play, which should have been a penalty in my book, but nothing was said or flagged. Instead, it goes down as a fumble in the play-by-play that the Chiefs recovered, a theme of the night as they would recover 6 of the 7 fumbles in this game.

    After Rice’s odd play, Mahomes went deep and found Mecole Hardman for the longest play of the game at 52 yards, which was hilarious since he is usually so awful at tracking the ball in the air. But he made that play work and the Chiefs had life. However, Pacheco continued what turned out to be a bad game for him and he fumbled from the 9-yard line, making sure the obligatory fumble was alive and well for Kansas City.

    This kicked off a series of strange events, including Kelce’s meltdown on the sideline where he approached coach Andy Reid and was visibly frustrated with not being on the field for the Pacheco fumble:

    We know he’s an emotional player, but this was a bad look for Kelce. The Chiefs followed that play up with a horse collar tackle of Purdy, but the defense delivered with a third-down pressure that led to a sack of Purdy. The Chiefs lost out on points on the Pacheco fumble, but at least it was still 3-0.

    But the pressure on Mahomes was becoming the story again in a Super Bowl. The next drive was torpedoed from the first snap when Mahomes was pressured, held onto the ball a bit too long, and he tried to throw the ball away in the vicinity of his receiver. The officials didn’t agree and flagged him for intentional grounding, bringing up a 2nd-and-20. That call was iffy. The drive ended with Mahomes scrambling again for a few yards to avoid a sack.

    In the end, Mahomes ended up taking 3 sacks on the night, and it could have easily been double that or more. Keep in mind, the only game in Mahomes’ NFL career where he took 5 sacks was against the Cardinals in 2018. Their head coach was Steve Wilks, who is San Francisco’s defensive coordinator. Things were looking good for his unit so far in this one.

    Unfortunately, the 49ers lost a very good linebacker in Dre Greenlaw prior to this drive when he injured his Achilles in a freak moment of celebration coming onto the field. I’ve never seen anything quite like this:

    What an awful way for your season to end. But the Chiefs were starting to lose their composure with another 15-yard penalty going against L’Jarius Sneed on the ensuing drive. Two plays later, the 49ers dialed up a trick play with wide receiver Jauan Jennings making the long pass back to CMC, who was left alone for a 23-yard touchdown to take a 10-0 lead. Pretty play with a sweet camera angle like this:

    Like clockwork, it’s a Chiefs’ Super Bowl with Patrick Mahomes and they’re down 10 points. It’s happened all four times now, but they obviously have the experience at winning these games.

    After CEH was stuffed for no gain (predictable) and Hardman was flagged for a false start, Mahomes was facing a 3rd-and-9 at his 40 at the 2-minute warning. I saw this as the play of the game so far:

    Mahomes had barely thrown the ball before this drive, but in the big moment, he bought himself time and found Justin Watson for 21 yards. Huge play as the 49ers were not able to manage the clock and really give themselves another shot to score before halftime. The Chiefs marched into the red zone, but their play calls were a bit odd with Rice getting another rush on 2nd-and-7. Mahomes took another sack on 3rd down and the Chiefs had to kick a 28-yard field goal, but at least it was points on the board.

    The Chiefs could have done a lot worse than 10-3 at the half.

    The Third Quarter: Turning Point

    This game was always going to come down to the second half, and we had all those interesting stats to watch play out here:

    • The Chiefs allowed the fewest points after halftime
    • The 49ers scored the most points after halftime
    • The Chiefs scored the 3rd-fewest points after halftime
    • The 49ers allowed the 2nd-fewest points in the 4th quarter

    With numbers like that and the way these teams have recently played, I thought maybe we’d see a role reversal and the 49ers would have to be the team trying to come back this time. But instead, it was business as usual with Mahomes trying to lead the Chiefs back.

    Things got off to a horrendous start when on the first play of the half, Mahomes pitched back to Pacheco and he didn’t handle it and nearly caused a fumble, an unforced error. That made it 2nd-and-22, practically short-circuiting another KC drive on the first snap, something that happened a solid 3 or 4 times in this game. The pitch from Mahomes could have been better, but Pacheco was caught looking upfield early.

    Two plays later, Mahomes made his only real mistake with an interception on a forced throw on 3rd-and-12. In the first half, his only 2 incompletions were the debatable grounding and a pass Justin Watson could have caught but didn’t. This was the first time Mahomes really put the ball in danger and missed.

    But the 49ers did not make him pay for it from the Kansas City 44. They called 3 straight passes, had a false start in the mix, and Purdy ended up scrambling for 4 yards on 3rd-and-15 to end the drive with a punt. This is why many might say the 49ers lost this game in the third quarter when they failed to take advantage of moments like this and passed too much. There is some truth to that, but it’s also true that they needed more points to win, and CMC was getting stuffed pretty well ever since his fumble. Purdy looked like he was handling the moment fine, but the Chiefs did get creative and relentless with their 3rd-down blitz packages.

    But this was turning into a really lousy Super Bowl at this point with the teams unable to move the ball. The Chiefs went 3-and-out again after Pacheco was stuffed on a 3rd-and-1, because they refuse to run the tush push or normal quarterback sneak.

    Purdy tried to create something with a pass to Jennings, but he lost 8 yards and killed the drive for another 3-and-out.

    At this point, Mahomes started to take matters into his own hands, or more accurately – his own legs. He scrambled for 4 yards to convert a 3rd-and-4, then he took off by design for 22 more yards. But the drive stalled and Harrison Butker made sure Moody’s record didn’t hold up for 2 full quarters as he nailed a 57-yard field goal to make it 10-6.

    The kickers at least showed up to play.

    This game really needed a spark as the teams went back to trading 3-and-out drives. I was thinking the Chiefs were now going to win 13-10, fueling the conspiracy theories about it being fixed – 13 is Taylor Swift’s lucky number – and taking away one of my favorite stats where Tom Brady is the only quarterback to win a Super Bowl scoring 13 points. Actually, he did it twice too if you consider the offense only scored 13 in Super Bowl 36 against the Rams.

    But with just under 3 minutes left in the quarter, we had our turning point on a real fluke of a play.

    The 49ers were trying to field the punt, it grazed the heel of a San Francisco player, and McCloud did not make a great effort to pick up the ball. The Chiefs got it instead and were only 16 yards away from the lead. Mahomes immediately found MVS wide open for a go-ahead touchdown and the game was on at 13-10.

    After the Chiefs took their first lead of the game, this really woke everyone up and led to one of the greatest finishes in Super Bowl history.

    The Fourth Quarter: Back and Forth

    We know even a 3-point deficit to start the fourth quarter is usually a deathblow for a Kyle Shanahan team in San Francisco. But things have been different this postseason, and they were driving again behind Purdy this time.

    But what a ballsy call Shanahan made that will largely be forgotten because of the loss. Facing a 4th-and-3 at the Kansas City 15 with 12:46 left, Shanahan had his offense go for it and bypassed the game-tying field goal. I have to say I probably would have kicked it given the low-scoring game and the fact it was 3 yards to go, and you weren’t even in goal-to-go. A lot of risk with that call, but Purdy found Kittle, and he made his only real positive contribution of the game as a receiver with a 4-yard conversion.

    Two snaps later, Purdy found Jennings over the middle and he fought his way into the end zone for a 10-yard touchdown to regain the lead. Could it really be possible that Jennings would win Super Bowl MVP with his touchdown pass and touchdown catch? I really think it would have happened if the 49ers held on to win in regulation, but a lot of time remained (11:22).

    Also not good was Kansas City blocking the extra point, keeping it a 16-13 game. We could argue this ended up benefitting the 49ers later as it made the Chiefs feel content with a field goal to tie the game on the next drive instead of having to go for a touchdown on 4th down. Mahomes was sacked again on 3rd-and-goal at the 3, making the field goal a no-brainer in a 16-13 game for the Chiefs.

    All things considered, I’d still much prefer to be up 17-13 and make the Chiefs go for a touchdown as they have had some issues with the red zone at times this year. Also, you never know when a low snap will derail their drive as that was a problem in this game again, and it was nearly a disaster with just under 10 minutes left. Mahomes had to field the poor snap and throw the ball away, narrowly avoiding another turnover. Creed Humphrey is a 2-time Pro Bowl center, but someone needs to work on his shotgun snaps with him because this is past the point of ridiculous.

    We were tied again with 5:46 left. It wouldn’t be easy, but the 49ers had a chance to work the clock and kick a game-winning field goal with no time left. The Chiefs were down to 2 timeouts after Reid wasted one early in the third quarter to set up a Pacheco run on 3rd-and-1 that failed. In fact, that sequence was nutty as he could have challenged a possible bad spot on a Kelce catch that brought up that 3rd-and-1, but instead he just wasted a timeout for nothing. It really could have haunted the Chiefs here as the 49ers came so close to making this the knockout drive and finally delivering a Super Bowl ring to Shanahan.

    A pass to Kittle for no gain was not an ideal outcome, but the play took so long that the 49ers did not have to run another play until the 2-minute warning, which was huge. This basically put the game on a 3rd-and-5 at the Kansas City 35. If the 49ers could convert, they could run out most of the clock on the Chiefs and kick the winning field goal.

    But Spags sent another blitz and Trent McDuffie was the hero with a pass defensed in Purdy’s face. According to Next Gen Stats, Kansas City’s blitzing led to 9 unblocked pressures, their most in any game this season, and none were bigger than that one by McDuffie.

    Again, credit Moody for silencing the critics with a 53-yard field goal. He played a great game. The 49ers led 19-16 and it was like watching a reverse of the 1988’s season Super Bowl when Joe Montana broke the Cincinnati Bengals’ hearts for the 49ers in a 20-16 comeback win.

    Mahomes was going to have his moment with 1:53 and 2 timeouts left, an eternity for him to drive 75 yards for the winning touchdown. He made getting into field goal range look easy, but things perked up for the touchdown when he found Kelce on a 3rd-and-7 for 22 yards, getting out of bounds at the San Francisco 11 with 10 seconds left.

    Kelce had 1 yard at halftime and still finished the game with 93 yards, his 13th-striaght playoff game with at least 70 yards (next closest is 7 games).According to Next Gen Stats, Kelce reached a top speed of 19.68 miles per hour on that 22-yard gain, his fastest speed in the last 7 seasons. That’s a pretty good argument for “wanting it more” on the big stage with your super-famous girlfriend watching.

    But there wasn’t a Hollywood ending with Kelce catching the winning touchdown in regulation. The Chiefs only really had one shot at it, and while Mahomes went to Kelce, the play wasn’t there and they had to kick the field goal. Butker did his job from 29 yards out and we were getting overtime as Purdy took a knee with 3 seconds left.

    Overtime: Underthinking the New Rules?

    I have been wanting to see an overtime playoff game ever since they changed the rules two seasons ago. The irony is they changed them because of the way the Chiefs beat Buffalo in that 42-36 game in the divisional round. The Chiefs tied it in 13 seconds, they won the coin toss, drove down the field for a walk-off touchdown and Josh Allen, in his finest moment, never saw the ball again.

    We can’t keep letting that happen just as it should have changed after Super Bowl LI ended that way between the Falcons and Patriots, and then again two years later when these Chiefs lost that way to the Patriots in the 2018 AFC Championship Game.

    So, the Chiefs have been on both sides of this, but now they were in uncharted territory with the new rules allowing for both teams to get a possession even if there’s a touchdown. Well, a safety on the opening drive ends it too as would a defensive return touchdown. It’s a little weird to talk about, but the heart of the rule change is definitely in the right spot and we should see more fair outcomes like this was.

    But new rules should mean new strategies, and I’m not sure Shanahan and the 49ers thought this one through in overtime.

    In college, the common strategy is to go on defense first because you’ll know what you need on offense. I have to think that translates a lot here in the NFL’s new overtime system too. I think you go first on defense so you know what you need, and you can get it by playing 4-down football with no time rush at all. That means 4 plays to get 10 yards the whole way, and it doesn’t matter if the clock expires and you’re still trailing. The game will just go to overtime No. 2.

    At least that’s my understanding of it now. During the game, I was not sure about the clock situation, and I know I wasn’t alone in that.

    But in getting back to the strategy, I just don’t think you can realistically give Mahomes the ball last. Even if you get a touchdown and lead by 7 points, they can march down, score the touchdown, and go for 2 and the win and you never see the ball again. That is allowed, so the argument of “you get the first crack at a second possession” doesn’t sit well with me when Mahomes is the opponent.

    Plus, if you go first like San Francisco, you are rather limited by more conventional, 3-down football. You are more likely to kick a field goal if it’s available. That’s just the nature of the game.

    I also don’t buy the “49ers needed to rest the defense” argument. The Chiefs did run 11 more plays in the second half, but the 49ers won time of possession for the game (38-36 minutes). You really couldn’t handle a 2-minute drill that involved 2 timeouts, which was followed by another couple minute break before overtime?

    And there is no guarantee of rest. The 49ers were about to go 3-and-out in overtime if not for a weak holding penalty on McDuffie on a 3rd-and-13 incompletion. They would have been right back on that field and with the Chiefs only needing a field goal if not for that call.

    Like I said, if the Chiefs go first, they are going to be a little more careful and conservative, not always using 4 downs and going for the kill with the touchdown. With the game Pacheco was having, let them run more conventional plays instead of putting the game in Mahomes’ hands. Then even if Mahomes drives for a touchdown, you know they’re kicking the extra point. You get it back, down 7, and you can go win it with 8 and take your time in the process.

    I just think it was absolutely the wrong call by San Francisco to go on offense first against Mahomes. You might get away with that against Burrow or Lamar. Not this quarterback.

    Sure enough, the 49ers did not finish the job. They reached the Kansas City 9 before McCaffrey was stuffed, then another pressure by Chris Jones forced Purdy to throw the ball away, bringing out the field goal team on 4th-and-4. If they were more aggressive or behind, they are going for that 4th-and-4. But given the situation, it is practically impossible to bypass that field goal, so you take it and pray the Chiefs screw up or you get the ball again.

    By the way, the 49ers were 3-of-12 on 3rd down while the Chiefs were 9-for-19. That mattered a lot too.

    With 7:22 left, Mahomes was 75 yards away from one of the biggest legacy drives in NFL history. He could join the exclusive club of 3 Super Bowl winners, and it is the first time in NFL history we’ve ever seen a trailing team with the ball in overtime of the Super Bowl.

    But it almost ended in 4 snaps. Pacheco was stuffed on another 3rd-and-1 run, and that’s when I thought this team’s refusal to run the quarterback sneak was going to cost them a championship. They just will not do it with Mahomes because he dislocated his kneecap in a freak accident play in Denver in 2019. It’s chickenshit logic that reminds me of how my uncle won’t eat kielbasa (unless it’s Easter or Christmas) because he ate a piece of glass from a package of it decades ago. Apparently, they screen out all the glass for holidays.

    On 4th-and-1, season on the line, the Chiefs did put the ball in Mahomes’ hands, but it was on a keeper and he ran for 8 yards to save the game. Then MVS tried to give up the repeat bid on the next snap. Instead of cutting his losses on a play, he kept running backwards and lost 3 yards to set up 2nd-and-13. At least he made up for it with a 7-yard gain, then Mahomes found Rice to settle things down for 13 yards on 3rd-and-6.

    Another 3rd-and-1 came up, and it was another scramble by Mahomes for 19 yards into the red zone that started to make this ending feel predictable, or inevitable with Kansas City. Pacheco ran for 3 more yards, Kelce caught a short one and took it 7 yards as you could see he wanted the touchdown so bad.

    But that made it 1st-and-goal at the 3, and the clock just continued to tick down. Honestly, I wasn’t sure if the game was about to end or go to another overtime at this point, because the idea of a clock expiring with a team still trailing and the game continuing just doesn’t compute for me in the NFL (or NBA).

    I found out after the game the rule is that if the second team’s initial possession has not been completed yet, the game does extend to a second overtime. So that’s that.

    But with the Chiefs playing it casually and the 49ers not calling a timeout, the ending was almost anticlimactic as Mahomes hit Hardman with one of those uncovered passes to the flat they beat the Eagles with a year ago. Enjoy the Korean call of it:

    After berating the wide receivers since Week 1, we watched Mahomes complete 9-of-13 passes for 131 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Super Bowl to the trio of Mecole Hardman, MVS, and Justin Watson. Meanwhile, Purdy was 8-of-20 for 86 yards throwing to his stud trio of Deebo, Kittle, and Aiyuk. That was largely the ballgame as CMC did finish with 80 yards on the ground and 80 through the air. Jennings stepped up. The run defense stepped up against Pacheco. The pass rush was very strong early for the 49ers before Mahomes started finding rushing lanes to exploit.

    There wasn’t a singular moment this time as much as in LIV when Mahomes finding Tyreek Hill on 3rd-and-15 was the difference maker. But the 49ers had a few chances to put this game away and just didn’t do it.

    That Shanahan, always a bridesmaid. I think he should have kicked off in overtime. Instead, we watched Mahomes become the first quarterback in NFL history with multiple walk-off touchdown passes in the postseason. He was the last to do it under the old rules, and he’s the first to do it in the first game with the new rules.

    That is some king shit. So is having three of the top 5 postseasons in QBR for a Super Bowl-winning quarterback since 2006:

    With 333 passing yards, 66 rushing yards, and 2 touchdown passes, Mahomes won his third Super Bowl MVP award. He is the only player to win that award for 3 consecutive rings won. Even Joe Montana needed to reach a fourth after Jerry Rice won the MVP for his third ring. Tom Brady’s third ring saw Deion Branch win the Super Bowl MVP against the 2004 Eagles.

    Montana, Brady, and Mahomes all won their third Super Bowl in a season where they beat the No. 1 scoring defense on the road in the Conference Championship round.

    But the 2023 Chiefs are the first team to ever beat 4 teams in the same postseason that had a +100 scoring differential in the regular season. They did this despite not being one of those teams themselves as they were only +77.

    But after trailing the Bengals 17-7 in Week 17, the offense hit a switch, and it reached a level it could win games at with this defense providing a stellar performance since Week 1. The Chiefs never gave up more than 27 points in any game this season, and they even held all but one opponent under 25 points. You’re not going to put this defense on a historic level with the 2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccaneers, or 2013 Seahawks, but they were legitimately great this year and helped the team overcome one of the toughest postseason paths anyone has taken to a Super Bowl win.

    You can say this is a team that got hot at the right time and carried that all the way to a Super Bowl win. But unlike the 2011 Giants or 2012 Ravens, this team has staying power and can do it again. This is closer to the 1988 49ers shaking off a 10-6 regular season and winning the third Super Bowl in the Joe Montana era, and we know what kind of encore that team had in 1989.

    Conclusion: Yes, It’s a Dynasty and Mahomes Is 1-of-1

    It’s been 19 long years, but we can finally add another dynasty to the annals of NFL history. The Chiefs were the expected pick to replace the Patriots for this years ago, but they gave us pause on multiple occasions since winning that first Super Bowl right around the time the world was starting to face a global pandemic with COVID-19.

    They lost 31-9 to the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV. They blew a 21-3 lead to the Bengals a year later at home in the AFC Championship Game. Then I thought last year would be the crowning achievement of Patrick Mahomes’ career, winning that Super Bowl with an MVP season and top offense after losing Tyreek Hill, then navigating that playoff run on a high-ankle sprain.

    But this season was almost more impressive in some ways. He didn’t play as well individually, but he hung in there through the rough losses, the league-leading wide receiver drops, the excessive penalties and fumbles, and he knew he could trust the defense this time. Then they got it done on the road in the playoffs twice after never having to leave Arrowhead in January before. They took down both No. 1 seeds. They came back from 10 points down in this game. He had nearly 400 yards of offense and was flawless in overtime.

    I always ask what is Mahomes’ weakness? I don’t think in 114 starts he has shown one yet. You have a better chance if you can make him hold the ball and throw low-percentage passes down the field, but we’ve also seen him destroy some teams by extending the play. Even in this game, I think that 3rd-and-9 conversion to Watson at the 2-minute warning in the first half was a game-changing moment to keep the Chiefs alive.

    In all of NFL history, we have not seen a quarterback play this well so consistently while still being able to win at such a high level as often as Mahomes has. Usually, dynasties were stacked on defense, or they could run the ball really well, or they just didn’t have to rely on the quarterback as much. But the Chiefs are an outlier because their quarterback might just be 1 of 1 in this game.

    My interest in the NFL was starting to wane in the 2017 season. Maybe it was the 7-year itch or burnout of covering this stuff 52 weeks a year with no real breaks. Getting into gambling helped some that year, but Mahomes taking over for the Chiefs in 2018 and instantly turning this into a historic team that’s always setting some record has rejuvenated my interest more than anything.

    I want to make sure Mahomes and the Chiefs are being covered properly for their place in history. So, when a big game like this one comes up, I put things into perspective for what a win or loss means for the team. When Mahomes is telling CBS in his pre-game taped interview that dynasty is the goal, and Jim Nantz starts off the 6:00 p.m. broadcast window with dynasty talk, it was the big story of the night. The Chiefs would hands down be a dynasty with a third championship in five seasons.

    But if they had lost this game? Then you start having people looking differently at a team that’s only 2-2 in the Super Bowl, and at a quarterback who had 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in those Super Bowls before the blocked punt changed the dynamics of this game. Suddenly it’s “what if Purdy didn’t get injured in Philly last year; he might be 2-0 in the Super Bowl and have more rings than Mahomes.”

    You nip that talk in the bud by performing and winning the game, which he did again. Does it take some luck too like a muffed punt off a teammate’s heel? Does it take a defense stopping a great offense repeatedly on third down, and a kicker you can rely on for a long field goal? Yeah, it takes some combo of that too, every time.

    It wouldn’t be the ultimate team game without those things. But where I take issue is when people still try to belittle his accomplishments by poorly comparing and equating them to some of the only quarterbacks you can even still compare Mahomes to as a 2-time MVP and 3-time Super Bowl MVP.

    They’ll say Mahomes doesn’t win without his defense this year. Yeah, as if Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, Troy Aikman, and Tom Brady were winning shootouts all the time and didn’t almost exclusively have top 10 defenses when they won their rings. Meanwhile, Mahomes is the only quarterback to win a Super Bowl when his team allowed 25 points per game in the postseason, and he’s done it twice. That number was much lower this year (15.8), but he still can’t hold a candle to Montana, who won 3 rings in postseasons where the 49ers did not allow more points than the 35 the Eagles scored in last year’s Super Bowl.

    They’ll say Mahomes threw a pick in this game. But will they note it was on 3rd-and-12 and the 49ers went 3-and-out from midfield with it? It’s not like he threw a pick-6 to Robert Alford to fall behind 21-0. Will they acknowledge their King of Kings from New England, even in his best Super Bowl moment against the 2003 Panthers, threw a terrible red-zone pick midway through the fourth quarter when he could have taken a 2-score lead? Or that his game-winning drive that day started at the 40-yard line in a tied game after John Kasay sailed the kickoff out of bounds? Not quite driving 75 yards for the touchdown while facing a deficit in overtime, is it?

    Also, will they ever acknowledge Montana had 4 turnovers before The Catch happened in the 1981 NFC Championship Game? Still put up enough points and won the game with a clutch drive, didn’t he? That used to be enough for the old days, but you know they fear Mahomes when they have to treat him differently and start holding him to standards they never put the past greats through.

    But he keeps finding ways to succeed, and he should be the new standard for quarterback play if we are being honest about things. Does that mean he’ll win a lot more rings going forward? That will depend on what the rest of the league does more than anything. But I never believed for a second that Mahomes needs to win 7 or 8 Super Bowls to be the GOAT.

    He’s up to 3 before his 29th birthday. He has some wiggle room as the LOAT did not win his 4th until he was 37 years old. Mahomes can win next year for the first 3-peat in the Super Bowl era. If he can do that, then win a fifth down the road without Reid and Kelce, I don’t see how anyone can reasonably deny him, assuming he’s also not done winning MVP awards and setting the pace for the most yards and touchdown passes in NFL history.

    Mahomes and the Chiefs are a historic team, and that keeps me interested in the future to see where this story grows and goes. This was my 13th season of coverage, and it was a challenging one. I was dealt a personal shock in August, just 3 days after one of my oldest cats died, that I still am not really over. I guess you can say I should have researched this girl I thought I knew for the last 6-7 years as well as I’ve researched Mahomes for his 7 seasons as an NFL quarterback. Be careful who you trust in this world. There aren’t many people who are genuinely looking out for your best interests.

    Then it seems like I’ve been sick every day since December, which is why I’ve had so many short posts on here for prediction pieces on the weekend because I usually didn’t feel that great. Just a lot of sinus stuff with sneezing attacks, then I got the flu in January for a couple of weeks, and I’m still coughing at times from that.

    Hopefully there isn’t another pandemic brewing since the Chiefs took down the 49ers in the Super Bowl again, just like when COVID started four years ago.

    I’m not sure what my offseason plans include, but I expect to be back for another season of NFL coverage. It is a grind, though. I’d love to make use of the next 7 months to also make sure I’m taking care of my mental and physical health better, since that can go ignored during the grind of the season.

    But the offseason always hits better when the Super Bowl outcome was to your liking. At least I got closure from something I love this year.

    NFL Super Bowl LVIII: 49ers vs. Chiefs Predictions

    The buildup for the Super Bowl seems to get longer every year. But we made it to another one this weekend, and I think the potential is there for a great game between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.

    I’ve been writing a ton of articles the last 2 weeks, including some that have nothing to do with this game like the top 5 Super Bowl matchups we didn’t get. I’m burned out a bit and just eagerly awaiting tomorrow’s game that will kick off 24 hours from the minute I’m writing this paragraph.

    Super Bowl Articles:

    I think that’s all of them.

    Super Bowl LVIII Picks

    One more time this season, here are my bets for the big game:

    After 2 weeks and many hours of research and thousands of typed words, the game comes down to this for me:

    Can the 49ers get a dominant game out of Christian McCaffrey to attack the weakness of the KC defense and help protect the nerves of Brock Purdy and the weakness of the offense (pass protection) against a top pass rush and set of corners?

    I really think that is the main story in the game and a matter of attacking the Chiefs like Buffalo did with safe passes that move the chains thanks to a steady run game too. Purdy needs easy completions and to not be facing that blitz all night cause he will make mistakes that lose the game for San Francisco. Ride CMC here.

    On the other side, same as it ever was. Can the Chiefs avoid or at least severely limit the mistakes that plagued them in their losses this year with drops by the WRs, penalties by the WR/OT, and fumbles by everyone? Can they stop calling the gadget shit and just run a normal play to extend a drive? Can they keep Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney’s asses on the sideline for any offensive snaps?

    If the Chiefs protect the ball, they have a great chance to repeat here. But it’s such an interesting matchup of recent trends vs. season trends here. Not just the ball security stuff, but the way the Chiefs allowed the fewest points after halftime, scored the 3rd-fewest too, and the 49ers scored the most points after halftime while allowing the 2nd-fewest 4th quarter points. That points to a San Francisco team that can come back this time like they did in the first two playoff games, and it may be the Chiefs who are leaning on defense to close things out this time.

    Or it could just revert back to their old ways. The front-running 49ers under Kyle Shanahan get out to a double-digit lead like all 3 teams that have faced Mahomes in the Super Bowl have done, but the Chiefs have that ability to string together scores and come back. Definitely going to be fun to see which game script wins out here.

    I keep coming down on my score predictions. My gut was 30-27 on Championship Sunday night. Then I came down to 27-23 where I thought I’d stay at. But now I’m thinking it’s the 24-20 final that Super Bowl LIV should have had before Damien Williams had to cost me a $400 win on my Chiefs by exactly 4 bet with a touchdown he didn’t need to make it 31-20. But 24-20 is the kind of score the Chiefs have flirted with often in big games this year, and usually they came out on the wrong end (Lions, Eagles, Bills). This time I think they make the big play in the 4th quarter.

    Did I mention all of those scores (30-27, 27-23, 24-20) had the Chiefs winning? It actually scares me just how easily I’ve picked KC the whole 2 weeks here. I usually have an easy time setting them up as a legit underdog where I’m quite skeptical they’ll win the game. But for some reason, I just feel confident about this one, and that bugs me a lot.

    But I just think Purdy has the big game mistakes you expect from a young QB in this spot, and the Chiefs have been so reliable on defense this year. This shouldn’t be a 38-35 game like last year, but the Chiefs won that too with Mahomes on a high-ankle sprain and now he’s healthy for this one. I just think it’s hard to bet against him, but I do see the path for a San Francisco victory. I’m just not trusting their defense enough to take it. If you gave this offense the 2019 San Francisco defense, then hands down I am picking the 49ers to win this game. But that’s just not the case in 2023.

    I’ll be back tomorrow night with a season-ending recap of it all. Hopefully it’ll be a memorable night cause the more I see the TD odds getting worse for CMC and the field, the more worried I am we’re getting some 17-9 dud as this season has been filled with island game disappointments. But let’s think positively and that both teams will score at least 20 points and give us a lot to talk about.

    Final: Chiefs 24, 49ers 20 (Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes)

    NFL Stat Oddity: 2023 Conference Championship Games

    We were so close to ending the season how it started, but the Detroit Lions lost a heartbreaker in San Francisco after blowing a 24-7 halftime lead. It happened so quickly too as ball security doomed the Lions.

    Ball security was the concern for the Chiefs this year, but outside of a Mecole Hardman lowlight for the ages in Buffalo, they avoided those mistakes this postseason, and that’s why they are heading to their fourth Super Bowl in the last five years. Only the 1990-93 Bills and 2014-18 Patriots can say they’ve done that.

    Experience really did seem to win out Sunday as the Chiefs and 49ers have been in the last several championship games while the Lions and Ravens sunk in unchartered water for those franchises. You saw the Chiefs handle business early and late while the Ravens imploded. The Lions started so strong, but we’ll talk about that horrific third quarter that ended them.

    Both road teams covered in games decided by a grand total of 10 points, but there was actually just 1 lead change all day, and the Ravens technically didn’t have a 4th-quarter comeback attempt as they never had the ball when trailing by 1-8 points. But that still means they finished this season without a single game-winning drive.

    There is a lot to cover, not just from Sunday’s games but also from past talking points from earlier in the season that played out amusingly on Championship Sunday. It is a Super Bowl rematch at the end of the year, but it’s 54 and not 47.

    Music to my ears.

    This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

    Chiefs at Ravens: Patrick Mahomes + Elite Defense = Nightmare Combo for NFL

    I had to break this one down into sections to make sure all the talking points are covered.

    Giving Flowers to the Right Guy for This One

    I am going to start by praising someone who should go down as one of the key contributors to this Kansas City run that still has a shot at getting the dynasty label if they can finish the job in Vegas.

    Steve Spagnuolo is an all-time great defensive coordinator, and this run probably isn’t what it is if the team never hired him in 2019. Those 2018 Chiefs were so explosive on offense and so terrible on defense under coordinator Bob Sutton. That’s how you lose a 54-51 game to Jared Goff. If they didn’t make that switch after the title game loss to the Patriots, I think you’d see these early Mahomes seasons as another one of those offensive juggernauts that watches their defense get shredded every January and has an empty trophy case.

    Spagnuolo never found success as a head coach, but that doesn’t mean you can’t be a great coordinator and specialist. He fits that mold. The 2007 Super Bowl run with the Giants is his biggest achievement when he held the 18-0 Patriots to 14 points in Super Bowl 42.

    But even that year, his regular season defense left something to be desired, and the same was true in Kansas City until this year when they had great numbers across the board, they never allowed more than 27 points in any game, and they allowed the fewest points after halftime with his adjustments.  But in big games, you can usually trust Spags to deliver something. They sacked Joe Burrow 5 times in last year’s AFC Championship Game, and they were all over Lamar Jackson in Baltimore on Sunday.

    In a league where so many of the top defensive minds have repeatedly seen their defenses tank in the playoffs and make opponents look better than average (yeah, we’re calling out Mike Tomlin and Sean McDermott, among others), Spagnuolo usually exceeds expectations with his defense.

    This is Andy Reid’s offense, but Spagnuolo is his defensive ace in the hole. Another great job on Sunday.

    The Unbelievable Start

    Over bettors (44.5) have to be in shambles this one ended 17-10, because the start of the game was unbelievable stuff.

    The Chiefs were right to kick off after winning the coin toss. I liked receiving first for the underdogs in the last two rounds, but the Chiefs are a veteran team, and an early 7-0 hole isn’t going to bother them. But they started things properly with a three-and-out, then the offense went to work with another brilliant opening drive in a playoff game.

    Patrick Mahomes would set a tone for the day that he was going to get the ball out quickly and to his best players. He converted a 4th-and-2 with a nice grab by Travis Kelce for 13 yards, and it was right back to Kelce with safety Kyle Hamilton in coverage for a 19-yard touchdown to open the scoring.

    The Ravens were able to answer with a helter-skelter drive where Lamar Jackson almost got called for intentional grounding after a deep retreat, took off for 21 yards on a 4th-and-1 QB Power run from his own 34, then avoided a sack from Willie Gay’s replacement at linebacker only to find Zay Flowers alone for a 30-yard touchdown to tie the game. Wild stuff, but you can see early on from that drive that the Chiefs were bringing it after finishing No. 2 in pressure rate and sacks this season.

    The Chiefs answered with another great drive where they converted all 4 of their third-down opportunities, including a ridiculous play from Mahomes to Kelce where he held the ball for nearly 10 seconds, and Kelce made a great diving catch. Isiah Pacheco finished the drive off with a 2-yard touchdown run a few minutes into the second quarter.

    After three straight touchdown drives, this looked like it might be a wild shootout, proving a couple of multiple MVP winners outweigh the presence of the top two scoring defenses. But that would be the end of the touchdowns for the day.

    The Defenses Step Up

    Remember how the Chiefs almost got to Jackson on the touchdown drive? They got to him good on the ensuing drive, and the blindside hit produced a strip-sack and the Chiefs suddenly had the ball at the Baltimore 33.

    But instead of taking a 21-7 lead, the Chiefs were stopped after driving 20 yards and turned it over on downs. It looked like Kelce had a 3rd-and-9 conversion, but the replay proved he was just a hair short. The Chiefs’ refusal to run the quarterback sneak since Mahomes was injured (dislocated kneecap) on that play in Denver in 2019 is a real bummer, because they are depriving themselves of the most effective play from scrimmage in this game. They tried to run Pacheco for the 4th-and-1, but he was stuffed and the Chiefs blew the opportunity from the fumble.

    Without standout guard Joe Thuney available, the Chiefs didn’t have much of a strong push in the interior line against a tough defense, especially after those first two drives. The backs only finished with 69 yards on 25 carries.

    Then when Jackson caught his own pass on a deflection for a 13-yard gain, it was starting to look like maybe this would be Baltimore’s day after another shaky start. This play was shades of Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota catching his own pass and scoring a touchdown in the 2017 wild card upset in Arrowhead.

    Incredibly, Jackson went to halftime with only 4 completions besides that play. The Chiefs did not let him get into a rhythm, and some of the play-calling from Baltimore was questionable. How does Gus Edwards get 1 carry in the first half when it went for 15 yards? I used to think under Greg Roman that Jackson would struggle in these Kansas City games because he’d try to keep up with Mahomes as a passer, and that’s just not what Baltimore is built to do.

    Now you go to this game, and the Ravens had more passing efficiency this year than in years past, but the Chiefs have the right mixture of pass rush and strong corner play to make things very hard on Jackson. And if we’re being honest, was a receiving corps of Zay Flowers (rookie), Odell Beckham Jr. (aged veteran), and marginal receivers like Nelson Agholor (drops) and Rashod Bateman (ghostly at times) really all that great to begin with? Throw in Mark Andrews just coming back from injury.

    Count that as another reason I was not buying the Baltimore offensive hype for why Jackson should win MVP. This was a good rushing team that is made better by Jackson’s rushing threat and production (especially as a scrambler), and they took advantage of the best field position from having the best defense to score more points than expected.

    But they weren’t getting those short fields in this game. Even when they did, they did nothing with it like the drive with 2:47 left in the half. The Ravens started at their own 41, and it was a big opportunity to tie the game. But the offense went 3-and-out after Jackson threw a couple of incompletions.

    The Chiefs took over with 1:46 left at their own 11, and the Ravens started to lose their composure with a couple of 15-yard penalties for unnecessary roughness on the defense, including a roughing the passer call for hitting Mahomes in the face. It may have been accidental, but it was a big shot to the face and an easy call.

    But the Chiefs stalled just shy of the red zone after guard Trey Smith was called for back-to-back holding penalties. The second one wiped out a 33-yard touchdown on a screen to Rashee Rice, but it didn’t look like much of a hold either. The Chiefs ended up settling fo a 52-yard field goal, and Harrison Butker did well to split the uprights.

    The Chiefs led 17-7 at halftime, flipping the script on the front-running Ravens who were used to leading at the half this year. But the Chiefs no doubt left some opportunities on the field for even more points.

    The Scoreless Third

    Again, the Chiefs allowed the fewest points after halftime this season, and their own offense had some issues at times after the half as well. Remember the 3-week stretch where they didn’t score a single point after halftime against the Broncos, Dolphins, and Eagles?

    It happened again this time, adding to the misery of the Ravens that they couldn’t win a game where the Chiefs scored 3 points on their final 9 drives. In fact, the Chiefs are only the 7th team to win a playoff game where they didn’t score more than 17 points and didn’t score after halftime. It hadn’t happened since the 2005 Redskins beat Tampa Bay 17-10, the game I remember best for watching the weekend the furnace broke and it was bitter cold.

    But it was fascinating watching these defenses repeatedly stop these offenses, especially after the way the game started with those 3 straight touchdown drives.

    The Chiefs were not getting effective runs, center Creed Humphrey’s snaps were getting lower and lower, and the Ravens were getting wise to the short passes out to Rice and the running backs. They kept stifling those for no gain or even a loss of yards.

    But the Ravens really weren’t doing any better outside of the odd completion to a running back in the flat. But after getting into Kansas City territory, Jackson was sacked on a 3rd-and-9 and knocked out of field goal range. The Ravens had to punt.

    I read on Twitter the lights went out in the stadium during break, and my mind went to Super Bowl 47 (49ers-Ravens) when that happened in New Orleans. The Ravens were up big at the time, and the 49ers got back in the game after that delay. I was thinking are these hypocrites going to be okay with this possibly helping the Ravens calm down and finish this comeback? Did they purposely try it after what happened in that Super Bowl?

    Well, it was done on purpose by Baltimore, and it was for a reason as corny as you could think of. They brought out Terrell Suggs to pump up the crowd and team. I didn’t even think you were allowed to do something like that except for before the kickoff. Talk about desperate.

    But the Chiefs did go 3-and-out in their own end. When the Ravens got the ball back, Flowers was all alone for a 54-yard gain, but then he made the stupid decision of taunting and drew a 15-yard flag. Take your pick for that one. It could have been for standing over the receiver, throwing the ball at him, or talking trash. Just a stupid mistake to lose some of the yards from the longest play of the game.

    But that mistake was quickly forgotten about as the game moved to the 4th quarter with the Ravens still down 17-7.

    The Final Quarter

    Flowers giveth and Flowers taketh away. He had a hard game to analyze because he made big plays with 115 yards and the team’s only touchdown. But he also self-destructed this drive and entered playoff lore with a fumble for the highlight reels for years to come. Earnest Byner? Jeremy Hill? Jerome Bettis? You have company from a division mate.

    On the first play of the quarter, Flowers took a short pass from Jackson and looked like he was going to score. But the ball came out and the Chiefs recovered in the end zone for a touchback. Did he break the plane first for a score? I thought he did live, but replay was definitive and L’Jarius Sneed made perhaps his biggest play for the Chiefs with a forced fumble:

    https://twitter.com/YahooSports/status/1751734825294397674/video/1

    Incredible play. According to Next Gen Stats, this fumble cut Baltimore’s win probability in half from 28.3% to 13.5%. But it still felt like the Ravens had a chance if only because the Chiefs did not capitalize on a few opportunities to grow the lead.

    But speaking of incredible plays, Mahomes took his first sack of the game and he almost got out of it before Jadeveon Clowney, who was penalized for roughing the passer on the previous play, got him down.

    You really don’t want to see him bending like that in the playoffs, but that was close to an escape. But the Chiefs had to punt again, and it was a hell of a punt as it pinned the Ravens at their 1 with 10:35 left.

    If Lamar wanted a legacy drive to restore some faith in this game, this was the chance. The field was obviously a long one to drive, but I can’t say the Ravens were helping themselves to make it look possible. When Jackson scrambled on a 3rd-and-1, I thought for sure he was waiting for a lane to take off for a scramble and first down, but he only hesitated more and took a sack for a 2-yard loss.

    That was the moment where it felt like the Chiefs won the game if he’s making that kind of play on a 3rd-and-1. But the Chiefs really could have won the game if they stopped the Ravens on 4th-and-3 from their own 18 as I thought that was a ballsy call by John Harbaugh. Sure, they could justify going for that, but the defense was playing great and it’s game over without that conversion. But Jackson converted with a 6-yard pass to Odell Beckham, and that seemed to ease some pressure for the time being.

    Agholor caught a 39-yard deep ball to get this drive moving faster, but two plays later, Jackson threw a pick in the end zone despite three defenders around tight end Isaiah Likely. Why in the world was Likely putting his hand up like he was Randy Moss? He wasn’t open.

    Only 6:45 remained, but this was Kansas City’s second takeaway of the quarter. It was the first time since Week 7 against the Chargers that the Chiefs had multiple takeaways in a game. Ouch, Ravens. Ouch.

    But the Chiefs went 3-and-out again after Mahomes was sacked for the second time. A good punt return gave the Ravens their best starting field position of the day at their 46, and they were able to set up a 43-yard field goal from Justin Tucker with 2:34 left to make it 17-10. Did the officials swallow their whistles a bit in the fourth quarter? Yeah, you could say that. But I don’t think there was anything egregious enough worth a flag on those final Baltimore throws. Jackson didn’t even have an intended target on the last one as he looked to throw it away out of bounds.

    The Chiefs had 2:34 left to burn. Mahomes probably hasn’t been quite the God of 4-minute offense like he was in that 2020 season when he was automatic at putting the game away, but this was the opportunity here. The Ravens started the drive with too many men on the field for a 5-yard penalty, which is an embarrassing way to start a drive. Was it intentional? I’m not sure it could be to give any real advantage. Now knocking a lineman over pre-snap like the Ravens did on the next play, that was surely intentional to manipulate the clock. The Ravens even got popped for a 15-yard flag for that one, but the end result was 6 seconds passes and the Chiefs still had 1st-and-10 after moving up 20 yards.

    After holding Pacheco to gains of -1 and 2 yards, the Ravens had what they wanted with a 3rd-and-9 at the 2:19 mark after having used their final timeout. A conversion wins the game for the Chiefs, and a stop gives the Ravens one more chance. It had to be a pass all the way.

    The Ravens only rushed 4, and Mahomes decided to go deep to the unlikeliest of targets in Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but the receiver who seems to only show up for Championship Sunday made his best play all year with a 32-yard grab while falling down to complete the process of the catch. Here, it’s even better with the Korean audio calling it:

    That’s ballgame. In the regular season, MVS likely drops that pass, and the Ravens get another shot. Maybe they blow it quickly. Maybe they force overtime with a touchdown. Maybe they win by going for 2. But the Chiefs avoided all of that drama because MVS finally just made the play and it clinched another playoff win, the 14th for this core group since 2018.

    In the end, the best team won, the best quarterback won, and while the Ravens finished strong on defense, the Chiefs made the bigger plays on that side of the ball as well.

    Lamar Jackson: Not Saying I Told You So, But…

    I had a tweet go somewhat viral this week – almost 500,000 views for a longform post with no pictures or video is pretty good – that irked some fans of the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens who largely misinterpreted what I was saying.

    My point was Josh Allen is a great quarterback, Mahomes is better, but quarterback play is not how the Bills are ever going to get past the Chiefs and into a Super Bowl. They need their defense to step up and make Mahomes look mortal or knock him down a peg in a playoff game instead of making him even better than usual. Apparently, Joe Burrow and Tom Brady are the lucky ones who got their defenses to do that to Mahomes for a half or a full Super Bowl, or they won a coin toss in overtime and got the ball again unlike Josh in the 13 Seconds game. Buffalo’s failures on defense are why they haven’t gotten the job done despite the league’s 2nd-best record since 2019 and a 3-1 regular-season record against Mahomes. They implode defensively in the playoffs against Mahomes, and it isn’t Allen’s job to defend him better.

    Along the way, I brought up Lamar Jackson and the fact he is 0-3 in the playoffs when the Ravens allow more than 13 points (0-4 now). I said he would implode against the Chiefs in those playoff games that Allen lost to them with Buffalo.

    I’m not even going to repeat some of the ridiculous things people said to me about that part, but the idea that I was taking a shot at Lamar for no reason is just not true. He was Kansas City’s next opponent, and he is a top peer of Allen’s and Mahomes’ in this AFC. His history is relevant, and knowing his history as I did, that’s why my claim he would implode was not at all baseless. I had strong reasons to feel that way:

    • Lamar was 1-3 against the high-flying Chiefs of 2018-21, only winning in 2021 against their worst defense in a game where he still threw multiple picks and needed CEH to fumble in game-winning field goal territory.
    • Lamar is 3-14 against playoff teams that score more than 21 points against his team.
    • Why more than 21? Mahomes led the Chiefs to at least 22 points in 15-of-16 career playoff games before Sunday.
    • Why not include 21 points? Because scoring 21 points is a below-average scoring figure for every NFL season since 2007.
    • Finally, Lamar was 0-3 in the playoffs when teams scored more than 13 points, already losing 23-17 to the Chargers and 17-3 to Buffalo in a game where he threw a pick-six.

    When you mix all of that together as I do in my mind, why would I expect anything but an implosion if he had to face a Kansas City team in the playoffs that scored 38, 42, and 27 points the way the Chiefs did against Allen’s Buffalo defense?

    Sure enough, he imploded against the Chiefs in the playoffs, but it was in a low-scoring game, which makes it even worse. The Chiefs only scored 17 points on 11 drives. You’ll take that against Mahomes any chance you get. Even 17 points on 10 drives (Chiefs ran out clock on last drive) is great work by the defense.

    The Ravens scored 10 points on 10 drives, which tied their lowest scoring output of the season with Lamar at quarterback. In fact, the team lost a pair of 17-10 games to Pittsburgh, and now it’s another 17-10 game in the playoffs. And Jackson was much better in that Pittsburgh loss than he was on Sunday. At least he can blame his receivers for dropping a couple of touchdowns that day.

    He can blame Flowers for costing him a second touchdown drive in this game with that fumble at the 1, but this is still highly disappointing stuff in what was supposed to be his year with everything aligning and all the dominant wins over good teams they had.

    But again, this continues to make Lamar look like a big outlier as he is now 4-for-4 at scoring his season low in the playoffs.

    • Lamar Jackson (100%): four times in four postseasons (2018, 2019, 2020, 2023-T)
    • Joe Flacco (28.6%): twice in seven postseasons (2009, 2023)
    • Philip Rivers (28.6%): twice in seven postseasons (2007, 2009)
    • Tom Brady (25.0%): five times in 20 postseasons (2005, 2007, 2011-T, 2012, 2019-T)
    • Cam Newton (25.0%): once in four postseasons (2015)
    • Peyton Manning (20.0%): three times in 15 postseasons (2002, 2004, 2013)
    • Josh Allen (20.0%): once in five postseasons (2022)
    • Matthew Stafford (20.0%): once in five postseasons (2016-T)
    • Patrick Mahomes (16.7%): once in six postseasons (2020)
    • Matt Ryan (16.7%): once in six postseasons (2011)
    • Russell Wilson (12.5%): once in eight postseasons (2015)
    • Drew Brees (10.0%): once in 10 postseasons (2020)
    • Dak Prescott (0.0%): zero times in 5 postseasons
    • Aaron Rodgers (0.0%): zero times in 11 postseasons
    • Ben Roethlisberger (0.0%): zero times in 12 postseasons

    This was also Jackson’s fourth wire-to-wire playoff loss (never led), so if you’re still going to try comparing him to early Peyton Manning in the playoffs, just stop. It’s not close.

    And it’s not like I was all for keeping this narrative alive, but you have to when this is the performance he’s putting out there in the biggest game of his career. For a change, I’d like to actually say I predicted a season’s Super Bowl winner before Week 1. I was not on the Kansas City repeat train. At least not until about 6:20 PM ET on Sunday.

    The Ravens were my preseason Super Bowl pick and Lamar was my Super Bowl MVP. I got that one wrong again, but I really thought this could be their year, and they had what they needed with home-field advantage, a great defense, the best kicker, better receivers and scheme under the new offensive coordinator.

    But this looked like your same old Ravens and same old Lamar in a big game. I actually think he should have ran the ball more than he did, because that’s where he still looks most comfortable and dangerous to me.

    That’s why I never bought into the MVP surge for him that only came late in December after they had those big wins against the 49ers and Dolphins. But if you followed the season closely, you know that wasn’t your typical MVP season or offense. They had the shortest fields thanks to the defense that was No. 1 at points allowed, sacks, and takeaways.

    I wrote earlier this week that any team that loses to Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett, and Deshaun Watson can certainly lose to Patrick Mahomes with the best defense of his career. It reminded me of when I said the 2007 Patriots aren’t going undefeated after seeing how they should have lost to A.J. Feeley (Eagles) and Kyle Boller (Ravens) in back-to-back weeks. I had to wait until deep in the Super Bowl for that one to com true.

    I just needed Mahomes and the Chiefs to show up Sunday to take care of this one. And yes, I picked Lamar as the default MVP, because no one else deserved it. He doesn’t either as I have repeatedly said no one had a true MVP season in 2023. The race was always cooked, and someone was going to steal it late. I fundamentally don’t believe a quarterback should win MVP when their team is clearly driven by the best defense instead of the offense. Hopefully that won’t happen again in the future, but it was unavoidable with this season’s race.

    The Five-Year Rule

    If the Super Bowl couldn’t happen for them this year, when does it happen for the Ravens with Lamar? Does it ever happen with John Harbaugh as the coach, or do they move on there eventually? We’ve said similar things about Josh Allen and Sean McDermott in Buffalo, and sure enough, the Five-Year Rule survived its toughest challenge yet.

    That was the article I wrote for FiveThirtyEight in 2017 about how no team has ever won its first Super Bowl starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than 5 seasons.

    Both drafted in 2018, this was already Year 6 for McDermott-Allen and Harbaugh-Jackson. I thought maybe the Ravens got some extra life for Lamar having back-to-back December injuries in 2021-22, so he didn’t really get a normal 5 seasons.

    But nope, Mahomes and the Chiefs went on the road and slayed them both again. And this was supposed to be the worst Kansas City team with the worst offense and receivers. Remember, this Kansas City team lost at home to the Raiders with Andrew Walter Aidan O’Connell not completing a pass after the first quarter on Christmas. That was barely a full month ago.

    But Mahomes continues to be the outlier. Maybe if he did get drafted by Chicago in 2017, the Bills and Ravens would have already been to a Super Bowl each. Maybe they still lose those games, but they should have at least been ready in the post-Brady AFC to take advantage.

    Allen’s offensive output against the Chiefs in January has been just fine. It’s his defense that needs to step up. As I correctly predicted and we now have a data point of proof, Lamar’s offensive output against the Chiefs in the playoffs was trash today, and he is the one who needs to step up more than his defense in the postseason. That’s also evident by literally every playoff run of his career.

    I hope that clears up why I talk about Allen as the best young active quarterback in the playoffs behind Mahomes. But like the rest of the league, they’re all looking up to the best player in the game.

    Mahomes Is 1 of 1

    Finally, what more can you say about Mahomes? Give him an elite defense and he’s right back in the Super Bowl. His QBR this postseason is also 90.2, which would be the 5th-highest since 2006 (min. 2 games).

    It was a down year in the regular season for sure, but my argument for months has been that his play has not slipped as much as the mistakes around him (drops, fumbles, penalties) have shot up. It was always an outlier to have as many significant drops and penalties as they had to take away game-winning plays against the Lions, Eagles, and Bills, all playoff teams.

    If they could just limit those mistakes, they were going to have a good shot at repeating behind Mahomes and the best defense of his career, and here we are. He’s now at 14 playoff wins, already tying him for 3rd all time with the likes of Terry Bradshaw, John Elway, and Peyton Manning.

    Never won a road playoff game? Took care of that with a pair, and he was an underdog both times. That also gives him one up on Joe Montana and Tom Brady, who did something very similar the game before they won their 3rd Super Bowl ring:

    • In the 1988 NFC Championship Game before he won his 3rd Super Bowl, Joe Montana beat the No. 1 scoring defense (Bears) on the road in a 28-3 win (49ers were favored by 2).
    • In the 2004 AFC Championship Game before he won his 3rd Super Bowl, Tom Brady beat the No. 1 scoring defense (Steelers) on the road in a 41-27 win (Patriots were favored by 3).

    Mahomes can win his 3rd ring now after beating the No. 1 scoring defense (Ravens) on the road in the AFC title game, but he also did it as a 4.5-point underdog.

    Twenty years ago, I thought the 2003 AFC Championship Game ruined quarterback discourse for the next two decades when Tom Brady tried matching Peyton Manning pick for pick but only one defense made the quarterback pay for his mistakes. I thought the 2023 AFC Championship Game could have been a significant factor in how the next decade is viewed for quarterbacks, and maybe it will be.

    But it will be to show that Mahomes is just in his own class right now.

    The AFC let him get through last year on a high-ankle sprain. Having his health and a great defense is almost unfair now.

    Lions at 49ers: Third Quarter from Hell Ends Dream Season for Detroit

    I always thought the Lions (+7.5) had a decent shot this week despite the spread, because this team can score, it can run and pass, it can shut down the run, and you just know Dan Campbell is going to do some aggressive things.

    Campbell is certainly facing criticism for his decisions in this game, but I don’t think that’s where Detroit lost its 24-7 lead. It was largely from one terrible quarter after what was nearly a flawless half.

    The Lions were dominating on the ground with Jameson Williams scoring a 42-yard touchdown run and looking more like Deebo Samuel on the play to start the game. The 49ers missed a 48-yard field goal from rookie Jake Moody, exactly the type of break an underdog needs.

    Brock Purdy forced a bad ball in the second quarter that was intercepted and not dropped this time, and that set up another Detroit touchdown run for a 21-7 lead. Purdy was a bit off again despite having Deebo back this week.

    The Lions used the final 5 minutes of the half to get a field goal, and you’re almost shocked they decided to kick it from the 3-yard line given how much Campbell loves to go for it. But that was the right call as only 10 seconds remained, you don’t get the advantage of field position should you fail, and the 49ers were getting the ball to start the next half. Going up 24-7 was the right move.

    At that point, Campbell and the Lions really could do no wrong. But after the 49ers quickly got a field goal, the Lions went on a fateful drive that changed everything. Their win probability was over 90% as they led 224-10 and were driving again after scoring on 4-of-5 drives in the first half.

    But on a 4th-and-2 at the San Francisco 28, Campbell bypassed the 46-yard field goal and kept his offense on the field. Jared Goff threw a solid pass and Josh Reynolds just dropped the conversion. I think it was the right call as the Lions do not have a great kicker like a Matt Prater (former Lion), let alone Justin Tucker or Harrison Butker. I think trying to make the 49ers go down 21 was the right call, or you could also work on more clock and kick a shorter field goal that’s more likely to go in and make it a 17-point game again. My beef is with Reynolds for dropping it, not the call itself.

    But that’s kind of where the game was lost. Reynolds didn’t make a fairly easy catch, and the 49ers had the break of the game when a deep ball for Brandon Aiyuk clanked off the facemask of defender Kindle Vildor, and Aiyuk caught it on the deflection for a huge 51-yard gain.

    There was a flag initially thrown on the play but it was picked up entirely. That doesn’t mean it was declined, it was just not called, so if Vidor could catch, that’s an interception for Detroit. Instead, it’s a 51-yard gain and the longest play of the game. Do I have my new LOAT target in Purdy?

    Aiyuk finished that drive for a touchdown to make it 24-17, then the Lions fumbled on a funky looking handoff to Jahmyr Gibbs on the very next snap, setting up the 49ers from 24 yards out for the tying touchdown, which they got on the ground with Christian McCaffrey.

    It only took the 49ers about 12 minutes to erase that 17-point deficit. It just felt like the Lions were cooked at that point, and they did respond with a 3-and-out after Reynolds had another atrocious drop on 3rd-and-long that would have extended that drive.

    The 49ers drove into scoring range after a big pass to George Kittle (28 yards) for his only positive gain of the game, but it was a big one. Despite back-to-back sacks by the Lions to stall the drive, the 49ers took their first lead at 27-24 with a 33-yard field goal.

    The Lions moved the ball but were facing a 4th-and-3 at the San Francisco 30 with 7:38 left. I know it’s in the team’s DNA to go for it, but I think you really have to consider the field goal here. The 49ers were hot, your offense was a mess this half, and 48 yards is a reasonable kick. But the Lions went for it, and Goff was unable to connect with Amon-Ra St. Brown with half a quarter left. Uh-oh.

    I know the other factor is kicker Michael Badgley is not a great player at all, and he could have easily missed that kick. But I’m just not sure going for it was the right call in that spot. If they were closer, I could see it, but time was a factor now, and you are playing an offense good enough to put the game away with another score.

    That ended up being exactly what happened too. Now this debate with Purdy and system quarterbacks will wage on, but he is a better runner than Jimmy Garoppolo ever was, and his legs were very effective as a scrambler in this game. He was able to rip off a 21-yard run on a 3rd-and-4 from midfield that had to rip the hearts out of Detroit fans.

    Then when McCaffrey finally had a big gain with a 25-yard run to the 3, you could see the end was a snap or two away. The 49ers punched it in and led 34-24 with 3:02 left. The Detroit Super Bowl dream was all but dead.

    The hope was to get a touchdown while saving all the timeouts and having enough time to get a field goal or touchdown. They almost pulled it off, but I thought a pass in the flat to Anthony Firkser was a huge missed opportunity as he didn’t score on the play and instead got out at the 1-yard line. At least he got out to stop the clock, but when David Montgomery got stuffed for a 2-yard loss on 3rd down, that destroyed the drive. The Lions ended up having to burn a precious timeout, then decided to go for the touchdown anyway on 4th-and-goal given the dire prospects. Fortunately, Williams came down with a nice touchdown grab and that made it 34-31 with 56 seconds left.

    But since they burned that timeout, it was all coming down to the onside kick. Those have gotten so hard to do and the number this year was reportedly 2-for-41 (4.9%). The Lions had a faint glimmer of hope for a second, but the 49ers recovered, and it would have been a penalty on Detroit for touching the ball before 10 yards anyway to negate a recovery. The game was over after the 49ers ran out every last second.

    Just pure heartbreak for Detroit because they were so close and looked so good at halftime. I think the poor ball security killed them more than any choice to go for 4th down did, and maybe if they had a better kicker, they’d trust that more. You never know if you are going to get back to this point, but you have to think maybe Williams can develop into their WR2 to replace an awful Reynolds performance, and the best days could be ahead for Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs. There’s some hope there but NFC is tough as it usually has a new flash in the pan team every year.

    But one mainstay has been the 49ers, who are going to the Super Bowl for the 2nd time since 2019 and it’s a rematch with the Chiefs again. I’ll have to write so much about this game the next two weeks that it’s pointless to go into it now, but I think it can be a great game again. But it should be different from LIV.

    If you told me the 49ers would trail after halftime the way they have this postseason, I’d never believe they made it to the Super Bowl. But they answered the bell with overcoming adversity, and you could still say they haven’t played their best on either side of the ball yet this postseason.

    I hope these 2 weeks go quickly, because that should be a fun night in Vegas with this matchup. But definitely am a little bummed out the Lions didn’t finish the job and give their fan bases a Super Bowl appearance.

    Next 2 weeks: I’m happy. The last thing I wanted was a Super Bowl with both No. 1 seeds as I always believed since Christmas night that would have produced an awful, one-sided game. And I was not looking forward to 2 weeks of researching if a pair of front-running teams can produce a close game or writing about “if Brock Purdy can just avoid the turnovers on deflected balls.” Well, I might still write something like that multiple times with many pieces to come on this game, but 49ers-Chiefs provides good writing opportunities with a recent history and teams that have changed quite a bit from 2019. I can dig it as the game to decide this 2023 season.

    NFL 2023 Conference Championship Game Predictions

    After a long week, it’s almost time for Championship Sunday. Both No. 1 seeds are favored but crazier things have happened before. Final score predictions below.

    This Week’s Articles

    NFL Conference Championship Game Predictions

    Here is my grid for picks this weekend. Many of the props are explained in the links above.

    Chiefs at Ravens (-4.5)

    It seems like every year when the Chiefs are in a big game like this, I go back to my Super Bowl LIV preview before they beat the 2019 49ers and the same logic applies to the next game.

    This is a game that a team like the Ravens should win most of the time. They have home-field advantage (a good one at that), they have the No. 1 defense, No. 1 running game, a quarterback playing with a chip on his shoulder who is about to get the MVP award again, the best kicker in the game, a coach who has won big games before, and they have killed some top teams this year. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are challenged at wide receiver, have a poor turnover differential, don’t often start games well, don’t protect the ball well, and it probably is going to rain during the game to possibly exacerbate these ball security issues with drops and fumbles against a ball-hawking defense and front-running team.

    All that said, the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, and that usually is good enough to win the game. He’s 3-1 against the Ravens and would be 4-0 if CEH didn’t fumble in game-winning field goal territory in the last matchup in 2021. He’s 12-2 against top 5 defenses (7-0 away from Arrowhead), he’s 13-3 in the playoffs, and he’s 8-3 as an underdog. He even comes into this game with his best defense as this is a matchup of the top two scoring defenses, so that differential is more on his side this week than in past big games this time of year.

    If the Chiefs can cut down on their mistakes, and Kadarius Toney is inactive again (that helps), I think they win the game. But the Ravens were my preseason Super Bowl pick, Lamar Jackson was my Super Bowl MVP pick, and I’ve been predicting doom in the playoffs for the Chiefs since October:

    Not going to change my pick now, so here we go. KC to cover but another egregious mistake by one of Mahomes’ teammates costs them the repeat bid.

    Final: Ravens 24, Chiefs 21

    Lions at 49ers (-7.5)

    It sounds like Deebo Samuel is playing, which doesn’t help Detroit’s cause as they try to make their first Super Bowl. In a weird way, I think if the Chiefs win the first game, the Lions are winning this game to set up that rematch from opening night. Otherwise, it’s No. 1 vs. No. 1 in the SB, and I’m not sure how many times I can keep writing for 2 weeks how Brock Purdy needs to protect the ball better against that defense this time.

    But isn’t that always the case with Purdy and this team? They don’t have normal weaknesses, and they actually showed they could win a close game and overcome some adversity last week against Green Bay. If he doesn’t throw a pick parade, you have to like their chances against anybody, but I am looking to see how the defense fares against one of the best offenses they’ll see this year.

    The problem is Detroit comes in with the No. 23 defense and has allowed 5 straight quarterbacks to pass for 345+ yards. They’ve still gone 4-1 in those games and would have been 5-0 if not for a certain ending in Dallas, but that kind of bad secondary play is going to catch up to you, and the 49ers obviously scheme open receivers better than any team in the league. That’s why I love Brandon Aiyuk to step up and dominate this week, though the return of Deebo could hurt that. Watch it be a George Kittle masterclass instead. That’s the problem for Detroit, the 49ers are just loaded.

    But I am going to be keenly watching for how aggressive Dan Campbell is as a road underdog. He’s had it a little easy at home as a favorite these last two playoff games. Curious to see how many 4th downs he goes for, if he does anything like a fake punt or surprise onside to steal a possession. Anything to win the game.

    But in the end, I think the 49ers are too balanced and simply better than the Lions, so I have to go with the home team. But the Lions should be able to cover even if it’s through the backdoor.

    Final: 49ers 30, Lions 23