NFL Week 11 Predictions & Chiefs-Broncos Preview

November 17, 2013November 17, 2013 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We have three key games to focus on this week (49ers at Saints, Chiefs at Broncos and Patriots at Panthers), but one stands above the rest.

Chiefs at Broncos

I’ve already had a lot to say and tweet about this game, so I’m not going to repeat much of that here.

Simply put, I don’t believe in the Chiefs’ 9-0 record or that their defense is one of the all-time best. I think it’s a reflection of who they have played, which shouldn’t impress anyone. The Denver offense is historically impressive and has dominated to a higher level than the Chiefs’ defense. There’s also stronger correlation and consistency in maintaining offensive performance than there is defense. You can throw a touchdown to Wes Welker many times in the red zone, but once in a blue moon will you get Jeff Tuel’s gracious peace offering for a 100-yard pick-six.

The only reason I don’t think the Broncos easily win by 17+ points is because Kansas City’s catching them at the best possible time. The Chiefs had a bye week to rest and prepare. Jack Del Rio is in at interim head coach following John Fox’s surgery. Peyton Manning aggravated his high ankle sprain at the end of last week’s game and we don’t know how he’ll handle the outside pressure since his tackles are struggling. It’s also going to be pretty cold and while the “Manning in bad weather” thing is BS, no old quarterback with neck and ankle issues is going to benefit from that.

What I do know is you have to score a lot of points to beat a Peyton Manning team and I don’t think Alex Smith is capable of doing it on Sunday night. This so-called “winner” is 2-23 when his team allows more than 24 points. He’s 11-24 against teams with a winning record and has 35 TD to 40 INT in those games (just one 300-yard passing game). He’s 5-16 on the road against good teams and averages 164 passing yards in those contests.

Maybe Smith can get it done in Arrowhead in a 23-20 game (against Brock Osweiler given his luck lately), but the Denver defense plays better at home and Von Miller is going to have his say too.

To beat Manning you have to put up a lot of points or shrink the game and limit his possessions, forcing him to be basically perfect (maximum efficiency). The Chiefs have done neither this season. The offense has never scored more than 24 points and their games almost always include double-digit possessions.

Excluding those pesky playoff rest games, here’s every Manning loss since 2007 and what his defense did (kneel-down drives excluded):

For context, anything above 3.0 Pts/Dr is incredibly elite while 2.48 Pts/Dr means you have to be a top-2 offense. 1.80 would be just above average in recent seasons.

You have to go back to the 6-INT night in San Diego to find a game where Manning lost despite the opposing offense being below average in scoring. Darren Sproles had two return touchdowns and even then Manning was a missed 29-yard field goal by Adam Vinatieri in erasing a 23-0 deficit for a win. Even if the Chiefs get a lead of 17-24 points, we know from every Denver loss since 2012 that those aren’t safe.

Meanwhile here’s the Chiefs’ 2013 offense and their per-drive production:

So let’s see… The Chiefs average 1.58 Pts/Dr this year and this is despite having the best average starting field position in football. I noticed a lot of their scoring drives started deep in opponent territory, so their scoring is even less impressive than it already sounds. They feast on mistakes, which the Broncos are certainly guilty of since 2012, so ball security is a must this week.

In Manning’s last 19 losses, no one had less than 1.89 Pts/Dr. That would be the 3rd-best game of the season for the Chiefs.

Given you seemingly need to hit at least 2.0 Pts/Dr to beat Manning, who’s expecting the Chiefs’ offense to deliver on their end? There’s Jamaal Charles, but there’s not much else to worry about.

Simply put, Manning hasn’t lost to an offense this bad since David Carr and the 2006 Houston Texans (ranked 23rd with 1.50 Pts/Dr). How did that one work out? Houston rushed for 191 yards, limited Manning to six possessions, got one fumble from Dominic Rhodes and still needed a 48-yard game-winning field goal with no time left in a 27-24 game.

The KC defense should not give up 40+, but nothing short of their offense having their best game of the season will win this one. I also don’t think the Chiefs can win without being at least +2 in turnover differential.

According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs have the No. 2 pass defense (DVOA). Here’s a table of Manning’s last 29 games against a top 5 pass defense (DVOA) since 2003. Playoff rest games are colored as are the five games I would consider “bad performances” from Manning. That’s an unscientific way of saying games where he was more of the problem than the solution for his team.

We’ll revisit this matchup in two weeks and perhaps again in January, but I just see the Broncos as a superior team even if they are vulnerable right now.

Final prediction: Chiefs 16, Broncos 27.

2013 NFL Week 11 Predictions

The Colts rarely make it look easy, but I had them on TNF.

Winners in bold:

Redskins at Eagles
Raiders at Texans
Falcons at Buccaneers
Browns at Bengals
Ravens at Bears
Lions at Steelers
Jets at Bills
Cardinals at Jaguars
Chargers at Dolphins
49ers at Saints
Packers at Giants
Vikings at Seahawks
Chiefs at Broncos
Patriots at Panthers

Season results:

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 6: 11-4
Week 7: 10-5
Week 8: 10-3
Week 9: 8-5
Week 10: 8-6
Season: 96-51

NFL Week 10 Predictions & 2013 Midseason Awards

November 9, 2013 ~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

The 2013 NFL season is halfway over and we know just a little more than we did in August.

We know four fairly consistent teams are sitting at 2-6 and possibly (likely?) headed for their first losing season in some time: Texans (2010), Falcons (2007), Giants (2004) and Steelers (2003). The Ravens (3-5) may soon join them for the first non-playoff season in the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco era. Too bad that “championship gene” dissolves easily in the offseason without enough talent and luck to keep it together.

It’s unclear how the coaches feel, but Mike Tomlin’s thoughts are easy to predict.

“Obviously, a variety of things create the end result, but it’s a result we’re going to take. We’ll tighten the screws, put a hat on a hat and continue to scoop the proof out of the pudding. We accept every serving we get this season. Sometimes it’s tough to chew, but everyone with a willing, hungry mouth will continue to get his plate filled this season. We have eight games remaining on our schedule and you can guarantee we look forward to completing each and every one of them.”

Speaking of standards being standards, we have a new high and low when it comes to 0-8 teams. The Buccaneers are the best 0-8 team ever while the Jaguars are the least competitive team since the 1970 merger. The Jaguars have trailed thru the end of every game after the 11:34 mark of the second quarter. It wouldn’t shock me if both win this weekend, but as far as 0-8 goes, these teams couldn’t be much different in how they’ve played.

It’s not only the win-less teams standing out for some of the wrong reasons…

Are the 2013 Chiefs the worst 9-0 team ever? Well, despite the soft schedule, their scoring margin is +104, which amazingly is one point ahead of my 2008 Titans (+103) comparison.
Are the 2013 Seahawks the worst 8-1 team ever? This has not been a dominant team and falling behind 21-0 to Tampa Bay will hopefully be a wake-up call.
Are the 2013 Patriots the worst 7-2 team ever? No, thanks to the Pittsburgh defense. With a favorable schedule, don’t count out a No. 1 seed (again) for them.

Oakland will not be the worst 2013 team as I predicted, but Sunday’s loss to Philadelphia sure looked like the team I expected to see often. Thanks for letting Nick Foles devalue the single-game touchdown pass record.

The Colts and Seahawks lead the league with three fourth-quarter comeback wins. Okay, not everything’s changed from last year. We’ll watch Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson battle for the most game-winning drives thru a player’s first two seasons:

We’ll also watch Peyton Manning try to break the records for passing touchdowns and yards in a season. The schedule will likely be too difficult to set any efficiency records, but the volume could go down. He also has the Broncos on pace for 686 points, which would smash the previous record (589):

Week 10 Viewing

Here are some mini-previews for what I’ll be focusing on Sunday afternoon.

Bills at Steelers – I can go on a really long rant about this one, but I’ll try to keep it short. This reeks of a game where the Steelers will do well at home against a rookie quarterback, bringing out the “Dick LeBeau is a master of defense!” narrative because he has a great record against rookies since 2004. He didn’t have to play against Ben Roethlisberger (2004). He didn’t face Matt Ryan (2008). He didn’t see Andrew Luck or Russell Wilson last year. When he played Robert Griffin III, the Redskins had damn-near 12 dropped passes in the game. They stopped themselves. I think the Buffalo running game is a major asset in this one, but EJ Manuel will have to play well in his first game back from injury, which I don’t particularly see happening.

Yet why should anything on Sunday erase the 55-point, 610-yard ass-kicking this defense suffered last week? How does he get a pass for this season for that matter? How can he live down TEBOW? That’s the root problem with the Steelers. No team rests on their laurels as much as they do. As deficiencies have crept up, there’s been no solutions from the GM or Tomlin on how to fix them. Apparently they will fix themselves because “we’re the Steelers, we’ve won six Super Bowls and we’re just going to do what we do.”

Well, the NFL is moving on without you, Pittsburgh. Hopefully you’ll soon turn out the lights in the trophy room and read up on how to build a winner in today’s NFL.

Panthers at 49ers – Both teams have a mobile QB drafted in 2011. Both teams have a stingy defense. Both teams have been on an ass-kicking run against ass-sucking competition. Is it as simple as going with the home team, who just so happens to be the more reliable option? I’m not quick to accept teams without a proven track record. This would be Carolina’s biggest win since at least 2009. We know this team is historically awful in close games and has very few quality wins over the years, so this would be a big step forward. The 49ers, we can trust them more due to the talent they have and their results the last two years under Jim Harbaugh, who had a bye week to prepare for this one.

If Carolina wins I can start to admit I was wrong about them, but they have to show it first. A team I was skeptical on years ago was the 2005 Bengals when Carson Palmer broke out and the defense was getting a ton of interceptions. Without a track record I refused to believe they were legit. I even foolishly made a statement that Palmer would never win a playoff game in his career. Well, he hasn’t, and the Bengals still haven’t won one either. However, I cannot take much credit as that torn ACL suffered in the playoff game certainly had an impact on his/their future.

That’s the NFL sometimes. You can make a prediction, be right about it, but if the reason is something you never had in mind, should you really take credit?

So I’m all about seeing what the Panthers do not only in this game, but against the Patriots in Week 11. Please, make me believe this year is different.

Broncos at Chargers – “Can” the Chargers beat the Broncos? The answer’s always yes to the “can” question, but what would be the reasons? One of them will not be “Mike McCoy knows the Denver offense because he used to be their coordinator!” as that’s a sorry excuse you often hear but rarely ever see matter in a game. Not everyone is as foolish as the 2002 Raiders in how they called the game against Jon Gruden.

Besides, it’s not McCoy’s offense, it’s Peyton Manning’s offense, which defenses haven’t really stopped since he was a rookie. However, when Manning plays San Diego, some weird shit tends to happen. Ask Kenton Keith or San Diego punter Mike Scifres. Last year, Eric Decker tripped and fell on what would have been an 85-yard touchdown. Three plays later Matt Willis ran the wrong route and it cost Denver a pick-six. In the rematch in Denver, Manning had a bubble screen tipped and returned for a touchdown.

If San Diego can put together long drives against a suspect defense (like they did against the Colts), but finish them for touchdowns, while getting some mistakes from the mistake-heavy Broncos, then of course they can win this one. It probably helps that John Fox is out and Jack Del Rio is the interim coach. Though that could actually benefit the Denver offense if Jack Del Riverboat returns and allows Manning to try some fourth-down attempts not done on Fox’s watch. This could be another very interesting shootout or a big Denver comeback.

I’m just happy to finally see a 2013 AFC West game that doesn’t involve Oakland.

2013 Midseason Awards

MVP – Peyton Manning (would be first NFL player to win MVP with two different teams)
Coach – Andy Reid
Offensive – Calvin Johnson
Defensive – Richard Sherman (someone notable from a top defense)
Comeback – Philip Rivers (for previously being lousy?)
OROY – Eddie Lacy
DROY – Kiko Alonso

Those picks of Jamaal Charles for MVP are a cute way of trying to be different and get some page hits, but let’s be honest. No way is the MVP a player on a sub-par unit for a team being carried by its defense against one of the easiest schedules since 1989.

There’s plenty of time left for most of these competitions to heat up, though I have to think Andy Reid has the coach award on lockdown, unless he suffers a second-half slide that could make Josh McDaniels blush.

2013 NFL Week 10 Predictions

Well I’m on a TNF losing streak now after Washington faded following a 27-14 lead.

Winners in bold:

Bengals at Ravens
Bills at Steelers
Lions at Bears
Raiders at Giants
Eagles at Packers
Rams at Colts
Seahawks at Falcons
Jaguars at Titans
Panthers at 49ers
Texans at Cardinals
Broncos at Chargers
Cowboys at Saints
Dolphins at Buccaneers

Season results:

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 6: 11-4
Week 7: 10-5
Week 8: 10-3
Week 9: 8-5
Season: 88-45

I don’t feel confident about picking the Eagles and Bengals, but that’s too many home teams if I didn’t.

I’m not picking the Buccaneers to win because Miami has no leadership and is distracted by douchebaggery, but I just think the two teams are pretty even and Tampa Bay’s been so close to getting a win. It’s time.

Also, the Jaguars are 1-20 in their last 21 games, but the one win was over Tennessee. Mike Munchak’s already lost to an 0-13 team (2011 Colts) in his career. Watch out…

But don’t ever be shocked anymore.

NFL Week 9 Predictions

November 2, 2013 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Last week was about as bad as expected when it came to the quality of games. At least the Cowboys and Lions delivered a regular-season classic for us. This week, I expect things to be a little better, but I’m not sure where the game of the week will come from.

Falcons at Panthers – Yes, Carolina’s won three straight and by a margin of 96-38, but slow the hype train down. It was only the Vikings, Rams and Buccaneers — three teams who will be fortunate to get another win in 2013. It wouldn’t shock me if the Falcons won this game, though I’m just about done with picking Atlanta to do anything this season. The defense is rotten and the losses on offense have been too much to overcome.

Chiefs at Bills – I felt good about putting the Chiefs on upset alert for this one, but with Jeff Tuel likely making his first start in place of Thad Lewis, it should be another typical Chiefs game: a close win over a lousy opponent/QB.

Saints at jets – The Ryan Bowl. It wouldn’t shock me if the Jets pull this one out, but I think the trend of alternating wins and losses comes to an end here. Reminder: the Jets lost last week, in case you forgot when Andy Dalton looked great. If that QB can throw five touchdowns against this defense, what can Drew Brees do?

Steelers at Patriots – Six of the last eight meetings have been decided by 13+ points. Personally, this is the first time I’ll watch this matchup and really not even care what the Steelers do. This used to be a huge AFC game with playoff implications. The last six times these teams have met, one of them went to the Super Bowl that season. That’s not likely to continue in 2013.

Colts at Texans – Check out my preview for this one here. It has GOTW potential, but frankly any outcome wouldn’t surprise me in a divisional game between teams coming off the bye. I’m not sure I watched the Colts play a live football game without Reggie Wayne since the 1995 AFC Championship in Pittsburgh.

2013 NFL Week 9 Predictions

Beaten by a safety in overtime. I knew picking Cincinnati was a risk, but I didn’t expect that type of finish. So that’s the first TNF mistake of the season.

Winners in bold:

Vikings at Cowboys
Falcons at Panthers
Chiefs at Bills
Chargers at Redskins
Saints at Jets
Titans at Rams
Buccaneers at Seahawks
Eagles at Raiders
Ravens at Browns
Steelers at Patriots
Colts at Texans
Bears at Packers

Season results:

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 6: 11-4
Week 7: 10-5
Week 8: 10-3
Season: 80-40

NFL Week 8 Predictions

October 26, 2013 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Notice anything odd about the NFL’s Week 8 schedule? If Thursday’s stinker was any indication, it’s going to be a poor week. It’s literally the worst slate of games I have seen since covering the league on a weekly basis in 2011, and that’s not hyperbole. On paper, does it get any better than Dallas at Detroit? I rest my case.

Some have said the NFL does not like to compete with the World Series, which is going on now in case you didn’t notice. Yet is anyone going to deny that even a terrible collection of NFL games will kick the World Series’ ass in ratings?

“Hell, we’ll put six teams on a bye week, send the Jaguars to London to face the 49ers, put the Rams out to slaughter against Seattle, and even start the week with Greg Schiano in prime time and people will still eat it up.”

The most riveting baseball series in years would still struggle to beat out a host of prime-time games featuring the dreadful 2013 Minnesota Vikings, and don’t worry, the latter is coming. After Josh Freeman’s 33-incompletion night, we get the Vikings again facing the Packers on Sunday. After a trip to Dallas in what is hopefully a low-traffic Heath Evans time slot on FOX, the Vikings return to the big stage with a Thursday night home game against the Redskins in Week 10. Three prime-time games in four weeks. Can’t wait.

Yet in the NFL, where inconsistency thrives, we probably will get a few unexpectedly great games this week. But for most of us, even the worst games are still preferable to watching baseball.

2013 NFL Week 8 Predictions

We’ll see what happens next week with a real challenge, but the undefeated run continues on TNF with a pick of Carolina.

Winners in bold:

Cowboys at Lions
Dolphins at Patriots
Browns at Chiefs
Bills at Saints
Giants at Eagles
49ers at Jaguars
Jets at Bengals
Steelers at Raiders
Redskins at Broncos
Falcons at Cardinals
Packers at Vikings
Seahawks at Rams

Season results:

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 6: 11-4
Week 7: 10-5
Season: 70-37

NFL Week 7 Predictions

October 19, 2013 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

As much as anyone thinks they have an understanding of the NFL, the game always produces some wild results few ever would have expected. That’s a big part of the league’s popularity.

When I look at Week 7, I see a few possibilities of “Any Given Sunday” taking place.

It would be so San Diego for the Chargers, after getting back to 3-3, to lose on the road to the worst team in football.

It would be so Jets/Patriots for Rob Gronkowski to make his long-awaited return and score a couple of touchdowns.

It would be so Ron Rivera to blow another fourth-quarter lead just when the Panthers have a schedule favorable enough to get to 4-3 by Thursday night.

It would be so Mike Munchak/bizarro Titans to stifle Colin Kaepernick, after the long travel from San Francisco, and get an upset win.

It would be so NFL if Case Keenum leads the Texans to an upset win over undefeated Kansas City, and with Alex Smith being the one who throws the pick six this week.

It would be so NFL if with everyone picking the Broncos to win, the game ends with an Adam Vinatieri field goal with 0:00 left as Andrew Luck leads his 10th game-winning drive to end Denver’s perfect season and Peyton Manning’s return.

On paper very little of this should make sense, but that’s why they play the games, and that’s why we watch no matter how awful the matchup looks.

I’ll be watching Ravens/Steelers in the late afternoon slot. While I would love to say the Steelers get the win to get back into things this year, I see a significant mismatch in the trenches. Having watched a lot of Baltimore this year, I just feel like Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil are going to eat Pittsburgh’s tackles alive and Le’Veon Bell will have few holes to run through. There are big passing plays to be had on both sides, but I expect Joe Flacco to have more time to get to them and for Pittsburgh’s secondary to make more mistakes in covering them. Still, a low-scoring game is likely.

I’ll enjoy the night game, Judgment Day, but I really only see two possible outcomes:

Peyton Manning dominates his former team (think 4-5 TD passes) and Von Miller has a nice return as the Broncos win easily (41-21).
The Colts sustain long drives (rank No. 2 in plays per drive) to limit Manning’s possessions and are able to pull the game out late as Luck gets the ball last (31-28 Colts win).

I’ll try to enjoy the game either way, because the next two doses of football include Vikings at Giants and Panthers at Buccaneers. And yet we watch…

2013 NFL Week 7 Predictions

Moved to 7-0 on TNF with a pick of Seattle. However, there are many more challenging games this week.

Winners in bold:

Bills at Dolphins
Chargers at Jaguars
Bears at Redskins
Bengals at Lions
Patriots at Jets
Rams at Panthers
Cowboys at Eagles
Buccaneers at Falcons
49ers at Titans
Browns at Packers
Ravens at Steelers
Texans at Chiefs
Broncos at Colts
Vikings at Giants

Season results:

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 9-5
Week 6: 11-4
Season: 60-32

Andrew Luck vs. Peyton Manning: Judgment Day (Terminator Spoof)

October 18, 2013October 18, 2013 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Twenty million human lives watched football played by quarterback machines on October 20, 2013. The survivors of the game called it Judgment Day. They were exposed as either a Peyton Manning fan or an Indianapolis Colts fan.

Irskynet, the computer which controlled the machines, sent two terminators back through time. Their mission: to destroy the leader of the fourth-quarter comeback statistic revolution…John Elway.

Johnny Unitas, the first machine model, was the premiere quarterback in the two-minute drill. How else can you explain his machine-like efficiency under pressure? But Unitas never received any credit for his record number of comebacks.

The first terminator was programmed to strike at John Elway in April 1983. This way he could never make fools of the Colts in the NFL draft and never set the franchise back for years. The T-800 terminator was…too smart for his own good. He seized the opportunity to became the new comeback king.

The attack failed…so the team relocated to Indianapolis and eventually wound up with Jeff George.

The second was set to strike at John after his retirement. This advanced T-1000 model was established as a student at Stanford, which is Elway’s alma mater. He even had help from another Irskynet machine, code name “Captain Comeback”. The two machines became more interested in winning games and growing a neck beard, so this too failed.

The Resistance was able to send a lone warrior. A protector for John. He proved to be…unreliable.

Little did Jim Irsky, owner of Irskynet, know that the first terminator was reprogrammed by John to become his protector in 2012. This took place shortly after Irskynet shut down the T-800 model due to a neck malfunction. John wooed the T-800 to Denver to find success he could never dream of under Irskynet’s watch in Indianapolis.

Each side had an expensive terminator. The T-1000 was given another shot by Irskynet. Some modifications, perfected by a stroke of luck, like added mobility and shape-shifting to take the form of Peyton Manning. John Elway, Andre the Giant or any solid metal object made the new model a favorite in town. However, as Judgment Day approached, many in Indianapolis were torn over how to react to the event. The football game was one thing, but either John Elway or Jim Irsky were going to perish given the outcome. This war would end here.

Who plays football next to a steel mill anyway?

October 20, 2013 came and went. The T-1000 put up a good fight early, but you can’t keep the original down for long. The T-800 led a record-tying 51st game-winning drive, which sunk Irsky into a vat of molten steel, silencing him once and for all. (The choice of molten steel was an Abby’s hat pick, by the way).

It was not until hours after the game that everyone realized the two could still meet in the playoffs to really settle things, but the reign of Irskynet was over, and the world was a better place for it. The T-800 protected John for two more years before shutting down for the last time, going out on top. The T-1000 aged rapidly, playing the football coach in the 2028 remake of The Faculty.

Analysis: There should be three great quarterbacks in the building on Sunday night. There are not three great films in the Terminator series.

I’ll be back, unless you hated this.

Me Philip, Me…Happy?

October 17, 2013 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Philip Rivers has been caught giving us many great expressions over the years, though most have come after humiliating defeat. To show I’m not biased, here’s Philip after what Jerry Jones would call a glory-hole day: beating the Colts.

I guess that’s happy. Here’s the slower version:

NFL Week 6 Predictions

October 12, 2013 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Your chaos ain’t me. – Orchid

Another interesting week in the books. So what am I looking forward to this week?

Pick 6 – If Matt Schaub throws a pick six for the fifth game in a row, his tenure in Houston may be over tomorrow unless the rest of the game is phenomenal. He has to play well against a poor defense at home.

QB Change – I don’t think Thad Lewis is much of a downgrade from EJ Manuel at QB for Buffalo. What I want to see is Cincinnati win a game they are “supposed to” win and not have another letdown after last week’s big New England victory.

Geno Brooks? – Geno Smith makes big plays, but he sometimes makes them for both teams like Aaron Brooks used to do for New Orleans. If Geno and the Jets can avoid turnovers again against Pittsburgh, the Steelers will set a new record by going 5 games without a takeaway to start a season. I already feel sick over my pick on this one.

Panthers at Vikings – Heavy hearts in Minnesota after the tragic news surrounding Adrian Peterson’s 2-year-old son. He’s expected to play and I think you’ll see the team rally around him with a big effort. Carolina was on the other end of one of those games last year against Kansas City when Jovan Belcher did his heinous act.

Point Spread – With the spread at 28 points for Jacksonville at Denver, this is the biggest spread since the 1970 merger. If I was a betting man, I wouldn’t touch this one. While very possible Denver pulls it off, that’s a monster margin for a NFL game, even if it’s Peyton Manning on his most dominant streak ever and the Jaguars looking like the worst team in 20 years. Garbage time alone makes you cautious about this one as I think Denver may call off the dogs earlier than usual. Yes, Denver’s scored as many points in each of its last two games as Jacksonville has all season, but isn’t 45-17 (no Blaine Gabbert!) reasonable for a final score? That still would only be a push.

This will be Peyton Manning’s 250th start. In the previous 249, he has 14 victories by 29+ points (5.6% of games; 8.3% of his wins).

Spread aside, Denver needs just 33 points to set the scoring record through six games of a season. That’s one bet that I’d gladly make on happening.

Manning needs two touchdown passes to set the new record for most through six games. That’s also a given.

Note: I compiled these tables myself through a series of searches on Pro-Football-Reference. If you want to cite them, do the right thing and use a reference.

2013 NFL Week 6 Predictions

If only all games were as easy as Thursday games. Picking the Bears, who picked Eli, makes me 6-0 on TNF.

Winners in bold:

Rams at Texans
Bengals at Bills
Raiders at Chiefs
Lions at Browns
Steelers at Jets
Eagles at Buccaneers
Panthers at Vikings
Packers at Ravens
Jaguars at Broncos
Titans at Seahawks
Cardinals at 49ers
Saints at Patriots
Redskins at Cowboys
Colts at Chargers

Season results:

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 9-6
Week 5: 9-5
Season: 49-28

How to Blatantly Plagiarize an NFL Article

October 11, 2013August 20, 2019 ~ Scott ~ 11 Comments

Tony Romo did something dramatic on Sunday against Denver, which of course everyone has something to say about. I have written plenty about Romo and the Dallas Cowboys in the past, which has often been well-received. Maybe I should have done it as a book so I could have better protection of my work after the most blatant example of plagiarism I have ever seen was brought to my attention this morning.

I was linked to an article written by Chris Arnold on CBS Fort Worth/Dallas from 10/9/2013. If you know my work very well, you may recognize a lot of familiar lines. It’s because this thing is literally loaded with copying and pasting directly from my Romo article on Cold, Hard Football Facts from July 12.

Now I’m always flattered when someone uses my data/facts in an article, but usually the person has the decency to cite me as the source either by name and/or link. You know, the professional way to do things. I never heard of Chris Arnold before this evening. He’s never contacted me. He sure didn’t seem to think there might be something wrong about this.

If it was just a paragraph in a long article, I wouldn’t care much at all. That happens in this business. But as I’m about to show, this thing was literally a copy-and-paste job with the audacity to call the work his own “Next-Level Analysis”. Oh I have already e-mailed CBS DFW to have it removed (Update: it was removed sometime in the morning or early afternoon), but here’s a picture of the article header just for keepsake:

Hey that’s nice. Nearly 10,000 likes on Facebook and over 700 tweets. Must be good to have a big company that feels like it can do as it pleases. Sure, I’m always ripping on CBS for their awful collection of TV series, but no writer should be ripped off this badly.

I’ve given the links to the articles for comparison. Now I’m going to show just how much is a rip off of my work by pasting Arnold’s paragraphs, word for word and comparing them to mine from CHFF. I will put his work in red and mine (from JULY) in just bold.

ARNOLD: Damned Tony Romo! Because he’s the quarterback for America’s Team, where Jerry Jones sets the bar at “Super Bowl or bust” every season. Romo is damned if he does or damned if he doesn’t.

KACSMAR: Romo is the NFL’s best modern-day example of “damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t.”

ARNOLD: The problem is this, Romo is held to a ridiculously high standard that no other quarterback is held to. Nothing short of a Super Bowl MVP season would make detractors realize Romo is a very good quarterback on a not so good team. The bottom line is Romo can never be a Super Bowl MVP without a better team around him. Period.

KACSMAR: Nothing short of a Super Bowl MVP season would make detractors realize this is a really good quarterback on a not so good team. The problem is Romo can never be a Super Bowl MVP without a better team around him.

ARNOLD: For “Next Level Analysis”, let’s check the numbers:

We know Romo isn’t a bus driver. He has thrown for over 300 yards a total of 41 times and has 51 games with a passer rating over 100.0 (minimum 15 attempts). His 7.94 yards per attempt is the seventh highest in NFL history. He’s not conservative..

KACSMAR: We know Romo isn’t a caretaker. He has thrown for 300 yards a total of 40 times and has 48 games with a passer rating over 100.0 (minimum 15 attempts). His 7.94 yards per attempt is the seventh highest in NFL history.

Kacsmar 10/11/2013 note: The cutest thing here? He added the 500-yard game to get to 41 and the three 2013 games with a rating over 100, but apparently updating the YPA to 7.95 was too difficult of a calculation.

ARNOLD: Romo has seven straight seasons with a passer rating of at least 90.0 (minimum 200 attempts). Only Steve Young (1991-98) and Peyton Manning (2003-10) have ever done that. Romo’s 95.6 passer rating is fifth all time.

KACSMAR: Romo has seven straight seasons with a passer rating of at least 90.0 (minimum 200 attempts). Only Steve Young (1991-98) and Peyton Manning (2003-10) have ever done that. Romo’s 95.6 passer rating is fifth all time.

ARNOLD: In the only season Romo had a top 10 defense (2009), he won a playoff game. Coincidence? Hmm… Maybe he needs a better team around him? He’s historically productive, efficient, wins more than he loses and he has the rare skills to buy time in the pocket and make big plays.

KACSMAR: In the one season Romo had a top 10 defense (2009), he won a playoff game. That’s probably not a coincidence.

He’s historically productive, efficient, wins more than he loses and he has rare skills to buy time in the pocket and make big plays.

ARNOLD: Tony Romo has the franchise record for most come from behind victories with 18. Yep, more than Aikman, Staubach and Meredith. Still not good enough, huh? How about this fact: Romo has the 2^nd most 4^th quarter comeback wins in the NFL since 2011 with 9! Only Eli Manning had more with 10. You want more? Romo has 9 game-winning drives (3rd behind Eli’s 11 and Matt Ryan’s 10) since 2011.

KACSMAR: The facts show Dallas as a competitive, sometimes clutch team in recent seasons. Since the original look at Romo’s history in the clutch from nearly two years ago, all he’s done is the following:

Led nine fourth-quarter comeback wins (2nd behind Eli Manning’s 10) since 2011.
Led nine game-winning drives (3rd behind Eli’s 11 and Matt Ryan’s 10) since 2011.

Romo’s five comebacks in 2012 are a franchise record for a season. His 18 career fourth-quarter comeback wins set the new Cowboys record, surpassing Troy Aikman (16) and Roger Staubach (15).

ARNOLD: In fact, Romo became the first quarterback in team history to lead 3 consecutive comebacks and game-winning drives in Weeks 13-15. The 9-point comeback Romo led in Cincinnati was the only time the Bengals allowed 20 points in their final nine games. He followed that up with a 14-point comeback in the final 4:45 to force overtime with New Orleans before going on to lose 34-31. But all everyone remembers is the last game against the Redskins and his last pick.

KACSMAR: Romo became the first quarterback in team history to lead three consecutive comebacks and game-winning drives in Weeks 13-15. He followed that up with a 14-point comeback in the final 4:45 to force overtime with New Orleans before going on to lose 34-31.

The nine-point comeback Romo led in Cincinnati was the only time the Bengals allowed 20 points in their final nine games.

But it’s that Week 17 disappointment on another big, national stage that people are going to remember.

ARNOLD: Like clockwork, Romo had one of his worst moments when the Nielsen ratings were at their highest. His interception late in the fourth quarter with Dallas trailing 21-18 was a killer. All the hard work put in, all the successful drives wasted with one snap. And like that, Romo further securing his ridiculous national choker status.That’s Romo’s problem. He’s good enough, often great even, to put Dallas in positions to do something, but it just seems like the errors come when everyone in the nation’s watching.

KACSMAR: Like clockwork, Romo had one of his worst moments when the Nielsen ratings were at their highest. His interception late in the fourth quarter (against that same blitz Washington kept using) with Dallas trailing 21-18 was a killer.

All the hard work put in, all the successful drives were wasted with one snap. Romo just further secured his national choker status.

This continues to be Romo’s problem. He’s good enough, often great even, to put Dallas in these positions to do something, but it just seems like the errors come when everyone’s watching.

ARNOLD: Nobody cares that the Cowboys started last season 3-5, that Romo led the Cowboys from a 23-0 deficit to the Giants, only to lose the greatest comeback win in team history by the size of Dez Bryant’s fingers. Or that they lost on the final play of the game against eventual champion Baltimore on a missed Dan Bailey field goal 31-29. Those games, like the Denver game this season, do nothing to boost Romo’s reputation because they are all losses.

KACSMAR: While many bash Dallas for choking, the Cowboys were a very resilient team last season after starting 3-5. The only reason they were in playoff contention in Week 17 was a league-high five comeback wins in the fourth quarter in 2012.

Would a team of chokers do that?

Dallas even erased a 23-0 deficit at home to the Giants in Week 8 before losing in the fourth quarter. Dez Bryant was literally inches away from delivering an all-time great game-winning touchdown in that game. When a team like the 49ers went down big at home to the Giants last year, they lost 26-3.

Dallas came up a play short in Baltimore against the eventual champions. Dan Bailey missed a 51-yard field goal with two seconds left in a 31-29 loss.

ARNOLD: Romo’s clutch track record is too good to only remember the bad plays. His records at comebacks and game-winning drive opportunities put him right there, compared to reputation, with today’s current top quarterbacks, especially the likes of Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers.

KACSMAR: Romo’s clutch track record is too good to only remember the bad plays. His records at comebacks and game-winning drive opportunities put him favorably, compared to reputation, among today’s active players (minimum 10 games), especially the likes of Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers

ARNOLD: Let’s take a “Next Level Analysis” look at Romo in the clutch. Tony Romo has 19 career game wining drives since he became a starting quarterback. Looking deeper, he has 10 turnovers in 27 games that the game winning drive failed. Sounds like a choke huh? Welp, let’s look at Phillip Rivers who also became a starter in 2006. Rivers has 22 turnovers in 36 game winning drive failures. That’s 10 vs 22! Also, Rivers was 2-19 in game winning drives going into this season. Who’s the better quarterback?

KACSMAR: We have yet to fully sink our teeth into the choking dog Rivers has become, but just consider these incredible facts:

Rivers has gone an unfathomable 2-19 (.095) at game-winning drive opportunities since losing in the 2009 playoffs to the Jets.
In those 19 losses, Rivers has turned the ball over 16 times (11 interceptions and five lost fumbles) in the fourth quarter or overtime with a 0-8 point deficit.
In his last 27 games (close or not), Rivers has 13 turnovers in clutch situations.

In Romo’s 27 losses with a failed game-winning drives in his career, he has a total of 10 turnovers (nine interceptions, one lost fumble) in clutch situations.

Even if we count the infamous botched snap on the field goal in Seattle, that’s 11, or two fewer for his career than Rivers has had since October 23, 2011. It has been uncanny how Rivers turns the ball over with such consistency in these situations the last few years.

Both quarterbacks made their first start in 2006. Rivers has a total of 22 turnovers (16 interceptions and six lost fumbles) in the clutch in 36 losses with a failed game-winning drive. So it’s 22 against 10. There is no comparison here.

ARNOLD: It’s no different for Aaron Rogers and Drew Brees, who each won a Super Bowl when their defense stepped up with several critical takeaways and stops during the postseason.

KACSMAR: That is no different for Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees, who only won a Super Bowl when their defense stepped up with several critical takeaways and stops in the postseason.

ARNOLD: The national media and pro football fans ignore the fact that Rogers is an amazing 0-18 in 4^th quarter comebacks against teams that are .500 or better in his career! They ignore that Drew Brees has only made the playoffs 5 times in 12 years and has 20 turnovers in clutch drive ending losses (compared to Romo’s 10). Those quarterbacks get the pass because they have a ring. Rivers? His reputation as being clutch is fiction.

KACSMAR: Since they did, the national media ignores the fact that Rodgers is 0-18 at fourth-quarter comebacks against teams .500 or better in his career. They ignore that Brees has made the playoffs five times in 12 years and has 20 turnovers in the clutch in losses.

Those quarterbacks get the pass because they have the “precious” ring. Why someone like Rivers gets a pass is a mystery.

ARNOLD: No one’s trying to put Romo in the Hall of Fame or on the same pedestal as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, but the facts remain that he’s very good and gets held to one of the more ridiculous standards in the league. There are other quarterbacks blowing games more often than Romo, and there aren’t as many giving their team a chance to win as Romo. Yet Romo, who delivers more times in the clutch than many others, is considered a choke artist.

KACSMAR: No one’s trying to put Romo in the Hall of Fame or on the same pedestal as Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, but the facts remain that he’s very good and gets held to one of the more ridiculous standards in the league.

There are other quarterbacks blowing games more often than Romo, and there aren’t as many giving their team a chance to win so often.

ARNOLD: In a league that savors top picks at quarterback, we should be celebrating Romo as one of the best undrafted quarterbacks in NFL history. His success story should be something for all kids who dream of possibly making it in the NFL one day. Instead he gets held to all or nothing standards. Why do we hold Romo to a higher standard than most quarterbacks who are drafted in the first round? It must be a Cowboys bias. I shake my head.

KACSMAR: In a league filled with top 40 picks at quarterback, we should be celebrating Romo as one of the best undrafted quarterbacks in NFL history. His success story should be something young kids hold onto as they dream to make it in the NFL one day.

Instead he gets held to the harshest of standards that not even some recent No. 1 picks who were drafted to be saviors fall under.

ARNOLD (Last paragraph): So to come full circle. Men lie. Women lie. Even media and fans lie. Numbers don’t lie. Tony Romo is one of the most clutch quarterbacks in the NFL today, and with a better team around him he could get a Super Bowl ring and maybe his true reputation will be celebrated. Until then, perception continues to distort reality. Damn.

————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

(This post is over 2,500 words, so that gives you an idea of just how much was stolen)

Numbers don’t lie, but they have an origin and people who actually put in work to come up with them. These aren’t all your everyday numbers one could quickly look up on a stat site either. If CBS wanted my article, they should have paid me to write it. Accepting this as an original work without doing any fact-checking is stunning to me. Makes me wonder if this guy has screwed other people over before.

If Chris Arnold thinks stealing my work and calling it his “Next-Level Analysis” is okay, then I can only say good luck to him when he goes looking for his next job.

Damned if I remove this page any time soon.

NFL Week 5 Predictions and the Touchdown Pass Record

October 5, 2013October 5, 2013 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Short on ranting this week with some Saturday research to do, but let’s quickly look at the passing touchdown record. It seems to be the one in most jeopardy from the potential season-long juggernaut in Denver. Of course it would be Peyton Manning reclaiming the record from Tom Brady (50), which he would have already had if the Colts did not pull him after one series in Week 17 2004.

To earn a touchdown pass, you must have possession of the ball. So I took the drive stats for Manning ’04 (and four games into 2013) and Brady ’07 to see how many drives each had and how many they sat out. Kneel down drives are excluded from all stats.

(QB1 = Manning or Brady)

The numbers are eerily similar with Brady throwing one more touchdown on one more drive. Manning did sit out twice (16) as many drives as Brady (8) that season. It’s still very early, but he’s actually had 11 drives per game this year, which could give him a better shot at record volume. The 2007 Patriots were more efficient at scoring than the 2004 Colts, though you can see the Colts had more missed field goals and Manning’s skill players fumbled five times compared to none for Brady, who had 12 total turnovers (Manning with 11). The 2013 Broncos are scoring TDs at a better rate than the record-setting 2007 Patriots, but again, it is still very early.

The 2013 Broncos have already punted 7 times (BAL) and 5 times (Giants) in games, which did not happen to the 2004 Colts until they had 6 punts against the Ravens in Game 14. So it hasn’t been all perfect in Denver, though if Manning continues to get closer to 11 possessions per game, then you can see the potential this offense has. The best defense against Denver has often been itself. Cut down on some of the mistakes and some records will likely fall this season.

2013 NFL Week 5 Predictions

The Thursday streak continues at 5-0 with my pick of Cleveland. This week’s schedule looks very enticing.

Winners in bold:

Lions at Packers
Eagles at Giants
Chiefs at Titans
Ravens at Dolphins
Saints at Bears
Jaguars at Rams
Seahawks at Colts
Patriots at Bengals
Panthers at Cardinals
Broncos at Cowboys
Texans at 49ers
Chargers at Raiders
Jets at Falcons

Season results:

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 12-4
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 9-6
Season: 40-23